john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to mike huckabee and his love for pork chops on a stick, it is not what should be for breakfast. ♪ mega greetings from saint ambrose university and davenport, iowa. john and i are in iowa now. 21 of the 22 major presidential candidates are in this state between now and next week. they are here primarily for the state fair that is in des moines, where we will be over the next few days. the fair started today. we are in davenport because jeb

bush did an event today on foreign policy. more on that in a bit. jeb will be at the soapbox tomorrow. almost all the candidates will be. john, major week in iowa. no straw poll this year, but the fair has drawn almost everybody to this state. tell me one thing you are looking forward to during this weekend in iowa. john: the fact that there is no straw poll makes the fair even bigger. on the republican side, i am looking forward to seeing scott walker. he is now, according to cnn, third place in iowa after being in first place all year long. he is taking a beating at the hands of donald trump and ben carson. this state is a must win for him. him coming in here trying to pick up ground and reconnect, i want to see how well he does. mark: i think walker does have a big challenge, because he was too low-key at the debate. breaking through at the fair is hard to do. the thing i am looking for that

relates to that is trump. mr. trump is going to the fair tomorrow. john: do you think you will break through? mark: he will break through. he is bringing his helicopter. still questions about whether people will get free rides, but trump dominates no matter what. my question is, does anyone try to get into the storyline, or do they just basically say if trump brings his helicopter to the fair, surrender. john: he is flying a helicopter into des moines. he is going to get off the helicopter and stand with the butter cow. you will see the picture and footage of trump with that butter cow for 48 hours straight on cable. here is the other thing i will be looking at on the democratic side -- hillary clinton will be here. we will see her at this dinner tomorrow night up in clearlake. she will be with other

democratic candidates. it's weird, right? iowa, the state that humbled her in 2008, is now the state she is counting on to stop bernie sanders. she still has a lead here over sanders. she is losing to him in new hampshire. suddenly, this is her firewall. who would have ever thought iowa would be hillary clinton's early state firewall? mark: on the democratic side, i am also looking at something at that dinner, who is bernie sanders. he is the last cattle call in this state. i thought he had a weak performance. he was not at his best. i think if he comes in here and is head-to-head with her at this dinner, i think he could start to do better in this state if he sends the message that the electricity and fire he is brought to other parts of the country he can bring here. john: on the other side of the event inhas an boone, not far from des moines. if only a few hundred people show up, that can be a huge blow

for bernie sanders. mark: ben carson drew a big -- a couple thousand people to a des moines rally, so it is possible to draw big crowds. john: let's move on to our next topic -- the soapbox. of all the things at the iowa state fair, i think the thing we all prize most, beyond the butter cow and the fried pork chops is the soapbox. you get up, you give a speech, and then, in front of anybody who happens to come, you take some questions. everyone subjects them to it except for a couple of candidates this time around. mike huckabee went this morning. mr. huckabee: this is called q&a . that means question and answers in your world, but for me it means questions and avoidance. you ask questions, i will try not to do anything that will end my presidential aspirations here today at the soapbox. john: that was huckabee, trying to do the soapbox. martin o'malley is going to be number two.

that's happening now. is this a quaint little iowa tradition that is all cute and no one cares, or could this have a real impact on a candidates fortune? mark: the des moines register says huckabee did not get a lot of questions. the soapbox is a special thing. the register lets anybody ask questions, the format is very open, and it is one of the big testing grounds on how you handle hecklers and hostile questions. stand -- the democrats sneend a lot of hostile people. hillary clinton and mr. trump are not subjecting themselves to the soapbox. john: most of these guys, even when they do town hall meetings, they are basically friendly crowds. republicans go to republican events and democrats go to

democratic events. mark: if you are interested in seeing how these candidates handle a very tough testing ground, go to the des moines register website, look at the schedule. -- an unusualbout event. it is right out there, not just tough questions, but every political reporter in the state is there watching. john: under the very hot sun. it is a very unique thing in our politics, for sure. mark: a long way from here, there is a big political issue, because for the last three days , china has been devaluing its currency in relation to the dollar. since tuesday, it has been lowered by 4.4%, the biggest drop in decades. skeptics say this is meant to boost the country's exports to help a sagging economy, and this clearly can have an impact on america. presidential candidates here are taking notice. these are the reactions so far. mr. trump: how can we compete?

theirontinuously cut currency. they devalue their currency. i have been saying this for years. they have been doing it for years. this is not just starting. ms. fiorina: their people have accepted a totalitarian regime in exchange for economic growth. china's ability to keep growing is at the core of their power. mark: later, we will see what jeb bush had to say, but john, what effect do you think the chinese currency devaluation can have on the presidential race? john: it is fodder for the populists of the left and right. bernie sanders and donald trump will speak about this. -- will make common cause on this. it puts anyone in the center -- hillary clinton, jeb bush -- in a difficult place. mark: hillary clinton talked about china and trade issues in the last campaign very aggressively. i think it can benefit clinton and maybe bush. people who can talk about these

issues in a sophisticated, but accessible way actually do better, because most americans recognize we have an economic imbalance with china, but what does it actually mean? i think that is the challenge for all these candidates. john: it raises the bar for those guys. if they do it well, it is a home run, but it is tricky, because you have to explain complex international economics. it is not actually a black-and-white issue, so if you can get the gray right, you're in good shape, but if not, you could be muddled. mark: absolutely. we are going to have a lot more here from our iowa return -- road trip in davenport talking about jeb bush. matt strong is going to join us. coming up, our conversation from earlier with jeb bush after this word from our sponsors. ♪

♪ mark: welcome back. we are in davenport, iowa, where jeb bush participated in a

forum is sponsored by americans for peace, prosperity, and security. it is a series of events with former congressman mike rogers. it is to get people to focus on national security. we will show you a little bit of the forum that jeb bush did, answering questions, but after the event john and i caught up with him and asked him about cuba and more. do you think it will be too late for the next president to make the kind of changes you want to see in cuba if president obama continues? mr. bush: no, because congress is not going to lift the trade embargo. there is still leverage to be able to advocate reforms inside of cuba and create a more free society. mark: what can happen in the interim that you would be concerned about? mr. bush: i don't know. i don't think congress is going to change this, so the president can't unilaterally open up trade. if you eliminate that, you are taking all the leverage that exists for us to create an environment where cuba moves towards freedom.

we are legitimizing a regime that will allow it to continue to oppress its people. it is not the right approach. mark: just to clarify, are you worried about the chinese motives -- the motives of the chinese government and what they are doing? jeb bush: yeah, it was not an act of kindness to hack into the server that had 23 million files, some of which were required for security. mark: i'm talking about currency, though. mr. bush: i think we will have to see how that plays out. there are significant challenges in the economy right now that could be the motivation for this, but also, if you see continued growth, then this is a provocative act. mark: is it bad for american workers? mr. bush: it is not necessarily bad for american workers if it relates to weakness in the chinese economy. that is the part that has to be answered. mark: thank you. john: that's the kind of nuance

from jeb bush we were just talking about in the china currency issue. donald trump knows it is bad for test american workers -- bad for american workers. jeb bush might not be. what do you think? mark: populist versus establishment. jeb bush's father understands china. in the forum, he talked about china, and he understands the culture there. at the time populism is riding high, can you afford to be nuanced on china? john: i bet you a pork chop on a stick that donald trump will punch him in the nose about that over the next 24 hours. the first time he gets in front of a camera, he is going to say, "jeb bush thinks this will be good?" earlier, there was the event where jeb bush talked at a moderated q&a session about foreign policy. one of the things we found most striking was him talking about his brother's legacy in iraq. let's listen to that and talk about it. >> isn't it also the case that if we had not invaded iraq, we would not be going with isis?

mr. bush: who knows. this is such a complicated hypothetical, so i cannot answer that. i will tell you that taking out saddam hussein turned out to be a good deal, and the search but a the need -- you know, faulty intelligence, the lack of securing iraq at the beginning, which would have been helpful -- put that aside. i am critical and think people have every right to be. in 2009, iraq was fragile but secure. its mission was accomplished in the way that there was security there, and it was because of the heroic efforts of the men and women of the united states military that it was so. that is a fact. john: i am not a big fan of gotchas and pulling things out of context, but that was a discussion on iraq and his brother. he used the phrase "mission accomplished." i think that might leave a mark. mark: democrats are already jumping on what he said.

-- i haveigh of not not seen anyone yet highlight the "mission accomplished" part. they are already saying he is being an apologist. i actually thought he was as strong today as i have seen him in talking about the mistakes that were made, what he supports, what he doesn't. it is an impossible case to make, because the last republican president who engaged in an unpopular war was his brother. but i thought today he was confident and said what he really believes in every -- about every issue in a non-stuttering way. the mission accomplished thing i am sure he wishes he hadn't said. john: tonally, you're right. substantively, he will get picked apart for saying things like the provisional agreement should be renegotiated, when in fact that was his brother -- the exit in 2011 was an agreement that his brothers administration struck -- people are going to pick apart the facts that he used. in terms of not something -- not sounding queasy, like he was going to vomit -- he did better

tonally. mark: jeb bush was also asked about civil liberties, national security, and enhanced interrogation techniques. let's listen. mr. bush: i believe that it was the metadatarepeal provisions of the patriot act , which took place this last year. there is not any evidence that i can find that civil liberties were violated, that people's privacy was violated. i do think in general that torture is not appropriate and not as effective, and the change of policy that my brother did and was put into executive order for by the president was the proper thing to do. i also would say that right after 9/11, we were attacked. my brother, and i'm not saying this because i am a bush, i am saying this because i love my country just like everybody in this room, i proud of what he am did to create a secure environment for our country.

mark: civil liberties versus national security is a big -- broiling debate within the party. not just with chris christie and rand paul. this is another case that the answer symbolizes as the adult in the room. that is a center-right position on how to balance these things. if that is what he is selling -- i don't know if the voters will buy it, but that is what he is selling. nuance on complicated issues. john: right now, rand paul, who is the extreme opposite, is not getting much attention. it doesn't seem like there is that big of a market in the republican party right now. we know there is some libertarian part of the party that is upset, but he is taking the same position he would if rand paul had caught on fire. mark: but he is talking about civil liberties as something he truly values, not how chris christie would do it, like throw it out the window, but he makes this clear to the audience in a very reasonable format. he understands the issues. john: also, on enhanced interrogation he is in a place that a lot of people will be so

-- will be sympathetic to. i am not, but his argument is i don't think we need it anymore and should not have it, but i will not rule out some circumstances in which it might be necessary. that is a big majority position with the american public. mark: he also pushed back on the questioner who suggested the metadata gathering has not stopped any terrorism, and he said i have talked to people directly involved and they say it is a better tool to have. i think if he runs against hillary clinton, it will be a challenge for him, because she knows a lot. there is no one in the republican field with the exception of lindsey graham who can stand toe to tebow with him on this. john: it is not clear that hillary clinton will have a different position on that substantively, so it may not be an issue. she's not particularly a libertarian on those issues. mark: all right. coming up, we have a big discussion with the former chairman of the iowa republican party.

one of the organizers of this conference. we will talk jeb, donald, all things iowa with matt strong right after this. ♪

john: just today, here in davenport, is former iowa gop chair matt strong. thank you for coming out. this is your event in part. how do you think jeb bush did? matt strong: i thought he did great. he had clear answers as to what his stances are on national security issues. i think it is events like this talking about substance that will make the difference. i appreciate governor bush being the fifth one we have done with candidates in iowa so far. mark: national security has been enduringly important issue for voters in this state and for

republicans around the country. what do you think republicans in iowa want to hear and see and their nominee in terms of national security ideas and credentials? matt strong: it goes back to the freedom forum in january, where applause lines were not immigration or social issues, but standing steadfast with israel, calling radical islam what it is. i think it is who will prosecute the war on terror aggressively. mark: how do you prove that, though? matt strong: that is what we are going to find out. that is what we are trying to do with these forums. let's go beyond that. so you want to support israel and push back on putin's aggression? going to deal with the china economic partner that will also probably be our biggest security threat for the next generation? let's do these forums around the state, really drill down, and make sure the next president is prepared. john: taking off your national security hat and putting on your political hat, does it surprise you that jeb bush is down where he is right now, around 5% in iowa? matt strong: it doesn'really surprise me. 3/4 of iowaably

caucus-goers have not decided who they are going to be with. we are waiting to see not if or fever breaks this summer, but remember, for years ago when i was chair, we were talking about bachmann and perry. mark: do you think donald trump can win the iowa caucuses? matt strong: with a field of 17, you can't write anyone off. the field will get much smaller. with trump, watch what they do with the people who are drawn to him. are they trying to sign them up as precinct supporters? to stand up at church and say, this is the guy i want as commander-in-chief? mark: just to clarify, you do think he can win the caucuses. matt strong: i think he has as good of a chance as anyone. he has 100% name id. an arguably unlimited bank account.

the question is, can we take -- can they turn these political voye ours -- lawyers -- urs into traditional caucus-goers? john: the person who has been the front-runner of the entirety of 2015, scott walker, has now dropped down to fourth place in the most recent poll. what explains that? matt strong: governor walker's rise for most of the year was drawn from two different groups -- establishment republicans, who loved the fact that he took it to the unions in wisconsin, but also conservative evangelicals. but i think the crowd who is really agitated, the antiestablishment mood right now , that energy is with donald trump and ben carson. big 10 country. it will be a cloud of dust for the next five months. i will not be measuring the light post on governor walker

right now. mark: right now, who of the two -- who are the two or three top organized candidates in this state? matt strong: ben carson has a surprisingly strong organization. if you go to a republican event, odds are you will see a carson campaign or super pac signing up volunteers. mark: more than trump, walker, and cruz? matt strong: he had two dozen people in des moines this past weekend. trump, the key is, are they turning the people who show up international volunteers? when it comes to traditional organizing, governor walker has a robust organization, and even governor bush. they are solidly call -- solidly, quietly and together the type of organization you need to be successful. john: we have talked before on how donald trump will fly in with a helicopter and stand with a butter cow and get a lot of attention. many of these guys are going to be competing for attention. what in the past has been the best soap box strategy for the iowa state fair, how you break through? matt strong: a helicopter is a great start. it will be tough to top that.

mark: if you are not john: -- john: if you are not donald trump. matt strong: don't drop a pork chop on the ground, don't eat a corn dog in a way that draws of -- draws up ridicule. john: i don't know what you are referring to. matt strong: i don't know how you break through the trump noises weekend, but we will see if we have trump, clinton, and sanders on the same day. john: matt strong, thank you for coming. we are always happy to have you on the show. after the break, more from our roadmap. ♪

♪ mark: tomorrow night, we will be live in clearlake with all the latest from the iowa state fair. also, a conversation with martin o'malley, a head of that big

democratic dinner. are on twicer, we a day, at 5:00 and 8:00. we are live on bloombergpolitics.com. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

emily: samsung unveils its latest challenge to apple, but will a bigger screen and mobile payment system win over iphone users? ♪ emily: i'm emily chang, and this is "bloomberg west." tinder's twitter meltdown ends with a ceo swap, but will global leadership changes fix its pr nightmare? and tesla comes up with a plan to make investors happy. all of that ahead. first to our lead. samsung is doubling down on big screens, announcing tww