stocks commodities and others rebound after the world of sbs biggest economy grew more than previously expected. we all have to follow extreme the carefully the situation. and we will have to make the maximum authority for the money issue. >> in an exclusive interview, french economy minister says he will keep an eye on the slowdown. but it will not threaten france's o economy. exclusive, elections are not the way forward for the

nation's $86 billion euro bailout. >> we cannot be having elections. the government could have tried in november for election. anna: good morning to my happy friday. welcome to the show. let's get you up to speed on the market movement that you may have missed overnight. straight to the u.s. close, what a rally. up more than 6% over the past couple of days. they closed up almost 2.5%. gdpreason is all about u.s. coming in stronger-than-expected. beating every single prediction from every economist we spoke to a bloomberg. rallyinghe dow jones

there. take a look at treasuries, i have them on my screen for you. we are seeing a bit of a move yieldsom the assets, therefore rising pushing higher on 10-year debt. there is feeding into this the fact that china is pumping up its own market. also selling out of u.s. treasury. supporting the own currency, buying up yuan. oil really on a tear at the moment. as you will see, up half a percentage point. traded in the u.s. up 1.3%. we really are seeing oil the biggest rally in six years. that was yesterday, despite more than 10%. since april. the first time we saw climb and nine weeks. for a take on what is happening in asian right now, how the green is filling the screen, let's head out to asia. juliet is standing by hong kong. we are certainly starting to see

a rally from the losses. juliet: absolutely, caroline. py friday. as you can see buying across the board. i want to show you in particular japan, it is up more than 3% as it heads into its last hour of trade. weakening, also making stocks more attractive. also some inflation nowhere near the 2% target the bank had. it is looking to give investors perhaps hope for more monetary hope. a lot of buying debt in there. the shanghai composite up by almost 2%. we have gains all across the region. taiwan looking like a standout, up by 2.5%. australia is a little bit flat, that is due to some weakness from the banks and the telcos in

the midst of the reporting season. this is a picture at the moment. let's look at the oil and gas stocks, up by more than 6.2%. that is essentially what you are seeing in asia. big gains coming through from the gas stocks in the oil, on the fact that we do see crude rebound. as you mentioned, they are both contracts. i also want to look at the yuan, as you mentioned, it has strengthened. it is up by 2.1% against the u.s. dollar. and it is on track for its biggest gain since april. next week, we have that military parade in china. a lot of analysts saying that the central bank really does not want anything to rain on the parade. that is why we have seen this intervention and currency markets also, efforts to try to stem the equity rout. a big comeback in emerging markets. joining in that buying that we are seeing across asia. airline question mark caroline:

china stepping in. not wanting to rain on their parade. that brings us to our twitter question of the day. china, propping up the stocks , is this a good or bad thing? the move to a more open market, the more freedom, the devaluation that the yuan stated. but because of the sensational move that we see suddenly moving in, buying up of equities, all propping up because of the september 3 that is happening -- the celebration that is happening. should they even be stepping in question mark tweet me/ . a smoker closer to home. france's economy minister has become the architect of president francois hollande's performance. this is within a year of having a position. in a bloomberg exclusive e-book to caroline.

let's go live to her now. is he concerned about the china slowdown, you must've asked him about the markets at the moment question mark caroline: the recoveries, the answer is no according to him. he thinks that the stock market has actually overreacted, he is confident that the french companies will continue to do business with china. he says that the french exports to china actually represent only 0.7% of gdp. which is less than most of the neighbors. that there is a shot this week. >> i think we have indeed a shock. china, we had basically market prices. thenow what we can see,

we had currency, probably another raising of the market the beginning of this week. but now, third, when you look at the figures -- when you compare with the asian crisis of the 90's, and the consequences on the french economy, it should be believed. caroline: the chinese slowdown will have limited impact according to emmanuelle. if you look at the french growth, it was 0% in the second quarter. 0.7 in the first quarter. it is tooish growth, early to say whether the european central bank will have to intervene. he thinks that the qe has been delivering. and regarding the fed, he doesn't respect the federal reserve to raise interest rates before december.

caroline: give us a sense of how he is living up to the expectation, it is exactly one year since he became the economy minister. he promised a lot to business. how are the plans going question ? caroline: he is seen as the young, dynamic person. he is 37 years old. ctually a year ago he was compared to the french kennedy. during a speech to the community in france yesterday before my interview, he used some references to kennedy. he said do not ask yourself what your country can do, ask yourself what you can do for our economy. if you look at the past 12 months and what he has achieved, he has achieved the macro seeingy low -- which is some sectors liberalizing.

he is also allowing more shops to open on sundays. but of course, i had to ask him what he thinks about those who say france does not go fast enough. here is his response. >> the fact that we are responding, we are moving. the question is about the base, the magnetism, and the community. limited ahink we and series of very important reforms. we raise it by 2.5%. second, competitiveness. we will reduce by two percentage points, corporate costs and charges. third am a sensible reform. on the market, that the lows are pushed. and we are demanding that now.

table fromext on the reform.as the labor that is what every executive is waiting for, he does not want to choose between reforming the unemployment benefits and reforming hirings and firings. what does he want to do was to ? before the end of the year. .aroline: great work a wonderful exclusive for us. sticking with europe, greece is facing the process of two election this year. unless there is an outright majority after next month's vote. it comes after alexis tsipras rolled out forming a coalition with those who are pro-european. >> we should not be having elections. the government could have try first and september, october, november.

now, how do already disillusioned voters feel about the prospect of a second election after this. you have to remind ourselves that this is a third time they're going to the ballot box this year. >> that is true. keep in mind that they did not want to go to the elections. in the first place, this time around -- having consecutive once, it does not bode well with the greek people. enable people after what the prime and set on wednesday. that he will not leave the unit y government. if he keeps his word this time around, this would make him the -lived figure in modern greek politics. >> i'm very happy that i'm welcoming, because i think the

handing over of the process in the office has been done in the best institutional way possible. happyly, i am very because i welcomed the first woman prime minister in the history of the greek democracy. caroline: give us a sense of what the polls look like at the moment, we are hearing from alexis tsipras there. is it torn at the moment? murkyexpect a messy, coalition to be formed afterwards? a very liquid environment, with voters going from one place to the other. there is the first opinion poll in a greek newspaper today. it shows that undecided voters are the majority of the greek ovulation at the moment. the narrative is down to 3.5%. we will get a fresh batch of premium polls as we can. what we understand at the

moment, from the ongoing opinion polls, three main things. first, it is going to be a close battle between first-place in the democracy. second, that the platform under the popular unity party does not have a dynamic that they wanted to. number three, it is way to be a very close battle for third place area so the king maker could be just about anybody. >> thank you very much for your graciousness in the delivery of your duties. it progress in such a way that i was asked to take an honorary role in the interim government to carry out the upcoming elections according to the constitution. the duties of the interim government are to carry out the upcoming election with integrity. however, in the way things progress, i think this

government will have to deal with crucial issues -- such as migration. caroline: you are seeing the country now having its first prim female front minister. talk to us tnow about the economy. the second reading, before the first, came as a surprise. showing contraction, otherwise, we saw growth. are we expecting the second round of readings to back that up? surprise, whene you expect 5% contraction and you get an expansion, you roll your eyes. but you have to keep in mind that july, the amount of capital controls and all of the responsibility and the full deterioration of the greek economy is not in those numbers. if you recall, during the second half of june, greeks went on a shopping spree.

they even went forward and paid all their taxes. anything to get their cash out of the bank. this really elevated the numbers a bit. caroline: we will keep a close eye on that. it is 10 a.m. london time. thank you very much, indeed. in athens, that exclusive interview with the leader of the party. in addition to greek gdp, we will also get a gauge on growth and the swiss and u.k. economy. we will bring you the numbers as they break, swiss second quarter's are out in 30 minutes. around 9:30 a.m. that is when we get gdp. coming up on the show, a report from the front lines of jackson hole summit. we will hear what the president said on the latest round of global market volatility. stay with us. ♪

caroline: welcome back, it is six 118 in london. i'm here with the stories me to know this morning. asian stocks have extended gains into a third day. support for his beleaguered equity market and the u.s. number bolstered the appetite for riskier assets. the pacific index is heading for its biggest rally since 2011. economy minister marcon threatened to loosen the labor laws in the run-up to the election. in an exquisite interview with bloomberg, he said the labor market would be simpler and more flexible. with lagging growth and joblessness near record high, he says the country has little choice but to press ahead with reforms. and the u.k. office of national statistics published it second estimates for gdp at 9:30 london

time. insight into exactly where everyone spends their money. meanwhile, new data from gsk indicates consumer confidence matched a 15 year high this month. now the federal reserve bank of kansas city began his annual policy in jackson hole, wyoming. it's get to brendan for an update on the issues that are looming at this year's conference. brendan: the question this year, will the fed raise the fund rate in september? it is consistently said it is date-dependent. when i keep hearing people say, what data? one piece of data is volatility, what we have seen over the markets. we talked to esther george. this is what she said about paying attention to the markets. esther: we should expect volatility from time to time. we are in a. of some uncertainty.

questions about china, global growth. i think we should expect some volatility. what it means for monetary policy, i think it is not yet clear. it is a convocation, something we watch, but i'm not ready to say it has a particularly long-term effect. brendan: there is the economic data from the economic analysis bureau in washington, d.c. well above everybody's estimates. that is a real piece the fed pays attention to. jackson hole is a group that is staging a counter conference. they are asking who's recovery is it? unappointed rate for everyone in america, particularly minority communities. who are you paying attention to when you talk about raising the rate? in jackson hole, brendan greeley.

caroline: the u.s. reporting gdp figures. the u.k. also reporting, for let's kick off with you. 3.7%, exceeding every projection we had from economist. were you surprised? how does it make you feel about potential rate hikes or delays as the case may be later this year? >> i think there is enough and that data to get out of position. i actually think there has been enough volatility, not concern over the last 2-3 weeks subsequent to the exchange rate policy in china to enable the fed the point to data points that will allow them to because his and delay from september to december. they really want to see more of the underutilization going on in the u.s. labor market.

to see if that is being used up. china will go further with that devaluation, and what impacts that will have on prices in the u.s.? jamiene: give us a sense what we are seeing in the u.k., as well. we are not expecting great change in the second reading. but overall, it is steady as she goes. we should not be worried about the volatility in china. >> pretty much. what we are expecting is a gentle slowdown in momentum and growth into the second half of the year. that is still above trend growth. it means that slack is being taken up, the market will continue tightening. that will defer the interest rate increase. caroline: we are potentially seeing the u.s. bond to push back until december. on wednesday, we saw a galvanizing of the market rally at the moment by saying there is

less compelling evidence to have a rate hike in september. what do we do with the market at the moment? what we expect from the u.s. dollar? when we see a pushing out of expectations in the rate hike, the market should see assets in vogue. jamie: it is undoubtedly the case that dudley's m comments are alive and well. where that moves in terms of the very short term trading today, you are going to have to wait until the weekend in jackson hole to get a sense of whether that is a personally help view of mr. dudley. or whether the fed more broadly see this as a turning point for the world economy. and just want to hold the ammunition back. caroline: mark is going to be speaking at some point. what do you think he will be viewing from the gdp data?

what they want to wait until after the u.s. questio.? >> the domestic economy justifies an immediate or near-term increase. but the world economy is not playing ball. and i think it may be a bit emasculating for the bankers and the u.k. in the u.s. that they are not in charge of their own destiny in terms of monetary policy. there are things going on elsewhere in the world that will dictate that timetable. it will be interesting to see whether mark pays attention, and how he interprets it. it is a first time since he is spoken since china. jamie, how will the data feed into the rate rise? jaime: i think it is true in both the u.k. and the u.s. that whenever the rate increase comes, it will be well signal. that they will generate uncertainty. so we are looking at, like you

were looking at the speeches, some indicators of the broader sense and the fed. moment, we see a fairly quick turnaround in the way they are being communicated. september is very unlikely, coming less likely. december much more likely. we are seeing a delay in the u.k. caroline: are you agreeing? >> i do. but we have to see wage inflation continue in the u.k.. if you.k. it is really late for market pointing to the increase in prices. there is little evidence elsewhere that is important to deflation. deflation on more oil and the devaluation in asia. that has big implications or the number. and this is really interesting. in the court of a public

opinion, it is difficult. caroline: returning to you. economistay, chief a bloomberg intelligence. more coming up here, in a moment. ♪

welcome back, it is 6:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks have extended gains into a third day. the support for the beleaguered equity market and the strong u.s. growth number bolstered investor appetite for riskier assets. the asia-pacific index is headed for its biggest three-day rally since 2011. retracing losses earlier in the week. former greek prime minister toxis tsipras's refusal operate could force voters back to the ballot. that is coming from several

people. he is a leader of the party. when an exclusiv interview with with bloomberg, there could be more elections he says. google has ridiculed the antitrust demand in the united kingdom, saying they are peculiar and problematic. they say the company is prioritizing its own shopping service. google has rejected the accusation and insist it has provided evidence to review them. let's check in on what is moving at the markets. give us a sense of what you are watching, pretty phenomenal bounce back when you look at the chinese shares this morning. >> absolutely, caroline. i am focusing on oil at the moment. we have seen a rebound. oilerday what we saw was rising the most in six years, as we saw that u.s. gdp beat the forecast. it is now heading for its biggest weekly gain since april.

we also had crude stockpiles in the u.s. actually declined last week. that has kind of help to bounce back. and basically, it means we are seeing a rebound in sustained over that for he dollars a barrel. $45 a has as to above barrel. on monday, we saw prices fall to their lowest level since 2009. a big story to look at, rebounding with those asian shares. but i also want to talk about the euro. all of this market turmoil, the euro has emerged as a safe haven currency. it is actually moving in the opposite direction of the s&p 500, by the most in a decade. and it has also appreciated against all of its peers in the last three months. including traditional safe haven currencies like the swiss franc and the yen.

we are seeing this pullout of emerging markets, demand has increased for the euro. looking like a bit of a haven, caroline. caroline: thank you very much, indeed. while global assets from asian stocks and commodities are rallying after a tumultuous week, let us not forget the from august 11. shanghai composite of course, you know the selloff that is happened in the markets. 26% 20%, they were down at one point. it was wiped out even more -- down almost 10%. coming after those lows, check out the volatility. it doubled. up more than 113%. and of course we know the ramifications to the malaysian currency. spiking up at record lows.

it is falling. and commodities, lest we forget how they play into copper and the chinese demand. really sending the commodity index to the lowest in 16 years. we have already debated this somewhat with our guest in the studio. i want to get investors take. joining us live in singapore, is jim rogers. opinionant to get your on what happened in china? august 11, we certainly saw the yuyan violation. the chinese currency is down lesson 3%. the open it up to the markets, it went 1% the next day. now it is up. that is not in violation, you work for bloomberg. you should know better than that. they move, euro, yuan

all the time. the imf and the american government have insisted that they let them set the market rate. now they are doing that. how can you call that a devaluation? caroline: they allow the market to have an active role. does it worry you that we suddenly have the chinese government playing back into the markets? we see them buying up equities, all ahead of these particular celebrations coming september 3. are we meant to interpret it is pro-or anti-market? jim: that is a different question from devaluation. that we can talk about. market went down 25% in a week. you are saying they were controlling the market? it went down and had a huge collapse last week. now it is rallying of course. they said they were not going to step in and control the market anymore. i have no idea what is going on. i bought some chairs because they collapsed. not because of the chinese

government or anybody else. caroline: i want to bring in our other guests. we are hearing that it is not a devaluation. you have summoned to respond to? >> jim is right in terms of the short-term, it was only a small part of the appreciation we have seen in the yuan in recent months. it signifies the start of china being prepared to devalue and compete with the asian partners, but also the eurozone, in export recovery. ending out of the slowdown through a weaker currency. that is why we talk about devaluation, they anticipate this is the first of many moves to reflate. caroline: jim, do you agree? jim: i find it absurd to be complete honest. they're letting the market set the rate. that is what the imf is insisting on for years. the u.s. government has been insisting for years that they

let the market determine it. now they are doing it. has japan been devaluing question mark has euro been devaluing? i don't quite understand these terms, i have been investing in currencies or decades. i never heard such absurd talk. it is would argue that loosening the value of both the yen and the euro to allow those economies to do recovery. and the question is, the whole world can not devalue. and that is what in my view is weighing on sentiment across the market. and if china is going to have that as a core tenet of their economic policy, there are worries to eurozone policymakers. and i would be worried fire in japan. jim: that is a different point. a very good point, i cannot bear what the japanese are doing. he is destroying the currency, ashas said he will spend

much money as he has to in order to drive down the value of the yen. that is devaluation. the euro is the head of the bank, and they will do whatever it takes. that is devaluation and market manipulation. it has been the second strongest currency for a long time. maybe they are going to devalue someday. they're not doing it now. caroline: you do not think this is a signal of things to come. do you expect it to remain where it is, in violation, or depreciation as we see the market take its role? jim: depreciation is a much better work. i own a lot of that currency. i would certainly expect more fluctuations now. there will be times when people want to dump it. maybe even me. but i am not a dumper at the moment. and i suspect in the world conditions in the next year, we will see huge fluctuations in currency. and you are going to see the largest currency position in the

u.s. dollar on the long side. because there is more turmoil coming. and many people will flee to what they think is a safe haven. the u.s. dollar is not a safe haven. but people think it is. so they have to put money there. that is why my largest position is the u.s. dollar on the long side. caroline: are you expecting the federal reserve to raise the rate? jim: i do not pay too much attention to the federal reserve. i know you have to because you are a journalist. market is what determines interest rate. the federal reserve historically just follows the market. they get a lot of pr, but they follow the market. rates were going up, they come down in the last 2-3 weeks with a turmoil. i suspect you see rates going back up soon as the market recovers. and the federal reserve will follow along, probably in september, westerly by the end of the year. caroline: i will bring our bloomberg intelligence guest, as well. jamie, give me a sense that you

think this is storm in a teacup. jamie: a lot of the movement in the chair prices in china has been speculative position. it should be contained to china, and it is not why they that is happen. what we are seeing a broader markets is a feeling that maybe growth might be slowing a little in china, and because a lot of our larger firms have sources in emerging markets, that affects valuation. caroline: i know you have been traveling in china. you have a book you previously wrote "a bull in china." are you still one? jim: yes, i bought shares in the most recent collapse. whenever the collapse, i try to buy them. i would have to say that what jamie said was fairly accurate. this is a bit of that. the american stock market is down more than the chinese market.

people should be blaming this on america and they have to find someone to blame. caroline: i want to give an opportunity to simon coming back to you, should we be as buoyant as the u.s. dollar being a haven? is of the only way up? simon: the dollar is a haven because of the growth rate -- 3.7% yesterday. and iainst a number, would be interested whether he believes the china economy is going at 7%. if you take the suggestion on how you measure economic output, it is closer to 3%. and i think it is though concerns over the accuracy of the data which lead to people being cautious. on first pass, jim is right. there is still huge economic potential given the size of the labor market. and the economic output in the industry, but if you are and

certain of the data, you are very concerned about some of the high valuations post the most recent rally in the first of the year. caroline: economists will be worried. jim, as investor, are you worried? jim: simon, i do not pay much attention to government data. i have been investigating for decades. i know they all live. america constantly says there is no inflation, although everyone who shops know there has been. do not pay attention to the government. if you pay attention to government figures to guide investments, you are not going to make a lot of money. you will go broke. i have no idea whether china is going 7% or 1%. it doesn't matter. that is not how i am best. if i find goodbyes, i buy them. every time i go to china, i do know if something has grown. i have been going there for 31 years. if something has happened there and continues to happen there. caroline: what have you bought? what are the stocks we should be eyeing? jim: i bought basically, there

in a big economic momentum 2013 the chinese said we are going to put our efforts for the next 10-20 years. i have been buying stocks in those industries. it is a public record. anybody can get it. it is not a secret. i have been buying things in pollution control, railroads, finance. you can go to bloomberg and find it. caroline: what about commodities at the moment? where do you feel the bounceback in copper, the best growth in oil in several years and one day. is it time to get back into commodities question mark i know you analyzes market a lot. jim: i have not bought any because i have been doing other things. traveling around china, i bought a few shares. time that the market had a big collapse. they had the debt boundm and went back to check the lows. i suspect that we are in the

process of making the second bottom. testing the second bottom. we will make the low now. maybe we have made for all i know. but certainly for too much longer, because the fundamentals continue to get better for oil. reserves are continuing to decline. we are using more than we have discovered, except for fracking. but they cannot make much money at these prices, they will find out soon enough. so the fundamental for oil continues to get better. caroline: this is huge. jim rogers, chairman of rogers holding. great have ang simon here. question of the day, china propping up stocks? good or bad>> ? tweet me @carolinehydetv. you can catch up with a special edition midday at 4 p.m. and

9:30 p.m. and coming up on countdown, we will find out how the slowdown in china and the swiss franc is impacting the economy. second quarter gdp is coming, stay tuned. we are back after this break. #very shortly. numbers coming very shortly. ♪

caroline: welcome back, it is 6:48 in london. we just had some breaking news out of switzerland. gdp figures better than expected. it is affecting the cycle already. >> what a surprise on the upside. 4.2% growth in the second quarter. economists had been expecting a contraction. that means that switzerland has avoided a recession, and i want to show you actually the chart of the euro versus the swiss franc. this is what happened when that cap was lifted in january.

we saw a spike against the euro, we have come down since then. 11% against the euro since then. we have had the euro acting as a safe haven currency through the turmoil. economists were thinking we would see a move in the third quarter. we will see if that will be revised now going forward, giving this surprisingly good number today. there could be risks from china,, from the watch markers. some get a quarter of revenues from china. exporting is the key thing to look at. back to you. caroline: thank you. interestingly, playing into that watch chinese swiss exports off the cliff.

and with the devaluation of the currency, they can be playing into that further. there is another player in the market that sent emerging assets to multitrillion dollar routs. septembery signaled a increase was totally in doubt. but not off the table. gives us a look at the volatility. >> you cannot be the great house in a fluid neighborhood and ignore the neighborhood. so the fed will look at the rest of the world, it will not want to add to financial instability. and i think because of that, the fed will wait until december. esther: we should expect volatility from time to time. we are in a. period of some uncertain see, questions about china, questions about global growth.

and so i think we should expect some volatility. what it means for monetary policy, i think it is not yet clear. it is a convocation, something we watch. but i am not ready to say it has some regular long-term effect. we have mark joining us and tim from bloomberg.com. thank you for getting involved. mark, tell us what has happened this week in the emerging markets. tentatively starting to buy? with gdp figures looking stronger in the u.s.? >> i think the underperformance of macro markets has been the scene. there is probably more to run. and at the moment, we're seeing a capitulation to a part of that -- that is the growth story element. we are in the process of seeing a bottom there.

but the pain for emerging markets is not at the end. we still need to see reaction to the first fed hike, when that comes. september or next year. i think the markets will be nervous and unstable until then. caroline: how have you been viewing the likes of malaysia? that all of these currencies at record lows over the dollar, is the dollar back in vouge? >> you are dusting off the textbooks of the late 90's. looking parallel this time, i think the interesting parallel we are seeing is that you have a real dichotomy emerging between the economies that are benefiting from commodity prices depreciation. you see the see the u.k. in the u.s. in terms of consumer confidence at a record high -- 15 years in the u.k. near those levels in the red states. commodity dependent in terms of revenues and currency, they have

borrowed extremely huge amounts in u.s. dollars. and they have to service those debts going forward. you are right in terms of that first rate hike really testing the sensitivity of those debt burdens. that may well be one of those distractions. caroline: was malaysia picked out because of its exposure to oil and metals? >> malaysia have political problems, several problems at once. i completely agree with simon that the big issue going forward is that we are differentiating in emerging markets going forward. everything is selling off. we might have more of that. but the next will be differentiating between the good and bad stories. the commodities will get affected. the parallels with the late 90's fall down a bit particularly in asia, debt levels are so much lower. malaysia is more sensitive than others because it is an oil exporter. but even malaysia has larger

reserves and debt. philippines has much lower debt and growth is good. asia is one of the less sensitive regions now. the regions that are sensitive are the oil exporters, and that is where they were not allowing for sustained depressed prices. i know other places like africa and brazil are in great pain. they will continue to be. but they had trends in metals to adjust to it. it has come in the last year, and it doesn't look like it will bounce back quickly. nigeria is vulnerable, russia is horrible. but the story is in asia. caroline: we have a great story out there on bloomberg.com. the the story is all about flight from emerging markets and try to quantify that. the report today is talking about $4.5 billion leaving emerging markets this month, the most since the collapse of lehman brothers. caroline: pulling out the funds,

whether it be asset class? tim: run for the door. caroline: the numbers have been quite phenomenal. at one point they were estimating a trillion dollars have been wiped out. a phenomenal move. oil and the moment, opec strategy, is it working? tim: that is a big question. looking forward to 2016, the forecast is that production from non-opec countries will decline by 200,000 barrels a day. opec is going to be regaining market share going forward. yes, there is pain in the markets. but it looks like going forward, the strategy is working. and the obituary of opec has been written too many times. caroline: are we at the bottom for world commodities? 8000t with iran bringing

barrels a day on the world market. the story remains the supply side glut, with demand continuously undershooting across the world. so, i think we are going to test much lower points than what we are currently at. i think 30 is a realistic target, and in six months forward from here, the question is whether opec and collectively get to a position where saudi arabia -- the big swing producers -- are prepared to take physical pain, revenue pain in order to return that is more sustainable for a lot of the members'budgets. caroline: thank you very much. it has been great having the panel. tim, mark, staying with us is simon french. now to stay with us throughout the next hour. coming up, more of our exclusive interview with the french economy minister.

including his thoughts on potentially the future of china.. when he returned. we are back after the short break, we going much more after the china rout. ♪

caroline: recession. -- thanks to limit consumption. relief rally. asian stocks and commodities and u.s. equities rebound. the world's biggest economy grew more than expected. ♪ thee all have to follow situation. authoritieschinese to monitor the situation. caroline: focus on france. in a exclusive interview, he will keep an eye on china's slowdown but it will not

threaten france's recovery. ♪ welcome to "countdown." i am caroline hyde. it is some neglect a.m. here in the u k here are the market moves you may have moved -- you may have missed. we are seeing 2.5% being added to the s&p 500. see movesrting to back in as we saw growth in gdp. boosting every single expectation we have looked at. we see commodities rebounding, as we start to see buoyancy being added to china. supporting the bloomberg commodity index. crude starting to rebound, 1.8% higher. in the first time, we are seeing it grow up on the week.

we have had nine straight weeks of decline. this is been the best week for oil since april. let's check in on the swiss franc. avid here. are starting to see -- we are starting to see the dollar buying fewer swissie's. the economy doing better than expected. we are starting to see growth. many thought the economy would fall into deterioration. outthey managed to pull it with consumer spending, despite the swiss exports, particularly watches. let's head out to asia on that note. let's focus in on what is happening on stocks. you got a full roundup. nejra: -- >> it looks like a

strong vision to roundup the week. and stocks overnight china's efforts to prop up the , and thattock market jump in the oil price really helping out some of the energy producers. 3%,shanghai composite up by going the same way as other markets. it is not doing its own thing. 1.4%.ng seng up taiwan having a strong day. up 2.5%. south korea, japan, australia, all looking good. a bit of a switch up. game.lia is limiting its on the nikkeis 225. at the percent gain as it closes this afternoon. wet is due to a big gain

have seen coming through in some of those energy -- the yuan making stocks more attractive particularly for foreign investors. here are some of the stocks we have been watching in the asian region. in japan, sharp having a strong fission. it is considering various options to structure its lcd business. miguel is aace, san philippine-based company doing inl on chatter, that it is talks with telstra and australia. very stronge of the oil players. you can see the yuan coming through on that oil price which is benefiting the equity markets here in asia. caroline? caroline: think you very much. -- thank you very much. let's check in on our twitter

question of the day. chinaou you think of popping up at stocks? good or bad? was letting the market act more vigorously in china. letting the hand of the market lay more freely. when it comes to the military celebrating the 70th anniversary of the world war ii victory over japan, suddenly they are bolstering the market again. is this a good or bad thing? tweet me. let's bring it closer to home to europe. finance youngest minister has become the architect of economic reforms. this within a year of holding the position. in a bloomberg exclusive look -- exclusive, he spoke to kerley and conan that she spoke to caroline: hemon -- has been in position for one

year. resonate in the business community, just as the prime minister set a year ago. gotaid yesterday now you've the proof of love. he was referring to his activity which just past in july. -- heated debate in parliament. it had to be fought through element in july. i asked what exactly has been achieved? everybody -- the fact that we are reforming and moving. the question is about the base, magnitude and the continuity. we have discovered a very important reform. [indiscernible]

second, competitiveness. points reduce by two gdp . third, reform. --labor market [indiscernible] that we are demanding now. we will open reforms. i want to convey [indiscernible] regardingill open today's labor market. make it simple and more adaptive. divined --ings are are defined it we have to think about the shortening of this label. the prime minister will take a series of measures. >> could you be more specific tackle is the reform going to be

on a benefits system? or is it going to involve new rules for hiring and firing? >> both. reforms that the premise of becomes a whole structure of the labor market. we have to define what should be provided under the law and what should it define under the agreement. .hat's a big modernization if we add that, definitely our labor market. on the other hand, we have in the reforms -- [indiscernible] they are first to negotiate. i do believe they will find a good solution to make it more efficient, more adaptive.

it will do both. market, that labor is what is next on macros agenda agenda.on macron's actually have many unions who think they will have legal low.n against is caroline: a great exclusive interview with emmanuel macron. this time greece facing the prospect of two elections this year. in an exclusive interview with bloomberg, the warning came from the rival party leader. it comes after alexis tsipras ruled out forming a coalition

with those more pro-european. >> we should not be having elections. the government could of try to solve some problems first and then hold elections. --oline: let's get out to disillusioned voters how do they feel about the prospect of another election, even after this went? this is the third time they head back to the ballot box. they had to vote on the referendum and then vote on alexis tsipras in january. greeks did not want to go to a >> is first place in september. the prospect of having a consecutive one after that does not bode well with the greek people. to go on with its much-needed reforms. uncertaintyolitical

where medical turmoil is more evident. we cannot move forward with the economy. need evenean we will more measures as time passes by. word, thens to his it is possible we could be up for another election this year here it caroline: how messy could this get in terms of missions forming? point -- a gap between a new democracy. he iss opinion poll show up by 3.5 percentage points. all in all it is a very liquid environment. voters are moving from one party to another. undecided votee

at the moment. but we keep in mind is is going to be close battle. the platform under the new reformed party doesn't have the dynamic that we hope for. the third point is the third party in the greek parliament is up for grabs. kingmaker could be from the golden zone or the communist party. a very fluid environment at the moment. they stillern is need to make the 6 billion euro a lot. you got another prime minister entering nonetheless. it is a female prime minister. -- waseme court appointed yesterday. she is number six prime minister in the last five years in greece. she is a caretaker of government. she will take greece into the

next elections. september 20. this is out next prime minister tsipras walk under yesterday. >> i am happy that i'm welcome you first of all, because i think the handing over process has to be done in the best into -- best institutional way possible. i am very happy because i welcomed the first woman prime history. >> greek think you very much in your your primes and ministerial duties. the conditions progressed in such a way that in a crucial. i was asked to undertake the honorary role of becoming prime minister. the -- to carry the upcoming elections -- the duties are to carry out the upcoming elections in a smooth way and with integrity. and the way things progressed, i think this government will have

to deal with crucial issues such as the issue of migration. caroline: stability abounds, perhaps a silver lining. thank you very much indeed. of course we get great gdp later today. that comes out at 10:00 a.m. we get a gauge on the growth of u.k. economy. that comes out at 9:30 a.m. stay with us for the breaking of that. swiss francs peak in terms of its growth. countdown, report from the front lines of the jackson hole summit. we will hear what he had to say on the latest round of volatility. ♪

caroline: welcome back. 8:17 if you're viewing in

frankfurt. i want to give you a view at what is happening on the futures market. futures flat. we are not expecting a continuation of the rally that we saw yesterday. the stock 600 declined significantly. we saw a rebound on the back of china starting to support their own equity market. u.s., a phenomenal move in the s&p 500. today, flat on the euro stoxx 50. of the other top stories and what you need to know. switzerland's economy unexpected aborting -- unexpectedly avoiding a recession. contraction in the previous. that's in the previous period. -- in the previous period.

-- aces that's tsipras's new -- new data shows last monday one in every seven human beings on the planet is logged into facebook. the figure is different than the numbers facebook discloses. that is counted over a 30 day. -- over a 30-day period. bank ofral reserve kansas city began its summit on thursday in jackson hole, wyoming. -- what issues are looming? brendan: the question is will

the fed raise its rate in september? what i keep hearing people ask is what data? one piece of data is volatility, what we have seen in the markets of the last week. we talked to after george -- we talked to esther george. there's what she said. esther: we should expect volatility from time to time. of somen a period uncertainty. questions about china, global growth, and so we should expect volatility. what it means for monetary policy is not yet clear. it is a competition. it is something we watch, but i am not ready to say it will have a long-term effect. brendan: there is the economic data that came out thursday, second quarter gdp growth at 3.7%, well above everybody's estimates.

that is data about the real economy that the fed paid attention to. also in jackson hole, there's a group that is staging a counter conference. whose recovery is it? 5.3% which is the unemployment rate, is not the unemployment rate for everyone in america, particularly minority communities. the point is whose data are you paying attention to as you think about raising the federal funds rate. in jackson hole, i am brendan greeley. caroline: china's woes and the arelting global turmoil topping the jackson hole agenda. -- we expect a central bank as economists gather in wyoming. daily --ng in amer eimear daly. -- are you steal -- are you

still thinking the federal rate hike will come in september echo tackl? -- september eimear: it hasn't massively impacted the decision. they want to have some type of ammunition. they want to get off the zero bind. this is already -- this is always been their rhetoric. they want to get back to some normality and get away from instability. -- caroline: simon why do take a different view? simon: it is quickly said central bankers in the u.s. and u.k. are desperate to move away. why are they doing it? it is to try and stymie the hunt for yields.

if we have seen anything is that those -- challenge janet yellen warned about. inflation,rn to the there is not compelling case for rate rise. they don't want to make the same mistakes that the european central bank did in recent years. they will wait a bit longer and wait to see how the turmoil unravels. and how the chinese economic slowdown -- caroline: s&p 500 up by 5%. is that enough of a depreciation in valuation? we do it is enough to say not need to send up the signal. this is all about signaling. if you read the yellen transcript, their time to signal

to investors. markets are already asking them the question, then they have kind of done their job. ? what happens to your views at the moment? i know you have been hit rather hard. we should be short in the euro and yen, but suddenly we have become a haven. did that surprise you? eimear: i think it really did surprise us. has already had that sponging aspect to it. we stick to the short euro-dollar view. if we see central banks in asia bringing a move in a currency [inaudible] i think the euro is very vulnerable. we are sticking to the fed

quote. that will support the dollar. [indiscernible] caroline: what about the u.k.? you're looking at u.s. gdp figure. the last thing -- 3.7%. is there potential that we can see the u.k. doing better? he wants 0.6%. i think were fine. about the impact of what is happened. i think there is a reason for -- we have england seen a lot of weakness coming through at the moment. u.k. hasecause the massive deficit.

in this environment, that is going to come into focus. caroline: a hike into for your, how do you stabilize earlier rate hikes could that have on global growth? are you worried about rate hikes coming too early and miss u.k.ng echo simon: in the the position is different. it is not a market maker in terms of interest rates. it is a price taker from world conditions. icq one next year as the yearest -- i see q1 next as the earliest. if you look at the labor market figures, unemployment has picked up in the last couple of days. with the looming of the national living wage, there are some real wage pressures for employers. no necessity for the bank to move. caroline: think you both. is a mayor gordon -- it is

eimear daly and simon french. as we are set to end on a bit of a high, we talked the uptake after the break. after the break.

♪ ♪ ♪ get excited for the 1989 world tour

with exclusive behind the scenes footage, all of taylor swift's music videos, interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. caroline: welcome back. it is 7:30 here in london. here are the top stories. switzerland economy has unexpectedly avoided a recession in the second quarter. after a contraction of 1.2% in the previous period. analysts have been expecting a negative reading. china's support for its equity market and yesterday's u.s. heading for its

biggest three-day rally since 2011. update get the latest from the side of uk's economy later today. publish the second estimate of the gdp numbers. the number had come in at one point 7%. meanwhile, new data from jfk shows consumer confidence rose. while a list of investors were hitting the panic button on monday, one japanese trader made -- he made a big bet against the market. he narrated a play-by-play trade -- play-by-play trade. he walked away with $34 million. you can read that great story on bloomberg.com. let's check in on what is moving the markets. it's been such a vocus a

week for the stock 600 and we stoxx 600, monday -- we saw it down on monday. it is heading for its first weekly gain when china devalued the yuan. things looking softer at the moment. if you look at your stocks 50 future -- if you look at euro stoxx 50 futures, dax futures pretty much flat. if you look at swiss futures, we're seeing them point higher. we have that surprise on the upside for swiss gdp. growth in the second quarter, versus projections of a contraction. this was economy avoided a recession despite concerns about

the stronger frank. it was private consumption that saved the day. back to you. at what: looking ahead is going to happen on the market. let's talk m&a. the action in the pharmaceuticals beer -- the pharmaceutical sphere. billion.r is a $33 what next? on the phone, of potvin going jim. what is the expectation? caroline. it can go either way. we've got two big shareholders. committed to acquisition in june. person who says they will support this takeover.

on the other hand, we have some of the agencies that say please vote no. it could go either way. it's not set in stone yet that minor shareholders will vote. shareholders say they vote yes, are there any other hurdles to the deal afterwards? what about competition? elco: one of the big hurdles is does to be joe spot the not support the deal. offer.agree to the milan is already worried. 80% threshold for acceptance and they lowered it to 50%. it underlines the

worries that milan has. caroline: the last few days, the ceo not pro-the deal. how tense has it got? there has been some muscling going around which you have just mentioned. he already said that he questions their governance. issays that milan threatening to delist the shares . even if 49% of the shareholders reject the offer, i don't know if that is true, that is what he said. ilan said that the statements are misleading and cited the irish takeover panel.

another thing is that he has been clear that he is very happy to make more deals to strengthen his own company and that he sees a bright future for the company without mylan. caroline: we will see how the tussle continues. thank you very much on the latest, para go and my land. has week's market threatened dealmaking across the globe. what happened yet go less get more with jonathan bell. thanks for joining us. give us a sense of what you felt with the volatility and continued m&a news? we've had deals being struck. the monsanto deal. it is been an on-off.

which one is going to be the trend. jonathan: it has been a good year for m&a this year. that is to be expected when you withstrong balance sheets little revenue growth. buybacks and m&a are the two that people are looking at. i'm not surprised we've had him in a. in terms of the current turmoil, i don't think is going to have much of an impact yet. some deals will have to be pulled, but it will give opportunities for other deals to come forward. see more m&awill activity. caroline: whether we have seen crushing destruction and some of the market violations. those are deemed ready. pharmaceuticals, these are areas where either they are going to cut costs or all of it is

cutting costs. there still some growth. which is where pharmaceuticals and commodities have been difficult to get revenue down. the benefits of cross-selling. caroline: if you were a chief executive at the moment eying a potential deal, one of the things that was fueling your ambition was money, would you be wanting to go now? would you still be worrying about the federal reserve hiking rates come september? and the fact that we might see borrowing costs going up a bit? jonathan: i think it is going to be irrelevant. i don't think they're going to have a rate rise in september. make thatdoes not much difference to companies. caroline: at the moment, do we feel amid the volatility there is not going to be any concern that we could start to see linning's dry up or any of the

money being available starting to come off the table? jonathan: it is different. there has to be concern in the u.s., the banks have resolved their problems. europe is where there is an issue, and of course china. in china, we're seeing a simulation at the moment of china getting banks to lynn -- banks to lend. banks tory and get still be able to lend, even though they've got a lot of loan loss provision to make. caroline: speaking of qe, there's been lipservice paid to members of the -- do you think? gotthan: the program we've will probably not be enough. they need to keep going. the banks are still in poor shape in terms of provision. they are going to be giving --

they're going to begin longer to sort themselves out. caroline: you're staying with us. thank you very much indeed. has been a roller coaster ride for markets around the world this week. nowhere more so than in china. what economic impact? stay tuned, because we are back with the latest research. ♪

caroline: welcome back. it is 7:45 here in london. here are the stories you need to know. switzerland economy has avoided a recession in the second quarter. that is thanks to consumption and domestic spending. analysts have been expecting further negative numbers. swiss economy minister has to

loosen the country's rigid labor laws. in an extensive interview with bloomberg he's is france's labor market will be simpler and more flexible, with lagging growth at a record high, he says the country has little choice to press ahead. ridiculed eu antitrust demand, saying they are peculiar and problematic. regulators want google to change the way it searches results, saying, set -- saying the company is prioritizing its own -- let's head out to asia for an update on where stocks are ending the week. it is going to be a green day. we could be calling back some of those losses earlier. >> we could be. we are about 15 minutes from the close on the shanghai market. .ook at that, the gain of 4.1%

about 45 minutes ago i said it was nice to see the shanghai composite doing what every other market is doing. we have seen a lot of buying coming through. overall, incredibly positive here in asia on the back of the global relief rally with strong gains in the u.s. and the higher oil price. this is the first three-day rally in the asian markets since 2011. a weaker yen seeing buyers moving. in australia, weakness from some of the banks in the telco weighing on the overall index here it -- index. taiwan, singapore looking strong today. i want to show you inside shanghai composite.

we can see gains coming through. you can see telco is up by 6.6%. tech stocks up. health court -- health care up by 5.5%. oil and gas is where we have been focusing around the region. that pickup and oil price signaling confidence coming back. just under 15 minutes until china closes. it looks like it is going to have a strong game of about 4%. about --rong gain of strong gain of about 4%. juliette saly in hong kong with the latest on asian trade. becausetion of the day, china is propping up at stocks, good or bad for the free market? depreciate -- depreciation was a them minute we

are just the minute wetland profit up, the celebration of september the third. let's have a look at futures here in europe. stalled toing at a flat day. declines for the dax. .2%. up -- we are up we are expecting money to come off the table. perhaps not such a high note here for trading in the u.s. and europe. bullock was to ride in season markets around the world. nowhere more so than in china. what does it mean for the world's gdp? joining us now to talk through all of the issues is jamie murray. and the jonathan bell. jamie, you are not so worried about the ramifications? that the market selloff too much?

jamie: -- jamie: you got a bit of a signal about future growth prospects. we're not too worried. should being's aspect contained to china. is themare looking at are prospects for china over the next few years. china has gone from the fastest-growing economy in the world to the fastest-growing economy in the world. it.re not too worried about caroline: how are you determining china? he said it is not impossible to read china right now. how are you interpreting what is happening in china? jonathan: the fall of the stock market is something we should not worry about. it was in a bubble.

in a probably needed to deflate. i'm concerned about the slowdown in china. we have seen a lot of evidence that the slowdown, looking at and port numbers and export , all the numbers have indicated that growth is slower. i suspect we made it 4% growth in china. that is a big difference. -- youook at will growth can probably take off 5% gdp growth for markets like the u.s. and u.k.. it does have an impact on global growth. we need to consider that. that may be one of the reasons why you look at u.s. interest this means the rate hike is delayed until we really understand. i don't think it is going to be in september. they want to raise rates. december,n do so by

they will. i think there will be a slowdown. even if you get that, it is not going to rise much more. caroline: jamie, what do you look for in an economist when you look at china? had you dig through what is real? -- how do you dig through what is real? jamie: we have a tracker measure of gdp. modest modest -- it is a slowdown. caroline: jonathan was talking about gdp in u.s. and europe. jamie: i think we're looking at more than that. is a larger share of global growth and global gdp than it used to be. it is still not enormous. [indiscernible]

caroline: after the rout we have seen, yes we are seeing a s&p 500ce in stocks, still down 5%. [indiscernible] jonathan: the u.s. down 5% is not a big fall. the u.s. market has been extensive all year. it -- it is not really moved all year. inope is more interested europe. it is not really recovered in terms of economic. the support for europe is you have a weaker euro which is going to carry on. it is going to carry on falling. hopefully you got the growth that you have seen in countries like ireland and spain and portugal coming through two countries like france.

france really has been the deadweight in europe. unemployment has not moved. as we get some -- if we get some real action in france, that could be good. caroline: gdp figures as well. we're expecting growth. ; we are. jamie: you have to think about what is holding it back. tight fiscal policy. aey are not going to have large and lament over the next couple of years. u.k., yes. a gentle slowdown in growth for the second half of the year. still above trend rate. look for a rate rise in february. aroline: johnson, what about rate rise in europe -- jonathan, what about a rate rise in europe.

the billionaire hedge fund saying we could see more qa. is that realistic? -- jamie: not in mine. caroline: the fed rate hike put off for the moment? jonathan: yes. caroline: when do you think we could see a rate hike in the u.s.? jonathan: the fed is trying to avoid a surprise to the market. caroline: especially with bill dudley come down -- coming out on wednesday, talking it down. -- we are going to get more analysis on the market. do stay tuned for that discussion. just a few minutes ahead of the equity markets.

five minutes to go. jonathan ferro, anchor of on the move, what are we going to be watching? jonathan: we are going to be looking back on it incredible week for global equity markets. creeped backjust into the green yesterday. a remarkable turnaround and rebound. another rebound in shanghai today. the shanghai gains manipulated. they are finishing on a high as well. on april 8, i had a guest on my show of sack so bank. it was a week before the stock 600 hit an all-time high. he nailed that call. i want to ask him where we go next. japanesewe talk about no flation. jobs back for a third time this year. it drops back for a third

time this year. caroline: thank you very much indeed. we will be tuning into you. that is it for us at countdown. stay tuned for more with jonathan ferro. futures are slightly lower here in europe. .1%.ax, down 100re seeing the ftse falling lower as well. ferragamo, those stocks have been depleting their earnings. , on the move is next. ♪

juliette: good morning, welcome to "on the move." we are here in the city of london, moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your the biggest -- morning brief. slumps to zero for the third time in 2015. -- whening recessions an economy unexpectedly grows thanks to private consumption and investor spending. ahead of the open, futures are

lower, down by 14 points. the rebound may take a bit of a breather. the dax is also lower. a big rebound yesterday in crude as well. five seconds away from the market open. caroline: the economic data keeps beating expectations. 3.7% in the u.s. yesterday, smashing all expectations, much higher. it is fueling the fire into the u.s. close yesterday. ,he volatile trading was up raising a lot of games, but they ended up 2.5% and we are on track for the best rally since 2009. could it come up a little bit today? we are opening on the greenside, 2/10 of a percent. even the dax is opening up high. it seems as though there is still a little poor appetite for risk.