wiki leavy and jeffrey curry, emerging markets are causing janet yellen from september to december. good morning, everyone. interestingmost tom: global stock markets joined writing. the global commodity implosion. in this hour, jeffrey curry of i am tom keene. we will get to this. goldman sachs on lower for longer. is anybody in the office of prime minister in greece? emerging markets are overcoming by events and may force janet brendan: he has to and resigned yellen. his government in order to call a new election in --. , the greek people will bail him out. this is "bloomberg surveillance he is going to result government yuriko --." i am tom keene. and he is confident he can win the next election. joining me is brendan greeley. it very hard to understand if you're not in a elementary i thought greece was all fixed and fine. democracy. he upsets the applecart. this is a move of strength. brendan: in a way, you can look tom: i will go with that. at this as a move from a little bit of strength. we will get to that.

he is set within his own party. let's get to our top headlines. vonnie: thank you so much. if he dissolves the government and calls for new elections, he is taking a whip count and china's economy is rattling believes he can come back after local markets. the election with a stronger factories posted there worst mandate. been attempted before data since the financial crisis. and it has failed before. that's why he's in power now. chinese stocks have almost wiped vonnie: he is daring people. out gains from government primen: this is the rescue. they lost 5%. minister's way of dropping the europe is down as well and u.s. mike. tom: we've got earnings out on stocks are coming off their john deere. worst day in 18 months. we will look at that. vonnie: the third-quarter oil is heading for it a straight weekly drop. earnings estimate was 144 and greece, the prime minister a they came in at 153. use new elections to consolidate equipment sales were down 24%. power and get rid of consenting for fiscal 2015 are voices in his own party. he has been in office just a month. on an elected down. we spoke about that earlier on. anti-austerity form. let me see if there are other headlines. he got apparently need a lot.

itrd-quarter net comes in the honesti went to $511 million. worse for this with you. we did not achieve the deal we were hoping for. summer. we did not face the reaction we that is negative anyone. expected. what a stock performance on john we make concessions, but we deere recently. it is the outlier of american brought a deal. given the north -- negative manufacturing. correlations in europe, that was our top headlines begin with china. vonnie: one final point about the best one i could achieve. john deere, that was a reduction vonnie: greece could have for the full-year forecast. elections in september. rattlingconomy is president obama is trying to economies. the heavy weakest results since keep wavering democrats on his ride in the iran controversy. the financial crisis. markets foremerging their worst week in two years. the president urged a new york they lost 5%. congressman to back the planet. markets are falling in europe. the letter is directed to all members of his party. oil is headed for its eighth straight weekly decline. the united states will take military actions if i ran is not

promises. that is the longest losing streak in a decades. in australia, it was a record the primacy of greece is breaking bond sale for apple. stepping down and calling for new elections. dealis the biggest bond his been in office eight months. he was elected on an anti-austerity platform, but he for a non-financial firm in they called the people spending cuts had only sold bonds in the and tax increases was the only united states. way to get money. >> we did not get the deal we pilots and military police were hoping for. officers have become the first women to graduate from the we have made concessions, but we struck a deal that you we ranger school. will leaveduates inherited is the only one greek elections could their. only a few completed the nine week course. be held september 20 president those are your top headlines. that's an amazing story. obama is trying to keep democrats decided during the brendan: this has been a raging around problem. debate so long. the question is if they are held

the letter is directed to all to the same standards, should members of the party. u.s. could it take they be allowed? military action if iran does not keep its promises. they are going through infantry officers school and having the same standards of light to them. tom: let's go to the market this raised $1.6 billion morning. i want to use the data screen. in australia. the bond yield is the biggest ever. until last november, apple only futures are continuing the tone of yesterday afternoon. sold on's in the united states. oil is fragile. the yield crunches in down to two point. onto the second screen, the next two women smash a barrier with is elevated. the strength of their willpower. they're the first women to loved 17,000. graduate from the army's ranger school. the german bond is lower yield they proved themselves to be the through the week. equal of men. there was little sleep and calls special third data for constant hiking. they will receive the ranger patch today at fort benning in screen, we have currencies. this is stronger, against the georgia. i want to go back to apple. i find it remarkable what they depreciation that the chinese would like. mexico is in freefall. do.

it immediately popped to a ae ruble we will get to in premium and the yield in the second, it's just a mess. australian dollar is 1.48%. apple is three dollars from a applicant meant money anywhere bear market, down 18%. they want. brendan: this is still a tax play. bloombergo the they have the cash. tom: i think they are just terminal and look at vladimir putin's nightmare. somebody e-mailed and said does testing the market. let's look at the data charts. your might work? it's real. there is a deterioration. 1998, ruble crude does not get to a 39 depreciation. handle. then we go through some stability and good oil markets. we need to get you up to date. we be given with the global slide across all assets. you are only halfway to where we were. decree: they signed a jeffrey curry is head of local commodities research at goldman sachs area michael regan will join us from bloomberg news. allowing refinancing for companies that are in trouble. what you expect to see? they are priming a mechanism to michael: the futures are weakening. help companies. banks andgoes to the it looks like a week open. that would not surprise me after what happened.

the hydrocarbons in russia. with all of your maybe that is a story for next. this is a friday reality that its june.own 35% from resources at goldman sachs, synthesize for us the cross nicholas is in beijing. asset moment. i like to determine this regan joins us. the three themes of macro. mick, what is the character of deleveraging is one of them. this decline? one of them is deleveraging what is different in this equity pressure. the third is divergence in weakness? growth. nicholas: people is dohe money question thought the government had set a you have the financial system limit for the fall at 3500. over to the economic system. this will blink. they will have to wait for the that is where they are hoping to see the government jump in. first -- fourth d, december. muchis a debate about how jeff: they are moving further the government is going to intervene in the economy. out in december. right now, market participants they are not taking 2000 off the are betting on the idea they are not owing to let it go much table. lower than 3500 and they will tom: the fifth the is the start testing that to see what detroit red wings. brendan: these are data happens to see if we can get a

pop once the government dependency. intervenes to push stocks up here in --. brendan: is any of this a notes.ook at the if we take the notes we have response to the tmi numbers that most recently and you run those came out? assumptions forward, what do you nicholas: the get? loop.negative feedback problem is it's not just bad on its own. it's the latest in a slew of every time you have a drop in economic data that has been so the oil price, it leads to a stronger dollar. that leads to a weaker currency bad. it's adding to the evidence. in austria. that puts further pressure on the think that is interesting about the data is you look at commodities. the estimates. that is the loop we are in. , people thought it was in your study of history, w do going to be bad but not this bad. we break that loop? that suggests people are jeff: you have to clear balance sheets. tom: what are we going to see underestimating how bad the economy is right now. tom: thank you so much. the catharsis to clear balance sheets? michael regan is with us. you name the company. routed equities join the when do we see the clearing? yesterday? jeff: i think you take the we have been waiting. metals and money sector.

michael: we used to talk about they were thinking about where the greenspan. they are. you need to see the energy people thought there was a china companies. put. tom: i've got to get this out of the way. future ofchs on the that's fair. china did throw the kitchen singapore, do they need to go stink -- sake at their stock into a full-scale restructuring? jeff: the timing of it is market and tried to prop it up. dependent on the commodity it's just not working. on china.all eyes are markets. right now, it's hostile. we need to see it much more tom: let me jump in here with energy. even though oil is back down to mickey leavy. $41 a barrel, it traded low $50 a barrel. they ignore short-term financial stress is higher. fluctuation. hedging by the companies is around 9% versus 25%. for decades, he has been a student of central banks are on edge and more breaking cardinal rules. does she have the message delivered? disposed as we go in? brendan: we know with the : it's clear that the fed dynamic is between china and the should be hiking rates. been lookingalways commodity countries. look at malaysia and indonesia. for excuses not to hike.

now we have this concern about what is the difference between to what extent will the slowdown those economies in our economy? jeff: the linkage is not direct. in growth in china of fact not the way i think about it, what growth? thect u.s. happens with the u.s. dollar? as fed has a concern once again. it begins to strengthen, it puts they should be hiking rates. downward pressure on those currencies. tom: this goes back to december. take china, that lowers the cost of producing steel and commodities they export and they push them onto the global market argue back to december even though you want to go in july? area it exacerbates the glut. tom: where is the clearing of mickey: i wanted them to go last year. tom: markets? there is price across this matrix. optimism onesilient u.s. equities. can you confirm that? jeff: to ask your question about the clearing price, when you look at commodities, they go from solution to solution. the backend may give you an idea where the clearing price in. the market says $50 a barrel.

they run a surplus until they shall all. tom: we will continue a corner solution. you can look this up on wikipedia. you get a jump condition. was yesterday the getting of a jump condition? jeff: when you look at the back end, the friend and was up a little bit. the back end was off 2%. tom: this is the future you of oil. it is coming down as the spot prices stay that it. what does that mean for saudi arabia? jeff: i am not ready to say saudi arabia is in crisis mode. they are going through a macro repricing like the rest of the world. tom: we are going to continue this discussion. we are looking at lower for longer as well. michaelt to go back to regan. he made a particular question. is the bull market over?

good morning, everyone. we have a morning must-read. we have been wondering about joe biden. there have been lots of leaks.

here is a morning must-read. biden has been running all along. he is hillary clinton's understudy. i picked this read. it's the first o'hara explanation of what he is doing. we have this conversation all the time. what is he doing publicly when she has endorsements, money, locked down. there is polling data out. in a head-to-head with trump, joe biden has the edge. a 10% advantage in ohio. stand, he could carry it. isn't the rhetorical debate that

her support goes to him? she has to implode. he real question is not if eats her in the primary or if something causes her to collapse or it scandal after scandal, she has proved resilient. bernie sanders is having a much bigger affect on her campaign, dragging her to the left. joe biden has many qualities. he is roughly similar to her. he serves as a replacement. essentially he is in mourning. brendan: everything that came saysfter he lost his son

he is loved in washington. he is loved by everyone in that town on both sides of the aisle. that's hard to do. tom: joe biden considers his future. we will continue commodity coverage across bloomberg television and radio. we are more optimistic about the outcome of where we are in hydrocarbons. he will be on market makers later. currieinue with jeffrey of goldman sachs.

vonnie: firefighters mourned three of their friends. they died wednesday when their vehicle crashed and flames overwhelmed of them. they are battling fires. says someate press government employees were using the cheating website. tiger woods posts his best round of golf in two years. thehot a 64 at the start of tournament in north carolina. he has two shots behind the leaders. that has to sound good. tom: life is short. here is the door.

let's talk oil. i like how you did that. brendan: here is a man who does not need a website you heard it already. deflation is the title of a note from goldman sachs. these trends have then in the making for a decade. jeff curry is the economist who wrote those words. we are used to dating events in economics. you goteresting to see back to 2005. what should we have seen then that was already apparent? jeff: i dated back to 2001. the dollar was at its strongest point. what happened later that year, you had september 11.

that through the economy into recession. you actually saw both the oil and dollar rollover at the exact same time. that helped stimulate growth in emerging markets. we had stronger growth in australia. that puts pressure on a commodity prices. that puts pressure on oil prices. that leads to a weaker u.s. dollar. that's similar to what we are seeing. september 11 is an event. do i understand that correctly? lashawn commodities in 2002. -- bullish on it commodities. that was that time when the weak dollar ticked off. when you think about what

happened, there was no russian ruble. it did not start trading until the early 2000. those currencies started appreciating and roll up the costs. tom: the mexican peso is down 31%. we know this gets fixed like politics at the end of the day. do we need more pain before we have something positive? jeff: substantially more pain. we sought in metals. now we are starting to see it in the agriculture markets. we are getting to that point. we will continue to see more pain across the sector. theie: are you waiting for end of september when banks decide whether to finance or not? jeff: use of a tipping point yesterday. we have the reset. that is going to cause the back end to sold off.

it sold off yesterday. tom: there is a jargon alert. what is a revolving reset? jeff: it's important because when we think about access to where the's based on market or where the banks see the long-term price. they put it where the old long-term price was. now you've got the back end sitting at a lower range. tom: could be spot go below $20 a barrel? jeff: if we end up breaching storage capacity, spot prices have to collapse down. when they get down to cash cost, what it costs to keep the system running, we would argue there are two sources. it's summer between $30 and $40 a barrel. , people have strong

balance sheets. you have to go down to the cash cost. now you are talking $20 a barrel. tom: what does that do to the dollar in canada? jeff: in terms of thinking about it would be weaker we have those dark clouds across manhattan. we need to get to a morning must-read. than 1.3. i think most people would see this as a temporary event. we could get the production cut. tom: this is critical. vonnie: there is an irony that it's a temporary of that. you are saying lower for longer. hangs in the air. jeff: lower for longer in terms the picture look so baffling of the long-term rice. it's hard to see how anyone could depend on those numbers. the equity price is trying to price into something else in. to mickey leavy and asked brendan: you went from short him why he thinks the fetish of risen a long time ago and we had dollar too long dollar. when did you come to jesus on that? across. shifted from a product to the lender.

we don't know where growth is. we're not sure why it's picking let's go back to 2005. up. we were short the dollar and long on commodities. as the market started to shift, he: it can't create permanent we started to transition. jobs. it can't create output. tom: lloyd blank fine says lloyd this is why the fed shouldn't raise rates. monetary policy has been much less effective than the fed has -- goldman sachs came to jesus? told us it has been. stay with us. we have seen no acceleration in nominal gdp. it hasn't accelerated above 4% through this economic expansion. what is your policy prescription? prescription?avy mickey: the federal reserve should they the economy is on sound footing and we continue to

predicted inflation is going to go to 2%. tom: but it hasn't happened. how do you respond to those who say the inflation numbers are wrong? we have an inflation objective and --. tom: we are going to come back and talk about this. stay with us. good morning.

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tom: good "surveillance" correction. we asked about foreign exchange and he got dad and he did not he is not answer and supposed to answer on foreign exchange, so we want to get that out of the way. top headlines, here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: more concerned about a slowdown in china. markets to new york. manufacturing fell to a lowest since 2009 as emerging markets had their worst week in 10 years. 5% today.more than chinese stocks have lost almost everything that was gained. europe, theacross worst day after 18 months for tom: we are riled up on the desk the s&p 500. oil headed for their eighth with mickey leavy. straight weekly boss. let's get to our top headlines. streak sinceosing vonnie: investors are more 1986. the promised her of greece said he will quit and call for new

concerned about a slowdown in elections. tsipras has been in office eight china are in it that is rocking markets. it one measure of chinese months but not planning to give up. an election could turn to par manufacturing fell to its lowest with a more manageable level since 2000 mine. coalition. they are angry because tsipras -- 2009. the index fell 5% today. stocks have given up almost all try to get bailout money. of their chinese gains since the an election can be held as soon government stepped in. as september 20. european indices are shares of twitter drop below ipo price of $26, down almost two down. thirds. the selloff was triggered when jack dorsey, interim ceo, warned meanwhile, oil is headed toward its eight weekly loss in a row. that it would take a lot before that is the longest losing streak since 1986. twitter is able to reverse a slowdown in user growth. the prime minister of greece andsearch for a new ceo says he will quit and call for new elections. search over whether dorsey is in he does not plan on going away. contention for the job and also [indiscernible] an election may give him the dissenterset rid of for jeb bush, no more mr. nice guy. listened toe has and his own party. last night, he defended the bailout agreement. trump lock it repeatedly. it bush fired back at the front-runner. big difference >> we have not achieved the deal we were hoping for in january.

we did not expect such a between donald trump at me. i'm a proven conservative for reaction. given thea deal that the record. he has proposed the largest tax increase in mankind's history, overwhelmingly negative reaction from europe and what we not just our own country. i have been consistently inherited was the only one that could succeed. pro-life. until recently, he was for vonnie: elections could be held partial-birth abortion. i did not ever meet a person who september 20. shares of hp are falling. thought that was a good idea. quarterly earnings missed estimates. vonnie: he pointed out that they have a difficult trump had been a democrat longer environment for personal than a republican. computers. stuart making plans now that accounts for half of their business. they are splitting into two units. that he is no longer hosting for jeb bush, it's no more mr. "the daily show." want him to moderate nice guy. he has had to listen to donald presidential debate. trump mocked him. he frequently interviewed yesterday, he fired back. presidents and other political figures. more than 100,000 people have signed a petition at change.org. there is a big difference it will be sent to the between donald trump and me. commission on presidential debates. i cut taxes every year and he has proposed a tax increase. those are the top headlines. i wonder how long it will take to make that decision. brendan: he always maintained consistently the fiction that he was just a pro-life. until recently, he was for comedian. i found that embarrassing. partial-birth abortion. he is more than a comedian. vonnie: i don't know that that

i never met a person who thought that was a good idea. is true. he definitely wouldn't say he vonnie: he has talent. was social commentator, witty? he would get as serious fans of john stewart have big plans for him. as he wanted and then back off to pretend to be comedian. i think it will be interesting they want him to host a presidential debate. to see what he does what he is shucked off that mantle 100,000 people are backing a entirely. i would love to see him. position on the change.org website. as you just heard, alexis they sent the request of the tsipras resigned his post as commission on presidential debates. tom: it's a really interesting prime minister of greece and that set off a chain of events that will likely lead to question. elections on september 20. to a lot of of america, that's a tom is in athens. rational request. brendan: will bruce springsteen he would not have done this if he did not think he could build provide the music? tom: that is how much he changed a new coalition after the vote. what reason does he have to the debate. think he can pull this off? he says he is the best man and he wouldagic for the job and in a passionate deliver the goods. interesting. speech yesterday to the greek interesting. brendan: we've been hearing on people, he said that he thought the hardest and not he got the this desk about u.s. equities having an immune system. best deal. all of these reforms are part of the bailout package and they

we have a strong consumer base. will be negotiated. he said he knows he is the most this is not a reason for panic. paul sweeney is with us. popular leader amongst politicians in greece, according he is the head of research at bloomberg intelligence. to the latest poll. he thinks he's got a strong hand : the tape yesterday was and timing is crucial. opposition already lining up and disconcerting for a lot of trying to form a government to people. what we have asked our analysts take this on and looks like this to do, is two things. will happen. there are politicians saying it look at valuation. is unlikely. what is the color of where are sectors trading verses coalition increase? who would mr. tsipras link where they traded historically. forces with? diver two, take a deep interestingly, tom, we into some of the growth drivers for some of the sectors and see where maybe the industry needs democracy and he to recalibrate some of the growth. that dovetails into valuation. brendan: are we not immune from that a is not unfeasible what's going on in the rest of coalition could take place the world? between his party and they have shifted to a more central paul: we have seen this in certain pockets of the marketplace. the broader selloff that position now that it is more left-wing rebels that set up accompanied it really hit home their own party, but the more for a lot of investors. likely coalition is between more

this is not just a regional left-wing. issue. this is spreading to the u.s. market. that is what it is looking like. brendan: we have been talking tom: tom, thank you so much in about the fed. i want to talk more broadly. athens. we have for the last two years drama over thet had a several economies in europe, sweden, switzerland, weekend. let me look at the data check. one hour data check, nymex crude denmark, that have been safe 4118 in west texas havens but they are now suffering. we see swatch earnings terrible. intermediate. are there safe havens left? but i would really focus is german 10 year at a lower safe paul: there are fewer and fewer. haven yield in mexican peso's the u.s. is still a safe haven. the economy is solid. and gives way this morning. i am brendan greeley is. and switzerland. of course. with tom keene and vonnie quinn. tom: a sideshow but imported. , portfolios are the media meltdown this quarter after many quarters of still rocked by the currency. performance. the media stocks modestly implode but the back story is the old-fashioned united states is still solid. tom: the nominal gdp concerns, not pretty. content is still king, but well, maybe a queen for the day all the companies that we margin.

court cutters are beginning to follow, the you have a fair how rile business. you for dollar s&p? richard greenfield, years at goldman sachs, has been courageous and pushing against are we overpriced right now? the media zeitgeist earlier this week where he got into a major push back with cbs. paul: a lot of investors are looking at it specter -- sector richard greenfield really went after you on the future of specific. the media sector has had a template -- television and correction but it is nothing like we've seen in other sectors like energy. television revenue. they slam do on twitter and said, where does rich greenfield get this stuff? we are talking to our clients defender so, what did cbs get wrong? and they are looking at it is a fundamental sector by sector in trying to put it in perspective. tom: is this an opportunity? change in consumer behavior. we are near a correction. whether it is your self, your kids, your friends, we are all what do you do at 10%? sitting in front of the television and we watched lots of television every day. i think the difference, tom, is investors we are talking we are sitting there with another device in usually in our to say what are the real growth laps, a phone, tablet, lab top. forecasts? tom: this goes to the terminal every time a commercial break goes down, you are staring down value debate. at your phone. " isess your "engagement are you going to tell mr. sweeney that his new forecast is

a lower weight of return -- rate focused around that personal device in your life which is that mobile device. of return? mickey: i think it's too early what cbs said publicly last week to say that. was that people are actually not the economy is on sound footing. fast forwarding as much on their it will continue to grow. dvr's new commercials anymore if you look at potential because they are so busy on their mobile phones that they imbalances in the economy, you forget to fast-forward. are not seeing them. a huge comments even though we are in the seventh year of expansion, it from cbs because it just proves looks like we are at the the fact that permit advertising beginning. brendan: paul sweeney, when i standpoint, where does the brand want to be? on the tv or the phone? on the phone. hear you talk about sector i tom: what is the ratio of loss sector, but it sounds like as we of revenue as we migrate from are looking at understanding the fundamentals that are and not 32nd commercials none of us watch over to the commercials of general panic and collapse. mobile cell phone? how much do they lose on a paul: that is what we are hearing from the clients we percentage basis? talked to. they are trying to factor in not is $65 billion of just energy or china or the currencies. tv advertising that has what does it mean holistic late? basically grown. in has basically grown forever, and i think what you are seeing -- holistically? is for the first time ever, and tom: paul's when he with a you all talk about the overall healthy economy on bloomberg

over the course of the last shameless plug of the bloomberg terminal. don't complete year, it may not be perfect but it is getting better. this is the first time we have had a reasonably healthy market spending understand the markets, is this a time for panic or quiet concern? and down television advertising. something is changing, so that $65 billion we believe is an paul: i think the tape yesterday showed you some panic. secular decline and i think cbs does not want to believe it. vonnie: we finished with earning have paul sweeney season for this time around. with us from bloomberg intelligence. we have been talking about corporate in for about five what would be the next catalyst? years. could it be the u.s. dollar? if we take a broader look, what is the one data point you would paul: i think it's going to be look to that would explain this interest rates. move? i feel like we have been waiting forever. we are going to turn back to the fed. tom: i like that. talk about the we've got to run. media meltdown over the last several weeks and rich has i want to know from you, when we look at the fed, is the dollar been raising this issue for a long time but became over the last couple of weeks that the going to get in the way? will canary in the coal mine was that get in the way of best laid disney. plans? mickey: the fed expresses when disney had their earnings a couple weeks ago, they talked about espn losing viewers. concern. if you look at every fed hike espn is the stalwarts of the episode since the early 80's, television bundle losing viewers the dollar goes down as much as and disney, therefore, had to

it goes up. if you look it every said rate lower guidance for profitability. we had never seen that before hike episode, the stock target and that for the general portfolio manager out there was the wake-up call. vonnie: richard greenfield either chopped sideways or goes up. tom: you can go home now. called out on this as well and make usually the has told you the defense disney is giving is everything is all right. that they go directly to brendan: thank you, paul consumers and they have the capability, but you say they don't have the engineers and sweeney. actingron baird bank is will not be able to attract and they are no good at technology. asking where it -- here it --. richard: i think they are all blessing. a really cannot do it. -- they are all laughing. brendan: this is "limited they really cannot do it. there are 94 million people surveillance." paying espn seven dollars a month effectively to go direct to consumer. the minute they do it, they lose the protection of being in the most distributed tears. also think about this -- let's just say that 20 million people to 30 my and people would pay for espn direct to consumer. remember, you do not have to subscribe the whole year. that is what netflix has taught us. so muche to put programming on to keep your

entire family engaged, but if you think about more niche content sources like espn, you don't not have to subscribe beyond football season. mentioning bloomberg as the ultimate niche content. thank you so much with the tig research. and paul, thank you. brendan: he has really been out there and talking about the contents of the media relative to netflix. paul sweeney. tom: we will get him back. our twitter question is, is the unloved bull market over? ♪

tom: futures deteriorate. vesture.sting single -- vesture. brendan: now that the negotiations are over, greece turns to the economy. that is the subject of today's single best chart., pull this chart together yesterday. we are looking at it in dollars. tom, you can see the rise in the

early 2000's. tom: it worked. brendan: look back at the entry into the european union in 1981. growth slows. i would not have expected it to tom: good morning. see that. tom: there is a lot going on there. bloomberg's "surveillance." this is per capita gdp. what's not there and i know you want to go to athens on this, we are looking at the markets selloff yesterday. they are in depression. olivia sterns with us as we we forget about that. drive the story forward. i saw michael holland drag brendan: tom mackenzie is in himself in here. athens for bloomberg. he did not really want to come in today but that is the right test to have. olivia: it is. has called for new we will balance a lot with doug, elections. what is the case he needs to a technical there right now. make. michael holland always once to greece is in depression. support the market, but this has what is his cell for what looks been the bull rally that nobody wants to love. like september 20? he says after the scars, he is tom: indeed. holding more. am: but doug kast is in his speech last night to the people of trees, he said he had managed to get this deal. confirmed short and has been added the agility of jeff. and others that they see as well. he got the best deal possible. olivia: i am looking forward to

he has tough reforms that will our, situate the cast. he put out, decision that says be difficult to swallow. peak everything. he is still very popular vonnie: they are both the relative to the other party leaders. believers in apple, so it will his resignation and the popular be interesting to see what they say about apple. olivia: and the big selloff with election, things are already squeezed here. stocks, facebook, apple, they have very limited credit netflix, the fab five. tom: is this from the gap? available. the bank is propped up by the olivia: this is from dbs, i wish ecb. it was from the gap because i it's going to be a tough sell. would probably have gone 50% his opponents are lining up to off. tom: she knows everything about take him on. brendan: what will his new coalition look like? how will shoes forward and what i will they handle all of these reforms are coming? spend my money on in the fall. developmentsing tell us about cap. olivia: cap shares down 20%. this morning. the question is at the turnover vote,mps that did not is taking hold. gap has had trouble with inventory, not because of the many of them have formed their west coast start, but because own party. they're not clearing the staff. of banana company they are an anti-austerity party. that could prove positive. republic has really just been forced to discount so much it could be a detriment. merchandise. brendan: i always like have a

holland because he goes to china often. if they take away many of those point andt other data angry voters that were picked up in january back --. official numbers that are coming out. jim curry, when you look at china, what is michael hollande the point that you would use they could move to the center ground and take more votes. other than gdp numbers? there is the possibility of coalitions. and not unlikely external and internal. when we think about external, we forget that the currency and the reason they devalued recently is that he could do a deal with new democracy. it has depreciated so much. they've got similar ideologies. they are faced with a relatively strong currency and we demand from everywhere around which is that is more likely. creating an external drag. a coalition is possible. your internal problem is brendan: tom mackenzie for essentially in terms of credit expansion being too large bloomberg starling -- standing relative to gdp. put it together, a situation you in front of the parliament need to be resolved. brendan: you don't have a building in athens. favorite measure like ships off short to let you know what is going on? that is one of the parties that was in power. it: in commodity, we look at three governments ago. in terms of this flow of oil vonnie: you can remember all of from west africa into china. that is what they get their these names. brendan: let's get to mickey marginal barrel, but other than copper, different leavy.

how interesting to see electricity numbers and so forth. vonnie: you all will have growth has slowed. all of those funds they got from francisco on "market makers" and brussels would have improved speaking to jim. growth. 2001, theginning in olivia: they recently lowered greek government borrowed huge the end for the three quarters and west texas and in in august sums of money at very low interest rates. and in september around $45 a barrel. they were a member of the eu. they think it will cold study to when you look at when they were $50 a barrel by the end of 2015. growing for five years, there was no growth in industrial what you think about that? production. jim: that is pretty much in line now you have a situation where the economy is declining. with our view. we have had an and your target the labor force is declining. about $45 a barrel going back to earlier this year, but we do unless they implement some think there is a risk to these numbers. much, olivia. so reforms, they're a denominator is going to decline. you have a great lineup. olivia sterns with gap and hope they implement others. friday morning is the unloved something positive. he minced no words about bull market over? ♪ it. brendan: it's fascinating to hear you talk about this. free movement of capital has

been bad within the european union but free movement of labor has been bad. they are leaving because they can. you are getting the worst sides of the eu. mickey: do they want to grow? that's going to require some economic reforms. we hope that the electorate votes for growth reforms. tom: that is a story that continues. they finish fresh uncertainty. my uncertainty is these photos. the first one is a doozy. vonnie: it's the north korean leader holding an emergency meeting thursday evening. tom: i like the guys in the background. vonnie: i would not want to meet them in a dark alley. he is ordered his military to enter a wartime state after north and south korea exchanged artillery fire. are broadcasting

provocatively. south korea reached the art of them because two soldiers were answered -- injured in a landmine explosion. tom: that is the latest headline from south korea. north korean provocation is an expectable -- unacceptable. this is important over the weekend. vonnie: a wartime state is not what you want. sye number two photo, bank is causing a stir. it's located in somerset. the amusement park will be open for five weeks. i can see kids flocking to this. brendan: this is amazing. i could see parents taking their kids on irony vacations.

he says one of the more fastening things i've heard recently. he says invisibility is a superpower. for people to not know who you are is an amazing power. the number one top photo, dinosaurs went extinct millions of years ago. existe of them still outside hanover germany. scientists found several giant footprints from a 30 ton tom: we have headlines added dinosaur. dinosaur 145necked turkey right now and greece will happen election and turkey calls million years ago. for one on november 1 as well. they are 17 inches deep. where were you a couple of weeks the headlines speak of the tensions of the regions and i ago? think really about the refugee and aboutout of syria surprised with those the kurds in northern iraq. footprints. it makes me wonder. here is a single headline from brendan: i was curious. the bloomberg terminal -- turkey's people must weed out

it was in a tiny village. separatist terrorists. tom: let's go to our twitter which means this is not an question. dow futures are at -74. normal election. brendan: they are not used to working with the kurds. it is something they have been the question goes to markets. asked to do in northern syria. as we run airplanes added stay with us on radio and television all day. the unloved bull market, is it over? turkey. much more on that. mickey leavy says no. turkey to have an election on coming up, the fed it. november 1. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: jimmy carter says cancer stay with us. is slowing but not stopping him. he is being treated with radiation and a new drug to fight for small brain tumors. as much as he is able, he plans to keep teaching and fundraising. he and his wife roslyn moke celebrate her birthday tomorrow and their georgia home. jimmy carter is over one month away from his 91st birthday. arees of hewlett-packard falling in premarket. they missed estimates. they're predicting a tough environment for personal computers and printers. hp'smake up about half of

business. hp is preparing to split into two units. old of truism,s if you own a poll, neighbors will come over. a new jersey, can testify to that. bears decided to make their pool part of their habitat. they call police and i don't know what police are supposed to do, but it did not spoil the party in the slightest. it's when they start a picnic where you have to worry. -- you: you can't show can see the pictures on radio, but there are four black bear cubs in a pool with the mama bear. actually, that is the greeley family. vonnie: they make you want to get in with them but probably not a good idea. brendan: not with mama bear there. their video friday is what it is. -- bear video friday is what it is. wheni had one go after me i was 12 years old. they are not funny. it was not -- they are cute

until they are not. vonnie: you jersey has a problem. it is the most popular state for bears. tom: they move like light speed when they decide to, it is sobering. let's move on to oil right now. talking about bear oil. each strategists interprets where their market is heading. the market is oil and jeffrey curry of goldman sachs. i want to talk about responses in elasticity production up, up, up. how will supply respond to that single point price that you have in your head? jim: the only way you get a correction is that you fill in the inventory up to the point that you cannot put another barrel into storage again and then prices collapse. tom: is the u.s. at that point right now? jim: we are getting closer today. tom: what is the manipulation of china's petroleum reserve filling have to do with global pricing? the market aives

lifeline, so normally, go back to 1998, the last time we blew out storage, it happened mainly in the u.s. now that you have sbr in china, it can extend the tom: process on storage sitting offshore. a fancyontrol room is get from oxford that demands to know your single point price on oil? tom: in our next hour, jeff curry. where is it? look for that in our next hour. jeffrey: you have corner solutions. tom: you are killing me. right now, our top lines. vonnie: jimmy carter says cancer is slowing his work but won't i'm sorry, kieran, i tried and i stop it. failed. he is being treated with vonnie: jeff, what are the radiation to fight for small commodities most related in oil brain tumors. where we see the drop? he plans to keep teaching and fundraising. jeffrey: they are all on the same cycle. he and his wife will celebrate you see the base complex, the her birthday tomorrow. hiss just a month away from bull conflicts, agriculture all coming down together because they are inputs to one another. 91st birthday. shales of salesforce are rising. you think about agriculture and energy as the big input. the emerging fx markets are important because they do determine cost. talks: when janet yellen has spent the last

two years developing corporate social networks and data about transitory factors analytics. affecting inflation so they are griffinoot all, robert not counting commodity prices and their drop in inflation, is took a number of hard-hit before she wrong? could this be a longer-term and leaving last night preseason the work, as is a -- as you say, game with a concussion. they beat detroit. no word yet on how long he will fact? be out. the entirethink you hate to see concussions. sectors going to the commodity tom: he has just been heard. repricing. the question is where is that price because it is a function that's all there is to it. we of where is the u.s. dollar, where are the these currencies have an ax -- exclusive report. like the pesto, wrubel, we do the football was properly not know where the quote librium deflated. this week, the st. louis fed lies, so that is why i will not give an answer. our best guess is along $50 a suggest qe has not worked. barrel for oil, but you need to mickey leavy is an economist at establish an equilibrium in one of the markets. baron berg bank. the north to figure out what is he has been upfront with the going on in the commodity market, so you need an equilibrium in iron, oil, in the tools used by janet yellen. euro, all these markets to identify one. the cast shadow on it. brendan: a look at long-term recovery of china, let's say gets back up the, is it wrong, what is the shadow?

mickey: it's a group of is oil changed forever? maybe not changed primarily private academics who analyze and critique the fed and forever but in terms of what pop back up to $100 a barrel because that is where the old central-bank policies around the world. equilibrium that was established tom: in this is the great partition. we have two americas, the haves between 2010 and 2014 was -- the answer is unlikely. and have-nots. why? all other variables have changed. vonnie: the 25 point basis increase in september before there is inflation in certain areas. refinancing happen, without put there is disinflation in other more pressure? areas. is janet yellen looking at the jeffrey: it is too small to have that big of an impact. right inflation? mickey: ok. what is going on in china is far more important and central to commodity markets. won't even happen. the fed in 2012 set out to percent as a long-run inflation jeffrey: very small. tom: this weekend when you try target. to write the story forward, they chose the pce deflator. prices in goods what we think about? in the blur of rationalization at $80 a barrel, and and services are rising. rationalization at $42 in west if you look at the pce and texas, what is the now what for services, they are rising at 2%. jeff curry? tom: i get this mail from every jeffrey: i think we are beginning to see financial

viewer, the economist or wrong stress in the market. the question is, how long does it take for the financial stress to drop? tom: what did you learn from and there is more inflation. samson resources? is that correct? mickey: no. jeffrey: still too small. we need barge or of energy to keep in mind, the bureau of economic analysis, they do start. tom: this is $7 billion down to quality adjustment. the key point here is we are 1.2 billion and curry is telling us this is too small. seven years into an economic expansion. jeffrey: most of the companies the unemployment rate is low. we have seen under financial inflation by some measures is distress at this point to not amount to a substantial production growth. below. there is no with of deflation. you need the ones who are substantially growing production to start to feel this pain and tom: you have talked to paul then you will get backlash. typically in this market, it does not actually adjust krugman. production until you hit the wall. tom: a lesson learned as many how do you respond to that? mickey: i'd say that is in part see this. fair. i think of glencore's comments over the last 72 hours. when the fed artificially keeps rates at zero and pumps we could go all day. thank you so much. what is our 20 question, is jeff liquidity into the economy, if it does not show up, it creates curry involved? vonnie: always. distortions and they are our first answer, i think know mounting. let me add one other point. because corporate earnings are

at this point, if we were to returning more than 0% interest available elsewhere. tom: interesting. pushing on that earlier saying discuss whether the fed should he asked if things were ok in hike rates from 1.5%, it would the united states? vonnie: how long will that continue? second answer, yes, unless be a legitimate discussion. to talk about should the fed unlimited qe has gone wild. tom: is that from an oriole? [laughter] zero, i'm from know the money question, baffled. we be in the brendan, from this week's what does japan do next? seventh year of an economic as a percent of gdp, it is an expansion westmark brendan: what enormous. brendan: my question is, when will we learn that what changes is the core that is the whites dynamic is actual fiscal policy? of their eyes? iskey: the core pce deflator vonnie: third answer, no, the 1.3 and they increase. bull market is like #trump, what let me address this question. does not kill it, makes it the growth in the economy has , it has nothing stronger. #trump 2016. tom: does he really have a live to do with monetary policy. it has to do with government eagle in his office? brendan: i was wondering about policies and adjustments. the hike in rates would have no that. he was looking nervous in the shoot and i am thinking yes. impact. vonnie: speaking of politicians, tom: we are going to have you

time for the agenda and mine is come back. that i will be watching korea. what a day of market turmoil. tom: let me get that out of the the mexican peso way. the story of the weekend into can't find a bid. next monday. i would talk about the russian ruble is near 70. stay with us. rationalizations that have been seen. whenever you see rationalizations, put your radar up. like jeff curry, i'm looking for catharsis, whether financial a price ribbon, there is zero catharsis, zero sweat within the delicate balance of august. vonnie: it may be a busy september. north korea does not seem like a huge moment but will keep an eye on that over the weekend because shoddy matches over the military zone have a tendency not to end well. brendan: they will escalate by accident. that is what scares me. greece is what i am looking at today. we have that snap election called by alexis tsipras. a lot of things completely outside of his control. most important is whether or not the country gets some form of debt relief, -- tom: how did you respond to

steve's comment about the return of the drop? is that still on the table? brendan: i think you made it clear they will not tolerate that. it will inflict misery but not allow greece. curry withrry, jeff goldman sachs, we will continue market coverage on bloomberg radio on "surveillance" and "market makers" next. willieve in the holland talk about the opportunity to buy at this moment. stay with us worldwide. bloomberg's "surveillance." ♪

>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. this is "market makers," with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. olivia: good morning, everybody. happy friday. it is august 21 and you are watching "market makers." i am olivia sterns with the man who shot a few inches. corey: by friday, i'm about five inches -- five feet and eight inches. i am not erik or stephanie. they are off this week. looking down on the wall street. the dow lost 358 points and s&p 500 tumbled the most. you investors who know these things. my call and caused this a pessimistic market in stocks and oil has the longest run that -- joins us aso launch

what to talk about his target for crude. olivia: it will be a nice discussion with my colin, the perennial bowl and we will contrast him -- with mike holland, the perennial bull. you can play good cop and i will play bad cop.