>> with all due respect to people who think countdown clocks are gimmicks, we've got your gimmicks right here. ♪ mark: a staged event, and hillary's mom in center stage. first, the spotlight. shining on vice president joe biden who was the subject of column over the weekend. white house spokesman josh earnest got peppered at his daily briefing today about a potential biden presidential run. but ernest squirmed away like a delaware salmon. i actually have no idea what seafood they eat in delaware. an advisor to beau biden son is joining the draft biden movement

as a fundraiser. you wrote a piece about what all this means. so tell us, if biden gets in what does it all mean, particularly for hillary clinton? john: if he gets in, it will be bad news for hillary clinton. i'm told the odds are less than 50-50 that he will get in. although the way that these leaks came out was designed to send a message that he was looking at it. it will be bad for hillary clinton. starting at the very top, it's bad for hillary clinton in terms of the media dynamic. that is the top line from my piece. hillary is already getting that coverage. mark: biden will make the debate stage more crowded and take some of the steam out of bernie sanders. it will make the debate friendlier for him. counter to your peace and conventional wisdom, i think a joe biden run helps her. john: she's at her best when she

was fighting, she was at her best in 2008. but i think the vote map, bernie sanders could and probably would not beat her. in a three-way race, whereby men clinton are competing for the same vote, that gives bernie sanders a lot better chance to win. mark: i think joe biden might draw some of the anti-hillary vote away from bernie sanders. i think biden might draw way people and diffuse the both that sanders can get, not take away from her. john: you are counter conventional wisdom and my wisdom all day long. what you think about my point about this gives the establishment somewhere to go? that is bad for her. mark: that is the one way biden is a threat. he will still have to be on the playing field and he will get

plenty of scrutiny. i'm not sure the establishment will see him as safer after the scrutiny. john: hillary clinton is spending a million dollars apiece in iowa and new hampshire to show her first television ads. first one is about her mom, and the second one is about her life. >> she was abandoned by her parents at the age of eight, sent from chicago to l.a. to live with grandparents who didn't want her. but people showed her kindness gave her a chance. when she needed a champion someone was there. i think about all the dorothy's all over america who fight for their families, who never give up. she was mistreated, but she never gave up. she taught me to do the same. my mom's life and what she went through our big reasons why standing up for kids and families became such a big part of my life. i believe that when families are strong, america is strong. it's your time. mark: mrs. clinton put out a web video today, this one in support

of planned parenthood. >> these attacks are not new. they are more of the same. we've seen them in wisconsin, where governor walker defunded planned parenthood and left women across the state stranded with nowhere else to turn. we've seen them in florida, where jeb bush funneled millions of taxpayer dollars into abstinence only programs, while gutting funds for crucial family planning programs. and we've seen them in texas, where governor perry drastically cut funding for breast and cervical cancer screenings. and then signed legislation that forced health centers across the state to close their doors in an attempt to wipe out access to state and legal abortions altogether. john: that is a lot of on-screen action today from hillary rodham clinton. what do you think about all that, and which of those two issues matters more? mark: i think her performance is

about as good as she can do. i talked to democrats today who are worried, if that's the best he can do in the ads, basically rerunning thing from the past campaigns, people are worried that is not exciting enough for general election, although it may be enough to win. she's going out strong on the air because they are worried about the republican attacks that are coming in the debate. they worry on television really soon against her. john: i think the reason they play that dorothy rodham carter again and again is because it works, especially with female voters. they need enthusiasm. i think the planned parenthood thing is good politics for her but i agree with you, it's not like she is lighting the street on fire with either of these performances. mark: i believe she has to find a way to reach across to the center. i'm not sure those are the messages to do it. i do think, like i said, that is

as good as she can do. if that is good enough, she will be the next president of the united states, but some democrats say there needs to be something else on the air. today the current president announced that largest regulation of greenhouse gases ever. that would affect coal and pretty much every other form of energy used in the country today. democrats love the plan, republicans hate it. president obama said the stakes are plenty high. president obama: we are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last generation that can do something about it. we only get one home. we only get one planet. there is no plan b. mark: there will be lawsuits galore, a lot of republicans will try to stop this. republicans in congress are denouncing it in no uncertain terms. why is the president announcing these sweeping regulations that

are phased in over many years? john: there's not much time left for him in office, and if he's going to do it he has to do it now. that is the obvious point. i think he feels a little guilty over the fact he did so little on climate change in his first term, and he's trying to make up for lost time. mark: it lays bare the notion of someone who can be post-partisan. energy and environment are two huge issues. he did make some compromises but mostly it's a very confrontational plant. i'm not sure we could find a single republican in plant -- in congress who supports it. john: i think they also fill on the political level that he's playing a strong hand when he's taking the fight to his opponents. mark: i wonder how quickly the courts will address it, and again, he gets phased in over many years. a lot of disputes about what impact it actually would have.

these are tougher and in many ways, tougher rules and he originally proposed. john: thursday's debate in cleveland, jeb bush is addressing an issue that continues to bedevil him immigration. today he detailed his plans to strengthen border security and force immigration laws and crackdown on sanctuary cities. mark, this is a big problem for jeb bush. why's he doing this, and wife he doing it now? mark: emigration will most early come up in new hampshire and in thursday's debate. he wants to talk about specifics not only legal status side but on the enforcement side. he does have some positions about borders that will play to the conservative. so he has things to talk about. john: he's leaning into the

conservative side of his immigration proposal. i just think that i -- i continue to think, i admire the way he is dealing with this issue. as we know, he has walked away little bit from pure citizenship to legal status. that might cause problems in a general election, but generally this republican national -- nomination, he saying i'm going to win with an issue that's important. mark: all of them have hands on immigration that are not totally clean. in the end, jeb bush will have to hope that voters are willing to overlook the fact that he is of the major candidates, the farthest to the left on these issues right now. john: i agree, it's better for him to get it out there and set the table for the argument to come, rather than look like he's taking it on the chin and reacting. this puts him on offense. mark: and the fact that donald trump is going to be a big part of the debate.

on thursday, fox will hold that first big debate of the 2016 season. they are holding their smaller session with candidates not in the top 10. donald trump is expected to be in the top 10 as he is doing best in the national polls. the question for everybody is how to deal with the donald. jeb bush was asked in an interview how he would respond. if trump throws azinger his way. -- throws a zinger his way. >> you only empower bullies bite nor in them. you have to stand up to them. mark: standing up to the bullies. if he confronts someone in a bullying fashion in cleveland, is it smart to do what was suggested and stand up to him? john: he just basically provokes trump. he's trying to bait tromped into -- trump into attacking him by calling him a bully.

i don't know of the strategy is going to work, but it's clear that jeb bush is not taking the advice of people who said don't talk to trump. mark: that was a more provocative statement and in the past. my suspicion from talking to advisors is that the bar is going to be pretty high. trump is going to have to get in some but grill for them to go after him. most of them will try to buffett -- fluff it off, move on and not come back and pick a fight with him. john: if bush has succeeded into hitting him hard, and scoring the tko are the knockout, jeb bush is going to walk out of that debate looked like a big, strong man. mark: up next, inside biden land. we are live after the break.

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mark: a first guest tonight is the governor of the first date. -- our first guest tonight is the governor of the first state. governor jack markell, thanks for joining us from wilmington. that me asking this question. i know you don't have a lot of inside information about joe biden's deliberations about getting into the race. but if your friend decided to run against hillary clinton, what would he bring to the table in that race? >> he would bring a lifetime of work on behalf of the middle class, a lifetime of expertise in working with leaders all around the world. plus he has a lot of accomplishments in the obama administrations to build on. he would certainly bring a lot to the table. as you say, i don't know that anybody really knows what is going to do. john: i know you are not a

totally disinterested party, but you are pretty involved in democratic politics you have been all around the country. how would you rate his chances if he got in the race to actually win the nomination? >> i think there are others that are probably better, but i do know that what he would bring to the table, as i mentioned a moment ago, a focus on something that has been incredibly important. mark: i know you don't think you're the best political predictor in the country, but do you think if he got in he could win the nomination? >> it would be based on a sense that it would be possible. clearly you have a strong front runner in secretary clinton for sure, who brings a lot to the table as well. but the vice president, in terms of somebody really can connect with people from all walks of life, somebody who has been focused on middle-class

economics long before it became a buzzword, that is who he is. he has not asked me for any sense of whether he should run and we have not talked about it, it's a very personal decision. but i think if he did run, there's new kinds of strength he would bring to the table. mark: what would joe biden bring to the table that hillary does not bring to the table? >> i think she brings a lot, too. if he does decide to run, it will be for the voters to decide. i can tell you here in delaware he is loved. we have watched him for basically four decades now. in terms of someone we talk about in delaware, we talk about joe. we know him, we know his family, and we know how much he is valued. we are all part of the biden

family. when both tragically died, we think of them as delaware's family. >> i'm not asking you to say anything negative about her personally or in terms of her standing, but is she a fragile front runner or a formidable front runner? >> i think she is formidable. anybody who brings to a campaign the kinds of resources that she brings, not only financially but in terms of expertise and experience, i think she brings a lot. but we are seeing now during the campaign is exactly what we hoped to see. we want people to come forward with different ideas and let the folks here exactly what your vision is for the country. i don't underestimate her at all. i think she would be quite strong. john: do you think she is weaker now than she was three months ago? >> there has been so much written in the press, it's hard to say.

when people step back and say, is this somebody who would be a good president? she has a lot of great strength in terms of the campaign. in a head-to-head, maybe she's not as strong as a few months ago, but everybody predicted that from the beginning. nobody expected she would be up by 60 points. people are focusing more, but they will focus even more as we get closer to january. john: i'm curious among your fellow elected officials that you speak to is some frequency whether there is greater concern over the past few months specifically on the question of secretary clinton's problems with her e-mail practices and whether that might turn into a genuine problem that might cause weakening of the sport she has currently among the democratic establishment. >> among the folks i've talked to, my fellow governors, no. that has not been a major focus. but we are most focused on is what is going to be the vision

of our next president, who has a sense of the most important challenges facing the country, what are they going to do about it, had we build a strong middle class, dealing with the challenges of globalization. for those of us who are in the game day today, we know there are going to be ups and downs, and that's just the nature of the beast. we are lot more focused on the issues and how any candidate is going to present a compelling message. not one that only appeals to democrats but also appeals to independents and even some republicans as well. mark: you know joe biden and jill biden. is your gut that he will run or not run? >> i honestly don't know. >> thanks so much. john: we will be right back with a guide to the republican debate stage after these words. ♪

mark: our second guest is the

smartest pollster on either side of the mississippi. thanks for joining us. i want to talk generally, we've never seen a 17 candidate field. we've never seen a candidate like trump. doing very well in polls -- but some of the internals below that, he is doing better in some ways but still pretty bad for a front runner. is it sustainable? can he stay as a front runner, even though many people say they would never vote for him? >> a lot of people are saying they would never vote for him, but that's true for anyone at this point. you get some people with 20%-30% winning the iowa caucus. it doesn't really mean that is how things are going to turn out in the end. there is a long road to go down. the trick is, can he sustained having a lead in the poll but having almost the people feeling unfavorably toward you. i think the answer is no, you have to turn that around.

if he does continue down this path, it will be because there are more people who are turned on to what he is saying that are turned off. mark: i know you have become an amateur trumpologist in the past few months. what else strikes you is unusual about where he stands currently in the poll? >> he has gotten where he has gotten by being very bold, very brash, and doing things that other candidates are choreographed to not do. it's not just that they haven't heard him, they have helped him. what's unusual about his candidacy is that voters are able to put into context all the things he says. they've already been backstage with him. they know this is who he is in an ordinary life. with other candidates, when you don't know what they are really

like, you sort of have to wonder about what is going on and gaffes can be fatal. mark: if you were his holster -- pollster and he says i want to go from 20 where i am in the national old up to 30, i don't want to lose the people i have now, can i get new people without alienating the people who already like me? >> my guess is he could. the things people like about him, and there are a lot of things that people like. they like that he is a leader. they like that he has run a complex organization and run it out of bankruptcy a few times. i think the more he tells that story and translates it into what they can do for the country, then people begin to get a vision of what a trump presidency would be. to me, there is a plan to be had.

john: if you look at the numbers and dig into them, where are the weak points that indicate how, if trump is going to fall, how that would happen. >> i don't know if it's in the numbers. i think it might be more common sense. i think trump will kill trump. it is hard to see him fading away. it will either be something from his past that will come to light. he has written so many books about his life, it's hard to think that that will happen. or something that happens in the future. my guess is he could be more like ross perot and just decide this just isn't for him. the second time around when ross perot ran. there is some commonality there in the kind of characters they are. mark: tomorrow morning, our new national poll about the republican field comes out. we will see who is at the all-important top 10. it will be released at 6:00 a.m. tomorrow on bloomberg politics.com. we will have that for you tomorrow, and we will be back,

right after this. ♪

john: 6:00 a.m. tomorrow, the big poll we have coming out on the republican field. here with us tomorrow, to run through all the results of the republican national poll about the presidential ticks of republicans. john's piece about joe biden, what is your bottom line about joe biden, whether he will run and what happens if he does? john: a little less and 50-50. as i said before, i don't think it's good for hillary clinton. joe biden is not very happy with the clintons right now. remember we are on twice a day. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

emily: twitter shares close at their lowest since their opening. does it make them an easy acquisition target? i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg west." the stripe ceo joins me to talk about the company's $5 billion valuation and taking on paypal. the ceo of github with more on the future of open source. first to our lead -- a stock we are watching -- shares