>> i am john heilemann. with all due respect it was either this or the -- ♪ , 24 hours away from the first presidential debate. the candidate with the most on the line will not be there. the fbi is looking into hillary .linton's e-mail system it could bring about difficult questions regarding her private

e-mail server. this is been getting worse for hillary clinton. i am a simple man. with "fbir name start investigates" is bad. federalver there is a investigation, there are lots of questions about how they are conducted. there are lots of things associated with the server. have always relied on republicans messing up. rnc.ook at the the press is on the republican side on this.

>> having followed a lot of federal investigations, they always start out with, well, this is just an investigation. as you said, it builds. we don't know where that will lead. you go back to her initial statement, i know the server is secure. now the fbi wants to know how she could claim it was. >> there are a number of aids scrutinized, who will really be on the line to which theeir role, --elligent community intelligence community please contained classified information. >> new poll out of new hampshire

puts clinton close to bernie sanders. she had a six point lead, and the margin of error is 5.9%. to bad data points for clinton. who is least honest, clinton scores 31%, and standards scores 3%. on the question of who is most 24%,le, clinton got sanders got 40%. bernie sanders beat hillary clinton in new hampshire? >> i think he can. i don't rule out that he beats her in iowa. there is a certain momentum now. i think her attacking him will not be effective. there is a vulnerability to her. that does not mean she will be the nominee, but i think he can beat her in new hampshire. if on election day he is close,

i think he could be carried over the top. who are tornvoters between sanders and clinton. .hey like what he says it shows up in the numbers that show she is away ahead of him and terms of winning the nomination. democrats like to fall in love, while republicans fall in line. i talked to two dozen democrats at this i would dinner in cedar rapids, every clinton supporters said my heart is with bernie sanders. has.essage discipline he the fact that there are a lot of people in the democratic party who find him more likable than clinton -- guy. is not a cuddly

they like that. that is dangerous territory for her. kicking -- inot new hampshire, that tells you something. , but noould change denying that poll. when president obama gave a , when heday on iran had his press conference a few weeks ago, he got animated about the topic. he could not get it out of his system then. universityamerican today to methodically -- critics of his nuclear deal with iran. result, those who say we can walk away from this deal and maintain sanctions are selling a fantasy. instead of strengthening our position as some have suggested, congress'rejection would result

in sanctions unraveling. when we examine the arguments against this deal, none of them stand up to scrutiny. that may be why the rhetoric on the other side us are strained. suppose some of it can be called knee-jerk partisanship. it renders every decision made a disaster, a surrender, iranian .errorists, endangering freedom beit looks like there will votes of disapproval and both houses. belooks like there will not enough votes to override a presidential veto. what good does it do the president to be so skating against its critics? >> he basically said the

hard-liners in iran are linked up with the republican caucus. has to say to democrats that this is a partisan issue. if those people vote the other way on the disapproval measure, he wants to have them with him on the override. he is playing a straightforward party game. get one or two republicans in the senate, but that tone is mostly emotion. it may be rallying democratic members of congress, but it is turning off the donors who do not like to hear that rhetoric from him. ones -- because the merits are close -- the donors are the ones putting the most pressure on him. i do not think he is doing himself any favors. there are other ways to rally the democratic party. >> that was a plausible

argument. i do think he is looking at the end game. he is looking at the override dynamics. a filibusterd get in the senate -- than 24 hours away from the fox news debates. andday, bring the clocks up re-synchronize your watches. jt.'s talk about d framing thee debate around trump as the new face of the republican party. mark, how can republican stop this event? will mostlyk they do it. moves, they need to move off of it. this is a rare high-profile

opportunity so himself to the public and republican voters. if they do that, maybe they can define the party. him, if they attack ridicule him, it becomes the whole story of the debate. an implicit draw contrast with trump. there will be stories and coverage written about this and on television that will point , walker, and rubio are not where trump is. here's the problem. he's not that different from a lot of them. what should bes done with the people in the country illegally. -- tougher border enforcement. economics as well. they may be able to attack him

from the right on things like health care and taxes, but that will only push them further to the right. that's not what the party needs right now. john: they are going to need some courage in this. people will have to take some positions on actual issues, where i don't think anybody in the republican party things we should have 25% across-the-board import quotas on china. up, republican cleveland.s us from after this word from our sponsors. ♪

is the formerght chairman of the republican national committee. we suspect he has some pretty good rules for a drinking game

to play during the gop debate tomorrow night. you have seen a lot of presidential debates. .his one will be different who has the most at stake and why? >> donald trump with his numbers has a lot at stake. , perryks on the wings and k-6, have a lot at stake -- john kasich, have a lot at stake. it is an important night. it is a kick off for the more formal campaign part of the campaign, but i think we make a mistake if we put way too much on the impact of this event tomorrow night. do think there is any validity to the notion that those in the undercard debate will benefit from that? >> so many people consume their

media on screens and tablets, not sitting in front of a television in prime time, and they will have more time to respond and come across more thoughtful because of the nature of the format. i suspect that if you asked them if they would switch with somebody in the prime time spot, they would in a heartbeat. i don't think the advantage of being in the prime time slot is as great as it would have been 10 years ago. mark: we talked earlier about hillary clinton. fbiw story about the looking at her private server. poll numbers in new hampshire, bernie sanders closing in. prebus -- where are you on her.

?f she weak >> she is weak. i have felt that for some time. i'm not certain she will be the nominee. i think she will be the nominee. will see that we we have more supply and demand for nominees. on the democratic side, more demand than supply. whether it is cars, coca-cola, or politics, where there is demand, supply rises to meet it. that's why we are talking about joe biden right now. mark: do things that create weakness for the candidate? >> the honest and trustworthy numbers. she does not come across as someone who is relatable, likable, feels like she can understand my concerns, someone working an hourly or wage job.

-- hourly wage job for health insurance and food. i do not think hillary clinton comes across as someone who has those solutions and cares deeply about those people. you have advised a lot of candidates, been a candidate, and under no circumstances have you ever encountered anything like the trunk phenomenon. how would you advise the other candidates to handle donald trump tomorrow night? >> i would say get your message out there. all these candidates have to convey their rationale for candidacy, policy priority or two, and a little bit about themselves, and they need to counterpunch if trump goes after them, but i would not advise them to go after trump.

i think you have a very limited thent of time to convey to audience is something about you, your policy, and why you are to be the next president of the united states and why they should vote for you. if you waste time going after trump, that will burn up a lot of those minutes. if he goes after you, i don't think you can allow that to stand. you have to demonstrated that you are a candidate who fights back. history would suggest that he may go after one candidate tomorrow night. would you fight back with specifics, humor, outrage? john: what is the right tone to deal with that attack? humor always in those settings is probably -- you know, i think it is the kind of thing where you would want to deflate a bubble maybe, but again, i wouldn't -- i would have something in my back pocket

prepared in the event he does. to the extent the other nine people on the stage can make this more about the issues, the policies, hillary clinton, the economy, and less about donald trump, the better off they will be. that is how i would be looking at it if i were one of them. if i were donald trump, i would be trying to convey a sense of depth on issues and filling in some blanks in that regard. trump has raised the issue of immigration to the forefront. you support a path to legal ittus, and that you support personally, is that correct? >> i was not in the white house during the immigration reform first. even at that time, i said i did not favor a path to citizenship. mark: you didn't support the senate bill that had a path to citizenship? >> i did not support a path to

citizenship. was an father, who immigrant who came through ellis island, i think abiding by our laws is important. toon't believe we are going mass and 12 million people. we have to come up with some accommodation in that regard. i think we can do that. we have republicans on the show all the time and asked them what should you do with the 13 million people here. they all say, we have to focus on the border first. as someone who wants to rebuild the image of the party with that ac voters, is politically smart, courageous position to take, or should we all find some way to self-support, whatever it is. from my expense running in a

purple state and an important state in the electrical -- electoral college, -- everyone agrees with that. pretty much everyone agrees that we need to do that. the second thing we have to do is reform our visa system. 40% are hereby having overstayed their visas. to do is thing we need that for those who are here illegally but have not broken other laws besides immigration laws, then we can give them a fresh visa and they can be here legally. as someone who wants to rebuild the party, it would you tell your fellow republicans to stop dodging the third question you just addressed and start having a position, or is dodging it politically smart? >> i think we need to provide solutions, whether people agree with my solution or not, that's fine. to see us say

this is how we are going to addresses problem. i can tell you that in virginia it resonated. it was accepted and embraced by people from different demographics and different persuasions and political parties even. i do think there is a commonsense allusion that we can put forward as a party that helps us to appeal to republican voters. mark: what is the adjective you would use to describe your fellow republicans who refuse to take a position on that issue? >> there is plenty of time. there is plenty of time for them to comport with solutions. they will do that on their own timetable, not what we decide on this program this evening. mark: fair enough. john: ed gillespie. i had so many questions to ask you.

. up next, what people are typing into google when they want to learn about republican candidates after these words. ♪

mark: people are really interested in donald trump. don't believe me? google has a map that shows which candidates are searched for. all that red is trump country. we used the alto complete function and did ourselves some good old-fashioned search engine investigative journalism. ♪

>> i do not like green eggs and ham, i do not like them sam i am. ♪ mark: a special and -- episode

coming up of what? when? that is coming up. ♪

john: something we didn't get to earlier, the washington post story, bill clinton phoned donald trump. i note that is very like bill clinton. mark: the clinton people say that she was calling trump back. they have a relationship. the whole drama of the clinton-trump relationship, this is a slice of it, but it will play out. him for somebody asked political advice, he gives it. mitt romney wants advice, bill clinton gives it. donald trump once advice, bill clinton gives it. mark: they like big

personalities. john: we will be there for the republican debates tomorrow. what will they say? what will we say? mark: thanks for watching. sayonara. ♪

♪ alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. ♪ [closing bell] alix: u.s. stocks closing higher today after three days of losses. the dollar also rose, and treasuries weekend. joe: the question is, what did you miss? a small dafor stocks, amid growing worries. should we worry? our expert thinks otherwise. alix: apple wobbles, we have two charts the company should fear. joe: and opportunities in oil.