john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect" to the former host of "celebrity apprentice", hasta la vista, baby. ♪ mark: on the show tonight, the hillary clinton's lap and then make america great cap, but first joe biden -- this is a big week in the campaign. there's the guaranteed to be good for television republican debate and hillary clinton's poll numbers are raising real questions in the democratic party, and john sets it up with his account of vice president biden's secret meeting with a

big-time barack obama bundler, who is officially for now on hillary clinton's side. we don't have footage of that secret meeting, but we do have footage of john's article, which you can and should read in full. on bloomberg politics.com. tell everybody how your article advances the most interesting story in presidential politics, which is will biden do it? john: we're going to talk about two pieces of this, but we are going to talk about the fund-raising piece first. we will talk about the timetable after that. joe biden is, according to everyone around him, there still some question about whether he's going to do this. all of the human stuff is holding him back. at the same time, no one disputes he's much more gung ho about running now than he was a month ago and is starting to do things in an active way to have a campaign in waiting setting up. reaching out to robert wolf, someone who can raise a lot of

money, connect him to wall street, and would be a huge, symbolic "get." if he took her away from secretary clinton, and would reasonably have obama's blessing, that would be a huge get if biden were to do it. it would mean a lot and send a lot of signals. it is important on a lot of levels. mark: there are lots of people currently for hillary clinton who used to be for obama. if they jumped to biden, it would cause a huge kerfuffle because of the way the clintons get covered and because of the symbolism. but that wolfe meeting, is just one of many things people in biden world are doing, a lot of biden's people have stepped up their activity and want to make it possible for the mechanics to be there. you report that contrary to what a lot of people say, that first debate in mid-october the democrats are having is not a hard deadline. biden may put his decision off.

john: the thinking had been the timetable was we must decide by early october because of that debate and because of the jefferson jackson in iowa, the florida democratic party convention at the end of the month. they are now thinking no, let's wait until november democratic -- possibly. we can still make the filing deadlines, we can see whether clinton starts to turn it around and we can wait until after her benghazi testimony and see how that affects her. and crucially, we give joe biden and his family another month to heal and get ready to take this on if they are going to take it on. mark: there is no way joe biden will be organizationally up to speed with hillary clinton whether he gets into day or a month and a half. all they need to do is make a filing deadline and get biden in most of the debates, and wait

to see how vulnerable hillary clinton is. i always thought, he can wait a good long time as long as he's on the ballot. he doesn't even need to campaign that much. he can say i'm busy being vice president, my family needs me, go to iowa and see if there is a groundswell and wait for hillary to falter. john: what they are seeing is all of the signs in the polling, today that washington post poll has her down again. they have biden basically tied with sanders even though he's not in the race, and you see her atrophying support with democratic women, which is the most worrying thing in the poll. those are all reasons for joe biden to get more serious. there's also the republican side of the poll with a good half-dozen storylines take to -- baked right in. obviously trump is at the top of the leaderboard as usual, and ben carson is in a solid second. but here is something striking -- in a head to head matchup, trump is virtually tied with hillary clinton.

the margin is so small, you could not squeeze a thumb drive of deleted e-mails in there. what do these numbers say about the current state of the republican race? to argue for republicans that they cannot send trump into the general election against hillary clinton. the bigger thing is now that in every state poll that matters and every national poll, it is trump, then carson, and no one else is even close. that means those two guys have created so much space between them and the others that it is going to be difficult for anyone else to get into the story line over the next few weeks and maybe even months. john: we will talk about if the establishment can rally behind someone as our next topic. just the numbers, look at that. 33% for trump, 20% for carson. 53% of the republican electorate behind two guys who have never

held office before, and who many people in the country, at least in trump's case, many don't even think are qualified. 67% say trump is not qualified and does not have the temperament or intellect to be president, yet they are far ahead embodying this antiestablishment outsiders spirit. those guys really, especially in early states, they are now putting so much distance between them and the rest of the field. someone will have to break away or they will be the two that you have to beat. mark: taking on trump has its own complexities but taking on carson has its own complexities. if you are any of the other candidates, and even think about how do i move up, when trump, as long as he is the leader, is going to continue to get the bulk of the media coverage? reason they are focused on the debate is it's one of the few chances where on some level they are on equal footing with trump. but now they have to worry about not just catching up to donald

trump, but catching up to carson in early states and nationally. it makes it a very tall order for everyone and it shows that trump's theory that he would continue to rise despite the troubles he has had has come true. so with trump and carson as the giants from the outside world, that makes the republican establishment panicky. right now, the establishment thanks it has four big possible bets -- scott walker, jeb bush, marco rubio, and john kasich. all of them are trying to raise their profile enough to become the establishment alternative to trump and carson. scott walker, for instance, tonight is giving a big speech in las vegas talking about ways to rein in unions at the national level the way he has in wisconsin. all four establishment

candidates are under huge pressure to shine, particularly at the debate on wednesday. bush and walker appeared to deflate at the first debate. bush and walker need to step up big time at the debate. look at what has happened to the poll numbers since july. both of them have come way down and john kasich has gone up a little bit. rubio has basically stayed static. at this point, with the big debate on wednesday, of those four establishment candidates, who has the strongest hand not just in the debate, but beyond to become the establishment alternative? john: i think right now the person with the strongest hand is john kasich by far. it doesn't really show up in those numbers, where you would see him rise is the one place he's trying to rise, which is in new hampshire, where his numbers have improved appreciably. there's a growing sense among the republican establishment that scott walker has crumbled,

marco rubio has never taken off, and that bush has crumbled to the point now that only one who has any forward momentum is john kasich. he could easy optimistic, compassionate conservative that they could rally behind if he continues to perform well and improves on his last debate performance which if you will recall, was very strong. mark: i will tell you why i think john kasich might be the answer. at least he's doing well in a state. there is no well to stop trump unless you win one of the first four states. it's just the reality. if you look today, where can walker win? iowa was his state and he's down to 10th place. rubio is casting around for a place to when in the first four. bush has some strength in south carolina and nevada but if you don't win the first two, i'm not sure he will get there. john kasich in new hampshire is the one strength. i will say, i think between walker, rubio and others, at least one of them is going to have a second act. maybe bush with his national experience and hundreds of millions of dollars, but right now, you have to say if you can't beat trump in one of the first four, you cannot be the establishment candidate.

john: we are going to agree a little bit too much here. i think obviously, bush's money gives him the ability to last longer than some of these other folks. the money for for walker and rubio has dried up considerably. those guys, as one of them collapses in a case of walker and flatlined in the case of rubio, not a lot of people being up for those two. bush has a lot of money. john kasich is still raising money. if bush can somehow mount a comeback, he could be in this but he will have to do it soon, because he starting to look like damaged goods to people who would be his natural constituent in the republican establishment. mark: there is still so much vote up for grabs. you would think in a normal race, some establishment candidate would be doing well. right now, trump is getting some establishment votes and carson is getting some establishment votes. someone is going to have to take that away. i still think, some of these can have a second act, maybe john kasich will continue

to grow, but it is not clear to me which of those for right now is best positioned. john: cannot wait until wednesday night to see what happens. lots more fun stuff coming up on this show. what hillary clinton said about donald trump's view of women, what bernie sanders set at -- set at liberty university, and what new york fascination -- fashionistas say about those make america great again hats. that's after this. ♪

♪ john: today, the two candidates most aggressively going after rex are theurus two women running for president. first watch part of the web video made by carly fiorina, with the subject of trump's insult in "rolling stone" about her looks. carly fiorina: ladies, look at this face and look at your faces. [applause]

the face of leadership. [applause] this is the face of the 61-year-old woman, i am proud of every year and every wrinkle. john: as if on cue and as if coordinated from the democratic side of the aisle, hillary clinton at the university of northern iowa in cedar falls, she charged into the fray on the case of trump versus the fairer sex. hillary clinton: you have heard mr. trump insult and demean women, haven't you? he occasionally throws some heat my way. he recently said i don't have a clue about women's health issues. he would do a much better job for women than i would. as i have said, that's a general election debate i'm really looking forward to. [applause] and i love it when he gets called out for his offensive comments about women.

he comes back and says he loves women. in fact, he says he cherishes women. that's nice. but if it's all the same to you, mr. trump, i would rather you stop cherishing us and respecting us instead. [applause] john: so those are two sharp edged attacks on donald trump on this issue. i'm curious as to whether you think one of them was stronger than the other. i like the carly fiorina thing an awful lot, but i'm curious as to how resonant this could be more damaging to trump? mark: that video from the super pac and hillary clinton on the stump are coming from different motives. carly fiorina is doing anything she can to get into the mix. she is on the rise but some people in the press have overstated how far she has come

up in national polls. she wants to continue to be the center of attention. hillary clinton wants to change the subject to talking about the republican front runner and get women back on her side by going after trump. i think they are both on solid ground because trump will plunge -- punch back at them both but not as hard as he would punch back at a man. john: it is harder to punch back, the reality of the world is, although we treat our candidates equally, it is hard for a man to beat up a woman and get away with it in the way a man can beat up a man and get away with it in presidential politics. i agree with you. hillary clinton definitely, trying to get women voters back. also, i think trying to remind people what it would look like with her as the democratic nominee and show people what it

would be like to have her taking on donald trump in a general election, reinforcing the notion that she's the most likely nominee in her party. i think that is an effective tactic and trump feeds it and gets her somewhere to turn that is to her benefit. like he has done lately. mark: given 11 candidates on the stage, it's going to be up to the moderators as to whether they want to incite a discussion between donald trump and carly fiorina over what is basically, the question of an alleged insult, not a matter of substance. i think it fiorina goes after trump on any topic, trump is going to come back on her business record. there's a lot of reporting out there on her business record where she is not going to be on the strongest ground substantively or rhetorically. john: of course, the problem is, because he has not just deleted insult towards far but also the megyn kelly thing, there's a couple of instances in which she could try to say you don't want to take me seriously, sir because you are a misogynist and she will have evidence to work with if she makes that claim. mark: that is one thing people are going to watch on wednesday.

one other thing we want to talk about is bernie sanders at of all places, jerry falwell's liberty university. he went there to give his speech and reach out. here is a taste of how america's favorite socialist mesh with the evangelical crowd after being introduced by jerry falwell junior. mr. falwell: people have been asking if i have been able to find any common ground with the senator and i think i have. i think this morning, senator sanders, if you could come up. i think in the future, he is going to be a fan of the liberty flames. [applause] mr. sanders: i understand the issues of abortion and gay marriage are issues you feel very strongly about. we disagree on those issues. i get that. but let me respectfully suggest that there are other issues out

there that are of enormous consequence to our country and, in fact, to the entire world that maybe, just maybe, we do not disagree on. and maybe, just maybe, we can try to work together to resolve them. mark: substantively strong, and the kind of thing i cannot imagine hillary clinton doing. i think this was a really smart and important step for bernie sanders today. john: i 1000% agree. i think it is one of those things where, it's not just something you can't imagine hillary clinton doing, it's something that you cannot have imagined bernie sanders doing. he is seeing because of being on the far left of the democratic arty, of -- party, as being someone not capable of post-partisan appeal and reaching across the aisle. yet, in fact, we know when it comes to economics, there are parts of the tea party and democratic left that are in agreement and that is what bernie sanders is zeroing on here. he might not get any of those votes, but boy does it seem smart to me to highlight the fact that we have some areas where there is cross ideological agreement, especially on issues of populism, the banks, economics, etc.

mark: he did bring some supporters with him, there's no doubt this and that liberty university are a polite group and they were not going to heckle him, but to go down there and reach out and explicitly say here is what we disagree on, but it is important to speak to people who disagree with you and emphasize economic issues. issues of economic justice, i think all the ways we have underestimated bernie sanders, the bigness of his vision, the bigness of his willingness to talk to people from the other party, people who don't agree with him, i think that will become increasingly a huge source of his strength taking on hillary clinton and maybe joe biden. john: again, playing into another element of his strength, which is his consistency. that speech is a different speech in terms of some of the

words and some of the themes and reaching across the party aisle, but in terms of how he looks giving it and the kinds of principles it embodies, thoroughly consistent with everything he has been saying throughout this campaign. and that consistency is so key to why people have been drawn to him, why he has generated not just support but enthusiasm and so much more enthusiasm than hillary clinton has been able to muster in this campaign. mark: i'm sure his campaign has discussions both before and after, but can you imagine if hillary clinton was thinking about going to liberty university? she would have hundreds of hours of meetings. lots of preparation of what could go wrong. the guy just went into the lions den, and did and did a great job. john: and they would have

rewritten her speech 437 times. it would have been a nightmare of cobbled together speechifying. anyway, we're moving on. we took donald trump's hat to fashion week. that bombshell report when we come back after these words from our sponsors. ♪

john: the following statement is 100% accurate and true -- donald trump told the "new york times" that his "make america great again" hats are the hottest fashion item there is. we take fact checking very seriously, so our man took some of those hats to new york fashion week headquarters in chelsea to get to the bottom of the claim. >> donald trump says this is the hottest fashion item there is. we are here at new york fashion week to see if that is true. ♪ >> first big question -- what is

the fashion item right now? >> trenches and classic items. >> what about a classic hat? >> i'm into dad hats. simple baseball hats that are like under styled. >> let me show you a baseball cap that might change your mind. trump described this as the hottest fashion item there is. agree or disagree? >> i disagree. he doesn't know what he's talking about. >> no. >> donald trump, you're fired. >> i guess it's really awesome. snap backs are pretty cool. >> if you had to rock this hat? >> i'd wear it tucked into boyfriend jeans and adidas superstars. >> would you mind modeling this or us?

>> i am not a supporter. you cannot be racist. i'm mexican and i'm not a drug dealer. >> what i respect about him is he does not care what anyone thinks and for fashion that is what you have to do. >> is it smart for trump to get into the fashion game? >> i'm not sure for him, but he can wear one of these has to cover the mess on his head. >> what did you just buy? >> i just bought a donald trump make america great again hat. >> i see you got gold lettering. >> of course. i have nothing but the best. >> and turn. strike a pose. john: we promised no models were harmed during the making of that video. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: we are live 24/7 on

bloomberg politics.com and on the tube twice a day. we are on for an hour at 5:00 eastern time teeing up the big republican debate. on wednesday. john: until tomorrow, from me and mark, we say to you, sayonara. ♪

♪ emily: investors grow even more cautious about china's economy, but could its growing internet industry give beijing a much-needed boost? ♪ emily: i'm emily chang, and this is "bloomberg west." alibaba fights back against the critical article. plus, want to build a self-driving car? tom-tom says no problem. and salesforce prepares to take san francisco with dreamforce. all of that ahead on "bloomberg west." china stocks slumping the most in three weeks. new economic data added to concerns about the slowdown.