tv Bloomberg West Bloomberg September 1, 2015 4:30pm-5:01pm EDT
4:30 pm
scarlet: welcome back to a special one hour in addition of "what'd you miss?" alix: stocks getting hammered today, the major averages falling about 3%. matt miller he joins us now with a look at the best and worst s&p performers of the day. i'm guessing there were about two stocks that were the best performers of the day. matt: there were three, in fact. i will take you through all of them. i can take my two of them were gainers. not cablevision. it was up 2%. i'm still trying to figure out why. wheninteresting on the day
4:31 pm
apple comes out and says it's going to get into the content is , or at least reports imply that. tv and movieto produces about making its own content. netflix was one of the biggest losers. i will show you that in just a second. american airlines getting absolutely crushed. deutsche bank upgrading american airlines as well and delta. fuel costs are getting cheaper and that's one of the biggest costs of operating an airline, obviously next to personnel. .hen you have sigma-aldrich i look at this first and i pull up the chart and thought, what is going on there? then i remembered merck is buying sigma-aldrich with a cash deal. it doesn't change, but it has not closed yet. you will not see the stock going away from 140 dollars a share.
4:32 pm
let's look at the biggest loser of the day. an interesting story on netflix. dollar tree was the biggest loser because it had revenue forecast of 15.3 billion dollars for the full year. analysts were looking for $15.6 dollar on average, then tree said we cannot take you what kind of profit were going to make because were still integrating the purchase of family dollar, bought back in july. off with the rest of the market down 8.7%. freeport matt moran was iti because itc doesn't think it's going to slow down copper production. if nobody slows down, you get too much supply new don't have enough demand to me that supply. so the price of the producer will go down as well. i talked about apple eating
4:33 pm
netflix's lunch. it's not a done deal. we note netflix has some great shows. a boost in the price target did not seem to help netflix. alix: thank you so much for the roundup on the markets. ofoined by the deputy head u.s. economics. we have yet to see the global stock selloff trickle into the economy. do you agree? >> i do agree. it's hard to know the impact of the changing conditions on the real economy. that's something we will find out in the coming months. the way i think about it, there is more uncertainty.
4:34 pm
it is uncertainty for reserve officials and for the forecast. it maybe foreshadowing a weakening in the data were going to see. alix: one bright spot has been the housing market that you cover quite closely. you were looking at the homeowner vacancy rates versus the rental vacancy rate. they have both been declining. what does that tell you about where we are in the housing recovery? >> on one hand you can argue that means that demand for housing, whether it be for ownership or for rental, has actually been out -- outpacing the supply of housing, which is quite favorable in terms of the outlook for the housing stock and construction. it's quite clear that is happening in the rental market. if you look at the rental vacancy rate, it has plunged
4:35 pm
lower from where we were prior to the crisis. rates are verycy elevated right now, suggesting there is a great deal of rental demand. i would say where we are in the , it's probablyy still capacity for further expansion. scarlet: what about pricing? at how much home sales are being bid above their asking price, you're looking at at least 20%. are there parts of the market that are overheating? >> that's a really good point. given the slow housing recovery, if we think about the different aspects, the gain in prices has been faster and construction has been much slower. if you look at home prices relative to local area income, there are reasons why things are
4:36 pm
overheated, parts of california for example. bubbleeas that were in a have increased rapidly as well. i think the fact that home are rising so much is another indication that we do need to increase supply. do we see a v-shaped recovery in the housing market? with all the data point you have, construction not keeping up with the home prices, there is not enough supply, what does that mean? >> it's not a v-shaped recovery. there are clearly constraints in they're how quickly willing to increase construction and expand the housing stock.
4:37 pm
there are things that are holding back the recovery. credit, both in terms of mortgage credit for the home buyer and construction credit for the homebuilders. so it's not a v-shaped recovery, ors much more of a u-shaped l-shaped recovery. fall,t: as gas prices it's supposed to put more money in her pocket so we have more to spend. housing rates are completely different animal. >> it is. the drop in gasoline prices has not been large enough to allow for people to make a down payment. the way i think about the drop in gasoline prices, it increases purchasing power and makes the seller more confident. it allows you to go out and buy more discretionary items than you could before. it puts the men of better financial position, but i don't think it's at the point where
4:38 pm
it's going to make or break them from buying a house. the security in the labor market, disposable in -- income growth, wage inflation. alix: what is keeping you up at night? it seems like there are a lot of variables in the market. >> i have a toddler who does not know how to sleep all night. [laughter] i think i would go back to just the nature of the cycle. we've seen unprecedented monetary policy response from the fed and a lot of the other central banks. in terms of economic performance , it's not been spectacular. i do think that as we approach the exit, as the fed starts to pull back, what will that unveil in terms of the health of the economy? i do think the fed is preparing to hike rates in september,
4:39 pm
4:41 pm
4:42 pm
only 92,000 times. torlet: this is going percolate through to the rest of the economy and to earnings. theuch for that idea that s&p 500 energy companies are doing just fine. alix: it is not just a blip. to the topt's get headlines at this hour. chrysler's winning streak is alive and well. rose 1.7% last month. kuester cells have gone up for 65 straight month. general motors salt declines, but not as much as expected. nissan, honda, and toyota with smaller than estimated drops. alix: tesla may be ready for deliveries of its suv by the end of the month which would be in line with the ceos timetable.
4:43 pm
they been told they can start customizing their vehicles, painte thing -- selecting color and we'll size. scarlet: google is changing its logo. the company says it's designed on mobile the focus devices. google says the changes will identify ther to search sign on the smallest devices like the apple watch. chinese manufacturing data missing estimates, fanning concerns that even more declines are in store. scarlet: developing marketing -- million.uities off $2 for more perspective on china, let's bring in the chief investment officer.
4:44 pm
if you come inside my bloomberg terminal, what you see is the shanghai large-cap shares, and alex and i were looking at this earlier. around 2:00 p.m. you see a move up. over the last four days, we've seen this move up, and that would be intervention in the stock market from the government. in 1997. asi think the national team the government is down in china has been propping up the larger cap names. at the same time you're seeing a pretty massive selloff within the small cap names. there is some order to the madness in terms of valuations going from a peo 130 back below 60, whereas the large-cap names with just a pe of over 20 are down to around 13 right now. in addition to the government coming in later in the day, we
4:45 pm
-hong konghe shanghai stock connect. we did see in a day trading where foreign value buyers were coming in and buying the large-cap blue-chip names as well. it wasn't just the government. alix: what happens after thursday? many have speculated they are propping up the markets into that. but after thursday come you never know what is going to happen. david wu over at bank of america verily joined us last week. here is what he said. we are now about four years away from the parade to celebrate the end of the war. presumably why the stock market -- why the chinese started to intervene in the stock market. certainly base our respect is very important in china. into thepride going victory of japan they within china.
4:46 pm
it's known as the war against japanese aggression, so a lot of national pride. we are also seeing lack of support within that mid-cap and small-cap. so some sense of normalcy is returning to the market. scarlet: what does that mean in terms of what the government does next? is it taking stock of how intervention has worked so far? defense,k in their foreigners have no way to access the shenzhen market. names were always kept trading. so they knew there was no foreign value investor coming in to keep the market from completely collapsing due to the extensive use of margins. they did prop it up. now they're letting that market go, and it could shoot to the downside for valuations. the large companies are getting down to one standard deviation
4:47 pm
away from the average. that is a fantastic buy signal to any market from a valuation perspective. they seem to be tracking each other quite closely. what is leading what? >> within china, you've had a slowing within the traditional sectors of the market. financials, basically materials, industrials are clearly slowing due to the exports where they have been adversely affected by the strong renminbi. the traditional parts of the economy are growing, at the same time were seeing strong retail sales within china. retail sales is up 10.6% in june. up 10.5% in june. where you invest in china is very important right now. if you focus to the old sectors of the economy, it is a value be moret there could
4:48 pm
pain they're potentially. at the same time, domestic consumption is rising and you want to get exposure to the e-commerce and internet names. we're fixated so much on the chinese retail investor. >> the complacency around margin is leverage. within china, the use of margin is extensive. that lesson has been learned in a hard way. we want to see the regulators come in with suitability standards like we have here in the u.s. the chinese a very conservative in many respects in terms of how they invest. valuations, the money went into the stock market. they are more conservative. there is no day trading in china. there are misperceptions around chinese investors. they have been overblown a little bit.
4:49 pm
4:51 pm
4:52 pm
surprisingly good terms for investors. yields.e search for china and the u.s. are not the only place we have seen massive market volatility today. we also sartor -- saul turmoil in the emerging markets as a whole. the drop came after the government projected a budget of $8.4next year billion. the head of american research joins us now to discuss this and the emerging markets overall. the fear is that there is movedation brazil will be to junk credit rating. >> it's interesting, you mention ukraine. mexico and brazil were the best targets last week. not to say brazil is in a great
4:53 pm
place. shares quite a lot of the problems. currencies have come down a lot here. em earnings have also come down. that's why has done so well in brazil. alix: in some capacity or zeal china. exposed to 35% of their exports go to china . what is the china factor here? >> most of brazil's exports go but it's reasonably small in relative terms. the story on the currency is quite interesting. if you looking at how does
4:54 pm
brazil rebalance its economy? the currency arguably got to strong at one point. not only brazil but you see it across a lot of emerging markets. earnings have been crushed over the last years. wage growth is rising more strongly than gdp growth. biggest what's the misconception that exist with emerging markets, whether it's brazil or others? that's lumping a lot of things into two words, emerging markets. ways, mexico is the opposite of brazil, any which way you want to look at it.
4:55 pm
is biggest misconception when we lump them all together. alix: look at the the valuation of developed and emerging markets. where are we and it what level do they become attractive? >> you have two currencies, 20% depreciation of currency. interesting is the relative level of earnings. i would argue it some major bits of emerging markets are overriding right now. you used to have the highest margins in the world and now at the lowest. you have this valuation letdown. over the medium-term, that's where you're going to make your money. there are concerns on growth primarily out of china. the flip side of that, if the
4:56 pm
concerns begin to ease at any point, the way to play that is through emerging markets. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us today. this, a brazilss rate decision is coming out. they have cut seven times -- excuse me, increased their rate seven times. what will they do now? with ae dealing depreciating currency as well. in addition, you have industrial production coming out from brazil. take a look inside my bloomberg terminal. up relative tog where we saw it back in 2011. it doesn't look as bad as 2008. scarlet: it could always be worse. u.s. productivity is out tomorrow. this is a revision of the second quarter number. this will probably get revised up as well.
5:00 pm
93 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
Bloomberg TV Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on