john: two all due respect to donald trump who said that je b bush made ben carson look like the energizer bunny, we thought that would help with a little illustration. happy national concussion day, sports fans, which means the nfl season is getting underway. the lineup on our shop yet we --e biden, boehner and

for the first him and his campaign, donald trump is under siege. in the past 24 hours he has benn four body blows from carson, carly fiorina, and jeb bush. let's come from the religious angle, courtesy of dr. carson. [bell] carson: one of my favorite bible verses. of theility and the fear lord are riches and honor in life." and that's a very big part of who i am. humility and the fear of the lord. i don't get that impression with him. maybe i am wrong. faith was aer heard big thing until just recently, so i do not even know about what ben carson. all of a sudden he becomes this great religious figure. i saw him yesterday quoting

something and he was quoting on humility, and it looks like he memorized it two minutes before he made the quote. don't tell me about benca cars. his: carson backed off comments and said he did not want to get into a gladiator fight with trump. that was just one front of the war on trump. on the second front is carly fiorina. it is all about how "rolling stone" quoted the donald. "look at that face. that?anyone vote for can you imagine that is the face of our next president. she is a woman and i'm not supposed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. are we serious?" turns out trump says he meant carly fiorina's personna. fiorina: i am not going to

spend a single cycle figuring out what trump, but maybe i'm getting under his skin. john: bobby jindal who fired off a series of tweets saying trump does not stand for anything except himself. that he is egomaniacal and a narcissist. all part of a speech that jindal gave at the national press club. [bell] jindal: i want to say what everybody is thinking about donald trump but afraid to say. the idea of the donald trump act is great. the reality, however, is absurd. he's non-serious. he is a carnival act. he is shallow. he has no understanding of policy. he has no substance. he lacks the intellectual curiosity to even learn.

mean anything. policy and ideals are not important. he is for donald. donald trump is a narcissist and an egomaniac. person that only a small needs to consummate tell us how strong and powerful they are. the real danger is that ironically donald trump could destroy america's chance to be great again. the joke's on us. he is laughing all the way to the bank or the polling station. pt barnum was never more right than right now. john: donald trump replied in a statement that treated jindal leica has been. "he did not make the debate stage and therefore i've never met them. i only respond to people who register more than 1% in the polls. i never thought he had a chance and i have been proven right." now, finally part four. nn,ents ago, jeb bush on c reacting to jindal's comment and reacting to trump's comment

about carly fiorina. mr. bush: i agree. theink that mr. trumpa as front runner needs to be treated like all candidates and needs to share what his experiences are his ideasident, what are, and so far, at least, he has not been serious about that. i do not see how over the long haul you can insult your way to the presidency and not the nomination, either. this disparaging of women is deeply troubling. it just doesn't make any sense to me. john: so, mark, you are down there on washington, d.c., watching all this unfolded. a votto scraps but never been under fire in quite this way. talk about each of these and how they might he individually or collectively different. let's start off with ben carson. mark: i disagree with the privacy is under siege. although, each of these has a

distinctive quality. on carson, right now, a lot of people and establishment are carsonal that trump and will end up as the nominee. these guys are one and two. most of them are way ahead of everybody else. for once, trump is fighting with someone at his level. these issues of faither, if eventually carson and ted cruz dan convince voters in iowa an south carolina that trump is not a man of faith, it will have power for them. john: when i said under siege, all i really mean is the notion that trump is fighting a multi-front war. he has not been taking this much incoming all at once. i think you're right about the carson. carson, he's someone that a lot of republicans really like. and he comes a cross, even when he was attacking trump, he comes across as kind of mild-mannered

he's capable of acerbic credit. getting into a fight over religion is dangerous territory for trump. one of the places where trump seems inauthentic is on religion. let's talk about the carly fiorina thing, because i think this may be the one where he is in the most danger. mark: he is in the most danger on this one. there have been other instances where there have been questions about trump's attitudes towards women. you see leading republican voices, consultants, others speaking out about what he said. and it does make it possible iowa, this, in could create a huge gender gap that could be a problem down the road. john: look, this is an issue where you have got, the republican party recognizes it has a problem with female voters to begin with. if trump gets cast as a

misogynists by the women of the republican party, that will effectively foreclose the ability he would ever have to get the nomination. i'm not saying he is there yet, but between this and the megyn kelly thing, he started to get close to that territory. so, let's talk about jindal and jeb. what you think about those two fights? mark: i think the jindal thing is going to be talked up -- an attemptas to save his campaign. he is doing better. it is going to be fascinating at the debate next week. a lot of times in politics, you see candidates fight in public and then they get to the debate and they are back in the green room and paling around. it is going to be fascinating to see with all these candidates, with the exception of carson. jindal will not be in the main debate. will they pal around with trump or will this public animus, public disapproval extend to how

they treat him on the debate stage but also off. john: i have been predicting i thought next week is going to be a fireworks display. today makes it think it even more so. i'm curious -- your i'm edging in direction on that today. john: do you think jeb is happy to have all this company in attacking trump, 40 think he preferred to be the 00-- or do you think he preferred to be alone? mark: is it smart to be the one to take on trump? i think the bush campaign felt they had to do what they were doing. you see people like scott walker, marco rubio, john kasich staying out of this. at this point, there is strength in numbers for most of these campaigns to be a voice to rally the party against him. even though right now you could argue that trump's being big is helping people like jeb bush, helping ben carson. john: i got to think that jeb is

happier to not be the lone voice. let's move on. as promise we will get to biden, bernie and some other stuff after this word from our sponsors. ♪

and this point every republican presidential candidate is dealing with the donald. one of them scott walker has been the most trumped today. in the run-up to the second republican debate, walker's campaign is trying to convince the chattering class that he is far from dead despite his falling poll numbers and a serious unsteady walker's statements that have shaken his supporters. today eureka college in illinois, walker claims he is so big, so disruptive that you reaker call hima a w of havoc.

havocor walker: to wreak on washington we need to have a leader who has been tested. mark: so, john, this is a part of walker having a serious offense before the debate to reframe, recast and restart the campaign do you think they have a solid plan? john: i think they have a comeback plan. and the notion of trying to make specific promises like repealing obamacare, tearing up the iran deal. he has got a plan. i'm not sure that it is a serious comeback plan in the sense he has fallen so far, it will be hard given all the other noise, it will be hard for him to claw himself back to the position he was in a few months ago. mark: scott walker, like hillary clinton, has a bigger problem with elites than he does with voters to get the problem with voters he has dropped in a lot of polls, including in iowa.

he still has a chance to come back but today's performance didn't do much to convince etc., he has to rest that up. the debate is massively important for him. john: everybody has a lot at stake in this debate next week. i cannot think of a person who has more at stake than scott walker. i cannot imagine he is not going to join the chorus now and try to take on donald trump directly on that stage when we get out there to california next wednesday. all right. keeps us waiting like the world's most stubborn jack-in-the-box, he arrives in gotham sitting with some niceties. a new poll shows hillary clinton with a lower number than bernie sanders in iowa. the beats numbers are also pretty good even though he's not formal in the race. arounden is here paling with all kinds of liberals.

is this acquainted in or is the vice president trying to stir the pot? mark: he has been moving around a lot of places. doing everything he can to keep the options open. the personal is going to trump any of these political considerations, but make no is formidable because he is -- has vast national political experience. coming into new york, doing colbert, hanging out with the governor, this guy can do a lot of stuff and he can do it with a better touch that hillary clinton. john: i think there is something about, he has been storing the pot, -- stirring the pot, but there is something about the vividness of the incursion on her home turf. standing up there with cuomo. all these people. this is seen as hillary clinton's home and base. be traipsing around at this moment when he supposed to be deciding about whether he will take her on, it seems like political theater at a high level to me. mark: the more he plays on a

major league stage, the more he is that guy the party would say if hillary clinton falters over e-mails, he is the person the party would say we have a major league guy. we can plug him in. nothing more majorly than coming all ofam city, colbert, these platforms that, again, not everybody in the world can do. joe biden can do them. john: would be funny if bill de blasio endorsed him. that would be great. we will be back with two of the smartest people in the whole wide political world after this. p ♪

a lot of movement in the numbers today. no, i am not talking about the stock market. a financial joke for our friends in the building. i am talking about the political polls. we have our pollster anne felzer and our recommendation expert

mad scientist sasha. we will talk about some polls. start in republican side. tell us about what this big poll tells us. ise: it tells us trump marching forward. every time the pundits say, -- it shows him winning by a bigger margin. iss up, carson is up, bush down. mark: between trump and carson, number one and number two, trump leads across the board with every demographic and type of group, but what can you say about where carson is closer to trump on gender or age education? is there an area where carson is competing more trump/ ? ann: women used to be carson's core. trump now has an 11 point lead among women. so, he's making up that

distance. trump is doing better with college graduates than he used t o. those numbers of increase. carson continues to be the core republican, the core conservative, but he does not win. you are donald trump campaign and looking at this numbers and trying to translate that into tactical imperatives on the ground in iowa, what you thinking right now? sasha: i wonder whether you need a ground game. the assumption is that trump needs to spend the fall developing a traditional looking campaign with the field organization that will identify his voters and mobilize them on caucus day. the nature of his coalition that varied, makes it difficult to use the statistical tools the campaigns want to predict their supporters. and that is what you want, w hich doors to knock on. the statistical as

abuse of a carson supporter are looking far easier to define than trump's. on, thereths go will be a huge risk for trump is people who look like supported in september were treated by trump's campaign on caucus day. the even want to bother with the ground game. or is this national media persuasion strategy enough to carry him through? mark: i want to ask you one more thing about this national poll. we have three big candidates, trump and caron, bernie sanders who are trying to bring a lot of new people into the race. polling will be a challenge -- are we pulling the right people. what does this poll say about enthusiasm for trump and enthusiasm for carson? ann: enthusiasm for republicans is waxing, enthusiasm for democrats general is waning. trump has a very high number saying that they feel enthusiasticif if he were to

become the nominee. half as many saying they would be upset. carson, his numbers are more tilted toward the positive. haveush is not somebody we been talking about. he has more people saying it would be angry if he turned out to be the nominee than saying that they would be enthusiastic about. mark: i think they are not angry but frownuy faced. ann: upset. john: sad face. you are an iowa expert. there is a quinnipiac poll focusing on iowa. ann: they included joe biden and when he has included he is sapping the strength all of hillary clinton and bernie sanders has a one point lead. you take them out of the equation, and she is holding onto a three-point lead. his being in the mix right now is bothering hillary clinton a little bit more than bernie sanders. mark: in this poll and in the

iowa poll, sanders is gainingg. what can you tells about why sanders has moved into a tie with clinton in this poll? threee wins two out of people under age 35. those are likely to include a lot of people who have never caucused before. the other thing you see is people right now are not focused on who can win in the general election. they are focused on who aligns with my values? that's why bernie sanders is doing better. if it were the reverse, people were caring about who wins, hillary clinton mighty polling stronger -- might be polling stronger. mark: statistical pie with sanders and clinton in iowa. more disturbing picture for

hillary clinton much more optimistic for bernie sanders. again, in terms of if you are in iowa right now, what does philly clinton have to focus on -- hillary clinton have to focus on and what does bernie sanders have to focus on? sasha: the burden is more on sanders. it is a challenge for campaigns if you have people that have never caucused before. both campaigns are working off a list that they acquired from the state party. that is your core source of information. that is the starting point for all of your field programs. so, if you are building your support and showing up in polls with in frequent voters, you're starting with a huge informational disadvantage. the other challenge we see for sanders is unlike and the republican caucus where it's one eote, one man, one person, onve vote across the state, democrats

see their delegates allocated by precinct. sandersght imagine does, if you have support that is concentrated in college towns and parts of cities where white liberals are, there is not a huge advantage of running up the score in those places. he could have ordered percent of the vote, but he could find that is disadvantageous geographically. something the obama campaign did in 2008, they got college votes to -- college kids to vote where they left. there is only so much you can do if you find your supporters are in iowa city or aimes. that will be a challenge for sanders as he tries to diversify his base of support. mark: and a lot of the candidates in iowa were down the polls on the public and side and are saying, look at our favorability. the rubio campaign or the walker campaign. is that something they can cling to and say, people like us in iowa? a good you do not have

likability factor, you're going to be in trouble. the fact that there are several candidates with very high likability factors, they have to y into out how to parla actual votes. why choose this person that you are not is ginned up about even though you like them. there is a difference between who do you date and who do you marry. right now there are a lot of people you would date. [laughter] john: in another episode we will have sasha discuss that. he knows more about that than anyone. thanks for being here. we will be right back. ♪

mark: we are always live on the internet 24/7.

this program airs twice a day, 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. eastern. john: sometimes it is also on 11:00 p.m. all day long, day and night. we will see you back here tomorrow, i hope. until tomorrow, i say for both of us, sayonara. ♪ 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. alix: we are moments away from

the closing bell. i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. ♪ [closing bell ringing] alix: u.s. stocks closing higher today, rebounding from a selloff yesterday, but well off the highs of the session. joe: but the question is, "what'd you miss?" ripples before the storm. choppy markets today as all awaits the looming fed decision. u.s. stocks rise and we take a look at hard numbers. alix: and the doomsayer -- our interview with an economist to