tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 17, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT
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moments away from the closing bell. another selloff in commodities boosting demand for u.s. treasuries. u.s. stocks turning higher and market currencies tumble. joe: the question is, what you miss? getting worse.p what does this mean china at our? frenzy.eding why salmon is such a big deal these days. joe: you take a closer look at norway. troubled times for it was an interesting -- for a once who make petro state. let's put all of this into perspective because volume is right your
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average down 24%, the nasdaq off by 15 for a son. it is a summer monday. lira's, they are all fighting again today. emerging market stocks all into another multiyear low and that has been the scene. both continued today. stocks,e homebuilder rallied after we had homebuilder sentiment coming in better than estimated. you also have oil in a really interesting. joe: i want to dive into my terminal. last night we got some japanese gdp data. it is just another thing that is kind of sad. it was better than what was expected, but still another negative quarter.
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when i want to look at is this chart. the japanesene is unemployment which is at its lowest level in 20 years despite the fact that you regret this slocum unemployment is extremely low. does that remind you of any economy nearby? u.s. gdp has been disappointing that the unemployment rate has continued to be better than what the fed expected. people are asking we're turning japanese as an economy? i want to talk about china and what copper is actually telling you right take a magnifying glass when he comes to commodities demand in china. here is the futures curve in the shanghai futures exchange. now, loweres right prices and future. to either nineg
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of supply or to demand. take a look when you compare to this is what the london futures current looks like lower , higher prices in the future. the points to weaker demand. what does that tell you? or chinese demand a strong than expected? michael shaoul joins us now. s saying that the one thing that matters is the high-yield. : is unusual to
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have a relatively well-behaved equity market. it is sideways. energy has really let the way and high-yield materials has widened the lot. what is interesting is there is weakness and non-commodity sector there's -- sectors. a lot of professional investors are struggling with this question of more turbulent great is energy a single sector? a --e entering joe: what is the answer? : probably the latter. developedf the world trying to get up to the u.s..
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i think we are at risk of spilling over into the general equity market correction. alix: what would be the catalyst? michael shaoul: too much pressure on too many portfolios. in a liquidation in this market will send the market lower. lower prices for loan were selling pressure. you do not to have -- need to have a very specific pressured the concern is out there. in one of uncertainty as to what is happening in china. in allege that you had a investment move with a lot of and parts of it the whole of the commodity sector. 1998 saw a big tents upon it but it was short-lived -- panic but it was short-lived and if we saw looking like that again but would it layout similarly? michael shaoul: i do not think it is the end of the bull market.
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at the marketed better. that would be similar multiweek event. you'll get a response from the substantial banks. i think the fed is set of to raise rates in september, all things being equal. i think they want to raise rates. think of the markets are in turmoil in mid-september they would not. .hat would be the response alix: what about europe, what about japan? are in waitul: they and see mode. the pboc is in the middle of the conventional easing cycle. with bettert up configuration a few months ago they are somewhat behind the curve. if you are looking for the
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central bank to play the role of alan greenspan in 1998, they are right in the middle of what is going on right now. joe: in the u.s. we have seen some divergent sectors in energy. from the perspective of a u.s. investor, are there any areas that you like that of that others? : material upside versus expectations. i think people have accepted that it did not fall apart a year-and-a-half ago. they're just beginning to adjust the idea that we may have a second leg of the melting market here. -- housing market here. turin, then it really gets quite interesting. the question a few months ago was with would be turned take place? certainly you had a couple months of good homebuilder confidence, which at the very least suggests that the
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homebuilders themselves see a material pickup in demand. alix: how close are they to a rate hike? : if you had al general were they would go down with the market but they are doing these many volatility events that we have had in the last few weeks and they have ignored it. alix: i want to ask you about the baltic dry index because it really tracks the commodity shifting distribution all of the world. , wheret 36% for the year you have the bloomberg index off by a was 56%. michael shaoul: did his super volatile. since the chinese equity market collapse most of the trade commodities have a big financial liquidation in the commodity sector. things that are not really
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oraded on exchanges substantial financial liquidation. it is like a tick in the index can say that iron ore suggests that the chinese economy has been stable after the equity market collapsed rather than's bidding off down a black hole. joe: you warned us about the possibility that equities could shelter in credit, we could have a 1990 you give it. anything also teach you up at night? : is that it does not happen. that it goes straight up and representing.ot i think a lot of investors are hoping that it does not do anything dramatic where we take a couple of days a between now and the end of august.
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1990's. will we see capital controls? economy is weak, the general selloff, the commodities mother is a political scandal i've said it before, but they have really taken advantage of the currency weakness. right to your top headlines this afternoon. the associated rest is a computer bridge at the irs is much bigger than originally additional 220,000 potential victims had information stolen from a website. it was part of a sophisticated scheme to use stolen identities to claim fraudulent refunds. the federal reserve bank of dallas has named robert kaplan as their new president and chief executive officer. he will replace richard fisher
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2005 2 president from 2015. universalsst universities straight out of compton smashed records. it took him one and 62 million dollars in america. behinded in third place with mission impossible. those are your top headlines. joe: one of the biggest agricultural companies in the world just went long finish. paid 1.5 billion for a company that makes fish food. feed toally food to salmon, because farming salmon is incredibly hot. alix: this knob accounts for
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half of fish consumption, just up from 1990. see what salmon production was all about and how --portage that feed in important that feed is. salmon. it is pink, high in protein, and americans need more than one billion pounds a year. and most of the, is farmed. company the only operating on the east coast, and providesnd growing, it a huge opportunity for firms to grow to scale. in nature, salmon lay eggs of freshwater lakes. in a farm, the start in a hatchery. they are so small. >> they will double about every two weeks. alix: figure four times more likely to survive than in the wild. when they get big, they move outside. 6000, and thebout
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average weight is about 100 grams. called broad code. this is just one farm. alix: how many fish in each fan? -- pen? >> 25,000. they use essential feeding systems and an underwater camera manager -- monitor. this prevents overfeeding the fish. expenses forggest the company. at 10 pounds, they've been up to wind up on your plate and 48 hours.
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for you but one analyst says globally about by 2015, we will be eating 18,000 tons of salmon a year. than we eatingre today. you have to find in some way. someone just paid one point $5 billion for fishery, but you were ahead of the curve. alix: you have to make the feed, which is why you could argue they wanted to make it. joe: do you notice the difference? it dependso, but upon the kind of fish that you like. the reason why salmon is so hot and so popular when it comes to eating protein from this is that it has a high-yield. it has a large wedding and a
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small head so you get 70% off of seven where you on other fishermen to 30%. norway and chile are the countries that are killing it. joe: what are the other environmental concerns? what do people say about this? alix: that they will end up messing up the ground with that they're going to go to the bathroom and destroy the area, then they're going to destroy other wildlife reviews the same kind concerns. the area we were in a very tight regulation. they operate more in canada as well. their pens were -- that was a whole other segment. we will have to do that when we get back. when we come back, the end of an era.
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alix: i alix steel. the break we asked which bank is dumping its al assets. alix: it is goldman sachs. is clearly something about the commodities super cycle. joe: everywhere you look it is bad for commodities. that is exactly the push. alix: you're going to take our focus in the norway today. forget the financial crisis, for is much worse
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scandinavian's richest economy. is chiefandresen economist and joins us now from oslo. thank you for being with us. and you take a look at the next four down, most of it comes from oil and gas at how bad will this get? the incomedresen from oil and gas is about 45% . like and he manufactured goods it is about 50% of that as well. this is the single most important integer growth in the economy. oil prices are really devastating for us. declinehave seen a big with a selloff in the commodities. how much further does it have to go to stimulate the export sector? : the risk isesen
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really on the downside it is absolutely because of the poor outlook. tuesday week,ng and it could go weaker. weakened some 50% versus the dollar since 2013. it has weakened a lot already. we think it has further to go, actually. help the new widget export sector, but what is happening to the oil price is hard to compensate for. alix: can you quantify that forest? how much money will norway lose? : our fourndresen for nine- forecast is versus the euro. that is basically where we are out. but i think actually that the risk is on the down sign. with this to quantify
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actually manage for the norwegian economy because it is totally dependent upon where the new level for the oil price is $50, then istays at think the norwegian krone has much further to go, to weekend. there is huge volatility in the editing that volatility will persist until we are more certain about where the oil price is going to end. even before this oil crash there have been a lot of talk about the norwegian housing market and how it looks to some like a housing bubble that makes the u.s. housing bubble look tidy. think with this economic decline that the housing market is in particular risk? : it ise-andresen definitely a worry, but has also been driving market for a number of years is demand outstripping supply. very high immigration.
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just a this is not bubble, and his actual demand for housing that is very real. this is worse than the pressure areas. at 172 housing prices now in the most oil actuallyeas, they are falling. this could be a great concern going forward, adding to the other risks. bleakyou lay out a scenario for norway, but we always ask what keeps you up at night. what worries you? kari due-andresen: it is obviously this right then we are also worried about what is china doing at the moment when the growth potential there even weaker than the number suggest. suggest they are looking for every means they can use to develop the growth. if chinese growth should slump even further than we expect it could leave the oil price to stay low for even longer. that would be very bad news for the norwegian economy.
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alix: do not miss this. tomorrow the turface central-bank decision is out . this is why it matters you've seen the turkish lira falling to records versus the dollar. the dollar rises, the lira falls. it is the third biggest drop in a major currency this year. housing data out tomorrow morning. do not miss it.
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