tv On the Move Bloomberg August 19, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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for the third time this year. emerging-market stocks slide to their lowest level since 2011. watchingat we are today -- let's have a look at how futures are indicating stocks will open today. the indication is that stocks will fall. we have had two days of gains on the european equity market. glencore results are down by 9/10 of 1% as the bundestag the ginza greek debate. -- begins the greek debate. caroline: we are waiting for live prices to open up on the dax, but i can tell you that it is already up by a quarter of 1%. -- reason of this selloff interestingly, we aren't really following china as he did yesterday, because china suddenly staged this late comeback in the late hours of trading.
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we suddenly saw the shanghai composite end in the green amid speculation about whether or not we would see more stimulus to come. monetary policy quickly kicked in. will bewhat juliette talking about in a moment but in europe are still concerned about the commodity index. bloomberg tracks as the lowest since 2002. the selloff is continuing. look out for those big oil majors today, and glencore after they came out with their numbers. the dax is now opening 9/10 of a percent down. stop buyingtime to these chinese stocks like the luxury good makers. have the fundamentals in china changed that much? and they have pricing power in china -- maybe is tryinime to analyze whether it's good to buy. we are opening on a downward as greece goestory
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to the last stages of its marathon to get this third bailout. this is 86 billion euros. we know that germany will be starting a debate around about now, and then we have the dutch deals. most of these deals will go through -- let's have a look at the key stocks to watch this morning and then earnings. carlsberg is unchanged, but watch it, it will sink. we have calls from rbc saying it will fall 8%. why? number isn't looking pretty. 3%, and russia is where it is weak. the beer market is collapsing 9%. they are cutting there for your forecast. -- their four-year forecast. they don't do profit warnings but if they did they would advise you to watch the stock price. bloomberg has been speaking to the chief executive of glencore, who says he has no read on
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china. we got in terms of clarity when one of the biggest commodity traders and miners are saying they don't understand china? their reasoning is that the projects are being delayed and that is the slow, slumping prices -- copper in particular. glencore is up half a percent. imperial tobacco up by a 10th of a percent. volumes are up by 3% in the first nine months of the year, and revenues are down 4%. i will leave you with carlsberg at 7.6%. mark: let's get to juliette in hong kong. good morning, juliette. juliette: good morning, mark. what a difference an hour makes, because look at the turnaround. we were seeing a big selloff on the shanghai market again for a second session following that 6.3% plunge yesterday, but in
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the last 90 minutes we saw a turnaround, the shanghai market closing high. there has been speculation that traders are waiting the prospects for more stakes with potential monetary easing. chatters also been some that there may have been some injection by the pboc into some of the banking stocks. certainly a massive turnaround for the shanghai market. the hang seng, though, closed down by 1%. they are holding on to those nine-month lows. korea and japan, down by 1.5%. in australia and thailand, following that big selloff yesterday on the back of the deadly blast -- but look at this. yesterday, every sector was in the red apart from oil and gas. today, oil and gas are down .2 .6% and every other one has
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closed higher, led by the telecoms. certainly, more volatility. mark: thanks a lot. germany's parliament is due to vote on the greek rescue package today with the parliamentary debate already underway. we spoke to the european andissioner vice president, he was optimistic about the deal getting approval. will tow strong conclude this program and find a solution, how to deal with the greek economic problems. supported,ngly respectively by german and dutch finance ministers, so certainly from the european o commissioner point of you they will get parliamentary approval and will seek to finalize it. mark: this comes as the ecb moves on reducing greek bank
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aiders as the bailout is easing tension. let's bring in hans nichols from berlin. first to you, hans. what are we expected today from this german parliamentary vote? hans: we are expecting 56 defections. there was a straw poll last night -- that is less than the 60 folks that voted against the actual authorization. it looks like it will pass the bundestag. introductions will start in a little bit and voting will continue through the morning. it should be wrapped up before noon. we will also be looking at the vote in the netherlands -- that could be slightly tighter. if it passes as it is expected, the money will be disbursed in greece will be able to start the process of rebuilding, starting with greek capitalizing their banks. mark: paul, what is the latest on the ela degrees? how significant was the ecb pasta and to reduce greek emergency liquidity assistance? paul: caroline mentioned earlier
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the marathon towards the greek bailout. i suppose you could say that this is a signal that they have hit the wall, but there is still a long way to go. we had a small reduction of 700 million euros, that was requested by the greek central bank and approved by the european central bank, so that is a sign that all sides feel things are getting better, but the ela is still at a pretty high level and there is a lot of work to do with the stress test. the greek banks need to work out just how much capital they need as part of that bailout package. then they will work to rebuild the banking sector, and that relies on rebuilding the economy as well. this is progress, but only a little. mark: hans, there is news about privatization of greek airports -- what is the news? hans: the news is that the deal
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has finally gone through. it was agreed to in november, 01.3 million euro deal. these are big in terms of international tourism. some 19 million passengers come into these. if you look at where a lot of folks want to see the greek economy go, it is difficult to imagine. they have also pledged to invest in these airports. crete, if ime on got it right. you will be going to the private terminal, though. i'm sure you won't be going through the mass like paul and i. once, buts an eos man that was in the late 1980's. before you were born. hans: it's a lot like being a but better.an
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mark: we will check in with you later. the debate is getting underway to approve the third greek bailout in five years. thanks to paul gordon in frankfurt. let's get the investors' take. we are joined by stephen, the head of strategy for european strategies at j.p. morgan. that an assumption today germany will rubberstamp this third bailout in five years? stephen: i think they have to prove it because the bailout has the approval of the finance ministers -- they are negotiating it, and they are the incumbents. they are going to get it through. mark: what is priced in and what isn't priced at? obviously the worst is over, the big concerns are over when it comes to greece. the money should now be cb.thcoming from the e
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the equity markets were very concerned in the run-up to the negotiations. as part of the negotiations, it meant that the greeks were increasingly, openly allowing to talk about the euro exit, and then surprised everyone by opening the possibility. i think the underlying truth that they were just negotiating hard, and a bluff was being called. in the end, there was no alternative. mark: but that could cause problems, couldn't it? a vote of confidence after august,, the 20th of
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might the party unravel in coming months? stephen: well, it's not a party, it's a coalition. i think it's entirely likely that they are a political force and they are now spent. i think it was easier, much easier, to be a vote for the opposition than it was to be in government. if you look at what they achieved during their administration -- last year, greece was growing, it had a primary surplus, it was issued a five-year bond earlier in the year. the government was so confident that i was talking about exiting the eu's package. government growth has collapsed, the banking system collapsed, the greek economy has been very, very badly affected. mark: where are we, though, when it comes to debt relief? the imf is saying that greece need some sort of debt relief.
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you have done some studies and you know the figures. the maturities -- they are quite long, aren't they? interest rates are very low . stephen: the structure of greek debt is on favorable terms. the average duration of greek debt before the latest package was just over 16 years. this package is i think 32 years and the interest rate is 1%. as long as greece is in a bailout package and gets subsidized interest rates from the european union, such that their interest payments are the lowest of any peripheral country, and only just higher than friends. so yes, if you look at the raw numbers, it looks like a very large number. but if you look through the mechanics of the finances, actually, the pressure from debt interest payments is substantially less. mark: is this that?
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does greece come back to haunt us again? this is the third bailout and five years. stephen: if i had to guess, i would say that there would be some more political rotation within greece. thethe arithmetic, underlying arithmetic, has not changed. greece wants to stay in the euro. even if they have to implement everything that their creditors are demanding. greece sees the euro as a guarantee of a modern, democratic future. and i think that is the overwhelming imperative. mark: good to see you -- stay with us. coming up, mining meltdown. clinic or plunging 66%. we will bring you the highlights of our conversation with the chief executive. then, evaluation tool. the annan cuts its reference rate in the fight to stay
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let's bring you up to speed with the top stories. aiden lawmakers vote on an package for greece. spain and estonia are all part of the deal. this comes a day ahead of the 3.2 billion euro greek payment to the ecb. the german bundestag is debating the deal as we speak. the german finance minister -- the central bank of vietnam has devalued its currency for the first time this year. it weakened the reference rate by 1%, citing the devaluation of the yuan and concern about the impact of possible u.s. rate hikes as reasons behind the move. carlsberg says it anticipates profits to continue falling as western europe and russia weigh on sales. it is the biggest brewing company in russia in the stock is down by 7% today.
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glencore's first-half profit tumbled the 56% compared to a year earlier as the commodity price that it. saying it currently is the worst performer this year -- let's bring in jesse respray. you have been speaking to the company's chief executive -- what did mr. glasenberg have to say today? jesse: as usual, a fascinating conversation -- it was most interesting when he talked about china and the impact of their demand. can do it right now it is a very difficult market. he said the country's crackdown on corruption and really impacted growth structures, but he did see some light at the end of the tunnel. he thought some of those infrastructure projects could help support commodities demand going forward. mark: the balance sheet is definitely a concern for analyst. how is glencore managing it?
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jesse: a big concern. debt,anaged to reduce net which was a little bit unexpected, so they are paying attention to that -- i asked the ceo about the credit rate, and what they thought about it. he says they got going to walk and chew gum at the same time. they say they will continue to pay the dividend, which investors will be very pleased with. mark: the trading business is the important business -- it underperformed in the first half. what was the reason for that? can they turn it around? jesse: premiums of copper and aluminum were down. they reported a 29% decrease in earnings, 1.1 billion, below their internal forecast. so they had to readjust that forecast down $1 billion, which has been a big concern for investors. a lot of them by glencore on the
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strength of that trading business. they think they can turn around in the second half, agricultural trading will pick up. so they see some improvement. mark: jesse, cheers. bloomberg news a senior independent nonexecutive director at glencore. at's bring in john, mining analyst. -i love that, walking and chewig gum. can they do it? john: well, let's hope they don't dropped the gum on the sidewalk. this is all important to glencore, and the market is going to be very focused on it. we have a worsening situation right now. glencore, i think, should have performed a bit better and
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it will disappoint many in the city, but they did very well on their oil marketing trading. but the metals business didn't do so well. they lost out there because they lost premiums on aluminium. china really slow down -- it totally had a wall. people were selling construction equipment into china saying it stopped and it's not just people building houses and office blocks. says it isberg difficult to determine the outlook, what we are really waiting for -- what everyone is doing when they by glencore -- is they are taking a bet on new stimulus in china to come through. i think it will come through -- the big question is when. mark: plenty think it's going to come through? john: we got used to looking at china over the years.
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look at what they do, not what they say. yes, perhaps it will be the back end of the second half. they are still shaking the tree. commodity prices are still falling, in the second half could be very much worse for the mining business in glencore, whereas i think the marketing might pick up of it . unfortunately with agriculture, although the volumes are up, wheat is down, prices are down. some of the pillars are not quite there. tough times for glencore, and they are going to have to work hard. mark: stephen, is a time to did our toes back into the mining industry? 8%.as fallen by roughly we know glencore is the worst performer this year. a fund manager, is it time to be brave and buy some of these stocks are not? stephen: there is some value emerging there. we don't necessarily think it
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will be favorable for a good few months yet. i think it is very interesting to think about the chinese stimulus coming later in the year, because were that to happen, you would then have stimulus through the ecb from china and from the bank of japan, and some of the concerns that people currently have about growth may be allayed. mark: john, you seem to be more optimistic, or sanguine about miners. harris associates is building at stake -- it must have a fairly bullish view about its prospects. do you share that? john: i do see the situation parallels between where we were in the asian crisis and where we were after the collapse. be opportunities to buy -- what i go with harris associates? maybe not, but they could have
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another agenda. mark: and activist agenda. john: exactly. that gives you a bit of a seat at the table. but for more ornery investors, i think we can take a bit longer to make about reminds. but yes, there will be an opportunity to buy the stock. mark: how is it versus its peers? it's quite heavily leveraged -- how does it stand? john: well, it has this fantastic marketing business which has always potential to make extraordinary profits. as we have seen in the oil marketing division, they nearly doubled their profits despite the falling oil prices. they have that advantage over the sleepy giants of the mining sector. yes, rios is more conservative and suffers from lower oil prices, but they are very different beasts, and i like the glencore mix of assets -- the copper, nickel and zinc. but those metals are having a tough time. mark: you mentioned the stimulus
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coming, possibly from china -- what that signal a bottom in the decline? they all had a horrible time since may, haven't they? john: stimulus is an easy thing to focus on. in reality, as many minors are cutting production, we should see prices rebound quite naturally. the two of those coincide and we might get a good list price around the year and. mark: do you have a favorite metal at present? john: zinc. mark: what is bottom dog? john: zinc and tin are my favorites. copper is the one where everyone should play for a global recovery perspective. and the world hasn't collapsed -- it's not collapsing here. there will be a resurgence these prices at some stage. zinc was very stable to much of the year.
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glencore shouldn't have been hit too hard by zinc, but prices have fallen back quite recently, that is what's going to make the second half -- mark: stephen will stay with us. final question -- john, m&a -- is there a big deal to be had by mr. glasenberg? john: absolutely. i think glasenberg is very keen to use the opportunity of week opportunistically by value assets, and he will by then she. mark: thanks for sticking around, stephen. john meyer.. stephen will stay with us. cutting reference rates in the fight to stay competitive. emerging-market stocks fall -- details out of the break. this is where you'll find me on twitter. how much lower can metal fall? that is my question to you. you can answer me @ma
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with exclusive behind the scenes footage, all of taylor swift's music videos, interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. mark: welcome back, i am mark barton. minutes into the trading day -- let's see how things are shaping up. after two days of gains, stocks have fallen today. the earlier reason would have been china's decline, with the chinese rebound the yuan is devaluing its currency. in a week, the german parliament discusses the greek bailout. here to rattle through the movers -- hi, caroline. caroline: hi, mark -- i am starting with booze, carlsberg. this is what happens when you have a profit warning. --fell, and the reason
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profit warnings, being downgraded to a decline. this is after second-quarter numbers came in below estimates. second quarter profits were down 19%. the u.k. was a significant problem, volumes up by some 6%. also we are seeing flat volumes in the nordic area -- france, poland looking pretty good, but overall western europe was a disappointment. meanwhile, russia is hurting -- this is a company usually exposed to russia and the ukraine. both those areas have depreciating currency in the slowing market. the market declined 9% in ine.ia, 70% of the ukra they are trying to offset this issue but overall the chief executive is saying we are not at a good point in this time. carlsberg is feeling the pain of that profit warning.
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meanwhile, setback -- another danish company is up by almost 6%. this is on the back of the second-quarter profit missing analysts estimates. krone, in at 226 danish million that is. increase, in an base a significantly lower impairment. they sound more optimistic -- the fact that they miss their and oftarget, i think, course candidate is the weakest economy at the moment . i leave you on a bright note -- another bank. a whole different set of affairs. a is the best performer, company that many didn't expect good things from, the second-biggest lender in eastern europe. huge exposure to russia and ukraine, but unlike carlsberg, it is doing better. ukrainian business is back in the black, making a profit,
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seeing trading gains. even as the ruble fell in russia, they managed to post improvements overall. this is a company that is shrugging their business there, by 20% to restore capital losses, but overall they are managing to post improvement in russia. the income is up 11%, beating every single analyst expectation. mark: thanks a lot. that's how things are shaping up in europe today. let's take a look at emerging markets, since chia's surprised -- china's surprise you want evaluation. let's bring in richard frost in hong kong. hi, richard. let's start with that third evaluation in vietnam -- what is going on? richard: last week, what they did -- it was an immediate reaction to the you want evaluation. overnight, they said they wanted to trade back again. ist they are trying to do
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catch up to some of these declines they have seen amongst competitors. veryam's export market is important and its largest trading partners china. year, fallen 4.5% last compared to 10% with regional competitors. what it wants to do is bolster their own economy. it is a natural outcome of these declines. richard, a emerging-market stocks are slumping to four-year lows today. is a going to get worse before it gets better? well, the threads are coming together, hammering these market. the slowdown in china, the concern about the fed raising rates, and the route in commodity prices -- until we see any of those change in terms of overall picture, it is hard to say things will get at her for emerging markets. we see a number of emerging
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markets in asia getting close to bear markets, falling 20% from recent peaks. malaysia and indonesia are both down at 1998 lows. nobody seeing any immediate relief. mark: richard, we had a selloff in china yesterday. but the market rebounded. who is getting out of chinese stocks at the moment, which type of investor? richard: most worryingly for the government, who has become the biggest borrower of stocks, is the wealthiest investors. areassume that the savviest those best place to influence stock market direction. those with more than 10 million you want in their account, which is about 1.5 million u.s. dollars, fell by about 28% last month. the only people who were moved going into the market where those with the least amount of
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funds. course, isn, of what they are doing with their money instead. it looks like they are putting it into the property market, which is improving, but there is possible capital outflow from china, protecting from the weaker currency, as well as the overall economic slowdown. everything else. as i said, it seems to be the rich selling when it comes to the stock market, as wel. mark: thanks for joining us. richard frost in hong kong. stephen, i promised i would get your china view. what about the other companies, the other sectors? autos, luxury goods? with big exposure to china, who stocks were hit har. were companye
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specifically warning about pressure on chinese businesses. you mentioned the auto sector. something came up with that. as a result, autos did underperform through that period. havee other hand, autos been a well performing sector. there was some money to come out of that. more broadly, though, on china, we are watching -- at what point will the chinese bank stimulate the economy? if you look to that massive ramp up in the shanghai composite, that didn't really reflect that was going on at the chinese economy, so with the large correction, which is just technical, protecting profits they made on margin accounts, i don't think that necessarily is a portent of disaster. i think the chinese market would be stabilizing, and it will
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start to push ahead. mark: on the earnings season, would you touched on, we are nearly there, three quarters of the way through. cast your judgmental view over how it's been. stephen: well, this is the year when european earnings stocks have been flatlining for five or six years, in second-quarter earnings seasons confirmed that the picture is still pretty bright. double digits are expected. energy, materials, everyone needs it. but also the news is pretty good, especially in banks. mark: how do you view valuation at present? stephen: we think valuation is not testing, given that you still have a few months ahead. we think there is still some support for the equity market. mark: does the weak gdp number out of europe last week -- it
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was weaker than economists forecast it -- does that cause any concern? stephen: the figure was modestly lower than forecast, but at the same time, it also upgraded the first quarter number. you had stronger growth in the first quarter. it is adding up to growth at 1.2% year on year, which is in the recovery phase, and remains on track. mark: the other big market is the fed. when will it raise rates? we will have minutes from the july meeting today, stephen, which could pinpoint september, or maybe not. a september a yes or a no aura maybe? maybe?r a stephen: i think the date isn't so important. ratesren't going to raise until they are absolutely confident that u.s. growth is strong, robust, and self-sustaining. mark: and european equities?
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stephen: in the short-term, if if are going to raise rates, the rate hike is a sign that the fed is absolutely confident in the robustness of the u.s. economy, then in the medium-term it is good news. mark: to european equities continue to outperform u.s. equities? stephen: we think so. there is an earnings a story there. connectionsr the that people have over greece, people are starting to return, to see that earnings growth is wants to increase. mark: thanks for hanging around. as we head to the break, we check on equity markets, which opens lower. hangovercome, russia's in carlsberg, the brewer lowering its guidance. are you a carlsberg fan?
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mark: this is "on the move." let's get to some of bloomberg's top stories. glencore's profit tumbles 66% as the ongoing commodity route. they also announced a dividend of six cents a share and cut it or your forecast for trading profit. the central bank of vietnam is devaluing currency for the first time this year. a week and the reference rates by 1%. the bank cited the devaluation concern aboutd the impact of a possible u.s. federal reserve rate hike. german and dutch lawmakers vote today on an 86 billion euro bailout program for greece. spain, austria, and estonia are all part of the deal. it comes a day ahead of a day
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ahead of the 2.2 billion euro greece payment due to the ecb. the german bundestag is debating the deal as we speak. carlsberg falls flat, the brewer missing expectations. it expects profit this year to drop as western europe and russia way on sales. -- weigh on sales. caroline: check out that share price move, down by 7%, because of a profit warning. coming from the fourth biggest brewer in the world. you know the brand. year profit forecasts are declining, as well as growth for overall profit, and it is down for second quarter profit. points, western europe is one of them. we had poor weather -- that was an issue -- but also be had a falling market and the u.k. the u.k. was seeing 6% decline in volume. asare seeing market decline,
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well as issues in the nordic region, where they had flat volume. the market once again is feeling the pressure. france, poland were bright spots, but they were hurt. but russia -- russia is where we want to focus. this is a market that keeps on doing dismal. overalleeing russia helping the bond earlier this year. we saw the russian currencies stage a bit of a comeback, but it suddenly declined at 10%, the worst since december. slump comes during carlsberg's usual summer sale. it is hurting imports and carlsberg is seeing regulation as well -- they are trying to camp down -- to clamp down on booze and russia and that will be hurting them. they are trying to act, closing
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to breweries in trying to limit supply. but when you get it in ukraine and -- when you get hit in ukraine and russia -- i or to show you a chart to show you how much carlsberg has tracked. check this out, how much they inlowed each other terms of the ruble and how they deteriorated. look how closely we see some of the trends. this is the ruble declined, less bang for your buck for your danish krone. there is a bright spot, though, mark -- asia. asia is doing well. positive market share developments. china boosts volumes despite declining market. india -- 43% increase in volume. this is the real growth area. volume is up, prices going up, asia is a bright spot but it is not nearly enough to outweigh
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the debate is underway at the bundestag on greece's latest bailout, with dutch lawmakers did to me today. we spoke to the european commissioner earlier -- here's what he had to say. know that in the eurogroup withment, it's very clear the possibility of a bailout for bondholders but that bailout depositors will explode -- it was actually the ecb's insistence to provide for depositors, that it's not going to be the depositors bailout. how will you go about bringing in the bondholders in all of this? are all laws in place to be able to enact the recapitalization in terms of greek law? first therei said,
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is a need to carry out -- and stress this before any further decisions can be taken, but in any case, according to the it isples of the union, being applied, so it's not taxpayers that are first in line to pay for the banking sector problems, but it's actually shareholders and bondholders. when you look at the banking sector, what is your assessment on how long it is going to take? the greek economy is flat on the back because the banking sector is in -- how quickly does this process happen? it's at thetainly end of the day also depending on the greek authority.
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outs possible to carry them within a few weeks, but then there are also further decisions lifting theegards capital controls. the lifting the capital controls -- at the end of the day, it's decisions of the greek authority, how exactly they are going to do it. hearing, as you were most of the german population do not believe that the greeks will enact the reforms currently being promised. how much do you believe in alexis tsipras and the fact that he can deliver what is being promised? >> well, we know that in the last half year of negotiations, watc, confidence has been lost and there is a need to restore it. that is why the programs, the new programs, will be heavily
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frontloaded. there are lots of legislative steps which greek authorities had to takernment at the beginning of the program, or even before the program started. what we have seen so far in the parliament is that there is a strong majority for this program and for the necessary associated programs. mark: hans nichols has been covering the story -- hans, what is the latest from the german lawmakers' debate? hans: will the finance minister introduced the measure and the opposition has been speaking -- we will have speeches throughout the morning. he seems like a man who is utterly confident that this is going to pass. you contrast his style and even the substance from that photo earlier in july -- it looked like there may have been doubt that ther it would pass.
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but this seems like a finance minister that is going through the motions and then those it will pass. he will want to see the numbers and how many defects there are. it looks like there will be 56. but it looks like it will go through and the next big issue will be web might there be a collapse in the confidence in athens and when might there be fresh elections. when is thestion is imf going to join and in what capacity and under what circumstance? mark: the netherlands are also voting today. is at issue in or will it be close? hans: it will the vote in the bundestag, and analysts and our colleagues in the hague are pretty certain that this will pass. there will likely be a vote of no-confidence by the right wing party, the freedom party. looks like they will introduce that after the measure passes. we could have a question about the stability of the government of the netherlands after this passes. it is probably not going to lead
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to the collapse of that, so it looks like the most likely confident to face a crisis of confidence and face their voters again will be the government in athens. that looks like it will be in the back half of september. mark: thanks a lot. here's what to watch for the rest of the day. we have a lot ahead of the u.s. today and we will get more applications at noon u.k. time. later we will get u.s. inflation figures. in the main event is at 7:00 p.m. -- the federal reserve releasing minutes from its july meeting. as we had out, here's a picture of european equities -- every industry falling today. earlier we had the bloomberg commodity index, falling to a low since 2002. it has come back a little, but miners are dropping. mib down by 1.1%, ftse by 7/10 of 1% -- what is on your mind? you can always find me @markbart
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francine: germany and the netherlands cast their votes on the greek bailout. the debate in the bundestag is happening right now. glencore profit plunges 56%. norway's sovereign wealth fund is the biggest in the world. we speak to a ceo about a strategy going forward. welcome to "the pulse," live from bloomberg's european headqute
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