tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 20, 2015 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT
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u.s. erases the gains for the first straight day as concerns intensify for global slowdown. increase inexpected supply adds to the global oil glut. snap elections as he tries to retalix -- a tackle with alien and the latest deal. at televised live address in the coming hour, and we will bring you the headlines as they roll across. betty: good afternoon. i am betty liu. i am at miller. the s&p bouncing around a little bit at the bottom of the range down 1.5% in 2047. rightnes down 273 point
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now. the s&p trading fairly at the session those after european markets fell 2%. pretty much across the board. asian markets down and gettingies had been crushed. a little bit of a bounce back during the middle of the morning . taking a look to see how nymex oil is trading now. a little bit of a bounce up. still less than $41 per barrel. under $47 per barrel. gold has been doing well amid the global turmoil. betty: people are panicked. looking for a safe haven. see -- here you see nymex crude over at time of about six years. you can see the last leg down was an addendum to the previous leg earlier in the year. betty: basically losing
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everything in a matter of months. thinking about the safe haven buying going on. you were seeing that on the longer end of the yield curve. the yield up because there is expectations we will see it rise. that continuing to fall now under 40%. the currency markets, a check on the dollar. the dollar is right now a little bit weaker against the yen, but pretty much at a four-month high really given some of the safe haven buying in. selling across the board on many of the commodity currencies. kazakhstan abandoning the currency peg. kazakhstancare about ? related to oil but also, because we are seeing what appears to be a currency war beginning, starting with china but then the announced as well and kazakhstan, so who is next is
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the question? getting a look at the top stories at this hour, greece prime minister calling for reelection. the vote will be held september 20. agreeing to austerity measures in exchange for another bailout. greece just received the first portion of the aid money. going straight to jonathan stearns handing outside the prime minister's office in athens live on the phone for us. what is the reaction right now on the ground to the news of the snap elections? john: the prime minister seems to be banking on two things, first as his personal popularity, which has remained more or less intact for six very hisicult month for administration and seems to be counting on the fact that he can cash in on the recent agreement with creditors on the third rescue package for greece which ensures it contains rescue bills for the european central bank.
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he does have rebellion in his own party that he found it increasingly difficult to deal with and remain a credible leader of the country. do you think we will see him come back with support of the opposition party? does he intend to try to hold on to the prime minister spot? >> there may be a caretaker prime minister and the time between his announcement this evening and the elections, which are be september 20. the list fringe part of it party , the leader of the party has pledged to create his own group. there is a party left on wielding and over which he would have more control. after that, whether he would
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able -- be able to govern on it his own as an open question. if not, the idea is he would enter negotiations with other pro-european parties after the election or with his current partner, the independent greeks in order to form a governing majority. betty: is any of this going to jeopardize at all the european economy? athon: in that respect, the situation this month is not comparison to 2012 when the economy was in freefall and there was a lot of talk about race leaving the eurozone. the difference now is greece has the new an agreement on rescue package, it has just gotten the first aid under that and has just gotten expressions of support and confidence from european partners. so in a way, there is not the
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kind of time that would be lost that we saw in 2012 when greece limbo,ically in political and economic, for the better part of year. the neck at of measures. requirements to be eligible for aid disbursements under the new rescue program. in that respect, he may get expressions of support from european supporters. the european commission president chief of staff sent out a tweet this evening thing thehought it might increase pro-european and pro-bailout courses within the greek parliament. betty: we will leave it there. jonathan stearns outside the prime minister's office where he is about to the.
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aswill bring you updates they come out. missouri senator claire mccaskill says she will support the iran nuclear deal bringing president obama" to the votes needed to up hold the deal, even he opposes it. he needs a more senators to sustain his veto if the republican-controlled congress passes a resolution rejecting the deal next month. another sign of the strengthen the housing market. existing home sales rose 2% in july, the highest level since february 2007. economists had forecasted sales would fall. the real estate market helped by low mortgage rate and continued job growth. that is a look at some of the top stories we're following at this hour. coming up in the next half hour, salesforce reports the latest earnings after the closing bell. we will get a preview of what -- a report of what the reports may say. betty: deutsche bank considering the biggest overhaul in more than a decade. how deep the cuts could go.
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as we have been reporting, more strong data as the u.s. housing market data. u.s. existing sales to the highest level since february 2 thousand seven, reaching an annualized rate of five point 9 million homes. this morning on bloomberg reiterated pimco cio his call that the housing market will grow 10% over the next several years, even if the fed hikes interest rate. >> if you look at housing affordability right now, both atright and rent, owning house is incredibly cheap. it would take a 2% rise in thegage rates to go back to long-term average. very modest pickup in mortgage rates, which today are under 4%. that can be handled in an economy that is adding 2.9 million private sector jobs alone. matt: someone else who made a buy call is tom shapiro,
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president and chief investment earners.t gpi he joins us on set. thank you for spending time with us. safe to say you are more bullish on how it he expects 10% growth in the industry? >> i think he is right on. i think the other factor is the millennials. so they are the largest holder on record. the demographics on your favor. 86 point 5 million people, and now the oldest of 30 years old, and clearly starting to make decisions to move and give up the urban lifestyle for the suburban lifestyle. matt: everyone was concerned millennials would not want to own home after the crisis. they do not need to own this stuff. they will share everything. i think that is until they get married and start thinking about families. i think you have to work to separate the ownership versus
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lifestyle decision. i want a cool, urban lifestyle and then the family and need to think about the backyard in schools for the kids. the financial dissection -- decision a second so you've seen homeownership rates dropped precipitously. now down 64%. that trend will probably continue. i think we need to think about do we need houses, and will people own and rent them? we have a big portfolio of homes. we are now building them. that is a new trend. i think you have to separate those wishes. betty: why are you building home to rent when you say we are on the cycle of people buying homes? >> people are making the decision to move into homes. whether they buy or rent them is different. a generation ago most people bought the home. buy ant an apartment and home. we have to think about the world different today. they are getting married later.
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cohabitating. they are traditionally having families. average age of getting married now is pushing 30 years old for a man. a couple years younger for a woman. to separate it, but we still need housing units. we have been saying for a long time we need to get back to production. we need to produce 1.4 million housing units every year. i said we will have a dramatic housing shortage. back then we were producing what we would produce during world war ii and the great depression 500 thousand homes. last year we produced one million homes. this year maybe 1.2 million homes. we are still behind. that is just based on demographics. it just does not matter. it is how many housing units we need right now. betty: is all of this going to happen in a vacuum? stocks are down 200 points. look like a currency war is brewing. china demand is faltering. disconnect to be a
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between the market and global growth picture. let'backup between demand and what people need for housing unit. demographics. people are getting older. run at the global financial crisis, you saw that we stop producing houses. people were doubling up, people moving in with mom and dad. now what has happened, we have been producing jobs, and now apple are starting to move out and create household. what they do and where they moved to is completely different from where they were a decade ago at a may to manufactured , multi, rental housing units or a single-family house. if you look at the household will gon, the lord he to single-family rental and single-family homes. we do hear from almost everyone we have a shortage of supply. let me move you down south a little.
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betty's point about the global growth picture, it will almost andy over the past few days weeks, especially what is going on in asia, brazil has long looked. him for a year recession . you investing in brazil? >> we stopped investing a year ago. we just got back. we pride a hotel company. atized a hotel company. let me give you what i think the picture there. you will it is because the markets are just dressed. ofzil caught up on a bunch things all converging at the same thing. the u.s. largest trading partner for china that worked out great in 2009. not so great in china slowing down. world produces what the needs, iron alloy -- iron or and
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beef, and ethanol. all of that is testing to go up. as to that the fed tapering and now raising interest rates that have killed all of the currencies. you are giving me all the reasons you do not want to be in the market. rex totally. i agree that brazil will be a tough day for a couple of years. liquidityned is the crisis in brazil. 44 million people exited poverty. 20% of the population. we just launched an affordable anding logic two months ago sold 500 and it's in two months. there are pockets where there is still really good demand and people need money. we are buying assets cheap and being a liquidity provider to the industry. cautiously investing but think it will be an unbelievable opportunity. matt: great to have you. tom shapiro, president and chief investment officer at gtis
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betty: welcome back to the bloomberg "market day." i'm betty liu that with matt miller. matt: going to julie hyman with a look at how markets are doing right now bouncing around the bottom of session lows. julie: yes, indeed. back to being the worst a lot since late january as the selling does accelerate here. earlier he saw the dow fall 270 points. near the says we are bottom, that is what he is talking about.
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taking a look at the action. we have been trending lower throughout the day. all of the global growth concerns percolating. the uncertainty about the federal reserve and whether it will raise rates in the mid- stood this is weighing on investors as well. in terms of stocks weighing the most on the s&p 500 because of the index weight in part, apple selling off by 2% 3%. set in thesales second quarter chinese sales fellcells -- for the first time ever, causing concern for technology investors. does the downgraded by bernstein, talking about a andlar design and a tv facebook taking a hit, down by 4%. then there is netflix, which has doubled this year, the s&p 500 best performer but selling off 7%.ore than
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some of the top performers are among those doing the worst today. chipmakers have been selling today. we have seen from likeness of microsoft -- micron and sandisk falling. sandisk in particular downgraded. analysts think we should see another 20% pullback in memory prices. take a look at the bloomberg terminal. this is the year to date charge of the semi conductors. from top to bottom and 19% pullback. almost a bear market within the semi conductors as there has been waning demand for the pc. the smartphone out from gardner, not good news either. no indeed. thank you, julie hyman, senior market correspondent. much more ahead, salesforce may be sold and hp splitting up. matt: those companies also report earnings today. previous from cory johnson after the break. -- previews. ♪
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matt: welcome back to bloomberg. a cloudy view of hot and muggy new york city. if you are not here, thank your lucky stars. betty: a look at the top stories at this hour. looks like you miss your chance a tabloido buy newspaper. the new york daily news off the market. more sacraments met with several interested parties but decided not to sell it. -- morton zuckerman. tings and the it is has prompted a major change for moviegoers. starttheaters will now checking bags. they operate more than 500 30 u.s. theaters. ever wonder what happens to your
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luggage once you have left it in the bag drop-off? a luggage camera and amsterdam so you can see what you are luggage is up to. this offers a view of the massive transportation network, something travelers rarely get to see. germany says it cannot cope much longer with the pace of refugee arrivals, but has taken a ton of them in. preparing for 800,000. in the eu.refugees the german interior minister says other countries need to do more to help, but ever since the girl cried on television with angela merkel they decided to except a lot. cause expand the latest emerging market to take up control of the exchange rate. falling 22% against the dollar as the government went to a free-floating currency. cause expand hit hard by a drop in oil prices in china's
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evaluation -- devaluation of the lebron james hoping he can inspire young latinos. a nike sponsored program aimed leftnding young men the basketball players. that is a look at some of your global stories today. the europeanat market close. carolyn hide from london. carolyn: the perfect storm is brewing here in europe. we have seen the affects all morning of what has been happening in asia, concerns of a slowdown in china, the emerging markets selloff, commodities selloff -- all of this fueling this a lot here in europe. check out what has happened to the dax, not one single climber in the germans dock index. everything is in the red. thanks and insurers leaving the fall at the moment.
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cloud comingtorm over. it is greece. we understand alexis tsipras will have elections september 20. yet seen a selloff in the market in athens down by 3.5%. the banks really feeling the hardest hit at the moment. this adding to the concern of political stability in greece. iss is what alexis tsipras striving for. he wants to regain strength after forcing the bailout to depend upon his opposition. revolt fromue and those within his own party. basically you roving his own government majority and therefore, wants to reclaim that and go back to the polls. it is having a damaging effect in stock. every single industry group calling. the ftse 100 very close to a correction territory.
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a flight to safety. money flowing into the likes of the u.k. on the two-year debt. money going out of greece. we are up 1.3%. the perfect storm. emerging markets concerned. today we under's and of course the greek tragedy rearing its ugly head. indeed, and affecting us here in the u.s. on that note, i am signing off. thought togiven any sing on with me for the next half hour gap that she is going to leave. coming up next half hour, we have a lot for you with local growth blowing and stocks tumbling around the world, we will talk said. ♪ ♪
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spot the -- on his brain. back on august 12 he announced liver surgery found cancer that spread to other parts of his body. still not clear where the cancer originated. at a news conference he said he will reduce work for the carter center dramatically. for a number of years i have planned on reducing the work at the center. we have not done it yet. when i wasbout this 80. again at 85. again when i was 90. time to carryt out those plans. mr. carter is 90 years old. the president's father, brother and two sisters all died of pancreatic cancer. his mother also has the disease. we have not think crude oil prices at these levels since the financial crisis.
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oil has lost a third of its value since june. earlier we talked about -- evaluation with john hofmeister, former president of shell oil. this government in particular, there is a strong desire to control the industry, as if the industry does not know what it is doing. ,or the past seven years or so this administration has been determined to tell the industry what it can and cannot do, when the industry really knows what to do. he said if it persists, we could see oil all to $32 per barrel. it has not been that low in almost seven years. returning 371 million dollars to shareholders after posting the strongest full-year earnings since alan joyce took the home in 2008. >> it is a very little america out there. oil prices moving. we do not give a range or forecast event the large
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elements that can take place. we believe with this transformation program that it can sustain and the performance of of the cost of capital through the cycle. matt: the new dreamliner's will be delivered in 2017. those are the top stories we're following for you. coming up in the next half hour, valley and agrees to buy sprout pharmaceutical for $1 million. a look at the deal after the fda libido drug.female a look at the growing tensions between north and south korea as the two sides trade fire along the border in the first major crash in five years. a slowdown in global growth is raging -- raising new questions about when the fed will raise interest rate. the possibility of an interest rate in september has dropped 36% based on the future. low inflation, falling oil prices and stronger dollar are
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among the factors the fed will consider. joining us is the chief economist at nomura securities international. i think the set minutes yesterday showed a little bit of doubt. previously i think the majority of economists agree the fed would raise rates in september. so many? marks by the july meeting that had not even witnessed the moves we have seen in august. >> sure, i think the fed had the you the economy would recover. i think what was clear if they have serious questions about that that need to be answered before they hike. we thought it was december before. matt: i think 80% of economists thought it would be in september. at any rate, do you still expected this year ago especially if we see asia continuing along the trajectory we do now? >> we do. i think we do have to look at the probability it will move partly into next year.
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i think based on the minutes you would have to increase probability there is no hike this year. earlier in the year we had what we thought was a winter slowdown. a lot of snow keeping shoppers out of stores and the economy suffered for that. it seemed to be temporary or seasonal, the issues, and does not look like we are picked up from there. >> we have picked up some. one was the appreciation of the dollar last year, and the other in the collapse of the oil sector. both of those are likely to wayne-. likely to- wane. in. there were three temporary effect of the timing is different. i think what is unclear at this point is whether or not the international risks will essentially give us a second leg. that is true for the oil story, too. matt: the fed stresses and janet
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yellen stresses she is dated the point -- data dependent. isn't there an need to get off of zero? no one wants to talk about with interest rates at zero? argueis a little where to can raise rates so you can lower them. i don't think they had the idea that they want to get off the road just to get off zero. what they really want is an economy that allows them to get off the rope. matt: what do you think we get as the and rate? where and when? >> i am pessimistic about that. i think it takes at least two.i think there are other reasons why the global savings investment balance cannot sustained higher rates. i do think this will be a much more interest rate adjustment cycle. matt: you expect to percent as we enter 2018? >> more or less.
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i think there's more downside risk then the upside. matt: what happens to rates on as. debt, government debt, we see the third country in asia devaluing the currency? global growth slowing? has seens me that gold a pretty great run the past couple of weeks amid the uncertainty. do you think the same thing will happen to u.s. debt, and does that push the yield down even further? >> we have come down a lot already. we are pushing 2%. i do not see it going further. i do think in some ways more or 12 over a six month month horizon to be higher, particularly if the fed does transition to raising rates. having said that, i think the upside is relatively limited. if there are more shocks, i cannot rule it out going to work , but i think most of that is behind us. --cannot rule it out going
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lower. matt: what do you think about a currency war, and are we going to see that? >> i grew up in a world where emerging markets rates were fixed. that was a problem. they were fixed until they broke. i think what we're seeing now is what we are supposed to see is when there are shocks, the exchange rate adjusts. i am not worried about a currency war per se. there are trade issues, and that gets to be political, and there are things to watch. i think mostly what we are seeing is economies reacting to circumstances. in an environment where we are talking about inflation, to seek gold prices go up is a complicated story. how: it lags with so much uncertainty there is. worry about the currency
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market. the bans have been loosened in other places. wouldn't we be better off if they were all three floating? >> there is no black and white here. these financial systems have full abilities in their own way. i think countries are reasonable into this. if you think about a country like china, it is clearly committed to opening up. one of the less trees -- lessons do a big bang you open, that seems to mitigate risk. i think people are being reasonable to leg into those ins that of all at once. matt: do you think they are playing catch-up? no one is trying to get an advantage. >> i think they are all responding to the circumstances they feel. a country like cause expand very link to china on the one hand but oil prices on the other.
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-- a country like kazakhstan. them very reasonable for to want stability. obviously this can go too far. there has been a lot of financial expansion on the economies that can create risk as well. there are risks out there. what we seeing is a change in response to economic stability. matt: bringing it. it.- bringing oh, how closely are they watching these events and how does it matter? banks arecentral involved in a qe. the asian world is evaluating its currencies. is it the right time for us to raise interest rates? >> obviously the fed has to look at a number of things. to give you a sense of the numbers, the dollar has appreciated 15% between june of last year and march of last year. since march, it is only up a
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couple of percent. the downfall of march has come up since june. in some ways they have to judge that and how that is affecting the outlook. there is no question one of the crucial issues is how is what is going on in the rest of the world affecting growth? the fed will have to make important judges about that. i do not think it precludes them from getting the interest rate adjustment right. that.i really appreciate i learned a lot today. great to have someone thoughtful giving clear explanations of what is going on. in athens, greek prime minister about tsipras speaking the snap elections he will host next month, saying greece has had difficult times and determined to honor the bailout agreement. obviously the party has issues with that. aat is why expecting to get
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matt: welcome back to the bloomberg "market day." i am at miller. a check of the markets with julie hyman. a rough day, rough week for global markets, and today seems to be the worst of them. julie: the volume off as well. we have been talking about august, summer, a lot of people away. volume 20% above the 10 day average. as we have the selling going on. the dow down 242. the two day and three-day
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selloff we are seeing is particularly steep. on fouret we have been major averages on concern for global growth. taking a look at the year to date performance of the major averages. the nasdaq the only one that remains in the green. .he s&p dipping into the red the dow down 4% on the year. another level is the 200 day moving average. you can see that on the bloomberg terminal. this is a level technicians watch, a momentum indicator. month agoelow it a and bounced pretty quickly back up. we have bounced back more significantly in terms of the points below the 200 day moving average. if you look at the s&p 500, seeing a lot of red, except for utilities, which are rising. a lot of the cyclical group
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sensitive to the concerns about the global economy. discretionary technology, financials and the large cap falling within the s&p 500. at last check around 75 of the s&p 500 stock were higher. the rest of them will work. lower. we are seeing finding in the in they market -- buying treasury market. global growth concerns are pushing down yields. field on the 10 year 2.09%, the lowest since april 30. gold up about 6%. rising once again. this is the best one day performance since late april. the risk aversion, people looking for what they perceive as safety, one of the beneficiaries goal. with the disclaimer that gold is down quite a lot still.
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just think the bounce off the bottom. matt: always fun to talk about. to maked is down, easy fun of. when it is up and strong, take it very seriously. guess that is true. a manifestation of market sentiment. matt: absolutely. thank you for that. top stories crossing the terminal at this hour, including our main focus right now. read prime minister alexis tsipras speaking in a nationally televised address. these are light shots of hymns eking the major headline is that he will ask for snap elections to be held september 20 as part of the process, and that he is tendering his resignation to the president. he will step down as prime minister. some of the other headlines, he there will be struggles ahead of them, and greece is determined to honor
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the bailout agreement. maybe a little bit at on's with him stepping down. he hopes to stay in power after the snap elections. we hope to bring you more on this as we get it. -- receivedresearch the first payment and made the payments that were due the ecb and imf today. discover card is becoming far more important. for the first time credit card users rate discovered higher then american express. amex number one since they started the survey nine years ago. only recently have they been body slammed by problems like co.akup with cost and jetblue. me.: scarlet fu joining
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the digital age and with many magazines struggling to stay alive, can a september issue maintain its cachet? scarlet came here to tell us how important september is or magazines, and what will happen is many get thinner and thinner. scarlet: especially the summer issues. thatmber issue is the one matters the most. the big moneymaker. they are talked for love page as where you have to open them up. every year we take stock of how many pages of advertisements these magazines have. le" said they published the biggest magazine ever. even for a magazine struggling, and there is speculation and reports that they may have to shut down or merge it with " allure" september is still the time when they make money.
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matt: do people still buy these magazines? it strikes me that "elle" and "vogue" are picture books. scarlet: very thoughtfully put together advertisements. matt: to your point, you can see all of these advertisements on the internet. they have nice covers. scarlet: the ad pages increase. the new york times style increased. good demographics. them at the airport. people of a certain generation, u.n. me. everyone younger is looking on the ipad. a lot of them go to the website and you can get the story on its own. you do not have to scroll through each page of the magazine. nonetheless, that is why you have all of these magazine editors looking into this. e driving along the
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newsstandre, a moving and handing out free giveaways like beauty samples and trips to cancun and trying to get people excited to buy the issue at the newsstand. matt: i wish they would drive around the cycle world, driver world. magazine.of those they have gotten razor thin as well. there is almost no content left in them, and i do not know where it is going. you are the resident office celebrity gossip x art. scarlet: did you hear about brian austin green and megan fox? matt: he was dating megan fox? scarlet: he was married to her. matt: super hot from transformers? scarlet: yes. vogue" and taylor swift on " vanity fair."
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the on-site has chosen to become less gregarious -- beyonce has chosen to be less gregarious with the press. she does not have an article in this issue as well. not: maybe she just does feel like it. she is super rich as it is. why bother yourself? i would just chill if i were her. she is a mom, she is married. she is enough places to hang out, and the people are ready. she will join me in just a minute. we have a lot to cover today. stocks obviously moving down around the globe for the third straight day. we see losses here in the u.s. and more than 200 points on the dow jones industrial average. ♪ ♪
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matt: welcome back to the i amberg "market day." matt miller. deutsche bank may be getting rid of the 19 member executive committee. the co-ceo trying to boost capital and shore of profits as banke's biggest investment contends with mounting litigation cost and a slump in dutch -- that training. michael moore who covers the bank to explain how significant this change is. getting rid of the executive committee, how big of a deal is that? i think it is emblematic of more change to come. they have a management committee and executive committee. it gets a little bit bloated. matt: and they have a board as well. . rights. a i think they want to streamline things and only have the more people in that room.
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a lot of times you are adding the people to the committees as a way of promoting them and making them feel important, but i think they want to streamline things. matt: i can understand it lowers cost to get rid of them. how much does it help the goal of boosting capital? michael: i think it perhaps makes decisions easier. . building capital will take some time. that will be a multiyear process for them, and it may mean reshaping their strategy a little bit, reshaping what businesses they are in. that will take some real decisions. gekkohow do they look now a lot of times when you get rid of the ceo you will find receipts in the drawer. how has he done taken over? it is still very early
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on. the first half was very good. there has been a lot of talk about them scaling back in fixed income, but they had a pretty good first half. they were up year-over-year. most people were down. that's may make get a little bit tougher decision. they talk about bringing the capital needs in the business down. that probably is going to continue. m thank you for joining us. michael moore, bank reporter. coming up, insight on the race for the white house from mary matalin full who served under president ronald reagan and campaign director for george h.w. bush. very excitingthat is at 5:00 p.m. ♪ ♪
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market day. matt: we are watching headlines for you out of greece. scarlet: clash along the korean border. the most serious exchange of artillery fire in five years. we look at impact at the region. president john hofmeister weighs in on where oil will go. good afternoon. i am matt miller, here with scarlet fu. scarlet: let's look at the markets. it is a down day across the globe when you look at equities. the dow off by 217 point, off the session lows. that was about an hour ago. in the s&p 500, nine out of 10 groups
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