host 1: i am mike barnicle. heilemann.m john with all do respect to kanye west, maybe you should consider something more modest. ♪ >> or, trump as president. john: mike barnicle is back

tonight. of trump.et levelbashing to the next yesterday. it reminded some of the willie horton ad. the first response came in the form of a video this morning. >> my views are a little bit different. ♪ >> partial-birth abortion. >> i am very pro-choice. >> as far as single-paye as far as single-payer, it works in canada and scotland. i think hillary clinton is a terrific woman and i have known her for years. right.n: all he took a second swinging into

languages. in spanish, he said that donald would insult anyone who doesn't agree with him. in english, this. >> he supports democrats. i was campaigning for conservative-minded candidates. as apports hillary clinton good negotiator for a deal with iran. this is not a guy who is a conservative. trump launched a counter offensive on twitter with this -- that is not where he ended. he did not stop there. he released another video. recognize the commitments to public service. i want to say thank you to secretary clinton and the president.

>> what does that make hillary clinton to the bush family? >> a dilemma. duke it out every single day, it seems. who won? mike: we did. the media. the average temperature across the united states in september is 96 degrees and people are looking for a swimming pool. these have energized the media to pay more attention to people who do not need attention paid to. jeb: it is interesting that is not giving up on the notion of painting trump as the closet democrat. and, you have someone like schmidt go on television and say that trump is effectively

bush.lateing is theonsider that jeb only one still in the conversation because of this. john: in the short term, his performance is not that great. i like the idea of the bilingual attack on trump. i sort of like that. i think there is a long game here. if you believe mike murphy, there will be trump and anti-trump. jeb bush and john kasich are the ones they think about. mike: we are not talking about john kasich. we're talking about jeb bush. asich if you're a k- fan, you wonder why he is not going after him. mike: we will call it a draw. republican caucus-goers

say they like the way that donald trump tells it like it is. successe is business and that he is not a career politician. say it comes to trump, they they see what they want. some think he is liberal, moderate, conservative. ben carson is catching up. what is going on? john: it is fascinating that his able-unfavorable improved in this. it is interesting that there is hrshach thing happening. who support trump are believers that barack obama was not born in the united states.

mike: you skip iowa on the way to yosemite. what do you think about the fact that ben carson is drawing even with all trump in iowa with no media exposure? do you think that donald trump really cares about the numbers? john: yes. to the first point, we will talk about ben carson. know he isangelicals out there more than we see. i think trump is more obsessed with polls than any other candidate in history. it is the way he shows that he is winning. mike: do you think that he is pulling the tabs? john: i think he sees the top

line number that says he is first and everyone else is dropping. well.ow i'lowa e: the evangelicals. john: you think he will crumble? mike: i think he will lose. john: mike does not believe that donald trump's favorite book is the bible. coons putand chris on upholding short a veto. deal a donean deal? think it is ever a done deal until they cast ballots. in the words of joe biden. this is a big -- deal.

freakin'! mike: it is a signature moment for the middle east. an enormousas spent amount of time and energy over the last couple of years. john: for a long time, i thought they would get to the point where obama has gotten too, more or less, overriding and sustaining a veto. i think he will get enough democrats to filibuster a republican resolution of disapproval and keep it from ever passing. and durbin will come back get the uncommitted democrats. if he gets nine of the 12 democrats to be in favor, he wins the whole thing. obama wins cleanly. i agree with you that it is a big deal. he succeeds in getting

enough votes to filibuster, that enhances the image of the presidency and the united states abroad. john: i think that that is true. there is no doubt this would be a huge part of a foreign-policy legacy. do you think this would be the signature achievement a john kerry as the secretary of state? mike: unless he somehow manages, in the waning months of the obama administration, the 18 a peace accord between israel and the palestinians. john: it would be amazing if he did that. the state department release 7000 pages of hillary clinton's e-mails. no major bombshells. does this make clinton better, worse, or who cares? john: i think that this is a wash. there is incredible stuff in

this. -- time mike: what about lanny davis? john: sidney blumenthal writing crazy letters is juicy and gives you a window into how much tension there was between clinton and obama early. forerms of the politics, most voters, this does not get to the questions the fbi is getting at. it will not hurt her. i do not think it solves the problem or makes a worse. mike: the e-mails are not the problems, other than the embarrassment factor. you never want your or my e-mails released the way these are. the way it has been handled, we the way this yesterday, hillary clinton handles e-mails remind so many people of "let's

not go back there." john: your favorite was lanny davis. tell us. mike: he is a longtime clinton acolytes in washington. he is begging hillary clinton to say something or anything nice about him in a magazine piece on his lawen in n firm. it is her rent this. horrendous.s john: would you say it is a unctuous? mike: if i knew what that meant. ♪

we have two guests

tonight. from des moines and san francisco, guys, you have been digging into these i'll what numbers and i want to start with iowa numbershese and i want to start with you. at? are they looking what do the numbers reflect? when we create poll ar trump hase he nothing on the issues and that he is thin. do you want more specific policy positions before you decide to vote or, are you comfortable with a person figuring it out when they are in the white house?

arejority says they comfortable for them to be in the white house. it is a little bit higher for . the heart ofhe the question is, is donald trump playing with different rules than the other candidates? i don't think he is. mike: ben carson has no qualifications and he is free eveneven -- pretty much with him. help aw that ad buys candidacy. ben carson's media campaign is waving out of a window in a passing car as he arrives in town. how is is happening? guest 2: it is interesting. i am the ad geek. donald trump is sucking up so

much attention. iowa, he is getting free media. donald trump dominates the air. he has an advantage in the airwaves. when you expect paid advertising to have an impact is when one side is up and the other is not. he has had the airwaves to himself. there is a little bit from bobby jindal and lindsey graham. looking at a poll, it seems to have had an impact. you on will stick with this question. the fact that ben carson is doing so much advertising in iowa is widely unknown, outside of those advertisements. it is not the case with hillary clinton. she has the airwaves to herself in iowa and her numbers are

getting worse and worse. how do you explain that? guest 2: it is interesting and it may be something that the folks having breakfast in a naval observatory may pay attention to. she has had the airwaves to herself for the last month. she has gone down. obviously, there is a national media environment going on and other issues. toyou have the airwaves yourself and you are not moving the numbers in a positive way, what will happen when everybody else is up and you are taking shots in paid media. it is a little bit of a tell and something the vice president's folks are looking at. mike: a key thing is listening to the people you are polling. do you hear an overwhelming strain above others?

or "i amigovernment" anti-politician?" guest 1: people have been disappointed with the way things are going. they say the nation is heading in the wrong direction for years and years. have changed and they do not feel like there is any change. you look at the top of the republican take it and people who have never held office. if voters are saying they are ready to take the risk because they are so disappointed with the people who have the records that they say that there is somebody who sounds like their gut is right and let's take a chance. lot of time spent a

about the headlines out of the polls with donald trump being at where he is at and ben carson and hillary clinton. you have a couple of things to focus on that have been overlooked. a hidden winner and loser. winner ishe hidden bobby jindal. his favorability has grown 18%. more people know who he is and they like him. it has not translated into votes. he is lurking with upside potential. paul.dden loser is rand he was believed to have had a benefit with his father in the state for two election cycles. quantityen a known

with a libertarian bent. to 39%.wn from 55% he is the hidden loser. john: the hidden winners and the hidden losers -- the top four have a combined 65%. cruzare trump, carson, and feiorina. scott walker was believed to be doing good in iowa. what you do at this stage? guest 2: there is bad news for governor walker in that. he has gone down in iowa polling and ann's polling.

it is a crowded atmosphere and it is not getting easier to get the message out. a thing about donald trump is that he was sucking up all of the oxygen at a time when a candidate should be a first mover and introduce himself. he will have to recalibrate and figure something out. it is an angry electorate. those people, ted cruz is a senator, but you would not call him establishment. two of them have never run for elected office in their life. electorategry looking outside. obama.y not just dislike they don't like republicans in congress. john: let me finish with you in a few quick seconds -- donald

trump, the anger is good for him. does he have room to grow in iow a? guest 1: five months ago, people said that he has hit a ceiling. on favorability makes me think he has upside potential. who knows? we will see. john: thank you. coming up, what is hillary hiding in the e-mails? we will show you after these words from the sponsors. ♪

mike: we mentioned that the state department released 7000 pages of hillary clinton's e-mails. the conventional wisdom is that there are no smoking guns. the opponents are creative. we put a team together to look at the attacks that might soon be coming her way. >> we have waited.

>> i want the e-mails out. >> they are here. >> thousands of pages of e-mails are online. >> what about this? forwarded a story about a masked man that someone in a hillary clinton mask robbed a bank. >> scandalous e-mail after scandalous e-mail. >> she asked a top aid to help her learn an h-pad. filtefish.e >> it is nice to know she is a leslie fan. >> is she a fan of hers? clintonelse is hillary hiding? john: a controversial jewish

delicacy. ♪

john: all right. there has been in of controversy over the cnn debate criteria on how you get on the debate stage. they were taking two months of polls. we heard they are shortening up to early august to the debate. that is better for the candidates on the rise, like early fee arena -- carly fi orina. should she want to be on the main stage? or, which should be better off on the undercard? mike: i think she is better off on the main stage. chris christie is the loser. he will be replaced by carly. john: you don't think it would

be better for her to dominate and claim persecution? she makes some sense, more so than the other candidates. all right, we are on twice a day. for now, sayonara. ♪

>> stocks are selling off and investors wonder if september could be worse than august. take a look at the innovative company. emily chang: this is bloomberg west. will volatility cause a liquidity crisis? --udge ordered that uber giving netflix a n