tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 19, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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matt: good afternoon. scarlet: we have the federal reserve just releasing its minutes from its july meeting. released five minutes early this time around. matt: someone did. scarlet: michael mckee has been going through all the headlines. cannot call it breaking news now, but it does seem to be all about inflation at the moment. when fed officials met three weeks ago, most of the minutes say the conditions for policy had not yet been achieved. the conditions were approaching that point. confidence prices would continue to move up. inflationisks from to -- that's what the fed
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markets have been looking for. higher rates of resource utilization appeared to have had limited affects the date on wages and prices. they agreed to continue to monitor inflation deponents closely with all members indicating they would need to see more evidence that economic growth is sufficiently strong and labor market conditions confirmed enough. befores three weeks ago the latest jobs and price data was released. the time, some emphasized the economy had made significant progress over the past few years and the economic conditions were met shortly. while they generally agreed additional information on the outlook will be necessary before they move, one member indicated a readiness to take the step at this meeting.
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probably jeffrey lacher, although no specifics were given. others were worried they might get behind the curve. if they went ahead and raised rates now, it would show that that's confidence in the economy and it would be good. concerns about the impact of the dollar and international developments on growth over the longer term. scarlet: things have changed a lot since these minutes were released. emerging markets have come under fire, china has devalued its yuan. matt: does the fed take the oil picture with a grain of salt? mike: and they generally do. they look at the core rate because they figure oil prices will be transitory. west texas was selling for $140
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a barrel, they were not raising rates at the time. matt: before that, $10 a barrel. going to prices were stabilize. we'll see stabilization in the dollar. still only question is, when. when do you start raising rates? it will affect market confidence. scarlet: let's get a check of how the markets reacted to the release. we will check in with remy. ramy: the markets appeared to be sure enough the fomc minutes right now. rising obsession lows. off session lows. the s&p 500 down by .7%. with .6% down there. we are seeing action over the at the 10 year.
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we did see a bit of a fall. investors seem to be pushing into perceived safety there. the 10 year at its lowest since may 29. the dollar gets bike right after the news. that is still in negative territory. -- the dollar did spike right after the news. scarlet: you have to look at the front end. the yield at the lowest of the session right now. 65 basis points. the move has held on. matt: very interesting. investors buying up front of the curve after they see those minutes. real reaction to the news. former perspective, we are joined by john herman, rate strategist -- michael mckee still with us.
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let me get your quick take on those minutes. did it look like there is more chance that some denver won't be at? -- that september will be it? is backingrs the fed off september. they needed to see some further evidence on the labor market. when it came time for saying here is our willingness to pull the trigger, in june, they said all but one wanted to wait. this time around, members generally agreed that they needed to see -- they are still saying they have not seen enough. it wasn't like all but one. they did not say all but five were all but three were all but a few. they are still pretty dovish on this. the instant snapback -- talk about the market reaction. pushing out the idea that september will be a hike.
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isve 134 basis points, that the market reaction saying they have less conviction to go in september. fixed income was pushing back on the fed. scarlet: you've written about how the fed has lowered the bar for liftoff. how much of a gap is there between what the fed is projecting now with the revisions and what the market is pricing in? michael and the market is moving away from where the fed had been. the market is moving away from where the fed had been. gradually, the two sides had come together. this will still be very data dependent. if we get a strong jobs report on september 4, it could change people's minds again. this was three weeks ago that they were seeing this.
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when they talk about the dollar, talk about oil prices, we've seen movement in those since that time. we know we were concerned about them -- we are going out to jackson hole in another week. there will be a lot of fed officials talking to the media. you will get a lot of individual abuse, you can count them up and that will be the most important determinant. views.vidual matt: does the fed not bend over backwards to make that data look the way they needed to? they want to raise rates, right? would seem to be believed that's what they want to do. yet, as you get closer and closer to the date, they continue to find ways to back
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away. in these minutes, what i've been able to pick up is there was some lack of the sightedness in terms of wage pressures -- decidedness in terms of wage pressures. they are finding ways to wiggle away from pulling the trigger. looking at these minutes. you've been highlighting the conditions in u.s. markets and other countries around the world , concerned about the fed may be moving in september. china started to ease in front yuanat to cheapen up the in anticipation. matt: the imf told us not to. >> exactly. they need to see some further evidence and yet, you did not
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get that kind of message in these -- >> some members were concerned if they wait, there are financial stability questions. if they stretch out, does that create more problems? >> i would be in that camp. the perfect economy they want is not achievable by cutie. -- by qe. we need a more unified congress to address these issues. it's ok, butying not that great. slack in thes of wage pressures -- scarlet: there is also what happened between the fomc meeting and today. devaluation.an
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havey mentions of the yuan picked up come a surpassed the number of mentions of the dollar. what would be the specific worry that might give policymakers pause? >> when i look at china, i think the cheapening of the yuan has two motivations. growth and there is not quite as strong as they like and they will have a hard time moving. --re is more towards 5% exports are also sensitive and have not been decidedly strong in china. the dollar will be an issue because if you raise rates, you will strengthen the dollar. that is adverse to their export story. at the end of the day, what chinais nervous about --
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is trying to address their own domestic growth issues. matt: it is the news right now. mike: what does it really mean? we will not know for a while. they stop here, it was a 3% move, which is negligible. it will not have much of an effect on inflation or exports. if they keep going, if the events force the yuan weaker or if we see more devaluation, we have a growth problem because we don't tell is many exports and we have a problem with importing disinflation. that is another one of those things, we will have to wait until we get closer to the meeting to be able to tell. scarlet: mike mckee, thank you so much. john herman joining us as well. ahead, those fed a stress tests are pretty stressful or bank of america. brian moynihan has a little over 30 days left to prove his bank
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matt: a look at new york city on what has become a hazy and muggy , her and to stay in new york city. exciting in the office because there is a lot going on. the fed minutes were released early and we saw a real reaction in the markets. scarlet: the short end of the yield curve -- you are looking at the two-year deal. at session lows low set 6594. people are buying short-term debt, buying the 2-year note.
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prices go up, yields go down. concernedinvestors the fed will raise rates in september, some of those are thinking they may wait until december. let me by the front end of the curve and get ahead of the pack. scarlet: the probability of the fed moving in september has gone up to 30%. to 38%. yesterday, it was 48%. matt: almost 60% a week ago. equities --t the the bond markets moving. a total turnaround in the equity markets as well. ramy: that's right. investors appear to be shoring up the fomc meetings. we can see a specific upturn in just the past several minutes. coming near the flatline, down by 1.4%.
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-- the nasdaqy getting near the flatline. of the s&p, most of the sectors are still in the red. they are not as bad as earlier today. energy still is the biggest laggard with oil and gas companies being the biggest way down. let's take a look at the oil price as well. today, it is retreating after its biggest gain in a week. thislight uptick speculation that increased opec output will extend global supply surplus. that could come from iraq and angola. over to gold, the safe haven is at its highest since july 17.
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we did see a spike after the fomc meetings did come out. gold up by 1.1%. i want a little semantics. i don't think markets are shrugging off the fed minutes but reacting strongly to the fed minutes. ,ull up scarlet's terminal right at the release, you had an instant drop-down and then a jump in the equity markets. any investors who were reading this seemed to be reacting quite strongly with the purchases. spf 20ity markets minutes had a much bigger effect than we predicted today. -- the fomc minutes had a much bigger effect than we predicted today. scarlet: the indexes are little changed. in the context of where they
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were before the minutes, it has been a big change. let's move on and go on to some company news. bank of america shareholders gathering next month to decide if brian moynihan can keep his title. they will not be the only ones weighing in. matt: if the fed finds that the bank did not fix weaknesses, investors won't be seeing an increased dividends or share buybacks and they are losing their patients. gh.ning us for moore is hu be of a has not had a great track record. it could possibly once again disappoint investors. hugh: you have a really tricky time in september. i don't think brian moynihan is taking the summer off. you have people voting on whether or not he should be chairman. scarlet: for a while, he was the
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only ceo of a big bank that was not also chairman. that changed in 2014. year,in october of last the board elected him chairman and ceo. back in 2009, it was a contentious time, they separated those roles. -- decided to overrule that bank of america decided to overrule that. scarlet: they are still upset about that. -- he has a lot riding on what happens come september. this jamie dimon get involved in the weekly meetings? q: they have to if it is a risk. he said if i don't pass this, maybe i should not be running this place.
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brian moynihan has never said that. the cfo left recently. that's an indication they are taking this to heart. matt: the cfo did not leave. wasn't he forced out? scarlet: semantics. matt: as punishment for failing previous stress tests or an assurance to brian moynihan that he did not have someone to take his job. they say thompson wanted to run his own company and that's why he left. outside observers and people in the company who whisper say it's a problem they did not pass. he owned that as cfo and maybe that's why he left. scarlet: moynahan's biggest accomplishment is he cleaned up the legal mess and bank of america. they acquired countrywide.
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hence he had to contend with much bigger legal overhang? are they that much bigger that he was so preoccupied with it that getting everything together for the stress test was -- kind of took a backseat? mortgage,trywide think about countrywide -- it was the biggest mortgage lender back in 2006. s&p with the historic housing bubble -- people give him some leeway. -- he did not make that decision. all the mistakes with messaging to investors and regulators about the stress tests, that is his part he owns that. matt: excellent context. scarlet: as point man henan hunkers down for the pet stress test -- brian moynihan hunkers down for the fed stress test.
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matt: the prius is finally getting a makeover. toyota will be announced his first redesign to the car in almost seven years. tous became the first hybrid cross half a million units in its first year on the market. tesla sells 1/10 of that a year. scarlet: they are chasing totally different markets. thisrius definitely needs makeover because sales have fallen in japan. that is the biggest market.
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year.plunged 31% this in the u.s. come also down by double digits, 14% this year. matt: i've always found a certain model of the prius to be equal looking. it looks kind of futuristic. scarlet: back in 2000 and looked futuristic. not anymore. matt: the rear is kind of transparent. you can see through the rear liftgate. has admired what the prius done. it created a market. it owns this market. it's amazing the miles per gallon breakthrough they have made with this car. my problem has always been the prius drivers. they are among the worst drivers on the roads. scarlet: technically bad drivers or just self-righteous? matt: i don't know if it's because they are self-righteous, but prius drivers will always
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drive whatever speed they like in the left lane, regardless of whether or not they are passing. the left lane is for passing only. it doesn't matter if you are driving a prius or taxi or limousine, you should not be in the left lane unless you are passing. scarlet: what about the new toyota car? tf1 is what everyone is excited about. what i'm excited about with trucks are awesome. scarlet: we will be back with more. ♪
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. we begin with the latest minutes from the federal reserve meeting in july. janet yellen and other members said while conditions for raising interest rates were approaching, they still feel there is more room for labor market healing and they need more confidence that inflation is moving towards their goal. this comes four weeks before the september meeting with most economists forecast the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006. the fed has 80% target for inflation. the economy is not exactly cooperating. -- the fed has a 2% target for inflation. the consumer price index rose .1%, less the next victim. fuel prices barely budged and the cost of airfare, cars and home furnishings all declined. the price of oil resumed falling today. a government report shows that he crude stockpiles unexpectedly increased. that set the price of west texas intermediate below $41 a barrel once again.
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the fda has approved the first prescription drug aimed at boosting sexual desire in women. the pill is called addyi. doctors will not be able to prescribe it until they have taken an online certification program. the doctors will have to counsel patients about the risks for which included nausea, drowsiness and dizziness. we spoke with the ceo. programll go out with a we will go forward with physicians, health care providers, pharmacies, take them through a slide deck online in which they will be educated, they will become certified to prescribe or dispense it. getting this right for women is important for us. scarlet: anthem says it will cover the libido pill on its to your free plan. the hackers who stole data from ashley madison are naming names online. the website encourages married
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people to have affairs was breached last month. the postings include user identities, dresses, phone numbers and payment information. the hackers want the company to shut down ashley madison. those are your top stories at this hour. at sunup, investors edison getting burned after shares dropped by more than 40%. 50% in the last few weeks. , why oneng to dining iron ore company's shelving its are in business to start a new venture, selling eggs. one private equity firm is betting big on the fashion industry. why they may just have the upper hand. meantime, in sports, a hearing is underway in the tom brady case. it is taking place in new york. brady and the nfl players continued to stand
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their ground. brady is open to some kind of suspension, just as long as it's not accepting blame for itself.ate joining us with more perspective is mark conrad. saying that today was a bad day for the nfl. why is that? mark: he was very skeptical in his questioning of the nfl lawyers. he has devoted far more questioning on the nfl lawyers than the union side. report --ty of the this is the report was commissioned by the nfl saying brady probably was involved in this matter. also, the process involved. commissioner goodell decided this matter. it really can't be good news for
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the nfl when you have the federal judge saying you know what, we have some questions about this whole process and we have questions about factual matters as well. matt: was there any time the judge did except the nfl's premise? , thererom what i heard was more skepticism than many thought there would be. last week, it was more evenhanded. today, it seemed he really had more skepticism toward the league and the process of decision-making that he did in the past. scarlet: do you think that might be because tom brady was not there at the courtroom? there, like the judge have turned to him and questioned him more? mark: i don't think so. it is not relevant today because he did not have to be there. when he does have to be there is next week. that's when the judge said once
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the party is in next week to hammer out a settlement. if not, the judge will have to make is rolling. -- make his ruling. i still don't think there will be a settlement next week. the sites are too far apart. now, the union doesn't smell something here. look, we have this judge that has expressed skepticism. why should we settle? there have been reports that there was some settlement offer made. that they want to do that now. i think they want to see what they could get. i think they will take the risk of a court decision in this case. scarlet: who has more to lose here? mark: the league has more to lose. i would also have to say that the union has something to lose,
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tubing. it will be more embarrassing to the league, the third strike. -- something to lose, too. lingers,lly, if this there will be appeals. it could take months and months. it will be hanging on the union side. we cannot forget, the union helped create this problem because the last negotiation for a collective bargaining agreement, they bought on the idea of an independent arbitrator. negotiations -- it puts them in a position to ,ay if we had a stronger system we had a neutral arbitrator, we would not be in this mess now. scarlet: do you think the judge will be swayed by the fact that football season is fast approaching and people want to get this sorted out? mark: he did not say that today.
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he doesn't have to. he can take his time. it is a comic in matter, he does not have to make a determination by day one of the season. -- it is a complicated matter. scarlet: what about the fact that this has resulted in fatigue inside the leak and outside the leak -- inside the league and outside the league? do they have the incentive to get this resolved as quickly as possible? mark: he really wants them to because he does not want to make that decision. it's better to have a settlement -- let's play football. it doesn't mean it's going to happen. scarlet: a very interesting next couple of weeks. thank you for your perspective. up, a full -- we will be
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scarlet: let's get a look at the top stories at this hour. japan launching an unmanned transport vehicle carrying water , parts and other supplies to the iss. the vehicle was launched in southern japan early this morning following weather-related delays. the transport vehicle is carrying 4.5 tons of supplies for the six members pay station crew. it will take five days to reach the station. arobot says it has received
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$4 million order from the u.s. navy. the model 110 personal robot -- the five pound expand will robot can minute late -- medically has missed materials. manipulate dangerous materials. after starting her career as a belly dancer, she landed dozens of acting roles. she was best known for originating the role of batgirl on abc's batman. those are your top stories. it has been a rough month for investors at sunedison. the stock has tumbled 50% in just the past month and the company is keenly aware of the decline. introducing new initiatives attendant -- brian wuebbels spoke earlier today.
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bryan: there has been an impact across the sector. sunedison has been reported over the last year for its growth and execution. clearly, we've seen a shift in sentiment across the sector. the vehicle and everybody lost half their value. -- not everybody lost half their value. brian: what we've done is shore up liquidity across the business. with 2 billion dollars of liquidity across the platform and the moves we've made over the last couple of weeks have added another $2 billion of liquidity. cory: i find the structure of your company confusing. i spent some time to try to figure it out. why does the company have that such a convoluted structure? solar city has a lot of similar structures. is it about the tax incentives? brian: it is quite
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straightforward. we have a development company that builds and constructs new renewable assets. we have the holding companies. they hold the assets long-term. the value of building an asset and selling it is less than building an asset and owning it for life. the structure allows sunedison shareholders to enjoy the benefits of the project and the ing-term cash flows present these assets for the next 20 happened 30 years. -- 20-30 years. you've been buying wind and solar assets. when do you think those investments will start to pay off? brian: as we've shown in the hasuncement, each one contributed to the dividend growth. right now, the focus of the company is back to the basics, focusing on the continued
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execution we've had the last two years and continuing to drive value for shareholders. there is no question the u.s. is a great market for renewable energies. billion -- china, india and brazil have the highest growth markets. china continues to be supportive of renewable energy efforts. invested $84 billion. tovia: you are borrowing grow. you got a loan from goldman sachs how expensive was that that? brian: very consistent with the cost of capital across the company. that facility is a warehouse which allows us to house assets before we drop them into our vehicles. during cost competitive. -- you what is your take feel the u.s. is behind the curve on renewable energy? ryan: the u.s. has done a great job.
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when you look at the growth of the industry, it continues to grow. over 50% of new additions of power were renewable energy assets. brian wuebbelsas . the today check on commodity prices. it has been ugly for the commodity complex. the damage done to nymex crude come off by 3%. i have to bring in alix steel who has been looking at this. the macrossi from concerns, what specifically might be driving a lower today? alix: the bears sentiment continues to build. we saw a huge inventory build by 2.6 million barrels. there was some unplanned and
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just from refineries. utilization was down by 1%. that is a short-term thing, not a longer-term issue. you had capital economics sing these unplanned outages accounted for two thirds of that inventory build. you have to that inventory build with a huge grain of salt. there's stronger gasoline demand and we did see u.s. production declined by 47,000 barrels. scarlet: those outages are something you need to consider, more nuanced than this number from the majority in a report. two people who happen looking at the carnage in the oil market consider all that? alix: traders, no. it doesn't take a lot for traders to get bearish on oil. -- thereive data point is so much financial money still in the markets, in particular with brent citigroup had a note
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saying it is possible for us to retest this 2008 low. what will cause the bottom is the question. you have to see u.s. shale cut in their production, what will make them do that? oil lower than their cash cost for an extended amount of time. it depends on where you are. somewhere in the shell areas, looking at 20 saturday's. thehale areas, looking at 20's and the 30's. it has to be a sustained lower level. you will not see that get shot in. determineer when they how much they will loan oil companies come if they have to raise money themselves, they will not be able to do that and that could force asset sales. that is to finding the bottom.
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citigroup is saying, will we find it, what will be the catalyst? $40 60 success. that's $40.60. scarlet: let's take a look at mining. a couple minors are switching their business from mining to dining. when canadian company shelving its iron ore business to sell eggs. -- iron oror surplus surplus has forced them to distribute eggs. you've been looking into this -- you were excited about this story because a prices -- and prices have been going up. -- egg prices have been going up. alix: it seems like a total of 180 in this company is not the only one doing that. there is a brazilian iron or
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miner selling cosmetics. scarlet: two very different businesses. company,s particular what they do is they find reserves, they do not mine them, but they seldom to bigger companies. that's why they are putting a hold on it and using all this money to find other ways of making revenue. they are working with the next player in australia -- egg supplier in australia. they might even expanding to other foods. they came up with a subsidiary to do that. if we cannot make money selling these assets, let's make money somewhere else. 30% of the particular company is owned by state-owned chinese companies as well.
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that might explain why they can pivot so easily. these are distribution companies more than anything else. alix: particularly with this company. they are not producing the iron ore. the brazilian company, they are literally producing cosmetics. they changed their entire business to make up. scarlet: i really wonder what they are making. thank you so much. alex deal will be back at the top of the hour. back atsteel will be the top of the art. warren buffett says invest in what you know. how women are using the strategy to find success. ♪
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scarlet: hot, muggy midtown manhattan. good afternoon. this is the bloomberg market day. women rarely drive private equity. $3 billion under management and focuses on consumer brands. it's a secret weapon may be that 40% of its managers are women compared with the industry standard of about 10%. they are now pushing into the fickle industry of fashion. -- you me now is lindsay cover retail for us at bloomberg. there has been a lot of activity. how often do you speak with senior managers that are women?
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lindsey: it's a credibly record of most of the people taking these copies private are meant. -- it's incredibly rare. most of the people taking these companies private are men. tsg is always invested in consumer products and have had women in the ranks of senior leadership. women make a lot of purchasing decisions. consumers't you have -- it just makes sense. when they decided to turn to fashion after being all-around consumer products for years, they had a lot of women running the investing portion of their business. one business they invest in is this online clothing retailer. they thiswho invested suggest they invest in them was already a shopper.
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suggestedan who that they invest in them was already a shopper. scarlet: what about their track record? it's one thing for them to say this is our profile. how will have they done? , theyy: according to data have a good track record. their performance has been almost twice as good as the market. more than twice as good as the market come actually. it seems to be working for them. scarlet: have they turned around any old, tired brands? you wonder what the pe firms will do to change fortunes. lindsay: their strategy is not to invest in old, tired brands. they will not buy american apparel, but they are investing in up-and-coming companies. somebody doing something different. they take time to look at the industry before they make their first investment. -- they look for
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something that sets them apart. they are all about growth, helping that business get to the next level and grow. they been involved with vitamin water, now page denim. what do the women say about the overwhelming male presence in pe? lindsay: i don't think they see it as being a gender specific thing. you have an advantage when you the user of the product. you are approaching your investment from a different perspective. scarlet: thank you very much. we have more coming up on the bloomberg market day. alix steel joins me, next. ♪
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the lifespan of publicly traded companies. >> small oil companies may be protected on the plunge for now but it will not last forever. >> and the first prescription drug to boost women's sex drive is headed to market. ceo behind the company of viagra for women. ♪ scarlet: good afternoon, everyone. scarlet fu with alex steele. alix: we are seeing a definite reaction rum those fed minutes. if you see the incline for the s&p right after the minutes, unable to hold that flatline or the day. the s&p now off by 18 points. two points away from the 200 day moving average. a pretty
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