mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. and "with all due respect" -- of celebrityst apprentice, hostilities to, baby. john: on the show tonight, the hillary clinton's lap and then make america great cap, but first joe biden -- this is a big week in the campaign. bere's the guaranteed to good for television republican debate and lori clinton's poll numbers are raising real questions in the democratic party and john sets it up with his account of vice president

widen's secret meeting with a big-time barack obama bundler who is officially for now on hillary clinton's side. we don't have footage of that secret eating, but we do have footage of the article which you can and should read in full. tell everybody how your article advances the most interesting story in presidential politics, which is will biden do it? john: we're going to talk about two pieces of this, but we are going to talk about the fund-raising piece first. joe biden is, according to everyone around him, there still some question about whether he's going to do this. all of the human stuff is holding him back. but no one disputes he's much more gung ho about running now than he was a month ago and is starting to do things in an active way to have a campaign in waiting setting up. reaching out to robert wolf, someone who can't raise money

and connect him to wall street and would be a huge, symbolic get. that away from hillary clinton and would reasonably have obama's blessing, that would be a huge get if biden were to do it. it would mean a lot and send a lot of signals. there are lots of people currently for hillary clinton who used to be for obama. if they jumped to biden, it would cause a huge kerfuffle because of the way the clintons get covered and because of the symbolism. but it's just one of many things -- this is directly widen, but a lot of biden's people have stepped up their activity and want to make it possible for the mechanics to be there. to whatrt that contrary a lot of people say, that first debate in mid-october the democrats are having is not a hard deadline. then thatthinking had

the timetable was we must decide by early october because of that debate and because of the florida, craddick party convention. they are now thinking no, let's wait until november. -- democratic party convention. we can see whether clinton certs to turn it around and we can wait until after her benghazi testimony and see how that effects are. and crucially, we give joe biden and his family another month to heal and get ready to take this on if they are going to take it on. bidenthere is no way joe will be up to speed with hillary clinton whether he gets into day or a month and a half. all they need to do is make a filing deadline and get widen and most of the debates and wait to see how vulnerable hillary clinton is. can wait a good, long time and i don't think he needs to campaign that much.

he can say i'm busy being vice president, my family needs me, go to iowa and see if there's a grand -- see if there is a groundswell and wait for hillary to falter. john: all of the signs and the heardg -- the poll has down, they have biden a sickly tied with sanders even a he's not in the race and you see her atrophying support with democratic women, which is the most worrying thing in the poll. those are all reasons for joe biden to get more serious. there's also the republican side of the poll with a good half-dozen storylines take to write in. obviously donald trump is at the top of the leaderboard and ben carson is in a solid second. but here is something striking -- in a head to head matchup, trump is virtually tied with hillary clinton. the margin is so small, you could not squeeze a thumb drive

of deleted e-mails in there. what do these numbers say about the current state of the republican race? mark: it's going to be hard that they can't send trump into the general election against hillary clinton. now that inhing is every state poll that matters and every national poll, it is trump, then carson, and no one else is even close. havemeans those two guys created so much space between them and the others that it is going to be difficult for anyone else to get into the story line over the next few weeks and maybe even months. john: we will talk about if the establishment can rally behind someone as our next topic. carson.trump, 20% for republicans find two guys who have never held office before and at least in trump's case, many don't even think are

qualified. is not qualified and does not have the temperament or intellect to be president, yet they are far ahead embodying this antiestablishment outsiders spirit. stateally in these early s, they are putting so much distance between them and the rest of the field. someone will have to break away or they will be the two that you have to beat. has itsking on trump own complexities but taking on carson has its own complexities. if you are trying to think about how do i move up when trump, as long as he is the leader, is going to get the bulk of the media coverage? reason they are focused on the debate is it's one of the few chances where on some level they are on equal footing with trump. but now they have to worry about catching up to trump and carson.

it makes it a very tall order for everyone and it shows that trump's theory that he would continue to rise despite the troubles he has had has come true. with trump and carson as the giants from the outside world, that makes the republican establishment panicky. right now, the establishment thinks it has for big possible bets -- scott walker, jeb bush, marco rubio, and john kasich. all of them are trying to raise their profile enough to become the establishment alternative to trump and carson. scott walker tonight is giving a big speech in las vegas talking about ways to rein in unions at the national level only has in wisconsin. all four establishment candidates are under huge pressure to shine, particularly at the debate on wednesday. bush and walker appeared to deflate at the first debate. so they need to step up big time at the debate. look at what has happened to the

poll numbers since july. both of them have come way down and john kasich has gone up a little bit. rubio has basically stayed static. with the big debate on wednesday, who has the strongest hand not just in the debate, but beyond to become the establishment alternative? the person who has the strongest hand is john kasich by far. it doesn't show up in those numbers -- where you have seen him rise is the one place he's trying to rise, which is in new hampshire, where his numbers have improved appreciably. there's a growing sense among the republican establishment crumbled, walker has marco rubio has never taken off, and that bush has crumbled to the point now that only one who has any forward momentum is john kasich. ,e could easy optimistic compassionate conservative that they could rally behind if he

continues to perform well and improves on his last debate performance which if you will recall was very strong. mark: i will tell you what he might be the answer -- at least he's doing well in a state. there is no well to stop trump unless you win one of the first four states. where can walk or when? iowa was his state and he's down to 10th place. rubio is casting around for a place to when in the first four. bush has some strength in south carolina and nevada but if you don't win the first two, i'm not sure he will get there. k-6 in new hampshire is the one strength. -- john kasich in new hampshire is the one strength. maybe bush with his national experience and hundreds of millions of dollars, but right now, you have to say if you thet beat trump in one of first four, you cannot be the establishment candidate. john: we are going to agree a

little bit too much here. bush's money gives him the ability to last longer than some of these other folks. the money for marker and rubio -- for walker and rubio has dried up considerably. as one of them collapses in a case of walker and flatlined in the case of rubio, not a lot of people being up for those two. bush has a lot of money. if he can somehow mount a comeback, he could be in this but he will have to do it soon because he starting to look like damaged goods to people who would be his natural constituent in the republican establishment. mark: there is still so much vote up for grabs. getting someump is establishment votes and carson is getting some establishment votes. someone is going to have to take that away. john kasich will continue to grow, but it is not clear to me which of those for right now is best positioned. john: lots more fun stuff coming

up on this show. what hillary clinton said about donald trump's view of women, what bernie sanders set at liberty university and what new york fashionistas say about those make america great again hats. that's after this. ♪

candidates, the two must aggressively going after trump are the two women running for president. watch part of the web video made by carly fiorini with the subject of trump's insulting -- insult in "rolling stone" about her looks. miss the arena: ladies, look at this face. arena: ladies, look at this face and look at the --

look at your faces. this is the face of the 61-year-old woman i am proud of every year and every wrinkle. john: as if on cue and as if coordinated from the democratic side of the aisle, hillary clinton at the university of northern iowa in cedar falls, she charged into the fray on the case of trump versus the fairer sex. ms. clinton: you have heard trump insult and demean women, haven't you? he occasionally throws some heat my way. he recently said i don't have a clue about women's health issues. he would do a much better job for women than i would. as i have said, that's a general election debate i'm really looking forward to. [applause] and i love it when he gets called out for his offensive comments about women.

he comes back and says he loves women. in fact, he says he cherishes women. that's nice. same to you,ll the mr. trump, i would rather you stop cherishing us and respecting us instead. so those are two sharp edged attacks on donald trump on this issue. i'm curious as to whether you think one of them was stronger than the other. i liked the carly fiorini thing an awful lot, but i'm curious as to how resonant this could be more damaging to trump? from the supero pac and hillary clinton on the stump are coming from different motives. carly fiorini is doing anything she can to get into the mix. but some the rise people in the press have overstated how far she has come up in national polls. thewants to continue to be

center of attention. hillary clinton wants to change the subject to talking about the republican front runner and get women back on her side by going after trump. i think they are both on solid plungebecause trump will back at them both but not as hard as he would punch back at a man. the reality of the world is that we should treat our candidates equally, that it is hard for a man to beat up a woman and get away with it in the way a man can beat up a man and get away with it it presidential politics. mark: i agree. hillary clinton trying to get the women voters back and try to remind people what it would look like with her as the democratic nominee and show people what it would be like to have her taking on donald trump in a general election, reinforcing the notion that she's the most likely nominee in her party. i think that is an effective tactic and trump seeds into that and gives her somewhere to turn that is to her benefit. candidates on the

stage, it's going to be up to the moderators as to whether they want to incite a discussion between donald trump and carly fiorini over what is the question of an alleged insult, not a matter of substance. that goes after trump on any topic, trump is going to come back on her business record and there's a lot of reporting out there on her business record where she is not going to be on the strongest ground substantively or rhetorically. john: the problem is because he's not just made an insult, but with the megan kelly thing, there are a couple of instances in which she could say you don't want to take me seriously, sir because you are a misogynist and she will have evidence to work with if she makes that claim. mark: that is one thing people are going to watch on wednesday. one other thing we want to talk about is bernie sanders at of all places, jerry falwell's

liberty university. he went there to give his speech and reach out. here is a taste of how america's favorite socialist mesh with the evangelical crowd after being injured by jerry falwell junior. falwell:rs -- mr. people have been asking if i to find anyle common ground with the senator and i think i have. if you would come out. i think in the future, he is going to be a fan of the liberty flames. [applause] understand the issues of abortion and gay marriage are issues you feel very strongly about. we disagree on those issues. i get that. but let me respectfully suggest that there are other issues out there that are of enormous

consequence to our country and, in fact, to the entire world that maybe, just maybe, we do not disagree on. and maybe, just maybe, we can try to work together to resolve them. substantively -- mark: substantively strong and the kind of thing i cannot imagine hillary clinton doing. this was a strong and important step for bernie sanders. i 1000% agree. it's not just something you can't imagine hillary clinton doing, it's something that you cannot have imagined bernie sanders doing. onis seen that because he's the far left as not being someone capable of post-partisan appeal and reaching across the aisle. yet, in fact, we know when it comes to economics, there are

parts of the tea party and democratic left that are in agreement and that is what ernie sanders is zeroing on here. he might not get any of those votes, but boy does it seem smart to me to highlight the fact that we have some areas where there is cross ideological agreement, especially on issues of populism, the banks, economics, etc. no doubt the students at liberty university are a polite group and they were not going to heckle him, but to go down there and reach out and explicitly say here is what we disagree on, but it is important to speak -- important to speak to people who disagree with you and emphasize economic issues. i think all the ways we have underestimated bernie sanders, the bigness of his vision, the bigness of his willingness to talk to people from the other party of people who don't agree with him will become increasingly a huge source of his strength taking on hillary clinton and maybe joe biden. john: again, laying into an

element of his strength, which is his consistency. that speech is a different speech in terms of some of the words and some of the themes and reaching across the party aisle, but in terms of how he looks giving it and the kinds of principles it embodies, thoroughly consistent with everything he has been saying keythat consistency is so to why people have been drawn to him, why he has generated not just support but enthusiasm and so much more enthusiasm than hillary clinton has been able to muster in this campaign. mark: i'm sure his campaign has discussions both before and after, but can you imagine if hillary clinton was thinking about going to liberty university? she would have hundreds of hours of meetings. the guy just went into the lions did and did a great job. have and they would rewritten her speech 437 times.

it would have been a nightmare of cobbled together speechifying. we took donald trump's hat to fashion week. that bombshell support -- that shell report when we come back. ♪

john: the following statement is 100% accurate and true -- donald trump told the "new york times" that his make america great again has are the hottest fashion item there is. we take fact checking very seriously, so our man took some of those hats to new york fashion week headquarters in chelsea to get to the bottom of the claim. >> donald trump says this is the hottest fashion item there is. we are here at new york fashion week to see if that is true. ♪

>> first big question -- what is the fashion item right now? classic items. >> what about a classic hat question mark >> i'm into dad hats. simple baseball hats that are like under styled. >> trump described this as the hottest fashion item there is. >> trump does not know what he is talking about. >> you're fired. >> i guess it's really awesome. snap backs are pretty cool. >> if you had to rock this had -- this hat? tucked into boyfriend jeans and adidas superstars.

>> would you mind modeling this or us? >> you cannot be racist. i'm mexican and i'm not a drug dealer. >> is it smart for trump to get into the fashion game? him, but heure for can wear one of these has to cover the mess on his head. >> what did you just buy? >> i just a donald trump make america great again hat. excise you have the gold lettering. >> of course. i have nothing but the best. >> strike oppose. -- strike oppose. we promised no models were harmed during the making of that

dio. -- of that video. ♪

mark: we are live 24/7 on bloomberg politics.com and on the tube twice a day. we are on for an hour at 5:00 eastern time teeing up the big republican debate. tomorrow, from me and mark, we say to you, sayonara. ♪ ♪

joe: we are moments when the closing bell. i am joe weisenthal. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu in for alix steel. we're moments away from the closing bell. ♪ [closing bell ringing] scarlet: stocks flipping days before the fed's key policy decision. emerging-market assets gaining ground. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" it is fed week and we are doing the countdown.