alix: moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. alix: u.s. stocks closing lower after the selloff. shares in change high dropped the most. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss." oil rebounds from the six-year low, so much uncertainty and turmoil. alix: reading the tea leaves inside the dark art of decoding

the fed. we are getting hipts of a rate hike. joe: we'll talk to a texas bank chief about oil, housing, banking and how the lone star state does it differently. alix: we begin here with stokes. the dow jones industrial average falling, ending that three-day advance and it was about the commodities, energy, materials, all leading the declines lower. on the upside, those home builders keep killing it. hot, hot rally. up 16% so far this year. joe, we need that in the market, because if you have the bioteches and the media stocks rolling over, you need another sector to lead. joe: another theme that we keep alking about, emerging action, the central bank of turkey held raids. we saw their currency fall. another bad day.

like that story every day. alix: emerging markets currency as important impact on commodities. take a deep dive into my terminal to talk about wal-mart and how much higher expenses are going to get. what you are looking at are these blue bars are revenue growth, sales declining there on a percentage growth. and these orange bars are operating expenses. operate ping expenses far outpacing sales. two reasons. wages and people are stealing. so first of all, they are raising their wages to $10 next year and they have a lot of inventory that is lost or mismanaged and people putting meat in their pants and walking out the door. joe: people focus on the wage number because to a lot of fanfare, they talked about the wage increases and now they are talking about how much that

costs and investors aren't crazy about it. alix: they raised it to 24 cents a share. so the cost incrementally increasing there. joe: you mentioned the home builders are on a tear. we got fresh data and the number was good. this number we are looking at specifically is single-family housing starts. it's had its best in years. 2007 is the last time single family starts were this good and what is remarkable is that for a long time people re saying housing is coming back but it's all apartment dwellers are. but now those free-standing homes are coming back. alix: that's correct. joe: we are returning to the old ways of housing. alix: we have a global energy $71 a st and he says barrel at the by the end of the

year. how? if you look at global production, it continues to stay very steady. guest: and there are evidently many, many factors trying to take this market down and have succeeded so far. eight, nine-years lowest. and so i admit, my target, it looks very, very ambitious. the thinking behind it is that production is rolling already. we know it's higher than we thought it's going to be at this stage. but it is rolling, but the question is how fast, how far. we think the united states crude oil production goes 9 billion a day. number two, demand is growing, and you talked earlier about housing starts. emerging market demands, not great, but not bad either.

still growing. the consumer in china especially. thirdly, europe is not a headwind. and that's the first time in five years. and then the next big shoe to drop that hasn't really dropped is we need to see the rates kick in. if the industry spends this much less and if you know that the underlying rate is 4%, we need somehow to add four million barrels a day outside america and opec just to stand still. that isn't going to continue to happen. joe: your colleague has a fantastic chart. guest: he's smart. alix: did he pay you to say that? joe: oil barrel markets lasts a long time. the blue areas are long. you can see so far this has been very short. while will this not be like the ther oil barrel markets?

guest: that last orange blip, that wasn't supposed to happen. it wasn't supposed to happen. in 2007, we had that discussion. and then after 2008, evidently, never going to back there. five-year average, over 100 bucks wasn't supposed to happen. so i don't want to say this is distant, but something happened in the last 10 years, about the upswing and demand. both of those are difficult to capture with the smart models that andrew runs. there is a sort of friction. he has been more bearish and more correct on oil. i keep thinking there is a balance that has to happen. so if you are willing to argue that the outside will fund the

industry, bingo, i'm wrong. if the industry funds itself, higher price. alix: when you look at the emerging market currencies, isn't that the problem for the oil markets because you have the local currencies so low that deflation costs are real, why not producing? guest: that is a fair point and if you look at the demand data what was a trend, it's about 4%. last four to five years, we got used to 3%. this year, they have barely taken over 2, 2.5%. emerging growth rates are at cyclical lows. the worry is and my rosey-colored view could be wrong that we go from 2 to something negative.

and entirely possible that we go into something like a recession nd this is one of the symptoms of that approaching. joe: the currencies, stock markets, for now, you don't think that is going to spill into a broad-based recession? guest: i don't think so. across the l demand smaller asian economies and africa and middle east. and i'm getting information from all these places. if i have a series of countries that floated to really high levels on commodity investing and the air is out of that balloon, that's one chunk of change. alix: take aside the actual demand and look at the supply. part of the reason that oil supply has not shut in is that local currencies have tanked so

much, you are looking at deflation costs maybe 50%. why would someone start pumping oil? guest: russia, oil production, beginning of the year, we said it's going to go out and chinese oil production is also growing. canadian, production has not fallen yet. other areas, in brazil, the growth has stopped. a whole bunch of reasons that have nothing to do with the currency. it's a quilt, many many different areas. we know that the big oil companies are not doing very well at this point and going into next year, they are going to have hard choices to make. the capital spin has begun to come down. before we see the production results, another couple of

quarters are going to pass. but in some areas, you are right, production will continue to grow. joe: time for our question, what keeps you up at night? guest: i have three kids, number one. but you don't want to hear about that. a recession is coming and somehow we're missing it and something on the macro jumps. that is area of worry number one. number two area is i deal with production and the middle east and the middle east is not a stable place. ars spreading. a war between -- pick anyone in the middle east, those are the kinds of issues i worry about. joe: love to have you back here. alix: $75 in third quarter of

2016. oming up, we mentioned the travails of asia's currency and there is a surprised winner. who is it?

alix: which unlyingly industry is thriving due to the flailing malaysia ringgit. joe: they sell in dollars, their costs of production have gotten cheaper due to the decline of the ringgits. alix: one analyst says 90% of the company's sales are in

dollars. let's get to the top headlines. there is a settlement in the big data breach over at target. hackers stole credit and debit card information from 110 million target customers. the retailer will pay $67 million to visa -- bank cards. new ob men menendez of jersey said we will vote against the agreement. senator schumer is the other. in "washington post," republican bob corker of tennessee called n congress to reject the plan. lix: e-cigarette use among teens will more than likely will go to tobacco products. national data shows that vapping

is popular among teens. d we want to update you on recent news. analysts say the increase is improved relationship with creditors. and waiting for national parallelment to approve the deal as well. and those are your top headlines. another big story, fed minutes are out tomorrow and we are looking if chairman yellen will raise rates. what do the minutes actually mean? joe: you think you have a meeting, a board meeting, someone takes some notes and you get to see what happened. it's not the case with the fed minutes. it is a loose summary and not very specific and they can be edited afterwards and people can make complaints and some stuff gets taken out. it's another way of what the fed is thinking, but not a strict

definition. alix: they can go through three revisions and all the members can approve it as well as the fed chair. joe: people get obsessed about specific lines in the minutes. alix: what people are actually for? i was looking through notes, things that the minutes will show a preference one way or the other for september or december. the minutes for the meeting is having that good employment data and could see a sway there. joe: remember how people get obsessed? in the last statement, there was the word some improvement in the labor market. people are going to look at the word some. did it mean nothing? did it mean we are getting closer or they need to see some more improvement in the labor market. people are going to be recruit niesing the minutes. alix: when we qualify how many presidents were on board with

what kind of call, like, many is greater than several but fewer than most. there is a ranking hierarchy to pay attention. if they felt many, that would be a strong indication. joe: it's terminology, the high clearing of fed, people know about it. don't notice these things. for the fed watchers, these are crucial things. a cautionary tale about social media. last year researchers said bank of england tried to monitor social media. but the conversation they found was something totally different. ♪

alix: before the break we asked what tripped up the bank of england to monitor twitter traffic? >> they were monitoring r.b.s. the chatter they noticed was not related to a bank or to scotland but news related to a minnesota ikings running back. it makes sense and there is a lot of work being done. it's really tough. and this is a great example. alix: lessons learned. oil prices are down and oil companies are relying on bank loans to keep them afloat. what does that mean for the banks? there is a bank in texas that

16% of its loans are in the energy sector. and dick evans is here. what is $40 oil mean for your business? guest: we were making a lot of money at $40 oil five years ago. we primarily bank independents that we know well. and so we know what they are doing. they are adjusting their plans and adjusting their capital investments and so there's no doubt, you have to adjust quickly. one of the things that happened in the first quarter of this year was how fast the energy cut their costs. and while that's painful to people losing jobs, it is -- it's the right thing to do. alix: what's coming up in october is what i'm excited about and when banks are going to determine how much to give to oil companies. ctigroup say it will be lower

than in april. what are you going to do? guest: when you read the determinations of lower prices and see where your certainly there will be squeeze. it is interesting when we did it in march, we had about 20% went down. about 10% went up. so it depends on how successful the drill has been. one of the things that is pretty interesting in all of this cost cutting is how improved the efficiencies have been. and in other words, finding more oil for less cost. joe: i want to step back and talk to something not related to oil and housing, because texas didn't have a housing collapse anywhere near on the same level as the rest of the country and look at the percentage of non-prime loans that went under, it didn't rise to the national level. texas of text as's --

and prevented ricky loans, where do you fall on that question? was there sound regulation in texas that prevented things from getting out of control or something else? guest: i think it's something else. the mortgages, nothing there. we got out of the business in he year 2000, out of residential mortgage first liens but it gets down to a good economy. we have been growing faster than the united states for years and years. and even after this downturn in jobs, we'll grow about 1% this year versus 3.5% this year versus the united states at 2%. so we still get growth. in january this year with oil prices falling 50%, people thought texas would disappear in the gulf of mexico.

joe: that regulation story, that's not it? guest: not really, no. alix: what about the effects to the housing market and the rest of the economy when it comes to oil. it will affect retail and housing, what do you see in your portfolio as the trickle down? guest: we haven't seen it. if you look at it, you still got job growth and lots of the workers moved to the petro chemical business. and it's very strong. those plants are run on natural gas. they are big exporters. so you had a worker shift and because of the growth in texas, we continue to see good growth. i mean it's not 3%. joe: basically one month from now or a little less, we could get the first rate hike since the financial crisis.

what do you think about monetary policy? is this the right time, should they wait? guest: they have been too loose, too long. you keep rate waiting for the perfect data which seems to be what they do, i don't think you ever get there. joe: we have had no inflation or anything. why should they have gone at this point? guest: the strauss in the wind show that there is a lot of opportunity for this country to grow. there is a lot of backlog. and if you look at texas, the number one problem is skilled labor. we need more of it. there's plenty of jobs. overregulation has limited growth. and so there's opportunity to build and go forward. alix: how would a rate hike help you with that? guest: it's not going to make that much difference except to give the ability that if we have

another problem and even though the fed says they kgb low zero and i'm sure they figured out how to do that, you need to have something in your bag of chips and congress needs to do something. joe: in terms of regulation, skilled labor? what does congress need to do? >> congress needs to help this country grow. tax incentives. if you look at texas, we have no personal income tax. it's a job-friendly market. we like business. we like to grow. that's the reason texas is more successful. alix: texas is awesome. thanks so much. ick evans, chairman and c.e.o. ♪

alix: "what'd you miss" earnings are out tomorrow morning, one of the biggest miners and traders of commodities in the world. look at margins for their trading segment. this is where it could bite. aluminum premium over the last year and see that huge dipdown. joe: anything you do not want to

miss, the german vote on the greek bailout. they are going to pass it. how many of the party members ill merkel lose?

>> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: the american flag flew over the american embassy in cuba. the flag-racing the latest step in the process by the obama administration. we have a senator who attended the ceremony and the director of the cuba documentation project at the national security archives in washington. i