tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 20, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT
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♪ alix: u.s. stocks closing of the lowest level since march. the selloff in emerging markets. joe: but the question is what'd you miss? more turmoil in emerging markets. when will it end? eyes on september. the bold prediction the fed will still raise rates next month. we take a look at those odds. joe: americans are moving south again. we have three charts you don't want to miss. alix: we have to begin with stocks. a brutal day in the streets for the markets. we really accelerated and the close.
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the s&p 500 off by two point 5%. the worst fall for the s&p 500 in two months. for nasdaq, water months. -- four months. joe: a lot of pain in those media stocks getting hammered a couple weeks ago after a downgrade. pain across the board. nasdaq fell the most in four months. netflix got slammed. a truly ugly day. alix: the guys holding up the market like the media stocks, amazon, google come are the ones rolling over. netflix took a straight dive down to the 50 day moving average at 106. you have the media stocks approaching this territory. joe: those are some of the ugliest charts in the world. there are people worrying about their business models. you cannot just look at them. today was a cell everything kind of day. alix: the s&p 500 closed below its 200 day moving average. it flirted with that all day.
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finally, closed low it. it sort of straight line down. joe: people are buying gold again today. it was one of those days where people buy some rocks. alix: you hate gold. i will take a deep dive in my bloomberg terminal and take a look at the breadth market. this is the percentage of stocks on the new york stock exchange doing well, closing above their 200 day moving average. as you can see -- can you? i don't know. it is slowly falling. falling at 40%. a few months ago, up to 60. the good stocks are doing less good. joe: they are just disappearing. i want to take a look at my terminal. we spoke about the emerging
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markets. the big story overnight, kazakhstan decided to completely of the currency, causing it to crumble 20%. this yellow line is the tanguay against the dollar. it felt to hundred 50 against the dollar. yesterday, 200. they let it float. is ae flipside, this minerals company surging over 15% in the last couple days. it is evaluating to make exporters more competitive. this company is just an example of a company that exports from kazakhstan. alix: it makes sense why ecb ripple through. -- it makes sense why you see the ripple through. it has those ripple effects. joe: everyone is wondering who
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is next. try to still exports from other countries. alix: commodities did not selloff today. energy and materials have been leading the way in terms of the selloff. we will take a look at the corrections we have seen since 2012. that was about 13%. this selloff was 17%. this one was 16%. industrial metal so far, 20%. if we see industrial metals bounce? , what is i do for stocks? maybe it is not that bad. we had a massive cell love in global markets -- a massive
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sellout in global markets. thank you for being here. kevin, what did you make of the selloff? kevin: what i see around the that believecally systems going to die. the major belief system around the world was that central banks were printing tons of money and you should go play in exotic places with your investment dollars. that. is coming unhinged. the u.s. is going to be the beneficiary of it but you have to get through the waves first. today'sly, how that was
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selloff? kelly: one of the worst days of the year. we saw all 10 major groups on the s&p 500 declined. some of the biggest losers today or stocks that had been the biggest winners at the bull market -- netflix, amazon, apple. fang economy. the biggest stocks that have gained the most. seeing that sentiment cannot look well for stocks. it is not traders saying this one pocket of the market isn't doing well like energy. sell i want to get out and my biggest winners. it doesn't bode well in the short term. alix: salesforce earnings are out. we want to get julie. what can you tell us about the numbers? julie: revenue rose by 24% and it came in a little ahead of what analysts anticipated.
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the company is giving some forecast as well. revenue growth for the third quarter of 23%. a fiscal year revenue growth of 16%. the company also talking about earnings-per-share of the year cents -- $.72. the core business in that type of software has been waiting to some extent. the company has been introducing new markets. it is also been trying to pull in some larger customers. that does seem to be working as evidenced by these numbers. the shares up about 14% year to date.
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initially, they pulled back in reaction to these numbers and they are going through a little change. investors trying to figure out what to make of this. i am going to keep looking at these numbers. we will mention one more we just got. unrealized for revenue. billings up 19.8%. the estimate was for a gain of 17.5%. a pretty strong number there but we will keep going in the numbers and bring you an update. alix: thank you. kevin, when you take a look at the market and you see the ,tocks like netflix, google amazon selling off. what is left to prop up stocks? kevin: a great question. i don't know if they need to be propped up but the sales force on the west coast is a prime example. the type of a will that is
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created by companies like that here is causing quite a frothy market but it is not indicative of the country as a whole. that is the little pockets of things the fed has to deal with. given the newsdd you guys were talking -- the primary conversation everyone is talking about is whether the fed should raise rates or not. it is hard to believe that is even a topic. joe: you follow the options market for the what are options traders doing? alix: coming back from vacation. kelly: or staying on vacation. they are running into protection on the single stocks and major equity industries. callw i looked at the put volume ratio and it was at the highest ratio in three years. options traders noticed this and they say i want to protect what i have gained so far.
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there is some panic in the options market. not much of the financial crisis, which is good. but there is a little bit of panic. alix: you can kind of see that in gold, the treasury market. do you think we will continue to see a rotation into the safety trades? kevin: i would like to take advantage of the fact they are not going the other way and maybe look for something in the -- and look for something in the equity market. i think people should avoid jumping in on this idea. the thing i have seen a new market now for over a year is it is quite resilient. these are things that used to year ago.little as a i like the flexibility in the market, the resiliency. encouraged from a system standpoint that we are
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has stolen every year since it went public and 2011 was not terrible for copper. joe: baby when they write the history of this, they say that is how we knew. some really big damage done to the company. alix: despite the fact it is putting out money to pay dividends to investors. julie hyman is that the breaking news desk with headlines from hewlett-packard. the hewlett-packard forecast looks to be a little short. it is going to be splitting up as well. one business will offer technology and services to business, the other will be consumer facing. the fiscal fourth-quarter forecast is the one falling short. the company for the year brought up the lower end of its forecast for earnings. coming out in beating analyst estimates.
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they have been working to revamp the company and try to bring back sales. a profit of $.64 a share. the're closing out 175 of gap stores. joe: the greased prime minister announced his resignation, clearing the way for an election. he said the greek people need to deliver a new mandate. he is facing rebellion and his own party for agreeing to austerity measures in exchange for $96 billion. not name a date for the election but government officials told bloomberg the vote could be held september 20. alix: the markets got it wrong. the fed will still hike in september. that is according to citigroup. we take a look at what they have to say. it will take a bunker buster to stop the fed from moving in september. an event would have to be
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systematically important and global." for more, i want to bring back kevin. at?t do you say to th kevin: it is able to call. -- a bold call. within the corridor up is an interesting thing -- moving the court are up is an interesting thing. i think it is bold. in reality, they don't know. people that say they know are really putting themselves out there because every indication from the fed is this is a tough decision for them in the real question is why are they talking about the rate? we are not going back to rate targeting for a long time.
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rule.ou have the kevin can you explain what it is and what it is the fed should be doing now? kevin: it is better than the taylor rule. our model says the neutral rate, the rate at which the fed is neither accommodative nor restrictive is right about 25. the longer they stay and keep the effective rate around 12, they are helping. for the extent they're supposed to raise the rate, i think that is the question. what i tried it stress -- try to stress to people is that we shouldn't even be talking about targeting the rate.
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the row question for the fed is if they moved it up, they would be on a major job on the campaign to say we are going to sit here for a long time. wex: this comes a point when ask our guest what keeps you up at night. kevin: it is funny. the one thing i wrote down in my notes was if the value of attendees starts -- the 10 d -- tanguay keeps me up at night, it is time to throw in the towel. --are still slipping pretty sleeping pretty easy in one country. joe: thank you. alix: when we come back, today, this city became the first to file for bankruptcy since detroit did two years ago. what city is it? ♪
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alix: before the break, we asked which city filed the first bankruptcy since detroit in 2012? hillview, kentucky. everyone saw that coming. facing a lawsuit. a demographic shift in migration patterns reveal a lot about a country's economic picture. today, we're looking at america. connor is the portfolio manager at new river investments. alix: thank you for joining us. connor: thank you. alix: where are people migrating to most? connor allen we see the reemergence -- connor: we see
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the reemergence of las vegas and florida. weaddition to the houses have to build, we also need to build the infrastructure to support them. in states like georgia this year, republicans found ways to raise taxes. we need more and more construction and entry-level labor. -- you may softening see some softening on the immigration. joe: we talking about migration their 30's.n what does this tell you? connor: the question is when people move into their 30's, where are they going to go? first we see the sun belt but the big area to watch is in colorado and the pacific northwest.
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whereas baby boomers move from the midwest of the sunbelt, for millennials, easy migration patterns as people leave california and go to places like denver and portland and seattle. alix: what kind of pocket books he millennials come with whether graduate? joe: right now, they are still pretty young and they have been set that by the recession. the question is at one point in the traditionally moving to the suburbs? alix: what kind of boom will they see at some point? connor: we can believe over the next 10-15 years, we will see a aroundsecular tailwind singular secular family housing. there's something
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surprising here which is that the acceleration and household formations is happening at the older end of the demographics. what does this tell you? connor: everyone talks about millennials forming households but really the growth is from other out. . 64 year olds are turning 65 and moving into an age bucket that has been historically quite small. joe: we have talked about the demographics but you are managing a portfolio. what do you make of what has been going on? has anything changed from your perspective? connor alone the real stumbling block for us is in oil. has been asissue oil falls, people that on lower interest rates and anything that
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benefits from higher interest rates. if thestion is underlying strength we see in the housing and labor market can offset the weakness we have seen and commodities that we are optimistic. alix: shouldn't it be a good thing for the demographics you study? cheaper oil, more money to spend and move. connor: we believe it is. the issue is other things like commodities and airfare at the lowest one-month drop in several years. there are other commodity leaks in core commodity areas. alix: apparently we need to move. joe: can we move the show to atlanta? alix: thank you so much. joe: we will be right back. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. what'd you miss? alix: this is the one thing you need to pay attention to -- inventory. inventories rising around 85, that is how many days it takes to raise the stock. it is down quarter by quarter. it is down but elevated. joe: a great read on the agricultural economy. another thing you don't want to miss tomorrow. earlier this week, the manufacturing report. fed -- philly fed.
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>> hewlett-packard takes>> a hit. what to expect when the business splits later this year. matt: i'm matt miller for emily chang in this is "bloomberg west." salesforce boost its profit forecast and elon musk hyperloop taking two steps closer to becoming a reality. we take you to the world's first solar powered airport. all of that and more on "bloomberg west."
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