john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. with all due respect, to the gipper tonight it is all about the horse race. >> hello from the ronald reagan library. soon, two rounds of republican candidate will engage in back and forth on affairs domestic and foreign live on cnn. here is what the venue looks like from above. it is huge. the main event is at 8:00.

how did the primetime candidates try to frame their messages going into the debate? turnedh's super pac donald trump into a super villain. card.aul question trumps >> people don't want this out of the next president. my external trunk and i are in different businesses. he is in the entertainment business. >> i have watched this food fight. nobody cares. >> marco rubio cleared up questions about his ball handling skills. >> i recognize i have [indiscernible] >> lightning struck and i found myself in the command center for ronald raingea reagan. >> this is the dating season,

not the marrying season. >> ted cruz to they stand against scorpions. to createmp took time a signature boast. >> we are going to make our military so strong and so great. that is how the candidates set the scene. in the context for tonight's debate, the establishment in thete have gone poof polls. carson and tromp have been going up. especially after the first debate. who do you think did the best job of said the table for themselves? john: weber was flying the helicopter -- whoever was flying the helicopter. i have to answers to the question. , having his people go out and say we are not going to get into food bites. people are going to attack us.

we are not going to let people get off our strategy. if case of gives a good performance he could shine. carly, her success is overrated. she has not moved up that much. she has set the table. shaming cnn to letting her into the debate, putting out her video.ac putting out a p she has all eyes on her. john: it is a high risk strategy. donald trump is going to be heard from a lot tonight. if she takes him down, is she going to rise? if she fails it is going to be leading the air out of the carly balloon. mark: the other person is tromp. he has made it clear if he takes -- if you take came on you

maybe taking a risk. i think he has put himself into a position where people recognize attacking him is a risk because he may not punch back. i could see him tonight turning the other cheek. i think he has made it harder for these people to get a read on how to get to him. john: so he is more dignified and christlike. i'm not sure how to go on either one of those fronts. ben carson, a guy who everyone underrated, even watching it last time, there are no huge expectations. mark: he is a consistent performer. john: the first debate was all mp.ut tru theght, you may see some of

candidates care an spent some fire at each other. oh why would any candidate who spent time not taking on the front runners? mark: attacking them is hard. it is hard to get a beat on them. bush has to become -- to catch up, you have to be the person. walker doesn't want case it to be the person. comedoes not want carly to into his support. have to clearich the underbrush. you cannot leave frog over five people to get to tromp. ump. john: antiestablishment lane, there is a lot of people in it. there are two dominant figures.

in the establishment lane, no one is in that lane. that gives you an incentive to take out the other guys trying to jockey for position. , i wouldscott walker be interested to clear out the brush. rump has no donors. carson has a different kind of donor. you are incredibly under pressure if you are walker or rubio. john: if your chris christie. mark: to win over undecided voters. john: and keep your donors from fleeing. mark: you have to take a hit at some of these other guys. that is where we are right now. republicans are the only one thinking about this debate. you know the democrats are also talking about donald trump as

much as they can. here is president obama at the business roundtable referring to his slogan that he thinks is so flat that he put it on a hat. isin the echo chamber that presidential politics, everything is dark and terrible, they don't seem to offer many solutions for the disasters they perceived but they are quick to tell you who to blame. i am here to say there is nothing particularly patriotic or american about talking down america. that was obama today at an event in his home in washington dc. biden gave his most salient democratic rebuttal yet to donald trump's message. biden: this isn't about

democrat and republican. it is about a sick message. ins message has been tried america many times before. we always, always, always overcome it. byk: biden may be coincidence was 60 miles away from anaheim talking at a solar powered trade show. he has gone to las vegas to do an event. hillary clinton is on the tonight show talking about the democratic debate. she has been on tromp. she even did an impression of truck. we agree that joe biden was better in taking on tromp. i assume you agree with that. what are the implications of his superior ability? john: it is no accident that you see biden doing this. at this point in his deliberations, he is showing

voters in the same way she is what it would look like if there was a general election with donald trump. part of the reason why i is more effective is that he attacks trump at the same time as projecting this optimistic vision of america. tllary clinton has been fun -- funny, but what she hasn't done is put in a larger framework of american optimism. attacksllary clinton donald trump from a democratic partisan. biden does it in a centrist message. and with a greater fingertip feel. right now sanders doesn't get into it much. it is the case that auditioning to be the one to take on donald trump is part of what democrats are looking for. ,ohn: who can i imagine better so many democrats are worried because of clinton's problems about are we going to have a candidate who can win in the fall? they are starting to make

electability considerations. mark: it looks good when biden did it. john: lots of guests coming up. trent lott. immediately, when we come back. ♪

mark: back at the reagan library. two debates tonight. the undercard candidates, then the main events, 11:00, 8:00 eastern time. the debate will go for three hours in prime time. we are going to talk about that

with two of our bloomberg politics contributors. welcome. my favorite question of all, what are you looking for? guest: i'm going to look to see if any candidates choose to go after someone we had not thought of here. they have access to more data than we have. they are seeing movement from candidate because they are doing ids out in the field. we may get a sense that they see competition where we don't expect it. you talked about the short game. they are concerned about donors and moving up in the polls. if some of these candidates are patient they make seeing -- they path forward. i could not see him getting out of iowa at 30. maybe he is happy to see donald

trump rise if it takes carson down a peg. thisn will come down to with more information than we are expecting. and where they see their competition in february. john: you are a guy on the edge of pop culture. as you wander through this media sphere what are you looking at? guest: i am fascinated by the way the crowd reacts. putting this up like it is a prizefight, and you have a bush person saying he is going to find out how tough i am and so on. this is not that crowd. hereleveland crowd was -- is a more sedate crowd. it is going to be this huge battle. trump totally played to the crowd last time and loved it. this is not necessarily trump

fighting with whoever. [inaudible] mark: you could hear a pin drop in the ballroom. crowd.he fed off the there was an excitement he got from his lines landing and getting a kick out of himself. point, this is a prizefight in some ways, you have a crowd lusting for conflict, every punch that gets thrown the crowd howells. no one is reacting. what would that do for the candidates and how do they react? aret: there are people that going to have to be kind of doing this but also keeping their dignity. here they have to fight and come across this. mark: a lot of people might be

surprised with this debate still going on. it is going to be at least 2.5 hours, maybe longer. lots has been made of coverage of the debate. happen in the first 20 minutes it doesn't matter. what do you think? guest: the hillary drivers license incident in 2000 seven which happened at the end. that was the last gasp of the news cycle. my guess is that stuff right now gets package and repackaged such that if there is a moment in any point in the debate that it will get the same exposure it would early on. and will have an interest in pushing it out. john: let me follow up. the senior advisor for president obama made the argument that the role of twitter did change the

debate now is a huge part of the 2016 debate. all that matters is moments. twitter is part of that. do you agree? that is the effect of the twitter conversation, it has changed the way debates are seeing? guest: we should think of primary debates different. theink we look back at general election debate and there was a sense that twitter was the place that obama was taking. mostly media made that happen. when you have 10 candidates or 15 people performing over the course of the night it is less binary who won or who lost. diddy said that ben carson himself well let alone one last time and yet he moved. onre has been more humility

the part of media. guest: very quick. you invented the internet. what do you think about this? guest: everything is now that brief moment. i think all it takes is one able tohere someone is segment something. they are not longer than six .econds in this world mark: we'll be right back with trent lott after this. ♪

mark: joining us now at the reagan library, former senate leader, trent lott.

thank you for joining us. were talking about his previous presidential run. what you see in him now that makes him ready to run? trent: in the 1990's he had been in the house. chairman of the budget committee. active unarmed sources -- armed forces. i did not think he was quite ready for it. he has been in the private sector. he learned a lot. being elected governor, being ohio, john kasich is the last man i had a conversation with before i spoke the bill clinton about budget deal. i think he has the whole package. he is the right age. he has the right character. he has the experience of dealing with budgets.

he is not a guy talking about what he would like to do. he has done it. i think being governor of ohio is a big state. john: those are experience points mostly. there is a character question. many knew him in the 1990's. he was impetuous, he had a hothead temper. he was a mature and now. now they see a different character and him. talk more about that. how has he changed? he was more aggressive. he was an athlete. he had strong opinions. he had discriminate on the budget process but he has matured and aged. i think he has a confidence that is very important. i feel he is ready. mark: 16 candidates in the race. i know you think hasek should be nominated. who else? trent: we have a great team. mark: what should be nominated? bush? trent: sure.

walker. he could. i like marco rubio. donald trump? don't think so. i don't think he has the right experience. i want to make america great again and all that but i have not seen any policy. i don't know what he would actually do. it is a lot of what is going in washington now. i agree with the people making profound statement in washington like ted cruz but his tactics don't work. rightve to have the philosophy, experience, policy, and ability to know how to get it done. john: those are good reasons to not support donald trump. is a guy leading by a law in the national polls. it beyond the questions of whether -- why you may not support him, what is standing in

his way of being the nominee given his strength? trent: i do think he is indicative of a stirring going on. berniehe fact that sanders is running the way he is, somebody better pay attention. like what is going on in washington. or not going on in washington. when was the last time washington did something that mattered to the future of our country? truewe are missing is leadership. men and women who know how to work together to make the system worked together for the good of the country. the fact that he is taking on the media and he gets in people's faces and if you slap him around people --. people like that. i don't think he has the experience and i don't think he knows how difficult these things are. if there were a primary held in mississippi who would win? trent: he would be very competitive. he probably would.

ted cruz has supporters in mississippi. we are well organized for john kasich read we have a congressman committed. we have the key county chairman committed. mark: hillary clinton, will she be hard to beat? trent: she will be hard to beat. she does have a certain appeal and a lot of people, democrats and women are going to realize is a historic event but i think we can beat her. the american people are not going to want a third obama term. guy john: -- how will we know if your guy did well or not well? trent: i wanted to talk about who he is. he introduced himself in america. he needs to talk about what he is going to do. i know the things he will do because he has done it. , and keeptangled up your focus, talk about yourself and what you want to do. john:

if scott walker takes a swing should he swing back? trent: i don't think scott walker will do that. i wouldn't if i were him. i have watched a lot of campaigns for you have more than two running. when two of them start shooting each other the third one benefits. i would be careful. mark: is this the craziest you've seen? trent: it is different. but we have some great men and women. i like a bunch of them. i think all things considered that case it is a man that can get the job done because he has done it before. mark: thank you. we appreciate you coming by. we'll be right back after this. ♪

john: this is the time in our sure where we would say to you sayonara. there is another half an hour starting in just a moment with a

whole new lineup of exciting guests. we will show you what it's like inside the reagan library with the executive director, after this. ♪

john: thank you for sticking around. we get ready for the second republican debate of the season. california at the ronald reagan presidential library. earlier we talk to john i bush, the library's executive director. mark: this is not the library's first rodeo. did people get sick of hosting these debates? one is bigger and bolder than all of the rest. it is good to have experienced

hands around. the number of press interested, 600 credentialed press. john: in terms of the people in the hall, more demand to get into this one? john: much more. it is a more exciting race. it just flat out is. john: everyone tries to associate themselves with ronald reagan. does that still continue to feel flattering to you? stop try think, please to appropriating the image of our guy? >> we feel good when it happens because it shows we are succeeding in our mission, which is to help the reagan legacy.

gamesrstand the drinking across america when people take a shot every time reagan's name is mentioned. tonight, we might find an inebriated america. mark: you have 11 candidates on the stage. mrs. reagan will not be here. following thisue race -- is she following this race? >> she is not going to miss a minute of the debate. she is highly plugged in to everything that is happening. john: i think people do not recognize how politically attuned she is. it was amazing how much appetite she still had four hearing -- for hearing inside stories. she reads the papers every day and follows the news all day long.

she has read their books. it is pleasing to have that happen. john: do you think there is any -- thather who thinks looks across the island things, although she would prefer a republican, some satisfaction for her seeing hillary clinton to have a woman in the oval office? republican.diehard you are picking up -- i think she feels one of her great strengths was that her husband may have been a pragmatic conservative. he knew when to cut a deal. she would like to see republican candidates show some strength in that regard. mark: i know you do not want to handicap the race. as somebody who has watched republican and national politics, talk about your

impressions about how wild the cycle has been. 2012me similarities to the race because almost the number of personalities. -- i think we will see the same dynamics. mark: so you are predicting trump is going to lose his lead? >> my prognostication is that he will lose his lead. our thanks to john. joining us now a long way from -- is jennifer jacobs. ladies, thank you for joining us. i want to ask you about the ben carson phenomenon.

talk to me about what you think the sources of carson's popularity are now. jennifer: people think he is a new phenomenon and he is not. evangelicals have been finding his books on the shelves for years. he was a pretty familiar face for them. he is a pretty known quantity and it is not like they are just discovering him for the first time. they are seeing him out on the national stage. traits, you look at his if you look at his candidate traits, what is making him so popular? not just in iowa, but even in new hampshire. katie: he is seen as somebody who is an outsider. he is like donald trump without the bad manners and abortionists.

he is gracious and he conducts himself with a lot of dignity. i have been hearing his name among grassroots types for a long time. my own parents, what do you think of ben carson? they have watched him on conservative news channels and they have been interested in this guy. he is getting a second wind. mark: we just talked about the evangelical community in iowa. it has been curious that donald trump has done as well as he has been doing. when mark and i talked to him on our show about the bible, he gave some answers that got a lot of attention. it seems like he was being evasive. is callingicity is card. on religion, it might not be quite as authentic. our evangelicals starting to notice that?

jennifer: it does matter. people would say, we are not so sure about what his faith is, how spiritual he is. we really think he is a strong businessman and we think the world is on fire and he can put out those fires. it is in the back of their minds. evangelicals with because he is strong with everyone. mark: if there is a campaign and , if you werecrisis meeting with him an hour before the debate, what would you tell him he has to do? ofie: he is under a lot pressure to make a move tonight and do something to stand out. in the last debate, he performed fine. he did not throw up all over himself. he did not do anything to

distinguish himself. i think donors are looking for that right now. a little bit of a disappointment that he has not followed up those early performance with the same kind of dynamic performance. mark: any metric by which he could perform tonight that would matter to donors and activists? tough and theery challenge for a campaign like gilmore,ampaign like all he has to do is be able to charge a plane ticket. the walker campaign has built an infrastructure. i think it is a very tough -- tonight is a tough night for him. it remains to be seen. john: i know you have talked a lot about immigration. you got donald trump with a very

particular kind of vestige on immigration. the party has veered very sharply to the right. scott walker talking about building a wall between the u.s. and canada. talking about tracking immigrants like they are fedex packages. -- staking out ground and saying, this is all wrong for the party. you win without message? -- with that message? katie: we did some extensive research. reasonablet a approach that secures the borders. the people that are driving hard , they are fishing from a very small pond. the problem with that group of people, that is not where the country is. it is a losing general election

proposition. our candidates need to find that reasonable approach. mark: you and i have had a running dialogue about carly fiorina. it is only of late that she has gotten a bump in the polls. what is your sense of her standing in iowa? has she crossed the threshold where she could be someone who would finish in the top three? jennifer: she is just not coming up in the polls as much as you would think. coverage she has gotten for saying the establishment is trying to keep me out of this debate, she used that to propel herself forward. if after this, we do not see her numbers going up, i am not sure they will. ben carson is so much higher than she is. if you were working with

, doesfiorina right now she have to attack donald trump? is there some way in which she could win tonight without getting into a fight? stand -- she has to katie: she has to stand her ground. she needs to find a spot where she is just not the female candidate. she is right on the precipice of this. mark: thank you both. we appreciate you both joining us. deputy campaign manager will join us. ♪

john: joining us now is carly fiorina errors deputy -- carly

fiorina's deputy campaign manager. carlyody is talking about trump. -- donald you have three options, punch them in the face, punch him in the face but only if he punches you in the face first, or ignore him entirely. >> she sees this as an opportunity to introduce herself. it would not be a great introduction if all we are doing is talking about donald trump. i think you will see them shake it up a little bit. carly has a lot to say on her own. mark: what is something that has happened to her of late that gives you a feeling that she is better known and has a better chance of being elected? sarah: facebook messages from people i have not talked to since high school. my -- myow i measure

date to junior prom sent me a facebook message. harp ondo not mean to the trump thing. when he commented on carly fiorina's looks, she had some strong things to say. you guys made a compelling video responding to that. was she personally offended and upset? or did she look at it and think, here is an opportunity to score some points. sarah: certainly not the former. when she found out about it, she laughed. she has been called far worse. she tells great stories on the trail about one of her first client meetings being at a strip club, being called a bimbo, other words that start with b. john: could you give me some examples?

of fuzzy lines between campaigns and super pac's. your operation has a close relationship between the campaign and the super pac. are you would hearing to the spirit of the law? sarah: yes. of course. i challenge the premise of your question. carly for america has been great, they show up at events. the law says we cannot coordinate with them, and we don't. there is a straight line. mark: when they show up at your events, or their lawyers looking at every bit of your activity? with success comes scrutiny. other campaign say you guys are coordinating way too closely.

sarah: i am a lawyer myself and i've not heard any lawyers say there is anything wrong with carly for america staff showing up to events publicly out there on the schedule. you guys have our schedule, it is a google calendar. this idea that we are committing because people wish that -- this idea that we are coordinating because people wish that we were courted needing -- coordinating. do you see other activities that give you pause? sarah: i do not go to that many other campaign events. clips, i care deeply about carly. john: there is news this week that the company that carly used to run, hewlett-packard, there is a huge round of playoffs happening. had to fire a bunch

of people, saying, i am still cleaning up the mess i inherited at hp. you guys know that more scrutiny is coming. how much of a problem going forward does that seem to you? not just that she had to answer for what she did, but for the fact that the company is still in so much trouble? sarah: laying off people is the hardest decision any ceo or boss wants to make -- has to make. iam not sure make -- understand why meg whitman wants to spread some of the blame around. as far as carly is concerned, tom kerr pins -- tom perkins came out with a full-page ad in the new york times saying she was right, i was wrong.

hp survived. doing quite well, all things considered, given what happened. that is a great record to run on. john: does carly think of meg whitman as a friend? mark: what accounts for the success right now with voters of dr. ben carson? sarah: carly and dr. carson are good friends as well. peoplehe same thing that tell you in focus groups. he seems like a nice, authentic guy. politicians promise things and they do the washington to stop, as -- two-step, as harrison ford said. they are looking at the different outsiders and thinking

who actually can win this job and do this job. i think carly is the best person for that. john: is she feeling pressure tonight? -- she managed to lobby her way in. she lobbied actively and improve her performance to get on the stage. is she a lot more nervous tonight? sarah: i came from the trailer. and readya great mood to go. she is excited. this is an opportunity to introduce herself to a lot of new folks. it is a huge opportunity. she has been on big stages before. mark: the chino president reagan? -- did she know president reagan? i don't know.

we were here last month and she gave a great foreign policy speech on china. we have met the reagan library staff and they have been so generous. over and beyond the call of duty. john: have you heard from anybody prominent in the world? sarah: she gets a lot of advice. i'm trying to think if anyone -- she is pretty generous handing out her cell phone number. particularly in iowa and new hampshire. i would have to ask her if there has been anyone in particular. old friends, new friends, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. mark: i was hoping gloria steinem called her. she -- sarah: donald trump has been a very successful

as an entertainer. his business record leaves something to be desired. it is a business he has chosen. sarah: if he had invested the money in 1992, he would have more money. a reporter said so. he has been through bankruptcy four times. his companies, not him personally. john: thank you for spending this time with us. good luck tonight. mark: go back to the trailer. john: we will be right back after this. ♪

mark: welcome back to simi valley. in about two hours, the

primetime debate, a very big deal. john, your overall take on what you are looking for? thingthe most obvious people are going to watch is trump, trump, trump, trump. i want to see whether one of those guys, i want to know if we will look up and say, one of those guys was the dominant establishment candidate. mark: i think dominant is just showing who you are. i am watching to see how much the moderators focus on trunk. -- on trump. how big is carson tonight? john: i am looking at chris christie, walker, and paul. all candidates who could be out of the race before iowa. 8:00 eastern time, the

big debate. it will be a long one. john: do your popcorn. ♪

john: that is it. the end. we have come to it. for those of you keeping score, tomorrow, we have former romney adviser. he will be on the show. make sure you go to bloombergpolitics.com. we will recap the primetime debate that is starting in a couple of hours. surveillance.p, until tomorrow, we say, thank

you for watching. ♪

>> this is a special global edition of bloomberg surveillance in prime time. from new york, here are tom keene and michael mckee. tom cole and good evening, everyone. dayre here in a beautiful north of new york city for one of our most anticipated events in the history of bloomberg surveillance. this is 114 acres north of new york city. michael: