francine: will janet yellen go for the first rate hike since 2006? surveyed byts bloomberg respect the fed to stay on hold. but markets are vulnerable because no one knows what is about to happen. that -- heells us does not support the case. he's worried about the next economic downturn. welcome to "the pulse." live from london.

coming up later on the show, speak to the former u.k. chancellor at 10:30 u.k. time. first, today is the day and just a matter of hours we find out whether the fed will raise rates for the first time since 2000 6. a bloomberg survey of 113 economists have found just over half say they do not expect a hike today. that ties in with comments from lloyd blankfein and ray dalio. what to the markets think? let's check in with jonn ferro. jon: no consensus. nobody knows what is going to happen. that is the first time we have a live meeting of the federal reserve. when they sit around the table today, what are they going to be looking at? the good, the bad, the unknown. unemployment down to 5.1

percent. potentially bad -- the inflation numbers. what is the outlook for inflation? how certain are they that in the medium-term inflation goes back towards their target? completee is a unknown. how did they factor in the global situation. what is happening in china? how conscious are they of the 15 major central banks that have hiked since the financial crisis only to turn around and reverse course. there's a lot of questions the fomc is to answer. francine: is there such a thing as a dovish rate hike? jon: i think what is going to happen. but the focus will shift to is the path. janet yellen has been key to get the focus on not the first lift off but the future rate path. where will rates be in 12 or 18 months from now? what next? janet yellen, yes, we may hike. but look at the dot plot. a loose tightening.

back to you. francine: thank you so much. of bridgewaterer associates says he does not see the argument for a rate hike. he spoke to tom keene and mike mckee. ray: i didn't care if they -- i don't care if they raise 25 basis points. i do not see the reason for it, frankly. 2007 i was watching this incredible bubble happening. an asset bubble and it was a finance of a lot of debt. it was an obvious bubble. thefed give attention to gdp gap and missed the whole bubble and we had an economic collapse. now we have a situation in which we are in the mid-part of the cycle. they are trying to identify where the inflation is. what they are worried about -- and we have a lot of included. there are glimmers here and there. but basically, i think that

they're wary too much about the short-term debt cycle and not enough about the long-term. so i don't get it, given those risks. look at the world. where -- we're in a world economy. tell me companies that should be tightening or easing monetary policy. francine: that brings up today's twitter question. do you care if the fed raise rates? i know someone who will care. let's bring in our guest. great to have you run the program. always a pleasure. do we care too too much? because it is stated dependent. andreas: i care a lot. i was on the program at the start of this q.e., global q.e., and i thought it was a very sinister type of monetary

policy because it redistributes on a massive scale to debtors. i do not know if the fed will raise tomorrow. the question is, should they raise? absolutely. policy hasary allowed the system to stabilize but we have not seen growth pick up sufficiently. the argument i made several times before is probably q.e. policies and zero interest-rate policies are counterproductive because they are telling investors, telling industrialists, there is still a crisis going on. it is unsafe to invest. nobody knows with the discount rate is. he reasonse of t that fixed capital ratios is that it all-time low. francine: there might be a credibility problem if the fed has raise rates and reverse it. andreas: there is always going to be turmoil.

a competing show last week in new york. already the fed hike was being discussed. they were framing the question as to whether the fed should hike in the context of the earnings disappointment from apple. the downdraft in the stock market on that day. that is just completely ridiculous. not about stabilizing the stock market. francine: absolutely, but i'm looking at china. is it a market correction or much more sinister hard landing? did the authorities lose control? when you look at world growth, it is going to. we may hit a recession at a rate hike would not help that. andreas: what does a rate hike to? needn't basis points have a significant impact on the yield curve. and may have some impact on

currencies. if anything, if it improves the exchange rate of the dollar, it could be positive for china. so, that is not such a bad thing. more importantly i think is what a rate hike would signal to the financial markets and to decision-makers. it would signal a going back to normal. right now it is signaling we are still in crisis. francine: is it that you want to say that we are back to normal or the party is over? are the markets in a necessary correction? eas: they are probably in the necessary correction. that being said, they are not equities. seennk volatility we have over the past 18 months, which seems to be increasing, is due to the uncertainty around interest rates and uncertainty around whether the central bank, the policymakers have confidence we are through the worst or that we're probably worried about the next recession. francine: are you not worried about the next recession? andreas: absolutely, i am worried. but i think zero and destroy

policy may be conjured into a recession rather than causing it. francine: the point is that -- because then if you are at zero then central banks do not have the tools to help a possible recession. andreas: they need to give themselves firepower again to counteract any possible flattening of economic growth. you as a question earlier, is there a dovish rate hike? absolutely, there is. in 2006, that was. we know what happened after that. francine: talk to me a little bit about how you actually invest around this environment. you've talked about this a lot. secular trends. chasing dividend and income. there are many ways people can do that. there are market asset strategies that will vary -- be very diversified that can target a return at about 4%. nominal third i think that is return the people can hope for. it is similar to the dividend yield of many stock markets.

dividend shares will give that over two to three years. the other way is to look at investment strategies that generate sustainable performance. what that means is that either, if people want to have -- they theyuy that strategy, if want to capture the performance at 4% over the benchmark, sophisticated investors can hedge out the beta risk and still get their 4%. now, that is of course in a lower -- environment which we anticipate for the next for seeable future. alpha is going to be a much more important component of people's returns that it was the last 10 years. francine: thank you so much. he stays with us. plenty more to talk about. here's a look about what else is on our radar. bank of it when governor mark carney has signaled that there is a chance the bank may raise rates in early 2016 if the economy continues to grow and inflation pressures pick up.

he made the comments during the parents before the treasury select -- in an appearance before the treasury select committee. the economy if follows the path consistent with this forecast, then the decision will come into sharper relief around the turn of the year. francine: a french cable operator has agreed to buy cablevision. it accelerates the european company's expansion in the u.s. lasta 22% premium over night's closing price. three people are known to have died in the 8.3 magnitude earthquake that struck the north of chile. authorities affect critical scenarios as waves washed ashore. the president says the government is assessing the thege and warned of potential for strong aftershocks could police in hungary have

fired tear gas and water cannon and refugees trying to break through the border. hundreds of people have been trapped at the crossing after hungary closed it to stay. it has been a main entry point for those trying to get into the european union. the e.u. is dealing with the worst refugee crisis since the second world war and tens of thousands flee the war in syria and iraq. the second republican presidential debate took place in california lesson. there's tommy got personal as the more politically experienced candidates tried to gain an advantage over donald trump. >> i think there a sophomore quality that is entertaining, i am worried. i'm very concerned about having him in charge of nuclear weapons, because i think his ceral responsevi to attack people on their appearance, short, tall fat, ugly, my goodness that happened in junior high. are we not way above that?

would we not be worried to have someone like that in charge of the nuclear weapons? ump: i never attacked him on his lip and there is plenty of subject matter on that. takes to janet yellen the podium today. we will continue to look and had after this very short break. ♪

>> i do believe the fed is not going to hike interest rates in september. but there will be a rate hike in december. >> they put themselves in the best possible position. whatever they do, nobody would say we are discovering something which is entirely new. withhave a lot of trouble this idea that let's do it now and then we hold our breath. if you really don't know that you have room to raise it, why are starting out? case fork the domestic raising rates is solid. has been for a while. they should have moved when both domestic and international elements were aligned. >> the question is, are the conditions facing the u.s. economy in terms of the objectives of inflation and on a plummet such that an increase make sense? that is the only criteria that

matters. i'mf there is any reaction, talking about the u.s., outside the u.s. it is going to be much bigger. >> it is much more about setting precedent or getting started. if the u.s. economy is in anything like normal shape, 25 basis points should not matter that much. >> by 25 basis points, if they don't, then the narrative about why they don't is important. >> i do not think they should do a hike just because they want to start hiking. i think that would be poor judgment to make the move. >> if things go badly in the rest of the world, financial condition spillover, in that case, they should push it into 2016. francine: all right. those were some of our key guest weighing in on the fed rate decision over the past week.

let's continue the conversation with our guests. before the break, you were saying, it matters to you what the fed does. because they need to give a signal to the markets that actually the party is over. andeas: the party is over central banking normal operations has resume. the central banks have done with a needed to do in the immediate aftermath of the great financial crisis -- stabilize the banking system -- and now they need to resume normal operating procedures. in the case of the fed, that means we are at full employment. the a country has picked up, consumer confidence is high. no reason not to hike interest rates. francine: you look at charts all the time to ensure they are shouldn't they? mark: what a failure of forward guidance. what was supposed to be a new era of central bank monetary policy.

and to consumers and businesses who have to make investment decisions. it's appalling? francine: do you really think that, because the guidance was on messages till we had emerging markets in china. mark: it wasn't. look at the parade of clever people we had with the diversions of use, even about whether the economy can sustain in interest-rate increase. it all seems to be more about the psychology of central banking not liking the zzeero. it has got almost nothing to do with the current inflation backdrop and little to do with the inflation outlook, because there is not a lot of forecast for 2% inflation. if that is what central banks are holding their hats, on, it's a ridiculous situation. if they raise rates, they will be accused of ignoring international backdrop. if they do not raise rates, they will be accused of cowardice.

they can't win today. i think it is their own fault. francine: two you agree with that? i always read it to say that toically they were ichingtching go and turmoil scuppered everything. andreas: i think for guidance will be ditched. and forward guidance needs to be ditched, because it is not what central banks should be about. i think central banks should be able to keep their options open and not be guided by the markets. we've got the cart in front of the horse here. it is the markets, as i referred to in the early block, the markets seem to be dictating fed policy. and that is what the market is expecting. that is fundamentally wrong. that has basically happened since the greenspan put. we have got to get away from that policy. if that means of setting the markets for a while, that is a necessary price to pay to avoid

a much greater calamity that might happen. rocause right now the ze interest rate policies have achieved the opposite of what they were supposed to. s global stock ofh debt i higher than it was precrisis. we are in a worse position with less growth. that is a real conundrum. the policies and quantitative easing on top have not produce the goods. mark: i went back and re-read ben bernanke's famous speech on deflation. the polity is and has been followed to the letter. it's failed. it's turns out quantitative easing does not avert the risk of deflation. the employees of citigroup is talking about the global recession. he also seems very worried that they have not slay the dragon of deflation by any means anywhere. and the japan experience seems more and more instructive as time goes on. in the u.s.he u.k.

you are not seeing that inflation forecasting horizon. and that is the bit that worries me. that if central banks have steered businesses -- if i was running a business in this environment, mi going to build a new factory? 0-- am i going to build a new factory? andreas: it is a discount rate. thatine: do you agree deflation is a huge concern? does it mean the ecb, whether they do extra q.e. or not? andreas: of course it is a huge concern of the markets. that is part of the reason we are seeing volatility. because the narrative today is that deflation and anything that might possibly lead to deflation such as higher interest rates is on them vigorously ba -- una mbiguosly bad. the western world is facing democratic challenges.

it is not a given that growth of two or 3% nominal and 1.5% real is sustainable for the next 10 years. and therefore, if that is the case, then we are aiming for the wrong boogy and we are consistently disappointed. that narrative needs to change. we need to re-examine how bad lower nominal growth really is. real growther really is. and if zero percent inflation or flat disinflation is as various as the markets are making it out to be. we don't know. francine: you and japan and the stock -- they've been stuck. they have been stuck in this vicious circle for 20 years. mark: you can persist like that for a long time. and you may have to use different stabilizes to adjust for that environment, would be one argument. are idea that low rates contributing to the problem. e-mailsad a load of about this. and i am starting to worry that a thought expense.

if the fed move traits to 3% later today, would we be in a better or worse economic outlook? what do you think? andreas: it is a very interesting question but i would not say we would be in the worst environment. the yield curve for not necessarily stephen, which would hardly impact long-term investment. it would send a positive signal to savers. they would get return on their investment again. spend that money. i don't know. it is a very good question. that is why think 25% is not going to do any damage. we should definitely get on with that. and perhaps be even more aggressive and get the markets used to an interest rate environment which is not on the surface there to support the financial system. francine: thank you so much. andreas stays with us and mark calvert. -- and mark gilbert. the european cable operator is

buying cablevision for nearly $1 8 billion. for more, let's bring in matt campbell. what does this mean for altice? matt: this transaction, was completed, it will make them into the first rank of the u.s. cable industry. he was a bit player cablevision operates in the new york metropolitan area, not in new york city but in the suburbs. it is one of the top five or six u.s. cable operators. with this, and, nation with sutton link and other deals, in combination, this makes altice heavyweighta in the u.s. francine: it means that what u.s. pay tv, that industry is growing and it makes sense to own?

i am not sure if this is driven so much by growth as by the opposite. the u.s. business is consolidating among cable, telecom media in general. everyone is buying each other if they can. we have seen at&t making major acquisitions. charter getting bigger. this is about the netflix effect and the amazon affect in the apple effect. these are company that once upon a time could count on a very lucrative business model in which basically everyone had a cable's excursion. -- cable subscription. these guys are trying to come together in an effort to take on the big beasts from silicon valley who have cut into the revenues. francine: are they going to see many more u.s. acquisitions from altice? an extremely is

ambitious person. he is aggressive in the u.s. cable market in particular is quite fragmented. there are still a number of midsized to the lower end of large regional players. and he's in a good position to roll some of those up. francine: thank you so much. bloomberg's chief business correspondent. coming up, the second republican presidential debate gets personal as the top 11 candidates battle it out for the nomination. donald trump fends - found himself centerstage. >> we do not need an apprentice in the white house. we have one right now. wetoolld us all the things wanted to hear in 2008. we need someone who can get the job done. francine: it is entertaining. we still have 18 months of this. stay with us. we are right on "the pulse." it is fed day. when we come back, we rejoin we come g -- when

back, we will be rejoined by our guest. follow me on twitter. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london. we are just getting breaking news out of the u.k. august retail sales rising 0.2%, bang in line with what economists were expecting. we have a look at the pound. 1.5506. it's fed day. inhad yesterday mark carney front of the treasury select committee saying that if interest rates rise, they may come early 2016. we have heard from him before the decision should be made at the turn of the year. are bloomberg's top

headlines. the cable operator altice has agreed to buy cablevision. the move accelerates the european company's expansion in the u.s. the d values cablevision ateal $34.90 a share. are at least three people known to have died in the 8.3 magnitude earthquake in chile. authorities evacuated coastal areas as waves triggered by the earthquake washed ashore. says theresident government is assessing the damage and warned of potential for strong aftershocks. hours away from the most closely watched federal reserve decision in years. traders rae pricing in a 30% chance the fed will raise rates as later today, goldman sachs says financial markets are vulnerable because nobody can agree on what the fed will do. lloyd blankfein says that u.s. economic data does not support the case for higher rates. now, how are the markets

behaving? let's check in on the markets with ryan chilcote. ryan: european stocks are looking for direction from the fed. they are mostly down, but down just a tad. the euro stoxx 600 down .5%. the ftse down 3.1%. after, which was on fire the company announced it agreed to buy cablevision. at $17.7 billion deal. it shares have risen 12%. they are trading over 2%. a lot of momentum coming out of the market right there. what i really want to show you is what we care about today and that is this. what is the fed going to do? these right here are fed funds futures contracts. the next six months. on the right hand side, you have what the fed fund traders out there think the fed will lend to

banks. in the month of september, for example, they think the fed will be leading to the banks at 17 basis points. 26 basis points in november. february is key. that is when the think the fed 38l be lending to banks at basis points. why is that important? the fed is targeting a rate rates. 0 and 25 basis at the moment, the actual rate is 14. so the midrange between 25 and 50 basis points is 37.5. that is what 38 tells you. what that tells you right there is that traders out there are pricing in that first rate hike in the month of february. not today or next month but in february next year. francine: thank you so much. mark barton did that yesterday.

let's get more with our chief investment officer at allianz. so much fory do sticking around. it is obvious you have been our guest host for the hour that you want the fed to act now. 25 is the time to do it. otherwise, get used to occur. how do you make money in this environment? you have been quoted. 4%. so far you are proven right. andreas: i think it is a question of taking risk, because your risk-free is zero. a smart risk. i do not think you can rely on the date of the markets to do what it has done in the past, which is a 10% annualized return. everyone got used to that. everybody would love the to be the case for the next five to 10 years. i'm afraid it is going to be a question of really hard work. whether it is identifying price

securities or being brave when the market overshoots because we do expect volatility. look at emerge market currencies, for example. whether that -- that is the case of being really diversified. the times of easy money are over. francine: what worries you the most? the greek crisis out of the way, we now have deflation globally but you say this can be managed. we have turmoil on the markets. do you worry about the u.k. leaving me e.u.? shots from emerging markets? do you worry about brazil'? andreas: first of all, i do not think we have global deflation. we have a dis-inflationary trend globally. forcefully, we do not have global deflation yet. that is a concern. taking a step up, policy mistakes, particularly political policy mistakes, are going to be a major issue. because when the global macro environment is fragile and

the global financial system is nervous, than any policy mistake is ample fight. leaving the e.u. would be a major policy mistake. andreas: not central banks. i'm talking about countries in vading one another. greece leaving the euro. ireland contained -- the refugee crisis not being properly handled. these are major issues that can impact the real economy in a major way. francine: in china, you seem sanguine about the fact that, they have to go through this turmoil because they are trying 80 degrees.t 2 are you confident they have a good handle on the situation? andreas: i think there is a slight devaluation, probably a big learning for them, because capitalo massive outflows which is not what they wanted to achieve. so, i think they're going to

have to rethink their response . there's a lot to learn. this is not a central bank that is massively experience that global international markets. and everybody will make mistakes. broadly speaking, we think the chinese economy will manage this more export orientated towards a more consumer led economy, but it will take time. people are expect an, markets architecting everything to be immediate. that is not the case. this is hard work. francine: the problem is the markets are respected everything now. thank you so much for coming in. now, tune in to bloomberg for our special report on the fed decision. 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. janet yellen will take to the podium 30 minutes later. 11 candidates to to the stage last night at the second republican presidential debate. for those unable to make it to the entire three hours, bloomberg politics price it down and under three minutes.

from bowling green kentucky. >> i brought my own water. >> my story from secretary to ceo is only possible in this nation. >> by the way, i think i flew on this playing with ronald reagan. >> first of all, rand paul should not even be on the stage. >> the one guy that has a special interest that i know if they try to get me to change my views on something that gave me money was donald trump. he wanted casino gambling in florida. yes, you did. >> one second. yes, ok. more energy tonight. i like that. am willing to get into bed with special interest groups. >> i will rip to shreds this deal.rophic iranian >> i was one of the first was a call for terminating the bad deal with iran. >> i think she's got a

beautiful face and i think she is a beautiful woman. >> donald trump's being in this race has forced the mainstream media finally to talk about illegal immigration. we haveall due respect, been talking about illegal immigration for 25 years. >> carly, listen. you interrupt everybody else, you do not interrupt me. >> i've been listening to everybody and there is a lot of back-and-forth but i'm the only one who has done this or that. i've done great things. we have all done great things only would not be on the stage. do not worry about me and hillar y. i'm from ohio. she will not beat me there. >> governor christie talk a lot about their track what. >> arab name. >> as relates to my brother, there is one thing i know for sure -- he kept us safe. >> i suggested that president bush he not go to war, ok? i just want that on the record. or c ifalways be a bush you want to go back to warli in iraq. we need 36 marine battalions.

we need 300 and 350 naval ships. >> it is true that after george w. bush nominated john roberts, i supported his confirmation. i regret that. >> 40 years ago, i smoked marijuana and i admit it. i'm sure -- my mom's not happy. >> america is not a planet. >> i would not change the $10 bill. >> i have been called a lot of names. now i have got to get called names by the secret service. i would say true heart. >> ever ready, it is high energy donald. >> humble. [laughter] francine: entertaining is how i would call this presidential race. as germany grapples with an expected 18,000 refugees, a small town south of frank for it is offering new arrivals a chance to work 20 hours a week before the papers are processed hour.e euro an

hans nichols traveled there to learn more about a program that cost less than 4000 euros. hans: meet a 26-year-old syrian refugee waiting for his german workpapers. but not waiting to work. the manager of the town's movie theater has given him a one-euro job, part of a program that could be replicated. he trusts josef with the keys. >> this job just for connection with people. to learn more of the language. connection with people, if you can get more activity for language. to make a relationship for a good solution. youseff has master the technology but it is the first step on what will be a long road. the drama playing across europe and especially in germany is not

how to physically absorb and house the refugees but how to integrate them into the workforce, how to find them their first job on their way to their dream job. a town of 24,000 south of frankford is a typical german community. but it also has something different. omali refugee from the 1990's she wants to make integration for today's arrivals easier and get some purpose. >> they don't earn much. what they receive is more than they get in the city where they live. they have something to do. they are useful, not just a burden. s: she says have to time explaining the project to other cities. 110 refugees, 15 are participating. the refugees can work at state agencies are nonprofits. the real challenge, according to the mayor, is to teach them to be german. >> it is important that they get

real pay jobs, but the first step is to get, yeah, a chance to work here in germany, to learn how our society worse -- works is very important. if you have to, 8:00 in the morning, it is important in germany that you are on time. hans: keeping german time seems easy but mastering a new alphabet is another matter. >> it is different to think about german. same letter but different, more different for language. to start conversation it is hard. hans: to make a language learning easier, he has the keys to the town's will be theater. -- move theater. .rancine: hans joins us now we heard from several ceo's about the need for germany to bring in more workers. hans: the numbers indicate there

will be a need for more german workers. take a look at a graphic. germany really has the most jobs open in 42 years. 560,000 availability. you look at where was in the early 1980's. they were down at 100,000 jobs open. an unemployed rated 6.4%. there is a skills gap. maybe having some sort of trainee program for refugees. when weal, you know, read papers in german or listen to conversation, there is a great deal of concern about the demographic challenges. germany has a fertility rate or 1.4%. outside of germany, especially in the u.k., there seems to be a lot of admiration for what is happening in germany, a strong economy. internally, though, you hear a the 6out will they find million replacement workers that they are going to need? again, this is going to get down

to a skills gap. that is why there are estimates out there on how much germany can potentially need to spend to make the transition from new arrivals who do not speak german to working in the auto industry. it is a big challenge. this program just a small pilot program but the mayor -- the lady that runs it, she spent half or a time explaining it across the country. francine: we are hearing from angela merkel purchase that she is encouraging newcomers in germany to integrate. she is talking at the car show. those who hdon't qualify -- who don't qualify for asylum, must leave. we have an update on the summit? some leaderso, want to get together later next week in brussels. there is an interior ministers meeting on tuesday. what we have in the last 20 minutes is the e.u. parliament has approved this 120,000 relocation. done atll need to be

the council level. there still needs to be a head of state agreement. then i suspect we will have a difficult conversation. again, all these numbers seem frozen in time. does not seem adequate to the numbers germany is expected. the numbers pouring into croatia. it's getting close to sealed. since wednesday, we have seen 5000 new entrants from serbia into croatia trying to find a different way into the european union. the numbers they are talking about in brussels to seeing out-of-state. they certainly seem out of joint with the numbers we have in germany. francine: thank you so much. now, up next, uber may be the youof choice from taking within the city. but what about ridesharing for long-distance car trips? we speak to the cofounder of blabla cars who has just raced $200 million from three venture capital folks. keep it right here.

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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and radio instrument on your tablet and phone and bloomberg.com. top are some a bloomberg's headlines. suzuki has confirmed that volkswagen has pulled back all of its shares it held in the 8apanese carmaker for $3. billion. arbitrators last month upheld

suzuki's request to cut ties and stake.w to sell its altice has agreed to buy cablevision. the move accelerates the european company's expansion in the u.s. the deal values cablevision at a 22% premium over last night's closing price. uber's rivals are teaming up to china's top car sharing company has invested $100 million dollars in lyfft. relevantill share resources and look to intensify their fight against uber. choicey be the app o f from taking you within a city. but what about ridesharing for longer distance car trips? there is an app for that. it's called blabla cars. million andced $200 is now valued at $1.6 billion. the company's cofounder joins

us. we're also joined by our technology reported, caroline hyde. thank you, both. $200 million is a lot. $1.6 billion. how does that make you feel? feels prettyam good. what matters about the valuation -- the ambition beyond the company. to date, what we want to do is to expand the company globally. we started from france. we went into europe. we went in to countries like asia, mexico, turkey, russia. we want to expand with this funding to a global scale. caroline: $200 million. how much of that currently put into m&a? would you need to buy local competitors in brazil and asia? nicolas: we acquired 8 companies in the last three years. it's a lot. a countryy we go into

-- that is what we have done in turkey and india. typically we find a great team. that is what we found in countries like mexico, italy and poland. we acquire companies. to use the $200 million is a mix of acquiring companies or setting up shop ourselves in a new country. francine: what is the one thing that people ask you, when you look at these venture capitalists, when you're looking for funds? is there one question they all ask? nicolas: this is the main one we have gotten since the beginning. et involved with this side of the market are the main thing people miss understood was the very large size of the transport market we disrupt. initially, it was seen as ok, something like hitchhiking and very few people are going to do that. we're talking about 20 million people in europe.doing that . what people came to realize is that we are disrupting is the way people travel between cities.

a massive market. francine: it is public transport you are disrupting. car rental services. uselas: it is the way you your carpet people underestimate that 80% of the city to city travel in europe is done by car. only 20% is done by train or bus. we are disrupting train companies and bus companies, but i think figure part oft the equation is how do we change people's behavior withhe their car? 50% of our members that start using blabla cars as a driver end up becoming a passenger. the biggest thing we disrupt is how people use their car. and increase frequency on a global scale. caroline: that is great for the environment at how is a great for you? why have you got these vc's $200g, i'll give you million? what are the blue sky thoughts? thing wea, the

mentioned, the size of the market. people not realize we are disrupting that transport market on a global scale and changing car usage. caroline: you are catching in? -- cashing in? paying a fee? a passenger is going to pay a driver 15 to 20 euro. 15% of that will be a cut to the company. if you think of that on a unit basis, a couple of euros max per transition. when you look at the size of the market, it becomes interesting. big would youo hboow be? would you ever sell? have you been approached by anyone? nicolas: we always have discussion with partners and when you do have fundraisers of $200 million and valued at $1.6 billion, what we are signaling is that we want to stay and run it.

we want to build a standalone company that may be one day is going to ipo. it is pretty far down the road. but essentially, we are not building a copy to be acquired. we are building a company that can standalone. francine: that would be a dream- ipo? dream would be to stay independent for a long time. at some point along that path, maybe there is an ipo. right now we want to grow the company another 10 or 20 x. then again, maybe at some point, you think about an ipo. you have gone for cash. caroline: two big u.s. investors. we are starting to see unicorns. hello fresh is now 2.6 billion euros. are europeans getting it? are we seeing european company is building billion dollar companies? main change we have seen over the last couple years if you look at the last 10

years, most european companies were built to be acquired. that is not a bad thing, but we sort of missing the standalone companies in your. spotify is one. hello fresh is another. we need them to kickstart a larger ecosystem. i hope that we will do will trigger that in trigger more entrepreneursn to back coming is all the way. for flyingell done the european flag. congratulations. the cofounder and coo of blabla cars. bloomberg the first word is up next on bloomberg radio. for our viewers, second hour of "the pulse." it's fed day. we have been talking about it for months. we cut you down to the fed's decision. we will talk to stephen gallo of bmo capital markets.

the decision at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. janet yellen will take to the podium 30 minutes later. and we also speak to norman lamont in a bloomberg exclusive. ♪

francine: d-day for the fed. we are counting down to the potential lift off. economists expect the fed to remain on hold. take a hike. worries about the next economic downturn. ♪ good morning to our viewers in europe and africa.

good evening to those in asia. welcome to those just waking up in the united states. coming up later in the show, we speak to the former u.k. chancellor. today is the day. of hours, weter find out whether the fed will raise rates for the first time since 2006. opinion is split as to whether they will. just over half of the economists surveyed do not expect a hike today. they do not see a case for a -- ratge hike this month. >> it is down just a tad. , pretty much the same story. you are seeing it right across

europe. everybody is waiting for the fed announcement. another interesting story is all alteise. digest thetarted to various scenarios and question exactly how much cost savings might be in it. the reason why we are here today is we'll want to know what the fed is going to do. this is the table of the contracts. this is the september contract. what the fed does is it targeted benchmark rate. , traders think that in the month of september, that almost 17be around

basis points, pretty much right in the middle of that 0-25 basis point range. come february, they see it right in the middle of the 25-50 basis point range, which is another long way of saying that traders are pricing in a 25-basis point hike, the hike we are waiting for in february. at least that is what traders are expecting. we know that the probability, when you look at it, of a high todaytoday -- hike rate is basically one in three. a narrow majority of economists are not expecting it, but janet yellen gets the final word. francine: thank you so much.

ryan chilcote with your market check. ray delly l, the bridgewater associates founder, says he does not see a rate hike. whether theycare raise 25 basis points. i don't see the reason for it, frankly. 2007, i was watching this incredible level -- bubble happen. the fed just give attention to the gdp gap and they missed the whole bubble and we had an economic collapse. we have a situation in the mid-part of a cycle now and what they are worried about -- we have a lot of liquidity around -- when i look at this, there arelittle glimmers, there always little glimmers, but i think they are worried too much about the short-term debt cycle

and not about the long-term debt cycle. i don't give it -- get it, given the asymmetrical risks. look at the world. tell me the countries outside that should be tightening monetary policy. they all should be easing. francine: ray dalio, there. do you care if the fed raises rates? let's bring in stephen gallo. i bet you care if the fed raises rates. yes, we do. it is monumental. francine: i have heard it called even a dovish move if they raise rates. psychologically, this is important. it is not priced in, really. stephen: into the fx markets, we don't think it is. it is less than half of the

record we reached for the cycle back in january. fx overall is not expecting a hike. if you look at the implied volatility curves going back to the end of last week, there was a kink in the curve, indicating that people expected some degree of risk today, but the kink was not significant. hedging activity would have been even more significant, making a larger kink if the fx markets thought they were going to do something. manus: how do you position yourself -- francine: how do you position yourself ahead of it, nine hours ahead? stephen: our view is that of positivee amount they can get by continuing to wait are rapidly diminishing. if they do nothing today and are hawkish about 2016, there will probably be more market

uncertainty. if they do nothing today and are dovish about 2016, they will probably reverse the normalization they have worked for for two years. we think it is a lose-lose. manusfrancine: you are for a hie today. are you not concerned they will have to reverse it? hikeen: we think a dovish soothing market fears about 2016 probably reduces the risk they will have to reverse it. francine: if you are the bank of england, how much are you looking at what the fed does to decide whether early next year is a good way to also hike interest rates? stephen: we think the bank of england has given good indication that they want to lag the fed. the risk is that the bank of

england rate hike expectations are brought a little bit lower. the january to march part of the u.k. curve, there were probably be a little bit more of a repricing of a hike. francine: what are you expecting if we do get a rate hike? stephen: we think they will move the range up, but not necessarily that they will move toward the middle of that range. in the press conference, janet yellen may express keeping it closer to the bottom of the 25-50 band. as the normalization gets going. going to see we outflows from emerging markets and currencies? stephen: our overall view on the dollar is that the cycle is coming to an end. there will be some additional em and thatd added

is limiting the downside forecast for the euro-dollar. we need risk appetite to increase. willther thing that provide support for the dollar is reserved portfolio rebalancing. they will need to rebalance portfolio toward dollars. the outlook is still favorable, but the peak overshoot occurred earlier this year. fx markets tend to overshoot. like productivity growth differentials, growth rate differentials, inflation rate differentials. that overshoot for the dollar probably occurred earlier this year. it is a dovish hike is basically what it is. francine: interesting. thank you so much. stephen gallo stays with us.

we will be talking about the rest of the central banks. mark carney has signaled that there is a chance that the bank of england may raise rates in early 2016 as the economy continues to grow and inflation pressures pick up. >> if the economy follows the path strongly consistent with the forecast, then the decision will come into sharper relief surrounding the turn of the year. francine: a cable operator has agreed to buy another. altice'saccelerates share in the u.s. at least three people are known to have died in the 8.3-magnitude earthquake in chile.

the second republican presidential debate took place in california last night. this time it got personal. the more politically experienced candidates tried to gain ground against donald trump. is a qualityere that is entertaining about mr. trump. but i am very concerned about having him in charge of the nuclear weapons. i think his visceral response to attack people and their appearance, my goodness, that happened in junior high. are we not way above that? [applause] >> i never attacked him or his looks. believe me, there is plenty of subject matter, i can tell you. [laughter] francine: it did get personal. stay with bloomberg. janet yellen will take to the podium later. ahead afterto look

this very short break. stay with us. ♪

>> i do believe that the fed is not going to hike interest rates in september. but don't think they are going to wait until next year. whatever they do, nobody will say, we are discovering something which is entirely new. >> i have a lot of trouble with

this idea, let's do it now and hold our breath. if you really don't know that you have room to raise it for a while, why are you starting now? >> i think that the domestic case for raising rates is solid, it has been for a while, they should have moved when both domestic and international limits were aligned. >> are the conditions facing the u.s. economy, in terms of the objectives of an collation and unemployment, such that an increase make sense? that is the question. >> if there is any reaction, it is going to be mild -- i'm talking about the u.s., now. >> this is much more psychological than not. it is much about setting precedent. if the u.s. economy is in anything like normal shape, 25 basis points should not matter that much. come of theon't

narrative about why they don't is important. >> i don't think they should do a trickle-out hike because they want to start hiking. i think it would be poor judgment. and theings go badly rest of the world, financial conditions intensify from here, in that case, they should push in 2016. ♪ francine: those were some of our key guest weighing in on the fed rate decision over the past week . let's continue the conversation with another key guest, stephen gallo. we are also joined by mark gilbert. we are talking a little bit about outflows. mark was making a very good point about forward guidance. we are in this mess with the markets don't know whether they are coming or going because there was a communication issue. mark: i think forward guidance

has been a failure. market interest rates. we just had a bunch of clever people who absolutely divided economists and strategists. you should not be in that position. francine: do you agree? that forward guidance was there to give us an indication. it is really split 50-50. stephen: i believe central banks every foreign -- have reformed themselves over the last 5-7 years. since thel banks, dawn of quantitative easing, have been experimenting with quantitative easing. be angoing to experimentation on the way out, by default, it makes sense. experimentation on the way in and on the way out.

as they continue to normalize monetary policy. francine: will they talk? janet yellen will talk quite a lot about china or will they focus domestically? mark: i would hate to try to come up with the remarks they give. increase, no increase, dovish, --kish -- that makes tricks matrix is going to be really difficult to negotiate. the worst-case scenario is they hike and they go hawkish, but that seems unlikely given the inflationary back drop. if they don't change and they are dovish, that would suggest, why are we even in this situation of talking about a rate hike? stephen: yeah, i agree. we think the first risk-off scenario is if they are very hawkish. that would take the markets hugely by surprise.

theyther scenario is that do nothing today and they are also hawkish, so the market knows the rate hike is coming, but they get the sense the fed are scared to pull the trigger and we think that would lead to a risk-off situation. we think weighing all of the complex factors, u.s. conditions, international conditions, they are best served by delivering a small rate hike and then soothing on the communication process for 2016. francine: where do you expect rates to be at the end of 2016? stephen: look. as you can see from the different views. debate.very widely open the fed may have to change the multiple time in this experimentation process. at the moment, they have the roughly 90-100g basis points by the end of next

year. we think the fed is probably satisfied with that given the current backdrop. mark: the point about experimentation is very good. my worry is that the world costs skewed situation, it is fine to experiment on the way in. when you are easy, you can do as much tinkering and seeing what works and what does not. the exit strategy is a very different scenario. ,rying to land the helicopter that is where they have gotten themselves into a bit of a bind, a bit of a sticky corner. mark carney said, it is ok if we raise rates and then we reverse. no, it isn't. that is not price stability. it would be the worst of possible worlds to raise and reverse. stephen: one of the reasons we had the issues we did in 2008-2009 is that macro prudential policy was to lose in

the previous decade. we are very concerned about the medium-term outlook and risks globally. we would hate to see the unwind from the current position that we are getting ourselves and with imbalance is -- imbalances be even larger because rates were kept to low a second time. francine: guys, thank you so much for joining us. heads west.ltice they purchased america's cablevision. we have deals -- details next. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." altice is upping the ante in america. the european cable operator is trying -- buying cablevision for nearly $18 billion. what does this actually mean? >> it makes altice a real player in the u.s. cable market. it had done one prior acquisition in the u.s. with a sort of regional player in the midwest. cablevision is the big leagues. it owns "newsday." it is a prominent company.

drahieally makes patrick a media mogul or cable mogul in the u.s. and makes altice almost half an american company in terms of revenues. it is a really transformational deal. francine: what does it tell us about the u.s. pay-tv industry? >> we have seen an incredible amount of dealmaking in the u.s. .ver the last 12-18 months at&t buying directv. charter communications and time warner cable coming together. what is happening is these countries are trying to consolidate, trying to get bigger, because they are not just competing with each other anymore. they are competing with netflix, amazon, apple. they want to have significant aboutin negotiations access over content. they want to stand up to the big gorillas coming from the west coast to challenge their business model. francine: this means that we are

probably going to see more consolidation. will altice be part of that consolidation? >> i think patrick drahi has been very clear. he is a very ambitious guy. a billionaire many times over and very sanguine about wanting the u.s. to be a part of his strategy. there is still more to do. the u.s. cable market is surprisingly fragmented. there is also the question of mobile. if you do have a large cable or large sixth line telecommunications presence, why not add a mobile asset. t-mobile is out there. we could see something like that down the road. francine: thank you so much for all that. bloomberg's chief business correspondent. up next, we speak to the former u.k. chancellor. we will also be talking about the fed. i want to get his thoughts on jeremy corbyn and whether this

country is in a worse position when they talk about the eu referendum, what it means for investment and business in the u.k. and london. follow us on twitter. ♪

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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." i'm francine lacqua. here at the top headlines. altice has agreed to buy cablevision in a $17.7 billion deal. the move accelerates the european company's expansion in the u.s. has a 22% premium over last night's closing price. at least three people are known to have died in the earthquake that struck chile. ile's president said the

government is assessing the damage and warned of the potential for strong aftershocks. we are just hours away from the most closely watched federal reserve decision in years. traders are pricing in a 30 cent chance that the fed will raise rates when the meeting ends later today. goldman sachs says markets are vulnerable because no one can agree on what the fed will do. let's check what the markets are saying. jonathan ferro has the latest. jonathan: a very good morning to you. it is fed decision day. will they go? yes or no? is this the calm before the storm? markets are treading water. 0.25%. up by flat in the city of london. as for the federal reserve

decision, if you want the long-term outlook, have a look at that interview with ray dalio and tom keene. treasuries are at the front end of the curve. yields have been pushing higher over the last couple of days. a little bit of a rewind, unwind in today's session. the move in the bond market, yields come lower, a weaker dollar in the g 10 space. down against seven major currencies. euro-dollar. a stronger dollar this morning. up by 0.33%. let's keep it very simple. go back to the statement of the fed. an improvement of the labor market. they said, some further improvement. are they reasonably confident that inflation will go back toward target in the medium-term? those can answer

questions, you could answer what they could do. i wish. francine: thank you for that great asset check. tom keene joins us from new york. it is that, fed, fed. you did a great interview with ray dalio. tom: michael mckee and i were pleased with that interview. francine, this is a most important day for the global economy, whether there is action or inaction from chair yellen at 2:00 p.m., roughly 7:00 p.m. your time. we will try to talk to a cross-section of people away from the hysteria of the moment. they have been huge benefits over the years of where the

putting green is for janet yellen. on "surveillance," sir martin sorrell will join us with the global ramifications of the reality of the economic divergence. ethan harris will join us. he has one of the most important short reads on the shift from greenspan to bernanke. he brings us terrific historical perspective. what i noticed yesterday within your interview was lloyd blankfein picking up that tone of this is a fed that should do nothing. francine: this is a fed that should do nothing. maybe they shouldn't have done so much on forward guidance. that is a whole of the debate area thank you so much. investors preparing for a possible rate hike. on this side of the atlantic, mark carney has signaled that the bank of england may raise

rates in early 2016 if the economy continues to grow and inflation pressures pick up. for more, we are joined by norman lamont. thank you so much for joining us. the fed decision is probably the most important we have had for a decade. how problematic is this? the markets seem to be used to monetary policy. it seems the world is upside down at the moment. it is an think extremely difficult decision. i'm very glad i don't have to make it. i didn't have all the data in front of me that they do when i did. they look only at the united states. if you were looking at the domestic data, there would be some case for an increase. but we have had these developments in china recently.

although inflation is very low in the west, we face the prospect of another wave of deflation, of falling prices, lower prices from china. that is perhaps going to slow down world trade. world trade is already slowing down. which may slow down and have an impact on the world economy. until recently, i was very strongly in favor of a rate rise. now, i would not do with this month. it is possible they might go for a very little rise. be just: that would saying, we need to normalize, we are on it. is it just better to hold off completely? are you worried about a recession? norman: the trouble is all data are transient and you have to try all the time to think what is on the other side of the hill when you don't really know what is on the other side of the hill . what is happening in china has

still to affect the western world. we have the effects of lower oil prices and commodity prices. then we are going to have chinese manufacturers prices drop lower than they have in the past. inclined tould be wait. i did not like this world of such artificially low interest rate. it has caused a lot of asset inflation area most importantly, it has caused immense distortions in pricing and markets. i don't really believe capitalism can work with such artificially low interest rates. francine: you talk about distortions. are we looking about the markets in the bubble that need a correction? norman: i think when this is over and we get back to normality, whatever that turns out to be, let's say it is higher interest rates.

i think a lot of things were mispriced that we did not know were missed priced. think a lot of things could have quite a big fraction. francine: what is your main concern? the deflation is a specter that banks do not take seriously? or that we could live in a world ?ike japan, in a spiral do we need to get used to the prospect of having a deflationary environment where we grow 0.5%, 1%, but not the end of the world? norman: i rather agree with that. i think that would what you would be called good deflation. be causing the psychology of people to defer purchases getting into a cycle of ever falling prices. i don't think we face that. francine: jeremy corbyn has

fascinated a lot of people in this country and the outside world. they don't really know what to make of him. you have known him for a long time. why was he elected? norman: i know him slightly. to first thing a would like say is i think he is a very nice person. i made a trip with him with other colleagues prior to the opening of the british embassy in tehran. and ad him interesting think anybody who attacks him personally is making a great mistake. last --person of the left, quite far left, by british standards. i think he is influenced quite heavily by his own constituency. he has tended, in politics, to paid,firstly on the lower

poverty, the cycle of poverty, that sort of thing. has then very interested in problematic regimes, problematic movements like hezbollah, hamas, and that has been quite controversial for him. i think the problem is that he is very far aligned from the views of most labor members of parliament. trying to create cohesion is very difficult in his party. francine: when you look at the u.k., they have done their business by being an open economy, one of capitalism, free markets. he is not a moderate. he is hard left. that heade the point wants to strip the bank of england of its interest rate setting policies. will he become more moderate? norman: i hate to say this

because i bumped into mr. mcconnell, but i think it was a mistake to a point john mcconnell and his views are really quite extreme. i don't think jeremy corbyn is interested in economics. i don't recall him ever making great pronouncements on economics. i would be very surprised if he could explain peoples qe to you. i would be very surprised if he could. that is going to be a great problem for him. willpect his tactic generally be to delegate a lot of work in parliament to his colleagues and he will be active outside the house of commons, as well. demonstrations, appearing at rallies, talking about optimism, the future, blah , blah, blah.

i don't think that will be enough to convince the british people. francine: the conservatives need an opposition because everybody ,eeds some kind of opposition especially when you are looking at some kind of referendum. we have already heard jeremy corbyn speak openly about his position. is he lukewarm to europe or is he for a brexit? norman: i think he is probably anti-europe and concerned about ,he dilution of workers rights what we would call lessening the impact of the social chapter. intonk he is being moved the position of sitting on the fence on europe. so many of his colleagues are with him.ed to serve thank you so much for

coming on. norman lamont. thank you. the world economy is about to get stress tested. are we about to see the first tightening of u.s. monetary policy in a decade? how chief asia economics fromspondent joins us live hong kong. what does it mean for asia? >> good morning. it is the most anticipated rate in some time. philippineske the are in good order. it would be a good thing for japan. there is a lot of view that the asian economy has decoupled from the american economy to some extent. the volatility will not be anything like it was 10 years ago.

at the same time, people point out that there are vulnerable economies in asia. the pros and cons, we will just have to wait and see what the fed does. francine: which countries are most memorable? lnerable?ble -- vu malaysia and indonesia. they have borrowed significantly in hard currency, u.s. dollar. rising interest rates will make that debt harder to service. falling currencies, rising interest rates, a growing debt pool in the meantime. francine: what about china? china is getting blamed for a

lot of global market turmoil, but it is actually in good order to handle the fed hike and even modest fed tightening. if there is downward pressure on the chinese currency, they have sufficient reserves to intervene for some time. toolhave a very powerful to support their currency. there was also the view that they don't have the same dollar aso the u.s. indonesia or malaysia. great analysis. thank you so much for joining us. up next, we visit the germantown offering refugees work for just one euro per hour. ♪

francine: welcome back. we are getting breaking news. ukrainian parliament has approved the debt restructuring agreement. we will have plenty more on that soon. here are some more of the top stories this morning. at least three people are known to have died in the 8.3-magnitude earthquake that struck the north of chile.

authorities evacuated coastal areas. said theresident government is assessing the damage and warned of the potential for strong aftershocks. south korea and the u.s. have warned pyongyang to not carry out any more nuclear tests. they could possibly make more nuclear weapons. south korea said any tests would elicit a stern response. police in hungary have fired tear gas and water cannons at refugees trying to break through a barrier on the southern border with serbia. hundreds of people have been tracked -- trapped at the crossing since it was closed on tuesday. europe is dealing with its worst refugee crisis since the second world war. let's stay with that story. as germany grapples with an expected 8000 refugees, a small town south of frankfurt is

offering the chance to work 20 hours per week for the sum of one euro per hour. hans nichols traveled there to learn more about a program that costs less than 4000 euros and how that is attracting interest from all over the country. meet a 26-year-old syrian refugee waiting for his german workpapers, but not waiting to work. the manager of the town's movie theater has given him a one euro job, part of a pilot program that could be replicated across the country. this job is just for connection with people, to learning more of the language. you can get more activity for relationshipmake

with human here. hans: a university graduate, he has mastered the theater's technology. the drama playing all across europe and especially in germany is not how to physically absorbent house the refugees, but how to integrate them into the workforce, how to find them their first job on the way to their dream job. the town of 24,000 south of frankfurt is a typical german community, but it has something different. from the 1990's wants to make integration easier. she wants to give the purpose. >> what they actually received is more than they get in the city they arrived in. they are useful, not just a burden. hans: she spends half her time explaining the project across the country.

15 of the refugees are participating. private companies cannot take part, but they can work at state agencies or nonprofit. point is to teach them to be german. >> it is important that they get paid jobs. it is important to give them a chance to work in germany, to give them an opportunity to learn how our society works. it is important in germany that you are right on time. hans: keeping german time seems easy enough, but mastering german verbs and a new alphabet is another matter. >> it is a different thing about germany. it is more different for language. to start conversation is hard. hans: to make language learning easier, he has the keys to the town's movie theater. francine: up next.

will they or won't they? we look ahead to janet yellen's big decision. stay with us. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." for a look at what we are watching for the rest of the day , we are joined by hans nichols. let me guess. what are we watching? is it the fed? hans: i think we are looking for the fed.

here is my advice for america. everyone should stay at the gym, take a spa day, nothing will happen until the federal reserve announces the rate decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern, 8:00 p.m. in germany, 7:00 in london. then we get the press conference 30 minutes later. , when had a colleague ronald reagan was assassinated, he claimed that nothing would happen, so he just went to the gym. if you have that kind of clarity that there will be no major news , you are more clairvoyant than i am. i have no idea what the fed is going to do. it is just bloviating until then. francine: you are absolutely right. european stocks are already fluctuating. this is eight years in the making. i think there is a serious question to be had on how they are going to do this mechanically.

if they do decide to raise rates, how they are going to do it. francine: thank you so much. keep it right here on bloomberg tv. stay tuned for the "surveillance" team. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. ignore aeconomy cannot

fragile china and the collapse of brazil. economists have never been more polarized. we speak with ethan harris and john ryding and danny blanchflower. martin sorrell on his new media marker. good morning, this is bloomberg "surveillance." .rom new york it is thursday, september 17. i am tom keene. are watching the donald carly show. >> they managed. managed to somehow create substance in the middle of that. tom: you really went after jeb bush. frame how weekly he did. is notink that politics about policy, it is about posture. jeb allowed