>> i am john heilemann. >> i am mark halperin, and with all due respect, it was either this or the five. ♪ >> flukes, 24 hours away from the first presidential debate. the candidate with the most on the line will not be there. the fbi is looking into hillary clinton's e-mail system. it could bring about difficult questions regarding her private e-mail server.

is this something big reactor bigger? john: i am a simple man. having your name start with "fbi investigates" is bad. mark: whenever there is a federal investigation, there are lots of questions about how they are conducted. there are lots of things associated with the server. the other thing is the democrats have always relied on republicans messing up. you look at the rnc. the press is on the republican side on this. against the clintons, for this

investigation. john: having followed a lot of federal investigations, they always start out with, well, this is just an investigation. we are just looking at the practices, not at you. as you said, it builds. we don't know where that will lead. you go back to her initial statement, i know the server is secure. at the time i thought to myself, how do you know that? now the fbi wants to know how she could claim it was. mark: there are a number of aides who will now be scrutinized, who will really be on the line to explain their role, which the intelligence community says contained classified information. john: and other not so good news for hillary clinton, a new poll

out of new hampshire puts clinton close to bernie sanders. according to that ball she has a six point lead, and the margin of error is 5.9%. two bad data points for clinton. when asked who is least honest clinton scores 31%, and sanders scores 3%. that is one of those where you don't want to add the larger number. on the question of who is most likable, clinton got 24% sanders got 40%. mark, can bernie sanders beat hillary clinton in new hampshire? mark: i think he can. i don't rule out that he beats her in iowa. there is a certain momentum now. i think her attacking him will not be effective. there is a vulnerability to her. that does not mean she will not be the nominee, but i think he can beat her in new hampshire.

if on election day he is close i think he could be carried over the top. john: there are voters who are torn between sanders and clinton. they like what he says. it shows up in the numbers that show she is away ahead of him and terms of winning the nomination. as the cliche goes, democrats like to fall in love, while republicans fall in line. mark: i talked to two dozen democrats at this iowa dinner in cedar rapids, every clinton supporters said, my heart is with bernie sanders. the message discipline he has. the fact that there are a lot of people in the democratic party who find him more likable than clinton -- john: he is not a cuddly guy.

they like that. that is dangerous territory for her. mark: if she is not winning in new hampshire, that tells you something. things could change, but no denying that poll. when president obama gave a speech today on iran, when he had his press conference a few weeks ago, he got animated about the topic. he did not get it out of his system then. he went to the american university today to methodically bash the critics of his nuclear deal with iran. president obama: as a result those who say we can walk away from this deal and maintain sanctions are selling a fantasy. instead of strengthening our position as some have suggested, congress' rejection would result

in sanctions unraveling. when we examine the arguments against this deal, none of them stand up to scrutiny. that may be why the rhetoric on the other side is so strident. i suppose some of it can be called knee-jerk partisanship. rhetoric that renders every decision made a disaster, a surrender, iranian terrorists, endangering freedom. mark: it looks like there will be votes of disapproval in both houses. it looks like there will not be enough votes to override a presidential veto. what good does it do the president to be so strong against its critics? john: he basically said the hard-liners in iran are linked up with the republican caucus.

he thinks he has to say to democrats that this is a partisan issue. if you are a good democrat, you are with me. if those people vote the other way on the disapproval measure, he wants to have them with him on the override. he is playing a straightforward party game. mark: he may get one or two republicans in the senate, but that tone is mostly emotion. it may be rallying democratic members of congress, but it is turning off the donors who do not like to hear that rhetoric from him. they are the ones -- because the merits are close -- the donors are the ones putting the most pressure on him. i do not think he is doing himself any favors. there are other ways to rally the democratic party. john: that was a plausible argument.

i do think he is looking at the end game. he is not looking at the vote. he is looking at the override dynamics. mark: if he could get a filibuster in the senate -- john: we are less than 24 hours away from the fox news debates. tuesday, bring the clocks up and re-synchronize your watches. let's talk about djt. democrats are framing the debate around trump as the new face of the republican party. mark, how can republicans stop this event? mark: i think they will mostly do it. once trump moves, they need to move off of it. this is a rare high-profile

opportunity to sell themselves to the public and republican voters. if they do that, maybe they can define the party. john: if they attack him ridicule him, it becomes the whole story of the debate. they need to draw an implicit contrast with trump. there will be stories and coverage written about this and on television that will point out that bush, walker, and rubio are not where trump is. that is the only way to get this across. mark: here's the problem. here's where the democrats have a hand right now. he's not that different from a lot of them. he won't address what should be done with the people in the country illegally. he wants tougher border enforcement. and on economics as well. they may be able to attack him from the right on things like

health care and taxes, but that will only push them further to the right. that's not what the party needs right now. john: they are going to need some courage in this. people will have to take some positions on actual issues. i don't think anybody in the republican party thinks we should have 25% across-the-board import quotas against china. mark: coming up, the republican wizard joins us from cleveland after this word from our sponsors. ♪

john: he is the former chairman of the republican national committee. we suspect he has some pretty good rules for a drinking game to play during the gop debate tomorrow night.

you have seen a lot of presidential debates. this one will be different. who has the most at stake and why? >> donald trump with his numbers has a lot at stake. the folks on the wings, perry and kasich, have a lot at stake. the people in the 5:00 debate have a lot at stake. it is an important night. it is a kick off for the more formal campaign part of the campaign, but i think we make a mistake if we put way too much on the impact of this event tomorrow night. john: do think there is any validity to the notion that those in the undercard debate will benefit from that? >> so many people consume their media on screens and tablets

not sitting in front of a television in prime time, and they will have more time to respond and come across more thoughtful because of the nature of the format. but i suspect that if you asked them if they would switch with somebody in the prime time spot, they would in a heartbeat. i don't think the advantage of being in the prime time slot is as great as it would have been 10 years ago. mark: we talked earlier about hillary clinton. a new story about the fbi looking at her private server. poll numbers in new hampshire, bernie sanders closing in. where are you on her? if she weak?

>> she is weak. i have felt that for some time. she is not invincible as a nominee. i think she is going to be the nominee. on our side we have more supply than demand for nominees. on the democratic side, more demand than supply. whether it is cars, coca-cola, or politics, where there is demand, supply rises to meet it. that's why we are talking about joe biden right now. mark: two things that create weakness for the candidate?

>> the honest and trustworthy numbers. she does not come across as someone who is relatable likable, feels like she can understand my concerns, someone working an hourly wage job for health insurance and food. i do not think hillary clinton comes across as someone who has those solutions and cares deeply about those people. john: you have advised a lot of candidates, been a candidate and under no circumstances have you ever encountered anything like the trump phenomenon. just think about the top-tier candidate. how would you advise the other candidates to handle donald trump tomorrow night? >> i would say get your message out there. all these candidates have to convey their rationale for candidacy, a policy priority or two, and a little bit about themselves, and they need to counterpunch if trump goes after them, but i would not advise them to go after trump. i think you have a very limited

amount of time to convey to the audience something about you your policy, and why you are to be the next president of the united states and why they should vote for you. if you waste time going after trump, that will burn up a lot of those minutes. at the same time, if he goes after you, i don't think you can allow that to stand. you have to demonstrate that you are a candidate who fights back. mark: history would suggest that he may go after one candidate tomorrow night. would you fight back with specifics, humor, ou john: what is the right tone to deal with that attack? >> humor always in those settings is probably -- you know, i think it is the kind of thing where you would want to deflate a bubble maybe, but again, i wouldn't -- i would have something in my back pocket . great to prepared in the event he

does. to the extent the other nine people on the stage can make this more about the issues, the policies, hillary clinton, the economy, and less about donald trump, the better off they will be. that is how i would be looking at it if i were one of them. if i were donald trump, i would be trying to convey a sense of depth on issues and filling in some blanks in that regard. mark: trump has raised the issue of immigration to the forefront. you supported a path to legal status, and that you support it personally, is that correct? >> i was not in the white house during the immigration reform push. even at that time, i said i did not favor a path to citizenship. mark: you didn't support the senate bill that had a path to citizenship? >> i did not support a path to citizenship.

like my father, who was an immigrant who came through ellis island, i think abiding by our laws is important. at the same time, i don't believe we are going to mass deport 12 million people. we have to come up with some accommodation in that regard. i think we can do that. mark: we have republicans on the show all the time and ask them what should you do with the 13 million people here. they all say, we have to focus on the border first. as someone who wants to rebuild the image of the party with hispanic voters, is that a politically smart, courageous position to take, or should we -- they all find some way to self-support, whatever it is. >> from my experience running in a purple state and an important

state in the electoral college, everyone agrees with that. pretty much everyone agrees that we need to do that. the second thing we have to do is reform our visa system. 40% are here by having overstayed their visas. the third thing we need to do is that for those who are here illegally, but have not broken other laws besides immigration laws, then we can give them a fresh visa and they can be here legally. mark: as someone who wants to rebuild the party, would you tell your fellow republicans to stop dodging the third question you just addressed and start having a position, or is dodging it politically smart? >> i think we need to provide solutions, whether people agree with my solution or not, that's fine. i would prefer to see us say this is how we are going to

a dress address the problem. i can tell you that in virginia it resonated. it was accepted and embraced by people from different demographics and different persuasions and political parties even. i do think there is a commonsense solution that we can put forward as a party that helps us to appeal to republican voters. mark: what is the adjective you would use to describe your fellow republicans who refuse to take a position on that issue? >> there is plenty of time. there is plenty of time for them to come up with solutions. they will do that on their own timetable, not what we decide on this program this evening. mark: fair enough. john: ed gillespie. i had so many questions to ask you. up next, what people are typing into google when they want to learn about republican

candidates after these words. ♪

mark: people are really interested in donald trump. don't believe me? google has a map that shows which candidates are searched for the most online. all that red is trump country. we used the auto complete function and did ourselves some good old-fashioned search engine investigative journalism. ♪

>> i do not like green eggs and ham, i do not like them sam i am. ♪ mark: a special episode coming up of what, when? that is coming up.

♪

john: something we didn't get to earlier, the washington post story, bill clinton phoned donald trump. i know you know that is very like bill clinton. mark: the clinton people say that he was calling trump back. they have a relationship. the whole drama of the clinton-trump relationship, this is a slice of it, but it will play out over a long. of time time. john: if somebody asks him for political advice, he gives it. mitt romney wants advice, bill clinton gives it.

mark: thanks for watching. sayonara. ♪

emily: tesla just out with a quarterly earnings report. what is the company hoping to do to wrap up by the end of the year? ♪ i'm emily chang. this is "bloomberg west." fitbit, looking like it's a just fit. also, downgrades, but not all investors are listening as apple shares break a five-day losing streak. china, what does big brother mean for the big t