tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 28, 2015 10:00am-11:01am EDT
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a half years, and i think it will signal confidence in the u.s. market. pimm: not if, but when. james bullard welcomes a rate increase. details from bullard on market volatility and the cost of money from jackson hole, wyoming. lost&p 500 has gained and within 6% since stocks opened on monday. funds doingual question mark it cannot predict the stock market, but creators say it's software can predict sports injuries. rugby teams already use kidman labs. we will show you how it works.
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this is the bloomberg market day. i am pimm fox. a little bit of selling taking hold. the s&p 500 down a little more than two points, the dow jones down a quarter of a percent, and the nasdaq falling marginally around three points. treasuries.e a little bit of buying taking place in the 10 year end two year following a little bit of a selloff in the middle of the week, but a little bit by. let's look at some of the top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal. the shanghai composite was up almost 5%. simultaneously, the chinese leadership is preparing for a world war ii military victory parade next week. and markets, chinese regulators
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are increasing market requirements on futures contracts and are limiting the beber of contracts that can opened before they are characterized as abnormal trading. consumer spending rose in the united states. wages and salaries increased the most since november. activist investor carl icon has taken a stake in freeport mack brown. it is a global resource company that mines for gold. the profits have been battered by the commodity price low. it would cut billions of dollars from its capital expenditures. shares of freeport mac closed more than 30%. defense secretary ashton carter is on a recruiting mission to silicon valley. carter wants to get top tech firms to join national defense contractors. his audience is skeptical of the
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pentagon, where he of privacy violations -- larry of privacy -- wary of privacy violations. we have an interview coming up today at 1:00 p.m. apple confirming the architect of its online radio strategy has quit. ian rogers has held a development of beats one. apple free radio service serves as a gateway to apple streaming paid service. beats one began about two months ago. all-timeo basketball's colorful players has died. darryl dawkins was legendary for his dunks, earning him the nickname "chocolate thunder." he was the first player to enter the nba directly from high school. darryl dawkins was 58. those are your top stories. coming up in the next hour,
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stocks in the united states gained 6% and lose 6% all in one week. the volatility has pushed some investors to pull all of their money about -- all of their money out of just about everything. the group that was doing better this week along with the s&p 500, the retail industry. this software does not predict the stock market, but does help predict sports injuries. a look at the company turning big data into a program to reduce injuries. investors want to know the timing of a u.s. rate increase from the u.s. central bank officials gathered in jackson hole, wyoming. we have been hearing from federal reserve president all over the country this morning, and brendan greeley joins me now. brendan characterize james
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bullard's outlook. brendan: one thing we have been hearing is its volatility in china, and the possibility of snow are -- slower growth in china should not be that big of a deal here with their figuring out what the next move for the fed is. >> the story that china growth may be slower than reported numbers has been around for a long time. hearing from ceos who do business in china, it looks slower than the official numbers. i think that has been priced into markets for a long time, so it is not that big a surprise. brendan: what about inflation in the u.s.? are we going to see lower inflation? >> that effect is not that big, because our economy is big. we have a lot of other things going on other than trade to china so i think there'll be a little bit of an effect but not that big. brendan: you have made it clear
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you are in favor of raising the rate now. we have the market volatility that officials tell us they like to look through. tantrum, -- taper does that give you pause about a move in the near future? >> the national stress index is up. the vix is up. i am not deny it is a volatile. -- it volatile period. but let me say this, u.s. fundamentals look good. strong reports on the economy. the second quarter gdp revised up. i think we have a good second half of the year coming so i think the u.s. outlook still looks very good, and the key is,tion for the committee how much would you want to change the outlook based on the
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volatility that we have seen over the last 10 days? i think the answer is going to be not very much. we have certainly got lower interest rates in the u.s., longer-term interest rates than we would have otherwise had. we have lower oil prices so there's are usually a lush factors. we might have higher credit spreads, higher volatility, maybe a stronger dollar. those roughly washed out, so you have the same trajectory that the committee is looking at that we were looking at before. why would we change strategy based on this volatility questioner brendan: would you argue if you do move in september, it gives confidence to the market? >> i think it will be a good day when we make this move. i think it will signal confidence in the u.s. market. remind everybody, we
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are talking about a miniscule move off of zero. the committee has a strategy of, get going on this process but let's be very gradual. let's be very gradual and data-dependent, and work our way up slowly, depending on how the economy performance. brendan: we have talked a lot about the need to tighten. we have been talking this year about different methods for doing that. it is not just about the federal funds rate. what are some tools that the fed could consider as they look at policy next year? >> we have a clear plan. it is going to be interest on excess reserves. at the top of the range, reverse repo. at the bottom of the range, a 25 basis point range we expect fed funds to trade in between these two, and i think those rates will move up in tandem. we do need to see that once it
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gets started. year,n: over the last banks have been removing the excess reserves. we have seen about 200 million leave the fed. does that say it will be a less effective tool in the future? 200 billion on the amount of excess reserves out there is not a big number. billionnny to say 200 is not a big number, but it is not. we will use this method as long as we have super abundant reserves, and i do think it will work. brendan: are you going to cap reverse repo amounts, and if so, how much? a lot of people in the markets are worried you are going to become the repo market, and everybody will take their money out of money funds and put it into the fed. >> i think right around the time of liftoff we would probably not put any cap on it, because we want to see what happens. later on we would make a decision on that and try to
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limit the size. where we are going to come down, i do not know exactly. struck allhave been day by how important altar is to the fed presidents. also told us he does not believe the committee is comfortable moving in a. of high volatility. that is not data-dependent, that is cultural comfort. she just did not feel like the committee was comfortable being at the zero lower bound, so we are not just talking about data, we are talking about culture. pimm: i notice the backdrop, it all looks very lovely. apparently there have been some activists roaming around the lodge in green t-shirts? brendan: to have been activists. there was a loose on the blog behind me this morning, but we cannot get the moose cam up and running in time.
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it is not really a demonstration, it is a counter conference. they're making a valid point, when the unemployment rate goes down it does not go down equally for everyone. they are lobbying the fed to keep federal funds rates low, precisely to address the issue of unemployment in all american communities. the question is whether that is a valid target for fed policy, to look at really some of these inequities in america. it is the job of congress. like so many other issues, congress is not really moving so you have lots of different communities looking to the fed for a solution. it is not just wall street. pimm: thank you very much, brendan greeley, reporting from jackson hole, wyoming. will have a conversation with atlanta federal reserve president dennis lockhart coming up at 2:15 eastern time right here on bloomberg. coming up on "the bloomberg
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♪ pimm: good morning, this is "the bloomberg market day." let's get a check on how markets are performing right now with julie hyman. julie: let's take a look at the major averages. let's take a look at movers while we are looking at gamestop. the shares are up seven and a half percent. this is the worst-performing stock in the s&p 500 today, lower after its earnings report, although by all accounts earnings reports were strong.
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i will finish my thought on gamestop. the shares of gamestop are lower after benchmark research lowered the stock to a cell and said that the secular changes in the gaming market have been creating some issues for it. it is going to be left behind as we see more mobile gaming, for example, so those shares down 7.8%. stocks do remain higher on the week. all three major averages down, but not seeing steep declines to end it has been a very turbulent week. gamestop is the worst performer. freeport is the best performer for the second day in a row after carl icahn agreed here taken out a stake in the company. -- mick moranara
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this gives you an idea of the magnitude of the gains over the past couple of sessions. this is going back to 1995. i tried to pull it all the way back to 1988, but it would not go back that far. a record gain yesterday for the stock. it's two gain -- day gain is also a record. we are talking also about how much it has underperformed. this is a one-year chart. freeport has done worse than copper, which is done 25%. the company also guilty of some poor timing and started to get into the oil and gas business. pimm: thank you very much, julie hyman. let's take a look at some of the top stories crossing the bloomberg. puerto rico is being drenched with rain by tropical storm after moving west
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flooding the island of dominica. four people died and several others are still missing. it could become a hurricane if it reaches south florida early next week. george w. bush is revisiting a low point of his president, in new orleans for ceremonies looking at hurricane katrina. his administration was severely criticized for its response to the natural disaster. mark 10 years since the storm made landfall in the louisiana. elon musk is going back to his days at paypal for their first incentive offer. tesla modelase a after being referred by a current owner, you will receive a $1000 discount and the owner will also get a $1000 credit toward a new car. musk had a similar referral system in perp -- in paypal, of
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which he was a cofounder. investors have been pushing -- pulling their cash for almost everything. mike regan and oliver renick jointly right now. what have you heard, say from the different investing segments. oliver: we had some pretty interesting numbers coming out from the retail side. you see investors not only pull money from equity funds but from bond funds. some preliminary numbers through the first week of august, you saw about $9 billion come out of equity funds, $8 billion out of bond funds, and the same thing was happening. about 2 billion out of equities and eight really dollars out of funds -- bonds. the monthly move can be pretty large, but what is interesting as they are coming out of both asset classes.
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obviously we do not have all of the data from august yet, but we will see what this shows. oliver: investors do not want to take on risk whether it is just riskier equities or any kind of risk. managers, high-yield corporate, passive management following the strategy. oliver: you definitely see a little bit of a risk off the cave year, a broad-based move on behalf of the mom and pop investor. pimm: mike reagan, i am not going to date you, but we have seen this kind of picture before, right question mark the retail investor gets out at just the wrong moment to get back in just the wrong moment. of unusual tond have them come out of both asset classes simultaneously. it reinforces this idea that
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this upcoming interest rate hike is really a bogeyman spooking people out there. why 25 basis points should change anybody's life, i do not see it. pimm: do you think people care that they would buy a cd because it is in short and you will get insuredg -- in short -- and you will get something? mike: pull it out and put it in a money market fund and ride this out. when i see these mutual fund flows, what about etf's? is it just migration out? as far as the spider, the s&p 500, the flows were kind of flat over the same. necessarily people switching out of mutual funds and going into etfs. pimm: may shoot myself in the foot just a little bit, because
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this data does not really include what happened this week. oliver: true. pimm: when you look at this, maybe they were smart, maybe they got out ahead of it. oliver: when you see big outflows, then we will now. pretty think we will be surprised if those numbers do not increase after the selloff. i think it is particularly important because what you're seeing on the bottom inside some people got burned during the taper tantrum because they thought, i do not want to be in stocks. i want to put my money in bonds. pimm: they thought it was safe. oliver: i think what you have is not only a group of people -- pimm: losing money on the capital, which may or may not have occurred. oliver: it beams into the whole idea that this bull market has been hated by people of my generation.
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♪ pimm: this is "the bloomberg market day." i am speaking with mike regan and oliver renick. we were just talking about how this was an unloved rally. oliver: i think that has been a big part of it, and perhaps that is why this fall down the past couple of weeks has been as steep as it was, because we did not see the eagerness to buy up on the correction. when it was going down 10% or 11%, there were not a lot of people willing to jump back into the market.
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along the ride, the have not been a whole lot of players. pimm: what is this, a rumpelstiltskin chart? you wake up on monday, watch it fall, and wake up on a friday and it has increased. mike, maker your comment known about unloved markets. do they really signal big market direction changes? mike: the contrary and in everyone wants to. got greased upry and it is hard to keep climbing that thing. a lot of what seems to be happening, and i'm basing this thinking a lot on an interesting note from a jpmorgan strategist who basically was saying, there is all these black box program trading right now and they are not racing their trades on fundamentals or anything like that. pimm: price movements. mike: they're basing them on momentum, or these strategies
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that sort of rebalance portfolios as volatility increases. the equity leverage, and they will rebalance to the last risky -- the less risky. pimm: can they connect with you on twitter or e-mail to learn more about this report? mike: they can. you have to be ready for a lot of bad jokes. pimm: and oliver? oliver: renickvb. pimm: next, we will take a look at retailers. ♪
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executive avid life media, the parent company is stepping down. this comes after a week in which news was reviewed -- revealed that 37 million accounts of ashley madison the adultery based website, have their personal details exposed. gervin -- no biederman has stepped down. a sad story of desperate migrants trying to get into europe. this comes as the bodies of more than 100 i grant are being recovered from the mediterranean nearly be a. near libya. 11 people are being held in the deaths of 71 migrants. there is jubilation in sierra leone as the last known ebola
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patient leaves the hospital. her departure could mark the end of african continent's biggest epidemic. she most likely contracted the virus from her son who died last month. if she test negative for 42 days, the world health organization will declare the country ebola-free. the greek parliament will reconvene on october 1. meanwhile, the economy grew slightly faster in the second quarter than analysts had previously invested -- estimated. -- recentlyly reached a deal on a third bailout fund. leader sounds like he is ready to bury the hatchet with his neighbor. he said crisis talks last week with south korea brought the countries back from the brink of war.
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he says they are now on the track of reconciliation and trust. the two countries held days of marathon talks after exchanging artillery fire. those are your top stories at the moment. coming up on "the bloomberg market day," how big data and analytics can predict and reduce sports injuries. hurricane katrina hit the gulf coast a decade ago, wreaking havoc on the city of new orleans. 10 years later, areas outside the city are still suffering. we will take a look at one town, the town of braithwaite. a wild week of markets, we will wrap up the highs and lows of this week's market. retail is riding the rally. thenapped back higher than s&p 500 this week after a huge decline from the market selloff. for a closer look at how the market is affecting the retail
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industry, i want to bring in market freedom -- mark freed from -- friedman. from your perspective, maybe divide up the retail world. living, who is losing, what is going on. mark: we are in a better fashion tread -- trend on the retail side. pimm: that means we jeans and oxford button-down shirts? mark: in great colors, hunter green, all of green, fall-like colors that fit in the season. -- midore right for med of them all retailers. trends,u have those colors, jeans, back to school. now the losers. mark: we are still seeing some
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challenges in other parts of the business. home, we still like as a space. pimm: like williams-sonoma, pottery barn? well,they are still doing but it is a little bit more competitive recently. we think they will still bounce because in general the housing market is strong. there has been some disappointment off their third-quarter earnings. pimm: department stores, particularly whether it is the bloomingdale's-macy's market, whether it is kohl's, tell us about that. mark: they would probably also be in the loser camp. kohl's came from a very strong back half of last year. it was a struggle for them to match that in the first half of the year. macy's has also kind of been up and down, more down recently. we think in general the department stores are being more challenged to breakthrough in the fashion trends, not that they are not trying.
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we think they are not standing out the same way. pimm: you mentioned the disney "frozen" merchandise. "star wars." mark: it is in the stores and there is definitely the potential there. pimm: you are smiling. mark: i'm a little nervous because "star wars" has had such a long franchise. "frozen" came and built on it. new but thenot be next generation of movies, still too early to say whether it can match up. pimm: tell me about the big box discounters, target, costco, and will market. -- and walmart. mark: still struggling with walmart. target, we think has gotten over some of their challenges from a year ago, like it much better. not as close to cost go to
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comment on. pimm: luxury retail, nordstrom. the nordstrom numbers were better than the macy's numbers. mark: we think they are being helped by the fact that off rack is working for them. pimm: macy's is following in that genre, creating their own off-price line of apparel. mark: they are launching it but it is having no impact on their business. nordstrom has a great online business. pimm: tell me about online. i keep thinking amazon, books, media, but it is everything. it is fashion. mark: apparel is probably between 15% and 20% of business online. retailers that have this on the channel presence, the reality is, you want to be able to buy something online and if it does not fit, make an easy return in the store. weing bricks and clicks, as
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like to say, is a huge benefit. pimm: do you see any change in the buying patterns of back to school parents, or back-to-school shoppers? mark: continually later. pimm: waiting for sales? mark: people want to go to school and see what everybody else is wearing. maybe they want to buy a portion before school starts, but they want to see what their friends are married before they fully loaded up the closet. the second part is for the more adult retailers, more that is flowing in later because they are so focused on buying for their kids back to school that they are not delivering as much heavyweight goods in august. it is more what we call by now, where now. int next delivery that comes the next couple weeks is much more focused on fall. pimm: very interesting comments about back to school. you wait and see what everyone else is wearing and then you go
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a volatile week for asian equities, with monday the worst day in four years with massive selloffs. today, a global recovery. confidence prevailed as the trading week close in asia. friday brought an increase in risk taking as china intervened to shore up its equity market. beijing intervened in the markets rate thursday to halt the biggest selloff since 1996. people familiar say china resumed buying equities to stay safe ahead of the military parade. a $5 trillion tumbled in shares on the chinese market has rattled investors worldwide while the devaluation of the --n sparked shargh swings #in asian-pacific currencies.
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japan remained and our sites as inflation vanished for a third time this year, due to a drop in oil. tumbling energy prices are interfering with the bank of japan's attempts to reese -- two thirdt the world's largest economy. we will get a clear sense of how china's slowdown impacts australia when glenn stevens convince his board to decide monetary policy. pimm: let's check in with europe, where mark barton is standing by. it was suppose inevitable that stocks would .ecline after that fortune we are on track for a small gain over the week. do not forget on the monday the stock 600 had its biggest inclines since 2008.
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after china props up its equity market, up its equity looking over at jackson hole for cues to whether the fed will raise rates. this is affecting equity markets in europe today. announced arragamo disappointing half yearly sales. i want to show you the currency that is the best performing currency on a trade wager basis out of the 10 major leading nations. it is the swiss franc today. the dollar is down. investment in private consumption helped return the nation to growth. as we look at sterling as well, the economy in the second quarter rose by .7%, in line with estimates. what was interesting was exports contributed to growth by the most in four years, suggesting the economy is rebalancing.
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that was the initial bounce in sterling after the release of data. it is down against the dollar. let's finish out with what is happening across the bond markets, inflation around spain and germany are suggesting there is no inflation repression in europe, telling us the ecb may have to expand its bond buying program beyond next september to contain deflationary fears. julie: we are hearing from a lot of fed officials in jackson hole throughout the day and throughout the weekend. mike mckee and brendan greeley are out there. we had a little bit of a pullback to in the week, not much of one, a small pullback. it looks like we will finish up on the week, as mark was talking about is the case with the european averages. we are seeing the drag here coming from telecom services, consumer staples, financial, but ate up a look -- take a look
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the two areas still in the green, energy. the energy index is up about three and a half percent, it's best week since february. as we saw the big declines earlier this week and the big rebound driven by what is going on with oil prices. , up 9.4% onat oil the week. it looks like it will be the best week for oil in about four and half years with that big third -- at 44 .30 44.34 a barrel. whether that is sustainable is another question, and all that is trickling back to the energy stocks, as i mentioned. trans ocean, these have been some of the very worst performers of the year to date.
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this whole snapback affect that we are seeing, chesapeake one of the bottom performers with marathon and trans ocean, feeling a lot of pain. a relief rally this week, and there is debate about whether any gains in oil will be sustained. pimm: thank you very much, julie hyman. let's look at some of the top stories. market turbulence may be affecting how americans view the economy. consumer confidence fell in august to a three-year low. financese of americans' have rose. mylan plans a hostile takeover of perrigo. they have called mylan's proposal value destructive.
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ge getting ready to sell off another financing unit. wells fargo is the front runner railcar finance business. ge has been selling off its finance businesses so that it can focus on its manufacturing and engineering. those are your top stories at the moment. it is a trend made famous by the book and movie "moneyball," sports teams driving to technology to gain a competitive edge. getman labs builds software that datazes athletes' medical with the goal to reduce injuries. they are just announced a partnership with the miami dolphins. the founder and executive stephen smith joins us from san francisco. would you describe, what exactly does kidman labs produce? platformreproduce a
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that helps teams understand the science of winning, bringing together all the data points they are collecting from the stresses that are placed on athletes, and we collate that information, and how that innovation -- information manifest itself, bringing together all those different data points we can start to understand what the stresses really need. and when an athlete is at risk, and we can empower that insightful, actionable pieces of information that allowed to .rive pimm: i am wondering if you can give us an example from rugby for soccer in the u.k., because i know your product is used there, or the los angeles dodgers. stephen: it is used all day long by these teams to collect massive information from when
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the athletes arrive in the morning. it allows the teams to collect dynamic information about how these athletes move, the mechanics of their movement. that information is pulled together with other information taken from the athletes regarding how they feel, how they slept, and all the information about how well prepared they are. we pull that together with all that information along with the stresses and load placed on athletes. pimm: could you give an example of a player and something, a decision that was made by the team about that player based on the software question mark -- the software? stephen: the more in-depth information we take be relating to different types of risk factors associated. an athlete may arrive into practice and a range of motion or mechanics injury around a
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knee, for example, their knee joint would not be performing as was optimal levels. the staff can see this and use corrective exercises to actually intervene with that and ensure that that athlete is promoted back to the pitch safely. pimm: i want to thank you very much for joining us. stephen smith is the founder and chief executive of kidman labs. still ahead, louisiana has been rebuilding for 10 years since hurricane katrina and one of the biggest challenges is restoring nature. we have a report from the gulf coast. ♪
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plan to restore the coastline are controversial. david: louisiana's coastal master plan. $50 billion. ,ome of that with something where than $6 billion will come from the bp oil settlement. the state loses about a football field worth of coast every hour. >> we would have much more green. you can see it is kind of choppy, fragmented marsh. david: marshland is the
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mainland's line of defense. chip klein plans to see that there is more of it. you are looking at probably a $140 million project. david: he is piping in settlement from the mississippi river to create a new marshland. another way to move sediment is with what are called river diversions. those --criticism for from those who are worried about the installation of river diversions that allow the mississippi river to flow into the marshland. that is one component of the master plan. one critic is fishermen george rex. >> we will be out of business. david: he worries that a new diversion will hurt the fishery and his likelihood. what are we traversing right now?
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that is about 30 miles from a river diversion built before hurricane katrina. >> you see how thick and lush that marshes? now watch where we are going. miles from where we left. miles,about maybe eight 10 miles from the diversion. there is no root system at all. david: he blames that on the influx of fresh water. restoration,oastal the government does not understand this fragile ecosystem. louisiana will revise the coastal plan in 2017. david gora, thank you for the report. where are you right now? i am in braithwaite, about 20 miles away from new
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orleans, the front line of the fight over coastal reconstruction and protection. i'm about maybe a quarter of a mile away from a levy, and this neighborhood was on the other side of that when hurricane isaac came in 2012. all of the houses in this neighborhood were destroyed. many people have not moved back because they cannot get flood insurance, so this is what people are grappling with. that is the center of this $50 million debate over what will happen to the louisiana's coast. tomorrow, bill clinton joins mitch landrieu in events commemorating katrina. pimm: we have much more coming up on "the bloomberg market day." ♪
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of emerging markets of equities as an asset class is changing. the chic art galleries that put new york's chelsea neighborhood on the map for contemporary art lovers are soon to be extinct. last month was the busiest july ever for a merger -- for merger and acquisition activity. some of the biggest deals of the summer. good morning, this is "the bloomberg market day." i am pimm fox. let's take a look at how markets are performing on this friday, august 28. u.s. stocks a little bit lower. the s&p 500 at 1983, a climb of about a quarter of a percent. the
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