tv The Pulse Bloomberg August 19, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT
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francine: germany and the netherlands cast their votes on the greek bailout. the debate in the bundestag is happening right now. glencore profit plunges 56%. norway's sovereign wealth fund is the biggest in the world. we speak to a ceo about a strategy going forward. welcome to "the pulse," live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london.
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also coming up, cathe pacific is hit by lawsuits. we speak to the chief executive ivan chu at 10:30 a.m. we are getting news from the norwegian wealth fund following it decline. this is the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world. it has invested a lot in oil. it has tried to focus more on real estate. falling 0.9%. i think that is in terms of revenue. manus cranny will have an interview, the only exclusive interview for international media with the ceo of norgas bank later on. that will come to you on "the pulse." the german parliament is right now debating whether to approve the greek rescue package. hans nicholsrlin has been following the
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development's closely. we spoke to a key angela merkel advisor. he was pretty confident this is "the boat will not only go through but will go through with a very large majority." our next guest says the greek house is burning. microhe head of rbs credit in research. thank you for coming in. maybe a brigade is little bit too late, but in the last 24 hours wolfgang schaeuble he's tried to muster support in the bundestag. he seems to be a lot closer to the greeks i than in the past. >> there has been a definite turning point for america and for wolfgang schaeuble. some sortonsidering of debt relief, some maturity extension for greece. a german newspaper earlier this week was talking about a
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six-year extension which would be substantially -- would effectively reduce the burden of debt. today wolfgang schaeuble is playing the bad cop again. but i think it is a strategy for the vote. the vote will pass. look at germany's exports. 50% is to europe. knowing that germany needs the rest of europe as a market. reticular now. is nott of the extension very high. it is basically loans. the real point is how the restructuring will be done. yesterday, greece published its data for tax revenues. july is the biggest month for revenues. revenues were down by 4 billion. they were 26. spoke two weeks ago and you have been correct
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almost every step of the way. you were telling me we have to be more cautious than the markets are on greece. has anything changed in the last two weeks because of what you are mentioning? alberto: we have an agreement for a kick the can renewal of loans. so we are buying time. we still have on the table some sort of debt relief, but it is not clear how strong it is going to be. the extension could be six years or lower. we think it lists 30 years are needed, extension for greece. on the other hand, we have also wasbank -- restructuring nice to happen. the banks are not lending to the economy, and that creates instability and lack of trust and lack of investment. so all of these things need to be decided in the coming months. the sooner the better. the budgetfrom numbers -- july is the biggest month -- in the summer the greeks get most of the revenues. revenues have declined. what greece has done to maintain
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tourplus is to cut costss, delay public money that goes to firms that supply goods, milk to schools or computers to government offices. so the government has been delaying these payments. to create a surplus. it also has cut investment. 1.4 billion investment cut. for example, european union funds that go to greece, the government cannot put its part. all this means the gdp is going to go down in the coming months. that is why the solution is needed soon. francine: yet we had a very surprising from greece a couple with ago which i have to ask you about. i also want to go to hans nichols in berlin. he's following the vote in the bundestag closely. the parliament beginning to debate. we're expecting a vote later the smarty. hans, you have been following this closely -- we're expecting a vote later
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this morning. merkelhat you see from is preppinguble everyone for the idea of how and when the international monetary fund will be involved.mr. vitalble just said it is that the international monetary fund stay involved. we heard two things. one, not an insignificant amount of doubt that this plan will work. he said there is no guarantee, but the other part is that it is morally incumbent to get greece a fresh start. and this is a finance minister that seems willing to trust the greek government, willing to trust the government he opposed for much of this past year is going to implement the reforms they said they are going to do. the money will get sent out the door. you will recapitalize the greek tags. -- the greek banks. it is going to be a difficult path but not guaranteed path. spain, austria and estonia all past the bailout
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yesterday. three votes are left, including the netherlands. hans: the difficult thing about the netherlands is not just the seatnment -- it has a one majority. they have got 76 and a parliament of 150. the issue is what happened after. netherlands share of this bailout will be 5 billion euro s. mr. rutter campaigned on not another bailout. e opposition leader plans to introduce a vote of no-confidence. that is what analysts are saying in the hague. but it gives you the sense of the political instability and to what extent this deal still needs to be able up and -- to be implemented step-by-step in athens. there have been numerous hint of the past three weeks there will be actions in september. the governing party will not last. it will collapse.
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and we have to see what government takes its place in athens. francine: think you so much. alberto, we were talking about -- you expect these votes to pass. you were talking about greek gdp, and it will be quite hard because of the way the money comes in. we had an incredible gdp figure a couple weeks ago. what was your take on it? was it because people spent money before we had the referendum, they were afraid they would not have access to their euros? or a matter of people playing -- paying taxes more at that time. was positive.p surprised everyone. it was driven by the fact that inflation is a negative. if you look at the nominal number, the figure is less positive. in part, there is a contribution to spending during the quarter from people that were afraid of the prices. so they went to the supermarket early and spent money earlier. but every other indicators
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suggest that we are about to see a much sharper decline in the pmi. 30's, below 50 is a contraction. we are way below 50. and duster production down 4%. inflation is -2.2% we are looking at a sharp contraction. again, the government has cut 3% of revenues as a percentage of gdp declining. has cut 1.4 billion and investments in just the first months of the year. they need to fire some of the employees they have -- that have been hired in the beginning of the year. there is a we qualified from the measures. what is still very vague is this plan to invest in greece. the 35 billion plan to restart the economy. there is no detail on that. francine: that is the detail we are waiting for. we will talk about china next. it has been another volatile day
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of trading in asia with concern about emerging markets. here with the latest as caroline hyde. first of all, there is a currency worry, and then volatility in chinese markets. caroline: and this is what is really concerning people at the moment. will we see other asian, emerging-market nations start to devalue their currency, after we saw the chinese do exactly the same to the yuan? will they try to make them more -- their own exports -- today am going to talk about the -- we see weakness today. this is the dollar rising. currency falling. this is one example of a country fueling that concern about currency wars. here is another 1 -- vietnam. it devalued their currency. a 2.4% gainow see of the dollar versus the vietnamese currency.
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weakening in -- this picture. and widening the trading ban. they said this is because of the yuan and because of the federal reserve. we get minutes from the fed later today. july, of course, we saw the stock show off -- sell of china. the next meeting will happen in september. they have to take into account what the rest of the world is doing in terms of china and in terms of whether that delays the federal reserve. at the moment, a 50-50 chance the federal reserve will raise rates come september. that is making vietnam consider that they need a third devaluation. about foreigns currency. and also about what the emerging-market stock market is doing. it is interesting or tree suddenly saw volatility you talked about. this is the shanghai composite, staging a late rally.
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caby 5% at 1% when i first came in. first tome companies coming ou saying that stack back -- state backed funds are buying up their shares. policy inf monetary the government stepping in to prevent another selloff like we saw in july. remember, we have seen twice, the 200 day moving average, the overall the shanghai composite fall below that. each time we saw a resurgence in the shares. the exact same thing happened today. technical indicator being hit. and we see buying of the shanghai composite. we saw a resurgence in chinese onshore shares. but take a look at what happened in hong kong. 8 shares. these are chinese stocks listed in hong kong. they are not buying it.
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they do not think we are going to see in and to the donald's f-- the downward spiral. lower, offng trading by 1.2%. there is volatility abounds. are seeing the european markets be so fragile and why we are seeing cello. people do not know what is happening with china to you heard it from ivan glasenberg. he doesn't get it. it to the others traders get ? francine: that brings us to today's to the question. emerging markets -- is china a good long-term investment? you can treat me or our guest. the head of macro credit research at rbs. that is our twitter question. is it or not a good long-term investment? emerging markets are china? months, for the next 12
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a bad investment. equities have underperformed. they are cheap, but there -- what worries me the most on emerging markets bonds. fixed income investors consider them as a safe haven. in reality, they are a fake haven. that is what we say. the average amount of ems in the u.k. pension fund used to be 2%. now it is over 10%. but when currencies depreciate by 10%, 30%, countries and corporate in emerging markets have a lot of debt and dollars or in euros, they are going to have a solvency issues. localvenues are in currency. they fund in hard currency. so the currency issue is going to become a debt issue. francine: it's unclear to me, because we had this massive rout in september of last year, and i had a lot of economist telling me emerging markets are fine. we always knew it is going to
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the dollar. it was my understanding we assumed the fed would hike interest rates. so is this why -- this is coming as a surprise? that we understood that china is evaluating in response to the fed? alberto: we have raised the red flag a lot. what we have seen last year and the year before in the taper tantrum is mostly currency volatility in the currency war. but we have not seen any credit crunch in emerging markets. phase of thehird crunch. after the u.s., there is europe, and emerging markets countries and corporate have not delivered. -- delevered. we have seen in its relation a private debt growing by 20% a year since the crisis and before. it has never stopped in em. now we are seeing china trying to control this crunch, making some of the company's default, some of the state owned
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enterprises restructure their debt. the problem is it is going out of control, because you try to control the credit crunch and support the economy with purchases of stocks, reserve requirement reductions, lowering interest rates, but at some point in the market -- the market takes over and the process becomes less controlled. there are spillovers to a lot of other countries and sectors. brazil, for example, which also has a political issue. australia, which exports 1/3 of its total exports to china to half of that is iron. -- half of that is iron. german carmakers, there are spillovers. that is the number one worry. the bond markets which have been very resilient to the volatility in currencies and in other numbers. francine: it is a new phase and we are worried about the spiral. thank is so much for now. he stays with us and we talk about oil next. here is a look at what else is on our radar this wednesday. oil is sliding after two opec
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members vowed to keep pumping. iraq set of production boost is needed. angolan exports are headed for level not seen since 2011. 30% from its june peak, dragging emerging-market stocks to a four-year low. the human cost of the devastating explosion and tiajin has risen to 114 deaths with more than 70 people missing for the economic costs may reach as much as $1.5 billion. fitch expects chinese insurance companies to be hit hardest. tiajin is the 10th biggest port in the world. much of it remains close with importer seeking alternative facilities. and carlsberg shares have plunged after the world's fourth biggest brewer missed estimates for a second-quarter profit. the company says it expects 2015 organic profiting -- operating profit to drop as western europe and pressure weigh on sales. point -- forone
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one-time items is $232 million. pacific has recorded net income that lagged behind estimates. it comes after the company suffered losses from fuel hedging. we will speak to the cathay pacific ceo. and vladimir putin is added against it again. he has taken a small submersible craft down to the bottom of the black sea to see an ancient shipwreck recently discovered off the coast of crimea. went scuba diving and brought up ancient -- shards. it was discovered the items were planted for him to find. the norway which boasts world's biggest sovereign wealth fund has reported a second-quarter result. $8.8 billion pull down by the fixed income market. let's find out more. manus cranny joins us from oslo.
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can you break down the results for us? fran, when you look at these numbers, this is the first loss in almost three years. i think that encapsulates the issues and the problems for any investors. the issues were in equities and fixed income. negative returns -- they did the the benchmarks. the strength of the kroner. upside is, actually in the second quarter, they have a little bit more money in from petroleum. the blockbuster positions remain. nestle, apple, and n ovardis. they trimmed back their holdings in each of the top three. when they break it down on the equity side, north america is where the drag came. european equity -- flat. asia, this is where the boom came. japan good. but china with 9% return. the third quarter, the rest of the year turns out.
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i have to show you some of the worst and best performers. bg, ubs and lloyd's where the best returns for the. -- for them. a tough time in miners. the negative returns for them, and the less good returns were basf, fmw and nestle. fixed income,to this is the challenge, the bond market. 90 billion. - their largest holding is in the u.s., and that is why the negative return was. the biggest losses in terms of what they are trimming, this is interesting, they are trimming back on their bond exposures in japan, france and the u.k., but they are adding to german, chinese in austin. a little bit of a shocker. we will have a conversation with the head of the sovereign wealth fund. she's in -- he's in next-door.
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this is a first for us. what is he worried about? what are the issues for the man who runs the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world? francine: thank you. manus cranny in oslo. i can't wait to have a great interview. you can watch his interview on "the pulse" later this morning. let's get more with the rbs head of macro credit research. i want to take -- pick your brain on oil. people have been talk -- calling in with the bottom at 30 and $20. what is your sense? hurt a lot ofit the airlines because they do not know what to hedge next year. alberto: we think it will stay at low levels and gradually recover next year. the point is there is a huge overcapacity held in the sector worldwide and inventories are high. still at the beginning of a readjustment in emerging markets and in some of the ofgest consumers commodities. we need to see to what extent
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the credit crunch their plays out. general it, the pessimists are wrong because when there is a crisis, because they do not forecast the downturn to the full extent. so general he things to tend to arry -- to turn out worse in credit crisis. francine: you imaginingare to lower growth around the world. and that impacts the demand for oil. alberto: the first thing to worry about is a hard landing in china. which has been masked from easing from the government with lower interest rates, lower reserve requirements for banks, and purchases of stocks in the market. now, we see a lot of issues in the credit market in china. there are 11 shadow banks that have asked for a bailout just yesterday. to the government. there is an acumen relation of
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private debt. all the metrics tell you that over the last decade, credit grew by double-digit amounts every year. and when this happens, money gets located two things that do not create profits, to ghost towns and factors that are not used. now we need to deal with the losses. who takes the losses? in part, some are international bond holders. but for the most part, things are funded by the banks like in europe. a credit crunch plays out a lot quicker than you may think. francine: thank you so much for now. we also had fed minutes later today. and we will look for clues as to whether the chair janet yellen will raise rates in september. so, let's talk a little bit about that, because we kind of have a four pronged attack in terms of what we need to know. first of all, greece. then chhinina. oil, which is linked to china.
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everything over arch is the fed. do we care too much about when she raises rates? we need to focus on how much they raise by in the next six months. alberto: yen is my first worry. the fed is linked to that. we still think they will raise in september because of improvements in the labor market because they have committed to it. it is one of the few opportunities for them to build dry powder before a potential slowdown in the future. elections are next year. so they cannot raise too close to elections because it undermines their independence. so, you know, we think they are going to raise but probably the slowest path the fed has done in history. francine: 42 of -- 42% of respondents still expects them to hike rates. we all know that the fed puts interest rates for a domestic audience, but when you look at emerging markets, which are not
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the wary because it impacts the dollar and that impacts exports? borrowers inmpacts dollars. companies borrowing dollars has gronk usually. they used cheap fed rates to borrow. now liquidity is becoming expensive. francine: why raise now? why not wait until next year? alberto: it is on the margin we going to-- they are raise. the probability is becoming lower. if you were a central banker, you should start doing it and start preparing the market, because if you do not, then that leaves you with no policy tools if there is a slowdown two years from now. the market just worries about tomorrow. the central bank's job is to worry about longer than tomorrow. and look a little bit farther in the future. francine: given what we have
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seen in the chinese market, do you think there is a danger that if they do hike too soon, in september, then they have to reverse it much quicker. come april-may next year they have to reverse that. e.m. will getnk hit. there will be a spillover. the u.s. economy remains well isolated from emerging markets. but yeah, there is some danger that if they hike too quickly than they might have to reverse. hikeot think one creates that risk. you becomek is that very market sensitive and every point of market volatility have to delay has already been done several times in the past. francine: think you so much for all of that analysis. rbs head of macro credit research. up next, glencore gets battered by commodities. we will find out just how bad things are for the miner. a reminder for you can follow me
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live in london. i'm francine lacqua. here are the top headlines. oil is on the slide after two opec members vowed to keep pumping. iraq says it is needed to meet the needs of a growing population. is down 30% from its june peak, dragging emerging markets stocks to a four-year low. the central bank of vietnam has devalued its currency for the third time. it weakened the reference rate
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of the dong by 1%. it cited the devaluation of the yuan. and a federal reserve rate increase. carlsberg shares have plunged after the world's fourth biggest brewer missed estimates for second profits. the company says it expects 2015 organic operating profit to drop as western europe and rush away on sales. earnings before interest and taxes and one-time items was 2.9 billion kroner. dutch lawmakers vote today on an 86 billion euro aid program for greece. spain, austria and estonia passed the deal yesterday, a day ahead of a 3.2 billion euro greek repayment. the bundestag is debating the deal ahead of the vote later this point. the german economy has seen some challenging times recently. first with greece. now chinese volatility.
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german stocks are amongst the most affected by the yuan drop. let's cross over to the were hans nichols is joined by the deputy ceo of the association of the german chamber of commerce. over to you. ans: i am joined by -- for assessment of what is happening with the german economy. we got those gdp figures last week. a disappointed. greece looks like it is going to be in the review mirror pretty soon. are you more concerned about greece going forward or china? >> i'm more concerned about the development of china. china is much more important,, an importants issue but it is more a political issue in order to get the european union and the -- working together in the eurozone and a better way. hans: when you look at what is happening in china and the stock market plunging, is it just the auto companies that are going to be affected, or is this across germany all the way? volker: it is across -- affects
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all manufacturing sectors, german companies invested a lot. we have a capital stock of 50 over there in order to produce for the markets, in order to produce for the value chain of german products all over the world. so, therefore, they are all affected, but admittedly, the car car producers. hans: you have members all across the german industry. when you look at what they were saying about greece in 2012, are they more concerned about china in 2016 and they were about greece in 2012? volker: no. with greece it was the contagion effect, the potential that this would trigger a lot of turmoils in the whole eurozone. has dampened, at least the expectation and the fears they cam e down.
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that's good. thechina is a powerhouse of world economy and a powerhouse for german exports and german worldwide investment. so, therefore, they are concerned right now but they are not that concerned in the structural way like they were with greece in 2012. hans: when you look to the rest of 2015, 2016, where are you optimistic for german industry, for potential exports? iran? volker: iran is really, on the positive side for expectations, but first of all, it is the u.s. economy. and this is major market that is still the major market outside of europe. it's also passing by now france, our biggest partner in europe. so it's u.s. but if we look about, upcoming stars or stars could have the potential, it is iran with, it's
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not highly industrialized but there it -- it is much more industrialized than people think. and they need to modernize their whole, parts of machinery and equipment. there is potential for german machinery. hans: a year ago you would've been optimistic about brazil. today, result has had to trim their forecast for you look at volkswagen. they expect to sell 26%. angela merkel is heading there this evening. when you look at latin america, give me your sentiment. volker: brazil seems to us like it was an illusion. in the 10 years, in the decade after the year 2000. because we had the increasing commodity prices and brazil is abundant of commodities and raw materials. now this coming down of
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lds, theyces on yie have huge structural problems. it is a question of corruption in commodity companies. and all the other companies affected. ust there's a mitch -- mistr in the market. we see they did not spend the money to improve infrastructures and other things. they may prestige projects like stadiums. tiajin i am glad you brought up the commodity side. you brought uplad commodity side. german looking to the consumer did to drive growth throughout the second half of 2016? german labor market is really working well for the time being. should make the
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mistake in order to step into another illusion that this will maintain for many years, because right now we are in a circumstance is what i would call -- a business cycle full of doping. we have low interest rates. relatively low euro currency, which is very -- we are very much in favor for our export business. and we have commodity prices on a very low level. and this will not maintain. so, therefore, we have to pay attention and make our homework. and this won't keep forever. hans: if the german economy is a cyclist that is doping on a friday of central bank loans, that is an interesting tank. thank you for your time. with that, i send it back from a very gloomy day here, weather wise in berlin. but politically a looks like greece will be in the rearview mirror. francine: we got the report
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from wolfgang schaeuble. of the most popular politicians ever in europe. thank you so much. hans nichols begin to the deputy ceo of the german chamber of commerce to the commodities rout hit glencore pretty hard. they perform -- a reported 56% slump in first-quarter profits. let's get more with commodities reporter jesse who has just interviewed ivan glasenberg. down 5.2%price is earned when glencore was created, we like to believe there was a national hedge because we had the mining and the trading. they could offset one another. that has not been proven right so far. sse: it is a major concern for investors. they had a target between -- and 3.7 billion. they had to cut that. they had a week first half. the ceo blamed it on a we china.
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they cut it down to 2.5 billion. the share prices are reflection of the market digesting the news and the big cut. the companypre-ipo, marketed themselves as being able to whether any crisis. it was a point of different from their peers like bhp and rio tinto. the aura is the supreme trade is starting to disappear. francine: you are one of the few that has access to the ceo p had a conversation and you said it is impossible to predict what is going on in china. jesse: that is a real concern. if ivan glasenberg, the ceo of one of the world's biggest commodity traders says i cannot read china. that is a different message than they have been sending in recent years. interestingly, he did peg the his ability around the crackdown and corruption in china and said that has impacted demand for commodities in terms
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of infrastructure projects in the country, which had been delayed. but he thinks that as the year goes on, into next year, some of those projects that were delayed may start to come back online. francine: how do you square the two? glencore one of the worst performers, down 5.2%. but then the last 30 days, we have a pretty snazzy u.s. investors buying up 4.5% of the stock. jesse: you would like to think he was savvy. $1.6 billion on his stake. he sees the stock as undervalued and hopefully we will see to him in coming days to find out how he ssees today shareprice decline. he took a big bet. it inflows the share price yesterday, up4%. today's market reaction is not good news. francine: we found out more about the credit rating? jesse: i spoke to the cfo. we asked him how he thinks about protecting the bbb rating.
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whilst at the same time maintaining the dividend. he said that they can walk and chew gum at the same times. they think they can do both, which investors will be pleased to hear. whether they can do that is another question. gum.ine: awakllk and chew the latest on glencore. the share price, the update is down 5.9%. we should, of course, point out that the chairman of bloomberg lp, which is the parent company of bloomberg news, is a senior executive director at glencore. coming up on "the pulse," the domain name that sent p.r. teams in a panic. wasill explain what dot-ofx allowed to be created and we will find out which companies are snapping it up. sucks. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." carlsberg's share price has plunged. they're blaming uncertainty in russia. thomas buckley joins us with the latest. great to have you run the program. first of all, russia is huge for carlsberg and they have not been doing well. it is getting worse and worse. tom: maybe if we take a quick step back from russia.
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also as a problem's have affected all the brewers this quarter, including -- tough comparables from last year's world cup. also enjoyed very good weather last year in western europe. we have not had any of those advantages this year. coming back to russia, it certainly is a sink of a problem for carlsberg, because they own a 36% market share in the country. beer has been declining 9% this year. has become a huge problem for russia. carlsberg. and the shares of carlsberg have been trading in tandem with the ruvell since january -- ruble since january. francine: when you look at the share price, they track russian gdp and they track the price of oil. ruble hass what the been doing. is it that carlsberg is struggling to beer? it they are not selling
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enough compared to last year? tom: the economic turmoil has been impacted by lower oil prices. also, they have raised the excise cuty. -- duty. the's made operations in country difficult for all the major brewers. carlsberg is more exposed to russia than the others. francine: major challenge for big brewers in general. that would lead to more m&a. assume sonk you would but traditionally we would have seen some of the major brewers consolidate as they have done in the past two years, maybe the angle is more skewed towards acquisitions in the craft industry. they have been aggressive in the u.s. we've seen them enter into the u.k. and carlsberg would do well to see that upside if they were to look into the craft brewing sector in western europe. francine: think you so much for
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the roundup on what we have seen on carlsberg. -- thank you so much. here are more of bloomberg's top headlines. the force will be with you on japan's largest airline this autumn. it will start flying a boeing 787 painted with, to look like the famous robot from star wars r2d2. two other planes will be decorated in star wars motif. it is part of the had surrounded the release of the new "star wars" will coming out in december. heidi klum has fired back at donald trump after he said she was no longer a 10. she posted this. she has a t-shirt. 10 has a t-shirt from downgraded to 9.99. hackers who stole the personal information -- from an adultery
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website claimed to have released the data. it now has published almost 10 gigabytes of information, including credit card details, e-mails, and passwords. i find it funny. you would find it less funny if you're one of the names leaked. security and the internet is paramount. so, when the domain name dot sucks was launched in march. suddenly registrations were up as companies try to kick -- to take control of their trademarks. is this creation holding brands for ransom? what everyone will be asking is why do we have a domain name that is dot sucks? >> yeah, so the organization that manages -- dot com is called the internet corporation for assigned names and numbers. that is pretty tedious. a few years ago they decided to
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open up what you could have after the final dot. dot london and we also have dot sucks. francine: who bought it? >> 6000 registrations of people who bought something dot sucks. and most of it is by companies that are very worried about protecting their reputation. a disgruntledant customer to post negative stuff. as i went through the list, i started realizing it that there are some people using it much more creative ways. francine: tell me about them. ask the, you say dot sucks, you automatically think it would probably be the more tech savvy ones. brand management. using it to their own advantage? >> the companies that have taken for the reputation are things like facebook, microsoft, and names like zuckerberg. on the more creative uses, you've got people like dyson and suction is aom
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positive edge of you. people thinking more laterally about problems they are solving rather than the company. i spoke to a guy who set up life insurance.sucks. he's selling life insurance to people who found life insurance salespeople a bit tricky to deal with in the past. cystic fibrosis.sucks is being set up by a charity. hasi also spoke to some and my ex.sucks. thestart to think about kind of businesses you can set up around people who are saying negative things about those issues. francine: that is pretty memorable. if you are a big company, that is considered great to protected. if you have something like dyson, you use it that way. if you are small website, you can use it to kind of, people remember that. they were funny because they used dot sucks. >> it is a good marketing tool
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with shock value. so if you have got an ad, you can say we are on my job.sucks. we are new recruitment company. people were remember. francine: thank you for bringing us the update. if you want to know more on the story, and you should, check out website. you can find details on bloomberg.com. why the dot sucks domain does not have to suck. another story on the website is japan's biggest iron or traitor is giving hollywood a run for its money. it's close to developing a mechanized suit. you heard it first. similar to the one worn by sigourney weaver in "aliens." users to carry heavy items without causing aches and pains. the footage. it actually does not look that comfortable. but i'm sure this is just a work
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facing google, apple and uber. they are trying to acquire the most detailed digital maps for self driving cars. there is a car race underway pitting traditional carmakers against upstarts. getting self driving cars on the road first. and maps are the fuel in the race. >> it was really about getting from a to b. now it is transitioning embedded in the car. it will become a component of the car that will help the car drive. reporter: it is also knowing everything in real-time. teamy would bmw and audi up to spend $3.1 billion to acquire nokia's map division? the carmakers are afraid of ceding control to apple and google. >> there are not that many map
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data sets in the world. reporter: there's tom tom and nokia. >> there are some thought that it might go higher. the automakers may have landed a sweet deal to map the future. francine: the race for maps. for those listening on bloomberg radio, "the first word" is up next. for our viewers, the second hour of "the pulse." we will talk airlines as cathay pacific is hit by losses from fuel hedging. we speak to the chief executive ivan chu at 10:30. manus cranny will be speaking to the ceo of norges bank. it is the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world. they are very exposed to oil. and after an appeal from the german finance minister,
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francine: decision day. germany and the netherlands cast their vets on the greek bailout today. mining meltdown. glencore profit plunge plunges 56%. prices at a 13-year low. norway's sovereign wealth fund. we speak to the c.e.o. about his trategy going forward. good morning to our sflures europe. good evening to those in asia and welcome to those just waking up in the united states. i'm francine lacqua. this is "the pulse" live from
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bloomberg's european headquarters in london. also coming up on "the pulse" this morning cathay pacific is hit by losses from fuel hedging. we speak with the chief executive ine chu here on "the pulse." germany is voting on whether to approve the greek bailout package. hans, what can we expect? from germany, we expect it to be passed through. hans: we expect it to be passed. in some ways the tone is important. mr. wolfgang schaeuble kicked it off. they have an obligation to greece to give them a second chance, at the same time he offered no guarantees this proposal, this 86 billion euro package would work and he repeated this idea that there would not be a debt haircut tr greece and hinted, suggested
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there is really only so much you can do on reducing the maturities and debt burden by dealing with maturities a little bit. we'll expect the final vote here in about an hour and then the vote in the netherlands. that could be tighter. it is also expected to pass there and then if it passes the money gets shipped out the door. 26 billion the first trench and 10 billion will go to recapitalize banks. francine? francine: austria, estonia, spain, all passed the bailout yesterday leaving three votes including the netherlands. anna: yeah, the netherlands one is interesting. they said they were not giving one more cent to greece. 5 billion will be their share of the bailout. the far right wing, say that i had they are going to call a vote of no confidence. he obstacle has 12 votes and 150
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seats. there could be a before urp in the netherlands but it is probably not going lead to collapse of the government. what happens in the coming weeks in athens . will syriza face its own crisis when they have that conference at the on the other hand september and will there be fresh elections in athens, in greece as well and who'll lead whatever government comes out of that? francine? francine: thank you. hans nichols with the latest. we're joined with erik nielsen. you on the program. do you feel -- this is about subteties. it is about subteties when you look at the language from german politicians. it seemed to me that schaeuble more positive.
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>> he wanted to be the top guy. i think actually he personally lost faith in the greeks some months ago, maybe three or four months ago. this is an attempt to really bring the exit on the table with we flection of this he said may have crossed this line. merkel put him back in again. ultimately he is a good soldier. he has come onboard. francine: it doesn't mean that it is a done deal. do you think i.m.f. will definitely be involved? they are going to make that decision october 10. do you think germany will support that release? >> yes. they can't walk away. there is too much money on the table. you have to come in. i think they have made clear now they want debt leaf. we talked about the numbers. it is that extension. it is interesting, there are some limits to that also.
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there would be something in terms of debt relief by pushings it out further, lower interest rates. there has to be a deal. tracy: i know this is not your main worry. the markets are not really worried about this. you look at the intricacies of how it works. what is the next timetable? we understand that may not be looking at greece for fresh or snap elections. >> that's right. i think the most important thing here is that zpwreast put on the back burner. it is an enormous amount of time in all of the capitals. hopefully they will stay on track which they will almost certainly for at least one or two -- three to six months and then see how it goes. i think it is too early to conclude that it won't work. i'm not sure it will but it is certainly not right to say that it is doomed from day one. i think it has fair chance. francine: erik, what is surprising to me is actually
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we're expecting angela america toll win this vote again by a large majority. every time there is a vote on greece, it seems the dissenters are growing. do you think she is the most popular if not the most popular chancellor ever? >> she is amazing in that sense. she has approval ratings about 70%. who in the world francine: maybe tsipras. > exactly. snezz control. there is this little bit of resistance from the -- she is in control. there is a little bit of resistance from the right from the c.s.u. guys. it will be interesting to see how the the vote comes. in april, five abstained. she seems really untouchable. the only person she cannot
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touch? n a sense is schaeuble but she has sort of made a deal with him, it appears to me at least. francine: she rocks. thank you so much, erik nielsen. we splept to talk about. choin and the fed. vine, another volatile day. here is more with caroline. currency wars and a lot of volatility on the chinese markets. caroline: you're exactly right. the currency is weakening once again. feeling the pain coming from china's devaluation. looking less competitive. will we see currency wars transpiring? this is what we saw today. currency weakening. he dollar strengthening.
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the vietnamese congress to weakening. -- dong weakening. strong devaluation over the yuan is one. also to leave the market and preempt the negative impact of the fed. this is emerging markets being squeezed. this is why we have got the longest losing streak for merging market foreign currencies since the year 2000 in 15 years. on the one side you have china devaluing. what will the trading partners such as brazil have to do to remain competitive? and you also have the squeeze coming from the federal reserve. the fact that the u.s. could raise rates come september. 50/50 is what the market is telling us in terms of a chance of that happening. that would drain money out of the emerging markets. this is why we're seeing some reaction from the likes of the vietnamese. have a look at stocks, though.
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ally interesting resurge innocence the shanghai composite. they were down 5% this morning. up they went. closed higher. some talk of stimulus and monetary policy could kick in and some that you can the government could once again prop up the stock market. onshore buyers bought it. not so if you're offshore. not so if you're in hong kong. these are chinese stocks traded in hong kong. they remained lower, off by 1.2%. buying this uite talk of stimulus and of china managing to restabilize itself. i want to show you to last picture of the bloomberg terminal. this shows you what all of asia pacific did in the course of today's trading. japan lower. india higher. shanghai composite really sticking out at 1.5% but generally this is a down day against asia and that sort of
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worry about this perfect storm we're breeding, the tact that you have the chinese devaluation and the fact that there is the china slowdown and the federal raid reserve potentially on the horizon here. this perfect storm means people are getting out of asia and emerging markets and it is fueling selloff in europe as well. back to you. francine: thank you. hat brings us to a twitter ke. are emerging markets still good long-term investments? we had a reporter from glencore speaking and he said no one can read china now. you can tweet me. our guest host for the hour is lso at erik fossing. the c.e.o. of glencore, they are trading. they have huge money operations. they said no one can read china.
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what do you do? >> you stay away. i think this is a big awakening that has come. a lot of people thought they could read china but they couldn't really. that has been going on for a couple of years. increasingly so. you look at all of the standard macro imbalances. that is a problem here. we have the new regime. probably for his own power reasons. you realize maybe it is about something else and you rls a lot of stuff is going on that you don't really understand. i think the short answer is we don't understand china. if you don't understand it, you shouldn't go there. francine: it impacts everything. just to go back to your point, what exactly do with not understand? how policy is working or growth figures and how they are consuming? >> everything. i don't think anybody know what is the growth rate is now.
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it is definitely not right if you look at consumption and many other indicators, it is clearly less but how much less we don't really know. number two, we don't quite know what the policy set-up is. the problem is in the regions they need to keep on investing and building in order to keep their power. you're trying to push money into that situation. francine: you stay away from commodities, oil, emerging markets, even anything linked to the fed. we'll talk about the fed afterwards. how far reach can this be? how ugly can it get? >> it can get pretty ugly but i don't think it will. if you have an index, you have to be involved, right? if you a factory in china, you're not closing it dourn. that is stock shift. you're really now probably more than ever need to differentiate
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etween emerging marks. exposure to the fed hike and trade. and policies and protection of properties. francine: erik, thank you so much. erik nielson from union credits. he will be staying with us. we'll be talking about the fed and oil next. oil is sliding again after two opec members vowed to keep pumping despite the global glut. iraq said a boost is needed to meet the needs of its growing population. crude is down 30% from its g.d.p. dragging emergencying markets down to a four-year low. carlsberg shares have plunged after they missed profit estimates. earnings before interest, taxes d one-time items was 2.9
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billion dane irk kronor. -- danish kronor. cathay pacific has reported net income but lagged behind estimates. it comes after they suffered losses from fuel hedging and passenger yields dropped. now toshiba shares have surged after it revamped its board and appointed an interim president to the role permanently. the company is trying to recover from the accounting scandal. toshiba says it is expecting to report that loss for the 2015 fiscal year. >> i accept responsibility for not having been able to prevent the state of affairs. in this, the greatest crisis in toshiba's history, i will focus first and foremost on putting in place policies to prevent this ever from happening again. francine: and i love this story.
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the russian president vladimir putin is at it again. he has take an small submersible craft down to bottom of the black sea to see an ancient shipwreck recently discovered. in another of his exploits he went scuba dyeing and brought up ancient greek pottery. still ahead, how low can oil go? we talk about the slide in the price of crude after the break. ♪
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francine: welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european in london.s here two opec members vowed to keep pumping oil despite the global glitch. let's talk about that with unicredit bank chief global economist eric nelson. oil is linked to china but it is also linked -- has opec lost control? >> no. opec has lost control this i think there is two things going on. the global recovery is not quite as strong as we thought it would be. we are just running about -- we vice president closed --
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francine: and then there is china. >> china is so much more inefficient. relative in its consumption for the g.d.p. is going to be less when ss shipped towards europe. to be sort of moderate. opec has lost control. and we also have storage of oil. i think it can be 40. francine: not 30? it is one of those things impossible to read. >> i smile because a lot of people tell me 30 years, this technical level, i don't understand that to be honest with you but 30 is out there in the market as the turning point but who knows? francine: given what we have talked about with china, does it mean that actually a lot of emerging markets, russian
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particularly, is that something you stay away from? >> if you're looking at the emerging markets, you're looking at places, a particular commodity, most of them are, particularly oil related, this is a really complicated situation. russia is really complicated. you're looking at an 8% or 9% drop in real income. it is not over. francine: all right. >> my feeling is what is the political outfall of this. i don't know the ains. francine: that it could be worse? >> exactly. how bad it is and then the end of it, why do we still like putin? francine: he finds relics. he is a man. erik, thank you so much. erik nielsen from unicredit bank. up next, we talk about the fed. will they shed any light on the time of a rate reik rise?
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and radio and streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg.com. fed minutes are out later. everyone of course will be looking to clues as to whether chair janet yellen will raise rates in september. let's talk about that with erik nielsen. despite china and all the turmoil we have seen in emerging markets you still believe janet
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yellen will raise interest rates? >> yeah, i think the time has come. they have announced it so many times. they would never preannounce. but they have indicated that liftoff is coming so well now so you can't say that. i think they ought to have increased since we talked last time. francine: are we looking at a possible hard landing from china? when you look at china and it is difficult to read, why not take more time? r >> 25 basis.s is not a lot and they are looking at the u.s. economy. what would the impact on the u.s. economy be? if you multiply probability of
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something bad, it is quite a small risk that the u.s. gets in trouble. anything is possible. francine: you're expecting a rate hike and then flat lining? in six months what happens? >> i think they are behind the curve and therefore i think they are going to hike -- the path is going to be steeper than they say and steeper than what is priced. that depends on china not becoming a major global issue in terms of growth and inflation. remember, in u.k., if the underlying is not so low anymore. francine: and the dollar is rising. >> that's right. it is a lot of the inflation -- disinflation now is transitory. we're looking through it, right? that's what that means. my money is on september.
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i feel better about that than did last week. francine: even if we have more currency wars? fighting? like to that 't term, but when you look at a lot over the emerging markets, this is a race to the bottom. >> yeah, it is. remember, the chinese were up, appreciated by 15%, 18%. they are down a couple of percent. this is a game we need to be in also. it is a much more tricky world today. than a couple of years ago. francine: erik, thank you so much for your ininsighted. unicredit's chief economist. up next, cathay pacific is hit by losses, we speak to the chief executive. ivan chu. keep it here on "the pulse." you can follow me on twitter. i'm at flacqua and the twitter question of the day is about emerging markets. it is about china. is it still good long-term
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has missed estimates. earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items was 2.9 .illion danish kronor that is $432 million. aid to votes on the greece. let's check in on the markets. mark barton has the latest. mark? mark: the slowdown in china, b, when will the fed raise rates? we'll get another clue when they might raise rates when meetings of the july meet arrange released later. greece stocks are falling for a second day. that german vote is underway soon. it should pass as should the dutch vote today ahead of that 32.billion euro payment to the
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e.c.b. tomorrow, further proof of stress in asian currencies today. this is the dollar against the vietnamese dong. up 1.2%. vietnam has devalued its currency for the second time in a week. third time this year. china of course is vietnam's biggest trading partner. the dong is at a relative disadvantage vs. other countries. it is not just about the dong today. kazakhstan today allowing its currency to weaken the most since it devalued 18 months ago. its main trading partners are ussia and china as well. the commodities space still takes center stage. the bloomberg commodity index, i just threw a dart and picked one commodity. take your pick. commodity, this is copper fell
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to a low since 2009 earlier. i thought the fascinating comment of the day came from ivan glassingberg, the chief executive officer of glencore. he said that no, no one can read china right now. francine, if glassenberg can't we china, what hope do have? francine: a bit worrying. i'm worried about that. thank you. asia's largest airline by passenger numbers, cathay pacific has disappointing results. we're joined by the chief executive of cathay pacific. he is ivan chu. in a bloomberg report. we spoke to the c.e.o. of glencore. one of the biggest mining, trading producers in the world. he said it is impossible for anyone to read china. how do you read china right now?
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>> thank you. good morning. how we see china, we always believe in the china export story and the tourism story and our current earnings improvement 307.-- it is from a clear reflection of that. we have big exposure in china. about 51% of our revenue comes from china, hong kong. in all of these markets we have seen double digit flows which is -- vs. the of the world currencies. depreciation is 3% recently. what they have forgotten actually is to look at -- or the currency, the euro, the yen. all the currencies around the world, it is a very, very strong
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currency. it is a minor adjustment. we're seeing very good -- from china, taiwan and hong kong. francine: i understand that of course, you know, i understand what you're saying but the devaluation must have an impact big -- because of the exposure. how are you doing with earnings? how are you dealing with that going forward? >> it is china, hong kong. a big amount of passengers going from china to europe. for example, euro in the last 18 months have dropped by more than double digits. the japanese yen, and other very popular destination for the chinese passengers. the chinese currency still very trong. i think there is concern about a
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3% adjustment. earnings. it is actually quite misplaced. so far we have been doing quite well actually. to till continue to be -- believe in china as market. francine: you're quite bullish on china still. there is a lot of worry we're looking at a hard landing. the c.e.o. of glencore said it is impossible to read china. you're not in a worst case scenario for china? >> we can see china in like five years. it has been rising for the last five years. t has been a one-way -- some adjustment, some slowing down. growth slowing down from 10% to 7% is not a huge deal. there are some corrections. i do see it as a correction on this rate. francine: in terms of your
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passenger yields, you had pretty solid passenger loads but yields were down. did you feel a lot of pressure to cut prices and do you feel that pressure going forward? >> actually we have very full price. it was 82%. much higher than the other airlines in asia pacific. if you look at the other figures , it is about 8% more than the other airlines. the yield has been under pressure because of the fuel surcharge, it has come down a lot. if you compare the fuel price we paid one year ago, which is $60 d $110 u.s. brand to now, the surcharge, about 18% less. we are carrying a record passenger load.
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outbound traffic is still doing well. francine: continue hedging oil verse that will you re decision for the coming years? >> hedging fuel price is something that is -- 95% of airlines do it. managing the risk, the outside risk of fuel. loss,hen we are incurring the benefits are much better. when you look at the resulted, this jeer a major improvement over the last three years, you can see the impact of an oil deal, at the same time managing that risk, the upside risk of a fuel price. francine: what is your biggest concern when we talk about the price of oil? are you more concerned about hedge tagget wrong price? how do you minimize the risks that you're seeing on the horizon which are pretty big
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actually at the moment? >> looking forward. if the fuel price continues to remain low, we think that will make a positive contribution to the business. it is still a positive ontribution. i think our concern really is about cargo and china exports. of cargo. you can see that the china -- come down about 8%. so we expect quarter two and quarter three air cargo to be flat and we hope by the fourth quarter we can see some rebound, which is the traditional christmas month. francine: you're worried about cargo but you're trying to address it. we heard from some of your competitors or colleagues that they would welcome an upgraded
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a-380 mod. this is tim clark of the emirates saying he would be interested. would you be interested in something like that? would you think about buying a -380? ed a >> we have a -- from next year and also we have acquired 21777's. we have new aircraft models available. certainly we are open to see. at the moment we are happy with what we have ordered so far. francine: all right. thank you so much. chief executive there of cathay pacific air ways speaking to us . a bloomberg exclusive thank you for your time. lost 73 billion kronor, about 8.8 billion dollars in second quarter pulled down by the fixed income market. the first decline years that. my co-anchor manus cranny has spoken to the c.e.o.
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manus: it is the world's largest southern wealth fund. in three years, the challenges are plenty for every investment manager but joining me now is e c.e.o. of a nor region wealth fund, mr. yngve slyngstad. it is tough the. andquities and fixed income this the kronor. should we hunker down for more volatility? >> it looks on the surface like a quiet market. most returns have been zero for a quite a few of the markets so far this year. well. markets going interest rates went up again after going down. i think the most interesting thing has been the currency and
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the volatility and starting at the beginning of the year, then later emerging market currencies and also the chinese. manus: those currencies are moving constantly at the moment. my question to you there would be can we expect bigger moves? more extensive moves? the chinese have depreciated their currency. what word would you use? is that where the greater volatility would come? >> i think a it is quite possible. it is what we're seeing. the volatility in the markets is quite different. manus: you also mentioned during the news briefing that less money overall coming in from oil revenues. this is the challenge for the fund in terms of how you invest risk and duration. how will that fundamentally change how you ip vest? >> well, you know, one of the things that -- 100% of the revenue into the fund. that means we still are a positive net inflow.
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it is still net positive. it doesn't really change anything. yes, we do not have the same amount of cash flow to reinvest in narcotics, etc. they will be quite large and don't move around that much. manus: if i asked you what the biggest challenge is for you when you join the c.i.o.'s together, is it the fed hiking rate? china? the merging market issues? >> i think it is monetary policy and china. those are influences of different variables and then there is the currency. we see those other two things that we're spending the most time on. manus: your largest treasury holding is in u.s. treasuries. that has been a tough quarter. you have made some adjustments. are the bond markets really ready for the rer received liftoff in rates that we might get from the fed and dare i ask whether you're a september or
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december man. what do you think to have bond? >> is our wealth going to be our place -- on future development and monetary policy. my experience is yes, i think you can generalize and say that. manus: interesting. the world getting ready for liftoff from a zero point world. are we prepared for that? where will that volatility come from? in the equity space or the bond space or the h the currency? >> it is hard to say of course. the market is difficult to redict volatility. equity markets have been flying for the last two years. . w it seems like it is slow there is some uncertainty out there that can suddenly change. manus: let's close on negative global interest rates. will it continue into 2016 and
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how does it impact you in what you do? >> well, we do actually have bonds are negative interest the in the portfolio for moment. only 1% but it is still there. it is a challenge. it is an interesting exercise to think how it is going develop over time so we'll just see what happens. manus: thank you very much for joining us on bloomberg. >> thank you. francine: great interview there with the c.e.o. of norway's oil funds. coming up, find out how badly glencore has been hit by the commodities route. ♪ 34
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london on bloomberg tv. glencore's c.e.o. said no one can read the chinese market. the commodity price route hit, trading is currently lower. jesse, great to have you on the program. you spoke to glassenberg this morning. he said no one can read china. we should be worried? >> yeah. i think investors would be a bit concerned at the head of one of the biggest commodity traders admits they can't read what's happening in china and he put it down to the recent crackdown on corruption in the country which
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has delayed infrastructure projects and called back demand for copper and aluminum. he does see some light at the end of the tunnel and sees those products starting to come online perhaps next year. francine: glencore also has this huge trading arm. out the ave canceled commodity route. but the trades they took were just not the right ones. is that fair? >> it is the premium s that areattached to corps and aluminum that are paid just collapsed in the first half so it affected all metals traders. copper and aluminum and nickel as well. it has been a fairly stunning this e in the share price
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morning. i think that is the market digesting the weak trading operation s of glencore and they have had to readjust their forecast, as we talked about earlier. the market really pays a lot of -- almost a premium to glencore for that trading business and its capacity. we just didn't see it in the first half. francine: glencore was one of the worst performers this year. you spoke to an investors. i know you didn't want -- he didn't want to be called an activist. he has take an significant share of glencore at 4.5%. >> no doubt he is hurting today after that investment he bought over the past month. ratcheted up from 1% to 4.5%. investment over $1 billion. he talked about it as being a value play. he likes the copper business. he likes their trading position. it will be interesting to see his reaction to the share price, down almost 9%%. tracy: we have a stock, an
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investor that actually just yesterday put its weight behind the stock and it is all about the credit rating and whether they can hold on to that. >> that's right. the credit rating is hugely important to a company like glencore. if they get a rating cut, that is going to significantly add costs to their trading business. it is a huge factor for the company. everyone is talking about it. the market is focused on it. but they think they can protect that rating and pay a dividend. at id we can walk and gum the same time which is quite punch fri from him. francine: that is what investors like to hear, though. now, we should point out that peter, the chairman of bloomberg l.p., the parent o bloomberg news is a senior independent nonexecutive director at glencore. here are some more of bloomberg's top headlines today. the force will be with you on japan's largest airline. all nippon air ways will start
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lying a bogey 747 to look liar rtd 2. the hackers who stole the personal details of the users of a website claim to have leased the dad on the sbir net. .- internet it has published almost 10 gigabytes of information including credit card information, emails and passwords. and heidi klum has fired back at donald trump after he said she was no long aero10. we're talking about ratings here. she posted a short video on instagram with the hashtag heidi trumps trump. she had a t-shirt with a 10 that goes down to 9.9. coming up on "the pulse," all
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, we're joined by hans nichols in berlin. hans: i've been listening to the debate all morning. you hear a lot of german politicians getting a lots of anger off of their chests. most of the conservative anger is resigned anger. they say we have an obligation not just to greece but to europe as a whole to support this. for the looking margin, whether or not there are more or less 60 defections. the far left party here in germany, they are sort of disavowing mr. tsipras. you see a split between the far left here in germany and mr. tsipras. they don't like to deal tsipras has agreed to. francine: that is really interesting. thank you so much. hans nichols with the latest. later tonight we'll have the fed minutes. watch out for any clues about what janet yellen will do at the next meeting. that's it for "the pulse." keep it here on bloomberg tv. stay tuned for the "surveillance" team. they are up next live from new
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doubt the fed will -- goldman sachs and morgan stanley doubt the fed will act. we discuss in minutes. someamerican consumers -- shop and some do not. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. it is wednesday, august 19. i'm tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley and vonnie quinn. brendan: they are making the case in front of the bundestag. we will talk with hans nichols in a second. angela merkel will not talk. we think she will put it on wolfgang schauble. we are not worried about whether this passes. the greek it will pass. we are looking at how many members of her party defect. president like the and joer
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