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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  August 13, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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global market but has this move been long in coming? betty: and why companies are seeing a different tune. houlihan lokey has advised on a town of local deals. we will look at what is next for the investor bank. matt: good afternoon, imf miller, now joined by betty liu -- i am matt miller, joined now by betty liu. day.: kind of a different much different from what we have seen before we saw this rebound. the dow up i-73 points. the s&p higher by .2%.
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by 73 points.up the s&p higher by .2%. a swing high, a rebound, i guess. gains.we do see steady and you see a little bit of selling in treasuries. 30-year inge on the the long bond. but the 10-year at 2.19%. growing demand on everything from clothes to cars last month. retail sales in the u.s. rose when 6% in july. that matched the median forecast of economists. plus, june's number was revised upward. so now we are online. payy: goldman sachs will
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$272 million to settle a lawsuit by investors. they claim the bank misled them about the billions of dollars of mortgage-backed the curious -- securities. matt: a surprise from greece today. the government says the economy unexpectedly group went 8% in the second quarter. the greek economy grew. economists forecast shortages. by economy had been crippled haggling over the bailout. the greek parliament is to vote on the new bailout package. it includes new spending cuts and tax hikes. in -- i'm glad you had highlighted that. nobody expected that. matt: no, not at all. of course, from a very low bar. betty: in the u.s., houlihan lokey began trading today on the
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new york stock exchange under the ticker symbol hli. andbank sold fewer shares offered at prices below the market range. earlier, we spoke with scott beiser. beiser: it will be a great opportunity to get mark lyons, more exposure, help us out with hiring and acquisitions in the continuation of going global. betty: all of the proceeds of this ipo will go to gort exrporation -- gore corporation. matt: comcast is boosting its stake in vox media, a conglomerate website. comcast nbc is making a $200 ,illion investment in vox
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valued at about a billion. bangkok: in this business, you don't know what is going to happen. we want to be prepared to invest, to seize opportunity, to focus on a key initiatives in building a great new media brand of a new generation. we are in eight of them today and we will invest in those to build them up. we will invest in a technology. we will invest in our advertising capabilities. and we welcome invest in our people and infrastructure so we can build a great independent company. vox betterll help connect with old people. betty: older. the network is extending jimmy fallon's contract by six years. since fallon took over in 2014, "the tonight show" has dominated the late-night landscape.
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matt: i bet you the kids all while a check -- all watch it on their ipad on youtube. the i/o state fair is underway and -- the iowa state fair is underway. presidential candidates making their pitch to voters. betty: rory mcilroy is planning on beating in this week's pj championship. how will he fair after an ankle injury? china's central bank signaled support for the yuan and common concerns of investors. for years, it had been holding steady even as other currencies stumbled. matt: gordon chang worked as a lawyer in china and hong kong for two decades and is the author of the of "the coming collapse of china."
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he joins us now with his perspective. let me ask you about what you wrote in your book. is that all coming to had now? chinaang: i looked at joining the wto and that changing the whole structure of china in ways that i felt would make it very difficult for the government to control things. i am about four years out of time, because i said it would take about a decade for this to work, but now we are starting to see it. because china is having trouble controlling its stock market and now with its currency. these crises are coming one right after the other. they are much too close for beijing to control. that's why a think we are basically going to see the end of the chinese economy as we know it. matt: and they are all coming because the chinese government destroyed to conform to some sort of western capitalist organizational structure. mr. chang: maybe not. that chinasts saying wants to conform to the spr,
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special drawing rights rules, which is why they have allowed this band to be a real band. really kepthey their currency at a very high level, probably higher than its true market level. that has caused troubles with exports. at the real problem with the chinese economy is really with slowing growth. it is not at the 7.0 that they claimed for q1 and q2. it is more like the 2.2% they are talking about in beijing. and it may be even lower than that when you look at electricity, rail freight, all the rest of these. there are a lot of negative numbers here. matt: we are showing the reported growth rate here. even the reported growth rate, when you look at it over five years like this, it hurts to look fairly unhealthy. and if you look at it over 15 years, it looks even worse. betty: i would say this. what is wrong with china trying to make some adjustments as it moves to a more free market economy? they are going towards more of a dramatic -- a demand-driven
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economy. they have to adjust their currency. they have to let it be more flexible. yes, there are some short-term problems, but this is also for the long-term good of the country. mr. chang: structural economic reform, they talked about it in november 2013 at the third plenum. they have not been able to implement it. tactics,k to the old monetary stimulus, which really has failed since last november with no measurable effect. stimulusave fiscal which could actually stimulate gdp but would create more debt, which is in even more serious problem. -- which is an even more shares problem. this deval that we saw on tuesday is desperate and isn't going to work. betty: the markets are calmer today. mr. chang: look at what they did. ony had a 1.9% deval tuesday. that will not have an appreciable effect on export and
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economy. we will see and a kim -- a continuing dribbling out. they arest 12 months, somewhere between 520 and $800 billion of capital outflow in china. much of it capital flight. this deval will make things worse because they did not do what everyone says you should do. do it big, do it once, take everyone by surprise, and leave no one with incentive to -- betty: it's just an adjustment compared to their other partners, the other currencies. if they wanted to do a devaluation, they should have devalued 20% or 30% then. mr. chang: absolutely. that would have stopped to the rot. but they couldn't because they are unhedged on their carry trade. essentially, what you've got is a chinese government that does not know what to do anymore, has no tools, watching this economy road. and its public -- economy erode.
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and it's probably going to end up in a contraction in a few months. matt: let me expand on a point that you made. fiscal stimulus is impossible, you said, because they cannot deal with the debt. we have $15 trillion in debt. was the situation -- what does the situation look like in china? when you properly stated and you properly stay gdp, it is probably around 350% of gdp. matt: are you counting, like, i mean, pension subsidies? what do you count to get to 350% of gdp? greece is only 200%. betty: yes. esther chang: what you are looking at his local government local government finance vehicle debt, enterprise debt and wealth management products. you put it together and it is probably more than the 282% that mckinsey said in the middle of 2014. they are now accumulating twice as fast as they are growing if you believe the 7.0% claim.
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but that 7.0% is obviously wrong. as i said, they are probably at 1% or 2%, if they are growing at all. clearly, they don't have the capability to serve this debt, which takes fiscal signals off the table. yes, they could do it, but it would create more problems down the road with the debt. they certainly are not going to do that at this particular time. betty: do you see that anywhere on the streets? matt talks them and i talked to people and they are all wowed by the contribute -- the continued growth they see on the ground, the construction cranes and the developed. construction starts down 19 point 8%. trade is down 6.8%. electricity was up but only by 1.3% and that number was probably inflated. you cannot get to 7.0% with those numbers. atfact, if china was growing 7%, they would not have taken the devaluation on tuesday.
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matt: to the contrary, i hear anecdotal arguments from our reporters on the ground and the chinese working-class people we interviewed who say i am not feeling any growth at all. nimbygetting paid 400 or a day last year and this year is 350. so they are probably seeing a little bit of shrinkage. is one or two upper wanted to down. future results in companies, american and foreign, your starting to see china being factor. a negative when they did the earnings call on the s&p 500, almost half of them cited china negatively. that is a real indication that the numbers are just not there. and that is what you have these problems in the stock market and in the currency. betty: i know your focus is on china, not an economist year in the u.s. or on the u.s.. but could we really be able to -- if china were to fall, is
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-- could we see a recession here? -- chang: well we should see what we should see his china expert in deflation. clearly, we saw the problems in the markets on tuesday and wednesday. and not only stock markets, but commodities and currencies as well. if u.s. companies are not going to be doing very well in china going forward, alibaba's disappointing earnings are the leading edge and that has a big message for apple and a lot of other companies. two or three quarters down the road, consumption in china is obviously going to be a lot lower than it is right now. matt: i just want to open eight andtel -- open a tsingtao watch you guys debate this. we don't have time. betty: is your mind on beer already, matt? matt: i was just thinking i would like to pop a beer and get
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some popcorn. what's the most popular chinese beer? o.. chang: tsingta betty: kissing babies, checking out farmout models -- farm animals and selling their brand. ♪
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betty: let's get straight tobetty: a look at how the markets are trading. we see some momentum starts heading in different directions today. matt: some of my favorite stocks. or rather some of my favorite products. betty: burgers and racecars. that sounds like matt.
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julie: exactly. both of these companies have similar news and yet they are going in opposite directions. tesla announced an auction of shares.es, 2.1 million secondaryshack has a offering at $60 apiece. these declines have in accelerating threat the day. shake shack is down 13% and tesla is up about 2%. in elon musk indicated he might be buying $20 million worth of those shares. matt has been sniffing all day that this is a pittance in the world of elon musk. in the case of shake shack, it has people selling the shares. so that is really the key point of difference here when you're talking about these. a couple of other key points of
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difference is the context of these moves. first of all, you have the context of what the stocks have done going into today and why one is down and why one is up. so this is percent adjusted your today for both of these companies. in the case of tesla, it is about 9% you to date. tesla is about 170% since its ipo. it has sold off from the people were was, but nonetheless, if you are looking at 170% gain in the stock, than the secondary is probably going to have more of a depressive affect. second of all, this is interesting for these two companies. both of them have very high short interest. although tesla's has come down a little bit more and shake shack's is even higher than that of tesla. point?an i just make a you know this. a steady short
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interest that is fairly highlight that, i can tesla's case, it -- like in tesla's case, it becomes a cushion for a fall. betty: right. matt: let's take a look at the top stories. court hast's highest overturned the death penalty in the state, saying it is unconstitutional. that means that the 11 men on the state's death row well-known longer be subject to it. betty: pork chop on a stick. check. heckling a presidential candidate on foreign policy. check. all of that and more at the iowa state fair. most of the 2016 hopefuls will pass through, visit with locals come out for a day of fun, and spending time on the political soapbox to talk with voters. fair is the iowa state john heilemann.
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gainingy you are not pounds eating fried better. why is this even so important for campaigns? john: how are you guys? i am here in davenport, iowa. i have admitted to the state fair. don't worry about my waistline yet. i haven't had a pork chop on a stick or deep-fried on -- deep-fried ice cream. this is important this time around because the iowa straw poll, a big tradition in republican politics, is no longer happening. so everything counts more in iowa now. this is a time when old republican candidates, and as it happens this weekend, pretty much all the democratic candidates are all over the state making a one-to-one appearance in front of a light of retail voters. and that's fair. it provides a lot of. contact, a lot of exposure, and a chance to take questions from
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the people who will get to vote for them in february. 2007, president obama had really good style points here. so manyem to be republican candidates then need to do this kind of thing, but who needs it the most? moment,think at this probably the person who comes in with a most to gain or the most at stake is scott walker, the governor of wisconsin, who all throughout this race so far had been, until this week, had been a leader in iowa. partly because of his neighboring geography, being from wisconsin and being very strong in the northeast corner of the state. but all, we see in a new iowa up all yesterday from the and and orc, donald trump in the lead. scott walker slipped back to third place. he has a lot of work to do in
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iowa. this state fair means more to him probably than anyone on the republican side. betty: thank you so much. enjoy yourself. be sure to tune in tonight for "all due respect was what with john and mark halperin. with johne respect" and mark halperin. matt: we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, all eyes on a rory mcilroy this week you a -- this week. the latest on the tournament next. ♪
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matt: the pga championship, golf's final major championship of the year, is now under way at whistling straits in sheboygan. spoke with fox and i skype.a
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rory mcilroy is in the championship after recovering from an ankle injury. mike: coming into the tournament, he said he was 100%. roundsed three or four in portugal. came here over the weekend, played around on saturday, played sunday, and played practice rounds all through the week. if he is not ready, i would be very surprised. the amount of golf he has played has certainly shown he is ready. and this is a difficult golf course to walk. if you are not ready to play out here, it will show. willis e halley plays when he tees off in the first round later this afternoon. pimm: can you describe the course? it's a links course. who does that favor? mike: it is sort of ailing scores. it is not what we saw at chambers bay in seattle for the u.s. open. there's 1400 sand bunkers out here. edit looks a little bit like the
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moon skate if you look at it from an aerial view. very different. -- a pete dyedye course, a very well-known designer. it favors somebody who hits it long. you have to hit it straight because the fairways are streit -- are pretty tight. dustin johnson hits a pretty straight. right now, it is not favoring tiger woods to well. betty: that was my computer from wisconsin. looks like dustin johnson -- that was mike beutel from wisconsin. looks like dustin johnson is in the lead. matt: i will update you on the way back. ♪
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betty: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. a look at the top headlines in this afternoon. a big increase in business
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inventories in june. companies increased their stockpiles the most in two years. that is generally seen nice -- seen as a sign of confidence. it looks like it will take more than lower gas prices and a steady jobs market to boost america's confidence. the bloomberg consumer comfort index is little change last week and is hovering around a two-month low. americans attitudes on the. butng climate has improved the view on personal finances has stagnated. investors are hungry for growth. when they find it, they are happy to pay up. take wayfarer. shots -- shares shot up, showing rapid sales growth. mr. shah: the thing about home is you don't want to on the same
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items as someone else. you want a unique sofa, you pillows, a unique mirror. so the share is very fragmented. it allows us to be the best online.ion by having reasonable prices, this is why we take share away from restoration hardware and ethan now and and all these folks. -- and ethan now and and all ande folks -- ethan allen all these folks. maybe jessica alba will want to give up. job.job -- give up her day up -- is valued at $1.7 billion. it is up 50% since the last round of fundraising just a year ago. that is a look at some of the stories making the news this thursday. july retail sales came in strong. earnings seem to be touting a different story.
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look at how coal is trading. after a dismal profit forecast for the year. nordstrom is next. after yesterday's miss from macy's, investors have a reason to be concerned, right? joining us now is stephen newman, the former ceo of loman's, and the head of an e-commerce site. great to see you. so what is going on here? you got her earnings that are not that great and then sales numbers that seem to show -- you have earnings that are not that great and then sales numbers that seem to show a mixed bag here. stephen: it depends on who reports and where they sit in this tier of retail. we are going to get some extras of. i think it depends on. -- gets a mixed results. i think it depends on how fresh and new their deliveries are. if they are try to get the message across about their
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fashion and why should someone come in and shop, that should also help. betty: department stores are going to see the brunt of a slowdown or what? stephen: if you listen to what macy's said yesterday, a big part of it was the follow-up into ours him. i think there has got to be -- the falloff in tourism. i think there has got to be a lot of it. --ould say there is really it is up to the retailers to give the customers a reason to come in and shop. what fashions are we talking about? is it a new trend? is it a new color? is it something that they do not already have in a closet? you can say that gas prices have come way down so there is more money to be spent. by where people spending it? if there isn't a reason for people to want something, why are people not coming to shop?
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betty: is it that these retailers are starting to seem very similar as well? how do you break out of that path? stephen: differentiation, right? macy's was very head of the curve on their private label. they were able to distinguish themselves for a very long time. now you have other retailers who are doing their own. but if you are good at that and you can differentiate yourself, that is the key to the success. let's take ralph lauren, it is sold in a lot of places. a lot of companies sell to a lot of different retailers. if your own private label stuff can differentiate you from the rest. and a spirit to have in the store. do you give -- and also the experience you have in the store. do you have great customer service? nordstrom's,ke e-commerce and brick-and-mortar integration. it as twohey look at
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different businesses and they invest in both. iny had done a great job their e-commerce business. but the nordstrom rack is a growth vehicle. betty: and terry lundgren mentioned that yesterday. stephen: i believe that, too. maybe that is another conversation for us. how much down market should macy's go? i think nordstrom rack represents x amount of their sales and probably another amount of their profits. but they are very good at what they do. they have a beautiful store. and they are investing on their e-commerce. that is a smart move. betty: what is it about their e-commerce site that is better? stephen: ease-of-use. that they keep updating and putting new things on their to make it easy for customers to find and navigate. and even shopping. easy returning, ease of delivery, not overly expensive.
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forything should be these the customer, whether it is on the tablet, because more and more sales are coming from a phone or a tablet, versus the desktop. and they should be out on the forefront. betty: so we know that trouble is going on in that space. where do you think -- what is the sweet spot right on retail? stephen: i don't know if there is an exact sweet spot as far as where you can be. we had this conversation so many times and i will always go back to the product. if you are a brand or a store that can separate yourself off and make yourself differentiated from whatever that means, from a product point of view, then you should be able to gain strength in customer base because you have a reason for people to come into your store. if you look like everybody is, forget it. betty: speaking about branding, we just heard the story about jessica alba. stephen: amazing. betty: that is a differentiator, right?
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steven: she has a cachet for her name but she has mother and a name. she had an idea, built upon it, and people buy in which is tried to sell. good for her, right? it's working. betty: stephen, great to see you. steve newman, the former loman's ceo. coming up on the bloomberg market day, sam son is betting that bigger will be better. but with a bigger smartphone be enough to suit -- two's way consumers away from the iphone? ♪
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betty: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. time now for a look at the markets. 15 minutes before the closing bell, julie hyman has more. it blank and you miss the
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change year -- you blink and you miss the change here. --are back first look girl we are back. where we started the day. discretionary cut its gains in half. earlier, it was up better than 1%. that has been the -- still is the best performing group but not enough to push stocks upwards. financials are still higher, but tech is now lower. it had been one of the best performing groups. energy remains the biggest drag overall. that has been true throughout the session. let's look more deeply here. take a look at consumer stocks, the best and the worst performer, which is also the best and worst performers in the s&p 500 today. advance auto parts with earnings that beat estimates, even though sales missed. shares are doing very well.
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calls on the flipside, numbers missing estimates, especially kohl'sparable sales -- on the flipside, numbers missing estimates, especially the comparable sales. stocks, boil once again trading near its lowest in six years. as you can see, down 2.6%. 4216 a barrel. ,ransocean chesapeake energy almost all of the energy stocks in the s&p 500 have been declining today. homebuilders, a different situation there. we have seen a pop in a lot of the holding stocks on the back of the retail sales numbers. we did see construction equipment, materials as part of that number coveted with relatively strong readings. perhaps driving some of the gains today. and finally, netflix is one of the performers we have not gotten to yet today. the stock is trading at a
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record, up about 3% today. as no kagan reporting that it is having its biggest courtly drop in subscribers -- quarterly drop in subscribers. all of the media companies that we heard from last week that seemed to indicate they were feeling the pain, just getting a birds eye view of the industry. betty: thank you so much. athas been a grim week over the dow jones industrial average, technically speaking. a rare death cross happened in its charge. this indicates of the start of a bear market, some say. guess: they have all crunched the numbers and looked at this and, depending on which index, which data set you look at, the t&e, is meaningless to
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tiny -- teeny, tiny to negative. julie: then why do people keep talking about it? guest: you go down a whole list of things that people just assume have meaning. itm: how many people does take to believe this to make it move the market? guest: i don't want to say all. have an traders extremely short attention span. so they will get excited about this today. by next tuesday, it is forgotten about. the mass in this is clear. on an ever is month over the past century, the dow is up about 6i-5 basis points. over any three months -- the dow is up about 65 basis points. bitserage, we are off 15
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over the next month. that's what i mean by slightly negative. usually, when you have a death cross, it means that moment them -- momentum is somewhat negative. a year later, there is no real meaning there. that's why i say meaningless to ever so slightly negative here julie: is all technical analysis bs are only the stuff that doesn't empirically have any predictive power? guest: it's funny you say that. there are various schools of technical analysis, some of which i think have a lot more resonance and a lot more persuasive ability than others. i have yet to be convinced [indiscernible] they are great looking backwards. but looking forward, they are very subjective. on the other hand, there are lots of us of people who look at
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the data, crunch numbers, and say, well, we don't know what the teacher is going to hold. but statistically, this is a high probability when this happens and that happens. the one that is so important to remember, if there is one magic bullet, one indicator that works, forget all the time, most of the time, eventually these things would be arbitraged away. pimm: because people would be using them. to be there is something said about support and resistance lines. m: expressions of buying and selling. guest: when stocks pull back to a certain level, that will reinforce its self -- itself. it is hard to argue with some of the trend followers, especially on the managed futures side. but that is just a very narrow approach and a very specific application. so there are lots of loss of aspects in technical analysis
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that work. but it is not a size and it is not an art. it is somewhere in between and there are better practitioners and worst practitioners, were people run into trouble. that is where they take data points that happened to confirm their existing bias and they start beating the drum with it and thinking this is the magic bullet and there is no such thing. was barryin, that riddle. it's official, james harden of the houston rockets has joined [indiscernible] that is after nike opted not to match a contract offer. it is worth $200 million over 13 years. he will help adidas create on and off the court signature footwear. airbnb is offering a lucky fan the chance to spend a night in boston's fenway park. part of a one night only contest.
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the prize includes two tickets to a game against the new york yankees. after the game, the winner can sleep in none -- in a specially outfitted sweet. caught -- in a specially outfitted suite. and the beverage of champions. wheaties beer. that is your collectors item. those are your top stories at this hour. samsung son is making a big bet on big screens. both have a 5.7-is displayed. display.ch emily joins us now with more. what do we know about these devices? what are some of the key features?
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emily: these two new phones are basically identical except for the s-six edge has that cool wraparound. they didn't have enough supply to meet demand. instead, they made too many of s6 phonen galexy which did not sell too much in the last year. the screen of these two phones is slightly bigger than the iphone numeral's x plus -- iphone 6 plus. over the last year, we know sam son has lost a lot of ground to the iphone. to see if interesting these new features actually move the needle for samsung users.
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an interesting feature and is available in a lot more places than apple pay based on how it works. betty: how important is it -- how is -- how important is it to the success of samsung? emily: it is usually important. samsung sleeping -- slipping usually in china. what samsung is trying to do is not necessarily differentiate itself so much from apple, but all of those cheaper alternatives, like lenovo, like xiaomi. -- we expect apple to unveil their new phone in september, so sam son doing it a little earlier. it will be interesting to see how that plays out. betty: thank you so much. emily will be speaking with the
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jim mccarthy about his buddies partnership with samsung today. ahead, houlihan lokey went public today. but the deal did not turn out so well. find out more. ♪
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been: houlihan lokey has part of a number of high-profile deals, but one is not doing so well, its own ipo. the ipo comes amid increased demand for independent and a m&ace, a -- independent
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advice, a key focus for the company. >> our focus is about doing more more transactions, less about the size of those transactions. what we look at is do we continue to look at those transactions, help our clients in the transformative events that they are working on? as long as that is working, we know we are moving in the right direction. so what happened here with the ipo going in? leslie: we are looking at a deal that was 30% less than they sought out to do. that is remarkable, especially for a company whose job it is to give advice on transactions such as these. from what my sources are telling me, it is a tough deal to do. buying an investment bank isn't the same as by sales in the company, like a lending club or something. this company was founded in the 1970's.
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it is something that doesn't get investors excited when you see all of this macro economic uncertainty, when you see a bunch of other ipos go poorly. lower alibaba, yesterday than expected, revenue was less than expected. they were public a year ago. all of these things make a difference. betty: then why do this now? could they have delayed this? leslie: money. they could not have deleted too much longer. the fallwould get into when people are not paying attention to roadshows and ipos. then you come closer to the risk of the fed raising rates which would impact investors' appetites on something like a houlihan lokey. deal likeook at a this, it is something that the ceo will come out and say we are just glad we got this done. havel of the crazy news we seen this week, especially out of china and all of the financial companies, its peers were down in the financial roadshow as well. betty: what will they do with
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all this capital? : houlihan lokey will not have any of it. it is inside investors. they are cashing out as are some of the again -- the executives and partners and employees in the firm. betty: to make themselves liquid. leslie: absolutely. they are not investing in their business. betty: what about their business? are they seeing expansion? obviously, it has been such a banner 12 months of m&a. leslie: on the revenue side, they have seen growth. thatsay that they do deals are slightly below the radar, not the big megadeals, but more the mid-year deals. they're -- mid tier deals. there is certainly a market for that. for all and give advice different stages of a company's life. so they have the m&a advise, corporate standing advice, separate from m&a.
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they have restructuring advice. and the advise on their own ipo. so they hope that provides the fees for them during all different cycles that we experience. but obviously, it was not enough to convince investors that they should get the full size of their deal. betty: thank you so much. much more ahead on bloomberg television. ♪ . .
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♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...)
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(the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. joe: we're moments away from the closing bell. i'm joe weisenthal. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu in for alix steel.
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♪ scarlet: stocks try to hold onto their gains in the close, but late selling dragging the s&p lower. can investors recover from china's currency devaluation? joe: the question is -- "what'd you miss?" bureau for china receipts. what's next in the currency drama? currencyplus, turkeys -- turkey's currency falls to an all-time low. greek economy grew last quarter, but don't break out the champagne. we've got the charts that show what is really going on. begin with the markets. the dow and s&p 500 little changed, although the dow did swing 140 point today. the dollar bounced off a

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