tv On the Move Bloomberg August 21, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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that's what we are watching today -- european markets are just opening, futures indicating another decline. the global stock market is on track for the biggest loss since 2015. over $2 trillion have been wiped off the value of global stocks in the last four days. here's caroline, good morning. caroline: good morning. $.5 trillion erased just yesterday on the s&p 500. the hemorrhaging was happening in the united states with another day of declines in europe. 1.5% lower if you are looking at france. one key fact was the dax. not one single stock rose -- everything closed in the red -- the perfect storm brewing here in europe, wins coming in from asia. -- winds coming in from asia.
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next, and you also have the federal reserve hike, people worrying about that. greece -- that snap election is being called by alexis tsipras. will that cause more instability? equities -- we are on the track for the worst week since 2015 in global stocks. we are in correction territory. you were looking at your screen's now at manufacturing, falling to 48.6. this is worse than expected -- french manufacturing is not recovering. german data is coming out later. but that french number is not looking good. gold has been rallying, up .5%. we are on track and goal for the biggest weekly up since january.
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oil is continuing its selloff -- eight weeks we have seen the selloff in oil, the longest losing streak since 1986, almost two decades. we are at $40 at the moment. let's look at how the euro is reacting to that french number. valuellar has been losing as people recalibrate their bets on whether we will see a fed rate reserve hike. many think it will be postponed until december. but weo is currently up are reacting to the french manufacturing data you see on your screen. we are still very much in contraction territory. we will see the flight in terms of the bond markets. money going into germany at the moment, borrowing up, money going into the united kingdom, money coming out of greece. is,ink what the worry everything is a contingent. -- contagian.
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we saw a similar thing happen in spain and we could see snap elections. two-year, less contagion in italy but borrowing costs on the rise, up 10 basis points. mark, this is a torrid and to what has been a brutal week. mark: in the french data, caroline, thanks a lot, it's not cheery. shrinking for a second month in august. business index, which is an amalgam of the manufacturing and services index, dropped to a four-month low of 51.3 from 51.5. the services measure also fell, the factory gauge dropping further below the 50 level, which divides expansion from contraction. this number, the latest setback from the french economy. it stagnated in the second
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quarter, and it marks the first time in the year the gdp failed to increase, contrasting with the performance in germany, where growth accelerated. that economy expanded .3%. that is the data out of france. pmi data out of germany in 30 minutes, out of the eurozone at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. we also got pmi data out of china today. it missed estimates. juliette is in hong kong. juliette: good morning, mark. not a great day in asia. i will start with this picture because it sums up the red we saw. this is the asia-pacific index -- it is at its worst weekly loss since 2011 and stocks are holding at their lowest level since february, 2014. you can see every sector on the asia-pacific index in the red. we are closing up in china,
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flirting close to that 35000 poi level, whichnt means government intervention. the shanghai composite is down 4.2%,%, -- down officially entering bear market territory. they close down by more than 2%. taiwan is off by 3%. three markets in asia are now in bear market territory. the south korean index, to added to the woes, is having his worst close in two years. all the equity selling that we have seen globally, the weaker oil price, and the tension between the north and the south. in japan, a terrible day for the nikkei 225. only one stock closed higher, 3% loss in japan, australian down by 1.4%. i want have a look at the shanghai composite just to see
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where we are at. we have been getting very close 0 point level, the new resistance level, and we will probably close a slightly above it as we close off in the stocks. mark: thanks a lot. today, china stocks are wiping out gains spurred by an unprecedented government campaign to prop up prices. the shanghai composite is ing below that key number where the government intervened in the past -- let's bring in richard frost from hong kong. richard, good to see you. do they intervene again today? will they have to capitulate to the markets are not? richard: yeah. direction and i can't imagine them capitulating entirely. there's no doubt that there is a bit of the title, -- a bit of a battle. we saw some pretty sharp moves, it almost close below it
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before rebounding. it was a bad day all in all for cruciallyn 4.3%, and erasing what had been an 18% rally off the lows we saw in july. we think of all the stimulus in terms of buying power they have amassed to shore up that stock market -- that has now evaporated. the concern is with the economy looking bleaker, this is the what morek at august, can the government do to try and keep this market going? but for now, it is holding the line of 3500 and maybe they can earn themselves a well rested weekend. mark: richard, the news flow out of china continues to be grin. -- be grim. what does it mean for china? what does it mean for policy
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going forward? shows iswell, what it that all the stimulus they threw at the economy so far in terms of number of interest rate cuts, reserve ratio cuts, state directed lending, has failed to do much in terms of china's support of sacking economy. there was a bit of a boost in the second quarter in gdp, but that was thanks to the sharp rally in the stock market that lifted financial activity. you can therefore see why they are trying to keep that stock market going, but what we are seeing is the wealthiest investors moving, a few investors going. they can't rely on the stock market anymore. what they could do is cut the reserve ratios by even more, but the question is whether that is really going to work, given has as it hasn't in the past.
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this makes play why they took this drastic step in devaluing their currency. they are trying to keep that currency level, but will they need to do more to try and boost that economy? at the moment, the outlook is certainly deteriorating compared to what was previously. mark: richard, good to chat to you. richard frost in hong kong. juliet, it's a hard time if you are an equity investor -- what is your view like? juliet: it definitely is hard hat time. what we are seeing in china is very interesting. clearly, the authorities are trying to do what they can to deflate the bubble that we have seen in the market, in spite of the falls we have seen in shanghai. markets are still up well over 50%, 60% over the last year.
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but interestingly, we don't have the same level of participation in the stock market in china that we do in the west, in particular in the u.s., so it's not going to have that sort of knock on effect. wantuthorities very much to move the economy from being an export led economy to one that is more domestically driven, more domestic demand, and that is why i think we see the reserve rate cuts. we are not anticipating that they are going to be very much more, because that is going to really not help them get to where the -- mark: china's continuing to prop up the stock market, and the worry is once they stop it will go into freefall. either way, is there a ray of light when it comes to china in the interim, from your perspective? juliet: from a european
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investors, from the european stock market point of view, i guess china has been responsible for a lot of the growth that we have seen in europe over the last quite a few years. responsible for something of the order of maybe 9% of listed european companie'' revenues. china, probably for another over 20%. this is clearly going to have quite a significant impact for the market as a whole. mark: what stage, then, do you look at the auto industry? they are down 20% from those highs. start stage do you thinking -- there is some value here, in miners, autos? juliet: in many of these sectors, we think that probably
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the corrections are overdone. those numbers i quoted earlier for the market has a whole, that is very much distorted by the commodity complex. if one looks at commodities, that figure for china is probably halved. as you say, it's luxury, autos -- mark: you think the correction is overdone in those sorts of stocks? what about in the headline benchmark? the injured correction territory, joining eight other western european forces that had fallen 10%. can you see further declines from here? how low can these indices go? juliet: yes, it is certainly possible. decline, givene the increase of volatility that we are going to have now with this snap election being called in greece. we believe, though, that we are
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pretty near to the bottom here. as far as greece is concerned, all we have here is the calling -- basically -- mark: snap elections. resignings, tsipras means that he is basically seeking a mandate to push through these reforms. you remember that he was elected on an anti-austerity mandate, and he is now proposing probably more austerity. i will get back to greece in a second. thanks, juliet, for joining us. a quick check on equity markets. european stocks on track for another week of decline, all four major indices in the red. stocks, onor global track for its worst weekly decline and the emerging markets stocks sunk to their lowest since 2000. juliet stays with us. coming up, sippers quits. -- tsipras quits.
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mark: this is "on the move." let's bring you up to speed. a gauge of manufacturing in china slowed to the lowest level in more than six years. the pulmonary pmi reading came in at 47.1 for august, missing estimates. france's pmi also missed estimates. german figures are coming out and 13 minutes. global stocks headed for their worst week of the year. china and the shanghai composite closed down or .2 percent after the s&p 500 suffered its heaviest selloff in 18 months. meanwhile, wpi is heading for its weakest streak since 1986. into twitter shares are dropping below their $26 additional public offering price, down more peak after itits began trading. executive saysef
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he will take time to reverse a slowdown in user growth. the greek prime minister alexis tsipras announced he will step down in order for a snap election to be called. greeks, ladies and gentlemen, now that this difficult cycle has come to an end, an unlikely unusual attitude of those who consider themselves entitled to keep their positions, their seats, their office, regardless of the conditions and circumstances, i feel the deep moral and political obligation to put your judgment everything i did. the rights and the mistakes, the successes and failures. is why i decided and will soon go to the president of the public to submit the resignation and the resignation of the government. mark: let's go over to tom mackenzie, who is joining us in athens good morning, tom. tom: good morning, mark. the dice by of
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alexis tsipras -- it wasn't entirely expected. it was somewhat forced. he refused to back the third bailout. cyprus will be hoping he comes out of this fairly strong that she is hoping that earlier elections and his popularity will translate into votes, and a strong mandate to push through the bailout. of course, there is a risk and added uncertainty. i'mto get more on this, happy to say that i am joined by greece's labor minister and minister of the social stability. george, minister, thank you very much. what is the right move by alexis tsipras? >> it's a good idea to ask the people what they want. on top of that, we should have a very strong political mandate. implementation -- tom: tell me about the cabinet,
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ministers. . where they informed about the decision or does it come as a surprise? >> it is not a surprise. the prime minister asked us what he thinks about this and all of us have said that we must go to them. >> how important was it for you in the cabinet to get the support that we heard from the likes of angela merkel and the european commission? >> we worked together with our european partners in implementing the agreement. of course,ferences, a political status, but we believe strongly that this is not a greek issue, it is the european one. that is why our premise are sent a letter to the european parliament in order to european eyes the discussion. tom: telling the discussion about what economic impact this will have. the economy here is still constrained by capital control. a lot of pressure already and now we have uncertainty ahead of us. >> i think we would like to have
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a strong government, with conditions for economic stability. i mentioned alexis tsipras remains popular, according to the latest polls. but in the last election in january he won over a lot of votes with the new democracy. now we are seeing possibly a resurgent new democracy going through new leadership that they can get their act together. platform,ave the left that can break away to some degree. it will pose a challenge. >> i think we have two dividing lines. there is another one that separates us from the old establishment. they are after political leaders. the greek electorate is going to -- that explains the strong popularity. tom: and that is despite the
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u-turns, going back on the original mandate? >> we are not making a u-turn. we are obliged to make a forced compromise. trying to come to the balance, that exists within. we have developed a measures. tom: minister, talk us through some of those reform processes. you mentioned that there will be an ongoing discussion. how is that going to look? what kind of shape is that going to take as we lead up to that all-important october? it is not an contained in the other side. portfolio,e, on my we are obliged to legislate according to the first european practice. othersre associated -- haveve -- that is why we
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for the committee of the european parliament to oversee the discussion, because we have a strong feeling that it is not a greek issue. it concerns everybody in europe. this is, in a way, the mirror of the future of europe. tom: talking about labor issues, you have the forms, the taxes that will start, particularly those very unpopular property taxes. it's important to you and the prime minister that these elections happen quickly so that you can get that mandate before the pain kicks in. >> people are not idiots. they know the context for the agreement. this taxntioned, burden -- it is one of the measures that we would avoid. the greek electorate should know that it exists within the agreement.
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will they continue to support us? tom: a quick one about the party and the split that we have seen -- what is the new cabinet going to look like, it tsipras gets the mandate? >> as it looks now, we have lost a few key members of the. -- of the cabinet. tom: and that split hasn't completely damaged, eroded the original purpose of the party? >> no, quite the opposite. that it came for the t i think we are going to keep our character as a party for the social character of europe. tom: minister, thank you very much. that's greece's minister for labour, laying out what some of the future might hold and how the political machinations might unfold. mark, back to you. mark: thanks a lot.
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let's get back to juliet cohn. do you see this as another layer of uncertainty on top of all the others? we've already talked about china and emerging markets. yes, butn some senses, more i think it means we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel here. yes, we have uncertainty over the next month. can be reelected with a strong mandate so that he can push through the austerity that the eu has asked for, if we can see the reform of the labor markets we can see tax being collected more effectively than what's going to put gree on the road to recovery. i think that is going to be positive for investment in europe. investors troubling -- when will the fed raise rates?
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have things changed since china devalued its currency? juliet: i think the changes that rate rise people were anticipating might be next month or will be pushed further out, either to the end of the year -- mark: what does that mean for us equity investors question mark is a good thing? juliet: you have become addicted to quantitative easing and i guess this is further proof as to how much we do need it. mark: good to see you, thanks for sticking around. juliet cohn. she is saying goodbye to us -- i'm not. next, the german pmi data. france missed estimates and we will bring you the numbers. this is what's happening today with me on twitter, @mar kbartontv. what a week it has been. the stoxx 600 is on worst for its worst weekly decline of the year. t 40.'s the dax, the cap
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mark: welcome back to "on the move." item mark barton. -- i'm mark barton. let's see how things are shaping up. stocks are on track for their 2015. weekly slide in tourname t where is money moving? we know asian markets have been sliding, we know asian currencies have been sliding. the euro though is up today against the dollar. the yields on the german tenure is continuing to decline -- look at oil. eight weeks of decline. that hasn't happened since before i was born, in 1986. yes, i'm lying.
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let's talk about german pmi data, just crossing. it looks as if manufacturing has risen, and it has increased. elliott, break down the figures. number --e have a 53.2 and anything above 50 indicates expansion. they really knocks that one out of the courts. in terms of expansion, it is not quite as robust as economists had expected, just missing by a 10th of 1%. the interesting to see contrast between the german figures and the french figures, because french manufacturing is thinking at a faster pace than economists had been expecting, and services are also shrinking. inmany is still clinging, terms of these figures, without
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any pronounced slowdown over the last few weeks, but certainly we do see germany doing well in terms of manufacturing. france still doesn't seem to be able to break out of this funk. mark: we also had data on consumer confidence out of germany earlier. what was the take away? elliott: it was marginally lower than expected, but still close to a record high. german businesses seem to be doing well, in these figures are ande out more in the gdp, we see that the german economy is doing a lot better than much of the rest of the eurozone. we will be getting overall figures in terms of consumer confidence and in terms of pmi numbers a little bit later on. in one sense, you would expect the overall picture of the eurozone to be that much isier given that the euro
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down 15% over the last 12 months against the u.s. dollar. that should be boosting exporters not just in germany but across the eurozone. you have stimulus from the ecb, and you have those oil prices you are just talking about, which should be putting more money into consumers' pockets. but in some countries, france being a prime example, that doesn't seem to be happening. mark: thanks a lot. let's bring in our guest to talk about what's happening, the european economist at schroders investment management. good morning. on the german data side, things are encouraging. on the fresh data side, not so much. >> absolutely. we have known for a while that manufacturing is far more competitive. we know that they are still exporting to the right places despite the weakness in china. what's been slightly puzzling is the official data -- it has been -- a veryt weaker poor quarter for manufacturing
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overall, but the pmi has held up and given a much more optimistic signal. is this going to be the start of a rebound now in the official data going into the third quarter, or is the pmi still a little -- mark: what do you think? is it the start of a rebound going into the third quarter? azad: i think there are some signs of a rebound. it is weak, but it's week across the world. we saw in the u.s., the u.k. it is going right across to the emerging markets. mark: in europe whether what we are witnessing right now today, in emerging markets? azad: i think so. most of the strength coming out of europe is domestic demand. it's much better than expected. consumer confidence numbers were out recently. retail sales really saved the german economy in the second quarter. i don't see why that needs to reverse. they are coming to the end of austerity in europe. interest rates are at record lows and they would like it to
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remain at record lows for quite a long time. there is plenty of support for the domestic economy. mark: and that takes a question -- for how long, and what should the ecb do? there is talk of extending the duration, broadening the scope of qe. what could and should happen? azad: for now, i think they will maintain the current pace of purchases. they are aware that the amount they are buying is very significant for the price of the market, so it's already having quite a big impact. there are still low impacts on government bond. from that perspective, it seems to be working. with interesting is that the euro has stopped behaving in a way that we normally expect. we are still seeing a little bit of strength out of the euro with worse news from the macro side. mark: is that a hazing thing? -- a haven thing? people sort of forget about the euro? azad: no, i think there has been
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a change in the behavior of the euro, because of how low interest rates are. the euro has become a funding currency. what we are seeing is as emerging-market currencies are selling off, they are having to close their short positions in europe. think about the way the japanese yen behaves. mark: does that mean we have seen the lows for the euro? they are coming down, 106, which is the forecast of the analysts we surveyed. does that mean that this parity talk is done? think there is another like down before the u.s. raises interest rates. see the we will interest rate differential between the dollar in the euro start to push the euro lower. mark: will this push down your rate forecast? azad: no, not at all. the data is still very supportive of a rate hike in
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september. really, the data has been good for a while now. we are really just looking for absolute confirmation that they need to start the cycle. mark: and you need confirmation on the inflation front -- where is that confirmation? how can you be confident that inflation will head back to that 2% target? azad: well, you look at the core inflation rates. wages are picking up, feeding through the prospect for service providers. they will have to pass that through. in the near term, headline representation will be very low, possibly below zero, but that's only because of oil prices. the like down in oil prices. the federal will wash out the data -- mark: there is deflationary talking china -- we can push it aside, can't we? azad: absolutely. our model suggests that even a large depreciation will only
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lead to very minor negative impacts on u.s. inflation. it just doesn't have a big enough impact to warrant holding rates where they are today. elections --e snap is this good? is this wiping the slate clean? does it mean that suppress can tsipras could get rid of the dissenters? azad: i'm not sure what his t legitimacy he has. builtole campaign was bi on anti-austerity perform. mark: thank you so much for joining us. have a look at our european stock market. i am dipping mitel into the stoxx 600, down by 4%, of the biggest weekly drop since 2014.
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entered indices correction territory, falling 10% from a record high. the dax is already in correction territory. have a look at the greek stock market after the snap election was called -- tsipras resigned, and it's down .84%. it's only the second week since the greek stock market reopened after five weeks of closures amidst that turbulent period for greece and its economy. bailout discussions are taking place. still to come, turbulence infects twitter. is down on its ipo price. we will talk about that. a perfect opportunity for me to bring up my twitter handle, @markbartontv. are you still a big fan of twitter? you better be -- how else will you contact me? what is on your mind?
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european and u.s. government bonds rising, but it is red, red, red. elliott? elliott: it is coming back a little bit off the opening was. it is going up to a $1 billion, --d as a cancer treatment, shares are down and companies across the border down. luxotica has been downgraded. it had a pretty good run over the last 12 months. the goldman sachs is downgrading saying it doesn't control enough of its own distribution. 50%, -- down 15%, the world's biggest independent oil storage company, and it is down after a set of earnings not impressing many people,
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including the decline in oil prices. mark: thanks, let's get to our top stories. alexis tsipras is announcing he will step down in order for a snap election to be called. tois likely to use the move shirk out naysayers and return to power in a more manageable coalition in parliament. could beicials say it held by september 20. manufacturing in china is the lowest in six years. the preliminary pmi reading came in at 47.1, missing estimates. french missed. roughly 14 or 15 minutes, global stocks are headed for their worst week. is shanghai composite closing down 4.2% after the s&p 500 suffered its biggest selloff in 18 months. meanwhile, wti headed for its biggest weekly streak of losses since 1986.
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turbulence and technology -- hp shares sink following earnings while twitter fell to its opening ipo price. high, caroline. caroline: let's start with a downward trajectory, on hewlett-packard. a rough rise in after our trading after missing analyst estimates. earnings are down 13%. sales weaken across the board, declining in the pc market in 12%icular, where its load in the previous quarter. but you are seeing it across the board. pc's, services, printers, software -- every part of hp's business was being rankled in the last quarter. chief executive saying it like it is, challenging macroeconomics, challenging i.t. spending environments. the key issue here is that difficult market environment is getting better anytime soon.
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several quarters to come, this environment will be difficult. remember, this is the last earnings from hewlett-packard before they split in november. they will be creating what business which is going to be hp, inc. they will also be splitting into hp enterprises, about the technology, the services they will be providing. bot are going to have weaknessesh. -- both are going to have weaknesses. and for hp enterprise you have technology and services trying to fight the conferenc competit. let's look, though, on the bright side. there is a new kid on the block which continues to outperform. this is a company that has disrupted the likes of ibm and hp by offering services via the internet. this is about you and i wanted to be able to access our work wherever we are, being able to
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interact myra communal network, being able to analyze data via tablet. , for thealesforce third time raising their forecast. they say sales will be $6.6 billion, up 4% in extended trading. they have sold off in the earlier market session. global expansion is where it's at -- it is tapping into new markets and bigger companies. but remember, this is a company that has potentially discussed joining forces. is it more of an appetizing company? lastly, your twitter question of the day. the selloff continues. we are now down below the share price. down two thirds from the previous peak. so much euphoria around twitter -- would it be the next facebook
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question mark the next social media giant? no. it would seem 360 million users -- it is potentially just journalists. where is the larger base of users? can they continue to expand? jack dorsey sparked off the significant selloff we have seen of late when they came up with their earnings. and founder,eo, saying it is difficult and it will take a long time to have a turnaround. certainly the share prices are affecting that. mark: thanks. the race to the bottom began amid a global currency war. are weaker currencies in china and russia, plunging prices for commodity exports and the prospect of higher the u.s. interest rate. who is next? , exploringvin serkin the top 10 emerging markets. who do you think is next? gavin: we have been assessed
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this week and last week with china. the latest manufacturing data you mentioned earlier -- more evidence that china is slowing. that is one big problem, then you have the u.s. raising interest rates, the collapse in oil prices, than russia, still a big economy, deepen recession. which companies are most exposed to all of that? egypt, nigeria, two countries which are done nothing with their exchange rates, kept unlocked. -- cap then walked. locked.them because extent, we saw this tajikistan. mark: why are some countries, gavin, resisting depreciation? gavin: sort of a weird race, isn't it? some countries are going all-out against it. this last week, the chief
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advisor to the president said that we think the lira plunging to three per dollar would make turkey competitive. but other countries are resisting that, and it's because -- when you have a currency depreciating a country like egypt and nigeria that are hugely reliant on imports for food and clothing, prices of imports go up and that's not very popular. mark: thanks. gavin serkin. up next, we will roughen up with emerging markets, global stocks, and oil. ♪
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mark: welcome back, i'm a mark barton in london. it has been a busy week for markets. these are the charts that matter. last week, we saw china's shocked evaluation, and it still wreaking havoc through the currency market. none has been hit harder than the cause asked on kenj -- then the kazakhstan kenj. world is falling for a third straight week -- the s&p 500 suffered its biggest selloff in 18 months. the ftse entered a correction -- a decline of 10% or more. and if you think that's bad,
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check out oil. wti has been touching fresh six-year lows, falling for yet another week, putting it on track for its weekly run of losses, which is its longest stretch of decline since before manus cranny was born in 1986. manus: i like that. mark: there is your complement of the day. manus: i should probably cherish it. now we have it on tape. mark: what have we got today? the charts are quite staggering -- the chickens have come home to roost in terms of what china is slowing. a fantastic article on the repercussions for oil in saudi arabia, the social and economic ramifications. those charts are only yet being understood. greece may not matter economically.
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it is all part of the big plan -- don't worry about it. if part of a construction. we will be speaking about greece, tsipras's chess move. if power corrupts and absolute power absolutely corrupts, there will be no dissent. i won't tolerate any dissents. mark: he said earlier that the point of syriza was di ssent. manus: call me old-fashioned but they aren't that rabid. then you get back to the idea of power corrupts. it is moot, not a subjective opinion. mark: syriza have now realized that. manus: we thought austerity -- we fought austerity and austerity won.
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economist forief the -- mark: a mixed bag. france's disappointing that germany -- manus: no real shock there. the ecb will have to go harder expectedo fight the arrival of deflation. i do like a michelin star. the we have got onl value of the michelin star -- do you want it? mark: three star manus cranny. and a couple of minutes, eurozone pmi numbers. we have the u.s. manufacturing data. area consumer confidence.
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manus: worldwide selloff. global stocks had for their worst week of the year, accelerated by the poorest chinese manufacturing data since the global financial crisis. siegrist quits. the greek prime minister says he is stepping down and calls for snap elections. can he ditched the dissenters? and, ready for war. kim jong-un orders his troops to be fully armed and prepared for combat after exchange of fire with south korea.
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