>> u.s. data, it doesn't support the case for a hike. >> billionaire patrick trophy is said to have agreed for a deal to buy america's cablevision. >> welcome to countdown. >> wanted the program. 6:00 in the morning, let's start

with the most important fed meeting in decades. >> no one thinks a quarter-point move will affect the economy. neither do they know the psychological impact will input the change in direction. effectivelyte is zero. with unemployment, consumer spending, and business the chinese equity bubble has collapsed. another big drop in oil prices convinces many investors it will be better to hold off. that would give the fed an opportunity to assess the prospects of growth ahead. no matter what they decide, the announcement will be complicated. they will release an economic forecast and a new plot.

what do they say? within hours of press conference in october? if they go, why and how will be a strategy be? and everybody wants the answer to the next question -- what do they do next question mark michael mckee --what do they do next? what are the applications, the u.s. close yesterday, relatively benign compared to the magnitude would be happening. we saw a positive session yesterday, at the moment, we are at a 33% chance that the fed hikes rates. anna: we did the survey of economists, almost an even split between those who think they will move and those who think they will stay. a few people going for smaller than 25 basis points, u.s. markets have been propped up by the falling oil prices yesterday. also spilling over from europe yesterday. guy: you may have or that still to come, talking about that more

later. let's find out what the story is in asia. shery ahn standing by ahead of the fed. shery: stocks are rising across the board in asia ahead of that fed decision. nursing japan and australia leading the gains. japan rising 1.3%, of course we had the trade deadline earlier this morning showing that export growth has slowed for a second consecutive month. but we are seeing lower volumes in the -- and that is surprising that investors are saying on the sidelines ahead of that decision. rising 1.3%, we're hearing that is halted due to a technical glitch in investors unable to trade futures. the shanghai composite rising half a percent, we have seen wide price swings in the morning stocks. gains, we are%

seeing incredible volatility -- chinese stocks the highest since 1997. gaining 8/10 of 1%. rising more than 2% from a gained at one point -- it gained at one point more than it hasn't two years. we saw a surge in oil prices, malaysia being asia's largest exporter, they have seen the benefit of those arriving prices. threenggit again for consecutive sessions, we are seeing it weakening slightly. down for tenths of a percent -- down 4/10s of a percent. these two currencies have the most ahead of that fed rate hike. we are seeing morgan stanley saying though the ringgit is the most attractive emerging market currency. back to you guys. guy: that you very much, indeed.

with a story out of asia. anna: sticking with asia, we have a rate decision from indonesia. later on in this morning, sometime after 2 p.m. local time. we will get a rate decision there. a good illustration really of the decision-making that is going on around the world by central bankers in countries where the currency boost has been moved around considerably, partly by what is happened in china as of late. we'll get a rate decision from them, that comes before the feds. the most of economists are not expected to change. time.:30 a.m. u.k. we watched that decision later on, we will break in on that, and of course 7:00 p.m. u.k. time -- it is the fed. jugglingking about the the emerging markets are having to do in interest rates, the world economy is about to be stress tested. are we about see the first tightening of the u.s. monetary

policy and was a decade? it was a challenge for a global economy already affected by slowing chinese demand and volatility in financial markets. our chief agent economics correspondent joins us live now from hong kong. given talking about this for months, it seems. the emerging market impact, what is the impact in asia? what is quite mean -- what is this going to mean? debates.e are two on the one side, people say the asian economy is very different now to the last tightening cycle a decade ago. it is decoupled to some extent from the u.s. -- what is happening in china matters more. it is the view that what happens in america is much more important. at least on the same scale a decade ago. there is also the contrarian view that no one will matter, because it will drive up the cost of borrowing asia.

it will most likely draw it down, the local currency. in the cost could spark capital outflows. it is a mark of volatility, and while that cap does not quite call it a crisis, there will be turmoil. we will not know for sure. guy: in terms of breaking it down, clearly, you can look at key metrics -- current account, metrics, etc.. on a sliding scale, who was on the top or bottom when it comes to countries? has been thing that most volatile are indonesia in asia. this comes back to original sin. what these two countries have been doing for example is borrowing significantly amounts of hard currency -- u.s. dollars. when you do that, you allow the currency to depreciate. you are faced with rising borrowing costs, and it's hard to service the debt. ofse countries are seeing

our ability, it could trigger capital outflows from malaysia, as well. those are two to watch asia. anna: where does this leave china? enda: china is a curious one. it is far and away the biggest economy, but analysts say it is in good order. a federate hike for sure, that is because with the pressure on and aan, they have three half trillion in reserves. and there is the issue of local currency denominated debt. china did have a significant volume on the debt. but there is a feeling that they can manage that, it is not on the same scale in terms of malaysia. the overall sense is that china can handle a fed tightening. anna: thank you, joining us there from hong kong. guy: as the fed prepares to move an expert says he

does not see the argument for a hike. he spoke to bloomberg's mike mckee. >> i don't care whether they raise 25 basis points, or they lose among the curve. i don't see the reason for, friendly. i was watching the incredible bubble happened. it was an asset bubble. it was financed on a lot of debt. it was an obvious bubble. but they just gave attention to the gdp gap and missed the entire bubble. we had an economic collapse. and now we have a situation where he are in the mid-part of the cycle, and they are trying to identify where the inflation is. they're worried about, and we have a lot of liquidity around. when i look at this, there are little glimmers here and there. there are always glimmers of something. but basically, i think they are worried too much about the short-term debt cycle and not the long-term. i do not get it.

given those asymmetrical risks, look at the world. where should we be -- we're in a world economy. tony the countries outside the should be tightening monetary policy. ray does not care if the fed raises or does not. that is our twitter question of the day. we are all getting very excited about this. if they deliver the rate hike today. anna: that is where you find us on twitter, if you want to get in touch with us. talk to a man who cares. i don't know if he cares because he is paid to care, or because he deeply cares. good morning to you. what are you expecting from the fed, remind us. >> i think it probably will raise rates. it is a tortuous decision at this point. the two camps, the arguments in favor or against do not meet in

the middle. if you are waiting for inflation going up, then we have to raise rates. we will be waiting for years. and if you think that the economy does not need zero interest rate as we approach full employment, economic growth sort of trembling along. then of course they should raise rates. and i think that everyone draws a line. whether they go this month or next month or december, i think they have decided that they would like to go if everything is ok. and, you know, what about going now. please. anna: save me. guy: we ought to do this again in december. the markets are not ready. kit: and they never will be. in a sense, preparing the market started in 2013. and we prepare them, to some degree of repair them. he is right in the sense that, i don't know, the gap between two-year interest rates and overnight interest rates is

smaller than it has been before the start of a rate cycle, i think definitely since i started doing this. guy: not very long ago. kit: not at all. that is where you see the rate cycle not disclose, which make you nervous. i don't know that we will be more prepared next time, if we delay again now. anna: if you don't go because the markets, they said they're not ready, does it raise questions about guessing the policy? of course the fed needs to be cognizant of not creating turmoil in the market. but on the other hand, they have to make moves based on the data. the markets have to look after themselves. kit: i'm not sure the fed worries about that. there is an argument that says we decided to wait because there is turmoil in china. we do not want financial volatility. we want to send a message we're going soon. ane, but there is inflationary problem to worry about. so why not?

the issue is what you going to do? whether we gain by waiting, in that sense. anna: kit, regular much. guy: two into bloomberg -- anna: never tune out. uy: yes, she mexico point. -she makes a good point. we look for to the coverage. anna: it will take a short break here on "drcountdonw." wn."? what does that mean for the future of broadband cable, the full story coming. guy: the president of the base got a little personal as the top 11 candidates -- 11 candidates yes. celebrity real estate mobile and

current front runner getting a bit of a hike, donald trump found himself centerstage. and the uproar that went around it. >> we do not need an apprentice in the white house. we have one right now. he told us all the things you want to hear back in 2008. we do not know who you are or where you're going. need someone who can actually get the job done. ♪

>> i do believe that the fed is not going to hike interest rates in september. but there will be a rate hike in september. they will not wait for next year. they are getting the best possible solution. the matter what they do, no one is saying they will discover something entirely new. >> i have a lot of trouble with this idea, let's do it now and hold our breath and leave everyone behind. if you really do not know that you have room to raise it for a while, why are you starting up?

>> is a domestic case for raising rates is solid. it has been for a while. they should have moved when both domestic and international elements were aligned. >> the question is, are the conditions in the u.s. economy, in terms of the objective of inflation and unemployment, such that an increase make sense. that is the only criteria the matters. >> there is going to be high opinions of why, above the unit is it's getting much bigger. >> is about getting started, if they think there is would be a series of hikes. the u.s. economy is anything in normal shape, 25 basis points one way or the other should not matter much. >> is more likely they raise rates by 25 basis points. if they do not, then the narrative is important. >> addressing the to do a trickle out narrative because they want to start raising them. it would be poor judgment.

>> if things go badly the rest of the world, they wanted to buy here. in that case, i think that would be a reason to push it into 2016. guy: that is our coverage coming up. if you take anything away from those people talking, it is that nobody really has a clue what is going on. even if one of them doesn't clue, we do not know which one it is yet. anna: i think people feel internally conflicted. that is bring you -- let us bring you other stories we are watching today. guy: in fact, let's go back to the fed. we are of course awaiting the federal rate decision thereon. some would say it is the most important decision and years. race chance that they will race later today. stay with bloomberg. janet yellen takes the podium a

half hour after that. carney signals there's a chance the bank of england may raise rates in early 2016. if the economy continues to grow and inflation pressures continue. >> my view is that if the economy is consistent with his forecast, the decision for me is that it will come into sharp relief by the end of the year. anna: those comments came in an address to lawmakers in london. guyl three people are known to have died in 8.3 magnitude that struck the north of chilly overnight. -- that struck the north of chile overnight. the government is addressing the damage, warning of potential strong aftershock. anna: upping the ante in america, the cable operator has reached a deal to buy cablevision. one of the top u.s. providers

for nearly $18 billion. let us get to caroline hyde. caroline: it could be announced as soon as today. the 52-year-old billionaire, one of the wealthiest in the world, is going across the atlantic once again. , what they are paying up for cablevision -- a 22% premium. they're getting their hands on the top five cable providers in the united states. the value, including debt, a cool $70.7 billion. no wonder the shares spiked after hours, and moved higher in terms of the share price. coming along really rather nicely, up we go some 17.7 or send. let us have a look at why they are buying up cablevision. why are they going across the atlantic? million video subscribers, interestingly, back to may that is when we have the first foray into the united

states. users.ht 1.1 million that was a deal of $9 billion. these are small fish when you compare them to the juggernauts they are currently facing. directv, 20 million users. compared to the 3 million patrick drawdy will have. the matter how big you are, intimidation is the same. why are they drawing together? because of competition, because of netflix coming into the party. tv, thisf amazon fire is all disrupting viewing habits. driving the consolidation of the moment, because last quarter of the second quarter, cable and satellite tv had his worst subscriber loss ever. they are suddenly having the revenues and subscriber freeze under th reats.

as we the second-biggest media deal of the year, the 17.7 million. billion. across the media section, the big deal is the tussle over time warner. patrick was in that fray as well. getting in the mix and stirring things up ans well, who johnson? umps in? also, he bought bright house -- the consolidation company. patrick just stirring it up in the u.s.. anna: thank you very much. juckes, what would you ask janet yellen? question is the very much what is the objective

of monetary policy when you are 30 from here? starting from here? i think it is not does the economy need a rate rise? is it different when the economy is at zero? rates up a bit, is at the same as raising it from 2% or 2.25%? had forquestions i've the last three years have been framed in my mind around that. the economy does not need rates this low. once you solve that, what then? what is that mean? anna: whatever reason, we don't know what will happen between now and october. ifhe next move is not a rate rise. it is some sort of quantitative easing/ . that they have to use just qe. kit: i can see it happening.

i don't think we are there yet. that year the u.k., we are probably closer to it. we are probably over the peak of the cycle. a lot of people would argue that, do not raise rates just to give yourself room to cut. you can miss a whole rate cycle, in terms of leading rates so low, it has caused bubbles in one form or another. the china bubble, the commodity bubble. if other terms you want to use describing. they inflate and deflate themselves. deflate, you do not raise rates. but what happens on the other side? there is a point where you have missed the opportunity to raise rates/ . and that raises questions about what you did to the current answer of qe. and you have guests coming in talking about -- anna: whether it will help as much as last time.

guy: carney yesterday talking about the beginning of next year. how contingent are other central banks will happen today? and listening to carney, there are a lot of people who would argue that they do not want to go that far. while we debate the fed rate, the employment rate goes down 1% every year. and wage growth floats around 2% without growing anywhere -- without going anywhere. and frankly, we ought to get on with it and raise rates. anna: kit, thank you very much. he stays with us. we're talking about central banks. guy: we have other central banks to talk about today. will it move? we will preview the decision, being overshadowed by the fed, i think they have a slightly prettier building.

we'll talk about that in a moment. ♪

>> the secret of monetary policy, the federal reserve officials keep saying it is important to keep inflation expectations will anchor. but if you ask them how do you measure inflation equitation, they will shrug their shoulders. >> we deftly have ample cash. i think what you're seeing right now is that when things get tough are gone is the for us. we have great strength, great balance sheets. and typically when there are challenges, we actually gain market share. while we do not want to see that, it tends to be good for us. as the violations may become more rational as we move on. >> the ship now needs to move.

toward the fiscal side. government action, deregulation, tax reform, infrastructure investment these are big things in it happen that have not happened because everybody legally relied on the fed. guy: some of our guests weighing andn what they anticipate think should happen when it comes to the fed. anna: it is 6:31 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. guy: twig a few hours away now from the most closely watched federal reserve decision years. a 33% chance they will raise rates when the meeting ends later today. stay with bloomberg for full coverage. janet yellen takes the podium a half hour after that. mark sayingoing whe

he may raise rates the economy continues to grow. >> my view is that if the economy follows and is consistent with the forecast, the decision to me will come into sharper relief around the turn of the year. three people know to a dive in an earthquake that struck chile. this was triggered by an earthquake. the president is assessing the damage and is warning of strong aftershocks. anna: the federal reserve is not the only bank with a decision today. the swiss national bank also announcing its decision at a: 30. ul gordon joins us for a decision. economists overwhelmingly see no change in rates. is there any room for debate on this, coming just before the fed rate decision?

paul: there is always room. but as you know, not of the economists we spoke to our forecasting any change in rates today. the swiss economy proving more robust than might have been expected after that surprise end to the swiss franc cap. weakeningswiss franc lately. cannot support growth going forward. that said, there is concern about inflation always. that would be the biggest drop in six decades. as we go forward, there is a risk today we will see the national bank cut the inflation forecast even further. as deftly want to watch. guy: how much room for maneuver do they have at the moment? bank the swiss national president said earlier this month that there is still room to cut rates, the deposit rate has not reached its absolute bottom. so there is further to go.

economists saying 1.25% -- -1.25% would be more like it. what you do get into it would be the situation of not putting your money in the bank with a negative deposit rate. you end up with cash hoarding. and that can be a drag on the economy. if it does go any lower or beyond, you do need to probably put some mechanisms to stop that hoarding of gas. but there is room. there is untested territory. anna: paul gordon joining us from zurich. 8:30, kevin adams here for the next hour. he is head of fixed income. average waterray saying he really doesn't care if they raise rates today. 25 and 0.in between

i think the markets care. deal tohat is not a big the economy. but they do move up, it will be gradually higher. that is what they want to do to normalize rates. whether it is this month or next month, it is really matter that much to the economy. : we will fixate of course, kevin, on the decision. itself going,ber, where you are a lot might depend on any commentary that goes around it. what are we looking for, signals as to how this changes things into the future? lot on whatpends a they decide today, whether the commentary will change. my view, if they do not raise rates today, what's with messaging to they give about the prospect of rate rises in october or later this year?

i think the idea that they haven't yet, the markets have not fully discounted the rate rise today is good be quite powerful. in that way, i think they will not raise rates. anna: you think october? kevin: exactly, yeah. thinks terminal rates are kind of here. the fed thinks they are probably up your. why the gap? kit: if you are thinking about it tactically, the gap could come down. guy: which is a policy tool. kit: but if they start to drift lower, everyone has lowered their view. part of the issue in this cycle is that wherever you see mutual rates, terminal rates are going to be below that. late,ycle, starting this we are all rethinking it

relative to the metrics of where the peak level of rates rose for nominal gdp. we are not going to get that. 30 from today, i don't think you can get there. it stretches out far longer than i can imagine. so, having the market pricing below that, gradually having gotten used to that, i think it does to the fed room to reinforce this gradual message about race -- they are not going to go fast, far, rock the boat. if they raise rates today, they probably won't do anything with that right now. but it is something in their back pocket. guy: kevin> ? is around 1%.p and the risk of that now, at some stage in the next two or three meetings, there is likely to be some narrowing of the gap. and that is a really useful policy tool they have in their

back pocket. guy: a lot of as conferences and events scheduled over the next weeks. anna: this history teach us anything useful here? otherg back at situations, does a cloud the decision-making even more? morgan stanley was saying if rates go up today, the fed be getting lessons from 1994. is that something you have been looking back to? kit: i spend way too much time looking back. when i started doing this for a living, i thought we would debate whether the lowest level or -.25.was minus one definitely, 1994 was the last time the market had the closest to this in terms of how narrow the gap was between two-year yields and fed funds going into the first type. and it was very bloody for the next several months.

but on the other hand, we do not have a paper transfer. instantly different. i only have this one fo olish notion that the only thing that happened after they raised rates was that it went down. that doesn't mean that it will happen now. but that is the one thing i can find in my mind that is always happen. guy: is this useful? last time, we were going into a rate cycle, everything was very different. everything was much more normal. kit, to the point you made earlier on, we are moving from a very low rate to what could be described as a normal rate. is that jump bigger than kind of quarter?two and been in thate environment so long, it is quite easy to forget that it is quite amount of money

flowing to the system in the last two years. ining away from that, albeit a very slow moves, it is completely different from 2.5% to 4% in interest rates. it is completely different. i guess you work with people who do not remember the rates. a steep learning curve. guy: do you think that it will work this time around? kit: yes. guy: kevin, what you think the right trade is? kevin: of the next three or four months -- guy: this is over the last couple of years. you will be buying it up to -- evin: away from where it is, the interest rate complex has not praised a rate rise

today. but the two-year yield has. and i think part of the interest rate rising will probably be slowing then what the is pricing. on that basis, you need to get a -- anna: that is dependent on whether they move today or. december kevin: i'm not sure the curve trade is depending on the timing. kit: if you find yourself 50 arategist traders, this is nonconsensual ones, a lot of people have this in their life. that is to say that after a such peoplewait, are want to put investment strategies on? chapters closing in market history? on trades and investment positions, will they get taken off as we react to that?

anna: why are you feeling nonconsensual, kevin? kevin: because that is what you can to make money. [laughter] is: to go deeper, your view that the fed needs to adjust -- they are missing, i'm referencing the banks earlier in the conversation. rates are going to remain low for relative to history, low for a long. of time. that, italy bes some you can put on. kevin: they can be priced into the long end of the market. a lot of that is pricing to the front end. we think it needs to go into the backend market. and that is ultimately the rates will not be going to whatever the neutral might have been. but it is priced into the market back at this point. kit forank you, getting up so early.

kevin will stay with us longer. guy: another one making headlines in the u.s., the republican president of candidates attacking each other last night. mostly just attacked donald trump. the showdown quickly descended into some would say control chaos, someone say non-controlled chaos. it seems to be the movement, let's have a listen. >> we do not need an apprentice in the white house. we have one right now. you told us all the things we wanted to hear in 2008. we do not know who you are, where you're going. we need someone who can get the job done. anna: for more, let's bring in our international correspondent and former white house correspondent, hans nichols. the morning to you. did everyone achieve what they set out? hans: in some ways, they did. that is why scoring is so

difficult. everyone threw punches, a few took punches. donald punch is an effective counterpunch or. i will speak entirely in boxing metaphors for the duration of the segment. and mr. jeb bush, when he attacked mr. trump, he seemed to land one of the strongest blows. the one guy that had some special interest that i know of, that try to get me to change my views on something that was generous and give the money, was donald trump. he wanted casino gambling in florida. donald trump: yes you did. you wanted it. donald trump: if i wanted it, i would've gotten it. i promise. jeb bush: no way. hans: you can hear some of the applause lines in there. that is because there was more subdued audience in ohio. this was in the reagan president library, which was a much more

at midfield. the audience was instructed not to applaud. there was some back-and-forth, fiorina, andcarly felt the chris christie -- not exactly a peacemaker to try to bring the debate and the conversation back to policy. have a listen. listen.ristie: carly, you cannot and interrupt me. we do not want to hear about your careers. back and forth about who did well in poorly. you are both successful people. congratulations. you know who is not successful? the middle class, getting plowed over by barack obama and hillary clinton. let us stop this childish back-and-forth between the two of you. one winner in all this, it could be seen in. when you look at the ratings, everyone was expecting cnn to hit those numbers.

they may be the biggest winners in all this. guys questios? guy: what generated the most interest? hans: the washington post had a story on the google searches. the second highest story was when he mentioned his hispanic wife, and he asked mr. trump to apologize to his mexican-born white. now american citizen. trump did not. fiorina talked about her daughter, her doctor daughter who passed away. that also got a huge spike. there is a lot of back-and-forth on planned parenthood. most of the candidates are calling for the shutdown of the government if the u.s. government does not have some sort of the funding of planned parenthood. that means i will likely be up there explaining all this to you guys at the end of the month, early october, if we do reach yet another year and a fiscal crisis in state. where republicans try to refuse to fund the government. anna: that sounds tempting,

hans. it is tempting to see how things get personal. former white house correspondent. guy: there to bring you a special report later today on the fed. the decision is at 7 p.m. that is u.k. time. janet yellen take the podium 30 minutes earlier. anna: do you care if the fed raises rates? you can find us on twitter. we will be back in a few minutes.

guy: 6:50 in london. these are the stories you need to know this morning. anna: hours away from the most watch federal reserve decision in years. a 30% chance the fed will raise rates, when it meets. the rate decision comes at 7 p.m. u.k. time podium 30 mins

after. guy: buying cablevision in a $17 billion deal, that is according to people knowledgeable about the deal. the deal reportedly values cablevision had $34.90 a share. a 22% premium over last night's closing price. anna: at least three people have died in a .3 magnitude earthquake that start chile last night. waves triggered by the qu ake wash ashore. the government is assessing the damage and is warning of the potential for strong aftershocks. guy: now the annual square mile relay, where teams across the city of london will compete by raising the square mile. let us welcome the ceo of the event, the organizer of benchmark sports, nick keller. . this is a competitive event. walk us through how competitive

it is. we're going to be focusing on the fed at this time. there we some guys out there -- nick: i think they are focusing elsewhere, on their trainers. it will start at 6:45, just after rush hour is over. we had this unique position of running a race midweek right in the heart of london. and it is indeed at the very top level, those top few teams will be around 115 teams competing today. at the very top level, it is quite competitive. they wind their way to the streets of london, upstairs and through buildings. it is a unique one-mile course and very challenging. anna: include stairs, it is an all-in-one. behind it.piration comes from a run these do is go. also that charity were you see them running around the quad

doing some pushing and shoving. there will be a little bit of that top and. but also a surreal sense of community that really does bring the city together. you will see a lot of teams having great fun, everyone can run a mile. the opportunity for some of the faster runners, some of the not so active members of your team and your staff come together to run. guy: in terms of the charity aspect to all of this, give us a sense of the money raised -- where he goes and what happens? ck: we have raise around 85,000 pounds. and the winning team gets to choose where they donate the money. so they will get a check of 5000 pounds to donate a check to the charity of their choice. and there will be a lot of promoting of the great causes the go on as well. reputations are gained or lost. who has the most to lose? nick: we always see strong cup edition. but barclays 14 times the last

eight years. there always there with legal in general competing well. asthe bank always does well, we moved overseas and run the races in singapore hong kong, they have one above the cities. guy: to see you. looking forward to the event. i'm sure to get people will be turning out. we look forward to seeing exactly who has one. won. where would you rather be tonight? in front of your trading screen or running this race? kit: in terms of health, running the race. in terms of work -- [laughter] anna: we have other interest-rate decisions coming. we talked a bit about the snb deciding, no one is going to move before the fed? kit: i don't think so.

other central banks are not going to move, as far as we can see. in developed markets and central banks, as carney was saying yesterday, that is when he gets on his radar. guy: i'm with the shift gears seamlessly. i want to talk about some and it does not have any year's, or just one. we're joined by tim from digital. tim, we are going to talk about cars. the frankfurt car show this week, tesla, i remember talking to elon musk, he said europe should like them more than united states. : it's funny, i saw someone commenting on facebook on the story. if it looks like a plymouth. not necessarily a comment. anna: is that what they don't like?

size. tim: in norway, there is the popular car -- the vw golf. it seems like what tesla is doing a marketing, heavy marketing in the u.s. and china which is a big growing market. but not so much in europe. if you look at the city of london, tesla does not have any chargers in the city. -- maybe fewer than a dozen guy: i drove a tesla around london once. it made it difficult. nevertheless, it is a really big car. you do not appreciate it until you get into it and wind your way around london. it is a privately difficult. tim: that is right. the smaller model? guy": they are producing other models. the four by four, as well

. anna is on it. we'll take a break. news of the top of the hour. we will see you in a moment.

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anna: countdown to the fed. the fomc decides whether to hike rate for the first time since 2006. guy: a warning from the market. goldman sachs lowered bridgwater's rate, saying u.s. data doesn't support the case for a hike. anna: and looking west. patrick druggie has agreed to a $70.7 billion deal to buy cablevision. guy: welcome to "countdown." anna: it has finally arrived. guy: the day is finally here. f-day, as some people are calling it.

someone say the most important decision coming out of the federal reserve in decades -- will they finally raise rates? let's talk a little bit about this with mike mckee. one thinks a quarter-point move will affect the u.s. economy, but neither do they know the psychological impact of a change in direction. after almost seven years with rate that effectively zero, and unemployment at 5.1%, consumer spending and business investment, the case for a rate movement is soon set. china's equity bubble collapse, volatility and another drop in oil prices convinced many investors it be better to hold off. ant would give the fed opportunity to assess the effects of those developments on the prospect for roads ahead. today, that debate moves from the trading floor to the fed conference room. no matter what they decided, the announcement will be complicated. they will release new economic

forecast and a new. plot. if they hold off, what do they say? today announce a press conference? if they go, why and how? investors will want the exit strategy and a good explanation. and everybody wants the answer to the next question -- what do they do next? michael mckee, bloomberg. our: that sets up conversation very nicely and we'll return to it in a moment. breaking news around consolidation in the cable sector. let's get to caroline hyde. we will: as expected, indeed see the european cable operator buying up cablevision in the united states. it will make the fourth biggest u.s. cable provider. tag, meeting price that total enterprise value will be $17.7 billion, including debt.

they say they will deliver $34.90. patrick druggie is paying up in cash for cablevision. transaction will close in the first half of 2016. overall they will be using $3.3 billion of cash to finance the deal and $14.5 billion of new and existing debt. this is a leverage deal overall. the transaction will be financed at $3.3 billion in cash. as usual, loading it up to the acquisition company. the finance commitments come from j.p. morgan, barclays stumping up the money. let's take a look at what happened to shares. we did see this by cap an earlier. we know this deal had been on the cost after hours trading, spiking 17%.

we will see how it fares on the open this morning. anna: thank you very much. guy: let's talk about what is next. what's next is of course the fed. u.s. markets yesterday closed in benign fashion around 8/10 of 1%, as you can see. in terms of what we are expecting today, let me give you an early indication -- this is how european stocks are expected higher,-- 4/10 of 1% the dax opening five tens of 1% higher. we are in wait and see mode. i wouldn't expect too many aggressive traits. we are trading around $50 a barrel in the oil trade. but let's talk about asia. anna: oil prices pushed energy-related companies higher in the u.s. session, and some of it is being picked up in the asian session, albeit in a federal holding pattern. let's get to shery ahn with the details. shery: we are seeing that

positive sentiment here in asia. we are seeing shares rise across the board. markets are up, all of the green. we are saying that markets already closed in asia. japan let the gains, up 1.4%, but volumes are low given that investors are on the sidelines, waiting to see whether the fed will hike rates. we are also seeing it trades out of japan -- extra growth slows for the second consecutive month. the shanghai composite rose 1.3%. it was a negative territory most of the morning but we saw some ride price swings of around 3%. is shanghai composite currently rising, the hang seng also gaining, the volatility highest since 1987. in australia, we had the afx 24 -- asx 24 halting because of a technical glitch. moreroducers are rising

than 50%, the biggest gain in seven years. we haven't seen that in quite some time, boasting as much as 19%. that boost is also helping malaysia, the largest oil exporter, now rising more than 2% of one point, the most in more than two years. malaysia has been badly hit by the commodities rout, especially with the ringgit falling to 17 year lows. in gained for the last three sessions. the indonesia rupiah has also been hit, but we are still seeing some strength, morgan stanley saying that the ringgit and the rupiah are the most attractive in emerging markets, and that they don't expect the crisis we saw back in 1997, with these developing markets. back to you. anna: thank you very much. guy: as the fed prepares to move

the $140the founder of billion hedge fund bridgewater does not see the argument for a hike. he spoke to tom keene and mike mckee. >> i don't care whether they points, but i don't see the reason for it. 2007, i was watching this incredible bubble. an asset bubble, of finance on a lot of debt, an obvious bubble. the fed didn't just give attention and they missed it. we had an economic collapse. now we have a situation where we are in the mid-part of the cycle. they are trying to identify where the inflation is and what they are worried about -- we have a lot of liquidity. when i look at this, there are little glimmers of something, but basically, i think they are worried too much about the

short-term and not enough about the long-term debt cycle. i don't get it, given those asymmetrical risks. look at the world. we are in a world economy. tell me how many countries -- they should all be using monetary policy. with kevyn adams is still us, the director of fixed income. a don't get it, says ray de lio. he was saying there were two schools of thought around this fed rate decision and they just don't meet in the middle. you just can't find any consensus. >> if you look at the inflation metric that the fed is focused on, core pc, that is 1.2 percent, absolutely flatlining, and it has been. on the face of it, there is no inflationary pressure coming through. --terday there was a fall

guy: now they are talking about hiking rates. kevin: that the fed should be forward-looking, they should be trying to assess what will happen in the next 12 to 18 months and the labor market has tightened. there are some small, admittedly, signs of rises and wages. so the fed is really torn between current inflation data -- no reason to raise rates -- atential for inflation -- least moving from a zero. they are caught in this difficult position. that is one of the reasons i think they will delay today, because it is such a difficult decision. guy: this is the u.s. curve. out.is twos all the way you also say this is mispriced. kevin: absolutely.

we don't think there is enough risk premium to the backend of the treasury markets for two reasons. one is the uncertainty surrounding the great pass. we also believe there has been very substantial buying if u.s. trading by central banks. that is in the process of reversing, and that selling pressure as well as the ongoing budget deficit financing for the u.s. needs to have a high risk premium. anna: do you see evidence of the chinese really substantially changing their premiums? --had a couple guests kevin: i think it is still a bit early. we have only really moved to a more market -- to pay for that currency a month ago. we would expect to see that coming through, and there is some evidence beginning to show up. the emerging-market central

banks are selling treasuries and the government in the u.s. the selling treasuries, which they will be, and investing to messieurs are not buying treasuries, who was left? be, but the long and needs to get more premium. understanding -- it was that going to affect the most? about who has to match liabilities -- he is most exposed to a significantly steeper curve? companies wille be relatively happy because they are probably under hedge pension funds. they will reduce their long-term liabilities. the u.s. doesn't have the same pension fund liability driven forces that we do in the u.k. there is an aspect of that, a higher perspective yield and a higher discount rate will be a good thing. but the other aspect is the

prevalence of fixed rate mortgages, higher, long-term bond yields leading to higher long-term fixed rates. a controlling influence on the economy. in some ways it will be quite good because it means ultimately less need for short-term rates to go up. anna: what does it do to companies, if rates rise? it pushes rates higher for some businesses, that cannot be a positive? some have suggested that if the fed gets on with it and start increasing rates, and companies that have been putting off investment decisions might crack on before rates go any higher once they see that the fed is going to move. kevin: that is a good point, and i think we have some sympathy with that. policy have monitoring -- have monetary policy, those kinds of do i invest or not invest, get put off, because the signal for the economy -- there is something wrong here.

but if we get back to some form of normality, does that give a invest,- let's go and build the plant? what we are really seeing so far is -- particularly in the u.s. -- raising debt. at the moment, a lot of it is being used to buy back shares and that is one of the reasons equity markets are resilient. the debt burden for u.s. corporate is increasing. they are being very smart about that, raising interest rates, locking in that long-term low rate of financing. so far it has not gone into investment. anna: thank you. tune into bloomberg little bit later today. i'm very excited about this -- the decision is at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. floor 30king to the

minutes after that. looking forward to it -- plenty of coverage here on bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. 17 minutes past 7:00 in london. here are the stories you need to know. guy: hours away from the most closely watched federal reserve decision in years. a 33% chance that the fed will raise rates later today. fullwith bloomberg for coverage -- it comes at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. yellen takes the podium half an hour after that. anna: cablevision is being bought in a deal valued at $17.7 billion. the move accelerates the european company's expansion into north america. the agreement values cablevision at $34.90 a share. england bank of governor mark carney signals that there is a chance the bank

may raise rates in early 2016 if the economy continues to grow and inflation pressures pick up. >> my view is that if the economy continues to rebound consistently, and the decision is, for me, coming into sharper relief. for more on the business impacts of a potential rate rise coming through from the u.s., how does it affect businesses here in europe, let's talk to the ceo of the construction company caregroup, which rose 14% this morning. let's get to the ceo, joining us for his first interview of the day. great to see you. give us your view as a business man. you are heavily exposed to the construction industry and probably into what's going on the interest rate story. what do you make of the deliberation, and how is that going to impact on your

business? hayden: deliberation is what we will see from a business point what does it mean for the bank of england? 95% of our operations are in the u.k. so we are probably more concerned with the impacts here in terms of domestic interest rates. i think the interest rates when they do rise will be modest and recently measured. the group of our size has had it in our sites for some time and plan accordingly. i think it is manageable. guy: how do you plan? what do you change? haydn: there are a few parts to the business more effective. the residential part of our group -- they make it more expensive with demand -- we evaluate all that in terms of where and what we build. anna: you have been taking the opportunity while the interest rates have been low and m&a has been all the rage. you have been doing a bit of m&a of euro. -- of your own.

was that driven by the availability of cheap money? haydn: about a year ago, we set out our strategy. arething was that if we going to service our clients, we have to be one of the top three players and any sector. as prices are competitive, those matter. we acquired a services company in 2013. we recently acquired a highway maintenance company to brawl brought in the service we can offer. guy: we talked about this a little yesterday -- has the government missed the opportunity to invest heavily in infrastructure? haydn: i don't they get has missed it. butaps the deliberations -- i think there has been plenty of opportunity for them to invest.

when the government wants to do something, it will definitely do it, and we are very involved. anna: you have been a rifle with jeremy corbyn in the u.k.. there is more debate going on about the relationship between the public and private sectors. we have had a few conversations about how the private actors involved in infrastructure projects around the public sector. is thatrtnerships, something that is going to evolve and change, do you think? is it a formula that has worked? haydn: yes and yes. i think it is inevitable. the public sector has huge financial pressures on their budget and need the private sector. we have the balance sheets to help them. that is evident, i think, when you look at the new infrastructure projects coming out. the tunnel in east london would be an example. i think if you look at local authorities and services, the pressure that ceos are under

means they have to look to their assets to generate value, not just reducing cost of the service. they need the private sector to develop those assets. how high do you think haydn will have to see interest rates to go? peyton is trying to figure out what that means for his business. very similar to the u.s. and the u.k., rates go away from the emergency levels justifies it. the neutral level of interest rates in the u.k. is now lower and that is because of the extending volume globally. can't as a global economy tolerate the kind of interest rates to have seen in the previous cycle. in the u.k., they are raising rates, but there is no hurry. we had inflation data earlier -- there is no reason in terms of current inflation, to raise rates.

we are forward-looking. 3%., guy: how much are you paying your staff at the moment? what is the rate is increasing wages? i am curious to have a max. kevin: it is reasonably variable, i think labor rates and wage rates, particularly in construction, are getting into the 5%, 6% territory. generally, you were looking at an average about 3.5% to 4%. anna: that is quite punchy, isn't it? the wage has not been indicative of what has been happening. seen is awhat we have price correction rather than inflation. the supply chain and us have had to correct prices for all of our clients. that has happened over the last 12 months. a more predictable, normalized rate of inflation, 5%, 6%. anna: earlier he was talking

about the u.k. economy going over the peak. would that be your assessment? increasing interest rates? kevin: possibly. in terms of the change of growth, it made be that back -- it may be that we saw the period of faster acceleration. that doesn't mean it is slowing -- we still think growth in the u.k. for this year and next year is in the 2.5% or even higher than that zone. having interest rates at zero in the u.k. is the wrong thing to have. i think it is interesting -- when we look at the construction sector where the wage rise is beginning to come through, there is evidence of some sectors where there are still shortages, where wages are beginning to increase. we think of tightening the labor market, and it is not radical,

but a small upward move in compensation. that has got to be on the boe. guy: another input causes commodities. the house has a truckload now -- what is the input story there? wages are going up, but is that being compensated for? kevin: definitely. haydn: anything that has a high energy component in its production generally has seen that stabilizer coming down. the underlying cost for us is purely labor rates. if you look at the infrastructure investment that is currently happening, it is much greater than we have ever seen in the last few years. the skill shortage fuels the way drive. anna: how much do you happen that infrastructure pipeline, that it will be delivered upon, that it will be planning that gets in the way? haydn: good question. we can see the projects at the

early just nation, so we have a consulting arm working on the feasibility. you do have a good feasibility over the long-term. the investment- and infrastructure really has to happen to underpin the economy otherwise we will start to slide. guy: when you are increasing prices -- are you doing that already? we established a joint venture so we are ready to receive the work and pay for it but we are doing some payment, which is modest value. anna: sounds like a lot. haydn, thank you very much for joining us. group. of keir kevin adams, director of fixed incomes. guy: coming up on "countdown," the other central bank position we are watching in the swiss bank.

we will preview the decision being overshadowed by the fed but there is still plenty to discuss. ♪

guy: that is 7:30 in london, 8:30 in frankfurt, here are the stories you need to know. the: we are hours away from most closely watched federal reserve decision in years. there is a 30% chance that the fed will raise rates later today. stay with bloomberg for full coverage -- the rate decision comes out at 7:00 in the evening u.k. time. janet yellen takes the podium after that. guy: cablevision is being bought , valued at $70.7 billion. the french company is expanding into the u.s. the agreement values it at the $34.90 per share. anna: at least three people have

died in the 8.3 magnitude earthquake that struck the north of chile. coastal areas have a been evacuated. e's president is assessing the damage and warns of the potential for strong aftershocks. guy: we are 29 minutes away from the start of european trading. we are expecting a positive open. how has asia been faring? shery ahn is standing by with the details. stocks are rising for a second consecutive day. erasingghai composite as much as 1.6% of losses, gaining 1.2%. the rise today has been more gradual than yesterday's research in the last hour, although trading volume is pretty low, half the three-month average. we have some movers in china. in hong kong, a brewery is

gaining the most in four years, currently rising more than 9%. we are hearing that goldman bevs thinks that ab in could be a game changer is completed. china resources are also being added to goldman's conviction by list. when the cow -- we are hearing that junk and fraud cases may come to as much as $43 million. the securities company is raising 2.5%, although hsbc cut into neutral. from sources that they were told to contribute billions of dollars to the market rescue fund. china's airlines are also gaining 2/10 of a percent today after striking a deal with martin there.

back to you. guy: shery ahn, thank you very much. anna: 7:30 2 -- we are all waiting for the fed to decision. later on, a bit of m&a going on. caroline: this is interesting -- the u.s. company being snatched up by a chinese company, for the intention theris there. this is the biggest estate owned computer company, i.t. company, looking to buy atmail corp. they make checks for industrial use to put in cars, and they are offering $8.50 per share. premium the very small when you are looking at the closing price of of just $8.18. with such a small premium being offered, and indeed with the fact that a chinese company juggernaut is looking to buy a u.s. company, this could

potentially not the that attractive to either involved. but so far, talks are ongoing, back to you. anna: thank you very much. guy: 26 minutes away from the european market open. calculationsou the about how we think the market will open. it is fed day -- let's bear that in mind -- nobody get too excited. probably aing at 3/10, for tents, 5/10 percent rise when it comes to the european equity start of trading. nobody is going to get too excited, nothing to dramatic until they know. anna:; 34 here in london, a: 34 in london. the federal reserve is not the only central bank with the right decision to make. the swiss national bank also announces its decision at 8:30 u.k. time.

we are joined with a preview -- good to see you, paul. economists don't expect anything to change, but is there room for much debate? paul: the key debate may be around inflation -- none of the economists are expecting a change in rates. the swiss economy is relatively robust after that surprise and to the swiss cap. the economy shrank in the first quarter, rebounded in the second, and the swiss franc has weakened, easing the pressure on the bank. however inflation is forecasted for 1% this year, the biggest drop in six decades. the key will be whether the swiss national bank decides to reduce the forecast even more. that could be the key debate in the coming weeks. guy: how low can they go? that is one question we probably need to ask. paul: yes, that's right. we are now at minus three

quarters of 1%. the swiss national bank president has said that the bottom is not being reached, and you can go lower. economists are talking -1.25% as the bottom. they could even go lower than that, but you do run into a problem -- a cash warning. there comes a point where there is no point putting in money in a bank account that attracts a seat. -- a fee. people will start locking up their cash and that can be a drag on the economy. you would probably have to take stops to prevent people -- take steps to prevent people from doing that. anna: paul gordon joining us from zurich. guy: let's move back to the central bank story. we will talk a little bit more about the swiss national bank in "on the move," but let's focus on the fed. stephen cohen joins us to discuss the impact.

also joining us, the eurozone economist at citigroup. he joins us from his office. perspective, a european rate perspective, what are you guys expecting? what do you think the ripple effect will be? >> first of all, it depends on whether the fed hike yesterday. the u.s. economists think it is 30% likely. higher if you have to wait until october. we think it is touch and go. we are in favor of a hike, but at the same time there is no hurry. the reasonsy that to hike are obvious -- you talk about the strength of the data we have recently seen coming out of the united states -- you say if the fed it doesn't hike it brings into question their function. what you mean by that? guillaume: it is clear that the

communication in the fed has been lined towards the tightening of its monetary policy -- and employment is low, the economy is growing. tightening, you have to explain why when you have made the case. i think it might be good to wait another month. on the other side of the pond, ecb is desperate for the fed to do what they said they would. this is what they need for the inflation policy. sachs,ephen, goldman lord black find says the markets are ready. what is your assessment of what the asset markets are likely to do one way or the other? stephen: i think they are a lot more likely than they have been -- you could make an argument that have last week when to

happen they probably would have said september was a done deal. but clearly it did, and i think that changed the market quite genetically. --is very interesting overnight we had a good day in asia and i a good day in asia. credit has been very calm. i think the market -- if they do go today, the market could absorb it relatively well. anna: things are looking a little, this week and they did just a few weeks ago. so does volatility in the market. no nervousness around the chinese investors, when last week mario draghi was concerned about china. we aren't going to hear that from yellen, do you think? guillaume: i don't think you need to reference china, if you are the fed chair. i think you want to concentrate what is happening

domestically. the path of tightening can be very low, because the inflation picture is not very dramatic, and generally, you have a slow adjustment globally. you keep in mind the fact that global demand is not -- guy: stephen, do we fully understand the magnitude of what is happening here? it felt like we are going from 2% to 2.25%. we are going from an extraordinary low level to one that is slightly higher. that jump is in some ways massive. stephen: you can look at it both ways. you can look at it from the perspective of the base effect -- we have never come from zero before so it is completely unknown. japan tried it and didn't get very far, so there is that argument. the counterargument is to say, actually, that is why

where we are as inappropriate. zero toit is only from 25 basis points, but it is a step that needs to happen to get you away from something that is not appropriate for an economy that has unemployment at 5%. anna: you mentioned the links between the fed and the ecb in terms of currency. thisis this -- what does decision due to your expectation about what we hear next for mario draghi? --llaume: it is very obvious the risks are now a lot more severe than they were a couple months ago. when you see the numbers published and you start projections, they will get much lower. inflation target is going to be even wider. we thought it would be a string next year, maybe because we

thought we would have some capacity issues, and certainly with the euro the central bank needs to deliver. anna: thank you very much. us.hen: stays with cohen stars witys with us. ♪

guy: welcome back. 7:45 in london. these are the stories you need to know. anna: we are hours away from the most closely watched decision in years. traders are pricing in a 30% chance that the fed will raise rates when it's meeting ends later today. stay with bloomberg for full coverage. the decision comes at 7:00 u.k. time. guy: the cable operator has

agreed to buy cablevision in the united states. the move accelerates the company's expansion into the u.s.. the agreement values cablevision at $34.90 share. at least three people have died in an 8.3 magnitude earthquake that struck the north of chile overnight. authorities evacuated coastal areas as waves triggered tsunamis. the government is assessing the damage and warns of potential for strong aftershocks. 33% chance is what we think is priced in for the fed at the moment -- we could get more qe from the ecb further down the road. that is something we have been talking about over the last few days, as we have been hearing from bloomberg intelligence, from ginny murray, who joins us now. about the's talk

implications of today from a european perspective. debating whether or not druggie would be playing for -- would be praying for a rate hike. you are for an asset cap -- why? jamie: the thing about the rate they have a very large disconnect between the forecast and market estimates. guy: 100 basis points. jamie: enormous. if they see the fed starting to walk the talk, the theory is that it translates into longer-term borrowing costs. we know they are correlated across the world, and it would transmit to europe. the point is that if you see a big surprise from the fed it could be monetary tightening. guy: stephen -- anna: does that offset the

potential policy of a weaker euro? are you suggesting that maybe the ecb wants to see the fed hike rates because then it could push the dollar up in the euro down? jamie: the thing about the currency is that you don't get an enormous effect in europe, and the trouble is you tend to get in the places were you needed the least. germany would benefit quite a lot from germany's depreciation, but spain, italy, greece -- you would still have a monetary policy conundrum. --: we were talking earlier that is not what most people have on as the trade at the moment. they think the fed comes down rather than the market coming up. jamie: yeah, i think that is right. economist our u.s.

saying that they will ease the dot plot and take the tightening in a short and for october. that is our base case. we highlighted as a possibility. anna: so that, stephen, brings into sharp focus the fact that this is an -- today's decision is in just a decision, it is about all the other things that go along with it, the commentary, what that does to people's perspective on where rates go next, even after we have digested whatever it is they do today. stephen: absolutely. when we look back in history, remembering what the day was, we will remember what happened afterwards. ultimately terminal, what will determine the path of the market, and it will also be determined by what the data looks like as we go through the next few months. i think you're right -- it is a package that we will watch.

it is also the inflation forecast. i think that seeps through to the ecb and europe where they againmplied again and that it is dish inflationary -- it is dis-inflationary. guy: inflation is an interesting 1 -- we are now potentially hiking rates at the fed at a lower inflation rate than when they last cut rates. how does that tell us about much inflation is actually bearing on the thinking? is inflation really that high on the agenda? it used to be the needle in the compass, but is that the case anymore? stephen: it is not the sole indicator, in the key thing is that it is what is inflation today versus what it could be in the future. this is the challenge they are fighting. there are all these unknowns around the transitory effect of

what is happening, arguably, in china, in the wage market. if you look at the labor market in the u.s. it is getting quite -- the wage growth isn't really kicking on. yesterday and in recent data you started to see arguments that the wage growth is now starting to come through. again, it pulls you all the way back to the starting point. 3% starting point was 2.5%, -- we wouldn't have this discussion. but because it is zero we are talking about it. anna: if they are trying to get to what the new normal is around -- weion, what is this need to make an assessment about deflationary vibes, don't we? exports to china are down 4.6%, i mean, how much is this china away from the

turmoil -- how much is that going to factor into what the fed is doing, jamie? the earlier oral price drop was unambiguously a supply shop. it was unambiguously good for the global economy. the latest demand shock is more ambiguous. you have the benefit of demand from cheap prices and goods, that you have the risk of external demand. balance good, on and that is the thing the fed has been working on more -- the market reaction to it. guy: if the market reaction is calm, that encourages it further. jamie: yeah. one thing that they don't want to do is surprised the market. -- is surprise the market. we haven't got inflation going out of control, we haven't got a

recession. steady as she goes. anna: if that is true, if they don't want to surprise the markets, than they can change rates, can they? if there is only a 30% expectation that rates will move. stephen: i think it does push -- that pushes the balance to say don't go today because the argument would be, well, you haven't done it for so long, why not wait until you can get absolute consensus? but it is interesting -- there is an analogy around what happened with papering. in december it was a nonevent, and they were very clear about saying that we could stop any time but they never did. once everyone was comfortable, it was derailing the economy and causing volatility. there was a steady path. that is an interesting discussion about what happens afterwards. anna: stephen, thank you very much. jamies, thanks to you, as well. guy: european equities will open

pretty flat. "on the move" is up next with jon ferro. what are you watching? jon: there's only one story in town -- the federal reserve. a live meeting and no one can agree on the outcome. trade is divided, economists are divided, the market says no. but when you strip back to statement that said we need some further improvement in the labor market -- have we had it, yes or no? the fed says we need to be relatively confident that it will return to target. basic question they have to ask at today's fomc meeting -- yes or no to both of them? it really is as simple as that and be will be drinking it down with michael metcalf. em.will do equities and temper tantrum 2.0?

is it a calm before storm? we talk about the fx market. guy: jon, thank you very much. "on the move" is next. equities looking quiet -- let me show you what the numbers are. this opening tells the story as much as anything else. three decent days but now we are looking at a quiet day. everybody is on tense alert, waiting for the fed decision. anna: goldman sachs is saying that the data doesn't support the case for high rates. we will see if he is being listened to. ♪

"on the move." welcome to -- welcome to "on the move." moments away from the start of european trading. it is the day. the federal reserve decides whether to hike rates for the first time since 2006. economists divided. opinion split with 59 of 113 economists expecting the fed to remain on hold. uncertainty reigns. tv, u.s. data does not support the case for higher

rates. ahead of the open, 10 seconds away, i have futures lower here. dax futures are higher, up by 28 points. the beginning of a long trading day. let's get things kicked off. ? a third day of gains. caution ahead of that rate decision. to hike? or not to hike back the question on everyone's minds. to annoy six-year fans. the ftse up .3%. as you said it, economists divided down the middle. defense future fun rates seem to be signaling and 32% chance we could see a rate hike. stocks tentatively up in europe. up by one as