mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" to hillary clinton's summer friday document dump, thanks a lot, lady. ♪ john: happy national document dump friday. in our lineup -- money and insults. first, the trifecta of hillary clinton's disclosures are out this sizzling summer evening, the temperature in brooklyn is 89 degrees. health records, check. tax statements, check. since 2007, she says her family has paid more than $43 million

in federal taxes. last year, they paid federal and state collectively 45.8%. most of the newsroom analyzing has been devoted to the 2200 e-mails released by the state department today. there is no news about benghazi, but there are communications from senator blumenthal, image consciousness, and "meet the press." about 12% of the pages of the e-mails have been released. mark this is clearly an attempt , to overload your circuits, my circuits. will it work? mark: in part. there will not be much written about any of the three things if they came out on their own, not an summer friday night. the way that the clintons get scrutinized anything in there , that needs scrutiny will get it. john: everybody is still pawing through this stuff in newsrooms all over the country, so it is hard to render judgment.

it does not seem there is anything right now devastating in these e-mails as far as we know. the tax numbers -- a lot to dig in there. the effective tax rates, the amount they gave to charity will not draw criticism or negativity. she is in a pretty good place politically on those fronts. mark: on the health records, she did not release the actual records. she did what most people have done which is a note from her doctor basically. her doctor went into some detail when she had a concussion that drew a lot of conservative interest. a lot of people will question the account. i think the key is not these e-mails which have more color in them, not the health records, it is the details we are still waiting on from some of her financials. john: the notion of the

clintons, her richness, their collective richness, how they talk about it. it has been a problem for them. beyond even the details, there will now be questions and when she is asked, how she answers them may be a problem. mark: by some metrics, probably the largest friday record ever. congratulations brooklyn, you set some sort of record. hot in brooklyn, and also hot in fort lauderdale today and really hot inside the broward county convention center. a hearing for presidential candidates, including hillary clinton who took the stage on jeb bush's home turf. she turned his catchphrase into an attack like and a punchline. mrs. clinton: i don't think you can credibly say everybody has the right to rise and then say you are for phasing out medicare or repealing obamacare. people cannot rise if they cannot afford health care. they cannot rise if the minimum wage is too low to live on. they cannot rise if their

governor makes it harder for them to get a college education. you cannot seriously talk about the right to rise and support laws that denied the right to vote. mark: clinton takes a pretty direct shot at jeb bush. jeb bush plans to go toe to toe. bring down the big jeb bush hammer? here is how he took it to hillary clinton. mr. bush: when president obama says that quote for too long we have been too blind to the way past injustices shape the present, he is speaking the truth. [applause] but, we should be just as candid about our failures in addressing the injustices of a more recent origin. in our cities, we have so many people who have not known anything but poverty. so many young adults with no vision of a life beyond the life they know.

every one of them was promised at least one big break in life in the form of a public school to help them learn who they are and what they could do. mark: so, while jeb bush turned the other cheek, he left the responding to hillary clinton to his spokesman who took to twitter with this response -- "clinton-esque move to pass over a chance to unite in favor of a false cheap shot." john, did secretary clinton execute the play she wanted to execute at the urban league? john: she executed the play she wanted to execute. this signals that she thinks jeb bush is going to be the republican nominee and wants to frame him up. i don't think it is the right play, because it she probably does more to contribute for him to be the nominee when the republican race is far from settled. mark: the more they paint him as a conservative, the more he can tell people he is.

i believe hillary clinton can win this race if she defines him as too conservative for the electorate like obama did to mccain and romney. i think what she did today was smart, aggressive and help her win the nomination and the white house. john: the downside risk -- we are saying the same thing in different ways -- the downside risk is that it helps jeb to have her attacking him when his problem is that other republicans do not consider him conservative enough. it helps him, as you said. there is no doubt that the question -- what is interesting to me is she is running as a quasi incumbent. she is going to be the nominee. mark: she is running negative and jeb bush will be reluctant to do that. john: the other part of this document dump day are those super pac filings that are flooding out. they are in line with everyone's

expectations. the ap reports democratic super pacs pulled in less than 9% of the total super pac cash. one interesting story buried in here is who could write those monster checks. three of the biggest donors gave to ted cruz. robert mercer gave $11 million to help cruz. toby nagabauer gave $10 million. also giving a combined $10 million were texas oil executives, plus another $5 million from his brother. those wilks are pretty generous. what is the takeaway from this flood of super pacs? mark: democrats have to step up to get more super pac donations, particularly hillary clinton. can ted cruz get the people who have given him $10 million-plus to keep giving? bush has taken the $1 million cap off his super pac. finally, scott walker needs to

be playing in this super pac league. he has the support of the rickets family. john: if you look down the list, we had to cut this list off to make it manageable. people gave more than $5 million which is an incredible number. if you look at that range, walker got a number of those checks. rick perry got a few of those checks, too. this is the big first illustration that we all talked about theoretically, that for some these candidates who are not top-tier, this super pac world is a lifeline and it will give some candidates viability when they wouldn't on another basis. mark: if you spend it smart. the walker super pac is unified. the cruz super pac checks are going to four different super pacs. each with a different agenda and point of view. the raising is important. the spending is incredibly important. the kasich super pac -- we reported they got a new 30 second spot in new hampshire. when does jeb start?

coming up, hillary clinton's advisor, strategist, pollster joel benenson of new york, new york will join us. we will ask him about all the data after this word from our sponsors. ♪

friday night. mark: our guest tonight is working hard this friday night. he is hillary clinton's strategist and pollster, joel benenson. thank you for coming in. your candidate is much in the news. you are a former journalist. what would you say about the campaign releasing her health records and tax records and income statements all on a friday night? joel: it is the most expansive transparent release of documents ever. in total with the eight years of

documents on her tax returns, 38 years -- mark: let's see jeb bush do that. why a friday night in july? joel: i think campaigns released documents when they have it ready. it is now july, we wanted to do with early. mark: they didn't do it on a friday on purpose? joel: they released their documents on a friday. john: tax records are one thing when they have the documents ready. the letter from the physician the 1.5 page one could have come , earlier. you will not really try to claim that does not have some tactical intention? joel: if you have documents to release why not do it all at , once? why spread it out? when you want to compare transparency of what secretary clinton has done compared to others, the clintons have

released in detail, itemized where their speaking fees came from, consulting fees. jeb bush said he was setting the standard for disclosure when he did this. he has $19 million in businesses he has not identified. mark: do you challenge him to reveal that? joel: i'm not going to challenge them but i will say if you are , setting the standard for transparency, you want to say we are $19 million came from. mark: they feel very lucky to be so wealthy. is that a potential vulnerability for voters? joel: the clintons feel very blessed to have the success they have. i think voters want to know whether people really get them, whether they will fight for them every day. about whether their kids will get educated, if their incomes will go up. we have a history with anyone -- franklin roosevelt was one of the wealthiest residents we ever

had and did not stand up for the average people -- i think they measure people by what they do, people like them. that is what this election will come down to. john: you are never going to convince me the idea that they released these documents on the same day was pure coincidence? joel: i did not say it was a coincidence. i said we decided to disclose on one day the documents. if we did not release it, you would be sitting here, joel, why didn't you release her health records? is there something wrong with her health? just take it off the table at once. is that ok? john: that is great. i don't believe you at all. i want to talk about the political dimensions around wealth. there is one obvious political dimension where she has been having trouble. i want to talk about it a little more. her unfavorables are really high, like chris christie high.

the other is the trustworthy question. she is underwater. most people find her untrustworthy. the numbers are getting worse and worse. tell us why that is not something that should not concern her. joel: i don't have enough time to ask you guys when you get up for it -- a press release to reported as gospel truth. you guys latch onto it because it gives you something. the poll in iowa and colorado, you should ask the governor of colorado how he feels about the poll. mark: you find different data about her trustworthiness? joel: go to pollster.com, the marist poll where hillary clinton's leading every republican by at least 5-10 points. john: we are talking about the honest and trustworthy.

joel: that is a question i would never ask. i don't think it is well constructed question. what people want to know is not a binomial question about trust, they want to know about who i can count on to get stuff done for me? there is a reason why we are winning -- you want to talk about favorable and unfavorable. go to pollster.com. she is minus four. every republican, the closest one to her is -3. jeb bush is -14 underwater. another thing, you guys are latching on to her. every one of these republicans are significantly worse in their favorable standing than either john mccain was at a comparable point in 2007 or mitt romney in 2011. you should be asking them why do they spend their time swimming underwater compared to their predecessors as opposed to anybody else? john: do you guys try to measure her honest or trustworthiness? in the polling that you do? joel: i'm pretty confident in my polling. i have a pretty good track record on it.

i know what attributes are driving people to vote and we are doing just fine which is why she is leading every republican candidate. mark: i think i understand what you are saying, although i might be wrong. joel: i want not tell you which attributes are most important to voters. mark: are you saying -- you don't like the wording of the questions, but are you saying she could be the nominee and be elected even if people don't find her to be trustworthy? joel: i think that is a flawed question. mark: that is not what people are asking you. favorable and unfavorable is not a flawed question, right? joel: she is doing better than all the republicans in the field. she will be favorable when she is elected president. by the way, i went back-and-forth with you guys in 2011. nate silver is obama toast? , unemployment is high.

mark: that was nate silver, not us. joel: my point is, you guys pick out a number and you think that is that the number. favorable numbers will be higher. mark: when she gets elected? joel: i think people right now at 50-50 can be elected. barack obama was 50-50 and he won. mark: more people are talking about favorable? can she get elected if more people consider unfavorable? joel: i have no idea. john: she has refused to take a position on the keystone pipeline. why? joel: she has been involved as secretary of state in evaluating the pipeline, advising the president on that issue in that role. john: has she taken positions on

different issues. why is this different? joel: she will discuss this when the decision is made. he will offer his position fairly soon. she has been involved very much in evaluating this in a formal process that as secretary of state she had to engage in. , mark: would it be politically better for her to oppose or support it? joel: i always think it is better for candidates to take the position she believes in. she will have that opportunity. she is going to give the u president the opportunity to take his position and make the ruling that he is going to make. she was part of that evaluation process. john: i bet that answer polls very well. mark: come back regularly, maybe every friday. joel: not every friday, but i'll come back. [laughter]

mark: when we come back, more from our donald trump focus group from our new hampshire voters, after this. ♪

john: yesterday, we showed you clips from our donald trump focus group from our new hampshire voters. today, we selected two bonus clips. the first is about whether the donald could run as a third-party candidate or independent candidate. anybody in this room that would be open to supporting donald trump as a third-party/independent candidate? >> no way. john: i want to hear from both sides. >> the only thing that could push them out is the republican establishment and the rnc doing something and actually forcing him out. if that is the case, i'm voting for trump as an independent and that will teach the republicans a lesson. john: for those of you who would never -- who would not support

trump as an independent? >> ross perot. i don't think we are ready as a country for the three party thing. the percentages are too much on the democrat and republican that i think it would screw everything up. john: you think it would help elect a democrat? >> absolutely. >> it would fragment -- >> we don't get these third-party candidates and i think it would be good for the country. >> in new hampshire, we have the libertarian party and they have a few good candidates. the whole system is not big enough to allow them to get any traction. >> if we get 5% of the popular vote for a third party, they become federally recognized and they have to be on the ballot in the state. >> too scary for next year, though. >> we are hoping for the future.

>> it would be awesome one day, but we cannot. we just can't. john: this next clip is about why new hampshire voters think donald trump seems like the man of the people. how is it a guy who is so much more financially successful than anybody in this room, how is it that guy could also feel to a lot of you like he is an average guy, like one of us? as some people put it. how do you square those ideas in your mind? >> because he is not a politician. >> he earned it. he did not inherit it. he is american. he succeeded and he does not get the same health care in congress -- that everybody in congress gets that is separate from everybody else. he is living by our rules.

not the made up rules for the protected politicians. >> i think he was handed a silver spoon. >> he started out pretty good. he went to the best schools. i think it is keeping track of money that puts you in the hierarchy. success -- i'm an extremely successful person in my own mind as we all are. , i'm a reasonably successful person when you compare me to donald trump, not necessarily financially, but that is what you like about a candidate. if you think you have done the right things and he seems to have done the right things and maybe he is right -- i think it is human nature. i think he is a successful person and he has earned it. i'm successful. i earned it. most of the people here have said they are successful and

they earned it. >> i think we are tired of politics as usual and politicians as usual. john: all right, we will be right back with one more clip featuring the great larry king, after this. ♪

john: we have a special message for donald trump -- when you come back on our show, we promise to scarf down a bunch of mentos first. mr. trump: do you mind if i sit back a little bit because your breath is very bad. it really is. has anyone told you that? mr. king: that is how you get the edge. mark: that's how you get the edge. classic. we are on twice a day, 5 p.m.

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