mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to hillary clinton, this is how you turn the page. ♪ john: it wasn't bad. market's back. ants on aional and -- log day. in our line of tonight, dealing with the donald, sitting with stephen and having a ball with haley barbour. first, page turning alert.

hillary clinton campaign has identified a weak period. exhibit a, on "world news tonight" where clinton finally apologizes for her private e-mail server. hillary clinton: that was a mistake. i'm sorry about that. i take responsibility. i'm trying to be as transparent as i possibly can. john: that is part of hillary 2.0, or 3.0, or even 4.0. depending on your point of view. here is how the updated candidate will perform according to the mainstream media outlets that were spoonfed details. she will enact humorous responses, initiate spontaneous reactions, and activate the joint capacitor. but seriously, this is so ham-handed, even david axelrod tweeted that it reads like something out of the onion. and with a hashtag that would make shia labeouf blush. just do it. how could the clinton campaign possibly be going about this page turning activity in this fashion? mark: it's inexplicable. she has a problem with voters.

her problem with the press and democratic party is a lot worse. you do not tell people what you're strategy is. you simply do your strategy. there are other thing always -- they are promising things like joy and spontaneity. she should just go out and be a better candidate. if day will go down in history as one of the stupidest mistakes they have done if she's not the nominee. john: it went down, in 2007 of december, the clinton campaign flailing in iowa, announced recently that she was about to undertake a likability tour. she flew around that day in a helicopter, and everyone mocked her ceaselessly. they were mocking her for trying to go around and tell people hey, i am likable again, so you come across like a phony. mark: david axelrod's tweets tell multitudes.

the elites oversteer problem -- overstate her problems with voters. she's doing ok there. but the problem is apologizing -- i don't really care about that. but, it is the accountability problem, likability, she should be herself and not talk about it. john: part of the narrative with her is always calculating, overly poll tested, market testing, over scripted. it just screams all those parts of the narrative are true. mark: i can only imagine the conversations they had between yesterday and today. in the substance sector hillary , clinton fleshed out her finance reform plan. there is online video about the online ruling. all of this as a push that she wants to have changes about big donors disclosed, loopholes closed, constitutional amendment that will overturn citizens united and make changes to help public financing work.

among other provisions, is this good policy? is it good politics? john: the policy part first. it is the biggest thing, if it actually happened that you ended secret money in american politics. all disclosure, instant disclosure, the most important thing to happen in campaign finance reform of all. i'm with her on that. as politics, this is just an attempt to get close to some of the bernie sanders voters. i just do not imagine that there are any bernie sanders voters and look at the candidate and think that hillary clinton is not the candidate of big money. mark: i applaud some of them, on the politics of it, this is running into her weakness. i hear this over and over. you see it in the polling. people think she's too close to wall street. she is a big money candidate. to say the unilateral disarmed, this is a proposal trying to ameliorate a weakness.

this is not really playing to her strength. although she does believe in it. john: i'm sure she does. but i do think sanders voters, you look at bernie sanders running, pledging to run no negative ads, taking no undisclosed money, having no super pac, if you care about this issue, you are with bernie sanders. in a few days you will be with larry lessig, she will not steal your heart with this politically. mark: it could take the edge off of some of her supporters. john: today on bloomberg tv, i -- a new colleague of ours interviewed warren buffett, who had nice things to say about what he has been hearing from donald trump on tax policy. >> he thinks the rich should pay more, just like they would be if they were investment advisors. in terms of tax policy, i have not heard him say anything yet that i disagree with. john: another poll shows that

donald trump is still a giant living in the clouds, while the other candidates are trying to find magic beans to grow a beanstalk up to the clouds. jeb bush has just released his first tv ad, filled with not-so-subtle contrast with you know who. >> we have an important choice to make about the direction of our country. if you want more d.c. politicians or self promoters, you've got options. anybody can talk. i have delivered. i hope to earn your support. i'm jeb bush and i approve this message. john: that's one example of how to deal with donald. is that the right way to do it? mark: most of that is off the florida record. we have expected that. the fact that jeb bush needs to take two little indirect shots at donald trump in his first television ad tells you a lot about what he needs to do. i think more direct will be necessary and more effective, but he did not want to do that now. i think that is an attempt to

diminish donald trump, which is one way to deal with it. a lot of republicans say that is for now, the right way. diminish him. john: you will talk about scott walker in a second. i will let you do that. but i have to say, this is all kind of preamble to the debate next week. i think that every once in while you get a feeling, where you think this is going to be a snooze. all that kind of energy, i think there will be an explosion. all that pent up energy from and whatened last time didn't happen, i do think that some candidates will go at him directly. i don't know which one will work, but a lot of people will try to take donald had on in the debate. mark: there are three elements of trump that are elevating him. one is the fact that he is an alpha male. the history of the republican nomination of the last cycles, the biggest alpha male tends to win the nomination. also, he's fun to watch.

people like to watch him. three, he is entertaining in a way not everybody in the race is. confident and entertaining. john: was mitt romney an alpha male? mark: more then gingrich and huntsman. he was a big guy. and he made a lot of money. rich, all the mail. male.ha scott walker this weekend, went for interesting, fun, and alpha by riding his harley around new hampshire. that is scott walker at his most alpha. if you think about bush, kasich, rubio, are they as interesting or fun? john: no number of miles on a harley is making up for scott walker talking about building a fence on the canadian border. mark: tonight, everyone we know is going to stay up late to watch stephen colbert's inaugural episode.

one of his first guests is a man who needs the bump. jeb bush gets a chance to show he is fun and interesting. joe biden will be on the show later. bernie sanders is next week. how important will this new television platform before 2016? for 2016? if you look at the early lineup, it seems like he's basically saying, i'm going to be the political guy among the late-night hosts. more than jimmy kimmel, more than jimmy fallon. if you think about the gap that exists, no john stewart and no old stephen colbert, there is a huge gap. but there's also going to be a pull for colbert not to be the old colbert. you will need to manage that tension and figure out where he will land. mark: my suspicion is this will be the toughest late-night show on broadcast television for politicians. high risk, high reward. if jeb bush is good tonight, i think it will help him a lot. i don't think colbert is going

to go easy on him. john: the good thing about colbert, he's a great comic, but he's also really smart. again, he can't become a ted koppel in the days of old. but he's not going to be jay leno. he's not going to be letterman. he can be in a place where he can be both really funny and also really on point. the question is whether candidates will feel the need to subject themselves to that. if he turns out to be like that. mark: you reach new people who are not typical political people. but if you do well, the clip goes viral, and even have the best news cycle of the entire election. if it goes poorly, i pity the campaign advisor who said, go on stephen colbert. he will be fantastic, you will reach millenial. john: i have to say, i give jeb bush credit. it takes a lot of guts. he's going to get out there, not knowing anything like what it's

going to be like. he is putting himself out there. mark: jay leno always had a pretaped interview built-in. we will see if colbert does that. but i do believe he will have republicans, democrats, be tough on all of them. it will be a forum unlike any other. john: everyone will like. and watch. coming up, conversation with haley barbour, his book on the storm called katrina, and his thoughts on the storm called trump. after this. ♪

♪ mark: our guest tonight likes to say, you don't learn much from the second kick of the mule. former republican national committee chairman haley barbour has a new book out. it is called "america's great storm: leading through katrina," but first we want to take advantage of the fact that he knows about politics.

governor, welcome. we want to ask questions about the race, especially about the race for your party's nomination. pretty exciting, right? haley: it's very interesting. in my 47 years, i've never seen anything like it. mark: i want to ask about establishment candidates, none of them are doing as well as they would like. a lot of people thought they would. tell me, what do you think the single thing they need to do, or they have done so far that is holding them back, keeping them from doing better. the first is someone you know well, governor jeb bush of florida. haley: i think jeb bush has to make this election more about the great conservative record he had in florida as governor. he was one of the most successful governors in the united states of a very large and diverse state. he is viewed by most americans as somebody named bush. there's still a lot of fatigue out there.

i think for him people need to , see the outstanding record he had in florida. mark: less about bush, more about his record. what about his fellow floridian, marco rubio? what does he need to do better or different/ ? haley: of course, he is a tremendous performer. he's a wonderful speaker. he's really really good. he's attractive, he's young, being hispanic, i think that is an advantage. i think barack obama has not set a very good atmosphere for somebody who is a freshman senator trying to run. president obama could not run a two-car funeral. mark: but that is not going to change. can he overcome that? haley: i think what he's doing is the right thing. he's running on issues he -- he has talked in depth about issues. i think that plays to his

strengths. mark: last would be scott walker. he was leading in iowa, and now he's not. what does he need to do better or different? haley: again, he's got some advantages. he's better known than any other governor. he was governor and then he had to run two years later because they recalled him. he got elected governor three times in four years. i think that has been greatly to his advantage. i can't explain exactly why his numbers have subsided. i think he has been trying to talk about different things, and some of them are not as consistent, or the kinds of things he has talked about so much as governor of wisconsin. to say that any of these three guys are out of it or in real trouble is very premature. you haven't mentioned john kasich, who is a governor with a great record.

john: just about to do that. he has positions on two issues. one of which support for common core standards and education, the other is expanding medicaid under obamacare in ohio. they are both controversial and unpopular in large parts of the republican party. do you think either one of those is disqualifying for him to be the republican nominee? haley: i don't at all. i think my state did not choose to expand medicaid. had i still been governor, i would not have chosen to expand. i don't trust the federal government to keep paying this huge percentage of the cost. we can only barely afford to pay what we are paying for now. every state is different. that is one of the things governors understand. that is why we will like policy to be set by the state. one size does not fit all. john: we made it far without saying the word trump.

is there anything you have heard him say so far that you regard as disqualifying? haley: the thing that he said that i thought was disqualifying to me, and i think to a huge percentage of republicans, he has now changed his mind on. that is the idea that he would run as a third party or independent candidate. every republican knows that if donald trump or any other person does what ross perot did in 1992, would have the same outcome. if he ran as an independent candidate, that meant we would give barack obama a third term, whether it was hillary clinton, bernie sanders, joe biden or elizabeth warren. now he has realized that was not the right position and has taken what i consider the right position. i'm glad he did it. john: trump thinks he will win

the hispanic vote. can you imagine a universe where that is true? haley: i think it is harder for him then he makes it down. -- sound. republicans have a lot of work to do to do better among hispanics. when that romney he wanted self deportation to be the policy, he ran the vote among hispanics down to 27%. that's about as low as it can get. but we can do better and should do better among hispanics, whoever the nominee is. john: do you think donald trump could do better? haley: at this point, i don't think he is the strongest candidate we would have. i think marco rubio, i think jeb bush, and i think there are others who would do better. rick is somebody who has always done well among hispanic voters in texas. mark: ok, governor barbour, stay with us. we will talk about his new book about leadership and dealing with hurricane katrina. more with haley barbour, right after this. ♪

john: we are back for a second block with haley barbour. even though we all know, you don't learn much from a second kick of a mule. his new book is about hurricane katrina. there has been a lot of discussion of katrina because of the anniversary. talk about why you decided to write this particular book with this particular focus on your home state of mississippi. haley: i thought the story needed to be told. the news coverage after katrina 10 years ago just reminded people that the news media doesn't like to cover airplanes that land safely. that where there is a terrible story or outcome, that gets all the news coverage. in mississippi, you did not have that. we bore the brunt of the worst natural disaster in american history.

our people got knocked down flat. it was utter obliteration. but those resilient people got right back up and went to work. not just helping themselves, but their neighbors. that is a story that was not told enough. mark: a lot of great things in the book, a lot of stories. a lot of ideas about leadership. i want you to just tell one briefly, about a young man who drove to the federal reserve in atlanta. haley: the largest bank on the coast had been through hurricanes before. all the bank offices were destroyed, flooded, atms didn't work. they had a boy who was a trainee, whose wife lived in atlanta. he rode out the storm there. they told him to go by the federal reserve bank in atlanta, put something in his trunk, and don't stop. drive straight to the bank in gulfport.

but when he got there, they had put in the bank $30 million in cash. he had no idea, all he knew it was a big cardboard box. but the bank knew it would be a cash economy for a while. no electricity for 12 days. you can get anything out of the atm. companies wouldn't take a credit card because they couldn't get it processed. the same bank loaned out three on$3.5 million to people ious on a plain piece of paper. the regulators really squealed about it, yet they collected back over 90% of that money over $3.3 million. john: let me ask you quickly about one of the great perceived villains of the story, which is fema. you write about how they got some things right and some things wrong.

he did a lot more right than -- you say that they did a lot more right than wrong. do you think fema deserves more credit, and for that matter, does george w. bush deserves more credit for the handling of this crisis? haley: the fema logistical system, on which all the states where relying, it held. -- it failed. it failed from the start and almost created a catastrophe in our state. we had to work around it. they were criticized, deservedly. they did other things that don't make sense. the federal law in some places does not make sense. but, when you look at the totality, fema did a lot more right than wrong. a whole lot more. they tried to be good partners. that is just the logistical system that concern. -- that failed. as far as george bush is concerned, he leaned forward on every decision. whatever the federal law said was the maximum he could do, every time, he did that. but people's impressions of that

are all baked in. i understand that. but i do hate the fact that people don't recognized that generally the federal government was a good partner, and gave us and louisiana, alabama, and texas unprecedented assistance unlike any that had ever been done before for a natural disaster. mark: governor haley barbour. the book is "america's great storm: leading through hurricane katrina." thank you for joining us. we will be right back with a special highlights reel. ♪

john: kim davis, the kentucky clerk who is in prison because she opposed to a marriage licenses, was released from prison today. mike huckabee was there. you had to see the whole thing. >> thanks to this incredibly brave lady, who decided the courage of her convictions was more important than simply even her own freedom.

mark: is the story over? john: i have the feeling not. we are live 24/7 on bloomberg politics.com.

emily: we have the top things you need to watch for at tomorrow's big event. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg west." coming up, a documentary filmmaker shines her spotlight on the excesses of the san francisco tech community. will speak to nancy pelosi about the widening income divide. startup to gett its unicorn horn.