mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann, and with all due respect to cnn, we really appreciate all that native advertising. >> with all due respect -- >> with all due respect -- >> with all due respect -- ♪ mark: happy national hangover day , sports fans, if you were playing any republican drinking games. speaking of parties, since the debate, candidates did their best victory laps this morning, and although there really is only one true winner, her name rhymes with gnarly. she was nothing if not on message. >> joining us now, carly fiorina.

>> carly fiorina is with us now. >> carly fiorina joins us now. >> did you win the debate last night? ms. fiorina: well, i was very satisfied with the debate. i was very satisfied. when i went into that debate, almost half the audience had never heard my name. had never heard my name and didn't know i was running for president. it was a really important opportunity. this was a huge opportunity for me to continue to introduce myself to the american people. i successfully introduced myself to those who did not know me, and demonstrated once again that i'm the most qualified candidate on that stage to win and do this job. what i am finding, honestly, is if people hear me, see me, and understand who i am and what i would do, they tend to be supportive. i was pleased with last night. john: mark, assuming you think as i do that carly was the big winner, how do you think she is handling her victory lap? what does she do next? mark: anyone who has watched her grow as a candidate has been surprised, but this has been one

of the stronger debate performances in a nomination debate we have seen. she showed the message and discipline. i think key thing for her is to raise money. that is the most important thing in the short term, and i will be tourists to see how much -- curious to see how much they are able to raise. john: she did a lot of debate prep to get into the place she was, and she did kill it throughout. obviously, raising money is important, but she has got to start getting ready for what is coming her way, which is a ton of oppo about her time in hp, about her time at loosen, -- lucen, her business career is what killed her when she ran in california. barbara boxer -- it could kill her now. she has to get rid of it -- ready for that. mark: but she is totally intellectually invested. she gets a case to make -- her business record is not as bad as they say but not as good as she says. this is not something to be blindsided by any facts that come up about what she did. it puts her in a different position than some of the candidates who come seemingly

out of nowhere. that performance was strong and her operation was just big enough to take a fair amount of advantage. now, hashtags and vines and trends are all good, but the real barometer now for any candidate who has a strong debate performance is, does it improve their standing in key states in national polls? that is how you raise money and leverage a good debate performance. often, someone will have a great debate departments -- performance and nothing will happen. john, how do you think the people who did well last night, starting with carly fiorina, and also marco rubio, chris christie -- what do you think the likelihood is that they will move up in the polls? stephanie john: i think carly iy to get a big bump. she didn't see a big bump as many candidates did with her announcement. this was effectively her announcement, so she could get a

decent rise. i have skeptical about whether chris christie or marco rubio did well last night. i am skeptical that a there one of them will see substantial movement in their polling -- either one of them will see substantial movement in their polling numbers. i don't think they broke through. mark: you see some people in the national press who say fiorina will go to second place on the strength of that performance. i am skeptical. i don't know that she could move that much that fast, even though 20 million people watched the debate. there was a lot of coverage. i am skeptical that she will in one fell swoop move up that much. john: i am skeptical. your friend claimed she would be the front runner within a week or so. i don't think she will move up that far that fast, but she could easily be in a strong third, right there neck and neck with ben carson. mark: it will be interesting to see if she does move up a lot. i agree, i don't think we will see christie or rubio move that much. it will be interesting to see if she does move up significantly, whether those in the extent -- in the establishment, panicking over

trump, over carson, see her as a safe place to go rather than trying to resurrect some of the other, more traditional establishment candidates. john: i totally agree. the other interesting thing to watch will be what happens to jeb bush. some people thought he did pretty well, i thought he did pretty well. not great, but pretty well. what happens to bush's numbers -- that will be a big thing to watch. i am not sure where that will go. we will talk about scott walker in a second -- if scott walker continues to hemorrhage, where do those votes go? mark: i will say one thing -- her performance last night alone means unless something goes badly wrong for her, she will be on the d list. john: absolutely. -- b list. john: absolutely. ok. speaking of winners, losers. and speaking of losers, scott walker. today on "morning joe," he said he decided to take all his eggs, organize them, and place them in one basket. >> i think we are putting all our eggs in the basket. we are committed to iowa and we think it will make the case. john: so scott walker is going

to put all of his eggs in the iowa basket, the place where he went from first place to 10th place. ruh-roh. his donors believe he is in peril. there is talk of him losing the campaign manager. in the words of john cleese, he has passed on -- he is no more -- he has ceased to be -- he is a stiff, he kicks the bucket, he is an ex-candidate. or, mark, is he? mark: i normally think people overreact to short-term blips, and i don't see why anyone should get out of this race when we have two front runners in trump and carson. a lot of establishment types think it will last. but i have to say, i am stunned at what i'm hearing, even from how leaklies, about things are. the fundraising is going to be key. if this leads to drying up of funds, it may be that governor walker doesn't have a way to go forward. you know, the basket of iowa,

where he is now in 10th, has been indented and there is a whole in the bottom of it precisely the size of an egg. john: [laughter] i think putting all your eggs in the iowa basket would make sense if you were close to where you -- where he was a few months ago. he is doing it because he has no other place to go. mark: nowhere in south carolina, new hampshire, or nevada. in iowa, that is tough. john: i think the donors are saying bye-bye. mark: coming up, a former romney adviser and political strategist. we will borrow his brain to talk about his new book. is about football and his dad. and more about the republican party, the debate, and where the nomination fight stands. all that after this word from our sponsors. ♪ ♪

mark: our guest tonight is a veteran republican strategist.

he advised many republicans to run for office that one, some have lost. he is also the author of this book, "the last season," about college football. we will talk about the book in in the next segment, but for now are taking advantage of your being here to talk about the republican nomination. you worked for george w. bush. his brother jeb is running. let's look at jeb's big moments from last night's debate. mr. bush: you know what? as it relates to my brother, there is one thing i know for sure -- he kept us safe. [applause] i don't know if your member, donald. -- you remember, donald. you remember the rubble? you remember the firefighter with a dog around it? we sent a clear signal that the united states would be strong and fight islamic terrorism, and he did keep us safe. you are proud of your family, just as i am.

to subject my wife to the middle of a political conversation was completely inappropriate. i hope you apologize for that. mr. trump: i hear phenomenal things -- i hear your wife is a lovely woman. i don't know her. mr. bush: she is, she is the love of my life. why don't you apologize to her? mr. trump: no, because i said nothing wrong. mr. bush: 40 years ago, i smoked marijuana, and i admit it. i'm sure other people have done it and don't want to say it. my mom is not happy that i did. [applause] mr. bush: ever ready. it is very high energy, donald. [laughter] [applause] mark: we have praised him as a

political athlete. how are his skills? >> everybody has to be true to themselves, and what's interesting about this is that he is consistent. he doesn't seem to be acting in any of these. that's who jeb bush is. the question is, how our primary voters going to react to him? i think jeb wears well, as opposed to trump. if i was working for jeb, i would be betting that the more that they see jeb, the more they will be comfortable with him. i think the process we are in now isn't about selecting a nominee, it is about something much more frivolous. donald trump is having a lot of fun. it is fun to hang out with people that are having fun. two things will happen -- he will have less fun as it goes on, the party will be as much -- will not be as much fun, and the people will start asking themselves, who really wants to be president of the united states and represent the party? mark: right. i have talked to a lot of people -- your former bush colleagues -- who said that if george w. bush were in the nomination

fight against trump, you would -- he would drive the guy out in two weeks because of his better skills -- do you agree? guest: no. listen, i remember -- we took a 65 point lead in new hampshire and lost in the 19th. which you really have to work at. i think there are rhythms to these things. mark: you don't think george w. bush would be any more skilled at dealing with trump? guest: it would be different. mark: not better or worse, just different? guest: just different. john: stuart, i want to ask you more about the debate, and think about the biggest winner and then the biggest loser. carly fiorina gave a dominating performance last night, and i think you would probably agree with that. if you disagree, let me know. if you agree that she did well, what would you do, what would you tell her if you were advising her, to help her to capitalize on her performance? >> i think the last think she needs is more advice. she is doing great. i thought she did really well. i think it is good for all of

them that she is there by contrast. i think she raises everyone's game. she also shows a different side of the republican party. i think she seems very comfortable, and i think that is the key. she seemed to be hitting and -- hitting a note that they can sustain. or is this way above what they normally do? is a bads the case, it sign. she seemed outside her comfort zone. john: let me ask you about the biggest loser last night, scott walker, who has been in a bit of a tailspin for the past few months. if you got a call from madison today, or from milwaukee, andn . and take what would you do in that circumstance? guest: first, i thought walker was pretty good. i think that is kind of who walker is. i think he showed a lot of oomph.

it is hard in 11-person debates to win it in one night. if you try, you will end up looking silly. i think walker has got to keep being walker and hope that that is something the republican voters turn to. that's who he is. he is talking about what he has done, about what he is going to do. you have to put your best player , run your best play and hope it works. john: take a little more broadly. it's like the dogs have not been eating the dog food on walker for a while now. he has a record, he has a strengths, he has weaknesses. diagnose what you would advise him to do to turn his broader political circumstances around. not just the debate performance. guest: i think all of this will come down to the future and who can best change what is wrong with the country now

as possible term. one thing we are not seeing is a specific agenda. for any of the candidates. if he had four or five things he wanted to do, specifically, and proof points of why they would work, that would be positive. mark: you have been a leading trump skeptic all along -- he thought he wouldn't even run, you still think you may not put his name on the nomination ballot. are you as skeptical about carson? guest: i think they are very different. mark: you are skeptical about trump. guest: i don't think carson will be the nominee. mark: where will he fall? guest: i think he will fall to giving a really big speech at the convention. mark: but what will cause is -- he is currently in second place in the polls -- what will cause him to fall? guest: i think that people will decide that they need someone who has some political experience in office. it is too much of a leap to go from never holding an office to

holding it. mark: what will have to happen for you to say this trump thing is for real? guest: he would have to win. he would have to go out and win iowa and new hampshire. mark: and today you put the the iowa his winning caucuses at what percent? guest: zero. mark: new hampshire primary? guest: zero. i just think -- what do we know about republican voters in iowa, the caucus voters? and what do we know about donald trump, and how do you square that circle. i can't see it. can you imagine this person getting elected governor of that state? i think that is always a useful test. would donald trump get elected governor of iowa? mark: would jesse ventura get elected governor of minnesota? guest: in a three-way race. mark: fair we will have more point.

with him on his new book, "the last season," after this. ♪ ♪

mark: we're back with the republican strategist stuart stevens, author of "the last season." this is part memoir, part history. tell people who are interested in buying the book what they will find if they pick it up. >> when i grew up in mississippi, a lot of the ways my father and i connected was through college football. particularly on this -- ole miss football. we tried to keep that connection throughout our lives, but i got pushed a different direction, and he had his career. after the romney campaign in 2012, i really found myself thinking a lot about what was important in life. he was turning 95 in december of that year. following fall, he and i and my mom went to all of the football games together. that was sort of the spine of

the book. it is about fathers and sons and sports and growing up in the south. mark: so you are a big character in the book, but so is your dad -- just tell people about your dad, how old he is, what he does now, and his attitude toward ole miss football. guest: he is 97 now. he is the oldest living member of the student hall of fame, which he says you get by default at 97. my father is one of these classic greatest generation characters. he went to law school, then he went into the fbi, saw all of his friends in combat. he volunteered and went into the navy, served three years in the south pacific, came back and builds this law firm with his college roommate that is now the biggest firm in mississippi. mark: the answer to this may be obvious, but enunciate -- why is sec football such a big deal in the south? guest: it is a very profound

question, in part because four years the south had no professional teams, really. i think that had a lot of impact on the friday night lights concentration that you had. i think that for a long time, when the south wasn't very good at much, it was good at football. there was this inverse pride in football that people clung to. i think there is something about the violence of football that appeals to southerners in a special way. the way in which football has changed the culture of the south, and the culture of the south has been changed by football, particularly in the racial elements, i find fascinating. it is a parallel with rugby in south africa, the same sort of roles have changed. it really was the first time for many southerners that blacks and whites cheered for each other. that is a very powerful force.

mark: some of the most moving parts in the book about you and your dad -- are about you and your dad, but but some are about race and evolution. you said cheering for the team and whether the teens were integrated -- the political incidents that occurred around football and around the university -- talk about that. miss was 1962, ole integrated. mississippi was probably the most segregated state. arguably, that was the last battle of the civil war. the day before the riots, which were tragic, on that sunday, which killed two people, there was a kentucky game in jackson, in which an extraordinary scene occurred where the governor of mississippi went down at midfield at halftime and gave a call for insurrection, that we

must stand up to the federal government. students took that and went back to the campus. it helped breed this toxic atmosphere that led to the riots. it's really a fascinating year, 1962, because we had integration and then we had the cuban missile crisis. it was also the last year that ole miss won a national championship. mark: i have known you for a long time and you taught me to be a healthier eater. a constant motif in this book is you and your dad splitting hotdogs. guest: listen, being at any sporting event gives you absolute permission to eat anything. mark: you know that at an sec game, there is no meat product in any hotdog. [laughter] mark: i am looking at my card -- i have been instructed to do the -- try to do the old miss share with you.

i have to say, i have never heard it. i will try to read my part, but i'm not sure i will live up. are you ready? >> hell yeah. hotty toddy, god almighty, who the hell are we? flim flam, bim- bam, god damn ole miss . mark: what is this? >> the history of this chair is muddled. it is one of these things are but no one can tell where it comes from so we float in the mystery of history. mark: one more hotty toddy. guest: hotty toddy. mark: this is called "the last season." it is available now at your finer bookstores. thank you. we will be right back with a something just a little bit awkward after this. ♪ ♪

cnn: last night's debate on lasted approximately forever.

we laughed, cried, and more than once, we cringed. here are some of the more awkward moments. ♪ >> take a look at all the candidates. [applause] mark: i was in the hall and i watched rubio and cruz a lot and they were hot, but they seems to be struggling. what would you tell them? john: bring a fan. listen, drink a lot. -- guest: bring a fan and drink a lot. it is incredibly hard to keep your head in a debate like that. how do you stay focused for three hours in the moment? mark: it's very hard.

when i talked to one of the candidates, i said to him, you should have just gone into the back and said, call me when you are ready. thank you for joining us. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. for now, sayonara. the only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. emily: welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg west." i will speak with salesforce ceo marc benioff coming up. ♪ mark: -- emily: the fed leaves rates unchanged. what it means for technology? plus, a real-life unicorn with new predictive technology. and we talk salesforce philanthropy. if uber has benioff a hard. first to our lead, the biggest story of the day. the federal reserve deng