tv The Pulse Bloomberg September 11, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT
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francine: the imf deputy managing director says the fed can stay lower for longer. >> we see various room for the fed to hold everything for a while. manus: go on. , china's currency, is set for its past week since march. francine: oil under pressure. couldn sachs says crude drop to his lowest $20 -- to as low as $20.
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welcome to "the pulse." manus: let's get some breaking news we have on the oil report. is topply is outside opec fall the most since 1992. so, this is quite a severe warning shot from the iea. they going to say supply will fall by 10% overall. in august, -- opec, barrels.ll 220,00 ba0 looking: we have been at what vladimir putin would have to gain by lowering oil production. he is not part of opec. forecasting that supply outside opec will fall the most since 19 oil glutday see the after reaching a 17 year high this year. that goes back to goldman sachs
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slashing their forecast, may we see $20 a barrel? i do not know if it is a positive but it does give a boost to certain countries. cheap oil mean to produce for less and that drives gdp. manus: it does, indeed. oilrig count drop in u.s. production has been dropping for five weeks. the longest streak in 11 years. a lot to chreew over in terms of where we are with the opec and non-opec supply. francine: china's central bank was seen taking the step of extending its currency support measures to the offshore market. manus: it is the latest in a series of extraordinary moves aimed at halting capital outflows and easy pressures on the yuan, following the largest evaluation in more than two decades. the imf has welcomed the move
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and is managing director spoke to stephen engle at the world economic forum. >> it is important because -- [indiscernible] i think it is a very careful step. the first step open to the central banker. because currency today, the central bank holds a lot of renminbi in hand. theuse then liquidity and reserves and all the other things. to open the market -- lets the renminbi go back. i think it is a very important step to move forward, which is very percussion or. st-- very precautionary. stephen: do any of these steps, the subsequent intervention to keep it where it is, the yuan, and now today's announcement, do any of these steps help the process move along for inclusion in the special drawing rights?
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>> i think we should pose it the other way around. china being such a big economy, such an open economy. very important for china and also important for the whole world. all of the steps, august 11 the offshorepen markets for central banks, although steps are on the way to a more flexible exchange rate. when china came to market -- much more open. exchange rate is much more market-based. irephen: from the perspective, is the new fixing mechanism in the right direction? what we saw was a managed further 1%, then boom, they kept it stable. aey will keep the yuan at
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stable level. that does not sound like the market is going to be helping determine the value. >> they put exchange rates and a market-based mechanism, which is a good move in the right direction. the central government intervenes and tries to stabilize exchange rates. for the medium to long-term, i think the central government is committed to further move the exchange rates into the more flexible market-based -- i think it is very important. stephen: what stillness to be move another step closer from the imf's perspective? >> from our point of view, it is the way to move exchange rates. i think it is very important to the market-based -- gradually. also, to make sure -- needen: does the renminbi
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to be fully floatable to be included? >> not necessarily. edging closerre to fed day, september 17. he said the time is not yet right for a hike. >> the fed -- we understand their position. we see the job market number is improving but still not very strong. inflation is very low. there is room for the fed to hold her decision for a while. manus: let's bring in the head of emerging markets as ubs. great to have you with us. huge amounts of things happening. got a claall from goldman sachs for potentially -- all eyes on china and its contagion. how do you read the situation? >> i think china has moved from -- pressing domestic levers to boost growth to engaging
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externally. i do not think is a one-off move. china does not want the renminbi aggressively. if the dollar begins to move, if the fed and the dollar begins to move, i think the renminbi will depreciate further. what is priced and is probably not enough. you will see greater than that in terms of depreciation. and that will mean much more pain for emerging markets. i think this is china looking to claim market share. so that situation gets worse. i am not sure this means we will -- send this inflation or impulse through the world in a way that means global recession. this is much more worrying for emerging markets the developed markets. francine: do you think we will get interest rate hike next week from the fed? bhanu: it is a different call what i think we will get and what i think they should do. i think the fed can wait. our view is that it is going to
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be a close call but they will go in september. i think they do not feel that there is enough trouble right now in the global economy, and the data in the data of developed world has been quite strong in europe and the u.s. the data has been ok. manus: i was lucky that what we have written on the terminal this morning. top emerging-market stories. with the 10 weeks of outflows from the equity size, so 1.7 billion has gone out of emerging-market funds. valuation on emerging-market equities at the moment stands at a 30% discount. does that offer them good value or are they still -- you could be more concerned that there is further to fall and emerging-market equities? two points.aise let's talk about the first one. outflows. emerging markets is a much bigger debt trade. we have seen some outflows in equities but we have not yet in debt.
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people are much more beared up in merging markets in their heads than they are on the books. people have emerging markets right. -- straight. people are long defensive sectors. it is only the energy, the mining, those are the bombed out sectors. it is more sector specific than country specific. even in brazil, stock is making new highs. so, brazil is a very -- in a bad situation in terms of its macro but there are sectors that are doing very well. there has not been final capitulation and emerging markets. the second points about valuation, yes, emerging markets are creating 30% cheaper relative to all equities. 11 times earnings. they are 30% cheaper. but look at the roe. the return on equity is way cheaper than that. the earnings potential is way cheaper than that. the point is this -- emerging markets have not derated in a
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vacuum. a, they have levered up. b, despite that, there roe has been week. francine: what you're talking about is a massive crescent as china is trying to figure out how it manages its economy. you are not looking at a global recession. this is something we are here in more and more. rice on slashing the pirc oil. a 50%aying that there is chance we see a global recession in the next couple years. bhanu: the starting point of very weak. the u.s. is growing at 2% as an average. the eurozone is looking slightly better but we are talking about one form par -- talking 1.5%. emerging markets are declining and given the fact they have contributed to 55% of growth in recent years, it means global growth does slow down. what is not happening -- and thankfully what is not happening is the mayhem in emerging
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markets is not causing banking stress and the developed world. they look at credit growth in the developed world, that is doing quite well. in the u.s. the credit impulses positive. even in emerging markets, the currency would is, the equity market weakness has not led to problems in the money markets and that is crucial. that money multiplied -- which is just about recovering and the developed world -- is not yet coming under threat. that is why we will think -- we think we are not looking at a global recession. manus: you talk about the equity markets not having capitulated. but you expect a widening and credit spreads? bhanu: i do. for the longest time, their income statements have been weak. now it has become a stock problem. i think emerging-market hard currency will be weak. francine: very quickly, your favorite play in the next three months. bhanu: emerging markets -- south africa, on the long side,
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mexico, poland, taiwan will do well. manus: this friday morning, the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged for a third month. it gages uncertainty from china slowdown and a possible rate rise from the federal reserve. the decision to hold its seven-day repurchase rate at 1.5% was forecast by 16 of the 18 economists surveyed by bloomberg. francine: the riran nuclear agreement has survived a key test. the senate will hold another vote next week to see if any folks want to change their minds. mitch mcconnell, that is what he said. goldmanhe goldman -- says the global oil glut is bigger than we thought. the bank is warning that a failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices
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near the level to clear the oversupply. at the same time, the iea has said that oil supply outside opec will fall the most since 1992. citigroupa fired currency trader says a comment that profited from front running -- front exchange rate orders. he's now managing director and global head at foreign exchange. the bank says the massive nations are unfounded. manus: voting closed in britain's labour leadership contest. is the favorite to become the next leader of the u.k. opposition. ed miliband stepped down following his defeat in the general election in may. bo has released the first picture showing robert de niro and michelle pfeiffer as
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bernie and ruth madoff. 150madoff was jailed to years in 2009, after pleading guilty to a massive ponzi scheme. connedl, madoff investors out of an estimated $65 billion. manus: huge numbers. nobody saw that coming. up next, how will iran's vote affect russia's stake in the country? the nuclear industry -- we will ask the first equity ceo of russia's state owned nuclear power producing. rostom. right here.ov francine: o ur twitter question of the day. is $20 oil, is that possible? that is what goldman sachs things? #thepulse.
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billions of dollars for the russian budget. well, we are joined by the first uppity ceo of the state-owned trom.ar power producer rosa thank you for joining us this morning on "the pulse." this could have an impact, the lifting of the iranian sanctions the amount of business for you and the amount of dollars slowing back -- flowing back to the project. what is the biggest opportunity for you with iran? kirill: even now when sanchez are still in power, we are working with iran in a civil nuclear part -- and helping iran to develop a civil nuclear program. never prohibited, never under any type of sessions. atmospherely the around this project was not so good. sometimes not so comfortable. but nevertheless, we continue
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the plan. it is now a very successful operation. we signed an agreement between russia and iran. the nuclear power plant from 1000 capacity to 1200 megawatts. we already signed the commercial contract. means we are working in a normal way, but we understand of sanctions run out, we will have more opportunity to develop our activities in iran. iran will have more opportunity to pay and develop nuclear energy. francine: if sanctions are lifted, it would transform the iran's economy fairly quickly. are you expecting it to be lifted and if they are, will it be all at once or will it take years? kirill: you know, it's construction of nuclear power plants is not just a source of energy. first of all, it is a very big
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impulse for social and economic developers of the country. it works in two ways. the department of nuclear -- to help the economy to grow -- the development of nuclear helps the economy to grow. as a point of view, the construction itself creates a very good impact to the economy because it creates jobs, it creates taxes, it creates revenue for local companies. that is why everything in combination gives very good results for each country, not only for iran. including the united kingdom. about one oftalk the most recent nuclear issues and that is japan. where the u.k. policy goes, that is a whole other debate. is that a seminal moment, an important for you in terms of building confident in nuclear? japan lost signs of once again the first unit has
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plans to launch is certainly very good for the nuclear market, because japan is very important from a nuclear point of view. a lot of companies are working through japan and russia is not excluded. to enrich uranium. we plan to continue to do it. but first of all, it is a very good psychological sign that even such a country like japan, even after such an accident like was in fukushima, nevertheless was to keep nuclear and to continue to be nuclear because it is very important from, first of all, from an economical point of view. ity have extreme highly -- is due to the fact a lot of nuclear power plants are now stopped. is psychological because people are concerned and we saw that debate in germany and the u.k. i want to talk about uranium prices. kirill: the volatility on all markets is a very typical story. what we see in oil and gas and uranium -- it is going down.
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but what is the best advantage for nuclear energy? if you see on gas plants and coal plants, their share of fuel in the final cost of electricity is externally high. from 60% to 70%. gas goes upce for twice, it reflects 60% plus to the final cost of electricity. in the cost of nuclear electricity, it is just 3%. mean even if you go twice upper twice done, it does not affect -- francine: you have not given me a price. where do see it going? we understand economics. kirill: we expect the price will toup, may be not only due the effective japan but due to the fact that a lot of countries want now to develop nuclear, not only countries that have nuclear energy but a lot of new companies -- new countries like vietnam, indonesia, north
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africa, middle east, south america, africa itself. it gives a very good opportunity for everybody in the nuclear business in the uranium business to have a good result. manus: thank you very much. the first deputy ceo at rosat om. after months of campaigning, the u.k. labour party will announce a new leader to market francine: the winner is expected to be jeremy corbyn. the vote was triggered by ed miliband's resignation. speaking yesterday, liz kindle criticized the party's recent direction. >> in the past five to eight years, we have failed to take on hard arguments. from public financing to welfare. and britain's role in the world. every day, we neglected to make the arguments --
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[inaudible] francine: our political correspondent joins us from westminster. winjeremy corbyn, is his seen as a done deal? >> absolutely. i mean, everyone, including some of his election rivals are talking about it as a done deal. david cameron spoke of developments in labour, potentially meaning that the financial security of families is at rikssk. that's implying that he thinks that corbyn is going to win. manus: what are the immediate consequences to the challenges here? his firsrt big challenge is going to be how to forecast the labour party. he may have support in the members. but the problem is that he has
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almost no support with mp's. labour could go into meltdown. willal figures i said they not play ball, they will not take part in any proposed shadow cabinet if they were approached. so, he has got a party management issue first and foremost. francine: what are corbyn's most controversial policies? svenja: well, the economy. is what has been most criticized. he wants to run peoples q.e. and to posterity, doubling-- the figures do not add up. he made controversial comments about recent intervention in syria, questioning the validity of drone strikes. as i said, his economic agenda is really the one that provokes the most criticism. manus: the interesting question is this -- the tories will rub
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their hands with glee with power, but it is not as straightforward. will not beig -- voting for corbyn. new labour would move the party to an electrical -- an electable party. these are votes that the tories will be king to capture. for the tories, it will mean trying to move to the center ground rather than pandering to the tory right. they have to try and win those votes that corbyn will have lost the labour party if he wins the leadership. francine: thank you very much. manus: up next on "the pulse," we go behind the scenes to bayern munich where we hear from the club chairman as well as -- alonzo.
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perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business. francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live in london. i'm francine lacqua. manus: i'm manus cranny. our top headlines. is yuan traded in hong kong set for its biggest weekly advance since march. hasr china's central bank been seeing taking the unusual step of extending its currency support measures to the offshore markets. it is the latest in a series of extraordinary moves aimed at stopping capital outflows and s depreciationn'
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pressure. following the largest evaluation of the chinese monetary -- currency and more than two decades. hascine: the bank of korea kept key interest rates unchanged as it gages uncertainties for the economy from china slowdown and a rate r ise by the federal reserve. the decision to hold the seven-day repurchase rate at 1.5% was forecast by 16 of 18 economists surveyed. manus: a fired citigroup traders as a colleague who has been promoted profited from front running for next change orders. perry simpson who started his -- trial earlier this week implicated michael -- a managing director and global head of short-term interest-rate foreign-exchange at the lender. the bank says the accusations are unfounded. francine: memorial events will be held today to mark the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. ceremonies will take place at the national september 11 memorial and museum in lower
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manhattan, new york, as well as in washington and pennsylvania. the attacks were the worst strikes on u.s. soil since pearl harbor in 1941. manus: ok, equity markets are just a little bit lower, trimming weekly gains. mark, all the glitters seems to have disappeared. mark: asian stocks as measured by the mcsi rising for the first week in 8. emerging-market stocks set for its biggest weekly advance since april. have a look at china shares traded in hong kong. otherwise known as a shares. shares actually felt a. they were up for most of the day after deutsche bank released the research note saying that these shares should be bought. it forecast a 33% rally in the gauge by the end of the year. h-shares on track and did log
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their biggest weekly gain since april. but the index in that red circle has fallen by 34%. arevaluations on h-shares cheaper than any other market in asia. this is a gauge we have not looked at before. how exciting is this for geeks like me? this gages global volatility classes,l asset equities, rates, currencies, and commodities. yes, it's rising today but it is set to drop for the first week in four. any number above zero is above the green line. any number below zero is below the green line. the index closed above zero on august 24 for the first time in two years. that was first and, because that indicates more stress. any figure below zero indicates less stress. that figure right there, by the
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way, on the 24th of the month was -- on september 4 was the highest since january 2012. yes, we are on track for the first weekly decline and volatility in four, but we are at elevated levels. i want to look at one industry group that stands out this week. basic resources, the worst-performing industry group last week, guess what? top of the pile this week. the forces of this index tied to china. glencore bouncing back from its worst week. it's set to post a double-digit percentage gain. the index has rebounded 8% percent since slumping to a six-year low on august 24. but it is still 30% below its high for 2015. from bottom to top of the pile. miners in europe. francine: speaking of most loved, let's look at the pound because it is seen strength -- not today 1.5429 on the back of
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weak july construction data. u.k. construction, it fall 1%. this points towards a weakening economy. already we have had revenue and including disappointing data on manufacturing, retail sales driver of theain economy grew the least since 2013 and august. number points possibly to a little bit more caution for the bank of england. yesterday, we had the minutes. for a moment they are saying, the china turmoil and oil prices are not derailing anything at all. now, finance ministers from across the e.u. meet in luxembourg today followed by a euro area meeting tomorrow. among the countries attending is lithuania which joined the euro on january 1 this year. yesterday, it cut its economic growth forecasts due to lost exports to russia which was the huania's largest
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partner. we are joined by the lithuanian finance minister. thank you for joining us. give a sense, first of all, you are the youngest member to dock the euro. how worried are you about the euro's strength? >> well, we are not disappointed, neither we are worried. of course, we could see for a long time that the eurozone, euro system requires some repair, some strengthening, some i would say more horizontal ties rather than vertical regulations. and we are participating already quite actively in all this. please recall that the issues of the banking union, quite a hot issue that is a hot will be discussed in luxembourg as well. the single resolution mechanism thenegotiated under
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lithuanian presidency in 2013. so we are newcomers but we are not new to the agenda. and i think we are going for quite fastly and steadily. francine: what worries you the most? yesterday, of course, he had to cut your economic forecast because of your exposure to russia. now we are seeing all of this market tomorrow. all the emerging markets compounded by what is happening in china. what worries you the most? >> well, of course, we are a small, open economy oriented towards exports to the euro zone mainly. so, any developments in the chinese markets, for example, the asian markets, could have only secondary effect on lithuanian economy. differently, in contrast to the development on the russian border, on the situation, geopolitical situation where russia is involved, we had a d rop in our turnover, the trade
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turnover with russia. and we assume that this has become a permanent problem, despite all the sanctions imposed with some terms, and they will be reviewed. but this is a persistent problem. but the positive news is that we already count all the -- from the decrease of exports to russia last half of 2014. and first half of 2015. so, that is why we expect that on other grounds, we will have steady growth more than 3% of gdp next year and in 2017. francine: minister, you must be relief that all of the euro groups are not hijacked by breaking news or worries on greece. how much talk will be on china? >> i think it will be talk on china, because when we meet, finance ministers meet on any
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occasion, any information euro 28 countries, we always discuss thoroughly all the developments. i think the chinese situation will be a concern that will be discussed. i expect quite thorough analysis from the european commission and the european central bank on the issue. francine: lithuania prove one of the other big worries is the humanitarian crisis with the refugees. lithuania approve this e.u. quota. is lithuania prepared to finance it? >> well, to be very frank, of course, the new challenge when planning the next year's budget. but i believe and i promise you and i promise the lithuanian society that we will go for this challenge. we will find the necessary financial resources. because i think there is much more important to have
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solidarity on that and for all european countries to be solidarity in solving this crisis. fromurse, -- i european situations, radical proposals, how to reshuffle the system of migration from countries and the european union. i think this is absolutely necessary for further control of the situation. francine: minister, thank you so much. the lithuanian finance minister. manus: let's talk football. bloomberg was given behind the scenes access to bayern munich. mark barton spoke exclusively to the club's. chairman you can see part of a special program this weekend. a sneak preview. you're getting all the good gigs. mark: i haeeaded to oppenheimer. francine: if you like sports.
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manus: which we do. mark: we did a lovely piece that will play out this weekend on "inside bayern munich." on the field they have 125 titles. this is a club that makes 500 million euros each year. they have got money. 22 years of consecutive profit. the second most valuable footballing brand behind? francine: they buy great players. mark: but they run a right budget, unlike many other -- francine: they are very german. mark: but it works because they have been very successful. where they lag their premier league peers in the u.k. is on broadcasting rights. i put it to him, a german
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footballing legend, how can you close the gap between bayern munich and the german football league and the english premier league when it comes to football rights? >> first of all, we have an incredibly big gap in paid tv england and paid tv in germany prefers of all, i believe we in germany, the league make big mistakes if we talk about 10, 12, 15 years ago hwerwhere the y tv market was established and built and developed in english. we were slow believing that the clock maybe in germany is going different than in england but it does not go different. so, that is a big, big problem. because england has so much of the incas clubs have so much money available in that market -- much of the english clubs
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have so much money available so it is not easy to develop. madrid,like real because they have big requests from england. so, it is very difficult to keep them. but we have to do better in germany because it cannot be happened that just the bundesliga is getting something like half a billion euros. if you compare that to the english market where, for instance, the number 20 of the premier league is getting likely the double of bayern munich. you can't imagine how long this could work, because especially in the market. i believe we are very creative, very good and sponsorship, very good in merchandise. mark: very good in commercial. you are number two. >> we are very good in this, so i believe the creativity is quite limited in comparison to
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the broadcasting money. so we have to do much better in germany and that is really an obligation for the german leak money.eague to cash in mark: is it working -- financial fair play in europe? >> it is very difficult to understand financial fair play, because when i see the activity been certain clubs who have penalized a year ago, it is difficult to understand. if financial fair play is different and how it works. the i'm missing is transparency, how it works, because i understand the rules, but i do not understand the rationality of the system. and that is not up to me. i received many telephone calls, what is happening in the market, because a year ago, some clubs had been penalized and they came back stronger than before. it's very difficult to
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understand and i believe it is up to uefa to make it more transparent and to make it more understandable for the clubs. mark: the german football munich, the bayern chairman. i also spoke to the spanish world cup winner, a midfielder. i will show that one next. tune in this weekend. 10:00 a.m. saturday and sunday. 10:30 pm. saturday and sunday. and the finals -- the big news. i've spun off business of sport into a new twitter account. stop banging the table, mark. i've spun off business and sport to a new business account. it is so special to me. i banned it. @markbarton tv still exist for the businessy, marketing, schmarkety stuff. sportbiztv. manus: shameless.
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francine: there you go. thanks so much, mark barton. i didn't think he will also have the james bond trailer on his twitter. -- i think he will also have the james bond trailer on his twitter. manus: this will be one of the most hotly watched results. tomorrow morning, all the news programs and the united kingdom are following this late yesterday evening. live specials where he was speaking last night, along with the unions. ineis the hard l left-winger, the favorite to become the next leader of the u.k. opposition. he's divided the party with his calls to end austerity, nationalize energy companies and go for the railways. tony blair has warned that labour faces annihilation if corbyn becomes leader. our next guest is a supporter of would argue and she
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that anti-austerity is mainstream economics. professor,conomics excuse me, at the university of sussex. marianna, welcome to the show. say this isay you becoming mainstream economics. we had a great debate. that is what the letter and "the guardian" said. s propositions even to a mild-mannered man such as myself seem rather out there. he is going to collect 120 billion pounds in terms of tax avoidance. i don't hthink anybody has achieved that level. how mainstream is corbynomics? we meant and the letter and what i think is that people like paul krugman around the world have been arguing that what we actually needed this moment, both in terms of the business cycle and this moment in modern-day capitalism is
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actually a government that is able to be countercyclical at a time when interest rates are so low. that kind of spending should be focused on investments and infrastructure and innovation. that is one of corbyn's points. he has been adamant against the tax gap. he, of course, is not so much necessarily endorsing nationalization of all of u.k. industry but very much thinking about what the problems have been with the over, if you want privatization -- i do not know if you take trains in this country. i do all the time and it is remarkable the lack of investments at the private sector which runs the trains have made in improving u.k. trains. francine: that is very true. when you look at national train carries in the rest of europe -- some of them are pretty poor. i am thinking of italy. let's move onto. the problem is that in the u.k. because we are so focused on capital markets, because there are so many foreign investors in
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this country, that if you were to powerand implement some of the things he said he would, people would freak out. a: first of all, one thing that the current policy that any minister or shadow minister or kennedy talks about, the other thing is how they are -- candidate talks about. think about vince cable in the shadow government. they have been talking constantly about the need for long-termism. direct investment in the public sector and not indirectly through tax cuts. this continues to be a myth. been proponents of different types of sort of kicks t starting -- manus: a lot of the public-private ventures, have they been that successful? a lot of the public-private -- a lot of, no, no.
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a lot of the propositions have turned out to be rather outlandish. which was the original labour proposition which was about investing. ynomics --e corb mariana: i think you're reading too much of the media, which has sensationalized. manus: that is what we do. so those are good policies? mariana: we need to be careful that the psi, that actually did not have a notion of what value was in that partnership. it actually ended up being a back door privatization. that is why he did not work. we need public-private partnerships. my area is innovation. i believe in the role of business. however, the myth is you can get business to invest by reducing its tax. -- public investments in areas that create opportunities and then you can invest. francine: do you know jeremy
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corbyn? it depends on once he becomes labour leader and if he becomes elected, whether he will be a or goesfakaisis or tsipras more in the middle? how interesting that in the u.k. in the us, this alternative policy happened within the mainstream party, the democratic party with bernie sanders and the labour party with corbyn. it did not have to resort to the five-star movement in italy. this increase the amount of voters for the labour party in the u.k. young people, and i know many of them -- manus: they are engaged. heiana: the problem is if gets elected how to transform that into something positive. i think that some people in the labour party, who has indirectly said i will work with his men, versus others who say don't vote
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for him because all hell will broke loose. eanus: it will shake up th market's perception? -- a possibility for shadow chancellor? been verye's cautious about the whole agenda. the labour party should not be saying we will also cut but cut less. that is not interesting. you have to provide a different narrative. he tries to do that. i think there are different aspects of all the candidates. things they have been saying that are useful for whoever gets in in order to build an alternative platform. the current crisis of the labour party is what happened after they lost the election. people like blair and other
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saying they lost because we do not embrace the wealth creators. what they meant was business. what we need from the labour party is a new theory of wealth creation. civic society and different types of public sector institutions. and we have to think about how to build those as opposed to having these myths about public private partnerships where it is heading up one part, the private sector and having no vision for the public sector. economics.myths and thank you so much. francine: the rugby world cup kicks off in britain next week. their fans are en route as well. but recent currency moves and a strong pound can mean they will feel it. do we expect to see more sober rugby fans this tournament? >> they might well be. it turns out that if they are going to cost 5 pounds at the
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stadium, for south africans that will be 100 rand. south africans could get three or four pints in johannesburg. it will make them balk a little bit. francine: does it look like it will impact turnout at all? whoor many of the people are going to be traveling to the u.k., it is a sunk cost. they've bought the tickets, booked their flights a year ago or more. so, they are pretty much still coming along. the kiwis have said that they would go no matter what. maybe they would swim there. coming.fans are still manus: and in terms of the pain for south africans, it is certainly going to be much more for your brothers and sisters then, indeed, it is for perhaps some of the others. your currency under tremendous pressure. are people talking about it?
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>> absolutely. we are at 2-1 on t-- 21-1 on the rand. 50 pounds spenty r5 more than 1000 rand. a kiwi dollar is still going to buy you more than a rand. the south africans -- some of the guys have said yes, but they will cut back on merchandise and clothing. they will not be buying the sorts of things. but they'll still treat themselves. one is determined to take the heathrow express into london rather than the tube, which is probably a good idea. manus: ok. let's just see what they all buy and how much they drink when they get here. francine: in a week, maybe the pound can do a down -- can go down. here on bloomberg's other top headlines. the iran nuclear deal has survived blocked the deal.
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another vote will happen next if anyone will change their minds. mitch mcconnell was saying that. the slowsney says down and china has not affected his plans for a new theme park in shanghai. enthusiasm for the projects remain high, despite recent turmoil. disney is considering another theme park in china and sees continued growth at its operation in hong kong. francine: hbo has released the first picture showing robert de niro and michelle pfeiffer as bernie and ruth madoff. mr. madoff was jailed for 150 years after pleading guilty to a massive ponzi scheme that duped john tucker pitch, kevin bacon and steven spielberg -- and john malkovich. he conned investors out of $55 billion. manus: for those listening on bloomberg radio, the first word
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guy: liftoff limbo. the imf deputy details that there is room for the fed to stable over longer. falling, the markets but we are not as strong. we see there is room to hold. yuan is sete for more central bank support. guy: oil under pressure. goldman sachs slashes forecast saying that crude could drop to as low as $20 per barrel.
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good morning. , i manus cranny. pulse,": this is "the live from london. manus: the yuan traded in hong kong, set for its biggest weekly advance since march after china's central bank was seen taking an unusual step of extending the currency support measures to the offshore markets. it is the latest in a series of moves aimed at halting capital outflows and easing pressure in more than two decades. earlier the deputy managing director of the ims hope to bloomberg's stephen engle in china. because whenrtant hoping forward, you are -- this is a very careful step
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up into the central bank. [indiscernible] stephen: do any of the steps we have had since the devaluation, the market, the subsequent intervention to keep it where it is, and now today's announcement -- do any of these the steps help the process move along for the review? >> i think it is the other way around. china being such a big and open economy, makes changes on a much more flexible base. it is important for china and for the whole world. marketssteps, moving to
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and opening on short markets [indiscernible] stephen: from the imf's perspective, is the new fixing mechanism a move in the right direction? what we saw was a 2% instant evaluation, unmanaged further 1%, then they kept it stable. they said they will keep the yuan at a stable level. that doesn't sound as if the market will be helping determine the value. market xchange mak --[indiscernible]
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into the more flexible market bases. stephen: what still needs to be picked off to move another step closer, from the imf's perspective? >> from an operational point of a way to move the exchange rates -- i think it is very important to the market gradually, and to make sure the percentage is also market-based. stephen: does it need to be fully floatable to be included? >> not necessarily. manus: we are edging closer to the fed date, september 17. he waited on that saying that the time is not yet right for a rate hike. ande listen carefully [indiscernible]
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we see the job market numbers improving. we see that [indiscernible] guest saysur next that pessimism around china is excessive. armstrong helps manage over $1 billion in assets. great to have to. -- to have you. if you are pessimistic, at least you get scolded less if markets fall. patrick: if you so what happened in japan on tuesday, you put on -- it is a risk to be pessimistic, especially when you have central-bank striving markets. the tone hasn't changed from asian to european central banks. it can be heard to be pessimistic. manus: your best case scenario as we go into this? patrick: well, it is going to be
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what happens from the fed. i think the tone from all the remarks will be incredibly dovish regardless of the outcome. i think they have mismanaged things coming into the vote because there is so much uncertainty about what will happen. 40% are saying a headache and 60% are saying nothing -- the wanted to have guidance where everyone knew it was going to happen. world events have created a lot of uncertainty. francine: why are you less pessimistic than the rest of the world? are you thinking there won't be a global recession? patrick: china is willing. i don't think it is a hard landing. if you look at hard data, numbers can be shocking, but if you look at the number of barrels of oil, it hasn't changed much. oil is down 40% from last year. if you measure everything in
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they will be very strong and commodities will be week. the imports will be lower in dollar terms because everything is half-price. --us: one of our headlines can oil make $20? oil, a, could you make to $20? more importantly, does that hold commodity complex plan to how you invest? patrick: there won't drop to $20 a barrel but what will is storage issues. oil keeps being produced and the demand doesn't increase which pushes away below the cost of production. gettingl really create barrels into the market, a very sharp drawdown. futures won't be impacted. but $20 is a bold call. a surpriseweakness,
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gloss continuing, you can see strong weakness. --ncine: you are not against but itld see $20 oil is not a given. what does it mean for deflation? there is a serious concern that we can go into a death spiral. patrick: i think the deflationary forces are greater than inflationary forces. no one has ever been able to generate inflation right now and a few weeks ago i was thinking the fed would have an acute raise. so i think they don't raise, and they are very well aware that deflationary forces are real. china show the world what can happen on currency. that is a real risk. manus: you like large technology -- the great thing about it as we can update it. he took on shop positions on the u.s. -- you like large tech.
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not old tech. patrick: yeah. are trading in the bottom of the market, much faster. they have very strong profit margins, defendable profit margins. if you can pick up dominant brands that market multiples, i think that is a great trade. we aren't sure if the u.s. market is against it anymore, but i think that is where there is value and growth. francine: what about japan? patrick: japan, we don't have much of a position there. we think the ecb will have more dry powder in terms of monetary policy. one thing that came to me on japan -- the specter of more easing -- just yesterday they were calling for more easing. they are more likely -- are they more likely to pull the trigger on the ecb?
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patrick: i think the ecb will use words rather than new measures. i think it will be very important that the ecb very quickly comes out, and if japan -- if that the virgins doesn't happen you need strong words from mario draghi, whatever it takes, those types of things, that the ecb's and ready to loosen policy further if the fatty doesn't raise. francine: patrick, thank you so much. patrick armstrong. manus: here is a look at what else is on our radar this friday morning. the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged for third month, as engages the uncertainties for its economy from the china slowdown. a possible rate rise from the federal reserve. the decision to hold the seven day raise at a record 1.5% was forecast.
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17 of 18 economists surveyed agreed. iran nuclear deal has survived to key test despite a republican effort to block the deal. the senate will hold another vote next week, according to a majority leader. manus: a currency trader says a colleague who has since been promoted profited from running foreign-exchange orders. dismissal trial earlier this weekend indicated a now managing director of global head short-term interest rates. the bank says the accusations are totally unfounded. francine: hbo has released a new picture with robert de niro and michelle pfeiffer. chairman of the nasdaq stock exchange was jailed in 2009 after pleading guilty to a massive ponzi scheme. he conned investors
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francine: welcome to "the pulse," live from london. manus: after months of campaigning, the labour party will announce its new leader. the new leaders expected to be jeremy corbyn, the anti-austerity carrier, a 200 to one outsider. francine: the vote was triggered by ed miliband's resignation. svenja joins us now -- is it a done deal? venja: pretty much. even the prime minister is set to speak shortly, talking about the consequences for britain of assuming that corbyn will win the leadership election. corbyn's rivals in the selection have also said, look, this is
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probably going to happen, this may set the labour party back. people are already talking about the consequences, which effectively assumes that corbyn will be the next leader. corbyn'senja, what are biggest challenges and risks in terms of forming a shadow cabinet, if he does win the mandate? the biggest risk, really is within the labour party itself. while he has a lot of support from labor activists and party members, the vast majority of mps are against his leadership bid. number of that a senior figures have already said they will not wish to be included with the shadow cabinet, and there is also the risk that people will campaign against him if he is elected as leader. corbyn's most are controversial policies? svenja: where does one start?
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this is a hard less candidate. he has made some controversial statements about the legality of britain's recent drone attracts in syria. but his economic policies are the ones that stand out. the numbers haven't really added up. whichusterity candidate, means he would put an end to all austerity. he talked about setting a maximum cap on salaries, talked about doubling the nhs budget, introducing -- most of these policies have been criticized by people within the labour party itself. manus: svenja, thank you. francine: we are given behind the scenes access -- stay with us. ♪
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manus: welcome back. this is "the pulse," streaming on your ipad and bloomberg.com. let's change gears and talk football. bloomberg has been given behind cess tones askec bayern munich. you can see part of the special programming this weekend, but in the meantime, we got a preview. tell us -- where have you been, what have you done? mark: i went to munich.
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i was on and off the pitch. they have won 25 national titles and five european cups. we know the name of the pitch, the most valuable brand in the world, the fourth richest club in the world when it comes to revenues, the third biggest in the world. 22 years of consecutive profit -- that is unheard of for a football club. where the german football league tends to lag is an television broadcasting rights, so i sat down with a footballing legend. he is the chairman of buyer munich and i said -- can germany ever close the gap when it comes to broadcasting rights? all, we have an incredibly big gap between pay-tv england and pay-tv germany. i believe we in germany made big
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mistakes if we talk about 10, 12, 15 years ago where pay-tv was established, build it and developed in england. we were very slow believing that the clock was going differently. , andis a big problem because england have so much of a huge club of money. it is not easy to defend that we keep our players in bayern munich. madrid players from because there were big requests from england. it is very difficult to keep them, but we have to do better in germany because it can't happen that just the first league is getting something like
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half a billion euro. if you compare that to the english market where for instance the number 20 of the premier league is getting likely the double of bayern munich, you can imagine how long these could in the transfer market -- we have a very good team, sponsorship is very good, very good in merchandise. mark: good in commercial. >> we are very good. but i believe the creativity is quite limited in comparison. so we have to do much better in germany and that is really an obligation for the german league, to cash in money. mark: financial fair play in europe or not? >> to tell you the truth, it is difficult to understand, financials that play. when i see the transfer activity
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from certain clubs who have been penalized year ago, it is very difficult to understand if financial fair play is different and how it works. missing is how it works because i understand the rules, but i don't understand the rationality of the whole system. it is not up to me. i have received many telephone calls -- what has happened in the market, because the year ago some clubs were penalized and now they came back stronger than before. it is difficult to understand and i believe it is up -- to make it more transparent and understandable for the clubs. mark: we will try and play out that chattel little later. don't miss the special this weekend -- 10:00 a.m. saturday. 10:30 p.m. sunday. it is a great show, "inside
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bayern munich." @sportbiztv. francine: breaking news -- currency news. the euro is rising versus the frank for the first time since early january. the euro has been rising quite significantly over time but this is a psychological level. manus: it is psychological and it's good news for the first national bank. francine: they have had a tough time. they thought it was too expensive. manus: that was way back at the start of the year. the swiss franc strengthened by 20% in one fell swoop at the start of the year, and the whole accusation has been -- how much do they get involved? it is not the quarter of a percent to move, it is not the
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size of the move, it is the psychological level. that is the critical point. francine: if you are mario draghi looking at this, the euro is going higher, many people are expecting more and more the chief investment officer just 20 minutes ago was saying -- he is buying into the european story because he thinks mario draghi will have to do something to get the euro back down. he doesn't know if it is actually kiwi or whether he will talk it down what he has in the past, but this is going to start being a real problem for one of the exporters. the spanish of already talked about it. manus: if we look at the rise of the euro against a basket of currencies -- that is what we do at bloomberg -- the euro is up by 4%. only the yen is beating in the past three months. the ecb willid,
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse," live from london. manus: let's get you up to speed on the top headlines. the yuan traded in hong kong set for its biggest weekly advance since march despite giving up some ground this morning. the week's game came as they were taking the unusual step of maintaining currency support measures to the offshore market. it is the latest in a series of extraordinary moves aimed at stopping capital outflows and countering you want appreciation. francine: the bank of korea has
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interest rate unchanged as he gages uncertainty from the china slowdown and a possible rate rise by the federal reserve. the decision to hold the repurchase rate at a record low 1.5% was forecast by 16 of 18 economists surveyed by bloomberg. from: a man profited exchange orders -- he is on trial and he indicated and now managing director and the global head of short-term interest rate foreign-exchange. the bank says the accusations are unfounded. francine: memorial events will be held today to mark the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. atemonies will take place the september 11 memorial and museum in lower manhattan as well as in washington and pennsylvania. the attacks were the worst
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strikes on u.s. soil since pearl harbor. manus: let's check in on the markets now with mark barton. we were just talking about this move on the euro-swiss. what is big for you? mark: stocks are falling -- they fell in asia -- but in asia, they rose for the first week in eight. seeneek as a whole has gain right across the globe. the week started with the pboc governor saying that the rout inequities is close to ending. the chinese authorities book ended the week by saying that authorities have sufficient tools to prop up the chinese a economy. the shanghai composite rose for the first week in four. the attention turns to the federal reserve policy meeting next week. this is what's happening today, the -- european stocks are falling. the stock i'm keeping my eye on
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is the basic resources index. miners were the worst-performing industry on the stocks 600. miners have rally this week and none more than glencore. a week ago it had its worst ever, but this track at his on track for its biggest weekly advance. earlier that it is scrapping dividends and raising money in order to cut a $30 billion debt. it has rebounded since slumping to a six-year low on august 24. it is mirroring fortunes in the chinese economy, but it is still below is high for the year. that's by about 30%. sterling today is down, but over the weekend suffered its best week since june.
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the bank of england throwing the cat among the pigeons yesterday. in minutes released accompanying its bank of england rate decision, it's at the chinese slowdown hasn't shaken its conviction, and that we are getting closer to a hike in u.k. interest rates. sterling is at 1.7%, the biggest gain since june. the bank of england throwing the cat among the pigeonsthis is thn focusing on -- i want to show you the swiss franc against the euro. the big move, when they cat was scrapped, was on january 15. the euro fell and the swiss franc rose. ever since the euro has been creeping higher against the franc. -- backt a high to you. francine: in 25 minutes, we are joined from new york. i know we are looking at oil intensively and we will have will kennedy here in a second, but gold is nothing. isl: what i would point out the oil at $20 a barrel -- i
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would know that they brought down, as others have, their 2016 and 2017 view on where the intermediate will be. we will touch on that as we look at the political economics, or the economic politics, of china. we will be joined from harvard university. f, will have can strokgof ourselves whendo we are joined from the international monetary fund at cornell university, truly one of america's experts on china. between them, a lot to talk about on a friday. manus: thank you very much. we will be tuned into that. tom keene, you don't want to miss that show. let's get a little bit more now on the goldman sachs news,
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cutting their price forecast on crude oil. it could touch $20 a barrel. we have will kennedy. $20. the whole world goes into paranoid overload. how concerned are we? what do you make of these cuts and the proposition? will: the $20 thing is obviously an outlier. but there is a real danger here. we are still seeing oversupply in the global market by 2 million barrels a day. all that oil has to go somewhere. what goldman is saying is what happens when it tanks? where will he go? you you get that situation, could suddenly see a crash in the price. francine: this is something we wrote about, going to even $10. commentators seem to be aligning the fall. we are staring into the unknown. will: it is an interesting moment.
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few people look at the next months, they see very little to be positive about. next to the situation changing a bit -- in the last couple days we saw people talk about how much oil could come out of the market. u.s. deductions could fall, 500,000 barrels per day. today they say opec supply may fall the most in 23 years. manus: they are saying that you opec the opec outside most since 1992. nd and that hasi been going down continuously, but then there are times when you get a pop back and every operates. the overall conclusion in terms of supply -- what does it take to really shake out the u.s. markets? will: in the u.s. -- manus: they are said to export. will: in the u.s., the thing
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about shale is that it is coming off quickly, but it is clear that when oil gives bad, you turn it back on. there is another issue -- the conventional stuff. when you are seeing there is a big oil companies slashing spending. what they are trying to say is next year that will start to bite. people are canceling projects. if they: so that means continue cutting we can look at $120. unlikely. will: that's three or four years off, but yes. but a price crash is a price crash. that is going to take barrels out of the market, and who knows? thank you very much. will kennedy. up next, coming to
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we are seeing some currency moves, the strongest since 2008. they could mean that they feel the pinch. let's get to johannesburg. travel, preparing to but it will be an expensive trip. they will be able to afford the beer. >> it's going to be horrifically expensive. it will be the equivalent of about 12 kiwi dollars. three times more than we pay here in johannesburg. francine: renee, does this look like it will impact turnout at all? renee: the fans would have bought their tickets maybe a year ago or more, so for them, thankfully, it is a cost sunk. those who didn't hedge against it beforehand are going to have a hard time. talk in theis the
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office, with your friends? are people worried about the cost of the trip in terms of coming out? and taking it to a broader context overall, the rand is under pressure. it's not just that pressure we will suffer, is it? renee: no, not at all. yes, people are particularly worried about the cost. i'm coming into the u.k. next week, and every 50 pounds i spent will be 1000 rand. you try to do some things cheaply. francine: renee, it's tough. this is a problem when currencies go up. looking forward to having you here in london, live from johannesburg. manus: the iran nuclear agreement has survived a key test of the u.s. senate as democrats blocked a republican effort to stop the deal. the senate will hold another
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vote next week to see if any folks want to change their mind. the majority leader mitch mcconnell says. francine: the slowdown in china has not affected plans for its new theme party in shanghai. project spirite remains high despite recent turmoil. they are considering another theme park in china. manus: hbo has released a picture with robert de niro and michelle eifert and mr. and mrs. madoff. mr. madoff was jailed for 150 years after pleading guilty to a massive ponzi scheme. total, he conned investments out of an estimated $65 billion. it still blows my mind every time i say that. francine: let's check in on the
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markets. we have news for the first time 110. had let's get that graphic -- this is something that happened gradually. it was abandoned on january 15, but look at -- this is psychological and it may have huge implications. manus: it is going to be a bit of a reprieve for the swiss, because the swiss is declining now against the yen, against the dollar, against the euro. the question is -- is this sustainable above the 110 level? we will discuss that with one of our next guest, ken waters. he will join us after this very short break. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse," life on bloomberg tv. soaring towers are a staple of most city skylines, but his big always best? an acclaimed british designer doesn't think so, and argues for the return of a more human scale. we spoke to the man behind google's new hq during his recent visit to hong kong. >> my passion is not really for
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buildings, it is what they facilitate. the human scale is something that has been neglected, i think, in many buildings, and i think we all feel that. many developments got bigger and bigger, particularly in asia. the new buildings are never small. big feels heroic and special. randa isn't a country -- g pumps you up, but humans are still roughly the same size we were thousands of years ago. before we begin designing university buildings, i tried to break down that one 18-year-old student among 30,000. how do you allow them to have space that is still their own,
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and facilitate them so that they can change the world themselves? this new british inventor thing -- that word inventor was something that, when i was little, people didn't want to use. you always had "mad" at the beginning of "inventor." they consigned it to eccentricity, rather than problem-solving. personally, i am not interested in what i am called. i'm interested in the verb. when me and my team worked through designs, we don't architect the building, we designer. -- design it. manus: let's get more with mark barton and the man behind the piece. this was your bayern munich exclusive -- give us the lowdown. the chairman of buyer munich.
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we spoke to him about tv broadcasting rights. he also gave us access to a spanish world cup winner, who won the european championships twice. 10 championship league twice in spain and in germany. this guy is big. he is big on the pitch and off the pitch. we sat down for an exclusive video with him and we talked money. we talked economy. i said -- do you really keep an eye on all your investments? to take control of my finances, to have a business plan. you have a great amount of money, but you need to try to be smart enough to be able to not to drop it off. a chance for the future. mark: can you give us an idea? >> i try to diversify on real
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estate, in stocks. have a nice portfolio, not to be orped with this china crisis the financial crisis. i want a diversified portfolio. mark: do you follow global financial markets? >> i do, i do. i have some investment in those areas. you need to keep an eye on the assets. i need more focus. mark: the spanish economy has rebounded. are you surprised? a strong economy in europe right now. >> 3.3%, that is great. the crisis hit spain really hard. the measures that had to be taken were really tough. but the macro numbers are looking really good for spain.
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is stilleople -- it high, the unemployment rate is high. people. easy for those they will notice, hopefully not just spain and europe will get better. how many footballers talk about a diversified portfolio? how many footballers know how much -- francine: we've had quite a few on the show. mark: he knows the spanish economy is growing at 3%. very switched on footballer. francine: one is now an asset manager. there you go. mark: they are doing that, aren't they? setting up agencies. since i came back from munich, he has been in the news because of this help for european refugees.
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what they are going to do is all the players are going to walk on the pitch with a young refugee child. they are also setting up a training camp for refugees coming into germany. they will donate a million euros and the plan is to provide food, german lessons, and football equipment for children. they are a social club. this came up when i spoke to him. yes, you want to get into places like china, but what good are you going to do in china? he said that is what differentiates us. we don't just want to make money, we want to help grassroots. we want to help football on the ground. we are behind manchester united, the manchester city, but we want to help the grassroots. you do get a real sense from bayern munich that they are a social club. it is the money they are giving to these refugees. munich is an astonishing arena
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with all these refugee children and the football supporters. do watch this special this weekend. 10:00 a.m., 10:30 in the evening. promise, my new @sportbiztv. francine: we have had a few currency moves. the euro swiss roll ose above 110, the first time since it abandon the swiss franc. what's interesting is that looking at the analysts, they say the next move would be to 1140. this would be on technicals. it gives a headache to mario draghi and the european central bank. a lot of people are already expecting him to do more qe, or at least to talk up qe, because euro has been so high. this may be the final images he needed. manus: we measure the euro
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trade, the euro strength against the basket of currency. this is relative to the japanese yen -- the second strongest currency over the past three months. he stood ready to do more -- let's take a look at european equities. a little bit of ground as we go to the midday point. francine: this is a concern over the impending federal interest rates, but there are couple things we should mention. one would be scrapping the merger, with that issue from the european union. that is pushing stocks down. this is never a good thing, when they get in the way of a merger. manus: if you look at the overall basic resources, up. auto is up 3%. we leave you with a look at the u.s. market. you will get producer price indexes. the question is, of course, where will u.s. equity trade throughout the day?
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there is uncertainty six days from the fed meeting. we consider one and done. and it is the 14th year of remembrance of september 11, 2000 one. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom. joining me, david westin this morning. it is a great day in new york, 14th year of ceremonies and moments of silence. ago with 14 years charlie gibson on that moment. david: thanks for having me. all of us were thinking about where we were 14 years ago. i was watching as the traffic copter went into the first building, then watching as the plane -- as the traffic copter filmed the first plane going in, and then the second. tom: it just was extraordinary. we will have coverage all day on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio.
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