mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann, and with all due respect to cnn, we really appreciate all that native advertising. >> called respect. -- with all due respect. >> with all due respect. happy national hangover day, sports fans, if you were playing any republican drinking games. speaking of parties, since the debate, a half candidates did their best victory laps this morning, and although there really is only one true winner, her name rhymes with gnarly. she was nothing if not on message. >> joining us now, carly fiorina. >> carly fiorina is with us now.

>> carly fiorina joins us now. >> to you in the debate last night? >> well, i was very satisfied with the debate. >> i was very satisfied. >> when i went into that debate, half the audience had never heard my name. >> had never heard my name and didn't know i was running for president. >> it was a really important opportunity. >> this was a huge opportunity for me to continue to introduce myself to the american people. >> i think i successfully introduced myself to those who did not know me, and demonstrated once again that i'm the most qualified candidate on the stage to win this job. >> what i am finding, honestly, is if people hear me ncba and understand who i am and what i would do, they tend to be supportive. mark, assuming you think as i do that carly was the big winner, how do you think she is handling her victory lap? mark: anyone who has watched her grow as a candidate has been

surprised, but that has onbeen one of the stronger debates we have seen. she show the message and discipline. the key thing for her is to raise money. that is the most important thing and i will be curious to see how much they are able to raise. john: she did a lot of debate prep to get into the place she was, and she did kill it throughout. isiously, raising money important, but she has got to start getting ready for what is coming her way, which is a ton hp,ppo about her time in her business career is what killed her when she ran in california. barbara boxer -- it could kill her now. mark: but she is totally intellectually invested. she gets a case to make -- her business record is not as bad as they say but not as good as she said. this is not something to be blindsided by. it puts her in a different

position than some of the candidates who come seemingly out of nowhere. that performance was strong in her operation was just big enough to take a fair amount of advantage. hashtags and trends are all good, but the real barometer now for any candidate is does it improve their standing in key states in national polls? that is how you raise money and leverage a good debate performance. john, county of think that people who did well last night, starting with carly fiorina, and also marco rubio, chris christie -- how do you think -- what do you think the likelihood as they will move up in the polls? john: i think carly is likely to get a big bump. she didn't see a big bump as many candidates did with her announcement. this was effectively her

announcement so she could get a decent rise. i have skeptical about whether chris christie or marco rubio will see substantial movement in their polling numbers. i don't think they broke through. mark: you see some people in the national press who say fiorina will go to second place on the strength of that performance. i am skeptical . i don't know that she could move that fast even though 20 million people watched the debate. i am skeptical that she will in one fell swoop move up that much. john: i am skeptical. your friend claimed she would be the front runner within a week or so. i don't think she will move up that far that fast, but she could easily be in a strong third, neck and neck with ben carson. it will be interesting to see if she does move up a lot. i don't think we will see christie or rubio move that much. it will be interesting to see whether the new establishment panicking over trump, over

safe place her as a to go rather than trying to resurrect some of the other, more traditional establishment candidates. john: i totally agree. the other interesting thing to watch will be what happens to jeb bush. some people thought he did pretty well, i thought he did pretty well. what happens to bush's numbers -- that will be a big thing to watch. i am not sure where that will go. we will talk about scott walker and second -- as he continues to hemorrhage, where do those votes go? mark: i will say one thing -- her performance last night means unless something goes badly wrong she will the on the d list. john: absolutely. ok. speaking of winners, losers. and speaking of losers, scott walker. today on "morning joe," he said he decided to take all his eggs, organize them, and place them in a basket. >> i think we are putting all our eggs in the basket. we are committed to iowa and we think it will make the case.

john:. walker is going from first place to 10th place. is donors believe he is in peril. there is talk of him losing the campaign manager in dropping out. john cleese has passed on -- he is no more -- he has ceased to be -- he is stiff -- he is and ask candidate -- an ex- candidate. or is he? mark: i normally think people overreact to short-term blips, and i don't see why anyone should get out of this race when we have two front runners in trump and carson. but i have to say, i am stunned at what i'm hearing, even from walker allies. the fundraising is going to be keys. -- to be key. if this leads to drying up of the funds, it may be that governor walker doesn't have a way to go forward.

the basket of iowa where he is now in his dented and there is a hole at the bottom precisely the size of an egg. john: [laughter] i think putting all your eggs in the iowa basket would make sense if you were close to where you were a few months ago. he is doing it because he has no other place to go. mark: nowhere in south carolina, nowhere in nevada. all in on iowa. that is tough. john: i think the donors are saying bye-bye. mark: coming up, a former romney adviser. we will borrow his brain to talk about his new book. is about football and his dad. and more about the republican party, the debate, and where the nomination stands. all that after this word from our sponsors. ♪

john: our guest tonight is a veteran republican strategist.

he is also the author of this book, "the last season," about college football. we will talk about the book in the next segment but for now we are taking advantage of your being here to talk about the republican nomination. you worked for george w. bush. let's look at jeb. big moments from last night's debate. >> you know what? as it relates to my brother, there is one thing i know for sure -- he kept us safe. [applause] i don't know if your member, donald. remember the rubble? you remember the firefighters? that the clear singer united states would be strong and fight islamic terrorism, and he did keep us safe. john: you are proud of your family, just as i am. --

>> you are prone of your family, just as i am and your comment was completely inappropriate. >> i hear phenomenal things -- i hear your wife is a lovely woman. i don't know her. >> she is, she is the love of my life. quite a you apologize to her? >> know, because i said nothing wrong. >> 40 euros ago i smoked marijuana and i admit it. i'm sure other people have done it and mena want to say it. my mom is not happy that i did. [laughter] >> ever-ready, it is very high energy, donald. [laughter]

john: howard his skills? -- how are his skills? >> everybody has to be true to themselves and what's interesting about this is that he is consistent. he doesn't seem to be acting in any of these. let's see who jeb bush is. the question is how primary voters will react. i think he wears well. as opposed to trump. jeb, is working for would be betting that the more that they see him, the more they will be comfortable with him. i think the process we are in now isn't about selecting a nominee, it is something much more frivolous. howard his skills? -- how are his skills? >> everybody has to be true to themselves and what's interesting about this is that he is consistent. he doesn't seem to be acting in any of these. donald trump is having a lot of fun, hanging out with people having fun. two things will happen -- he will have less fun as it goes on, the party will be as much fun, and the people will start asking themselves, who really wants to be president of the united states and represent the party? talked to a lot of people -- your former bush colleagues -- who said that if george w. bush were in the

nomination against trump you would drive the guy out in two weeks because of his better skills -- do you agree? >> no. listen, we took a 65 point lead in new hampshire and lost in the 19th. think there are rhythms to these things. john: you don't think george w. bush would be any more skilled at dealing with trump? not better or worse, just different? >> just different. john: stuart, i want to ask you more about the debate, and think about what the biggest winner and then the biggest loser. carly fiorina gave a dominating performance last night and i think you would probably agree with that. if you agree that she did well, what would you do, what would you tell her if you were advising her, to help her to capitalize on her performance? >> i think the last think she needs is more advice. i think she did really well, and

i think it is good for all of them that she is there by contrast. i think she raises everyone's game. i think she seems very comfortable, and i think that is the key. she seemed to be hitting and know that they can sustain, or was this way above what they normally do? it that is the case it is usually a bad sign. let me ask you about the biggest loser last night, scott walker, who has been in a bit of a tailspin for the past few months. if you got a call from madison today, or from milwaukee, and the walker campaign said, sos. we need you to come here and turn this thing around. you had no choice but to take that job. what would you do in that circumstance? >> i thought walker was pretty good. i think that is kind of who walker is. i think he had a lot of oomph. debates,d in 11 people

to win it in one night. if you try you will end up looking silly. to keepwalker has got being walker and hope that that is something the republican voters turned to. he is talking about what he has done, about what he is going to do. playere to put your best in your best play and hope it works. mark: take a little more broadly -- john: take a little more broadly. he has a record, he has a strength and weaknesses. diagnose what you would advise him to do to turn his broader political circumstances around. >> i think all of this will come down to the future, into can best change what is wrong with the country now. what i would advise him or any of these candidates is to talk about the future in a specific

as possible term. one thing we are not seeing is a specific agenda. if he had four or five things he wanted to do, specifically, proof of why they would work, that would be positive. mark: you have been a leading trump skeptic all along -- he thought he wouldn't even run, you still think you may not put his name on the nomination ballot. are u.s. skeptical about carson? -- are you as skeptical about carson? don't think carson will be the nominee. mark: where will he fall? >> i think he will fall to giving a really big speech at the convention. mark: currently he is in second place in the polls -- what will cause him to fall? >> i think that people will decide that they need someone who has some political experience in office. it is too much of a leap to go from being never holding that office to holding it.

mark: will have to happen for you to say this trump thing is for real? >> he would have to win. he would have to go out and win iowa, new hampshire. mark: and today you put the chance of his winning at 1%? >> 0. mark: sure primary? -- new hampshire primary? >> 0. i just think -- what do we know about republican voters in iowa, the caucus voters? what do we know about donald trump and how he squared circle? i can't see it. can you imagine this person getting elected governor of that state? would donald trump get elected governor of iowa? mark: we will have more with him on his new book, "the last

season," after this. ♪

john: your back with the republican strategist stuart stevens, author of "the last season." this is part memoir, part history. tell people who are interested in buying the book what they will find if they pick it up. >> when i grew up in mississippi, a lot of the ways my father and i connected was through college football. we tried to keep that connection throughout our lives. but i got pushed a different direction and he had his career. after the romney campaign in 2012, i really found myself thinking a lot about what was important in life. he was turning 95 in december of that year. the following fall, he and i and my mom went to all of the football games together.

it is about fathers and sons and sports and growing up in the south. are a bigou you are character in the book but so is your dad -- tell me about him. >> he is 97 now. he is the oldest living member of the student hall of fame, which he gets by default at 97. theseher is one of classic greatest generation characters come yo. many sawnto the fbi, all of his friends in combat. he volunteered and went into the navy, served three years in the south pacific, came back, bills this law firm with his college roommate that is now the biggest firm in mississippi. john: the answer to this may be obvious, but enunciate -- why is sec football such a big deal in the south? >> a profound question, in part

because there are no professional teams, really. that have a lot of impact on the friday night lights concentration. time, when the south wasn't very good at much, it was good at football. there was this inverse pride in football that people clung to. i think there is something about the violence of football that appeals to southerners. in a special way. the way in which football has changed the culture of the south, the culture of the south has been changed by football. particularly in the racial elements, i find fascinating. it is a parallel with rugby in south africa, the same sort of roles it has changed. it really was the first time for many southerners that blacks and whites cheered for each other. that is a very powerful force.

john: some of the most moving parts in the poker about you and your dad but some are about race and evolution. you said cheering for the team and whether the teens were integrated -- the political incidents that occurred around football in the university -- talk about that. >> in 1962, it was integrated. mississippi was probably the most separated state. arguably, that was the last battle of the civil war. riots, whiche the were tragic, on that sunday, which killed two people, there was a kentucky game in jackson, in which an extraordinary scene occurred where the governor of mississippi went down at midfield at halftime and gave a call for insurrection, that we

must stand up to the federal government. students took that and went back to the campus and helped breed this toxic atmosphere that led to the riots. really a fascinating year, 2, because we had integration and then we had the cuban missile crisis. have known you for a long time and you tommy to be a healthier eater -- but in this book, you and your dad split hotdogs. >> listen, being at any sporting event gives you absolute permission to eat anything. john: at an sec game there is no meat product at any hotdog. [laughter] john: i am looking at my card -- i have been instructed to do the cheer with you.

i have nevery, i will neve heard it. are you ready? >> hell yeah. almight, who th ehell are we? john: what is this? >> the history of this chair is modeled. -- muddled. it is one of these things are but no one can tell where it comes from so we float in the mystery of history. john: one more hottie tottie. this is called "the last season." you can find it in bookstores. thank you. we will be right back with a little bit awkward. ♪

mark: last nights that debate on cnn lasted approximately forever. more than once, we cringed.

here are some of the more awkward moments. ♪ mark: i watched rubio and cruise a lot and they were struggling. with you tell them? >> bring a fan. lot.n, drink a it is incredibly hard to keep your head in a debate like that. fordo you stay focused three hours in the moment? mark: i talked to one of the

candidates and said you should have gone into the back and say calmly when you are ready. thank you for joining us. 4/7are live 20 4 bloombergpolitics.com. ♪

emily: welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg west." i will speak with salesforce ceo mark benio coming up. benioff coming up. he fed leaves rates unchanged. what it means for technology/ ? a real life unicorn with new predictive technology. philanthropy.orce the story of the day.