miss?" alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu. u.s. stocks closing higher today with the s&p jumping. scarlet: the question is, "what'd you miss?" a sigh of relief. china closes its turning markets for a holiday. what is next for the u.s. economy during turbulent times and what does it mean for

interest rates? oil price decline. how asia may have triggered these low prices. it all goes back to china. we begin with the market. we're looking at stocks closing around session highs. the dow ending up 200 points. the nasdaq seeing a gain of 2% within the s&p. utility was the laggards on the day. industrials leading the market. the 10 year, the yield has the biggest move up in a week. scarlet: the nasdaq has turned positive for the 2015. the monster volume we saw, investors were pulling money out of investor funds. $27 billion worth, the biggest withdrawal in two years according to ici.

stock funds saw outflows of $1 billion in redemptions. funds blended with stocks and bonds. $4.3 billion pulled out. alix: due to the catastrophe we have seen in the markets, is anybody going to commit big on the long side? we get a nice rally today but in theory is this going to be an uptrend if china cannot stabilize? breaking news on pimco. let's get right to matt miller in the newsroom. matt: the total return fund has fallen below $100 billion in assets for the first time since 2007. the total return fund at the end of august, 98.5 billion dollars. this is after 28 months in a row of redemptions.

net outflows at pimco because people were concerned about interest rates or bill gross leaving them if they have been pulling money out since april 2013. it is the first time this find, which was a $300 billion fund at its peak, the first time since 2007 before the crisis it has worked with less than $100 billion in assets under management. pimco total return fund now has lower than $100 billion in assets for the first time in eight years. investors pulling money out for the 28, the 29th month in a row of outflows. doesn't look fantastic unless they feel like working with less money.

bill gross says big is beautiful. alix: he likes big better. thank you. i want to take a dive into my terminal to look at what is really going on in the economy. you are looking at the import of the four major ports in the united states, savannah, long beach, new jersey, new york. long beach has had a big increase in the last few months. what does this show us? we are buying stuff, importing things and buying things. that could be interpreted as a sign of a stronger consumer dollar. nonetheless we are buying stuff. that is what the chart tells us. scarlet: stuff, not necessarily virtual stuff on your smart phone. i will take a look at the s&p

500 correlations with the shanghai index. who would have thought what happened in shanghai would have such a direct impact. this is the correlation. you can see a big move up over the past two weeks. let's zoom in here on this year in particular. 2015. we zoom in on this area. you have negative correlations for the first two months. in the third quarter we modeled around here. july and august, we pretty much go to the highest since the early 1990's. one thing to note, everyone can breathe a sigh of relief because markets are closed. we have labor day on monday. alix: for more on markets i want to bring in our guest joining us from stanford this afternoon. we have trauma when it comes to

stocks over the last few weeks. what do we do with an s&p when we see a 1% decline in september which is historically a bad month? guest: historically when you have a weak august, and start the month of september week my the rest of the month is weaker than the normal september. that from a seasonal perspective may not be positive. looking at the rest of the year, with the short-term situation septembers have been weak when , we see a weak start. it is a seasonal pattern and something to keep an eye on but they are not the only thing you want to pay attention to. alix: you are looking at technicals. you gave us a chart on the 10 day advance on the decline which shows an oversold condition. we can be oversold for a long

time before things snap back. what does the data show when it comes to the time horizon? guest: the 10 day line has gotten polarized. alix: what is the 10 day line? guest: every day you look at the s&p 500. you add up the last 10 days. when you have a very high positive number it means the market has been rallying. it usually refers to the mean. when you have a negative level eventually it reverts to the mean as well. we looked going back to 1990 where we saw oversold levels. what is interesting is what we have seen here, when you look at the extreme level last monday, going forward in the short term you see mixed returns skewed to the negative. it is a big earthquake here. the market is in chaos.

over time you have aftershocks. things settled down. look out the next week, slightly negative returns. better than average for compared to all periods. you tend to see big swings up and down like we have been seeing and no shortage of. scarlet: what i loved in the charts you pointed out to us, you went beyond to look at dental visits as opposed to say visits to the mall for consumer confidence. why dental visits? guest: in our consumer poll survey what we do is survey over 1000 to 1500 consumers every

month and we get their views on everything from the economy to store visit, their job situation, and dental visits. every american has health insurance now but most americans, especially employer-provided insurance, a lot of jobs provide health insurance but not until insurance. it is an out-of-pocket experience. if your pocketbook is tight and you're short on cash no one much to go to the dentist to begin with. you're going to put that off as much as possible. what we have seen in the last month, the highest percentage of people who made a visit to the dentist. it sounds crazy but it is one of those offbeat indicators and confirms what we have seen in the employment picture, housing which is on the glide path forward now. and guess prices falling. consumers with better pocketbooks and where they need

to go spend money they will spend it. that goes hand in hand with pork traffic rising. you have a strong dollar. americans are buying more stuff. we're seeing companies that export get hurt here big time. they have a lot of international exposure. alix: more upbeat on the economy. good stuff. thank you. when we come back, which major bank issued a full house by call and european stocks? alix: i just got that. ♪ alix: before the break we asked

which bank issued a full house high for europe? scarlet: morgan stanley. here is the chart that proves it. this is the first full house by since 2009. we will see if this pans out. alix: turning back to the u.s., the job report will come out in two days. we are two weeks away from the fed's big meeting. scarlet: foreign-exchange reserves are being drawn down in what is being called quantitative tightening. alix: good to have you. when you look at the central banks winding down reserves, do you feel like this is quantitative tightening? are we looking at less liquidity? guest: no. not necessarily. there are stages of length and

it's broader measures of credit. they can easily offset that through buying domestic assets or reducing reserve requirements. those measures can offset any affect that declining reserves would have on narrow money. and then on to broad money. if we were in the case of china, we would expect lending rates to be going up and we are not really seeing that. central banks have a strong ability to control domestic interest rates and liquidity conditions, even if currency values are out of their hands. >> there has been a lot of volatility. traders have push back their timing for a rate hike in september. suggesting they may gel around september lift off.

what does that mean when it comes to future increases? do we use 2% inflation as a yardstick? guest: one thing the committee has agreed on is they are going to be driven by their forecasts and not current inflation. the forecasts differ. i thought it was interesting is they talked about the pace of increases after the first hike, and he wants me to be slow and gradual. it is interesting he didn't use this argument to push back the timing of the first hike. we do find it interesting that the fed speak hasn't pushed against this too hard. alix: we did see an increase in wages.

what is the turning point here? guest: i do think we are seeing decline in unemployment. we should see nominal wages pick up even with the strong number we got, productivity is still below one person and has been running below 1% on average for a number of years. real wages are going over the past five years, faster than productivity. him wages are not doing what we want to. is that a function of a bad labor market or slow productivity? it could be the latter. scarlet: i want to talk on that. we need to get in here a question about jobs. this is the number everyone was watch for as we wait to see what happens out of china.

the adp number argues the jobs market is fairly robust. guest: adp doesn't have a perfect track record and forecasting non-foreign payrolls that we are looking for something around 200,000. it seems consistent with that. there does seem to be a little bit of a downward bias. right now most of the indicators when we step back and look at them, labor market is not a lot to complain about. pretty solid job growth. guest: what number with the -- with the fed need to see to not move? guest: if we saw the unemployment take up that would be a problem or if we saw payroll below $150,000. that may be a problem. the payroll is not a single number. it is hard to pin it down on a single tipping point. scarlet: thank you for your perspective. alix: when we come back, is the

white gold rush over in new zealand? we have a chart on the milk price slump that you can't miss.

alix: we told you about the global slump in prices. scarlet: take a look at this chart, the decline in whole milk powder prices in new zealand. gary products are new zealand's biggest export. the reason for the decline is china's economic slow down. chinese people are trying to buy imported milk powder. alix: oil prices are down 20%

last three months. it is starting before they devalue the yuan. my go-to guy on anything energy, we need to star in asia and take a look at diesel inventory. why is this important? guest: clearly the last couple of weeks we have seen a lot of up-and-down movement linked to economic use. what we have seen is over the course of this year strong demand growth for gasoline, which has encourage refineries to run hard. not the same kind of growth for diesel. these refineries are geared to produce a lot of diesel. stocks have been building up in asia. they are being encouraged by margins and gasoline. and simply add to the diesel volume and build up.

alix: when does it turn around? at some point margins fall enough, therefore they will stop buying as much crude. guest: we have seen a lot of value come out of that diesel crack spread. the challenges the gasoline until recently, the pricing has been trying to encourage them. we are seeing the overall asian refining margins fall away. that is a combination of continued weakness on the diesel side and weakness on gasoline with the short-lived reductions in chinese gasoline demand. that is starting to incentivize cut's by asian refineries. as the refinery start to announce it can boost the margins and put off of the refiners from cutting back in reducing.

we may see more diesel coming into the system. alix: the reason why this is the coolest thing ever, as we see this build up an inventory, they wind up exporting it. that leaves us with product in the global market. which does have implications for the oil price. guest: it is not confined to asia or china. exports are on the rise. today we have the chinese authorities giving another round of export quotas. this gives them -- this permits them to increase the volumes. it is a signal that the expectation is china's markets going to remain oversupplied and more is going to make its way out into the regional market and global market. that puts pressure on refiners elsewhere and if those margins fall away then we will see crude demand from the refinery coming under pressure in reducing in other regions as well.

scarlet: is asia, is china more or less transparent when it comes to the determining oil and supply dynamics. how much can we extrapolate about u.s. or global inventories? guest: clearly people have concerns of the quality of chinese data. it is not as reliable as the u.s. data. many parts of the oil market are less transparent and covered and we would like. everywhere out side it is difficult to get your hands on reliable data. what analysts and people have to do is the best we can, make estimates and fill in the gaps. the chinese could give you enough of an indication, although there is a lot of concern about the health of the economy, what we saw in the first half of the economy was chinese demand growing strongly that growing in the consumer

part rather than traditional diesel, fuel oil. the oil data we have got has been telling an interesting story about the rebalancing of the chinese economy. it has had implications for the global market in terms of not actually driving the oversupply that has been the headline factor. certainly contributing more detailed headaches for refiners and the global system as it tries to work through this oversupply of crude and work out when we get to rebalance. alix: you guys have one of the lowest estimates on the street. oil to go into the 30's. when you look at the oil market, what is your number one concern? what keeps you up at night?

guest: we saw some volatile flat price moves. our averages $50 a barrel. i think when we look at the oil market, on the geopolitical analyst. what is being underpaid attention to is the extent a nature of supply risk out there. low oil prices mean low revenue for nigeria, venezuela. that is feeding into political instability. right now it doesn't matter because we are oversupplied. we could cope with a loss of supplied by the that attracts it we can see the balance shift. alix: great stuff. thank you very much. scarlet: we'll be right back. ♪

alix: do not miss this. the ecb holding its monthly meeting thursday. we get the rate decision. take a look into my bloomberg terminal. the nominal effective exchange rate for the euro moved higher, and has become a safety play in the last few weeks.

that could mean a lot to mario draghi. scarlet: the unwinding that has been so popular for so long. that is all for "what'd you miss?" thank you for watching. ♪

>> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. gil degrasse tyson is here. many know him as the most powerful nerd in the universe. he calls himself simply a servant of science. he is the host of a new talk show on the national geographic channel called start talk. it combines science, culture, and comedy to help bring the universe down to earth. i'm pleased to have him back at this table. when did you know that what you wanted to do was be an astrophysicist? neil: