by eight points. back in the green. let's could do market open for you with caroline hyde. caroline: we could and on a high note -- we could end on a high -- note. it despite that selloff yesterday, remember those three strong days at the beginning of the week. a little bit of risk out there today. the imf cools some concerns about whether the fed should be raising rates. the imf says no, we have time to wait. those federal futures funds are signaling we will see a delay or push back. we will only see 26% of the market of that derivative market in terms of funds. we will see a rate hike. 50-50 says the market is mixed

as to where we will go next week. a little pop in equities. we are seeing a good week for copper did training up .1%. more than 5% trading here in london and asia. clearly there has been an appetite as we see glencore output back where there -- where the output for copper will be going. not so when you look at another commodity, oil on the downward should victory. trajectory.wnward cutting 2015 outlook for crude $248. to's -- outlook for crude $48.

-- it is eyeing up a company in the u.s., ff pharma. and manages office space could it have really been 3 billion pounds. it was a blackstone potentially, but the rumors continue. the share price goes higher. by .6%.tal up they are pulling back on china, because of corruption investigations. back to you. jonathan: 10 minutes into it -- two minutes into the session. another choppy week. shery ahn, your asian market wrap. shery: it is a mixed picture

today with markets lacking. the shanghai composite wasn't negative territory most of the day. in the last 40 minutes, stocks regaining ground it finishing unchanged. volume only half of its three-month average. that is after the offshore yuan jump. the hang seng index getting .4% -- index gaining .4%. the nikkei, we did not know where the market was going, but .2%.nished down with that rally earlier, the nikkei is on a positive note. gaining on a weekly basis for the first time in a month. new zealand down about the same amount. as he lined we had -- new zealand, we had manufacturing data out, showing expansion in

august. bank keepingntral its key interest rates steady. one of the big gainers inch .8%. strengthening jonathan: have a great weekend and asia. we are lookingd, forward to fed today, september 17, when the market finds out if the fed will hike rates. again, has waited once declaring the time is not right. crooks we see the job -- >> we see the job market -- we see there is room for the fed to hold their position for a while.

>> the market is confused. the desks some say the rate hike is on. some say it will be delayed. -- some say the rate hike is on. some say it will be delayed. gold currently trading lower. golda signaling we could see rates on the high side. member septimus 17th, we could see a quarter of a percentage point rise. yields,-year treasury that is another to keep an eye on. foreign costs push higher. that giving us a signal that a rate rise is on. economists are more bullish. when we ascertain the views of economists, 38 out of 78 think a rate hike could happen as soon as next week. basically, 50-50. look at the other end of the market, who said a rate rise will not happen on septimus 17th --o one, this great function

september 17? for one, this great function -- derivative traders giving us their sentiment. only 28% believe that a move will come september. only if you believe that next week will be the go date. that is one great function to keep your eye on. that is the federal funds futures rates. the dollar is dropping as well. over the last few days, perhaps money coming off the table as to whether there will be a rate hike. the tom is not desk the time is not now. jonathan: let's bring in our guest, antonin jullier. great to have you with us. we talk about the fed and market pricing. how much is that about people's

pricing of what the fed doesn't next month? antonin: a bit of both. if we look beyond fed futures. look at oil price moves, it was clear the lack of liquidity being obvious. it did over exacerbate. the rate hikes which is? instruments are market price. the weight feels like 25 or 28%. in looks really low. jonathan: we are talking about the fed. the discussion is happening with the bank of japan. what they might do next. one third of economist telling earth did these guys

by? they reached for me etf's. -- for more etf's. what you think now? antonin: the big question has is the market discounting what we have saw? the nikkei outperform. -- the nikkei outperformed. it was on the upper end of the fair value. down 60% in a month. that's down 16% and a month. month. 16% in a in the context of ecb, what is happening in china. tim: we're going to talk about china. the final question in this

section, the world is not working like it used to. --riott draghi came out and that is fascinating. euro-dollar punches. we raise all of the losses. if they pull the trigger on qe2, will the market work the way it works in q1. antonin: it should. if you look at qe, where the euro trade rated price. it raised a lot of weakness. the second aspect is inflation. when is gone down. aspect is inflation. it has gone down. gdp -- tapping gdp. growth has been muted.

the central banks stepped in. a big question was given the , we needed the central banks to beat self supported. that is what draghi did. jonathan: we are going to talk china after the break. coming up, the imf says you want reform is necessary. how close is the currency to being supported? onded the rout, glencore is the road to amend its debt burden. stay with us. ♪

jonathan: your top stories on bloomberg. today marks the 14th anniversary of the september 11 terrorist attack in the united states. it was the worst attack on united states oil -- united states soil since pearl harbor. billionaire considering the layout -- considering a buyout overseaswith an partner. he's got the plan three months ago when an agreement cannot be reached. goldman sachs has cut its oil forecast. pushing brent below $50 a barrel next year.

the potential for crude to drop as low as $20 a barrel. china is taking big steps to make the yuan more of an international currency could the country opened its foreign the mystic exchange market to central banks. imf whoengle's spoke to says china opening up is a positive sign. >> it is the way to move. it is important to the market base. gradually. the interestsure is market-based. >> does the remedy need to be floatable? >> not necessarily. jonathan: the hong kong trade of yuan is up. to nick, let's get out waters. , the question remains. what are the government up to

the -- what is the government up to? --: the shark is nick: the shark is in the water. when the government intervenes, it sends a message saying be. watch where you are swimming. establish a more freely convertible yuan, given the market control here it -- control. that pushes down the onshore yuan. interpretive as a way to push speculators out. to push up short positions. if the government more control over the yuan to give it the course that the government sees the currency. jonathan: have a urgent we can. let's bring back in antonin

jullier. antonin, quantitative heightening. a word that is now in capital letters ever since the chinese central bank devalued the currency. do you pay much attention to that debate? , it's evidence is there that it is happening? antonin: we do pay attention. risk assets are correlated to central bank expansion. in this case, it is about china selling back u.s. bonds to shore -- whatever was bought by the fed, [indiscernible] that is quantitative tightening. any event we have done to try it tofy it, boj, we find be a driver. the growth is still there.

the question about china is not about where is it going to go? and what is going to the impact on the rest of the world? quantitative tightening has been a big driver of risk assets. in any portfolio management model, we would expect when equities to go lower, bonds would go higher. bonds and equities, they receive a lot of equities -- bonds didn't really as much. that created a technical pressure. gross reduction of bonds. technical than fundamental. jonathan: the technical correction has fueled heightened risk.

it's at a point where it is so extreme you become a buyer echo antonin: sheet triggered some oversold signals. it rebound. is difficulty we've had there was a shock. we been all trying to explain it. been all trying to explain it. trying to find a spin. mutual funds were not in the office. fund managers -- hedge fund managers were not in the office as well. proxies,ook at market we need to differentiate between what the flows are make it -- are making. there has been a sizable disconnect in the last few weeks. china is slowing down. there are some inflationary fears. we probably overpriced them. question, if top

you could answer you would have a wealth of money, if we are pricing in the work that you all have done, zero eps growth, another 10% correction on the back of that? what about pricing in that? antonin: that would be harder. we've got problems for eps growth of 10%. the last month as it reprice affected zero. either the world is slowing down and there is more downside to eps growth. we are not going to stay were yard. we think another 10% down in the market would price a huge amount of negative news. it is a recognition that there is an increased risk of

recession. jonathan: the market moves before the economists. crews get cut. goldman sachs, $20 oil could be on the card. glut persists. details after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome back to on the move. i am jonathan ferro. goldman sachs making headlines.

cutting its price forecast on crude. the bank says oil would fall to $20 a barrel if the glut continues. it is not the best case scenario, but it has made headlines. where joined by antonin jullier. will $20 oil -- they revised their forecast. maybe the real headline is they see rent at $50. what did you think of the note? >> that is quite right. is theey're saying market we have seen this year is going to persist for longer. next year, we're going to see global inventory build. pretty gloomy outlook. jonathan: before the break, who are talking about going after the markets. the oil majors, the managers were not pricing and $50 oil. they thought there was going to be a rebound. goldman sachs says they're going

to roll over once again. emphasizing that point. when you look at the oil majors, where you stand? they are pricing a lot of oils i guess. they went neutral. the argument was not to be bullish on oil. the argument was that they are on a on a price of trading 30% though valuations over 30 years. i mean 30 year low by uh and's. 30 year low valuations. we see they are optimizing the balance sheets, maintaining the dividend and try to restructure themselves. the positioning has been low as well.

we are not saying it is going to bounce it just yet. at least on a 12 month basis, we think we are not far away from bottom by uh and's in the oil majors. jonathan: well, i imagine when goldman sachs put out that note, they had it good idea that anybody would talk about is a 20 dollar oil and what is the scenario that takes crude from around $50 to $20. will: you can build a case. we are still inducing about 2 million barrels a day. more than what we need. that oil has got to find somewhere to go. the goldman they are asking is what happens if the world takes get filled. and you suddenly have oil coming off the market with no place to go. jonathan: we talked about market structure and how some of these corrections were technical. when we talk about oil, we talk about fundamentals. so be talking about technicals?

will drive shorter term price action. in increased supply and demand. there is work coming in the next few months. [indiscernible] are going to stop moving the market. the reason you can bounce so hard and so fast, is because of the short positioning. jonathan: antonin jullier, thank you for joining us. we dropake a pledge, if to $20 a barrel, i will do my best to buy my -- i will do my best to buy a barrel of crude and put it in my backyard. coming up, we speak to the biggest glencore -- we will be back in two. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. welcome back to bloomberg tv. 30 minutes into the trading session. i'm going to bring up the equity market board. and bring you up-to-date on what is happening over in germany. wolfgang schaeuble speaking this morning. one of the market is suffering from excessive liquidity. you can put one of two together and make whatever you want. 4/10 of 1%. down by switch of the board. i'm going to talk about fx. dollar, 13 flat. jockeys birthday comes out with very bullish words. draghi's birthday comes out

with very bullish words. crude down 1.8%. let's get your stock movers. caroline hyde. caroline: thank you very much. let's look at one of the standout gainers. it is tdc -- we just charging ahead, up 3.5%. this is a u.k. company, helps provide us with office space. it seems to be in the m&a spotlight. saying 3 mail has been million pounds approach family turned down by the likes of tracks own. the ongoing debate on whether it will be a target, driving it higher. on the flipside is the downward should victory of tdc. down 5.5%.

rival is offth its the table. shares plunging. saying the dividend payment is at risk. the lowest in almost three years at the moment for this stock price. we are seeing eleanor scrapped their overall merger. this is why you're seeing this stock under duress. goldman sachs shouting out about oil. u.k. shouting out about rices as well. overall, it is coming us u.k. power estimates have been cut by 10% by goldman sachs. no recovery seen in the u.k. power prices. caroline hyde, think you very much. let's bring you unemployment data out of sweden.

unemployment coming in at 6.4% in the month of august. the survey we saw, 6.8%. dp the second quarter, that is gdp revised higher -- the in the second quarter is a revised higher. the qe program, the data doesn't look too bad. we will talk about sweden later. i want to talk about the minors. after announcing plans to sell shares and assets, glencore had a big boost. on monday, the stock jumped on the most since january 2013. then the enthusiasm slipped away. i want to bring in our guest to talk about this. paul gait, senior research analyst. john meyer at sp angel. i'm to start with you john. the big assumption. are we going to get a big rise issue?

john: it doesn't look like it's going to be a right issue here it we know they have asked for a convertible issue. that may not be the way to go. it is a sensible size equity issue underwritten by the big banks. i would see that get in the way -- i would see that getting away. gate, i been saying the most bullish analyst, based on the price target you are. -- ier this week, paul: we've got their rights issue. thingsa whole host of they need to be worked through. we got the closure of those copper mines. that is a lot for any management team to be doing with. i think it is a positive stock.

the balance sheet and just as some the core risk that people have. let's get through that. insufficient, we can revisit the question afterward. never mind copper, what is the story there? china,he big question is the world's biggest consumer and producer of it. you've got a seaborne market that is relatively small compared to the size of chinese. what gives rise to the volatility. overlay that, you have the question about carbon and global energy mix. maximum uncertainty around the value proposition of earning any thermal -- glencore being a traitor of the material. those concerns are overdone.

thermal core is still the world's largest source of thermal energy. role in a continuing the energy mix. if you look at where the industry is, it never generated lower even the margins. . there has to be a recovery. when it take place, glencore will rise. jonathan: john meyer, this is the worst performing stock on the ftse 100. something that everyone watching this program already knows. it is his baby. when do we start taking about the prospect of his man leaving? john: falling commodity prices. their start a business, they are sensitive to that. having bought their starter

business, they are sensitive to that. berg ishite glaze and so keen to address that issue. we can see what the market is doing to us. there is potential for danger. let's start this out to he is moving quickly. it's why we don't know the full terms of the equity issue. he said monday we are going to go for it -- monday we are going for it, but they haven't figured out how they are going to do this. he is a genius running a company. to take him out of glencore would not be a good thing. there is still lots of opportunity. they got called out. when you buy glencore, europe .uying a mining business you're buying a trending business that is done really well -- you are buying a trending business that has been doing really well. they got called up by the

chinese. i don't think is going to happen to them again. is oil marketing business brilliant. good potential there. the mining business is going to have a tough time for the next 12 months maybe. i think they are going to turn this ship around. jonathan: if you're a stock picker and you one exposure, white by going core echo in buying glencore what am i you,g? i want to ask theoretically, if they can't get their rights issue away, what scenario are we painting here? john: if you can get a rights issue away, there are questions that need to be asked broadly in the mining industry. let's take that. if you take the operational and financial leverage of glencore

into the falling copper price it glencore-- yes, has a greater degree of leverage. is there a glencore without glaze and berg? if -- iteft tenants -- is not as if they are absolved of what is going on. the question would be would replace him? what is glencore without him? the program that is then placed on him over the last few weeks seems out of proportion to the environment. it is it -- it is as if people had a over elevation.

it is an unreasonable expectation. jonathan: one of the few to say what knows is going on in china anyway. i would rather have the honesty of that kind of position than what we have seen from andrew mckenzie. he forecast at all. he saw $45. that is nonsensical. much better to be honest about the situation. at least you can try to understand what is going on. as far as i can see, glencore is trying to do exactly that. he said things are not good and he is trying to make good for what is happening in the world. when paul gait looks, what does he capitulate? paul: when someone can prove to me that you can generate copper. point out howan

-- what i at chilean see is pebble, resolution. get those away at $5,000 a ton. if someone can generate that kind of return, then i will lower my price target. meyer, paul gait. glencore most bullish analyst in the city, because he is. john: i do expect people to make money off a glencore from here. the new issue that price is going to be. that is going to price that's that is going to mark -- that is going to mark the autumn of the market. the risk is on the upside with commodities from here. in talking to traders and your, they are not necessarily bullish

on the commodities market. they are buying back in. although this price level is , i thinkor glencore the marketing business is going to get better. that will be nice. i think we have seen the worst of it. if i look forward three months, six months, i think you should be fine. jonathan: gentlemen, brilliant discussion. we will get you both back. coming up, could barcelona split from spain tackle that question again. we're live in spain after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning. happy friday. welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's check in on the markets. 45 minutes into the session. equity markets pulling back. stoxx 600 three days of gains. down by .5%. such of the board. some of the other asset classes. , $1.13.

lower -- the big headline is goldman sachs making waves with their call. the top line is low for longer. they slashed their forecast. potentialn there, the for $20 crude. right now $45 a barrel. let's talk politics. today marks the national day of the start of a high-stakes battle. .atalonia goes to the polls they account for 1/5 of spain's economy. capital how likely is independence will be the outcome? charles: i think we have to say it is unlikely. the market don't seem to be pricing and very much

possibility of this happening. there has been more nervous -- more nervousness in the markets. we have opinion polls wanting to widespread support for the pro-independence platforms and catalonia. the spanish government is implacable in saying this cannot happen. there are practical obstacles on the way to catalonian independents. jonathan: last year, we had a massive discussion about what independents would mean for scotland. we painted all kind of economic scenarios. if catalonia gained independence, how do we expect the region's economy to fair? charles: they are a large economy. it is one of the engines of spanish edp. a region with a large population.

catalonia has the structure to go at it alone as an independent state. it boils down to whether this can actually happen. whether it's within the bounds of possibility that they could become an independent state. , if theycameron said want to become independent, it would have to join the queue. it would have to join the queue to become a member of the eu. that is one of the serious obstacles. jonathan: mr. cameron with his own experience. charles, thank you for joining us. a vote closer to home. ,fter months of campaigning labour party announces its new leader tomorrow.

jeremy: --e to win, we have seen the polls. wish in the polls wrong in the past. would be wrong to say this is a done deal? >> i think people are talking about this is a done deal. this is a complete outsider. one to 12.been cut even the prime minister is talking about it as a done deal. the development of the labour party and these financial stability of the british family. he believes jeremy corbin will be the next labour party leader. jonathan: let's say he wakes up the leader, what are the immediate consequences for him? svenja: his problem will lie

within the party. no support among mps. several senior figures say they are not good to work with him. they will refrain from taking any shadow cabinet positions. there will be rebellion. a number of people have not only called his policies hard left, but they say he could set labor backed by a generation. you for standing out there and joining us. up next, another busy week for financial markets. we will wrap it all up. it is all about stocks. and the central banks. join us in two. happy friday. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome back to the show. i am jonathan ferro live from the city of london. it has been a very busy week in the markets. let's kick it off in japan. a week of wild swings. to 25nesday, the nikkei surged. the biggest gain since 2008. the biggest move in terms of points since 1994. in the fx market, the reserve bank of new zealand cut rates.

the central bank governors says for furtherential easing. the kiwi plunged on the back of that move. the worst performing sector on the stoxx 600, you will find the worst performing stock on the ftse 100. after announcing plans to sell shares, glencore got a big boost this week. on monday, the stock jumped the most since january 2013. that is a most it for the first hour of trading your on bloomberg tv. 54 minutes into the trading session. equity markets coming off their lows. manus cranny of the polls, coming up -- manus cranny of the pulse coming up. manus: we are going to get in whether or not valuation is going to offer an opportunity. this chance of global recession. talking about emerging markets. story of credit

suisse saying violations offer an opportunity. they are taking off their short positions on the s&p. we've gone for a couple of interesting things. we've got the financial ministers meeting this weekend. we have a bit of a russian flavor to the show. we got the first deputy of ceo -- we got the rossa tom rested deputy ceo. this is a company that is at the forefront. impact with the lifting of sanctions have on the lithuanian finance minister. and i know you love football. with behind the scenes bayern munich. which club are u.n.? d believe that markets can

sustain a rate hike from the united states? what it caused damage as is suggested? jonathan: looking forward to it. the big discussion is the oil markets, $20. manus cranny and francine lacqua coming up in the pulse. we talk about a good market as well. join you on monday. at my voice will have returned. join me on twitter. best of luck for the rest of your day. have a brilliant weekend. ♪

francine: the imf deputy managing director says the fed can stay lower for longer. >> we see various room for the fed to hold everything for a while. manus: go on. , china's currency, is set for its past week since march. francine: oil under pressure. couldn sachs says crude drop to his lowest $20 -- to as low as $20.