lower, down by 14 points. the rebound may take a bit of a breather. the dax is also lower. a big rebound yesterday in crude as well. five seconds away from the market open. caroline: the economic data keeps beating expectations. 3.7% in the u.s. yesterday, smashing all expectations, much higher. it is fueling the fire into the u.s. close yesterday. ,he volatile trading was up raising a lot of games, but they ended up 2.5% and we are on track for the best rally since 2009. could it come up a little bit today? we are opening on the greenside, 2/10 of a percent. even the dax is opening up high. it seems as though there is still a little poor appetite for risk.

the swiss number is beating expectations and also helping fuel risk-taking on the equity side. thes take a look at how euro was trading -- up 2/10 of a percent against the dollar. this is almost the haven trade of late, but overall it is still the fx short. short on the euro and a the yen. let's have a look at how this was number plate in. suddenly we saw a swiss franc strengthen the euro, a growth rather than a recession, but it is coming off those lows. where the reaction is short-lived is in commodities. we are at last on track for a gain in oil for the first time in 10 weeks. yesterday -- 10% what a phenomenal move, the biggest rally in six years. wti traded up in the u.s., and a quick look ahead -- i know you love gdp data -- we have the

u.k. will it stick to its preliminary reading? 7%, basically flat. jonathan: the 50 here in london is putting together another day of gain. let's get over to asia with juliette sally standing by in hong kong. what a week for shanghai stocks, finishing on a high. i understand there is an all-important parade coming up next week. juliette: there certainly is, and it seems like china doesn't want anyone to rain on the parade. there have been big gains coming through in asian markets today as we started to see pumping coming through from central banks. look at that -- the shanghai composite looking like it will close up by almost 5% as it matches off. the hang seng indexes also looking pretty good in late trade. you mentioned as well that noflation number out of japan --

great gains coming through in energy stocks in the nikkei, with the closed high of more that3%, a weaker yen, and disappointing inflation number is suggesting that we will see some monetary easing coming back through into japan. but it has been a great day to round out what has been a very volatile week here in nation. the shanghai composite is looking like it will close high around 5%, with great gains elsewhere on the back of the rising oil price. oil stocks in taiwan were up by more than 6%, in japan around 5%. jonathan: juliette, great work. over here it has been a volatile week. some people are scratching their heads asking who saw this coming. a few months ago a guest came onto this show and he was very concerned about valuations. it was springtime, and his advice was to take a long summer holiday. >> i just came home from asia,

australia, the middle east. to be honest, dubai is where it was in 2008. london. this is people chasing yield across the growth. having said that, i have no miracle function to predict the markets. i am just saying -- be safe, be careful, because reentering into this seasonal part of the year, it is getting very dangerous, and i'm not even mentioning the geopolitical risk. overall, preservation of capital is the recipe to follow. 8,athan: that was april saying sell everything and come back in october. that was one we go for european stocks have their all-time highs in april, 2016. -- 2015. us, joining us now from copenhagen.

great to have you with us. congratulations on the call. going forward, where do we go next? festival, as you very -- i have no is predictability more than anyone else. but clearly, the ability to look at the market from a neutral point of view is what's needed, and what we are seeing over the course of this week is that we have reengaged the business cycle, increasing volatility is something positive. had this been two or three years ago there would have been an intervention by central banks or fund managers, desperate to chase the yield. opinion, we need to retest to see whether it holds. if it does we will be ok for the rest of the year.

but everything is dependent on the federal reserve. on the federal reserve, the likelihood of going ahead is higher than people perceive. jonathan: we'll get to that in just a moment. your advice though, in april was go to cash. do you look at things now -- is it time to put money back on the table? where would you do it? steen: absolutely. i had another note this week where it was time to come back. we will see some reaction this week, and i think the energy it is inut overall, the commodities sector and emerging markets is where i have my focus. if you think about the concept, we have a dollar which dictates all moves. as soon as the dollar gets stronger, the debt that trillion, the7

dollar gets stronger and it is a margin call. then it is a call on the commodities which is highly influenced by emerging markets. that it feeds back into the european and u.s. exports. basically, as it gets smaller we need to reset what book we have. but for me it is all about finding the time in the inflation point where i get some sort of certainty for the dollar. when the dollar has had its peak, the system for the stock market, for emerging markets, and for world growth will be a weaker dollar. you know me, i'm trying to answer all questions whether or not i know anything about it. but they asked me who benefits from a strong dollar? of course, the answer is no one. jonathan: let's talk about your column the central bank. i saw a quote earlier -- "like parents of toddlers.

or you a bad precedent, place risk." how do you parent the stock market? steen: i think for us as investors, it is important to realize that the fed does not move the needle. the rateot initiate hike cycle. we will have an extension of what is already in place -- a stronger dollar and lower commodities. is probablymoving the worst because we need some sort of certainty. we also need to address whether this is one and stop. week has been, in my mind, confirming the fact that the odds of a september hike is significantly higher than the 20% which is the probability of before. whatever happens with the fed, whether they go in september or october or

to ther, all of it leads same conclusion -- more volatility, more to a trading. what you do in that two-way trading is find things that are deeply discounted. the only thing that remains deeply discounted is emerging markets and commodities. as i talked to foreign investors, i had some commodity-based investors seeing china storing oil, discreetly buying, benefiting from low commodity prices. i think we are in front of the stabilization of the micro, i.e. the financials. but on a macro level we will continue to see two-way noise, whatever happens to the market after the fed hike will details what happens for the rest of the year. executivethe chief officer -- congratulations on the call. thank you for joining us.

up, corroded goes hunting for inflation and comes back empty-handed. japanese inflation forced to zero for third time this year. will the fed be pushed by market volatility? then, switzerland's recession. we will break down the latest figures out of europe. ftse is in positive territory, a 4/10 of 1%. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back. over in japan, the boj governor hero hugo corona has a problem -- inflation has vanished again for the third time so far this year. it is falling dramatically short of the 2% target. for more on the latest, we are joined by the managing editor for japan, brian fowler. great to have you with us. going to have to go back on his 2% inflation target? n: looking at today, it was kind of a glass half-full/half-empty kind of picture. many had expected cpi to dip and it didn't. that is the good news.

on the other hand, the cpi for tokyo in august, a leading indicator, did fall, and that is why no one thinks we will get to 2%. whether mr. kuroda will scale back his forecast is another question. i think you will hold out as long as possible. back, when he does cut it you can expect them to blame china, oil, and commodities. jonathan: brian, he can blame a lot of external factors. when is the prospect for more er itg for the boj -- wheth works as a separate question -- but do you think they will pull the trigger again? brian: i think it does, and more importantly the economist we have asked also seem to. 3 of 5 said more action is in the works. half think you could come as early as october 30. the rest see it in january or after.

when it comes, it will come in the form of ets. jonathan: i'm not sure they will have the space but i can talk to my guest about that. going forward, what matters to these guys at the boj is inflation expectations and what the public believes will happen with inflation. do ordinary japanese people think inflation will pick up? do they think it is picking up? brian: that is the key question because of the japanese don't believe that it won't happen. we saw consumption falling for the second straight year. anecdotally, we are hearing from japanese a spenders that they are too concerned about the outlook of the economy to make any big purchases unless they really have to. it is a bit like the capital investment question. yen, and down the boosted earnings, and the reason why is because the deflationary

mindset was too strong. i think it is the same with consumers. they don't believe the demographic drain can be overcome. jonathan: brian fowler, thank you very much. coming out of tokyo for us this morning. for more we are joined by stuart richardson. art, when is more no longer the answer? stuart: sometimes soon around the corner, whether it be q4, q2 next year. globally, it is coming into questioning. the rug was pulled under the euro-swiss floor and a lot of people lost money. we saw it again in q2 with the chinese. they threw the whole kitchen sink and yet we tested new lows again this week. we are in this whole process of will the fed raise rates.

credibility has been chipped away at all this time and there comes a point where it's not enough. people on the other side of the aisle are saying it will have a negative impact on the economy. the longer you keep these companies in japan, you have this massive oversupply of capacity that is deflationary. if that is not working, let's devalue our currency -- everyone has been through that and japan has been the leader, pushing deflationary policies overseas. this is all very, very hard, deflationary stuff, and it's a sign it's not working. jonathan: why do they rip up the play? you look at the situation in the pension fund had to move out of the market to make room for them. i don't know wherecomes and how much these guys can buy. when you look at what would

drive them to do even more -- the slowdown in china -- or do look atut and get a -- the rebound we have seen in the yen, say that will push them over the line? stewart: it is a bit of everything. you can point the finger at everyone else. japanpoints at japan, points at the fed. it is moving into a blame game and i don't think it's serious, but no one wants to take responsibility. no central bank wants to admit their policies don't work. qe was always an extremely experimental policy and they did it in huge size. they can't back down and say it's not working, so they will do it again until the markets say you are wrong. and the markets love it. we keep hearing talk of people saying there will be more qe, but as long as it works, the

markets stay pretty steady or move higher, the central bank will keep doing it. there is an uneasy balance between markets and central banks and that has to break before they can change policy. jonathan: one big question is whether mr. abbe has to make a move. stewart will stay with us. will the fed hike before market volatility? the retreat may hold the clues. the fallout for the fed and the market route and rebound in u.s. equities after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back. i'm jonathan ferro, live from london. reserve annual retreat in jackson hole, wyoming is in full swing. -- which data is the fed focusing on and what will happen in next month's policy decision? the gdp figure came in at 3.7%. will the big focus be the recent bout of market volatility? we should expect volatility from time to time. of somen a period uncertainty, questions about china, questions about global growth. i think we should expect some volatility. what it means for monetary

policy i think is not yet clear. it is a complication, something we watch, but i'm not ready to say it has a long-term effect. jonathan: stewart is still with us. you look at the fed and they have to account for the market in some way. when you look at the moves this week -- $5 trillion penny stop, do you put it down to fear or market structure? stewart: it is a bit of both. we have been building up to this for some time. it was the tightest trading range year to date in the dow jones. low volatility and high volatility -- whether it was up or down we were going to break out. with what has been happening, the pressure has been building, commodities collapsing, emerging markets struggling, it was reminiscent of the market that

will fall over, and it did so with a huge burst of energy on the downside. we saw this amounts of balance backup -- we saw this massive balance bacoucence back up. this is causing air pockets in the market. they creates a big panic for people who have never seen it, and we are seeing a lack of liquidity. we are now in a different market, in the market has changed in the last week or so and we need to expect more of this. jonathan: it the last two weeks hadn't happened, we would still have a slowdown in china, about we have a very -- but we have a very high possibility of a rate hike in the u.s. how did they navigate not making a move in next month's decision? stewart: without this volatility they would have looked at the market saying, ok, a bit tough overseas but we are fine here,

let's support the rate rise. to strikeey are keen back. but she said it's not clear what they need to do. how can we predict with the will be doing? jonathan: they won't have the conviction to make the move next month? this is the first meeting we've had for a long, long time. foreign investor, what do you do? go into bonds and hide? stewart: at the moment, we have been saying all summer that there is a potential. you have to be defensive with assets and holding option ality. this is a difficult environment to navigate. if you wanted to try, you would have to hold small positions and liquid positions. -- if you sure weren't prepared to weeks ago, it is difficult to prepare now.

this volatility should continue but it won't be quite as bad. you have to be very careful. this big rally -- you have a chance to position yourself better. jonathan: quickly, you saw the green and said you wouldn't be tempted by the calm waters to tiptoe back in. , that 14% bounce -- jonathan: the big gap lower. stewart: when you are holding options and trading cash against it you do want to selloff, trader volatility. from here on in, we have all talked about what is ailing the global economy. if they raise rates, it should strengthen the dollar. commodities, if they don't raise rates, they lose credibility. this is a different market environment. rather than dipping a toe here, you have to be trading the market if you can't just sit

there and do nothing. jonathan: that sums up this week. thank you very much. after the break we will break down the gdp figures across europe. ♪

jonathan: welcome back, i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into the session -- let's get up to speed on the trading day. 1%is higher, up a 10th of but rolling over in the last 10 minutes or so. .e will get to them in a moment the dax is rolling over as well. switch of the board and i will get to the other asset classes -- a huge move yesterday. 10%, aging over remarkable rebound, climbing over a 2009 low. $43 a barrel.

caroline: all those trends, jonathan, oil shooting higher -- was it the biggest move in six y ears? it was up 10% yesterday, for the first week in ten we will see again for oil, driving oil stocks higher. we have seen them dominate when andomes to the stoxx 600, support services to the oil industry are up 9%. oil are still well below $30 per barrel, but nevertheless we are starting to see that momentum push oil higher. miners are also leading the charge. out there paraded -- they are pumping money into the stock market to keep the feel-good factor ready for september 3 when they get to that military parade. you are seeing glencore leading

the charge, top nearly 4% after being battered by the recent route and stocks related to chinese growth. vivendi has been downgraded by citigroup, and this is ahead of the conglomerate -- all about music and tv -- it is reporting its numbers next week. they come out september 2 and overall we are likely to see that support revenue helped by the strong dollar. the tv area could be a bit lackluster overall. look out for those numbers september 2. citigroup is looking not to positive. back to you. jonathan: great work. i am trying to keep up with glencore -- it is the biggest gainer on the ftse 100. a volatile market.

you are trying to keep up with glencore and shanghai is trying to keep up with greece. hang seng -- the prospect of back-to-back elections -- unless there is a majority in the snap vote. that came from the leader of the opposition river party in an exclusive interview with bloomberg. >> we should not be having an election. the government could have tried to solve problems first -- a denver, october, november -- then hold elections. jonathan: let's speak to me niklaus. how do already disillusioned voters feel about the prospect of the second election, and what are the polls doing at the moment? and are we expecting a low turnout this time around? niklaus: there is obviously is fatigue among voters. changed toalready six prime minister's since the debt crisis began, including the caretaker who was sworn in yesterday.

today the country will get its ninth finance minister, also a caretaker since 2010. published today showed that 64% of respondents say that alexis tsipras's decision to ask them to cast ballots for third time this year was a bad call. leadsipras retains his over opposition parties, but he points from 11.5 points in the previous survey by the same pollster. you are starting this campaign from a poor position but he has been weakened, and he will probably have to engage into coalition talks with the parties he accuses of being ill representatives. we may be bracing for a new decision, greek drama, and political instability.

jonathan: the greek political drama seems to continue. the biggest surprising thing coming out of anywhere over the last few months, i'm going to say, was greek gdp. 0.8%. theirody stared at screens and scratched their heads, wondering what was going on with greek gdp. what can we expect for the final reading? niklos: we are seeking confirmation today that the greek economy averted a double-dip recession in the first half of the year, despite the government's best efforts. don't forget that this is an economy that was mired in depression for six years. the natural tendency is to rebound. of course, that won't account for the full impact of capital controls, which were only

enforced at the end of june. we will only see the impacts of these decisions once we get the third-quarter data. of course, greece can hope that another, stronger tourist season will soften the impact of capital controls. a record 26 million tourists are expected to visit greece this year, likely who live in a country with hundreds of islands that everyone wants to visit. jonathan: a fascinating gdp reading. coming out later at 10:00 a.m. -- don't miss it. we will bring yoit to you live. the greek economy dodged a recession and so did the swiss, hosting a surprise growth of .2% after economists expected a contraction. nejra has the details -- break down the details and tell me how that swiss franc move plays

into it. nejra: it was actually private consumption and investment spending that saved the day and drove that growth in the second quarter. some economists are saying you would expect, perhaps, that private consumption number, given the strength of the franc, but the investment was a bit of a surprise. what i found surprising, given there was so much concern ahead of this that there would be an impact on exports, is that exports rose .5%. franc rally at first but it has fallen a bit act against the euro. since the end of june, we have seen the euro strengthen versus the franc, and if that continues we may not see that impact on exports that people had been fearing so much. economists are expecting a growth of .1% in the fourth

quarter and .2% in the fourth quarter. jonathan: this is the headline that the swiss national bank didn't want. i'm sure thomas your dan is breathing a sigh of relief. no such relief or swiss stocks -- it has been a good month for anyone -- but talking about swiss equities specifically? nejra: this is interesting, because we did see the smi plunge when that franc cap was lifted in january, but then we saw the stocks recover, and get pretty close to an all-time high that was hit back in 2007. yet, this month has been about one. largely drop of 6%, driven by those concerns over china and the devaluation of the yuan. and of course, the market turmoil. exporters --

particularly watchmakers -- are highly exposed to china. they get about a quarter of their revenue from china. that is why we have seen this drop in august. and investors who actually want to protect against further declines in the smi are paying the most since october. jonathan: thank you very much. that is the situation in switzerland. here in the u.k., we will get a second reading of gdp out in under an hour. we will get more insight into what is driving growth and how global economic events have played out in the u.k. we are joined by jamie murray. jamie, thanks for joining us. a huge surprise for the was economy -- what are they expecting in the u.k.? we aren't expecting a big revision to the headline gdp number. we've had a manufacturing and construction data, and the only uncertainty is services. there is a little that is scope for vision but nothing on the same scale. jonathan: we have a talking

about exports for a long time -- what can we do about it? can we support gdp in a decent way? jamie: that might be the case this quarter. it has a bed for a very long time, we haven't had a positive contribution for several quarters. time, butet some this it is not likely to be particularly lasting. exports,ut pressure on but we are expecting a big contribution. jonathan: if i told you what gdp was and you knew nothing about the world right now, the bank of england rate, do they even look at gdp? jamie: they do, largely so they can tell -- if efficiency gains are going up, you have more room to get pay increases without pushing up inflation. they are looking at gdp numbers with an eye to that. jonathan: jamie, thank you very much for joining us. coming up, bloomberg speaks exclusively to francis economy

minister. we will break down what he told us after this short break. ♪

jonathan: welcome back -- 43 minutes of the session. let's get you up to speed. ftse is rolling over into negative territory. up on the week, down on the month. we are heading for the biggest monthly drop since 2009 on the

50 benchmark. -- the ftse benchmark. biggest stoxx 600, the drop since 2008. have you been struggling to keep up? friday morning, down by one third of 1%. let's get to our top stories. the boj's key inflation gate slumped to zero for the third time this year. tumbling energy figures were blamed. governor kuroda's efforts will work -- switzerland's economy has unexpectedly dodged a recession thanks to investment spending. through june .3% after a contraction of -.2%. apple is expected to unveil its latest iphone and a new apple tv september ande

will allow tim cook to address concerns about apple's growth outlook. on to france -- as french growth falls behind its peers and unemployment remains at an all-time high, how vulnerable is it? we spoke exclusively with the about economy minister the recent volatility in china and what it means for the ecb. have a shock, a slowdown in china. inhad the market prices august, monitoring the chinese authorities. second, we had another reaction of the market this week. third, when you look at the figures, and when you compare

with the asian crisis at the end of the 1990's, it should be limited. to follow have extremely carefully the situation and we will have to make the maximum to monitor the situation. this that me you think the ecb should do more to support the european economy in case the situation doesn't improve? >> definitely. too early. in the coming days, at jackson hole, we will have more information from the fed and the ecb. i think it is important to see how it will react to the situation, and i think it is delivering qe, that is important. regarding -- i'm sure that the ecb will take all the depth is measures to accompany the eurozone growth. jonathan: i'm pleased to say we

are joined live from paris with caroline. amid some pretty high expectations, and the work performed got thrown around -- how are his plans for reform going? caroline: well, when you look at french growth, it had zero growth in the first and second quarters, .7% in the third. very sluggish growth in france, but just one year after his nomination, macron wanted to resonate within the business community. have the loveou but you also need some proof of love. he is referring to his activity law that just passed in july. it was forced through parliament. hollande had to force it. i asked him what was next on his agenda. >> first, we will open --

today's labor market in order to make it simple and more adaptive and flexible. thisve to think about labor code, at the prime minister said a few months ago. we will take a series of measures. caroline: the labor market reform -- that is what's next, coming from emmanuel macron. that should be very tough when you see already the political controversy in july. one partif you look at of his reform, which was to appear on sunday, you have unions and france already preparing to do legal action in order to prevent its implementation this fall. jonathan: caroline, a quick come

back -- he spent the last couple days with french business. i know the markets are joined to price in what may or may not happen in the months to come. when you talk to business leaders in france, what kind of world do they see right now? caroline: well, the business leaders i have been talking to in the past few days are not that worried about the chinese lowdown. in fact, they are seeing this as an impact in the short-term. these may impact some investment decisions, as i heard from the but theyarge ceo, still see china as a big growth opportunity in the longer term. for example, i talked to the suez ceo, who said that the right and china against air and water pollution -- we are still going to see some demand for suez water and waste services. saying that they are

pretty optimistic that the recovery in france and in --ope, the french government they want them to accelerate the reforms. the labor law is something they would like to see as soon as possible. emmanuel macron is planning to present his measures by the end of this year. jonathan: caroline, thank you. show, it has been an historic week for market. after the break, we will wrap it up and look ahead for a busy weekend. 50 minutes into the session, equity markets rolling over, the stoxx 600 higher. and gas, basic resources, the rebound and commodities supporting those industry groups. we have the stoxx 600 at a low. ♪

jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." time live from the city of london. it has been an extremely busy week for markets -- here are some of the charts. what a week for global equity markets. greek investors, the stoxx 600 dropped the most since 2008 on monday. tuesday, we saw the biggest gain since 2011 in u.s. stocks, followed up my the biggest today pop in seven years. volatility is back. have you ever wondered what

happens when you walk away from $46 billion? will find out -- the swiss pesticide maker snubbed monsanto's latest offer. they were decidedly unimpressed after monsanto said it was no longer interested. then, our third chart -- crude. a lot of noise about crude rate before this happened -- a 10% pop in one session, the biggest day of gain since 2009. it is poised for its biggest week of gains since april. we are still pretty low, though, aren't we? that's almost it for this hour on bloomberg tv. we are joined now by manus friendsjoined by fra we mccraw -- francine lacroix. the question is whether

this is the beginning of the balance from capitulation, or is rage and wei get back to volatility on monday? that was what we were discussing in the newsroom. somebody's got to go under the bus. --million people in china there are social ramifications for the destruction of income. we have a risk and reward back on the table. along withot pemco, mark gilbert, a bloomberg columnist. the idea is to take what you have been slapped with over the past two weeks and ask -- what does happen next? is their leadership battle in china? is there additional reason -- francine is assessed with this particular issue, poor china. it is all down to the bad central banks of the developed

markets that have done so much quantitive easing that it has put so much pressure on emerging markets and on china. that is francine's vanguard of the day. jonathan: if you could do one thing this weekend -- that stanley fischer speech, would that be at? manus: stanley fischer's role is to guide forward in terms of the perception of where we are with the fed. the window is closing. don't -- jonathan: manus cranny after the break -- don't miss it. that's it for me, wrapping up an incredibly volatile week. it's almost over. i'm on twitter. best of luck for the final trading day of this crazy, crazy trading week. ♪

francine: the rally continues. u.s.ean, and asian and markets. we discuss extreme market movements. manus: focus on france. exclusive interview the economy minister says he will keep an eye on china slowed down but insists it will not threaten his country's recovery. francine: let the good times roll. data shows consumer confidence at a 15 year high in the u.k.