anchor: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. >> and i am joe weisenthal. ♪ alix: u.s. stocks fluctuating throughout the day with the s&p closing slightly higher and the dollar rose. joe: the question is, what did you miss? the u.s. economy expands gently. what does it mean for the markets? such a gap why between the performance of the stock market and americans' social mood?

is about to report its earnings as a social media darling making a progressive push into education. alix: we want to begin with a stocks. it was a wishy-washy day across the board, stocks closing relatively flat. the dow closed below the 200 day moving average. it really flirted with that level all day and closed below it but not a lot of stock movement all in all, with utilities the best performer in the s&p. joe: i would call it boring. we have had a lot of exciting days in recent days. this was not one of them, even with a lot of economic data. alix: the dollar was at a four-month high. felt 2%. china only what is that? alix: it's true. i want to take a look at inventory accumulation, one of the organs of the gdp data we got today.

this is basically the first quarter increase, which was about $112.8 billion. billion about $110 increase. all in all, you are looking at the largest two quarter accumulation in at least 15 years. why does that matter? if you have a lot inventory, are you going to make new stuff? that says a lot about factory orders going forward and the state of the economy working, basically. out.linkedin earnings just julie hyman is on the breaking news desk. lie: what i can tell you is adjusted earnings per share coming in at $.55. that is $.25 above the average analyst's estimate. as you were hearing from paul sweeney of bloomberg intelligence, there was a lot of pressure on linkedin for this quarter after disappointing last time around. lincoln was affected by the stronger dollar as well as we go

to court business than it had been anticipating. it looks like the company is now raising its forecast for the full year in terms of its revenue, looking at $2.94 billion. it was previously forecast 2.90 lead dollars. -- $2.9 billion. in its forecast for earnings for the full year it looks like it is forecasting earnings per share of $2.19. the estimate before was for $1.94. the company has reported, revenue coming in significantly above estimates, nearly $712 million, $680 million is what analysts had been anticipating. this looks like a recovery quarter for linkedin in terms of its reports. you are seeing the shares move up by 12% in the after hours straight after linkedin's last report, the shares fell more than 20% over disappointment at its numbers. alix: i'm looking at electronic arts.

we're looking at the guidance for 2016. company's guidance is coming in below estimates. what caught my eye was the guidance for the current quarter. for earnings per share of 40%. analysts were looking for $.66. looking at those earnings and give you an update in a few minutes. joe: thank you, julie. julie hyman, thank you for bringing those down. with us we have peter atwater, the president of financial insights, and has some pretty contrary and calls about the market. peter, thanks for joining us. alix: long on gold, short u.s. equities, short u.s. dollar. my job hit the floor when i saw the long gold call. guest: i'm the only person who comes on where people say they get excited or their jaw drops. as somebody who looks at sentiment, those are the reactions i look for.

it should bring back all sorts of insecurities and laughter and emotion. alix: what does it mean when you say you are looking for sentiment? is,r: what i'm looking for does everyone agree on the market story. market stories are not based on fact. they are based on how we take in information and absorbent and regurgitate it one to another. you find at peaks and bottoms, the story is really simple, it is something everybody agrees with, and to be an outlier and have an opposing view of that story is to be socially exiled from the herd. about sometalk examples. you are fond of finding headlines and magazine covers and tweets that are indicative of the social mood. the first one is a tweet breaking down some recommendations and it said overweight, outperform, outperform, bye, bye. why did that tell you?

peter: the entire analyst community is extrapolating. particularly at the peak, gets extreme and collective. when everybody says it is going to the moon, i am the guy who says get ready, it will crash down. alix: when you see something like that, what do you want to do, sell those stocks? peter: yes. the happier the analysts are, the more eager they are to get on something like this, the clearer it is that sentiment is reaching an extreme. alix: let's take a look at the cover of "the economist," talking about the empire of the geeks, talking about all the coverage we have seen covering silicon valley. what is this make you want to do as an investor? peter: same thing. this says to me when it reaches the cover, everybody agrees. you rarely see magazines put something that is controversial on the front. particularly somebody like week," theirews

cover stories have been the tory us. when "the economist" put something on there, that says that the community has embraced this. particularly with silicon valley, today if you were to go on to "the new york times" website you would see they are talking about silicon valley more today than they ever talked about in the peak of the dot com bubble. everybody is on board with this, including the media. joe: do you have any other favorite historical magazine covers that mark clear turning points? peter: first week of october 2011. the economist puts out there this image that looks like a vortex. until policymakers do something about the economy -- in big, bold, red letters -- be afraid. that to me was the best buy signal i had ever seen. out another one you pointed

in a recent newsletter, a story headlinewrote, the was, "we just got the most optimistic chart in america, so what is janet yellen waiting for?" this story really stuck out to you. one, it's the most optimistic story out there. people feel great about this. what i saw when i look at it, the chart, was that -- these are jobless claims. every major went, bottom tied to a major peak in the equity market. and so of course the economic news is great at the very top of the market and this chart said to me, not only is this going to be a big top, this will be a very significant top because the line goes to the bottom of the graph area -- graph. it is another measure of extreme sentiment. alix: how do you measure your

success rate? peter: the success rate at major extremes is high. the risk to me with my gold call is that we get a meaningful bounce but it is a bottom, not the bottom. i'm in different to that. if you can make as an investor 10% or 20% or 15% on a bounce, you should do that. what you see with extremes in sentiment are these opportunities to take advantage of everybody being offside. this one is a collective environment where you have everybody believing that rates are going up, therefore the dollar is going to be stronger, therefore commodities will be weaker, therefore emerging-market currencies will be weaker. there is a lot connected to this one single event in janet yellen raising interest rates. joe: when you look at the social mood right now and you look at

the market, what keeps you up at night? peter: the fact that the social mood is completely disconnected from the market. if i look at measures of economic confidence, i see that mood has been decidedly negative. here we are on the seven years from the banking crisis, and economic confidence is negative. that is a complete disconnect from what is happening on wall street. the concern i have is how mainstreet feels drives political decisions, it drives other economic decisions, investment decisions. is fact that donald trump soaring in popularity right now, if you were to look at economic confidence that is collapsing, of course he is going to be popular. alix: so this is like a big buy signal in the market, is what you are saying? i'm concerned that

economic confidence is deteriorating while the markets continue to be in euphoric territory. joe: historically when the two diverge, which way does it resolve? peter: two main street. you can only create an artificial market for so long and then mainstreet takes over. they put in politicians that wall street may not care for. you saw the in greece. confidence collapses and tsipras is elected. alix: hence the long gold. joe: thank you, peter atwater. alix: amid the commodities route, the biggest miner of u.s. coal is set to file for bankruptcy. alpha natural resources could file as early as monday. who stands to lose their shirts over this when we come back? ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: alpha natural resources is planning to file for bankruptcy. who loses everything? second lien secured bondholders. they are trading at $.15 on the dollar. it looks really ugly. whonkruptcy court the ones take presidents are the states because they actually need money from alpha to fix up the land they may have hurt while mining for coal. the bondholders come second. joe: this is another depressing story in coal land, because everything is to some extent getting caught in the downdraft? alix: yes, and everybody is getting squeezed because of the

way they end up financing for fixing up the lands and changing, and the states are putting the screws to them. ouch, those bond traders. joe: let's go to julie hyman for a recap. things are happier in social media land than coal land. linkedin coming out with earnings that beat estimates and raising its forecast as well. it looks like some of the changes it has been making to its sales force are starting to bear some fruit after it did not last quarter. it also acquired an education website called linda. telecoms solutions, revenue up 38 percent. market solutions revenue up 32%. premium subscriptions revenue up 32%. at electronic arts prayed the cup and a's earnings did beat estimates. it is second quarter numbers that are falling short. the cup and he has been transitioning to more online

playing than selling the y hascal game -- compan been transitioning to more online playing than selling the physical game. , higher sales of the company, lower operating expenses lead it to not only beat the raises revenue and earnings forecast for the year. joe: thank you, julie hyman. alix: "what'd you miss?" michael mckee is with us to tell us. it's about u.s. productivity. feel like you are doing more and accomplish in less these days? the government went back and re-benchmark the gdp numbers for the past three years and growth period,r over that time which means productivity was lower. we saw the number of workers increase. more people were actually accomplishing less. that has applications for the market and the fed.

before this report, be of a was talking about how this could solve the puzzle -- b of a was talking about his this could -- this could solve the puzzle. what is going on? what it unfortunately means is we are not seeing companies put money into the kind of productivity enhancing investments like they used to and we saw a 6/10 decline in business investment in the most recent quarter. that's a that what we will have is a long period of slow growth. what that means for the fed is we could see inflation come sooner because potential growth is lowered. potential growth is the growth of the labor force and we know that is falling. productivity, which for the past five years has been close to zero -- if it is that low, inflation might start sooner, but conversely the fed could too argue that we don't have

raise rates as high to choke it off because potential growth is so low, so we could start later. that brings another question to the hole september debate. alix: it does indeed. what does that do for the back half of the year? michael: at this point we are set up for a better back half of the year because the second quarter was better. it raises the starting level. the real question is do businesses get involved. government, it did not contribute much, but that is a wildcard. you never know. we grew inventories 110 billion after 112 billion in the first quarter. that is a lot of stuff sitting around that did not get sold. that might mean we have to make less stuff in the third quarter. joe: i want to go back to the point about potential inflation. you say that with lower productivity and falling labor force, inflation could kick in. we have had these trends for a while and inflation has not kicked in despite the decline in

all these things. why aren't we getting this inflation if the ingredients to the recipe are all there? nobody settled on one particular one, but globalization for one, costs and keeping them lower, the idea that we are seeing lower energy prices is a big contributor to the whole thing, and just in general companies don't have pricing pressure. with unemployment high there has not been wage pressure. all those things may be coming to an end, maybe not energy prices. those things might be coming to an and, and we are starting to see some prices go up, some wages go up, and he could ignite more quickly if potential growth is lower. alix: good stuff, mike. michael mckee, bloomberg's economic editor. joe: coming up, soul cycle filed for an ipo. how many rides did it do in

2014? ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: before the break we talked about soul cycle. joe: the company has been growing rapidly, from 969,000 rides in 2012 to 2.9 million rides in 2014. alix: we were not one of our writers. -- the riders. we're looking at -- joe: with us to discuss technical charts as a technical analyst, and we want to start we want to start off with

a chart of gold, particularly in long-term chart of gold. what do we see? guest: this is an interesting part long-term here. 2008, 2009. remember that key resistance right around 1000 bucks? kept bumping our heads up against that. once we broke out in 2009, 2010, we almost doubled from there. that was a powerful move. the mortgage has a lot of memory there. for a long time we figured that , thate ultimate target overhead supply should turn into some sort of demand and that is why we want to be covering short positions. alix: that is the same issue everyone is talking about, 1000 seems to be that round number. what about short-term? guest: short-term we just recently had a nice break. we are within the context of a major bear markets. with things in the downtrend

tend to consolidate, i'ng to ree direction of the underlying trend. if you take the most recent rally from march to may and you take the 161 extension of that, it takes us to exactly 1087. that was last monday. that is a very important level. it has clearly found support. i would fade strengths into that should turnupport into overhead supply, or if we roll over from here, and we wert closing below 1087, will cover down near 1000. joe: let's talk about the treasury etf. i'm excited about this chart because it has a fun diagonal line. what's going on here? guest: what is the most powerful moves in the history of the bond market. said wall street economist rates are going up in 2015, sell bonds. quite the opposite happened.

we had one of the worst years in interest rates and we have been trading this market for over 200 years. one of the most powerful sentiment unwinds. he is smiling because he loves it is much as i do. we hit a new all-time high at the beginning of this year. i think this key level here, the support level you mention, that is the 61.8% of not she retracement of that entire 2014 move, 100 $15. that helps. the market recognizes these levels. the problem i see is the downtrend from the all-time high. i would be fading there tactically and going forward what we want to see is if tlt can take out that level, start 125, that would signal to us that the market thinks interest rates are going to get slammed. alix: we have to end on apple here because it has been hitting a resistance level. talk us through the numbers. guest: this is a split-adjusted chart. back in 2012, split-adjusted,

that is $100. the low in that 2012, 2013 correction was 55 split adjustment. if you take the 1618 extension of that, it takes is exactly to 130 bucks. that is when the market stopped going up in february. now we will look at a short-term charts and he will show you exactly what the market has done since hitting 129, 130. it has been dead money. we want to recognize this range and just wait. if and when it does result to the upside, it is a buy. you only want to own it if we have taken out those highs. if we break down, that is a problem. alix: good stuff. thank you so much. love some good technical analysis. joe: we will be right back. ♪

alix: do not miss this. exxon mobil earnings out before the bell. take a look at the bloomberg terminal. one of the numbers will help exxon in this quarter. you are looking at the downstream revenue, the refining revenue, and that will help them coming into the first quarter and $45 billion. another thing you don't want to miss, the russian

central bank decision. they have stopped accumulating reserves. the currency is weakening. they are getting hurt by oil. that is all for "what'd you miss?" thanks for watching. ♪

from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: we begin with the new england patriots. they struck back today in response to the ongoing deflate- gate scandal. the team owner address the media in a press conference this morning. >> the decision handed down by the league yesterday is unfathomable to me. i want to apologize to the fans andhe new england patriots tom brady. i was wrong to put my faith in the league.