tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 26, 2015 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT
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fed president bill dudley says the case for a september rate increase is now less compelling. monsanto's pursuit of syngenta is over. they abandoned their quest to buy the largest maker of pesticides. mark: forget about tech companies and hedge funds. wall street could be about to lose top talent to regional banks. and rhoders in ohio island are becoming attractive landing spot. lenders in ohio and rhode island are becoming attractive lendinanding spots. good afternoon, i matt miller. apologies, every time i say ohio, i am supposed to say the great state of ohio. home of matthew miller. wall street is trying to gain its footing to get back on solid ground.
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stocks advancing after the steepest losing streak in four years. let's check the boards of the s&p 500, jumping at the open after a 3% rally on tuesday, evaporated in the last hour of trading. right now the broader market is up eight point 5%. the dow jones industrial average is also trading higher today, up 260 points at 15,900 25, a gain of 1.6%. the nasdaq is also in the green on this wednesday, up nearly 1.5%. nymex crude today is flirting with the $40 a barrel mark. at $39.13. it is down almost half a percent , trading at that level following yesterday's recovery from the lowest level since 2009. brent crude of a quarter percent. ignorers continue to gold as a safe haven, the focus instead on the prospect of higher u.s. interest rates.
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goal down one and a quarter 1001 hundred $24.70 and outs. at bonds in look the u.s.. a continued selloff here. the two-year yield up 0.66%. the 30-yield at 2.9%. basis points. take a look at currencies. some dollar strength against a bigger basket. index, it ist the gaining. if you look at the euro, $1.14 is what you are seeing there. losing a little bit of strength against the euro as the dollar is gaining against the yen. 119.41. 1.57 for a pound. i want to turn to the biggest loser on the s&p index right now.
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making ager j an oiled your maker, cameron international. they have been down 20% in six sessions. storieso get to the top crossing. a gunman described as a disgruntled employee of a virginia tv station suspected in the killings of a television reporter and cameraman is hospitalized at this hour. state police say the suspect ran off the road and crashed as they pursued him. he was found to be suffering from a gunshot wound and is being treated for life-threatening injuries. the general manager of wdbj says alison parker and adam ward were shot and killed on my television earlier today. parker was interviewing and economic development official about local tourism at a shopping center when eight shots rang out.
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she is in stable condition after undergoing surgery. turning to some of today's business headlines, lower interest rates have not stop the she is in stable condition after undergoing surgery. collapse in chinese stock prices. the shanghai composite index fell more than 1% overnight. that extended the steepest slide since 1996 and came a day after china central bank cut interest rates. we discussed china earlier. the dog.il cannot wag short-term market movements, of course you have to look at them in the markets, but you have to look beyond them. what is going on in china had little to do with day-to-day market trading strategies and everything to do with horrible news. matt: chinese stocks have lost half of their value since june. mark: under armour investors have created a new class of shares that do not have voting rights. that means the founder and ceo kevin plank will remain in
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control of the sporting-goods maker. the move allows plank to sell shares without losing any control. monsanto has dropped its $47 billion takeover offer for syngenta. they had indicated the offer did not meet their expectations. says it willsanto resume a share buyback program as soon as possible. matt: microsoft says its new windows 10 software is on more than 75 million computers, tablets, and other devices. the company is trying to rebuild user loyalty and hopes to get the software installed on a billion devices over the next three years. windows 10 was released less than a month ago and is being offered as a free download for computer owners. that is a look at our top stories. mark: coming up in the bloomberg market day, class action suits have been rolling in against ashley madison since hackers published a list of clients. how flaws in cyber security could cost the company
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everything. providing writers and illustrators with the tools for a best seller. is tryingcalled blurb to cash in on the self-publishing movement. traders and investors have been betting four months that the fed would raise interest rates in september or december, but volatility in china, the u.s., and other markets, may be changing that equation. this into new york fed president bill dudley. >> at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting seems less compelling to me that was a few weeks ago. but normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. more insight on the on the rate increase next month. here in new york is michael feroli, the chief u.s. economist at j.p. morgan. let's zero in on what mr. dudley said. is he right, are the odds now listening that the fed will make a move next month? so.ael: i think
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i think he confirmed what the market was already anticipating. before today, markets were putting odds of may be one in four that they would hike in september. i think that they came out and said what is happening in the markets is causing us to be a little less inclined in september. left the door a little open toward developments, should they improve in the next few weeks, but i think the odds are less than 50% after we got that confirmation from dudley today. mistaken, youot already had the on this morning at 35% to 40%, but you still think september is the most likely month this year. is that the case after the comments? think that's right. it does not seem like september will happen. obviously, we have to wait and see but we get next week with payrolls. then get a blowout number, september could come back. if it doesn't happen in
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september, it is a tossup of whether they move in october or december. if they want to wait for more reassurance from the markets, they could probably go in october. if they are worried about the economic situation, it seems they could move in december. one thing to keep in mind is he did affirm that they do have a desire to move before year's end. doing the first move next year would probably be a little bit of a signal of the feet on the part of the fed and i don't think they want to concede that. even december seems pretty weak. especially if the economic data between now and september looks good. that is the move. october, a lot of people do not realize there is a meeting in october. the reason is, we don't talk about it because there is no press conference around the meeting. do you think they would change that and have a presser, if they did, indeed, raise rates? michael: the fed and yellen has
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been clear, they can call a press conference at any meeting. they have tended to do important things only around press conference meetings, but they can call an ad hoc press conference. i don't think that should be too big of a hurdle to make in october. surprised that mr. dudley did not place a lot of emphasis on equity markets for his change of heart? michael: i don't think they want to reinforce the idea that there is a yellen put, or a greenspan put, and they are responding to markets. i think they are trying to say, there are some worrisome international developments, related to china, and that is causing them to reassess the growth outlook. i don't think they want to convey the idea that this is simply, equities are down 10%, we have to change policy. that is definitely not the message they want to send. at first, it seemed the
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consensus would move in september, now it seems closer to the end of the year, maybe december. but that is the time of the year when the quiddity usually dries up. is that something that folks are taking into consideration? michael: certainly, there are those concerns about your and liquidity. we have seen the fed do some pretty big actions in september. they began tapering in december, they cut to zero in december. , don't think december, per se -- the calendar configuration will preclude them from hiking. particularly because it happened at the middle of the month. i think that probably gives them enough time to do what they want to do without too much disruption. matt: aren't there some economic benefits to having interest rates come up off of the zero bound? we hear economist talk about a pricing mechanism that is wiped away with zero bound.
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it seems, obviously, people would be more inclined to say with rates higher. the prospect of interest rates rising would get people who are on the fence to go out and make purchases and borrow money. do you think that is a good idea? certainly that argument is out there. i don't think it has a lot of buy-in from the fomc. their view is high interest rate will slow the economy, which is kind of what is needed, if we continue to see on implement fall. even if there is a view that higher interest-rate rates are good thing in and of themselves, i don't think that is necessarily will subscribe to at the federal reserve. i don't think they see inherent benefit to it. mark: how does the fed and other fcc, cftc, respond to what has been going on in china, or do they? --this the something something the market has to sort out in self? michael: it is an issue of the
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market finding the right price. we are not seeing disruptions in funding markets, problems in credit. if that were to happen, that is a different story. right now, it is just best to let the markets find the price and not let the fed or any other agency come in here and say this is where equity prices should be. matt: what do you think, when we do see a rate hike eventually, about the trajectory of rate rises? i have heard a lot of people in the market say we will get to 2% by the beginning of 2018. does that sound in line with your estimates? michael: that would be a pretty pessimistic economic outcome, if that were to happen. i think initially we will see gradual pace of rate hikes consistent with what the fed is saying, but we have to keep in mind, the on a plummet rate has been plummeting for almost five years. unless that miraculously stops,
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i think the fed will have to push rates above 15% to slow the economy. mark: we all talk about how the markets here may react to a fed rate increase. will it have some are full effect on global markets, will they react negatively to any fed move? michael: quite likely. you could argue that is already happening in what we have seen in the last few days. most of us think it is driven by china. some of what we have seen over the last few weeks has been people considering fed moves and what that means for emerging markets in particular. the fed is largest central bank in the world, the most consequential, let's say. there is no way that what they do does not have a big influence on global markets. michael feroli, the chief u.s. economist from jpmorgan, thank you. matt: i am looking at the
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probability of a move. we saw the chart on the screen, the bloomberg screen. if you have a terminal and want to look. what you used to call of the function. 22%probability of a move is in the september meeting. still ahead, donald trump is a man with an opinion or two on the economy -- or three. he will be joining "all due respect." don't want to miss that interview coming up at 5:00 new york time. stay with us, the bloomberg market day continues in just a moment. ♪
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bloomberg market day. i matt miller with mark crumpton. stocks are bouncing back after six consecutive days in the red. julie hyman joins us with a look at action on wall street. julie: good afternoon. we have this bounceback today, just a question of how big it might be by the closing bell and whether, indeed, it will last. we are coming up from the lows of the session with all three averages up by more than 1%. take a look at the s&p 500 on an intraday basis. ,e were trending downwards although still rallying, and then bouncing in the past half hour. we will see what happens next. in terms of the worst performers today, those that are dragging down and creating some of that fade we are seeing -- transocean is one of them. the worst performing stock in the s&p 500, the world's top offshore rig operator. it says it plans to hold investor payouts and bid to million dollars of swiss francs
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for asset impairments. we have seen a decline in oil prices, of course. prior to this, the company had the second-highest dividend operators in the s&p 500. shares are down nearly 7%. another stock we are seeing wynnng is wtnn resorts -- resorts after all the trouble in china. an interesting graphic on the terminal from bloomberg intelligence that looks at the percentage of visitors to macau from china specifically, since is very reliant on china. about 70% of the visitors are from china and that percentage has been increasing over the past several years. this is an eight-year chart. finally, brown-forman, the maker of jack daniels, coming up with sales falling by 1%, missing analyst anticipations.
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stock is downhe by 2%. matt, have you been thinking less jack? matt: i have not been jerking that much jack lately because i have been doing rum. in the winter, i do bourbon. is that fair, is that normal? dark and stormy's in the summer? are some top stories. amazon is offering one hour delivery of wine, beer, and liquor in the u.s. for the first time. the program is limited to seattle for the time being. in london,y deliver where people need it most. job cuts are on the way at a finnish company that makes the mobile game angry birds. rovio plans to let go about a third of its workers. angry birds has been a smash hit with more than 2 billion downloads, but rovio has not been able to duplicate its success. that is a look at some of our
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matt: bay bridge. francisco, california on this wednesday, i am mark crumpton with matt miller. the hacking of ashley madison and the subsequent release of usernames could spell the name for avid life media, the company that owns the website. they have already been hit with lawsuits in texas, california, and canada, accusing it of failing to take proper cyber
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security precautions. those lawsuits are seeking class action status. matt: joining us from san francisco is cory johnson. it's pretty remarkable that inadequate cyber security could cost his company everything, but when you really stop and think about it, this is the one website that should be more secure than the pentagon's computers, right? cory: perhaps. adultery is a crime in 30 countries. what is interesting here is this really highlights how important cyber security is to every company. what is happening now, the aftermath, is the lawsuits begin. class-action lawsuits in missouri, texas, two in california. the biggest of them all is in canada where the parent company is based. the lawsuit there is seeking damages of $550 million, which could wipe ashley madison off the face of the earth.
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i think this points at the very same issues that we saw a raised when we had the hack of sony around the holidays. silly movie "the interview" lead north korea to attack sony, or so the reports said, ended up costing the president of sony pictures her job. it is these kinds of existential risks that cyber security poses. aside from ashley madison, let's leave the website out of the equation for the moment. what are other businesses thinking at this moment, if a as private, if you will, as ashley madison was, if that can happen to them, what about everybody else? isy: what we have learned some of the encryption types that they used were some of the best practices in the business, because it waswn
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such an alluring target. i mean that in every possible way. just as interesting for this, it shows you, the companies out there that have made cyber security a principal focus -- i have talked to cyber security experts who have used in the said decks -- jamie dimon that he would spend $200 million in protecting against cyber security attacks, only to have credit cards stolen. even companies that have spent big on this are finding themselves losing in the battle against the hackers, and this is what is driving not just the business of the cyber security defense companies but also the stocks. when you see stocks of companies , trading at an omer's multiples, these kinds of hacks and the attention they are getting are driving those businesses to contract with their clients in big ways. matt: are there other websites
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where people can go to if they want to have an affair since ashley madison has been shut down, any competition springing up? cory: craigslist is always there for you, matt miller, should you be so inclined. matt: it turns out about 95% of the people on there were men. and they paid $19 a month for a delete feature that did not delete their information whatsoever. why another example of cyber security is so big for any company. matt: have you had enough of me? i am leaving you, but i'm back in a half hour. mark: the bloomberg market day continues in just a moment. ♪
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terminal. hauling on world leaders to accelerate negotiations prior to a conference on climate change. calling on world leaders to accelerate negotiations prior to a conference on climate change, and they aim to reach a deal with more than 190 nations. its goal is to keep global warming from reaching dangerous 100 29 different stations in different markets have gone dark. the reason? a fight with sinclair network, who owns the stations, and it is over a dispute with cable channels that sinclair wants to buy. tom wheeler, the chairman of the federal communications commission, has sent word to talk things over. ford me return to production of the ronco suv, because the demand for trucks is booming here. bloomberg reports they would be
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made in wayne, michigan, and there are several small car models that may eventually be built in mexico. in colorado, james holmes has life in prisonto for the massacre at a movie theater. he was convicted of killing 12 people and wounding 70 others into house and 12. jurors rejected the insanity plea, but they could not agree on giving him the death penalty, and marcy borders, who became known as the dust lady, died of cancer. she was on the 81st floor of the world trade center when the first passenger jet crashed into the building. she found refuge in a nearby building, where the famous photograph was snapped. she was just 42 years old. those are your top stories this hour. coming up in the next half hour of "the bloomberg market day,"
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mont santa with an four-your quest to acquire a swiss ngenta, andaker, sy is technology behind the plunge in oil? predator,nother smaller lenders in states like ohio and rhode island, and regional banks are getting top executives from their biggest rivals with an ease and frequency unseen before. elizabeth wrote the story and joins us now from washington. elizabeth, what is driving this migration? elizabeth: we are seeing more and more examples of regional banks making big hires, people who came from larger wall street firms, and there are a few factors, and part of it is the regional banks themselves. than others are getting more aggressive about poaching talent from bigger
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firms. this has to do with, in some cases, there's nothing, new business line, and other instances, like the executive level, in particular. are changing to a rapidly changing environment with new regulations, new technology, and they need to fill management roles who have experience handling those things. they do not have that in their pipeline, so they are looking at larger firms. elizabeth, you spoke to quite a few senior level managers and bankers who have left and moved on to regional banks. what have they told you? a number: they cited of reasons for why they made the move. in some cases, executives were attracted to an opportunity to play hero in a turnaround story, to help build a business from the ground up, something that they did not see opportunities doing at a well-established firm, and in other cases, people
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cited cultural differences of working at a big firm. it can be more difficult to get things done and see an impact of your work, whereas at a smaller firm, you have better access to decision makers. you can see sort of the fruits of your work. more clearly. you and, i talked to asked a lot of people i spoke with about pay. no one admitted that that was the sole reason that they decided to make the move, but several did admit that if the pay package had not been competitive, they probably would not have made the switch. elizabeth, are the wall street banks looking over their shoulders? are they concerned about this? do they view it as a threat? elizabeth: i did not see it in and of itself as a huge threat, but it did lead to a number of challenges that wall street firms are grappling with, and another thing that i learned in talking with so many of these
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executives is many have come over from big firms, and they have also hired or brought over callings with them and have said that they will continue to do colleaguesght over with them, so that is, perhaps, a greater risk. you spoke about the regulatory environment. you were talking about how dodd-frank was involved for you is that at least partially responsible for this? elizabeth: it is something that the managers themselves and the top executives doing this hiring had. they needed this skill set.
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julie: we are seeing stocks making another rebound, and they are holding up pretty well. and we had an initial tip --dip in the market, and now things are coming back up, now more than 2%. the movement just now really demonstrates the velocity of the movement that we have seen recently, so take a look at the , andn an intraday business i will talk about what i mean. right at the opening bell, we saw a big surge in stocks with the s&p 500 up sharply, and then we faded, and this is coming quickly. and the for example, s&p cutting gains by about half, and then we fell to the low in the session, for quickly snapping back, and this has been really characteristic of what we have seen of late, so where do we go from here? citigroup, one person sees a good sign that dividend
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yields in stocks are higher than yields on bonds right now. take a look at our bloomberg terminal. right now, it stands at two 2.25%, and the other times we have seen the white line go above the orange, to put it in simple terms, that has good a -- been a good period for stocks to follow. let's take a look at the 10-year, shall we? 2.16% is the yield today. we had durable goods orders coming in at her. we are seeing money flowing out of treasuries, pushing those yields higher. this for the first time since april, so, again, quick movesthat we are seeing, of great magnitude, as well.
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let's take a look at the dollar, as well. similar to what we're seeing in treasuries. this rally, a recovery is what you can call it, are helped by durable goods and some of the other elements, and bill dudley of the new york federal reserve also saying that the september liftoff is looking less likely, although he hedged and said it will depend on the data. as we get closer, the fed will they are doing next, and we are seeing the dollar up versus a basket of currencies, and i want to check on this. we have seen a resumption of the declines, although in the case of gold, it has never really recovered much, even with the stocks. we have the weekly inventories data in the u.s., and even though we saw a drive down in inventories, we saw a tilt in gasoline and distillate -- we saw a build in gasoline and distillate, and that is a worrying sign of demand for
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those following the oil market, and you can see futures continuing to trend lower as we saw that china selloff overnight also continue. mark? markets" julieg hyman, thank you. we have this report from hong kong. rideter: a roller coaster again for chinese mainland investors, stocks fluctuated widely on when they as investors weigh the impact of lower interest rates on the economy, and it was hard to keep up with the shanghai composite, which after risingver 1% as much as 4.3% at one point during the session and falling 3.9% earlier. chinese equities have lost $5 trillion or have their values mid-june. and a lot more update. on both stocks rallied the topix and the nikkei 225,
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biggestack after their change since 2011. the world's biggest oil services field provider is getting bigger, schlumberger's deal valued at a 56% premium to premium price on friday, a deal that provides greater one-stop shopping for oil drillers, and walmart said it will stop selling the lee terry style weapons like a rifle this fall, -- selling military style weapons this fall. they say the demand for the firearms is declining, and they plan to replace these with other types of rivals, like shotguns other hunting merchandise,
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and shares of abercrombie & fitch are sorry after they posted a surprise increase, with sales also better than expected. abercrombie other has been retog since their longtime ceo left in december, and kraft heinz is recalling turkey bacon products. the reason? they may be unsafe and could spoil before the best used by date. the federal government says it has received reports of people getting sick after eating the turkey bacon. and that is a look at some of the stories we are following. another company we are following, monsanto. it announced it would stop its ngenta, andd for sy the stock is now trading down 13%, and let's bring in our m&a reporter, ed hammond, to give us the details. why did monsanto take this off
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the table, ed? ed: probably in the last three or four days, it is quite a significant number, putting the value of the company at about 40 $6.5 billion, and it also crucially increased the amount that they were willing to pay, bringing the deal from $2 billion them and the stock is now trading down 13%, and let's bring in our m&a reporter, ed hammond, to give us the details. why did monsanto take this off a $3 billion, which was supposed to address one of syngenta'biggest concerns. mark: we are talking about a $47 billion bid. why was that not enough? i think monsanto clearly thought it was enough, because they increased it over their original bid. we thought it was somewhere around 400 45 swiss franc per share, and then they bumped it up to 470. they would have had some huge syndgenta -- syngen ta were just not sellers.
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mark: how does he sell the version to shareholders? i would think they are not happy right now. the market is reacting badly. a reallyng to have hard job. this is a company that has consistently underperformed, with thenly done badly expectations of results. how does he deliver on a standalone plan? the question now is do they come out and do some acquisition of their own? they have a business that is somewhat slightly subscale. is about thenow space. that the deal is not going to happen, what is the status? what is the future of both companies? ed: the third time on center tried to do this deal, for sure the second.
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it remains a possibility that monsanto will come back in another six months or another year and have another run at syngenta, and a lot of that depends on how well syngenta does in the long-term. they perhaps were going to overpay for this asset. to me aboutlk currency moves and also lower crop prices. how did that factor into what happened or what did not happen? i think the currency moves were an initial point of due toion for syngenta, the relative weakness of the swiss franc versus the u.s. dollar, thinking this was somewhat opportunistic. this was somewhat ironed out between the two companies with the antitrust risk. and by far not my strong point, but i think from the monsanto
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view, they felt if they could do this integration, , they the agrochemicals could increase the amount of money they were making with the relationship with farmers. mark: ed hammond joining us on the monsanto -- monsanto-syngenta story, thanks. and we had a story today on "market makers." reporter: we have seen a lot of companies starting to come into positions, and if you look at cash flow with reasonable market positions, those are the sorts of businesses that tend to perform quite well through this type of so there aretion, pockets of value emerging.
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do you see the value, if i may interrupt? anne: given the degree of what we have seen, the emerging market world, for example. anchor: so aberdeen is buying in emerging markets? we continue to top up on stocks rethink that have been overcorrected and this rout that we have had. we see stocks at 10 or 12 times multiples, stocks that are at par with the outflows we saw in 2008, and yet the fundamentals do not support that degree of slow down and that degree of pain in the financial system, so we think and that respect, that is probably overdone. that does not mean you will see a correction. periods of volatility can
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go on for a long time, but if you are a long-term investor, it means you can start to look and examine what is out there that potential becomes more attractive. mark: anne richards of aberdeen peaking earlier on bloomberg. have you thought about writing a book? becoming a self published author has become easier than ever, and blurb, andr from take a look at your screen. the dow jones industrials are up, and the nasdaq and s&p 500, they are higher, as well. we will be right back. ♪
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rb is a company that provides tools for authors to design and print and distribute their books with more flexibility and lower cost than traditional publishing, and the ceo describes how the company has progressed from small to big. eileen: blurb is a self-publishing platform that allows anyone with five dollars and access to a browser to be published. i am a photographer and worked for kodak for many years, so i asked to have a photograph taken, and i thought i could spend the rest of my life custom printing, or i could make a book. can that be? the more i looked at the publishing industry model coming from the technology and web and of it, i've got this is crazy. c's forers are like v.
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everys, and we met in coffeehouse, and we thought how can we build a tool that is free that allows people to lay out their book and design their books through printing, through shipping, through distribution, and we went out and raised a couple million dollars to get the party started. we got lucky. 2006, and that was when sales of digital cameras surpassed those of film started the we first high-end photography books, and then everybody wanted their books to look as good as those people. the architecture industry discovered it, everyone from ralph lauren to tiffany started making books, and now this is a very big category for us. now, more recently authors who are looking to distribute their books and profit from their
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books are finding their way to our door. the challenge here is how do you get discovered? for self-publishing, people are very interested in e-books. we have about 3000 or 4000 titles available for sale at the amazon bookstore. our relationship with apple started us down the path with wening up distribution, and have a widget called personal storefront that allows you to put your book on your blog, your facebook page, your wherever, and today, we have shipped more than 8 million books. we have a couple million authors and bookmakers, and our peak volumes, we will see a new title , over our servers every 2.1 seconds. we have a big vision. everybody in the world should be in ato publish their book beautifully printed e-book, whether it is just a personal expression or they want to make a time of money. it is all good. and that was the founder
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and ceo of blurb. now, let's look at the top stories. the urging of joe biden to enter the white house will have a presence in all 50's dates, edit organization called draft biden says more than 200 50,000 people have signed on, and marco rubio says donald trump not be the party nominee. he made the comments at a rally in new hampshire. speaking of donald trump, the residential front runner, he will be a guest today on "with all due respect open -- "with all due respect" today. "bloombergs on market day." ♪
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can they hold on for a rally and avoid an afternoon swoon? matt: schlumberger is buying cameron international. is it a sign that the oil has hit bottom? and we will hear how the buffalo wild wings's ceo is taking a very american philosophy around the world. good afternoon. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am mark renton, here with matt miller. matt: a look at stocks. points,rising over 1900 a gain of 40 points, the dow jones putting up a gain of 342 points, and we are looking at basically
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