>> cleared the end central-bank -- the european central bank meets to set inflation prices. thea's military might, nation holds a lavish parade to market 70 years since the end of world war ii. and a warning from the imf. the fed should be data-dependent and normalize policy gradually. that is the advice as it sets out ahead of the g-20 meeting. welcome to countdown. i am an edwards. it is 6:00 here in london this

thursday morning. today toal bank meets discuss policy. expectations are that it will update the forecast for inflation, and giveve investors clues as to whether it will change easing program. investors will be listening closely to any comments from mario about the slowdown in china. hans nichols joins us now from berlin. the morning to you. what are we listening for? hans: if mario starts off his press conference in mandarin, you know it is a bad sign. but what we're really looking for are two things. what do they do? expectations, if they do change, what sort of pants will there be for what they may do? they could maybe talk about hinting clues, extending it beyond september 2016. when you look at expectations,

the big question is how are they going to factor in the lower price of oil. when we saw they did in june, when they had expectations for 0.3%. look at a price in june, the price of oil they were thinking of -- about $63 a barrel. they hit all the way down to $43 a barrel last month. when you look at last month, the inflation numbers across major economies, here is what we see in europe -- far below that 0.3%. take a look at germany at 0.2%. france is 0.2%. spain is a negative numbers. italy is higher. we had a strong message last night from the international monetary fund. to all central bankers, saying do not even think about raising interest rate. that is not really in play here. right? what the imf is saying, no one really expects a court decision on the benchmark rate for the ecb to change. but it is a hint that the imf really does see the effect of

oil has not done much to spur growth. take a look at some of the inflation numbers are, just when you factor in oil, you see fuel 8.4transport down negative %. food is up, look at electric gas and household fuel --that is down -3.4%. we are looking down, will they tweak the forecast? what he says about china, in some ways, this is much more interesting than the actual rate decision. and the central bank president versus are always fun because we come with them that the assumption that central bankers are smarter than us. and no more than us. it is very difficult for journalists to extract any information. it is fun. you have to try. anna: chances are he will not be speaking mandarin. asked aly if he is question in latin. there are some things that the

ecb can do on greece. they can actually say the banks have access to non-liquidity assistance. funding,rmal lines of that could really pressure. the decision on greece is important. you may also indicate it will be easier for the ecb to buy greek debt, or make it even possible to buy greek debt. they're not buying it now. that could be a major change. there could be greek news on the margin. but everyone really looking at those inflation expectation. anna: thank you very much. hans nichols with everything you need to watch for from the ecb. stay with bloomberg for what you need to know on the decision-making around interest rates, qe, inflation forecast. we bring you live coverage on the policy and then the news conference 45 minutes later. ecb news time for the

conference. now to the federal reserve. ahead of tomorrow's jobs report, before the key september meeting, the central bank released it survey. it expanded across most regions and industries in july and august, the report shows labor markets boosted wages for some workers. phil mattingly breaks it down for us. phil: expanded across most positiveproviding a look for policymakers. that is according to anecdotal surveys from the 12 regional banks. six reported moderate growth, and five reported modest. the survey covers july through mid august and says a mixed picture. there was positive growth overall, five districts reporting a strong dollar had dampened many manufacturing activities. wages were higher in three districts -- cleveland, st. louis, san francisco.

home sales were increasing in every district. most district so modest labor demand. all of this information compiled gives fed policymakers a new set of data to consider in the weeks before the september open market committee meeting. one thing they will consider, whether to raise rates for the first time since 2006. second-quarter growth at 3.6% and job growth at a steady clip, still, policymakers are facing extreme concern over china's economic health. given the timeframe, there was little mention about the recent market turmoil -- something certain to marmatter the policymakers in just two weeks. back to you. anna: let's talk about breaking news we are getting here in europe. it surrounds the swiss crop science business. they are coming out with an update on performance and

purchasing of chair. it seems they're going to accelerate the activity, they're going to divest global vegetable seed operation. they announced a share repurchase, that is the headline coming through. the initial repurchase will be over $2 billion. they also want to drive partnerships and investments. 2015 guidanceeir back in july, saying they are confident in their 2018 margin targets. remember, this is a business that had been very recently a receiving attention from rivals in monsanto. it does appear that the activity givewe shoulaw will independent futures, i guess. that coming through, we will watch that in our time when the stock opens up. let's head to asia. is closedai composite

today, as china separates a two-day bank holiday. juliet is in hong kong. what is trading today? juliet: anna, a much-needed from investors. we are seeing buying in the asian region. for the first time this week, the fact that we are seeing that to ivan day public holiday and that one-day of the holiday in hong kong, the markets are trading higher. good games coming through today -- stocks being helped out by south korea. second-quarter gdp in line with what the market was looking for. it has come back from earlier gains property flat the moment. weakness is in the 100, a bit of a pulldown in new zealand. disappointing sales figures from australia today which really railed on sentiment. you can see here that big drop in the retail sales number when it was released. it still seems to be some

resistance to that 70 sent u.s. level. even though it is weaker against the greenback, it is holding that level. to some of the major movers we are watching in the asian region today, we have seen good pickup coming through as i mentioned on that japanese stocks. toyota looking good, i tell coy co looking good. samsung doing the heavy lifting. the banking stocks across the region found market cap on the regional benchmark fell almost 2%. myer also having a big fall. generally, sentiment much more proper. with that to ivan day reprieve from the china market. anna: thanks, juliet. close more than 2% at the for a last-minute sprint on u.s. equity. let's turn our attention to china today, even the markets are closed.

a huge parade marking the defeat of japan in world war ii is taking place in beijing. a number of world leaders and officials were in attendance, including vladimir putin and you and secretary-general. showcasedce which hundreds of weapons, including listing missile launches, also featured 12,000 chinese soldiers. despite the unprecedented display of china's might, the president used the occasion to announce the biggest cost to the military since 1997 -- and the commitment to peace. for more, let's go to david joins us now from hong kong. david, good to see you. what kind of message was he trying to send with this announcement? david: the announcement about the 300,000 cuts to the troops of the standing army was a bit of a surprise. and some of the chinese academics i spoke to afterward said he is sending a message, to

calm the nerves of the neighbors -- particularly those in the south china sea. nhen you are wheeling a intercontinental ballistic march square, asnmen far as a way as united states, i reckon you are giving another message to the world as well. i would add the 300,000 personnel cuts, it is probably foreshadowed a big reorganization of the military. to make it look a little more like the u.s. military with a central commander over their main military. anna: how big -- we're hearing about the cuts question mark put it into context. how big is a military right now? david: the context is that we're looking at a standing army of 2.3 million people. that is the entire number, more than 10%.

the other thing to point out though, although china has his massive military and it is budget, it10% in the is still really lagging behind united states. it is only spending about half its budget, or less than half, compared to the united states. so it really has a long way to catch up, if it wants to go that far. anna? putin -- he is going to be a controversial display. many world leaders decided to stay away or send more junior delegates. right.that is vladimir putin was there. you can see a tit for tat. he was in moscow for the parade vladimir putin held. putin needs friends. china is an important friend. what do we see? andaw most of the allies

their leaders stay away. we also had the south korean who was there. she has another agenda, she wants to smooth up. g unis playing off kim jun in korea. she is trying to get a summit together with japan. that is something we will look at carefully in terms of geopolitical moves over the next couple of moves. anna: david joining us there from hong kong. we are getting breaking news this time from johannesburg. the skoda caroline hyde. she has the details. caroline: this is how the commodity impact is affecting the second-biggest miner of platinum in the world. it is cutting production, raising more money -- 4 billion worth.

they just posted a $4 billion loss of random. is as the price of platinum slumps -- down 60% year-to-date. and they say the reason for raising the money, the price of platinum will be lower for longer. they're cutting overall costs and expenditure, cutting the cost budget. here is the ramification of what we see when commodity selloffs and the corporations respond. anna: thank you. responding to that falling commodity pricing. coming up on the program, a warning from the imf. what it sees as the increased risk to the global economy, including disruptive asset financial turmoil. to the majorown central banks. and a look at the future of innovation, we will check out the latest gadgets trying to be the next big thing. we are live from europe's

biggest tech fair in berlin. ♪

anna: welcome back, it is 70 minutes that 6:00. here of the stories you need to know this morning. weaker commodity prices slowing trade in the global equities, making it likely that the ecb will downgrade the inflation forecast today. economists say that action is unlikely to be announced after the meeting. but they will be watching for language indicating that the ecb 1.1 trillion euro program could be expanding. president is saying there is no threat to neighbors. leading a military parade to mark the end of the second world war, he announced army personnel would be reduced by 300,000. that is the biggest cut and study 97. thousands of soldiers are marching through the capital.

other military hardware is on display. nuclear dealma's with iran has moved closer. we have learned that he has enough votes to support it. 34 senators have now indicated they will back the agreements. meaning the president can stop opponents from overwriting it. both chambers of u.s. congress plan to debate the resolution on the nuclear deal next week. the latest gadgets, gizmos, and trends were on show at berlin's biggest show. we were there to figure out what tech fans were generating buzz. nate: one of the interesting things we have seen so far this week, and we were here before the show officially opens, we are standing in front of a construction site at the moment. one of the things we saw early yesterday, sony has announced the first 4k smartphone. to put that into perspective,

that is the new television technology that is the successor to high-definition. this is ultra high definition. upare normally seeing that to 100 inches, we're seeing this in a 5.5 inch smartphone. this is the first time we've seen it. i managed to get my face close to this, and i did notice a difference between this new phone and looking at the past ones. especially the iphone. that is getting heads turning this year. one of the other things we are seeing as well, a little bit more investment going on in wireless charging. we had intel showing off its basically increase the amount of power that can be transferred with wireless charging stations. the idea being that you can place a device on a surface, like a desk or workstation, and the device would charge without any wires. it is the holy grail of wireless charging. one of the few things we cannot do very well without wires is

charging. but we're starting to see developments come from a number increaseies to really the amount of power that can be transferred to devices without wires. anna: thank you very much. anyoneese stations stop from borrowing my charger? i would love that. steven spielberg's studio will part ways with disney. that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. here with more on the blockbuster news is caroline once again. caroline: i haven't got my script right. you will have to wait. anna: in fact, she is not available now. is's talk about what the ecb likely to do. let's get back to our top story. words a mario, they will be listening for any close whether they will seal up the qe program from china. let's get an economist

perspective, william from her mes investment. let's talk about the ecb. it seems to be there is an expectation that the market might cut back on the inflation forecast because of the assumption they have in making around oil prices when we last heard from them. super eyes today on mario. i don't think he is super today. recent events have probably pushed back inflation, given that the euro is about three and a half percent stronger. and oil is down about $15. on the other hand, the growth numbers have been moving quite nicely. i think he will need convincing that china as yet has had impact. i'm expecting the language to be fairly open, he will pick up the baton after the summer. any policy change would be a surprise. anna: i have a chart here of what the euro has done. what it has done against the

dollar. has this been not much of a headache for mario draghi? some people were talking about whether we would get the euro-dollar, now we are up around 1.12. it seems like it was the beneficiary of recent markets, will we get ahead of the trend questio. >> he will want to see the euro appreciated significantly. just like japan, the ecb is trying to throw as much cash as it can to weaken the euro. what he would be most concerned about is picking up again the baton of the qb. between the two this year, they will pick up financial markets approaching three force of a trillion dollars. he always told us before the summer he would lay off. and he would carry on after. i doubt this year ahead of the deadline he would tell us that

extension beyond september next year is coming through. so we will have to wait for that, for future months. anna: so we should not extend the timeline, but these programs? >> my concern has always been that he will have to extend it beyond 2016. not necessarily for china reasons. the concern i have is the history of qe. let's look at the u.s., u.k., and japan. after 17 years, once you have the tap on, hotties widget off? going forward, as they start to normalize policies, how they switch off qe at a time when controlling debt as a share of gdp is important. anna: talking about normalizing the fed released their forecast around the economy. it was a bit beige. the economy expanded across most regions.

how do you think that's sort of a backdrop, especially after the imf said they need to be data dependent and not rush with the interest rate hikes, moving gradually on interest rate, how does that set of the conversation for september? >> beige is good for them. maybe they will be wearing beige. it seems to me there is no need to go in september. i have always looked towards december, but more on inflation ground. if not inflation, illes by december, they will have cpi back over 1%. september will be looking under half a percentage point. it is far easier by december. but even then it will be a slow and gradual process, the move toward highest interest rates in the u.s. and the u.k. next year. baby steps. anna: they're try to work out just what kind of impact the

chinese turmoil we have seen is going to have on developed markets. and you think the chinese authorities need to do more to get a handle on their economy to stimulate the economy. what kind of stimulus are you looking for? neil: china has failed to deal with a symptom. now is the time to address the underlying problem. which is the economy, which clearly is slowing. but i have to say i lose more sleep about the president than china because even if china is growing at 4% and running out of steam, at least is still has it. and it does have the wherewithal to get things going. policy dashboard has far more buttons and certainly we do in europe. cuts willr rate follow, interest rates are still way higher than inflation. cuts in the reserve requirements, and no doubt the fiscal government could be pressed. if all else fails, they could even do qe to start buying up debt. anna: you are the second guest

in two days to talk about the place. i give her a much for joining us. good to see you. chief economist at hermes. the president of the ecb is feeling the pressure perhaps. more details when they return. ♪

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anna: welcome back. it is 6:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know. weaker commodity prices slowing trade and a global equities route make it likely that the ecb will downgrade inflation. economists say further policy action is unlikely to be announced. but they will be watching for language indicating that the central bank's 1.1 trillion euro expanded. should be the chinese president says he's committed to peace with a lament. speaking at the start of a military parade in beijing to mark the end of the second world

war, he announced army personnel would be reduced by 300,000. thousands of soldiers are marching to the capital, other military hardware is on display. interest benchmark rates remain unchanged, as policymakers signal they have done enough to bring the targets by 2016. after seven straight increases at 14.25%, as the company deals with record low confidence. now the european central bank as we said in those reports, their meeting today to set policy. the expectation is there could be a great deal of focus around inflation. does it say anything about their 1.1 trillion euros of qe? let's talk more with jamie murray. and our guest colin. assetng director at svm management.

jamie, let's start with you. what are your expectations? jaime: i'm not expecting any change in policy, no great deal on qe. the thing about china and the latest news in commodity prices is lately is that they did not catch the forecast. it will be interesting to see how mario draghi describes the effect of china, what he sees as the outlook. anna: for the forecast is too backward looking. there's a series of technical assumptions about asset prices. the cutoff point is mid august, one of captured the latest. anna: colin, good morning to you. what is your expectation? there is a report on the ground earlier saying the focus is good to be very much on his commentary around the market of elements. that is going to be of interest, rather than anything

specifically around policy. colin: i think even the disappearance of inflation again have to be worrying. always that the ecb has been more concerned about meeting inflation targets than any of the other central banks. this may be a hangover, but it always seems to care more about that. i think it is quite possible we will see some stimulus later in the year. anna: we had a number of guests talking about market inflation. they talk about the five years for this measure of expectation around inflation in the eurozone. and they talk about how they so that deteriorate over the summer. do you think that is something the ecb will be preoccupied with right now then? jaime: no. it has received focus from mario draghi in the past. but for unknown reasons, the five-year breakeven rate seems to be correlated with economy prices. as soon as they go back up, they plateau. you expect that plateau. the thing that is interesting

about the pricing, if you look at the futures curve, it is upward sloping -- much more so than the last time he published the forecast. you might lose inflation in the near term, you might see upward pressure in later years. it takes the pressure off the policy. anna: if you look back at where the oil price was for example in june. they last gave us the inflation forecast, there were talking about inflation of 0.3%. but they were defining an oil price of $63.80. we are down 40 something. the need to catch up to the downside, but then you suggest there is a further ramp up in inflation. jamie: exactly. in 2016, you will see downward inflation -- but not something upward. anna: they could take away the others. colin, what about the inflation route? have as that the banks

difficult task at hand, when we see days like we did last week of three days the oil price being up. it is unprecedented. there i think for metals, is a slight likelihood for rest pite. i think the potential for oil to squeeze up is there in a way it is not for iron ore. i think we will see separation out across the commodities. and what really is dead. anna: we are looking for investors to distinguish between the different commodities. and on what basis, based on the chinese growth? colin: it is not just china interacting with the dollar, and the position of other economies, i think for other exporters of commodities, they are forced into deflation and evaluation. ana: jamie think you very much. joining us with forecast expectations around the ecb. colin stays with us longer.

the swedish central bank is one of only three banks with a negative interest rate. and today, they will announce that goes in a lower. let's get now to bloomberg's jonas live in stockholm. good to see you. i understand the market is not expected to move. jonas: it has really been a couple of months since the last decision. there is a lot of uncertainty. shows aainly our survey clear majority of no change. there are other services out there, which are closer. it will be a close call and 9:30 in stockholm. anna: it seems like the central bank is stopping them from completely ruling out a cut. jonas: i would call them a reluctant activist. they are dealing with another problem right now, that they did not see in july.

it is this massive drop in commodity prices which is really going to force them probably to scale down the inflation forecast. and as you know, they have been struggling since getting up in inflation -- with deflation over the last three years. another problem they're having is a lot of analysts are saying they do not move today, either by cutting the rate again or expanding the qe program, they could see a stronger kroner. that is something they do not want. anna: we will see how kroner reacts. live in stockholm there. later today bloomberg speaks to the swedish governor. we will have more from the interview throughout the day. 6:37 in london. let's get back to colin. how are you negotiating the markets right now? this kind ofxpect

volatility? colin: it happens to be september. but quite early on, i think into next week, china did a good job of massaging its markets ahead of the holiday. i think they will be very nervous coming back on monday, whether china can still support. asa: does it make since you an investor that we are hanging on every move in the equity markets, as we have seen to do the last few weeks. the chinese stock market advanced to the extent that it did in 2015, we saw quite unreal moves higher in equities. we did not echo those moves in europe and the u.s. we did not echo them. on the way down, it seems like everybody is hanging on what the shanghai composite is doing. colin: i think we are looking at what the fed will do. and the impact of china on the fed at the moment is no impact.

looking at the book yesterday, of theere some signs border on mexico and canada, there is some impact now of a weakness in those regions. and i don't think the fed can carry on saying that this does matter -- china doesn't matter. so the market once a seat when the fed will take the rate rise further down the road. anna: we spoke to hans whitaker of morgan stanley yesterday. he sees the fed as increasingly international, more so than in the past. the last time they make decision about interest rates, it is so interesting that you point out the links between the u.s. and the canadian economy in that border economy, the canadian economy in recession of course. what is the extent of the feedback there from the weakness we're seeing in many of the commodity producing countries and in the chinese market into the u.s.? can it continue to show the strength it has shown in the face of weakness?

two impacts -- the strength of the dollar that is eased. and we will start to see that come to an end. results inig factor the last round, the other thing is what is happening of the selloff in some of the treasury assets from not only china but the american economies. if that starts to push up those 10-year yields in the u.s. that is another connection mechanism. anna: how you invest around this environment? how defensive have you become in the summer months, or did you see in the coming? colin: it is probably pushing us a little more into the defense stocks. but yesterday, we had stocks come out with pretty good numbers. i think there are still some growth and cyclicals as well.

some of those are linked to the u.s. economy. .k., a numbere u of things for example, i think those are still a pretty good time. anna: thank you very much, colin. 6:41 in london. stay with bloomberg, we bring you live coverage of the announcement of the news conference surrounding the ecb's interest-rate decision. whatever it says about inflation, it will be 12:45. still to come, we will look at today's top stories on bloomberg.com. including the man keeping the communityial whaling in iceland. ♪

anna: welcome back. it is 6:44 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. weaker commodity prices slowing trade and a global equities route make it likely that the

ecb will downgrade inflation. further policy information is unlikely. they will be watching for information indicating that the 1.1 trillion qe will be expanded. says he issident committed to be. speaking at the start of a military parade in beijing to mark the end of the second world war, he announced army personnel would be reduced like 300,000 -- the biggest cut since 1997. hundreds of warplanes and other military hardware on display. buying back more than $2 million of shares after fending off monsanto. it will begin in addition to the plan to boost dividends. yngenta has an adjustable seed business.

around the timing of any investorsates moves, and high-growth emerging markets are not getting much reprieve in the current environment. trillion fromy $2 emerging equities. where is the market opportunity now? joining us now is jim from leapfrog investments. we are world where thinking about where the fed goes, how much money is are floating around looking for a home in this high-growth african and asian markets? jim: i think african and asian markets really represent an extraordinary opportunity. the extraordinary opportunity is really in the demographics. so, you know, in africa and asia, there is been a huge amount of economic growth. and within that economic growth, many people have been leaving ty -- these groups are

the emerging consumer. as they move into the middle class, they buy things like cars and they buy houses. they buy washing machines. together with those things, they get mortgages and they get life insurance. they get car insurance. this is driving tremendous growth. in these markets -- anna: that's a like a structural change. but cyclically, these are challenges for the businesses you are investing in. china holding onto international investor interest, at a time when we are seeing so much -- m: currencies go up and down. with 4 billion emerging consumers, demographics his destiny. anna: kill me about the business. what are the things you look for? you invest in high-growth around the consumer story, particular the around insurance. why do you see the opportunity there? does it have to do with mobile

phones? there certainly use in the opportunity. jim: that is one of the areas. but the primary area is just the emerging consumer story. so you have these as i mentioned vast numbers of people that are buying insurance for the first time. and we have one absolutely extraordinary business in our portfolio. which uses mobile phones to sell insurance to low-income consumers. it is have absolutely tremendous growth. in the last year, it is now grown to 80 million customers. growing a rate of 750,000 customers among. we are seeing really extraordinary growth and opportunities using mobile technology. anna: colin, is this beyond your risk appetite? colin: we do believe markets like india -- and because of insurance, whether a modest program or a bank defense will

make it easier in an interesting market. jim: very much an interesting market. particularly the advent of cards progress ofain the people the coming consumers. entering much more of the formal economy. and india is really a great example that is happening at pace. anna: what are the countries were most excited about? you talk about india and health insurance opportunities, what other economies are you focused on for fast growth. emerging markets and the mobile technology, where are you really think people sees on the opportunity? ghana,uth africa, indonesia, the philippines -- those are countries we are focusing on. this is where we are seeing trends. of the growth of the emerging

consumer. anna: you talk about profit with purpose. what is the purpose that these organizations need to demonstrate to be attractive to your portfolio? what we do is we focus on privatees that achieve equity returns, like any other private equity firm. but in addition to that, we look for positive social impact. the behave ethically and so quality and relevant products to their clients. and we find this dramatically reduces when we work in emerging markets, one the big risks is your partner. if you are with a partner that you share values with the behave differently, it dramatically reduces one of the key risks and emerging markets. and it is socially impacted and positive. anna: that is interesting. joining us.or colin, you asked a question about india.

are you optimistic about the changes that they are bringing about? colin: i find it quite exciting and india. it is met with enthusiasm and opportunity. in july, the government of the bank of india -- i think when you see the charismatic individuals leading change and the potential that there is, i think there will be a lot of changes india. anna: what excites you most? the movement out of poverty into middle-class, the increasing opportunities then for consumerism movement with india? is that we would focus? colin: info structure is improving. but focusing on the basic of bank accounts will make a big difference for financial services. pensions, bank accounts are being addressed. anna: what about the emerging market space. we talked about the businesses facing difficulties seeing other effects around the global money flows because of what the fed is

about to do with interest rates. as it reduced your appetite exposure? colin: in general, and has. i would be concerned in some of the markets, when you look it's brazil, turkey, russia, there is a real problem. turkey, inflation in and it is hard to deal with. a number of them are a bit challenged. anna: colin staying with us. we will expand our conversation in another direction. 6:52 let's take a look at our stories on the website. tim, the morning to you. graphically disturbing story this morning about icelandic and the wailing industry. tim: that we started with a video package you guys put together. you can watch it on the website. go and see it.

it is disturbing, but it is interesting and compelling. and it does tell a story. and the story is all about how this tension and pressure about how iceland wants people to come and see the country and the whales. and you can also have a stake of the end of the day. anna: this is a business that is controversial -- making some people very wealthy. tim: without a doubt. one of the protagonists owns the only commercial whaling operation the world. they hunt these wales and export all the meat to japan. : and as goodman and believes the world has turned against him. maybe these creatures are considered endangered. what else are you focusing on? let's talk about markets. you brought up a few charts that tell a story.

tim: and did very well in the terminal, and we put on the website immediately. people were gravitating towards it. of louiseis the view yamada. one of the most famous chart artists, she now has her own firm. and i removed her talking to her years ago about gold, oil, and commodities. a very smart lady. her view is that she is seeing a lot of scary things in the market. it is really worth reading. anna: give us some clues. what speaks the most? don't give away the punch line. tim: the first one looks at the number of stocks on the exchange that are trading above their 200 a day average. those trading higher, and if you look at the proportion, is in a freefall -- which means the trend of most stocks is not higher. anna: interesting.

think you very much. tim from our web team. colin, with that in mind, what speaks to you right now about the investment in climate? other any charts that occur to you is looking frightening? colin: i'm always working about producing a number of stocks in the lows. it would take a while to work out. but i don't think what we're seeing in the market is unhealthy. i am much more concerned about the emerging economy. have some real problems with those. whether that breaks into political tensions, i don't know. but we look at brazil, china, turkey as key areas. anna: was this correction just waiting to happen? is it a fairly happy occurrence? colin: it probably was. we have a temper sent decline, so i think the longer that went on, a lot of profit had taken to stocks. but the cash balances in the

money management is still quite high. the numbers we get show a lot of tension around. there are not many places for it to go to get a yield. so i think we still are in a ball market territory. it is a healthy correction, and it would take a few more weeks i think to work out. but there is still a lot more stimulation that comes in from china and europe. anna: what kind of simulation you think the chinese should enact? we heard from people talking about the need for more fiscal stimulus? colin: yes, they could enact qe ultimately. there is potential for that. i think the measures they're taking just now, using rates and freezing things, that is good. and i would be more concerned about the actions that are taking to force investors. anna: we will talk more about that the next hour perhaps. colin from asset management.

china's markets are closed. but they are flexing their might in a military parade. we go live to hong kong for commentary. ♪

♪ inflation watch. european central bank meets but will mariota draghi cut the outlet? the countries markets in china are closed as they hold a lavish years to commemorate 70 since will work too. should normalize policy gradually that is ahead of a key meeting in turkey. ♪ welcome back to the program, you are watching and"countdown."

of the european central bank today. expectations are that it will update its inflation forecast. while economists don't expect the change in interest rates, investors will be listening closely for any comment about mario draghi from the slowdown in china. hans, what will you be listening for? ans: i was it is what they will do with inflation expectation and how they take those expectations. will they update them downward? that is what everyone is expecting that they are extended john the september 2016 cut off -- beyond the september 2016 cut off point. upe a look at germany, it is

decreased, and these are quarterly assessments. in june, that included and price per$63 barrell. the lowerranslate price of oil will be a key component. said centrale imf bankers shouldn't even be thinking of cutting interest rates. most economists nearly all don't expect a change of the benchmark rate. when you look at what the price of oil has done, it hasn't the economy. it has slightly tweaked inflation expectations. that is why it is important to see the official estimate.

the a look at what some of breakdowns in the inflation numbers of what we know to be true, you see what it really has gone down. 8.4%. prices have dropped - it will beegate, very difficult with the ecb to maintain their old inflation projections. qe is themeans for main question. anna: that is some of the backdrop, a lot of the talk be around that. what about greece? would ecb be talking about that? in our obsession with china, we forgot our obsession with greece. remember a couple months ago they basically cut off and removed the waiver for greece banks to use normal windows for liquidity at the ecb.

that forced to greek banks to go through emergency liquidity assistance. we don't expect a big change there, the question is do they replace the waiver? actually access these market at a lower interest rate. they may give a hint at the timeline would be for buying greek debt. that are a couple of things mario draghi can do. anna: thank you very much. stay with bloomberg, we will be bringing you everything you need to know around that ecb decision later. the ecb news conference is 45 minutes later. let's get to caroline hyde. jet coming out with its passenger numbers, just

over 7 million passengers in august. this is the take away -- they are raising their full-year guidance. this companies having such strong revenue they are able to offset the headwind in terms of cost increases. previously, they had seen it only up to 660 pounds now what is up to 700 pounds so this is ableesting saying they are to offset significant cost of benefits because their sales are going so well. passengers for the full year, 60.2 million, that is up from 4 million on the previous year. anna: interesting context for the conversation. update comingt from a small arrival. all of these airlines have been

the weakerfrom energy prices. perhaps some of those yet to now the second but what is happening in asia. the shanghai composite are shots today as china celebrates a two day bank holiday. there are things moving, plenty of markets that are open to get update.tte for an juliette: we have seen a pullback in the australian market so we are pretty flat today. due to the fact that investors took a breather from worrying about china, but we have seen a in thea pullback regional benchmark index. it is pretty flat at the moment. let's look at how australia, japan, and south korea have been dealing with that.

we had second-quarter gdp numbers coming throughout of korea. week again.ei index it helped out some of the export stocks. look at that, it fell off in australia down my more than 1.3% weighing on the overall regional index. they are having a huge fall. announcing it will try to turn around its fortunes. we have had some reprieve as the shanghai market is closed. hong kong will open today but was closed yesterday. it leaves a little bit of a pickup which is the first game we have seen in asian markets this week. from thank you joining us hong kong.

days andclosed for two we see amazing pictures from the huge parade marking the defeat of japan in world war ii. that is been taking place all day today in beijing. vladimir putin was in attendance along with the un's secretary-general. featured 12,000 chinese soldiers, but despite the unprecedented display of china's military might, the president announced the biggest cut to china's military sense 1997. for more, david joins us from hong kong will stop good to see you again. what kind of message was xi sending with this announcement? was interesting. that was the context of the

announcement about the cuts. war is like a mirror, when you look into it, you more cherish peace. the chinese people have no hegemonic interests. that was the context he said he would cut those 300,000 people from the chinese military. when you are rolling and into got that the ballistic missile down through tiananmen square that is capable of delivering nuclear warheads as far away as the netted states, i think you are also delivering another message. that message is don't mess with china. we might have heard something when you look at what was going on on the ground, this somewhat anachronistic military parade. big: just some context, how is the chinese military right now? avid: it is run 2.3 million

personnel. 300,000 would be slightly more than 10%. the military, although the second in the world, it's still a long way behind the united states. in terms of budget, china is thening but $190 million u.s. will spend slightly less than three times that much. china is still a long way back. that is one of the reasons why may be some people look at that and say a lot of publicity about what they have, but we don't have to be too worried at the moment. look at what they are doing in the south china's the, that island building program frightening the nerves of a lot of their neighbors. some neighbors, and other countries decided to send

delegations. some happened. vladimir putin is there, but many stayed away. david: there is a good reason for him to be there, it is one of the few friends that russia has and he wants to strengthen economic links. we seeing trade between china and russia dropped off by about 30% since this year. saw in other regional leader was from south korea. she had another agenda as well. is a sign of a warming with japan. but many other western leaders stayed away. all of the allies apart from or allied form country stayed away. they simply don't want to get caught in this bombastic, anachronistic, military parade.

anna: thank you very much. let's get some brief thoughts from the managing director at sem. might be said about inflation, you see reasons to be cheerful. hearing interesting that there is a lot of signs -- those airlines are increasingly getting business. they are something of an indicator of the economic recovery. in europe, we need to get some inflation. we can't really get more austerity. politically, it is not acceptable. we have to accept some internal evaluation in germany. anna: how does that come about? colin: they look at more productivity. anna: i can to mario draghi

shuttering at the very idea of letting wages rip. it is not really what they want to do, but the alternative of the euro breaking off because they can't enforce austerity. it's the only way you can make adjustments. the other way of trying to stop the shrinkage has not happened. anna: we talked about the periphery, what is it you like about that market? some people talk about spain and the opportunities there. colin: this seems to include some reform of the banking sector. do whatthis'll probably i more substantive economy. more potential for recovery. anna: thank you very much. coming up, and blockbuster move from disney as it is said to part ways with steven spielberg's dreamworks pictures.

but why the change of direction? ♪

anna: welcome back. here are the stories you need to know this morning. commodity prices, slowing trade make it likely that the ecb will downgrade its inflation forecast today. first policyy action is unlikely to be announced. it will be watching, indicating the 1.1 trillion euro program could be expanded. has insisted china is committed to peaceful developments. speaking of a military parade, he announced army personnel would be reduced by 300,000 which is the biggest cut since 1997.

warplanes and other military hardware are on display. president barack obama has secured enough senate votes to prevent lawmakers from stopping his nuclear deal. they have now indicated they will back the deal meaning the president can stop a veto override. gadgets and technology trends are on show today in berlin. bloomberg snake langston is there. isbloomberg's nate langston there. what are you expecting? te: we are still building the cents for the show behind me as you can probably see. this was one of the things we will see a lot of. advancement which the technology that sort of is

hd, wesucceed 1080 p, now seeing this in compressed phones. k phone.'s first four phone screens that have the same resolution as an 80 inch television. clarityamazing picture on the screen. we are seeing the next a big thing and smartphone technology. quite a few people are excited by this. 3-d doesn't need to be going away anytime soon so it is very exciting. anna: and you don't have to were any funny glasses. nate joining us there in berlin. dreamworks will part ways with disney after seven years and is

in search of a new backer. here with more is caroline hyde. caroline: this -- filmmaker said to steven spielberg tend to align themselves with these major film companies to be able to bank roll and finance. agreement could be coming to an end to stop it expires in august 2016 and one be carried on. there are still two more movies to come out before comes to an end. out,bfg" is due to come ofd a war film "bridge o spies." he has been a money winner for them. why on earth would they

sacrifice the man behind "jaws," "et,?" they have a few more things,. they have been snapping up assets. jewel in the crown, lucasfilm behind "star wars." that twins nicely with the overall view of disney to tie into merchandise and our theme park. we are not meant to be seeing th e new "star wars" until december, but they are already putting toys on sale, ahead of the film.

what then of dreamworks? athink they are probably onto good thing. this is still the man behind so many absolute blockbusters. he is in talks with other studios he has strong relationship with comcast. he already has a relationship there and has his own offices in the universal lot. clearly close relationships, he is already in talks with participant media for financing of dreamworks. interesting stories. anna: thank you very much. we're getting some breaking news from hungary.

the hungarian state railway has his bended -- has suspended direct trains citing security reasons for this suspension. we have live pictures coming from keleti train station. the frist time during this crisis we have seen hungary shutting down train station. they also constructed a wire fence to protect the border with serbia and romania. we will continue to monitor those development and the broader migration refugee story as it develops. let's get final thoughts from colin, let's talk a little bit about the fed.

loting up for the g20, a of focus on the chaos in emerging markets. the fed itaying needs to remind data dependent and needs to normalize policy gradually. it sounds like some of the things the fed has said themselves, what is your expectation? the emerginger of economies are worried about a rise. we have some dependency on the dollar in some emerging economies. i still think the fed may wait until next year. there is not much sign of inflation globally . centralill is low,

bankers seem to be looking at something quite different than the rest of the data. anna: there is a structural sense that almost regardless of the inflation data some commentators suggest they just need to get on with this because there is this emergency level interest rates when the u.s. economy is not in any kind of emergency setting. do you see any value in that argument? colin: yes, the fed must feel very uncomfortable. it has normalized its economy and probably would like to have that. where we have been looking at previous expectations of a rate rise without they would move quite steeply, if we do get one this month i think it will, with some language suggesting that is it for a wild. anna: live in interesting stories staying the fed could be one and done that is the expectation being built into the markets. they suggest it could be one and

done sometime in late 2016 it seems. n: the just isn't much deflation around. the prices have taken some of the pressures out of texas and areas like that. i think it would be best to wait a little while longer. this could be the shortest tightening cycle from the fed. you do see some connections between the two? in: we are seeing connections to the currency and the borders in the u.s. as well. i think there are some linkages and they probably want to see that wake -- play out before they pass judgment. anna: good to see you this morning on the program. the manager of svm management. coming up, inflation for mario draghi. the president is under pressure to combat inflation stagnation.

we look ahead to the ecb's announcement after the break. what's with they say about inflation?

anna: welcome back. here are the stories you need to know this morning. commodity prices and slowing trade make it likely the ecb will downgrade its inflation forecast today. economists say for the policy action is unlikely to be announced. they will be watching for language indicating the ecb's 1.1 trillion euro qe program could be expanded. has maderesident xi relationso peaceful

with its neighbors. this came during a military the 70's commemorate anniversary of world war ii. thousands of soldiers are now marching to the capital and hundreds of warplanes and other military hardware are on display. it was to be chairman of the combined company after a planned merger with italian rivals. she defended her resignation after returning from a vacation. let's head over to asia now. china celebrates a two day bank holiday. there are plenty of brackets that are opening -- markets that are opening. juliette: we are seeing some green coming in late trading and other asian markets.

a bit of a reason to look into the fundamentals on the back of both games. that japanly hoping stocks which rose from a one-week low reducing quite a bit of weakness coming to australia. some analysts during around the recession word. some low trade numbers coming in out of australia. a bit of buying. anna: joining us there from hong kong. where does that leave us for the start of trade? this is the picture on the future. if you take your eyes to the middle of that screen you will see we have various numbers coming up in green. they suggest we get a positive start to the equity trading day.

the 5100, the dax all expected to be a plus territory by some margin. if fairly broad-based rally coming in. they could focus their attention somewhere else for a while. the swedish central bank is one of three banks with a negative interest rate. they announced if that will go any lower. get to jonas who joined us live. will he get a change in policy from the ricks bank -- riksbank? jonas: it is a close call. there is a lot of pressure on the riskbank to cut rates further especially considering

the drop in commodities since the last decision which was two months ago. a lot of pressure and water under the bridge has gone by since then. retain their credibility and some people are looking at the deeper negative interest rates to as low as negative 0.5 even. anna: thank you very much for joining us. with a company announcement by the central bank. will be speaking to the swedish central bank governor and will have more from that interview during our programming today. stay tuned for that. european central bank meets later, and expectations i'd will update its expectation forecast and hint about possible changes in the future.

imf shed negative light on global rate forecast. now insmithson joins us the studio. good to see you, robert, thanks for joining us again. but they for joining us again jamie. do you expect we will see a reduction in the inflation forecast? robert: the low cost of oil that's what is interesting, the slope of the futures curve since it last forecast has been a bit more sloping. you get stronger impact on rising commodity prices. we could see the bring done their forecast near. jamie: not later on. expectobert, do you

anything of interest from the ecb today? think this will be a fairly quiet update on the ecb. the reduction in oil, it is clearly going to be good for the euro zone gdp will stop almost every year -- country is a substantial oil importer. they must raise gdp forecasts. if you look at how much euros on countries spent on importing -- some are as high as 4.5% energy import bills. declines in energy prices do increase gdp. anna: those boosts most people are talking about, to the energyr, boosts to importing countries, have they failed to live up to expectations? people were expecting it to be more positive. if you look at the

country in europe that has the highest import bill it is spain. spain is the country where gdp has surprised most significantly. if you look if i last year, that adds about 1.4% to spanish gdp in 2016. that is a substantial portion of why lives in forecasts rise from to maybe even 4% levels for this year. if you look at german retail data, we such a magic improvements -- we saw dramatic improvements. anna: are you expect any changes? wordsght as a reassuring

is any indication we might see qe increase? jamie: i don't think there is any incentive for them to reset commitments. his themmight see laying of the tools and possibilities that they do have to do something. a will stress the potential forecast remains to get back towards the target for the end of the year. anna: this quandaries of the many central banks are dealing with. the famous central bankers all over the world gathering, one of the lessons that can either that seems to be that we don't to severally understand enough about the way that inflation works. have you been surprised at how we have seen such quantitative easing? robert: it's funny, isn't it? i have a very the financial markets tend to do what hurts most people the most.

we are talking but how would we spend the multi-trillion dollar government subsidies that were in the pipeline. now, we seem as convinced that inflation is not going to happen. if you look around the world, i think it is clear inflationary pressures are building below the surface and a great many countries. in the u.s., for example, a large chunk of that is housing related. housing costs are rising. it is likely if you take energy out inflation could surprise on the upside there. pressures, at wage almost every local fed noticed increasing wage pressure. in germany, we have very low unemployment. we are beginning to see inflationary pressures bubbling up below the surface. energy is heightening that right now, but it is possible that if

we go to years, the way to nominal gdp growth will be somewhat higher. anna: is the inflation bubbling perhaps come under the surface? i am inclined to agree with robert there is a global slack in a sense. it will take time to affect inflation. it is masking the effects of domestic slack with lower oil prices. anna: we heard from mark carney recently that the bank of england thought when that year on year we go oil prices dropped we get a clearer picture on inflation. much. thank you very robert states with us a little bit longer. we get some breaking news this time on the fashion industry. caroline has the details. she was: we heard that

going to leave the company and came back from her travels on holiday and tend a resignation -- penned her resignation. now, we are hearing from ma ssenet that she will explore couldeas and said that it not be in better shape today. she is commenting in a statement but says it is the right time. it was meant to be the italian founder who would be the combined ceo. the founder was to be ceo, but

she was to be chairman. but that is not to be the case. she has tended her resignation. that merger will be completed later this month. anna: thank you very much. let's bring you some last pictures of three head to the break. stations crowding the after hungary spend -- suspends direct trains from the hungary capital. for security reasons that suspended those direct trains from budapest to the rest of europe.

anna: welcome back.

we do commodity prices are slowing trade and glowing equities. all of those things making it more likely the ecb will downgrade its quarterly inflation forecasts today. further policy action is unlikely to be announced. they will be watching for language indicated the 1.1 trillion euro qe program could be expanded. downgrades to global economic growth have increased. finance ministers are meeting tomorrow. the imf cautions growth remains moderate. suggest monetary policy must remain a common double -- accommodating. ,ungary has tighten security seems this morning outside the train station. they continued to gather any hope of boarding trains. for more let's get you hans nichols was watching the development. s: there have been two

important developments, the hungary and -- hungarians suspended trail service -- rail service. at the same time, it's at the police presence at the police preventedich have them access inside the police station they pulled back that is why you see those images on your screen of a great deal of chaos at the train station. here is where things stand, the hunt gary and president is often -- hunt gary and president -- hungarian president is off today to ask for help. offering aries are mixture of criticism and help. we heard criticism of the way they are processing refugees supplying by the

dublin agreement. at the same time, the interior minister here in germany has been talking about a special aid program about sending a lot of ,oney to countries like hungary the so-called hotspots, to help them process these refugees. it is clear these ports of entry will need a lot of financial assistance not just for processing but also housing these refugees. as you see there, they are overwhelming local infrastructure. anna: hunter nichols on a developing story. we are a few minutes away from the thursday trading day on the equity markets. caroline hyde has her eyes on the stocks in to tell us what to watch. we have had a fluttering of corporate news this morning kicking off for the upgrade coming from easyjet. with thee focusing on roller coaster ride is, up for the 20%.

than 1% overess the past year to date. now it could get a boost as we see them raise their forecast by as much as 12%. that could rise to 700 million for a higher profit expectation. the strong revenue is offsetting some of the cost headwinds. easyjetlose eye on shares this morning. and another came out with breaking news, this is of course share prices over the last 12 months. why? offeringonsanto was to buy the company. give they are planning to

back shares. that will start as soon as the coming week. they are also selling assets. shares asfor syngenta well after they knocked back the monsanto offering. barclays share prices have been ramping up so far over the past 12 months. we look or shares on the back of that sale to or to ease assets. it is not a particularly pretty picture. that is good for their capital ratios. selling banking operations in for 112 to bankinter million euros. is hit investors thoughts from thsom. smith sin -- smi

how were you navigating this transition? how are your investments performing in that environment? t: the outlook we have seen is a pretty positive one. we continue to see a great deal of earnings, all of the major european industries are seeing q2 numbers substantially up. the reason for that is we are beginning to see operating leverage kick in in europe. operating margins are running 30% or 40% where in the u.s. margins are at an all-time high. the cyclical economic upside in europe continues, we see strong earnings.

on the one hand, the ecb and how with a response to china because inflation remain stubbornly low, but on the other hand is a more positive story about the growth environment. robert: absolutely. if you look around the european markets in terms of where you are seeing strength in the pm the corporateand earnings, the economist at the reform like spain and to a lesser extent italy are beginning to see growth return. those countries should not get made the reforms are still lagging behind. anna: fascinating to see that on a side note barclays announcing they are selling the small value of assets to portuguese banking.

it would be amazing to the be portuguese banking sector would be liquidity of but these of the reforms we have seen taking place. of course that's a big agenda items looming. the g-20, all of that really playing into the conversation about the fed. robert: yes. the adp comes out with their number, that would suggest the be. payoff number would still very positive but slightly shy of expectations. not that it has a perfect forecasting record. the evidence for the u.s. is the labor markets is diminishing. the evidence in europe is that unemployment is also coming down. i think we are beginning to get into a virtuous cycle where people feel more comfortable and are willing to spend increasing. anna: it is great to see you on the program this morning.

a few minutes and start of the european equity trading day. john is here metellus what he is watching. jonathan: i am not watching asian market or the shanghai composite because it is closed today. the market volatility is a little bit of a breather for anyone charged with watching asian markets specifically. political noise front and military might of china on show for everyone. a doctor but the chinese politics at 8:10. i want to start with the ecb meeting as well. then a little bit more on the , what are the chances for more qe? not his best case scenario but it gets but the probability at 40%. anna: thank you very much. that will do it for "countdown

t." the european markets will open in positive territory the defense of what is coming up on the programming for the rest of the day be aware we plenty coming up of a central banking nature. we get news from the swedish central bank the interest rate decision coming around 35 minutes time. then later we could ecb's rate decision. we will go to break a leave you with these live pictures from the main trace asian that -- train station in hungary.

jonathan: good morning welcome to "on the move." let's get straight to your morning brief. the ecb meets to set policy today. might marketsry are closed for a parade in beijing. investors get a break form volatility. is the downside to global growth has increased at a busy 20 meeting in turkey. turkey.meeting in points,res up 95

shanghai is shot, a little bit of relief for the market maybe. caroline: a call moffett -- a calm off the chinese storm. to the markets opening. many people tweeting me today saying better late than never for the imf. they say by the way, downside risks have gone up. they do weigh in on central-bank policy as well saying the ecb should try to do more quantitative easing if the market doesn't seem to show an extended sufficient improvement in inflation. little evidence of a meaningful wage or price pressures. all eyes on the ecb later today. more qe mr bond buying coming from mario draghi and a downgrade in inflation.