continue to climb. all of the recent volatility is the result of falling the turgor -- pulling the trigger three times. good day, from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. it is friday, let's get you a look at stocks. they turned positive at midday. they need our highs about an hour ago. we had given up some gains as we go into the last couple of hours of trading. perhaps no one wants to be too long before the fomc announcement brady look at the week, a mixed performance overall. , it is a little bit off

could look at that once again. the nasdaq is higher by the most here on the three major in the this. that would be the case for the year-to-date timeframe as well. that includes the previous friday, because it is not the holiday shortened week. the big mover sorry commodities. wti lost as much as 3%. cutting its oil price forecast. come inside the bloomberg terminal for a moment to take a look at currencies. this is a weekly scorecard for affect. the rv and some other commodity currencies have gained strength this week. riau -- brazilian riau started stronger. off by 1.3%. been anis has interesting week not only inequities within currencies as

well. let's take a look at the top stories that we are following it is our ceremonies across this nation marching the noun -- marking the tragic events that happened 14 years ago, the 9/11 attacks. the president and mrs. obama observed a moment of silence at 8:46 a.m. local time when the first of two hijacked planes slammed into the north tower of the world trade center here in new york. near ground zero in lower manhattan, victims families read the names of those killed when the towers collapsed. remembrances are also taking place at the pentagon and the flight 93 national rosario -- memorial in western pennsylvania. they killed at least 3000 people. ginger ashton carter had a warning for terrorists. >> for 14 years, and forever more, terrorist to threaten us will learn the simple but inventing truth. takes, nohow it

matter where they hide it was not escape the long arm of justice. mark: on thursday florida man was arrested for landing an entire attack today -- planning a terrorist attack today. scarlet: hackers may change their strategies to disrupt financial markets new cyberattacks maisie to alter electronic data rather than just stealing it and the hospital canerday that hacking be expected by both criminals seeking profit and as a tool of war to destabilize the west. mark: consumer sentiment this month fell to the lowest level in a year. the latest reading from the university of michigan shows the biggest one-month decline in nearly three years. households turned gloomier about job and wage increase aspects . scarlet: inflation is not exactly a threat right now. wholesale prices are little changed last month.

core prices, which backs of food and energy costs rose 3/10 of a percent in august. they want to see inflation closer to the 2% target before raising interest rates. a harvard economics professor tells the bloomberg policymakers that they want to cover their visas. after you arek models have been so off for so long, your ship has been thrown around in a storm and you do not know where you are when you land, you want to see the inflation more than usual. meetet: ted policymakers next week and, with their announcement on wednesday. the short-term rates of the central bank controls have been a near zero since 2008. mark: at least 65 people are dead after a crane collapsed in the holy city of mecca. officials blame strong wind collapsed mecca is islam's holiest site. films around the world have been converging on the city for the

annual pilgrimage was takes place this month. scarlet: two is making some special arrangements ahead of the postings with next saturday. they have released more than 3500 inmates. no political prisoners are being free for those convicted of violent crimes like murder. people over 60 and after 20 years i was being free. the issues similar releases the four people visits in 2012 and 1998. coming up in the next half hour of the bloomberg today, the top economic minds round off on whether the fed will raise rates next week or not. a round of the one they have said. mark: should colleges or money to borrow for -- to build fancy iu --ootball statdu - stadiums? to take on hollywood and received the movie business. for: holiday perfect storm

the commodities market. slowing chinese economy. with the potential rate in is a roving demand for commodities sending energy and mental prices lower than taking down commodity currencies along the way. scarlet: joining us now is michael hague, a global research analyst. we want to start with oil. call.onth a bullish goldman sachs has gone one step further, seating $20. why is it difficult to get a consensus on oil? $20 not to forecast, i think it is more than $40 level. mark: that there is a wide range nonetheless. >> really is. people talk about commodities team very volatile. that is nothing in energy. we are talking 50%, 60% volatility that we are used to this is normal for commodities.

take that away, things the rest of the commodity complex -- i think you're reverting to a situation where oil is going to behave like the rest of the commodity complex. looks very weak in regard to supply. you're in for a volatile. timeframe. if you have volatility is hard to pinpoint it down. mark: you say we are in for a volatile time. what sort of volatility are we expecting? we are talking and telling our investors to basically be prepared on the oil side for a world of between 14, 15, and brent between 45 and 55 areas that sounds very range bound, but you will get the first of volatility within those ranges white we call those ranges, because they make a sensible sense from a cost perspective.

mark: this is the new normal. >> for the time being vonta leach we recalibrate and we reassess. at that point from you a low prices to go beyond where we are now. scarlet: katie looking to the second half of 2016? >> starting only this year, when we started to hear about opec pulling back on their cuts and looking at the u.s. share producers and sorrow prices drop, and recovered very quickly. that caught a lot of people by surprise. easiest one to get a handle on is sheltered is there such a high decline rates. the prices were we think they are going to go, the lack of engine going forward from those docs, and the fact that the role she's to know what they strong anymore. visibility andt

gets on the most expensive swing producer. aboutlet's talk consumers. they hear all of this information, what do they think, especially with winter home heating season coming up? to a timeentering where there is weakness in oil for macy's analogy standpoint. this probably is a good time to login if you see some tips. from an investor standpoint, if you see oil going into the .pring scarlet: e&p companies are running down the values of their reserves and mining companies are writing down the beginning of the reserves. with the beginning or end of the cycle? >> we're at the beginning, honestly. we are going to see what people were hoping to earlier only this

year. drawn -- been very they were very lucky in the sense that they were hedged when prices were dropping down to 50. mark: china has been dominating the news as of late. going back to last month on august 11 when the devaluation of the currency have been the slowdown in china, is that pushing any of this? oil, known because the production's rooms land. but the china story is really about the rest of the commodity complex and china is just heating up base metals. get this cycle where you countries like chile that are the most significant producers, 32% of the world copper production comes from chile. they dropped because china demand looks weak.

the cost of production comes down and we're looking at the chart right there. they do that when supply and --duction scarlet: is there any commodity in which there is a supply shortage? >> not very many of them. but if there to do train off of something, i would go with thing. it is in a deficit, but all the metals are very vulnerable. what i would suggest is go long on zinc but sort of thing else. .ark: you are being very kind thanks for joining us. good to meet you. ahead, u.s.ll

stocks fluctuating, fuzzy between gains and losses. the dow off by 13 points. all this before you think the big decision . we are going to look me the surface at the big winners and losers in the session so far. ♪

mark: welcome back to bloomberg market day. scarlet: we need to check in with dave and as a look at the markets. an extinct day and a next week. really choppy. >> fluctuating quite a bit today. if you look at it today, up by three points. , but onmall measure track to have the best week since july.

of volumee comparison today versus the 20 day average volume throughout the s&p. -- are being dramatic intoration hardware being the biggest gains of the year. expense.ower market in a blizzard today, mattress firm. decline compared to its competitors unless you have any sense that oil is not affecting everything from the company's doing that while hunting effect on long turning, and this is the worst stock decline in three

years. back to you. thank you. when it comes to the markets, economist's and investors are split on whether the fed will or should increase rates next week. here's a rundown of the greek rate divide. you kind of want to see the inflation more than usual. >> reasonable doubt that the fed may not be achieving a short run of 2% inflation. >> domestic case for raising rates is solid and it has been for a while. >> we are not in a recession yet. but the vector is in the wrong direction. >> we need to hike rates. >> we are in the end zone, and these clowns are sitting there debating whether or not we can get off zero. >> i have a lot of trouble with this idea. let's do it now and then let hold her breath.

>> we have created a wild economy. >> can a world where there is no inflation, it seems to me the idea that you hike interest rates just because they are very low does not seem compelling. casee international is flashing be careful. it is a hard call. >> wiring starting up? scarlet:? the most anticipated federal news conference will be held next thursday. at theet's take a look top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal at this hour. a dubious distinction for in brazil owned oil producer petrobras. it has $56 billion of outstanding securities making it the world or just not investment

rate corporate issuer followed by the s&p. growing scandal has had some of the suppliers into bankruptcy. scarlet: a new policy at walmart is making many mad. it says was to simplify its relationships. mark: another swipe and a former employer. a former colleague which is been promoted profited from front running clients exchange orders. citigroup denies the actually. he was fired in the middle of an investigation into rate rating. he is suing a wrongful termination claim. those are your top stories of this hour. scarlet: coming up, should colleges borrow money to build

football stadiums? ♪

mark: tulane university is not a football powerhouse, but the college is betting big on the future of its division i teams. homeet: after playing games in the city's massive superdome when they got a new stadium on campus angst you alumni donations and that. willem marx has that story. finding a parties never difficult in the big easy. sports fans are no strangers to a tailgate.

on the campus of tulane university, and part of new this is a new phenomenon. long known as an economic powerhouse, their football program is no darling. despite just three wins last s fans happilyson' filled the stadium. projectwas the capital easiest to raise money for. >> they have raised more than -- million in legends pledges, but before the donations arrived they needed cash to kickstart construction. they borrowed against its own anticipated guests. >> there are naysayers who feel borrowing for a death like

this facility's is not mission-critical. we do not agree with that in using some of our debt, while the philanthropy came man, with a decision that made a lot of sense to us. other college lunges across the country are borrowing to buy for large projects. they say the alumni funded stadiums cost the guangzhou was nothing. the teams can increase revenue. >> the more success we have on the field, the more people are going to donate, and the more people are going to buy tickets. what is it that we're going to do to get this program going in the direction people wanted to go in? for tulane, they say yes, not facility -- the facility. >> according to sports economist , these do not always profitable. >> they think they were going to get more applications from students and others.

none of those things ever worked out. along the hundred 28 colleges and economic spending on a per student basis the relatively flat over the past decade. spending on athletics rose dramatically. >> do they need a new football stadium? is it money was spent? i do not think it is a move that is going to pay off. i think they should have spent it on the educational program. >> we spoke tot was very happy. and thee the stadium team. >> perhaps one day with a donors will london aims to new types of programs. scarlet: we saw that the name of

the stadium is yeldon stadium. >> he is the largest donor. to that$20 million problem. and another alumnus had two dogs go to the school, and they own tampa bay buccaneers. the ownerom bentz is of the new orleans s saints. theresting thing is referral that money came in, they decided to borrow against it. we are talking about future pledges. what is the financial risk? >> it depends upon the donor contribution. tulane had a very good track record. around thersities

u.s. does not have such a gray track record in if they have a non-recession proof is this that goes up, they cannot make good on that pledge. the tuition fees and of being the backfield. scarlet: was there anyone who was happy about the exceeding -- the stadium? >> everyone was. there, theo were kids were arriving, 150 students for game went to the superdome. mark: enjoy your weekend. scarlet: we have much more coming up, including netflix. and a plan to shake up hollywood. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. some stories making headlines at this hour.

11 of the republican candidates will make it into prime time for next week's presidential debate. among them will be carly fiorina. the former hewlett-packard ceo was not among the candidates last time. the debate will air wednesday night at 8:00 a.m. -- p.m. eastern. candidates below 2% in the polls will take part in earlier events. joe biden is making it clear that his decision about running for president is more emotional than political. he appeared on stephen colbert's new late-night show. he said he is not ready to commit to a white house run. >> i do not think any man or woman should run for president exactly why know they would want to be president, and they can look at the people out there and say i promise you that you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy, and my passion to do this. scarlet: biden says that he and

his family are still reeling from the death of their son in late may. biden has run for president twice before. the mayor of baltimore will not seek reelection left here -- next year. stephanie new orleans late has been under fire ends the riots following the freddie gray. he died from his severed spine after being injured in police custody. a judge ruled thursday that all six trials will take lace of baltimore. donald trump spokesman has confirmed that he now owns 100% of the miss universe organization. he purchased nbc stake in the company and that he settled all lawsuits against the company. nbc pulled out of the relationship and you -- relationship after his comments about mexicans. those are your top stories. a lot coming up in the next half hour on this friday. could oil go to $20 a barrel?

the bearish case on the commodity that has not stopped gyrating. and walmart's quest for low prices could be hurting relationships with suppliers. we will tell you about the fight that is brewing. all that and much more coming up on bloomberg market day. netflix is making a major oscar purse this weekend at the toronto international festival where it will screen is first movie. they are working to shake up the movie business in the same way they has shaped up the small screen. tony snell from toronto is our file manager -- our film and entertainment reporter. bought the rights to this movie, which is what tends to happen before or at film festivals. so how is that place different from anyone else? what are they doing to disrupt the movie business? putting the lenses

on when it comes to buying feature films. they have been buying documentaries for a while, but they are really ramping up and buying feature films and these of no nation. they also have a rapid movie in the works. those should year. what we're seeing for the first time with netflix is an oscar push. that means bringing a film to a istival like toronto which one of the biggest and really starting a campaign. it has had a good reception so far. it will not have the same role at his other films, where you have physical? release. there are minimum requirements that a requirement by the academy for a films qualifying for an oscar, which means doing seven days in a theater in los angeles. that is what netflix is going to do, but primarily it will

release on the same day on it service. scarlet: it is going to release it in the movie theater to fulfill the minimum standards required by the economy to qualify for an oscar. how were music distributors reacting to all this? netflixirst time the hit this was when they sent him to the sequel to crunch in --er, hidden dragon and crouching tiger, hidden dragon. this film, to say it will not be said innd what they had conference calls with investors is that their business model and what netflix wants to build is not the same thing. they want to protect the windows they have in the profit they can make from having a distance between the time that something errors and when it goes to home cinema. scarlet: amazon is also at the

international film festival as well. >> yes. earlier this year they said they were starting up their own , and thisill studios is the first time they're going to be at toronto. they have not been as aggressive as netflix in the space. they have been less confrontational with of the aterchange because they have windows three or six months between the three of you will run of the sales and when it will appear on amazon prime. symbiotic.ch more cover the global film and entertainment industries for us here. you're based in l.a.. give residents sense of which will festivals matter and how they stack up. what is the significance of the

toronto international film festival versus when the other ones arrive. ? famous oneshe most in january, the venice film festival. they are the oldest festivals and they are much more for cinema people who go to a destination to see them. toronto and cannes film festival and go toore larger buy intel films -- and sell films. it is really, the reaction that you get is not one from the industry, it is from real people that will go to see a movie. they feel that maybe they will get a better sense of how that is going to do. it is the unofficial kickoff for oscar season. scarlet: the greatest time for us. thank you so much. our film and entertainment

reporter in toronto. analystto bring in our who covers netflix. he has an outperform rating on the stock. you have an outperform rating, how do you fold in their film commitments to your models? >> the movies are into rest thing. -- it is hard to point to anything and tease it out and say the specific thing will drive a subscriber number and the cost are even buried. you love to see these guys taking swings and connecting. samsung rate on tv with shows, winning emmy awards. if they could get some type of recognition with movies, that would be exciting as helpful for the story but hard to quantify. that it has one

for its television programming, does that translate into the bottom line? is there a quantifiable number? >> we cannot say you will get a certain number of silence run a certain show. it has covered media stocks for a while what you know is when you get a hit show, that you do tend to see a subscriber up left and i first got bullish on netflix when they cannot with housing parts because i regret things about that show that consumers would respond to it. powerful.een very you are a much higher level now in terms of expectations. a movie would not be transformational, just something that would go into a broad sea of contents including movies from disney, original letter working, and a whole momentum of subscription over the top. scarlet: i know that you are

talking out the breath of netflix selection of content. thistflix tries to make transition, in his cutting back on rights to nonexclusive contact. will that affect the breadth of its election that it does offer? they are changing the mix, but i think that his grace. i think that the opportunity to get a margin improvement in this company is not nearly as good as creating original hit shows. they have done so well at this that i like to see them focusing on that more. i think that is the real brand opportunity. nobody cannot all the content in the world. what you need to have is content that will convince a lot of going up to $10 a month,

and the margin leverage on it is tremendous. you hit the point where they are stable in context cost. that really drops for rapidly to the bottom line. i think it will be the second leg of this story. look at the stock price, they have declined for seven straight days before coming back a little bit. was there a rereading of the stock here? 10 the world's most momentum german stocks that is going to go way up and way down, you have to fasten your seatbelt and is in for a bobby ryan if you're going to be logging -- billy long or short. they are on the right side of what is happening from a secular perspective on tv. their brand is huge. we have surveyed consumers. the netflix's repertoire watching netflix as much or more as they are watching tv. tv costs $80 a month, and these guys are charging nine dollars a

month. i think they can move that up a few dollars. each dollar that they added 700 million to the bottom line. i think they will emerge the winner even from here. scarlet: thank you so much. coming up on the bloomberg market day, oils slide is put in perspective. we take a deeper look at goldman sachs. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. let's get you a check on how commodity prices have settled in trading. i will bring in my colleague alix steel.

you're talking about goldman sachs is forecast of crude oil. ordered five dollars is where it is right now. but possibly $20 a barrel. what is your read on this divergence between perspectives on oil? are all looking at the same metrics, but people are coming up with entirely different forecast. it all boils down to one data point. how you will non-opec supplies be brought in. when that production rules over his when the market balances is when these people have emerging views. a same we will see a decline of about 500,000 barrels by the other 2018. up andwill also ratchet therefore is going to put more pressure on opec to produce more. the balance market. the goldman sachs calls quite

different. they see production shuttling and itthey say you will see as , almost 600,000 barrels a day for the u.s. and in addition, about 280 5000 barrels outside the u.s. in the gulf of mexico, canada, brazil. that is a ready extreme call to have to see that shut in. goldman says the thing that is going to do it is a capital market. the capital markets have the producers and say we will not give you any more market. there is an important time consideration. scarlet: coming up in the next couple of months, banks will decide on the credit line to a lot of these commodity companies. alix: redetermination. this is right around the corner. we talk a lot about the high-yield players here in the u.s. and how they are going to get squeezed. but goldman points out it is really the investment grade u.s. producers who produce three times as much as a high-yield

guys that really need to come in under pressure from a meeting not enough for the high-heeled players to go out of business or shut down production. the investment guys that need to pare back. that is why they seek $20 will do it. they say $20 could be hit, and immediatecause an rebalancing. that could be hit once we hit storage capacity. if we keep producing, we do not use the cruise, and we had horse storage capacity, a familiar story from about eight euros. scarlet: whether from their perspectives, it seems that opec matters less than the shale producers or canada. alix: they matter differently is what i was saying. if he saw saudi arabia cutting production, it would better a lot more. but they are not producing quite as much. as long as they are overproducing, it leaves the shown inon-02 really

production, because it is made it very clear that certain countries are not going to do that. they did not say in the about opec cutting, because they produce 31.6 million barrels a day, and that is perfect if this other one gets shot in. very big influence on the market, but in a day when -- different way. are not they unpredictable. they are the predictable aspect of this relationship. alix: they're just beginning differently. the other points that goldman has in the note, which is really quite fascinating is the relationship between emerging-market currencies in the quantity itself. this is percolating throughout the whole analyst community that is a pivotal factor. if you can take you do to have inflationary cost in certain countries like brazil and russia where you have seen the ruvell and the reality of hammered over the last year, oil production

will rise because cost has gone down. to dohough it is cheaper so, you are going to produce as much as you can get as much as you can. it is difficult to make a case of why the air conditioner production. scarlet: who is the dog and who is the tale? it is going to trickle down to the rest of the emerging markets, i do not know. that linkage between emerging-market currencies and what they do with production ties over to copper as well. alix: absolutely. argument forthat any commodity that is heavily produced outside of the u.s.. up to 40% of global copper supply. they need to see the currency stabilize and rise to stopped inflationary cost in order to want to shut in production.

it was just so fascinating today that they have two totally different agencies with different takes on the exact same data. it shows how difficult it is to predict what is happening of oil, because nobody understands shale, because this is the first time it has happened. scarlet: we do not have a precedent for that to draw on. thank you so much. nexton't be back in the hour to take us through the market close. not the top stories of this hour. wildfires are raging in central california, and more evacuations have now been ordered. sheriff deputies are going door-to-door in the blazes threatening giant sequoia trees, some 3000 years old. the federal government is ending a decade-long relationship with the waldorf-astoria. it is now under chinese ownership, and that has officials worried about espionage. switch has been in more for months, but it was announced today.

the actors had complained about the treatment of the crocodiles whose skins are used with the bag, but they make up about 15% of the electric company sales. coming up on the bloomberg market day, shares of walmart have been hit hard this year. they are down about 25%. lacking behind the broader market. the retail giant is now hitting the flyers with new ease as well. how this could affect all of the products you see on your local martial. -- walmart shelves. ♪

scarlet: this is the bloomberg market day. we have some breaking news on advanced micro devices. reports been some saying that microsoft is in serious talks about buying the

chipmaker. this was in the news earlier today. they were raising the rating on any of the -- on amd. saying that it is no secret that they are cpu roadmap is hardly competitive. scarlet: thank you. that stock popping on that unconfirmed report. walmart's suppliers are fighting back. vendors who still there gets to the world's biggest retailer or refusing to pay new warehouse fees. earlier today convert newsroom orders explained to betty liu and pimm fox why walmart is treading the fees in the first place. >> this is a part of a whole companywide review i and how they run their businesses. reinvigorateng to margins. but they started doing back in june was sending letters to about 10,000 u.s. suppliers telling them that they will start employees sing new fees on

many of them, and 1% fee for using a warehouse in 1% fee for using a distribution center, a fee if you wanted to be in a new store. they will closely link how they were paid to win their inventorytakes 90 days or inventory to move, you will get paid every 90 days rather than every 30 days. some of these these do not sound like a law, but are a company, and there are some big companies -- procter & gamble, clerks, johnson & johnson that do billions of dollars in business, it will add up to a lot of money for a supplier. and the change for a small supplier will be drastic as well . some suppliers in and went to their banks and cover with more loans. betty: how are they able to do this? this is not about fair,

this is about making money. >> suppliers are really upset about this. none of the suppliers wanted to be quoted in the story that you can find on bloomberg.com. they are afraid of hurting the relationship of debt with walmart. they do not know what to do. some of them are coming to be hoping that they can raise awareness about this. wem: here is our concerns, want walmart to hear them. >> this is walmart, they are vague, they have been long known for leaving every last penny out of suppliers. -- but they were not known for trying to change payment terms are attack on added fees. other retailers do do that. they charge warehousing fees and distribution center fees. they say to those suppliers are

not getting our lowest price. we are already giving and brought a lot of low price, and i you want us to pay additional. is this different from the industry? >> walmart says it is in line of the industry, and in some places, macy's was pointed out as a retailer that charges on additional extra fees. it is mostly, not that walmart has done anything crazy, it is just that they've done something crazy for walmart. we have much more coming up on the bloomberg market day. we will counting down to the close. be less than week away from the policy decisions.

alix: this is the bloomberg market day. you are looking at a live shot of president obama speaking at a town hall with service members

at fort meade on the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. today nearrlier ground zero, victim families read the names of those killed when the towers collapsed. remembrances are also taking place at the pentagon. the attacks on 9/11 killed almost 3000 people. good afternoon. alix: we do want to take a look at the markets at this hour. a pretty uneventful day across the board. the dow at 50 points, move on. scarlet: though they are higher for the week. but if you just look at this week, we are up. still positive for the year. alix: