in the next two weeks before another bill to the ecb comes due. ahead of the open the futures in london are up a little bit high. are we going to get a higher open? let's answer that question. caroline: after a dale of selloff in europe, could it be back into the green? we have the same breaking now and later and the eurozone at 9:00 a.m.. it's basically flat to on the green side. there is caution when it comes to china. the imf saying there is still more work to be done. if you want a reserve currency. everyone is focusing on what the federal reserve will do come september. will we see a rate rise? we have seen dennis lockhart playing into that voting member on the federal reserve saying he will only endorse waiting until

december if we see a significant deterioration in economic data. we get the new jobless -- the new job claims tomorrow. and in the payroll will we see a third month? we're up 0.3% in france. later today will see how greece will handle it in two days. all eyes on the dollar. we saw the wall street journal coming up. that statement that he thinks there will only wait if there is a significant deterioration. we have seen gold continuing to selloff over the past few days and we do see no one being leeward into it -- no one being lured into it.

let's have a little look at oil and we are starting to see oil racking up a little bit. an interesting ceo interviewed by anna earlier. we are trading up some several percent over the past couple of days. everyone is waiting to see where the u.s. stockpiles go. will we see them fall as many anticipate? we are seeing five-month lows when it comes to the prices to put them in perspective. we have had a number of earnings in the banking front. member they seem to the business. they set the stock lower and today it's up almost 6%. the best profit we have seen in eight years. carolyn giving us an exclusive interview with the chief executive. it beats and it goes higher and all of that equity trading.

again solid numbers. we are seeing 90% growth in the first half of revenue with the operating profit and the dividend being raised. people like what they see when it comes to the london stock exchange. all about equity trading on the flipside it is down 1.8%. it's not as much as analysts have been hoping for this bank which is really focusing in europe. jon: we snapped that when he streak on the stoxx hundred yesterday. we're three minutes in and the ftse 100 up 0.1%. let's get the wrap over in asia. quick a very good afternoon to you guys in london from hong kong. we are just pushing three or four minutes past 3:00 p.m. in the afternoon. let me recap what we are seeing over the market. most markets are up with the

exception of shanghai. you are looking at what we're seeing over sydney. that being said the percentage of stocks and markets today that are higher are basically much more compared to yesterday. the thing is you have the likes of toyota, the taiwan semiconductors. retailing in japan. these are very heavily weighted stocks. all of those i mentioned on the way down where fell. on wednesday what we're seeing is it is pulling down the regional benchmark. so first quarter earnings, that is still the focus in japan. if you did have to pick one bright earning spot it is going to be japan. very good earnings. you have a lot of good profit guidance ahead. they're helping things along when they bring back those revenues. another key thing we have been following today is what is happening in china. not so much the equity markets

but the remedy. the imf basically released their latest update on this review. they are basically saying there is a lot of work that has to be done we may push this decision, whether or not to include the renminbi by nine months into the fall of next year. that decision will be made at the end of the month. back here in europe, banks are in focus. france's second-biggest bank reporting its highest profit since 2007. and beating estimates with it. carolyn spoke to the bank's ceo in an exclusive interview. >> we have a very strong set of results with good performances across the board for all of our businesses. the ghost at 9% organically we have without a constant exchange

rates and we also have had good money and a lower cost of risk. a very strong performance. i'm very happy with the performances. >> france and europe, would you say that the recovery is still fragile? >> i would say it is more lower than fragile. low energy prices and low interest rates. i think it is fitting the economy progressively. we are content to see again and improvement for france we at 20% gdp growth it's not a miracle but it is going in the right direction and i would see the same in both european countries. we are going to benefit from that in my view.

jon: i can tell you right here right now the stock is surging. the biggest one-day pop since august 2013. if it holds there it is right on your screen. we switch it up. we are pushing seven by the second. carolyn joins us now from paris for a little bit more. as the market like what it is seeing or hearing from the mad at the top of the bank. i want to dig deep into the cost savings program. 850 million euros what is driving that cost savings plan >> socgen has already implemented the first wave of cost savings. now there's an extra 850 million euros for the next two years for that is what is happening. of course it's one of the reasons. if you look at their investment bank there equities are trading

at 61% in the second quarter. but section down at 15% so that is something to look at. something they have to do. maybe they told me the only reason. the other reason is technology. the business model of european banks is challenging. clients are challenging. they expect better services at a cheaper cost. i also asked him whether that will mean maybe some cuts at the start of the savings plan and he said it is premature at the moment to talk about job cuts but it will have earnings across the board not only in the investment bank but also some people may have to change jobs in order to adapt to new technology. jon: thank you very much. a big pop on stock jen stock this morning. let's dig deep into the banks and get the investment's take.

locum kevin durant where he helps oversee more than 4.2 billion pounds. great to have you with us. in the earnings season people sit in front of me. the big export, isn't going to be the banks for the companies and in the banks come along and they crush everything and the real earnings growth comes from the european banks. did you expect it and will continue? >> we did expect it and there is a lot to like about banks at the moment. interest margins are strong, the cost of risk or impairment provisions depending on which country is improving and you have just seen it on the socgen numbers more and more technology being important to the systems and that lowers your cost. the balance sheet repair is pretty much done. having a look at the ratios. on top of that, they sit at discounts and that doesn't make

sense. your sing the discounts starting to unwind. -- you are seeing the discounts starting to unwind. jon: discussing how the banks should be run and who should run them. do i want retail or investment banking? >> at this moment in time i would say you want retail banking. european appear true of two years of supernatural possibility. and the lack of provisions. so because these institutions were becoming so heavily regulated, depending a what your sing at the moment i wouldn't be surprised to see them get toward the 10% range and in some places that is not priced in. at lloyds that is arguably overpriced. however at some of the other banks the discounts have been devalued.

jon: kevin wilson with us. coming up, the rate hike debate heats up. a look at the bank of england's super thursday and how one bank official gives september a ringing endorsement. ♪

jon: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. tomorrow is a huge day for the rate hike debate. the bank of england is changing the way it releases its data. starting august 6 it will simultaneously publish its policy decisions minutes votes and forecast for every facet of the u.k. economy. the bank of england is about to unleash a flood of data. up until now every month the policy decision and minutes felt two weeks apart and every three months the inflation report would fall somewhere in between with the potential to whip sort investors on each occasion. that is all about to change. starting august 6 it will simultaneously publish its

policy decision, minutes including votes as well as any new forecast covering every facet of the economy. the instantaneous unveiling means investors will have all of the information in hand. here is how it will all go down. officials will gather on august 5 to be briefed by staff and then vote. the decision will be announced the following day at noon giving you 45 minutes to digest all of the details before governor mark carney begins his press conference. traders, investors and economists, brace yourselves. i will see if my guests are. let's bring in credit -- kevin durant. for more on that rate hike debate first to you. super thursday. doesn't make life easier or harder? >> i think it will be very

exciting. we love that in financial markets. the foreign exchange markets are very efficient. some they're looking for to how sterling the interest rates market or acting in particular. >> am looking at sunday forward. the first rate hike riced in for may. we are about september for the fed. the dates are kind of the same and yet a huge disconnect for when people are talking about when the fed will move in when the bank of england will military >> wife >> the difference for me is the bank of england uses a macro production policy and the fed doesn't use that there there is more incentive to not raise them in the u.k.. i think it is a mistake and i think that explains the reason the disconnect between those two markets. jon: are we going to have a huge repricing at some point when the reality hits that actually we could get a real split tomorrow

in terms of voting and things could come forward several months. >> is that what you think is going to happen? >> we think that two maybe three might vote for a hike tomorrow. and as you say, market price in the the markets have two toy five basis point hike price for next year the could easily move higher. over the next three or four months as we get closer to that first timing. >> let's get to the news in the last way for hours. >> the federal reserve official dennis lockhart speaking to the wall street journal. we can bring you a quote you we have a feeling it is a thursday in september -- we are going into thursday thinking it will take significant deterioration in the economic picture to sway him. he is going september. the question is how many friends to see happy >> he probably has a number of friends he is considered to be a centrist. there has been significant investor complacency.

if we were to project this a little further. the fed will be looking to have interest rates at a neutral rate. when they gap has depleted and that could be as soon as 2.5 to three years away. in the neutral rate in the u.s. could be 4% or 5%. >> i'm looking at your world. a dollar and a four month high inflation already super low i look at the bank of england a look at euro sterling. you guys think 65 pence in 12 months. will that be a problem with the bank of england and is the dollar pushing ever stronger going to be a problem for janet yellen. >> interesting with the fed. they had cited the dollar in the whole oil store. but we have had a quarter dollar stability. the euro-dollar hasn't really gone to go far. i think in the bigger picture it is all about the labor market capacity constraints and i think the fed half admitted that wages lag the improvement in the labor

market. i think they're ready to move and we are seeing particular with that semiannual testimony from yellen. definitely more of the focusing on the positives rather than the negatives. jon: some would say they are reaching and we have this commodity market that plays into it. are people making too much of what that means and what that could mean for what the federal reserve does. >> i think we could put it into some sort of context. the market wasn't hugely inflated. this happened over a short. of time but all i'm saying is commodity prices move them back to the cost of production. >> no colquitt's for rates. >> and would not have thought so. >> you have to look around the world with those central banks worried about disinflation there are many of them around and they all see the ecb included with oil prices coming lower, inflation expectations are coming down. speculation is already building that maybe the ecb might have to increase its qe.

so i differently think it is this falling and oil prices that were negative for the year and positive for the dollar pay >> just a finally get your call tomorrow with the split where are you going? >> i'm going 7-2. one of those votes doesn't count. >> jon: to stay with us. after the break, will greece reach a bailout deal in time? ♪

it is time to talk about greece. may lost one of 17% in the past two trading day since the five-week shutdown close to we have reopened over and athens. this is the government who aims to reach a new bailout in the next two weeks before it has to pay up three .2 billion euros to the european central bank. we are doing it all over again. hans nichols has been covering the story and joins us now from berlin. >> where do we stand in talks and another question why is it so quiet. >> where's the greek noise hans: it is quite because it is summer and also because there is positive movement and no one once the poison that. what we have is nice noises coming out of brussels just moment to go jean-claude juncker

and the commission of the european commission had positive things to say. so against guess all this positive sentiment we have this timeline which should cause some concern. august 20 is the date for that bond payment to the ecb to take place. to get that done you need to have a political agreement. perhaps this week or early next week but then you need to have all the national parliaments work on it. an official in athens said they wanted to see our limits outside of greece vote august 12 or august 14 everyone in germany would have to come back from holiday. so what you do about the privatization fun. how quickly you will plus it up and how quickly will drain that privatization fun and we use it to recapitalize the banks and what are you going to do with the bank -- one quick note on the pricing. i still suspect we'll have a couple more days of what is going on there trying to figure

out accurate prices for everyone because the instructions are still in place yesterday was down 1.2% and it will open in about 11 minutes. jon: i will show the viewers a chart. i know that you have seen this. it is the chart of the bank stock over the past few trading days. >> you see june 23 25th toy six nothing for the whole of july. we reopen legal limit down 30% do nothing for the rest of the session reopen the following day limit down 30%. we are talking about a 50% loss. i've never seen a chart like this. i asked my twitter followers to name it. they came up with stairway to help stairway to hell in a recapitalization and if it's a serious question we go limit down and seemingly no one knows what these anxious the trading at and no one knows what shape the recapitalization is going to take -- do we know anything yet are >> we suspect it is going to go down again right because that

trigger has been halted minutes into the trade each morning. i should say that some of them didn't end the day down 30%. some of that ended it down 26 or 27%. the key thing i will be looking at is do we have a bad bank in greasy echo is this considered to be the bad brink -- bad bank. if all of the rest of them go down 15 to 20 and they are still an outlier and continues to drop 30% that will tell you a little bit about the quality of loans that they have or at least the market perception of the quality of loans they have. how you create a bad bank and with that bad bank ends up doing with those loans -- those are difficult questions that could mean there are serious social questions inside greece. that is why these are difficult conversations very of jon: hans nichols, our international correspondent. fantastic inside. in a couple minutes time i will bring you that athens stock exchange.

coming up relative calm in the commodity markets. i will break down the market after the break. ♪

jon: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. we are 30 minutes into your trading day let's see how things are shaping up this morning. the ftse 100 is in the green we're up 0.3%. a big pop in paris. stock jan with the spoke -- solid beat this morning delivering biggest profit since 2011. switch up the board very quickly and we take it from stocks to fx. the euro south of the dollar nine. 108 down by 63. dennis lockhart gives september a ringing endorsement. euro sterling done by 70 pence.

ing sitting next to me forecasting 65 pence in the next 12 months. euro eris sterling bullish. i will be talking about commodities in just a bit. bring crude act through $50 a barrel. those are the big market moves this morning let's get some of the big stock stories with caroline hyde. you just talking about the general is the best performance morning. this is a company funding rates in the equity side of the business. the highest profit -- you said it in some eight years. there also promising more cost cuts. thank you very much. investors like what they hear. and here and united kingdom. another one of their top performers. again it has to do with their

earnings. the biggest manager of u.k. pensions. the numbers to the analyst estimates. they are lowering in the cash in the your sing that inflows up 62%. they're down on the downside and it is all about oil down by almost six cents this morning. this is a refining company not living up to expectations on profit or sales. lower sales volume because of the turnaround and also lower sales caused by the oil price decline. jon: just in some breaking headlines. bloomberg caught up with the governor in an interview speaking to our partners in bloomberg tv india. he said india is among the better prepare nations for fed tightening. you cannot rule out volatility

when the fed starts to tighten. he says there are serious problems in emerging markets with some developed nations. there is a really forefront domestic story that we need to talk about as well. who do that later on in the show. we will bring you more from that interview later this morning. right here on bloomberg tv it has been a rough year so far for investors with oil alone down 21% in the last month and steve drops across the rest of the asset class. ken hoffman joins us now from singapore. you have then traveling to china. i see the gdp figures and i see that things are slowing down telling what you saw in the world's second largest economy. we didn't see anything better than we did last april in fact things looked worse but the only

thing you can say is that every good person and that was very bearish and every person is trying to figure out how long this bear market can last and some were saying a 10 year bear market. if there is a bullish thing to say it's that everyone is bearish. jon: what is your sense of what we can expect looking ahead from here. if everyone is so bearish what does it mean for the commodity market? a hissing a huge supply side story and some concerns about demand but it over here, where do you sit in that debate. >> when you do see demand in china down and china is the linchpin of global commodity markets. we're still demand done in june it is the 16th month out of the last 18 months that chinese steel domestic demand has been down that puts everything on the minors when you talk to the minors every single one of them says the exact same thing. i'm doing great i will continue to increase my production they

all think they are george clooney and looking great when they really look mostly like me. >> guys need to cut capacity so that supply can actually meet demand. and teresa that happen it is bad news for the commodity market. jon: you are a much better looking than the george clooney. take it from me. let's head over to the cio over at brent shipley where he holds over more than 3.2 billion pounds. kevin what is going on with the commodity markets. we stabilize some of these copper gold catches a bit for a couple of days. stabilizing with more pain to come? >> going back to what we said earlier on i think all you are seeing is inflation and what was an overinflated market. we have seen oil and copper prices below we have not seen his precious metals.

it's $50 an ounce. so former ceo of pimco wrote an editorial yesterday talking about the historical correlations breaking down. not fitting into a higher gold price. how can we have that break down as far as you are concerned? >> they were fought -- flawed in the best place. gold is a hedge against deflation but it has never shown those properties. gold is not what it was 25 or 30 years ago. so those underlying investment cases were flawed in the first place. you have a temporary rationale recently which was you held what was effectively a currency and all this time there the other currencies on the planet which give you a zero yield.

but we spoke about rate cycles we will see -- the investment case for gold has been obliterated. jon: i see gary prices plunging. he saw the canadian dollar. now the aussie. they might want that to happen -- those individual come judy -- countries in the central banks might become people with that move. is that done when you hear what kevin has to say about commodity route continuing. >> you have to be very bribed to be buying into it commodity currencies right now even if you had seen lower commodity prices which as kevin said is debatable. there are lagged effects. in norway they went early and they saw the fall and the oil and the impact on business investment. chris canada earlier this year said don't worry we will get through this and then later said we have a problem and we are cutting rates.

even just over what we have seen over the last 2-3 months the sabine a knock in terms of business investment in terms of q3 and q4. the like effect will depreciate the currency even more. jon: one country that may not be will coming is russia. when you see dollar-ruble three hertz 60 over the last couple days things have stabilized but it was getting ugly at one point earlier this week. what does the russian central bank do. how much attention are you plan to what is happening in the ruble? >> we've definitely seen them managing the ruble against oil prices. late last year they had some major problems. technical problems in terms of their ability to provide foreign currency liquidity to people that need it. so i think what they may do is they may return to offering reintroducing the 12 month three priority which provides things to those people who need it.

but rent if it is around around the areas. that should be ok but i think it will become of technical. jon: when you look at this market and you see the commodity route. with like glencoe trading at a record low. this time of year last time we were talking about glencore going after rio. when you look at the business right now is or anything you like about it right now i think you have to be brave to get involved with any of the minors at this time but glencore is a trading is us on top of the extraction business. jon: which you hoped would offset the extraction business. ask if you picture that as a commodities investment bank you look at the investment banking franchises you can see what happened to revenues. jon: brave to hold minors and

commodity currencies that is the sum up a run bloomberg tv. chris turner head of effect strategy think you for joining us this morning let's bring up the afc for you. the athens stock exchange down by 1.6%. the banks getting battered again down by 14.78%. limit down monday and limit down tuesday. where are we wednesday? pre-much limit down on perea's bank again. that is getting ugly. i will bring you an update right here on bloomberg tv to still to come. is apple losing its shine? the company falls below its 200 day moving average. plus, alibaba makes a big push to go global.

jon: in the last few hours bloomberg tv has been speaking to the central bank governor in india. he says he cannot rule out volatility in two starts increasing rates. >> global demand is still weak. that is the obvious reason why we are seeing some of these developments.

at the same time there are pockets of strength. japan has been growing moderately for some time and the euro area has been getting over the greek crisis and there are areas which are starting to grow reasonably rapidly. it is a mixed picture areas i think the concern is seven or eight years after the crisis we are still in this situation of relatively slow growth. the emerging markets now have more serious problems than some of the investor countries. there is a lot of concern about brazil, russia and now increasingly what is happening in china. whether the stock market gyrations are a signal of something deeper jon: will bring

you much more of the interview right here on bloomberg tv. time to turn to tech. alibaba appointing a key player to grow global expansion and meanwhile investors continuing to fall out of love with apple. a remarkable story in that stock over the last couple of weeks. caroline: it's sort of like the titans of wall street going to the titans of tech. now alibaba is getting in on the game. the new man to help drive international growth. the former goldman sachs partner michael evans is now president. interestingly he has always been an independent member of the board since they ipo would but now -- since they ipo'd. . now he is looking at international growth strategy.

not only does he have an olympic gold medal for rowing. he is been the chairman of asia for goldman sachs. he knows how the world interacts with china and how china into wrecks with the world and this is now his job description because globalization is the most important strategy is what can out of a statement with alibaba when they announced this particular appointment. they have 2 billion consumers who use e-commerce. they want to keep focusing on how they get the other brands in europe and the americas and asia to get involved with the chinese consumer base. this is what his job description is going to be and he is responsible to the chief executive. what about apple? the pain is continuing. we have been seeing the moving average. this is the 200 day moving average and for the first time we've seen the share price

dipped below the 200 day moving average for the first time since september 2015. let's have a little look at what is driving it. we are in correction territory. 10% below the highs in 2015. that was originally reached in february and we announced 10% of those highs and apple shares hit a six month low yesterday and amid the correction a frenzy of selling. the fact that we are starting to see that share price below the 200 day moving average. this is more shares traded yesterday and we saw after the earnings statement came out which so disappointed investors very is this what is fundamentally driving the selloff. is it the china selloff the fact that they have been hit so much in stock market losses or that they have less to spend on snazzy smartphones.

there is much weighing on investment -- investor eyes and ears at the moment overall it is the key concern about these technical indicators. join a phenomenal explosion involving as it was trading yesterday we will be keeping an eye on that threat the morning on bloomberg tv. in the last 12 four hours, one deal in focus, china making -- shia making a bid for excel to. -- for baxelta. they are looking to become the biggest maker of drugs. we're pleased to say that sam joins me now. topline of the first question -- does it make any sense to go after them? >> this is not the sort of thing that shia would go for $30

billion. it fits their strategy and gives them access to a much broader range of countries. they have in the feeley a -- hemophilia which fits pretty well with what shire once in the rare diseases areas. i don't think this deal is necessarily driven by cost-cutting but it gives the company a much more significant base. jon: we know that m&a has exploded in this sector at the big question is whether it is offensive m&a or offensive m&a. >> they were asked that specifically on the investor call that they have and you could argue that it is defensive because obviously they were a target. just six month ago when abby walked out of the door. there has been other suggestions that perhaps the newly shaped al

again which is itself a similar merger could be a potential bidder for shire. there was probably enough money in their chasing a possible bid for shire. jon: want to talk about hurdles to a deal. there are some other nuances in there as well. talk to me about the hurdles and how significant they might be. >> the management will probably want to have a go at it for a while so that is one possible hurdle and i think their response has been that you are undervaluing the stock. if you do some math you could argue that but not massively. the counter is what you just listed. cannot say that only months ago you yourself undervalued the stock. that is a little bit difficult to argue the reality that excel to has close to 20% of the country does potentially throw up a major barrier there it

shire may have approached them before the deal -- before the ipo of bucks alta -- baxalta. the reality is that 20% holding is either going to be independent or it will help you jon: a deal to watch. still to come on the program, we preview standard charter's earnings and what you should be watching for the rest of the day. stan chart -- can they deliver? that is the biggest stunt gainer stocked and delivering the best profit since the financial crisis. back in two. ♪

jon: welcome back to bloomberg tv. i am jonathan ferro. that is almost it for this hour of bloomberg tv. we'll take you what we should be watching for the rest of the day. standard charter us out with earnings and it is the first set of numbers. the new ceo reports and in 20 minutes, we will get the answers. what are we expecting? stocks generally the best profit since 2007. not expecting that. >> standard chartered is a very different beast from stock gender and we're are looking at

how that revenue has fallen and our concerns they are not making enough money anymore. we will be looking very closely at that and we will be interested to see the amount of capital that they have to raise. they will -- potentially be cutting their dividend. jon: is that something we could get in 15 minutes time and will be given honeymoon period to the ne ceo? maybe try to get all of the bad stuff out of the way and clear the debt if you will. the dividend may be announced in a maybe cut today but we are unlikely to see anything about it capital raise. could certainly see the direction of travel over there and how much they will have to take from investors. jon: breaking down what you consider expect from standard charter earnings in 15 minutes time. we will bring you the right here on bloomberg tv. for the rest of the day, for you investment traders there is a

busy day of services and pmi's. the u.k., that number matters. 9:30 a.m. u.k. time. at 2:45 p.m.. u.k. time. another thing to watch right here on bloomberg tv, the r.b.i. governor says he cannot rule out volatility in the fed starts tightening. more coming right here. "the pulse" is up next with francine lacqua and manus cranny. as we head to the break let's get you up to speed of where markets are training. -- trading. the ftse 100 up 0.3%. the dax in germany up over 100 points. the cac 40 is the biggest gainer and stock gender smashing estimates delivering the best rough it since the financial crisis. switch up the board and check

out fx in the 15 seconds we have left. euro-dollar south of 1.09. euro-sterling south of 70 pence. that is it for me. as the block with the rest of your day.

francine: they beat. highest profits in 2007. the ceo tells us exclusively that cutting costs is the way for at france's second-biggest bank. manus: the dollar climbs to a four-month high. the central bank is close to raising rates next month here at francine: moving its magic, disney shares fall after hours. >> we can fix it. we just have to get back to headquarters. ♪