[closing bell ringing] u.s. stocks fluctuating throughout the day with the s&p closing slightly higher and the dollar lower. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" progress but slow progress -- the u.s. economy spins gently. what is a mean for the market? alix: mood matters -- why such a gap between the performance of americansets and social moods? we will ask the experts. joe: linkedin is about to announce its earnings as a push into education. begin withnt to stocks -- a wishy-washy day across the board. i should point out the dow closed between -- close above the 200 -- it closed below the 200 day moving average. onlities the best performer the s&p. you can tell it is a risk off

kind of day. joe: you called it wishy-washy, i call it boring. we have had a lot of exciting days in recent days but this was not one of them, even with the economic data. alix: the dollar is at a four-month high. joe: commodities continue to slide and even china only fell by 2%. alix: i want to take a deep dive into my bloomberg terminal and look at inventory. here is what we are looking at -- this is the first quarter $112.8e which was about billion. this is a 110 billion dollar increase, so you are looking at the largest two quarter cannulation in at least 15 years. why does that matter? if you have a lot of inventory, are you going to make new stuff? it's the something about factory orders and the state of the economy working. joe: we have breaking news.

linkedin earnings are outed julie hyman is breaking them down. julie: i'm still trying to go through this statement that adjusted earnings the shares coming in at $.55, 25 or send above the average analyst estimate. you are just hearing from paul sweeney on bloomberg intelligence and there was a lot of pressure after a disappointing quarter last time around as linkedin was affected by the stronger dollar and weaker core business than it had been anticipating. it looks like the company is ray -- is raising it full forecast. increase, and increase nonetheless. and increase more significant in its were cast for earnings. it looks like it is forecasting earnings-per-share of $2.19. the quarter the

company has just reported, revenue is coming in significantly above estimates. million is what analysts had been anticipating. this looks like a recovery quarter and you see the shares move up by about 12% in the after-hours. remember after the last word, shares fell on disappointment over its numbers. i'm looking at electronic arts also reporting and looking at the guidance for 2016. julie: what caught my eye was the guidance for the current quarter. earnings per share of $.40 whereas analyst were looking for $.66, so quite disappointing on that front. i'll give you an update in just a few minutes. thank you for bringing those down -- for breaking those down. with the alley, -- with us now,

we have peter out water with some pretty contrary and calls about the market. long on gold, short u.s. equities -- my jaw hit the floor when i saw the long gold call. peter: i'm probably the only person who comes on -- who comes on and gets excited when their job drops. those are the reactions i look for. it should bring back all sorts of insecurities at laughter and amusement. alix: what do you mean when you say you are looking for sentiment? peter: does everyone agree on the market dory. market stories are not based on fact, they are based on how we have taken information and regurgitating one to each other. what you find is at bottom of the story is really all. it is something everyone agrees

with, and to be an outlier and have an opposing view of that tori is to be socially exiled from the herd. joe: let's talk about some examples. you are fond of finding headlines indicative of the social mood. you are breaking down some that and they read outperform and buy it. what does that tell you? peter: extrapolation, particularly at the peak gets extreme and collective. when everybody says it is going to the moon, i'm the guy who says get ready, it is owing to crash. when you see something like that, what do you want to do? sell those stocks? peter: yes.

in happier they are to get on this, the more clear is that sentiment is reaching an extreme. we are looking at all the coverage from silicon valley getting a lot of attention. what does this make you want to do? peter: when it reaches the cover, you never see magazines but something controversial on the front. someone like time or newsweek, their stories have been notorious. the economist, when it something on there, that is the financial community has in race to. with silicon valley, i have noticed that if you were to go on to the new york times website, you would see they are talking about silicon valley or today than they ever talked about it in the peak of the.com bubble. everybody is on board, including the media. have any other

favorite historical magazine covers that mark a turning point? peter: the first week of october, 2011, the economist without an image that looks like the vortex. until policymakers do something about the economy, in big, old red letters are "be afraid." that was the best high signal i had ever seen. joe: another one that you pointed out -- the headline was we just got the most optimistic chart in america. so what is janet yellen waiting for us mark this story really stuck out to you. what was it about story? peter: it is the most optimistic story out there. so people feel great about it. what i saw when i looked at the chart was every autumn -- these the lowers claims, so

it went, every major bottom tied to a major peak in the energy market. so of course, the economic news is great. this chart said to me not only big, but it's be going to be significant because the line goes to the bottom of the graph. it's another measure of extreme sentiment. what is your success rate with this kind of investing? peter: re: hi. for example, with my old call, we get a meaningful bounce, but it's a bottom, not the bottom. i am indifferent to that. make 10% or 20% on a bounce, you should do that. what you see with extremes in sentiment are these

opportunities to take advantage of everybody being off-site and this one is a collective environment where everybody is believing rates are going up, therefore the dollar is going to be stronger and therefore emerging-market current these are going to be weaker. there's a lot connected to this one single event in janet yellen raising interest rates. you look at the social mood and look at the market, what keeps you up at night? peter: that the social mood is completely disconnected from this market. if i look at measures of economic confidence, i see that been 2009, the mood has decidedly negative. here we are seven years from the banking crisis and economic confidence is negative. that is a complete disconnect from what is happening on wall

street. the concern i have is how mainstreet feels drives clinical decisions, it drives other economic decisions and spent decisions. the fact that donald trump is soaring in popularity right now -- if you were to look at economic confidence at its collapsing, of course he's going to be popular. alix: so this is a buy signal in the market estuary peter: i'm concerned economic confidence is deteriorating while the markets continue to be in euphoric euphoric for up -- territory. joe: which way does it resolve? peter: you can only maintain an artificial market for so long and then main street takes over. they put in politicians mainstream a not take -- may not care for. you saw that in greece. confidence collapses.

the: coming up, amid monti's route, the biggest miner of met coal is said to be filing for bankruptcy. it could file as early as monday. who stands to lose their shirt over this when we come back. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" isx: alpha natural resources planning to file for bankruptcy, so who loses everything? holders.red on

they are trading at cents on the dollar. it looks really a. in bankruptcy court, the ones who take precedent are the states because they need money from alpha. the bond holders come second. joe: so this is just another depressing tori because everything is getting caught in the downdraft. and everyone is getting squeezed a little bit because of the way they end up nine and get is changing and the states are putting the screws to them. earningsave a bunch of out after the bell, so let's go to julie hyman. julie: things are a little happier in social media land. forecast --sing its it looks like some of the changes it has been making to it salesforce are starting to bear some rate after it did not last quarter. they also acquired an education

website. 38%,t solutions revenue up marketing revenue up 30%. the talent solutions piece is the largest one and the one that has been working the best. looking at electronic arts, the company's earnings the estimates here. it the second quarter numbers that are falling short. the company has been transitioning to more online playing then selling the physical games, so unmixed picture here for ea. finally, we want to talk about amgen. and lower operating expenses let it to not only be but raise its revenue and earnings forecast for the year. alix: so what you miss in today's gdp announcement? michael mckee is with us to tell

us about it. michael: feel like you are doing more and accomplishing less estuary the numbers seem to suggest that is the case. the government re-benchmark the gdp numbers and growth was lower over the time, which means productivity was lower because we the number of workers increase and unemployment go down, so more people were actually accomplishing less, and that has some implications for the market and the fed. dsa -- be available to how we could reconcile this could reconcile the difference between employment and economic growth, but now it seems like the puzzle is more extreme. michael: we are recognizing it in that it should have higher. we're not in companies that money into the kind of enhancing investment at least two and we saw decline in business investment in the most recent order, suggesting that what we

will have is a long time of slow product to the growth. what that means for the fed is we did the inflation come sooner because potential growth is lower. now productivity, which for the past five years has been close to zero, it is that low than inflation might start sooner, but conversely, the fed could argue that we don't have to raise rates to choking off because potential growth is so low, so we can start layer, which brings another question to the debate. alix: what does that do for the --k half of the year mark back half of the year? michael: the real question is do businesses get involved? government did not contribute much that that is a wildcard. you never know inventory is a

real problem. we grew 110 billion for the second quarter -- that's a lot of the thing around that did not get sold because growth was low and might mean we have to make less stuff and that is something to keep an ion -- keep an eye on. joe: we have had these trends for a while and it nation has kicked in, despite the decline in all of these things. why aren't we getting inflation if the radio are all there? michael: there are a lot of reasons, but localization, sorting out cost than keeping them lower -- the idea that we are seeing lower energy prices is a big contributor to the whole thing. companies don't have pricing pressure. there hasn't been wage pressure either. all of those things may be

coming to an end. we are starting to see some vices go up and some wages go up and it could ignite were quickly if potential growth is lower for -- is lower. exercise studio that started as a single 31 by studio in manhattan nine years ago -- how many rides it do in 2014? alix: that is where you work out? joe: i don't work out. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe weisenthal.

"what'd you miss?" alix: we were talking about soul cycle. joe: the company has grown rapidly, to 2.9 million rides. alix: you were not one of those. our producer blows it. she was so excited about the idea that she cheered. joe: with us now to discuss technical charts is a technical analyst and we want to start off ,ith a series of charts particularly a long-term chart of gold. what do we see? guest: this is an interesting chart. remember in 2009, the. 1000 is a big deal. once we roque out in 2009, we almost doubled from there, so that was a powerful move. the market has a lot of memory

there, though for a long time he figured that was ultimate target and that's the lie should turn into some kind of demand. is theundamentally, that issue everyone is talking about. what about short term? guest: short-term, we recently had a nice break. we are in the context of a major air market, so when things in a down trend things to consult -- tends to consolidate -- that's what we have over the last couple of weeks. if you take the most recent exactlyhat takes us to 1087, so that's an important level. it has clearly found support, so i would fade strength into that 11:40. or, if we rollover from here,

which would be the more bearish set up and we start closing low 1087, you can get aggressively short. joe: let's talk about the treasury etf. what is going on here? this is one of the most powerful moves coming into the bond market. every economist said interest rates were going up. quite the opposite happened. we had one of the worst years in interest rates and we have in trading this for years. one of the most powerful sentiment unwinds we have seen in your. we had a monster move and hit an all-time high at getting of this year. ,he support level you mentioned that is the retracement of that entire 2014 move. the market recognizes these levels.

the problem is the down trend in the all-time high. i would fade it there tactically and go forward, what we want to 124, 125,rt trading that would signal the market thinks interest rates are going to get slammed. to hit on apple because they have been hitting a resistance level. talk about the numbers. this is a split adjusted chart. the low in that correction was the extension of that, it takes us to 100 $30 and that is where the market started going up and february. i felt it has been dead money ever since. this will show you what the market has done, absolutely nothing. it has been dead money. we want to recognize this range and weight.

if it resolves to the upside, we want to own it. the measured move would take you to 145 to if we break down, that is a problem. alix: thank you very much. love some good technical analysis. joe: we will be back.

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: take a look at the exxon numbers -- you are looking at the downstream revenue, the refining revenue, and that is going to help them coming in the first order. they are benefiting from lower -- lower crude.

joe: another thing is russian crude -- they are getting hurt oil and the selloff. that is all for "what'd you miss?" thanks for watching. thanks for watching. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business.

emily: linkedin shares climbing higher in extended trading. we will look at the media giant optimistic forecasts and claims that it cracked china. i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg west. electronic arts gets the boot, but wall street is not impressed. t-mobile path plan to overtake sprint. i sit down with the company's ceo, braxton carter.