anna: liftoff of limbo. global markets gripped by next week's fed rate decision as the imf imf piles on the pressure. that theretells us is room for the central bank to stay lower for longer. >> the job market numbers are improving. room for the fed to hold their decision for a while. -- seoul holds its rate at a record low. beijing intervention. run for kong traders its biggest weekly advance since

march with speculation that the pboc is still supporting the current base this time in the optional -- in the offshore markets. welcome to countdown. you made it to friday but i'm afraid the markets do not have much direction for us in the last 24 hours. the asian equity session starting to find its feet this morning. we picked up that coming up from the u.s. session. the u.s. market we were stronger at the close but not by a great deal. we swung in a wide range and on low volumes very apple moved a little bit higher. biotech moved a little better. everyone is focusing in on the fed, next week, and whether they won't move on those interest rates. our analyst up in a few minutes time who will take us through his analysis of what the fed is or is not going to do next week and to the end of the year. we will have some analysis on what is going on in greece at

the moment. we will talk to a man who has a tough sales pitch right now. the ceo of the great stock exchange. we will be talking with him at 7:40 a.m. london time. this is a football flavor morning as well. mark barton will be here regarding his special that will run over the weekend. munichn inside bayern special. he will be here to tell us what we can expect from it. the asian market is struggling to find some direction although on a weekly basis it looks like a decent story. let's head over to hong kong right now. investors do not know where to go today. volatility at the highest since 2011. economist, traders, they are diverging on whether or not the fed will raise interest rates next week. that is causing a lot of volatility. the nikkei has been swinging

between gains and losses all morning. currently, unchanged. the shanghai composite is unchanged but it is headed towards the first weekly gain in a month. the hang seng index is up a 10th of 1%. we are thing new zealand stocks down for 10th of 1% after we had dated this morning showing that manufacturing pmi expanded again in august. but they200 also up are seeing strong downward pressure down to -- a 10th of 1%. is key interest rate unchanged there and a record low of 1.5%. after four cuts since august of last year. --are seeing the community we are headed for the south korean wands first weekly gain in quite some time. we are seeing the japanese yen move in an opposite direction.

it is weakening for the fifth consecutive session. coming after three weeks of gains. 120.82.ading at a third of economists are saying willapanese yen, the boj increase stimulus spending next month when they meet for their policy meeting. is japanese economy contracting last quarter after two quarters of growth. despite global market turmoil, including the equity august the 11th, said officials have not been ruling out a rate hike in september. many of economists are sticking to predictions that the fed will left interest rates next week but some traders still need some convincing. let's get the caroline hyde who has the story this morning. what is being signaled by the markets? caroline: mixed signals at the

moment whether you're looking at the market, or economist. we areocus in on where strong enough to see a rate hike. ande is a two day meeting that is when we may see a decision. to occurikely september 17. treasury yields. this potentially showing a rate hike. the selloff continuing into rate treasury. ifnaling that the market your trading two-year treasury bonds, they believe a rate hike is coming imminently. economists seem to be feeling a little bit more bullish. 38 out of the 78 economists we have spoken to believe that we will see a quarter percentage point rate hike come next week. on the flip side. ust about traders telling

that we will not see a rate hike. that is coming from the fact that we see the dollar is down by 1%. see,e also starting to this shows us the implied probability of a rate hike. this is what you can really look at. the federal funds future contracts. it is showing, the market thinks 26% chance we will see a rate hike, september the 17th. next week. 26%. i just told you the economist think there is a 50-50 chance. why is it so much gloomier when you're looking at a particular -- they start to get a little more bullish as the year continues by about december they think 60% will see a rate hike.

the global markets continue to be volatile. the jury is also out about what will happen if we do see a rate hike. we have been hearing from the head funds, he has been saying that if you hike as soon as this year, you will be unwinding it. causing quantitive -- quantitative easing. we are not strong enough. many agree with him. cio of oppenheimer funds believe we will see more qe to resuscitate growth. side, citigroup, william lee, he thinks the economy is healthy enough after seven years of zero rate hikes.

u.s. strategy jp morgan, chase, they think these yields could go as high as 1.7% this year. they feel the market is not factoring in a rate hike nearly a knife. u.s. two-year treasury could yield as high as 1.7%. a very mixed picture coming from the markets. they have never seen it this mixed. street what many of the are currently telling bloomberg. someone has it wrong and there will be a major correction on the back of it. anna: that brings us to our twitter question. how you will judge the success or failure of the fed's decision next week. are you looking at short-term volatility or the fallout in global markets or are you looking at it strictly through the lens of inflation? #countdown. it minutes past 6:00 a.m. here in london. let's return to the china story

because the yuan traded in hong kong is set for the biggest weekly advance since march after the chinese central bank was seen taking the step of extending its currency support measures to the offshore markets. us what it is the chinese authorities are doing and why it is unusual? >> a pretty interesting move. they cut -- they caught the market off guard. traders are looking at the intervention as assigned by china that the yuan will not be a one-way bet going down. they want to put a floor under the depreciation. themselves and that is the move to depreciate the yuan a few weeks ago, on shore, triggered a big capital outflow for china. that is expensive because they are spending their reserves trying to support their own currency to offset that currency outflow. on the other side, china wants to make its currency more international. policy moves is

to get it accepted by the imf as a reserve currency. to do that, they need credibility. they do not want to be signaling that they are starting a currency war and they are depreciating the currency. we will put a floor under it. anna: the chinese premier it said that china has little to gain from a currency war. what are we expecting to see in the chinese currency? they devalued on august the 11th. is that a one and done move or is there more to come? the move yesterday was taken as a big surprise by the market. that china told us is not interested in a currency war or a depreciation of the yuan and it expects stability going forward. he is following through on his actions and his words. going forward with president xi obama, visiting barack

it is unlikely we will see significant weakening in the chinese currency. we have the imf decision in november on whether or not the one will go to the basket. it may not be a bad time to allow any weakness. be after those political hurdles are cleared with the washington visit and the imf decision in november. anna: the latest on the chinese currency. the bank of korea holds its key interest rate at a record low but why are some economists making its next move could be to cut even lower? let's find out, after the break. ♪

anna: welcome back. you're watching countdown, live from london. is 6:14 a.m. here in london. here are your stories. the yuan trading in hong kong is set for its biggest weekly advance rents march after china's central bank was seen

taking the unusual step of extending its currency support measures for the offshore market. extraordinary moves aimed at stopping capital out ports. following the largest evaluation of the chinese currency in more than two decades. the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged for a third month of the gauges uncertainty for the economy from china's slowdown in a possible break hike from the fed. a record low 1.5%. 18 economists were surveyed by bloomberg. if i've citigroup currency trader says a colleague who has since been promoted profited from front running clients foreign-exchange orders. the trial started earlier this week. ofis now a managing director a short currency exchange at a lender.

of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged at the record low level of 1.5%. it is in line with economists forecast. we are now joined by peter, euro chief -- bureau chief. were expecting the bank of korea to cut the rate even more. why were they expecting that? and why did the bank of korea not do it? >> the economy is not so good. china and the slowing growth there is really hurting the exports here. quarter,ea about a some estimate 30% of their exports are to china. that is hurt -- that has hurt growth here. it is lower than analysts expected and they are expecting it to be slower and so they will hoping there would be some stimulus. some of that would be a drop in the interest rate. anna: remind us of the way that the korean economy contracts

with the chinese economy. how much of the impact will we see in south korea as china slows? >> significant amount. drivernese market was a of south korea's growth for a decade. slowing, itith the will have a reverse effect and that is a considerable worry for economists here. anna: what is the likelihood of another rate cut this year? is -- it is a big number but there is a growing sentiment that they may need to cut it perhaps as early as october. some are expecting it today. now, even more analysts are thinking maybe in october. cut it today because they are waiting to see what the u.s. says do next week.

do nextthe u.s. feds week. anna: let's get more on the story coming out of china. it is taking major steps to make the yuan more of an international economy. that, those speculations the pboc has intervened in offshore yuan trading. imf deputy managing directors say that china's opening up is a good sign. --it is important the cut because they are opening to the central bankers. [indiscernible]

i think it is a very important step move forward. it is very precautionary. steps, thef these devaluation, the subsequent intervention to keep it where it is, the yuan, and now today's announcement. do any of these steps help the process move along for the review? >> i think it is the other way around. china is such a big economy and open economy. it is important for china. steps, the august thingss, all of those [indiscernible]

china's capital market is much more open. much more market-based. perspective,mf's is the new fixing mechanism come is it a move in the right direction? devaluation,nstant a managed further when percent, and then they kept it stable. we are going to keep the yuan at a stable level. that does not sound like the market will be helping to determine the value. >> they put exchange rates in the market. i think that is in the right direction. with the market volatilities, the central banks are trying to stabilize the economies. having theg-term, central government committed to further move exchange rate into more flexible -- ticked still needs to be

off to move on another step closer from the imf's perspective? >> from the operational point of view, it is the way to move exchange rates. it is important to the market base, gradually, and also to -- sure >> does the renminbi need to move to be included? how bad a shape is the chinese market in right now? for chinese companies and the --nese government [indiscernible] need very clear that we government action right now.

anna: let's get more on that story right now. let's talk a little bit about china. of policyd a barrage announcements about the currency markets and what china is doing in them. today, we are hearing about them intervening in the offshore yuan market in hong kong. where are we in the yuan story in this managed float? >> they have moved to a managed managed a more orthodox float away from their previous regime. it moved too fast. they did not like it. they are managing it more closely. in a sense, they probably wish they had not decided to do it.

inh everything going on august. now, they are calling everything down. the move to intervene in the offshore market and to some degree, it makes sense because if you see the offshore elder yuan rate moving higher and higher, get them closer together. in the long run, you would like them to converge. intervening when they are higher come you send a message on how that convergence should happen. i think all of these moves are sensible. if you want to be a reserve currency, making it possible to keep those razors in your currency seems to make sense. everything is happening at the moment and it is all eminently sensible but none of it answers the bigger question for people -- is market which is dollar-yuan going to be 6.40 or 6.90 in six months and how fast

is the chinese economy going to slow? anna: you say, if you want to be a reserve currency. are you convinced that being a reserve currency is worth this turmoil? >> i am were convinced about reserve currency status being a natural thing to happen if you are one of the world's biggest economies than if you are in the fdr being necessarily a wonderful thing. i am not sure that it changes everything very much. anna: having special drawing rights with the imf. >> that is not that big. it will not create huge demand. what i understand very clearly is that this is something that the chinese authorities want but i'm not sure why. no fx work. no currency war is the message coming through from the chinese army are yesterday. i you expected --are you surprised? do you think we will see further

weakening of the currency later on this year. when various political things are behind us like visits to washington for example. >> i think that is true and yes i think it will be weaker. the first piece of it is that if you look at this month since they moved the currency, the yuan has weakened of it. the australian dollar has weakened it twice as much. the new zealand dollar has weakened more. rial ande brazilian the korean want -- won. the chinese cannot win a currency war. the kind of move that we saw in dollar-yen. , 30% devaluation. gop a lyrically, that is -- geopolitically that is unthinkable. saw a $94that but we

billion drop in their foreign exchange reserves last month. kind ofntinue at any pace of capital outflows, i think it will make sense for them to have a managed to move higher in the dollar-you it -- dollar-yuan rate. anna: and they will not have to spend so much in their currency interventions. >> correct. they do not want to be left out losing the currency war. that does not make much sense for them. the effect on their domestic money market and trying to cope with the reserve -- of the reserve changes is difficult enough. i think it makes sense to let the currency we can in a controlled fashion. anna: thank you very much. you will stay with us and we will return to the subject of china. it seems to weave through many other conversations. we will be talking about the

ruble. its the bank of russia keep rate on hold later today. we will have analysis on that, coming up. ♪

welcome back. you're watching countdown at 6:30 a.m. here in london. the yuan trading in hong kong is set for its biggest weekly advance since march after china's enteral bank was seen taking the unusual step of extending its currency support measures for the offshore market. it is the latest in a series of extraordinary moves aimed at stopping capital outflow and countering yuan depreciation pressure. agreement hasar survived a key test in the u.s. senate as democrats blocked a republican effort to scuttle the deal.

the senate will hold another vote next week to see if any folks want to change their mind. released the first picture showing robert de niro and michelle pfeiffer as bernie and group made up. a former chairman of the nasdaq stock exchange was jailed for 150 years in 2009 after pleading guilty to a massive scheme that due to many stars along with many others. russia'sn't -- central bank as set to announce its interest rate decision later today. as it confronts a challenging economic picture. expecting to get from the central bank today? >> we are expecting the central bank to keep the rate at 11%.

in a survey of 36 economist, all but three see the rate being held. two are seeing a halfway cut and one is seeing a quarter-point cut. the economy has slowed significantly. anna: those are the expectations for the right move. put it in some context for us. what does this mean for the russian economy? is working ank very hard balancing act right now. the economy has gone into recession. thanks, companies need money for growth and 11% is still fairly high. the central bank last year-the rate to an emergency 17%. they have been rolling that back slowly by cuts this year. it is still, many say, not quite enough. on the other hand, the ruble is one of the world most volatile currencies. it has resumed a slump.

at the halfgthened point of the year and it has resumed its slide and the central bank have to take that into account so that the ruble weakening does not translate into much higher inflation. anna: thank you very much for in -- for joining us. let's get more on the global rate picture. russia today, the bank of korea today, all of these banks facing different pressures and different decision making. focusing on russia what are you expecting? >> they will probably do nothing. when you're currency falls that much, and a combination of recession, sanchez, and oil, the relation with oil is that enough that it has seen the currency weakened dramatically. that gives you inflation which for a small, big country, that

feeds into their consumer price index and that is why they had to raise rates to such a high level and that has exacerbated their economic problems. and quiet,ant peace to get their rates down as much as possible with the currency having overshot on the downside coming back. can we please workout the oil prices. can we please get some better news on the economy. the sanctions regime makes things more complicated. think they are left having to buy themselves some time and sit it out for a bit. the currency has fallen so far, it has corrected. anna: the russians are trying to work out where the commodity market is going, specifically the oil market. , they now saychs

$48 for 2015. $45 for 2016. that does not signal any recovery next year in the oil price. does that go along with what you see? >> i think it takes longer than that. what the fall in prices does is it squeezes out investment in the oil industry. it squeezes out fresh supply and we wait for global demand to catch up. global demand is not going up very fast because a lot of the fastest growers of their oil use in the emerging market economies are struggling and we are learning that you have to keep prices low for a long time before you cut back global capacity. anna: are we waiting for demand to pick up or are we waiting for some of the suppliers to turn off their taps? >> i think we would have to wait for the suppliers to turn off their taps especially when you think that iran is coming back online.

most forecasters are not lowering their forecast of oil prices but rethinking how fast it might bounce back and there was a tendency to think that we could get back halfway to where we were before but 2015 numbers coming down, are not much higher than here. losingere i sit, i think optimism about a balance is one thing. dayser couple of volatile and you may get another downdraft. the rugby world cup kicks off in britain next week and the best teams in the world will descend on the u.k.. their fans are en route as well. because of the recent currency moves, they may be spending less than they expected. let's go to johannesburg. see more rugby

fans that have less disposable income to spend? beer will cost them a lot more than they thought it was going to. smallg five pounds for a cup in the stadium. it will be costing about 100 brands for south africans. that is about three times what we are used to spending here. anna: doesn't look like it will impact the turnout? will the south africans, new zealanders, and austria speed rethinking their decision to attend based on the weakness of their a comment -- other currencies? all seen our currencies drop anonymously against the pound this year. is 17% down against the pound. thankfully, for the organizers of the tournament, the tickets

were booked more than a year ago. i think the turnout will be as good as ever. it is they may be a little more sober and able spend less at restaurants. they will buy fewer clothing and goods. thank you very much for joining us from johannesburg. -- we willurned return to that theme shortly. coming up, the behind the scenes at bayern munich. afterl go to mark barton the break. stay with countdown. ♪

anna: welcome back. you're watching countdown. it is 6:41 a.m. in london. here is the stories you need to know. the yuan trading in hong kong is set for its biggest weekly advance since march after chinese central bank was taking

the unusual step to extend the support measures to the offshore market. this is the latest in moves to stop capital outflow. following the largest evaluation of the chinese currency in more than two decades. the iran nuclear agreement has survived a key test in the u.s. senate as democrats locked a republican effort to scuttle the deal. the senate will hold another vote next week to see if any folks want to change their mind. the first picture showing robert de niro and michelle pfeiffer as mr. maddox. he was jailed for 150 years in 2009 after pleading guilty to a matthey -- a massive ponzi scheme. conned investors out of $65 billion.

let's change gears entirely now to talk about football. bloomberg was given behind the scenes access to bayern munich where mark arden is speaking exclusively to the club's chairman as well as a key player. you can see this special program this weekend but mark joins us now for a preview. good morning. mark: bayern munich. the powerhouse in german football, in global football when it comes to revenue. number four. on the brand value score number two. it lacks tv rights. i spoke with the former chairman of bayern munich. can german football and bayern munich catch up with tv rights here in the u.k.? >> first of all, we have an in pay-tv ing gap england and germany. i believe we in germany, the league made big mistakes before

wherek about 10 years ago pay-tv was established and it was built and developed in england. we were slow believing that the germany may be going differently than in england but it does not. that was a big problem and you feel that in the transfer market. england has so much of it -- the english clubs have so much of that money. it is not easy to defend that we keep our players like thomas or players from real madrid. it is very difficult to keep them. we have to do better in germany because it cannot be happened is gettingndeslig

half a billion euro if you compare that to the english market, where for instance, the number 20 of the premier league bayerning double what munich is getting. you can imagine how long this could work because especially in the transfer market. we have to be creative. good in sponsorship and merchandise. but -- sod in these the creativity is quite limited in comparison to the broadcasting money. we have to do much better in germany and that is an obligation for the german league to cash in money in favor of the clubs. telling you the truth, it is very difficult to understand. when i see the transfer activities from certain clubs

who have been penalized a year ago, it is very difficult to play isnd if financial different and how it works. i am missing the transparency. i understand the rules. i do not understand the rationality of the whole system and that is not of to me. , receive many telephone calls what is happening in the market? the year ago, some clubs were penalized and now they came back stronger than before. it is very difficult to understand that. i believe it is up to you wait for -- uefa. anna: he is skeptical about the financial fairplay regulations. trophy in every major football. mark: world cup. european championships. couple of national leagues.

the midfielder for bayern munich, we spoke investment. do you keep an --a close eye on your investment? >> i try to have control of my finances. to have a business plan. you get a great amount of money, but you need to try to be smart enough to be to have a return for the future. mark: can you give us an idea? i tried to have a nice witholio and not be hit the china crisis or other financial crisis. mark: do you keep an eye on the global financial market? >> i do because i have some

investment in those areas. i need to stay focused on these things. in there you surprised strong economy right now in europe? >> about 3%. hard ands hit really the measures had to be taken and they were tough. are good foromics the people. the unemployment rate is very high so it is not easy for those .eople mark: how often do you get a footballer who can talk about

macroeconomics, portfolios, and how for the spanish economy is growing? quite amazing. do watch the special this weekend. p.m., that is:30 saturday and sunday. i have spun off a new twitter account. might that i have a new twitter account. that i have a new twitter account. i could have lead it was available. very clever. i found out that they are music nich have au testing. mark barton, thank you very much. weekend, his

special. football,talked about we were talking briefly about rugby and about the challenges that south africa, australia, new zealanders days when they come to the u.k.. the pound is strong in their currency is weak. the you feel sorry for them in this regard? >> i will feel sorry for them if we win it. what goes around comes around in that sense that yes, for taurus -- tourists. go back a few years when all of was high. china was booming. they should have come here them. i went there then. or as all goateed total result -- anna: the consumption of beer at

rugby tournaments is a fairly inelastic number. >> the length of the time to buy at halftime and the length of the queue is all that matters. spending on goods in the shops at the stadium -- i think that is more likely to be affected. that is where the pain false. falls. imagine being transported to the center of a syrian refugee camp. it is real except you're not really there. that is the aim of the united nations virtual-reality filmmaker. steven angle caught up with him at the world economic forum. >> we walked four days across the desert to jordan. this documentary in

this two-dimensional format does not remotely represent the immersive impact of seeing it oculus virtual reality headset which places the viewer in the film. you are able to swivel and explore left and right, up and down and be with this 12-year-old in the syrian refugee camp. to shinespiration was a light on the syrian refugee crisis. we have tried so hard to get people to care. we thought if we use virtual reality and make them walk in her shoes and to use this technology to get people to understand what it was like to be there, and care, and move action. >> the technology employs multiple unmanned gopro cameras shooting 360 degrees. >> icad do things that traditional media cannot do. in financing it, you are able to get people to care about an issue and see things in a way

that they would not in a traditional cinema. >> what did the u.n. said? >> they said we were crazy. they did not understand it. it is not their fault. most of us do not understand it until you experience it. it,r they have experienced they automatically understand it. it is so hard to put it into words. >> i had a big family. one is a baby. >> it is something that needs to have its iphone moment. where it becomes so effortless to use that you are able to go into that virtual zone, without having to put on a headset to start it with the glitches. i do think it needs to have that in order for it to be not a flash in the pam. >> this technology was born from gaming. >> yes. it is mostly from gaming and

oculus. that is where a lot of people are putting their focus. we wanted to share that there is something for storytelling and cinema and social issue documentaries. given the crises around the world and people's need to do something, we are very confident that this could have an even greater market. >> given that humanitarian crisis at hand, the impact that this technology could have in fundraising, and changing perceptions. it cannot happen soon enough. >> we have been here for 1.5 years. anna: amazing pictures. let's switch gears and get back to the market story. we are joined by pete norman from bloomberg.com. of thelooking at one stories on our website. we are back to the subject of oil. whether we will see cooperation between various big suppliers of oil onto the global market to bring down supply. not looking likely is video.

-- not looking likely. and opec joining forces to turn that caps off. there are a lot of structural issues and factors that injured -- that indicate that will not happen. moscow does not run a nationalized oil company. there are harsh siberian winters and complex technology which will work against turning off taps quickly. there are also economic issues. arabia is 20%. anna: all of that making cooperation between putin and the members of opec unlikely. it could move oil prices? ago, theye of weeks said this would happen. there was a peak in june.

it is now 25% below that peak. it does not look like it. there is also historic precedent for this. it was first mentioned in the soviet era in the 1970's. again during 9/11 and the global financial crisis. anna: this is a complex game. no supply at one thing to be the one that has to do the cutting back. needs andve different different pressure points. if the low oil producer is saudi have aand you need to low enough price for long enough to slow down the march of technology that is increasing the glut. that is a long time with low prices. and corporation with opec will not change that. and the second thing is the

influx of technology. anna: thank you very much. coming up, the imf ways into the fed lift off debate. more on that when we return. ♪

anna: liftoff limbo. gripped by the rate decision as the imf piles on the pressure. the room for the central bank to stay lower for longer. >> please see the jobs market, but we feel it is not as strong. we see that the normal for the heafed will hope. anna: the bank of korea holds its benchmark interest rate at a record low in china's slowdown, fueling economic uncertainty. beijing intervention. it heads for its biggest weekly events since march. pboc is still supporting the

currency, this time in the offshore markets. welcome back to countdown. i am anna edwards, live from london. the global markets are struggling to find direction. the asian session is struggling to find its feet this morning, picking up from where the u.s. closed off. let us recap where we have been. the u.s. market is closing up stronger, apple moving higher in session along with some biotech companies. generally speaking, we were swinging in a wide range. it seems that, lacking much conviction ahead of next week's crucial interest rate decision by the federal reserve. that takes us to our quarter aretter question -- you focused on the short-term gyrations in the market that may or may not result? or are you focused more on the

long-term? do you need a couple years? plenty more fed analysis coming up a little bit later in the program. we have one eye on greece today. we will be talking once again about the greek economy. the ceo of the greek stock exchange has a pretty tough job at the moment. maybe he will tell us it is not as hard as we think -- we will speak to him a little later. let's head now to hong kong for an update. spoke,last time we markets in asia were struggling to find their feet -- have things changed? still well, we are lacking clear direction of where markets are going this morning. still, we are seeing shares overall rise for the first time on a weekly basis. this will be the first time in eight weeks. the nikkei -- we do not know where that was going to go through the session, but it ended lower 2/10 of a percent.

still, given that historic rally, what it gained -- the shanghai composite is down half a percent, trading is pretty thin in chinese stocks today. the shanghai composite volume is about half right now. that was after we saw the offshore you want jump by a record, amid speculation of state intervention. the hang seng gained 6/10 of a percent. new zealand finished lower for tenths of a percent. manufacturing data is out showing the sector expanded again. i in august. a strong downward pressure on friday, down more than 1% after the central bank had cut the key no,rest rate there -- didn't cut, but held at study, 1.5%. a record low.

they already cut four times in august last year and decided to keep it steady. we are seeing the korean won being one of the big gainers, rising 8/10 of a percent. also seeing the malaysian ringgit come off its 17 year low, strengthening slightly, but still gaining momentum. the japanese yen weekend -- and look at this. the fifth consecutive session after three weeks of gamein, after 1/3 of economists surveyed think the boj will ease further next month. rate have the malaysian decision coming out in the afternoon here in asia, so do much of for that. anna: thank you very much. shery ahn in hong kong. despite global market turmoil that followed the currency devaluation in china, fed officials have not ruled out an

interest rate hike in september. many are sticking to predictions that they will left interest rate next week at some traders still need convincing. caroline hyde has some analysis. we are getting mixed signals not just from the trading environment, it is a very mixed picture. caroline: jury is out, resolutely. there is one signal that might be showing certain traders think we will see a rate hike as soon as next week. it is a two-day meeting. they are at the highest yield 2011, yield is getting higher and many are anticipating that rates will rise. so that is pushing us in that direction. meanwhile, the economists we surveyed are a bit more bullish about a rate rise. w

50% believe we will see a rate hike next week. flip side thinks not. let's have a check-in on the great function of the bloomberg terminal, one that looks at the federal funds futures contract. that looks at the likelihood of a rate hike, to probability. it continues to fall. have a little look -- september 17, the probability of a rate hike is 26%. this is what traders of the federal fund futures contract inieve, only 26% probability . september. -- probability in september. by november, 60%. but they certainly seem to believe that this week is too soon. thatly people are feeling we haven't got the sentiment at the moment. the dollar is on the downward trajectory, hinting we will be seeing a rate hike quite as soon

as next week. but what we have to keep front and center in our mind, one party is wrong. one has there trades on the wrong side of the market and there will be a major correction a matter what happened come september 17. the market will move in reaction to whatever happens because some people are betting the wrong way. when you're looking at the big money managers, they, too, are very split. we have been hearing from a hedge fund titan who has been saying that a rate increase blunder because the global economy is too vulnerable. he believes it would be so dire that we would need to unleash more quantitive easing. another, the cia of oppenheim , also agrees, saying we need to resuscitate growth. larry summers, previously the treasury secretary, also think that is too soon.

on the other camp, who feels the market is strong enough? citigroup. william lee. the economy is healthy enough and that is why he is focusing on the time being nigh. some think that this two-year yield will get to 1.7%. we will see significant moves. the market is not pricing in. anna: thank you very much. the yuan traded in hong kong for its biggest weekly advance since march after the central bank was seen taking an unusual step of extending its support of the currency to the offshore market. remind us why it is that we are seeing this action from the chinese authority. >> good morning, anna. two theories on this one. one is that china wants to signal to the world that it is

not a one-way bet. it will not do with depreciation. course, you also need to offset capital outflows from the country. people are moving out because they are worried that the chinese currency will begin. -- will weaken. the other side of the debate is that china wants to make its currency more international. part of that strategy is to get accepted by the imf as a reserve currency. to do that, they have to have credibility. they don't want to be seen as weakening the currency just to help exporters, with currency wars. they want to be willing to take pain, till at the market dictate the currency. to prove it is not all about competitive devaluation. and where do we think the currency sector heads from here? as you pointed out, the premier

was talking about how china has to look at the game from a currency war. where we expecting to see the currency hadead, then? enda: yesterday's move in hong kong was seen as a surprise for the premier, who was being very explicit and said china does not want a currency war. don't be betting on you want yuanciation -- on depreciation. it was a signal that it may be stable. we have some political events coming up. washingtonnt goes to later this month and it is unlikely they will let the currency weaken. then beyond that we have the imf decision. around november, the yuan may go into reserve. we know thehat, exports story remains weak in

china. you imagine there will be a lot of pressure on authorities to let the currency we can, to let the market push it down. it will be one to watch. you. enda, thank let's rejoin our guest host for this morning. and weng is amiss, kit, haven't really got to grips with what your view is on the fed. this looms big on the horizon, doesn't it? next week we could get an interest rate decision from the fomc. what is your view? kit: my hope is that you get on with it, at this point. i think the really big problem -- i will be back here pretty quickly saying october or december. we're at the point where the fomc wants to get rates off zero, but they are having an internal debate about the

volatility, and should we wait a bit? at that stage, waiting doesn't help, because it doesn't add to volatility. people tellingf us that if you raise rates the world will end, really? we have bigger things to worry about. why would the world and? because of all the volatility? much of it is caused by having interest rate of zero. i think there are strong arguments from getting away from zero, doing what they are bound to do, which is to talk down the long-term path of rights. will actually do -- it is a coin toss at this point. backed away from these decisions. anna: we will see. we have heard some of the arguments you're pointing out for a rate rise.

a lot of interesting arguments for why a rate rise should take ways. some are suggesting it needs to go higher to spark investment, get people realizing that they better invest now, because money may be more expensive in the future. other people saying, if you take it to lose, it spurs volatility. but doesn't it all come down to inflation, in the end? isn't it supposed to come down to inflation? we see a lack of it in the numbers at the moment. and you can degree, have a very long debate about how much we should try to just focus on consumer present nice inflation. if we have a global economy, demand globally is weak, there is an excess of goods, we won't get much inflation, where machines replaced people at a rapid pace. if we wait for inflation to come back to push interest rates up, i think we may miss price the

cost of money on true not having investment in real capacity, more m&a, what happens in financial markets. if we just have this myopic focus. anna: thank you very much. this is a conversation we will continue. we had before a little bit longer. thank you very much for staying around. coming up, could barcelona split from spain? we bring you a special report on catalonia's campaign for independence in the lead up to to the region's vote. ♪

anna: welcome back. 17 minutes past 7:00 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged for third month as it engages

uncertainty for the economy from china's slowdown, and a possible rate rise by the federal reserve. the decision to hold at the record low was forecasted by 16 out of 18 economists. aa citigroup currency trad simpson, whoperry started his unfair dismissal trial earlier, is now a managing director of short-term interest rate foreign-exchange. the bank says the accusations are unfounded. petrograd has been downgraded to junk. the $56 billion of outstanding currency is the largest in the world. marks a national day in catalonia as the start of a high-stakes election battle.

catalonia goes to the polls on september 27 in a regional election that is being framed as a vote on independence. we followed pro-independence leaders as they gear up for what is a crucial campaign. >> our poll center for the campaign for the independence of catalonia. 1000 volunteers have come here to call people from catalonia, sharing with them a few things about independence. even the fears that some people have about independence. we think that this very close communication with our people is key to improve the idea of

independence of catalonia. if we become independent, we will have more possibilities in this new world, in this new century. angel of thean spanish economy. people havestrophes mentioned years ago, increasingly they are independent. these catastrophes are not real. catalonia is leading the growth by exports, by tourism, by investment, by job creation. >> what the separatist government is doing now is the worst they can do.

why? because they are introducing instability, political instability, civil instability. they are producing a coup d'etat, and it is the worst you can do for the economy. catalans have no right to secede, no right to decide about sovereignty, because it is shared with all the others. >> we will be spanish, french, english -- we must all together, working for the same, for a better country and better catalonia. anna: let's get more on that story, live from the spanish capital. charles, good to see you. how likely is it that catalonia will vote for independence on september 27? i know it is not officially a

vote about that, or at least -- well, explain. charles: that's right. the vote that has been called for september 27 is being framed by the head of the cattlalan government as a vote for independence. the situation remains quite unclear. we had an opinion poll yesterday which showed the technical draw. it had the independence platform voting, apparently showing there would be support for independence, but it would have to rely on the votes of the radical anti-catholic party. the situation is quite unclear, but it is certainly heating up as we move into the pre-election period. -- if thethe people

people of catalonia vote for independence, how does that look for the region's economy? how would the economy fare? charles: well, catalonia is a large economy. it is one of the engines of the spanish gp. -- gdp. it is a region with several million inhabitants. -- and looks like a region that on its own could be a viable independent economy, no question. that really comes back to the questions about whether this is something this is good for the wider spanish economy, whether it is something that can be allowed to happen under the current spanish status quo. anna: charles, thank you very much. let's rejoin our guest host for the morning, the global strategist. this is something that is moving markets, isn't it? it is moving the perception of risk. kit: it is important to bond

market traders that the yield on spanish government debt has moved above italian government debt again. instinct of looking at italy's weaker economy, the they havet position, a recovery coming through that has seen better days. certainly would not have been successful in the last few weeks, as the story has gathered momentum and conserved. anna: from one country with an independence question hanging over it to one that had one for a while and may have won again in the future, the u.k. -- we talked about the bank of england about their thoughts on the global turmoil. that hasn't changed their view on the u.k. colony, has it? kit: is quite different from some of the stuff you get. we mustn't raise interest rates because of global turmoil, we

shouldn't exaggerate the significance of this for the global economy. it was more or less the message from the mpc. i do think it alters the fact that we will see you can rates go up, after they have gone up in the united states. mpc has more freedom to ignore market volatilities, the economic linkages are so important and the u.k. economy is strong, wage growth is picking up, the unemployment rate is low. i worry that the you care economy is slowing, where you may not need to work. but it is an interesting contrast. if you take a lie concerns about markets -- markets don't care what the mpc does at a broader level. contrast to what mario draghi said, isn't it? of different linkages between the eurozone and the economy in china, or is it because the central bank is

understandably trying to make sense of the world like everybody else, and mario draghi wants to keep policy loose and this is another reason to do it linkages, are bigger for one of the feelings of the u.k. is that we don't export enough to the fastest-growing part of the world. the germans are better at it, that is true. got a lackrio draghi of inflation and growth, unemployment rate, and saw the currency get stronger again this morning. he is sitting there trying to gently hint to us, whatever it takes, i will do it to make sure we don't slide into deeper disinflation. anna: in china perhaps plays into that. thank you very much for staying with us this morning. 7:26. we will take a break. after months of campaigning, the labour party announces new leaders. who is the favorite and what

could it mean for the u.k. economy? the u.k. political scene -- stay tuned, more on that story. we will go live to westminster after this break. ♪

anna: welcome back. 7:30 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. the yuan traded in hong kong, said for its biggest weekly advance since march after china's central bank was seen taking an unusual step of extending currency support measures for the offshore markets. it is the latest in a series of extraordinary moves aimed at slowing capital outlives. following the largest evaluation and more than two decades. the bank of korea has kept his interest rate unchanged as the gauges uncertainty for the economy and a possible rate rise by the federal reserve. that is kept at a record low.

the citigroup currency traders as a colleague who has since been promoted profited from foreign exchange orders. he started his trial earlier now week and implicated a managing director of short-term interest rate foreign-exchange. the bank says the accusations are unfounded. after months of campaigning the labour party announces its new leader tomorrow, the favorite to win is jeremy gorgas, whose tookausterity message him to a bookmakers favorite. the rival candidate criticized the parties recent direction. >> over the past five years, we have failed to take on hard stances on a range of issues, from public finances to the public services and britain's

role in the world. , we [indiscernible] anna: our political correspondent joins us now from westminster. good to see you. is this a win for jeremy corgan? is this scene is a done deal? much ae: it is pretty done deal -- it is an extraordinary story when you think of this as a man only making it onto the ballot at the last minute. david cameron is expected to say later today that the development of the financial stretch, that it is an acknowledgment that he is the clear winner. anna: what are the immediate consequences of that, then? svenja: the biggest challenge will be within the labour party. he has very strong support among

party members. he has terry little support among mps. we have a number of senior laborers saying they would not expect to work with him in a shadow cabinet. people like tony blair, one of labor's main figures, is saying he could set labor back 100 years. anna: remind us what are his most controversial policies. he has not been afraid to stand out from the crowd over the decades, has he? svenja: no, not at all. he voted against his own party on a number of issues. his economic policy is perhaps the most out there. he is advocating something, for qe, for cap on maximum salaries. anna: thank you. foreign policy could be brought to the fore if we consider what

might happen around the serious story. we are joined from westminster. let's return to the market story. let's have a look at what is happening on the markets right now, get to shery ahn. shery: we are looking at chinese stocks now, currently unchanged. but given their rally earlier in the week, we are headed for a weekly gain for the first time in a month. the shanghai composite is down a little bit right now, but we are seeing some trading being a little bit thin, given that we are only seeing half the volume of the shanghai composite's three-month average, this after the offshore you one -jumped by a record- -- yuan jumped by a record. the hang seng is also headed for a gain for the first time since july. we are seeing an interesting call out of deutsche bank, saying that investors should buy

asia shares because they see them up slide for the stock. they are saying that they have an upbeat outlook for the second half, a stronger fiscal stimulus from china, with macro fundamentals. they are calling in upside on the index, the target of 13,000, given that the level is at around 9800, an up slide of more than 30%. they are calling for i.t. come utilities, and industrial. let me take you through some of the movers here in china. today we are looking at international because he has big news out of the company not doing much right now, but we are hearing they are proposing billion in an effort to fund their push into banking and insurance. the company plans to sell as many as 871 million new shares. imeshare's rating has been

upgraded by morgan stanley, although slipping because of oil prices, but their rating has been upgraded b. back to you. anna: thank you. shery ahn in hong kong. the asian session is finding it hard to find its feet in today's trading. a little directionless. let's have a look at where the european equity markets might open up. 25 minutes or so away from the start of trading. the patch of green suggests that the futures market is going to bounce a little bit at the start of the trade. euro stocks has been up by 4/10 of a percent. go withsee where we the question of the fed hanging over the market. less than half an hour to go until the start.

let's get to our next guest, james evans. good to see you. despite all the turmoil we have seen over august, you still feel confident enough, perhaps even because of the turmoil, overweight of equities as an asset class. james: absolutely. we have been going through a correction rather than a bear market. the fact that prices have gone down suggests to me that we have a little further to run. anna: so you are using this as an opportunity to get into stocks that would have been expensive before. james: absolutely. but i still worry that quality stocks are on high valuations, that investors have to bet aggressively. that looks to be a very tricky bet to be taking. for me there is an issue of

taking over the rate to see where value lies. couldk the telecom sector offer some fantastic opportunities. anna: you quite like the free cash flow, the dividends, and the momentum around profitability. james: the companies have engaged in a lot of self-help. profits,keen to grow and they intend to recycle the profits back. then,i suppose in europe, if you are looking to play the european recovery story, are you looking for companies with a lot of self-help and exposure to the european consumer? is that where the near-term future is? james: i look to european banks and i see devaluation. they are now ready to rumble. i would be looking at some of the good quality plays. i think there is a great opportunity. i continue to be wary of greece. is probability of grexit

rising rather than falling. there must come a point where they simply fail because the pain is too great. anna: we will be speaking to the ceo of the greek stock exchange shortly. maybe we will put your thoughts to him. you talked favorably about the banking stocks -- what about the airline sector? it iswer oil price -- increasingly entrenching itself. james: indeed. and it is a big issue in terms of capacity. there were a lot of cancellations, suggesting that profitability of companies can continue far longer than people are suggesting. i think one of the very interesting upsides that people don't talk about is the long-term impact of the oil price. in the mid-1980's there was a similar significant downward move. sustainedial and

response from equities -- we don't have that this time. wea: is a taking longer than have previously seen for the weaker oil price to be seen as a positive? we have very much seen the turmoil in emerging markets, commodity exporting countries. that has been the downside. that we haven't yet seen, to a great degree, the upside, which will probably show itself and developed market consumers. james: absolutely. emerging markets contributed half of global growth in recent years, 80% of credit creation. investors are nervous of what is going on. but equally, lower oil prices put a lot of money in people's pockets and one can calculate that a new york taxi driver will probably make an extra $2000 per year because of low oil prices. anna: you could spend quite a bit on fuel.

valuations is one side of the investment story, but there is also the liquidity question. the fed next week -- whether we will see an increase of interest -- how loose do you think monetary policy being around the world as we go forward, and it is something that is supportive of equities despite any tightening? james: i think it is a hard call. on the face of it, central banks remain immensely quantitive. but we also get a large chunk of quantitative easing ending up in the so-called carry trade. people took cheap dollars overseas, went into entities with a lot of interest, those entities overcharge and that is a big ramping up of liquidity. a small movement could be quite a significant global change in liquidity. but i dolearly a risk, think central banks are aware of these issues, so it is a very important debate. it's not as if the market is

unaware of the risk, and that i find comforting. anna: we will watch to see what happens and emerging-market. james, thank you very much for joining us. great to see you. greek stocks have lost 40% of their value this year. we ask about investment opportunities during the annual greek roadshow, when we are joined next by the ceo of the greek stock exchange. details after the break. ♪

anna: welcome back. 7:45 in london. up fork politicians gear the snap elections on september 20, business leaders are looking to build on the country's economy. the annual greek roadshow is taking place at bloomberg, bringing entrepreneurs and investors. we are joined by the ceo of the athens stock exchange. welcome to the program.

thanks for taking the time to come and talk to us. is this a good time to be holding a roadshow about investment in greece? greece has been top of the headlines, as you said to me in the break, for a long time, but not for the right reasons. socrates: there are investment opportunities involved. i think that many people were doubting about the time, as you mentioned, but it has been proven that it was a very good moret, because we have than 650 meetings here, for 28 companies that are out here. they are presenting themselves to the investors, and more than 150 analysts will come here to participate. anna: and when you talk to potential investors, are they in general skeptical? do you have to work hard to convince them of the merits of

investing in greece? socrates: we are not convincing them, we are presenting them the facts. i believe that, as you have mentioned, it is a continuing process, because in global capital markets, it is hard to find investment opportunities. with things like this, where we have had a program of restriction, and companies have formed, the picnic now in the financials. there are opportunities. anna: i spoke to james just before the break, he says he is staying away from greek assets because he sees the chances of a grexit, the chance that greece will leave the eurozone, as increasing and not decreasing. is it something that you find many investors are concerned about? socrates: i don't think that investors we are meeting are concerned about this nowadays.

it was an important discussion over the last five years, and i think it is clear now, in terms -- mainly in, that believe that issues like this are stirring the future. anna: what is the future of the real economy? where is the growth driver going to come from? socrates: look, i can tell you what is happening this year, where there is a perception of being down 24%, but there are sectors like real estate, food and beverage, chemicals, oil and resources -- they have double-digit positives in terms -- anna: so the overall index picture is too much influence by the banking sector. socrates: absolutely. anna: when you are talking to businesses that may want to list

on your stock exchange, are they convinced of the reason to list in greece versus elsewhere? they could list anywhere in europe -- why with a list and greece? that being saying listed in athens has caused problems for them recently. is this something that greek businesses are concerned about? might some greek businesses decide to leave athens? socrates: you know that the european environment of capital markets is very competitive. the greek market environment has had difficulties in the last five years, but i believe that offering an environment where companies can penetrate the capital market community, and this has been proven over the years. the accessibility of foreign investors is 60% of the total activity in the market.

fullye a market that is accessible by the international investment community. it will be open in the competition -- anna: how close are we to a normal functioning greek stock market, do you think? we still have some regulations an in place. socrates: i think that the most important problem will be resolved immediately. we have had the opportunity to discuss it. the general of capital market thatves -- the problem is the greek restrictions have to access capital markets with the positives in the banking system, and i am sure that this will add immediately. anna: we look for some news on that, then. thank you for joining us.

good luck with the roadshow. the ceo of the athens stock exchange. bloomberg will be bringing you full coverage of the developments and greece in the run-up to the snap elections, including the coverage of the election that takes place on september 20. seven on 51. minutes away from the start of the european trading. here with us to look at some of the stocks that might be on the mood, caroline. caroline: we are set for the best we can two months on the that we couldling have a higher day in terms of the stocks to be watching. let's have a look at one particular pharmaceuticals stock, being called a little bit lower. it is adding up a u.s. company to the tune of $2.5 billion. a have confirmed that they are indeed in preliminary talks that they may be assessing a bid, and

they are in preliminary talks, assessing a number of potential acquisitions. though stocks could be pushed in a downward trajectory today. meanwhile, we have another ecompany -- a time emaker is removing their chinese sales force due to corruption allegations. this was reported in germany, and has been confirmed by a spokesperson. shares are coming down to the tune of 2% or 3%. lastly i will end on a high. regis could be pushed higher by 3% to 5%. regis is a supplier of office space in the united kingdom. once again, rumors are rumbling around the market that they rejected a 3 billion pound bid by a private equity player, saying that this could be blackstone, but we understand

they could be targeted by other private equity companies. that is another stocks he watching this morning. anna: a few stocks to watch on a fairly quiet reporting day. caroline, thank you. let's turn our attention to the next hour of programming. "on the move" is up next in jonathan ferro is here. are heavy on debate with the imf pleading to hold off -- we have the deputy director. the debate i am talking about is the potential for more stimulus from the boj. the third of economists see it happening as soon as next month. a little later in the show, $20 oil? goldman sachs is slashing forecasts, looking to go below $50 per barrel in 2016. not the base case but a potential scenario. mining the rout.

we will look at one sector and stock in particular -- glencore -- with the biggest ball in the city of london to the price tag of four pounds 50. anna: thank you very much. he is up for the next hour. do information coming through from india is a central bank, said to take account of gdp growth in r.b.i. policy. india's government is set to plan a setting cpi target, system developments around the banking story in india. the central bank governor is set to get a tie-break vote. we will look at that story as we go through. much optimism around the indian economy in recent years, among the reforms that the government has been putting in place, a number of people looking for india to pick up where china left off. we will get more analysis as it develops. we should take a look at where

the futures are trading right now. are looking for something a little bit positive at the start of trading. the u.s. session yesterday was a positive one, but it wasn't all that convincing. if you look at that green section you can see that we are expecting to see moves higher. the u.s. session did close in positive territory, apple and the buyer tax higher, the asia market struggling. we are going to see some moves higher this friday morning. all in all, the attention is being focused on next week, on what we are going to hear from the federal reserve. that will do it for "countdown." ♪

duck-hook good morning. happy friday. i am jonathan ferro from bloomberg's european headquarters. woman's away of the start of european trading. liftoff limbo. the imf managing to tell it bloomberg there is room for the fed to stay longer. remained under pressure. according to a survey, more than a third of economists think the bank of japan will boost its stimulus in the next month. goldman sachs flashes forecast. trading below $50 a barrel for next year. ditch afford to go as low as $20 a barrel. futures higher up

by eight points. back in the green. let's could do market open for you with caroline hyde. caroline: we could and on a high note -- we could end on a high -- note. it despite that selloff yesterday, remember those three strong days at the beginning of the week. a little bit of risk out there today. the imf cools some concerns about whether the fed should be raising rates. the imf says no, we have time to wait. those federal futures funds are signaling we will see a delay or push back. we will only see 26% of the market of that derivative market in terms of funds. we will see a rate hike.