tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg September 18, 2015 10:00am-11:01am EDT
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day in the media business as well. our star analyst on hand to help us follow that story. a major name in online shopping opens its first brick-and-mortar location. is this the wave of the future? good morning. let's get right to a market check this morning. the day after fed day. stocks down across the board. we saw the same thing in europe. continuing to trade down. the s&p 500 down 1.25%. dow jones off 262 points and the nasdaq down 1%. take a look at the moves and treasuries. you might expect to see more of an impact of the fed's move.
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the 2-year note down about one basis point right now. 0.67 is the yield. the 10 year yield about four basis points down. investors worry about what janet yellen's move means about the state of the global economy. this take a quick look at oil. it has been such a wild ride for this commodity. we are currently seeing a drop to 45 a barrel. let's take a look at what is making the news this morning. in greece, the second national election in eight months. the greeks will decide whether iza and alexisyr tsipras. a's running against conservative democracy party -- they could end up in a coalition government. if let of refugees has led croatia to close all its border crossings with serbia.
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more than 13,000 refugees have entered croatia from the serbian side. hungry used force to push them away. russia says it's willing to send troops to combat in syria. that would mark a sharp escalation in russia's support for the assad government. russia sent tanks come artillery and personnel to syria in recent weeks. some details have come out about the new contract between fiat chrysler and united auto workers. they will get a $3000 bonus if they ratify the deal in the coming days. deal calls for some chrysler production to be moved to mexico. donald trump may have some explaining to do today. in a rally in new hampshire, he did not challenge an audience member who said president obama was not american. in thisa problem
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country. it's called muslims. we know our current president is one. you know he is not even american. camps were they want to kill us. that is my question. >> we will be looking at a lot of different things. a lot of people are saying that and saying that bad things are happening out there. we will be looking at that and plenty of other things. matt: the washington post asked trump about his comments. he said the bigger issue is that obama is waging war against christians in this country. the vatican is not happy with the white house plus guest list for pope francis. the white house invited transgender activists, a gay bishop and a nun who leads a group criticized for its silence on abortion. photosican worries that of the pope with those guests
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could be seen as an endorsement. a billionaire family in india has found the perfect weekend home. the former u.s. consulate in mumbai. the price is a cool $120 million. the family is asia's largest maker of vaccines. they paid a record price for the palace known as lincoln house. the state department outgrew the mansion several years ago. hopefully they will fix it up a bit when they move in. ,oming up in the next hour general motors agrees to settle a criminal probe by the u.s. justice department for $900 million. what is next for the company and ceo? buying cablevision in a deal that would create the number one cable provider in the u.s. what acquisitions mean for the entertainment industry. his fashion week ever really over?
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gilt groupe chair's launched its first in-person shopping experience. we'll get the scoop from the company's ceo. i want to get back to the federal reserve. they have decided to leave their interest rate target at zero. inflation remains a concern. my next guest says the fed should have started to normalize monetary policy a lot earlier in this cycle. the global backer strategist joins me from london. strategist joins me from london. it seems to me, aside from the home, situation, here at that is the biggest concern. there is not any inflation. >> that's right. that is a global problem. investors are very worried about the threat of global deflation,
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which is primarily emanating from the chinese economy. and the overhang of excess capacity buildup in the years when the chinese economy was growing at double-digit growth. deflation, arting tronger dollar is putting the reason why inflation is actually not just in america, but in all the major economies. matt: our global concerns well-founded on this issue? equities down 1% or more in the u.s. people running for the safety of bonds. is that because of the message that janet yellen sent yesterday? >> i think investors are
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certainly concerned that the fed might feel boxed in. certainly my view another other economists have expressed this view as well. the federal reserve should have the economy was not at the mercy of the global economic factors. something acknowledged in the fomc statement last night. if the fed is getting boxed in, the opportunities to raise rates are looking limited. the dollar is closing. concern of the international developments referred to in the fomc , i think investors are that the external situation is worsening. the fed is losing control, is at the mercy of external events. risk offorward, if the
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a made in china global recession is going to increase, then the dollar is closing on the fed possibility to raise interest rates at home. matt: if you look at fed funds futures, they are only pricing in a 44% chance that investors -- that the federal reserve raises rates at the december meeting. is 2016.ly what do you think about the probability of a move this year? >> investors are beginning to think that the opportunity for interest rate increases is diminishing. that's why the market's giving these relatively low probabilities. -- a loto reason depends on what happens in china. maybe we should be listening to the guys at the people's bank of china.
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what's happening in china is going to have a very significant impact on the global economy in 2016. the next couple of months will be crucial. we will be monitoring the chinese activity. we will be looking at the foreign exchange reserve, whether china's continuing to unload its reserves. all these things are quite crucial. displacing what we've considered to be important, such as the payroll reports. matt: i want to bring it back to that. tom keene and mike mckee were asking the question, is the old model broken? is the phillips curve no longer relevant? there is so much slack and labor force and we are at 5.1% unemployment. normally, that would push up wages sincerely. >> i think tom is right to focus
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on this so-called philip kerr relationship. changedrelationship has , things are different. the structure of the labor market has changed. looking back at how the relationship between wages and an implement worked in 1960, it's the longer relevant. a lot of people argue with good reason that the wage rate or the price of labor in the states is determined by the global price of labor, which is set by china. all the outsourcing that we are is meaning that you can have low levels of unemployment but no sign that wage inflation is picking up. with productivity growth on the long-term downturn, that's a worrying factor. -- it iss to the u.k.
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this case, it takes a little while for the repercussions to be felt around the market. you see volatility in the wake of the statement or the press conference. it comes back to the united have all theu strategists who've had time to think about it and write their pieces. it seems to be the general feeling among strategists that the fed's decision to not move reflects trepidation about the global economy. that seems to be helping contribute in the selloff today. traders have this uncertainty out there because the fed has not moved. all of that contributed to declines. if you take a look at what's going on with the sectors today,
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you have all the groups within the s&p 500 trading lower. commodities related stocks and financials taking the biggest hit today. jpmorgan is helping lead the declines. that's after jamie dimon said that jpmorgan's third-quarter trading revenue will be about the same as competitors. wells fargo and citigroup heading lower. we did hear bank of america's brian moynihan saying that recorded trading of and it will be down about 5%. .itigroup sees a similar drops if that happens for jpmorgan, not good news for the banking industry. it is not just the banks. it's other types of financials falling along in the wake of the fed. charles schwab down sharply. oil stocksancial --
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a big part of the down drop today. the big cap oil falling. oil itself is also falling. down more than 3%. matt: thank you for that. concern inhe fear or markets. general motors agrees to settle a criminal probe by the u.s. justice department for $900 million. doj investing -- investigating the copies faulty ignition switches. what is next for gm and the ceo? joining me now to discuss is bloomberg's auto editor from detroit. the company held a press conference yesterday precisely as everyone was paying attention to the fed decision and meeting. was that a coincidence? >> it may have been. it was around when the
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prosecutors held their press conference. it was an employee meeting. mary barra and the head of product the velvet spoke to the employees. i don't think they were trying to head under the fed. -- head of product development spoke to the employees. in after thise all came to light. she decided her main goal would be to change the culture of general motors. do you think she is succeeding in that? >> time will tell. and mark royce have done a lot to restructure the company. gm is such a huge bureaucracy. hundreds of thousands of people all over the globe. they created committees, they have a new team, new vice president in charge of vehicle safety, a new program called speak up for safety. if any employee or supplier see
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something that will put customers at risk, they are supposed to raise their hand. they been successful at that so far. how that plays out 20 years from now will be the real test if they really changed the company deeply. mary barra made some comments yesterday about the next three years. barra: the centerpiece is deferred prosecution agreement. the government agrees to defer execution of charges against general motors related to the ignition switch for three years. , if we meetyears the terms and conditions set by the government, federal prosecutors will seek to dismiss the charges in this matter will become legally closed. mattero you think the now is closed as far as investors are concerned? it has been a black cloud over the beginning of her tenure.
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the company seems to be firing on all cylinders, forgive the pun. is this behind them? >> pretty much. it only comes back to haunt them if they screw up again. they would have to do something really wrong again. verys already become responsive. to beave done -- they try more quick about doing recalls come identifying problems. for've done three recalls less than 50 vehicles. to get the problem off the road. they will get through the deferred prosecution. toyota is close to getting done with their monitor as well. matt: the other things she has done there, talk about the operating situation. the products they are making our award-winning.
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they are pulling out of markets that have taken losses. what do you think of the state of general motors right now? >> it is very strong in north america. they are doing great on their trucks, they have improved their cars. unlike in the last boom of the , gmstry, gas prices go up has a better chance to compete. they are investing heavily in cadillac trying to make that a strong part of the copy. you make money on trucks and luxury and the rest you do to stay in business. they are really working on those things. south america is a mess, china is hugely important and its growth is slowing. sales are down a bit in the auto industry. europe remains challenged to make money. they pulled out of russia, they are being very aggressive about the things they can really do stuff about. matt: they are making money
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matt: european cable tv giant altice will buy cablevision for $18 billion. that company has been owned by the dolans for over 40 years. the family stands to profit nicely from the deal. what does it say about the cable business that they are choosing to get out? alan sherman is here to answer the question. they have their finger on the pulse. do they know it's time to go? is getting uplan
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there in age, almost 90 years old. jim dolan has a lot of other things on his plate. he plays in a band. he is the owner of the knicks and rangers. cablevision spun off to other amc.nies, msg and they are still on the board of both of those companies. he may have decided it was time to sell. the other school of thought is that they are calling the top on cable. is asee cablevision troubled asset that has to compete with verizon fios. ptb revenue is going down. maybe the obama administration has signaled that regulation for broadband could be up the if the next administration follows their lead. all of those are troubling signs for the cable industry. matt: the dolans will still
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and rangers.nicks alex: that's right. none of those things are part of cablevision. matt: i tend to think of the dolans as an empire. they had separate assets. they are selling one of those separate assets. toice is taking so much debt buy this company. eight times earnings? alex: which is unheard of for modern-day cable assets. if you go back 50 years ago, this was not that big of a deal. cable's leverage ratio goal was to .5 times. this is 7.7 times. 2.5tio goal was to . times.
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using the credit rating agencies jump on this, downgrading cablevision and bondholders are not least. -- pleased. they are hung out to dry. matt: i'm trying to get some questions. alex: she knows cablevision better than anybody else. matt: we may not be able to speak about cablevision. that relationship may be so tight. thank you for joining us. , it has been a volatile year for media stocks. we will talk to star analyst .ess ♪
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banking system is much safer now than it was. he spoke this morning at a conference hosted by barclays is set banks have more capital and mortars the used to be -- i know and are more diversified the latest debate. >> bags will be much more restrict ied. --ot of thoughtful teammate will be made. anothermie dimon said of his concerns involve treasuries. many of them have never been an asian environment where the interest rates are rising. the obama administration is easing even one of the sanctions on cuba. news organizations can establish a presence. male and cargos,
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services, and religious organizations. next stop for the irs in its search for all sore -- offshore is believed. ze. americans may be using those accounts to dodge the attack is very factor and ground today on one of the largest development projects in west virginia state history. it is expected to create hundreds of full-time jobs and is only the second to be built on u.s. soil since 1971. about 1000 construction jobs become available when it begins next month. facebook is making it easier for journalists to sort through post 's and embed them in their stories. that will give reporters the same ability they have with post on twitter's website and will be able to check instagram for pictures related to global news events.
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geneva top the list of the world's most expensive cities according to a new study. a family of three pays more than 3600 dollars a month to live in zürich, before rent is counted. the third most expensive city is new york city. those are your top stories from bloomberg best at this hour. u.s. stocks are down across the board. we are seeing a little bit of recovery today you. the dow jones industrial average down less than 200 points. it had been a higher loss earlier this morning and we are only one hour into trading.
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it may have been a warning about the global economy saying that the fed could not rates. the 10 year is down three basis points to 2.16%. coming up on the bloomberg andet day, online shopping an actual store in brick-and-mortar me paul volcker near you. theill also talk about decision not to raise interest rates. the former ambassador to syria join us to talk about the migrants and more. arst off, it has been volatile year for media stocks. it is an incredibly diverse group of businesses. boosted some has valuations and cord cutting has had others -- hurt others.
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we get a better look. very nice to get you on the program. co me ask about this whole rd cutting that has searchmedia stocks the past month. it started with disney because espn is the big star of the media enterprises. it seems that some people have been shaving that out of packages. it is amazing somebody could live without espn. is this really happening? our people taking smaller à la carte packages? ? there is so much confusion in the video market. it is easy to say that consumers and viewers are jumping off of
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the video bundle. it is really about the valley. that is really not what is happening. the market is not growing. his declining slightly, but you have to breakup what is happening. first of all, disney giving forecast a year ago and modified it based on slightly lower subscriber forecast. their contracts are written differently than other programmers. pushed price pretty hard and they are not carried by 100% of pay tv to distribute her's. they are programmers pretty much 100% distributed. goodhave seen really affiliate growth. our view is that it will not completely fall apart as many investors think right now. there will be loads of skinny
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bundles. matt: skinny bundles are an offer of less content for less money? >> exactly. you will pay less and get a lot won't not see, for example, cablevision, they view themselves in the connectivity company. they have publicly see it that they do not see people migrate down to these skinny packages. idea is not new. skinny packages were offered five and seven years ago. at espn had a clause with time operatorsle and other that said we will allow you to offer this package, but if it becomes most popular package you have to kick espn into it. it's never did. it was never an issue.
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,att: when we see these stocks coming down five to 10% because of these media meltdowns, should review those as a bargain? is this the time to get it if this is not really happening? >> there are certain companies well protected on the video side of the companies that are well protected of the parent companies. fox, disney and comcast. if there really is a skinny package, the one that will have it all would be a hulu sponsored. in the. companies you would get sports, kids, general entertainment, reality, nonfiction, etc..
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a huge package of diverse offerings. we think that they are well-positioned and have the strongest networks anyway. companies have many other drivers. whys part of the reason john malone has been saying his vision for content has been to roll up these free radicals. there are other companies that are not well-positioned, talking about aliens the four stars, which he owns, or potentially discovery. maybe we're not that well-positioned and we should these companies together. we will have some networks that people want to watch and we could handle them up and have some leverage t. matt: give me some equities that you would not touch what do you
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not like? >> viacom is a cool. the bullish fool view visit is an inexpensive stock in we think it is a value for reason. the readings have been down dramatically for the last years they have profited the stock, but we think were the vulnerability will be over the next three years is the networks where the readings have declined just can't afford shooters to take every single one. they will consolidate and scrap off some of the lower ones if they have to. matt: thank you somebody dropping by.
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matt: we are an hour into the market day in his time to get you caught up on the action around the world i'm going to kick it off in asia. we closed down just under 2%. the shanghai composite put up just a little bit more. 4/10 of 1%. wasbig story out of region the property market momentum. new home prices in august rose in more cities than in july. this report, from hong kong. a half of these 70 cities saw
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new home price gains in august from the previous month. 35 cities compared to 31 in july. nationwide average prices rose for a third month. leading the price recovery that has been aided by cuts since november. larger city demand is expected to remain strong on cheaper borrowing cost and tighter supply. inventories in smaller cities are still relatively high and that is keeping a lid on price gain. matt: now let's head to europe where ryan is standing by with a look at markets there. me take you to the bond market because there are some exciting things afoot. not just u.s. bonds joined big moves, but also here in europe, take a look at the u.k. bonds in the 10 year. the yields down 11 basis points. germany down almost 12.
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one of the reasons why bondholders are happy right now. this weekend oktoberfest kicks off. euro, aook at the two-day chart. down a little bit right now, but still just barely. but it really want to show you, this is a 7:00 e.m. london time yesterday. that is when the fed spoke. the pound raising. it is held onto its games and is an dollar 56 territory and equity markets, it is pretty ugly. down nearly 2%. bit of a relief rally, europe,much of one word it is a sea of red.
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it is not pretty on the equity markets. we have read across the board in the wake of the fed and global economic concerns. the issue appears to be credibility of the fed. how quickly will receive rates go up, even more slowly than indicating? we can look at the futures market. this is really cool. you type: f a c, you could bring up this xl graphic area the dark blue line is the most recent thought from the fed. their interest rate reduction. we have a pretty gentle curve, but it is higher than for the market is putting interest rates. what this indicates is that market participants do not
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believe that rates are even going to be as high as the fed thinks they are going to be or projects they are to be paid there's an interesting divergence between market expectations and fed expectation. are looking at the 2-year note over the past two days. a big drop in yield after the decision statement came out yesterday. they have been racing even lower throughout the day today and those yields have been continuing to move lower root the 10 year yield continues to move lower. the dollar has been a little off the loan. slightly negative, but you can see this turning positive, vacillating even as we watch. theave seen a rebound in dollar versus other asset classes. matt: thank you.
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let me get you to the top stories of the day from the bloomberg terminal. in india the state government announced it was hiring low-level office workers to make applied.200 applicants that reflects the high rate of underemployment in that country. nfl and snapchat are teaming up on a partnership to deliver nfl content using the live stories offering. the nfl and snapchat say they have created a weekly programming schedule featuring all teams going all the way through super bowl 50. you have to be age 12 or under to understand. those are the stories we're following for you right now. manhattan real estate has weathered the crisis better than most cities.
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prices continue to set records for wealthy investors see a lot of you as a safe place to put their cash to work. we are still seeing incredibly high prices here as we always have. our sales slowing down, or just too much inventory? >> specific segments of the manhattan market, the ultraluxury. it has exploded in the last few years. after the session you saw a couple of elders build a very high end product. $100.5 million importance -- apartments. demandey saw the global they saw it as a haven for cash. and last few years we have seen almost everything that was getting old was 5000 square
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feet,. high price. it was targeting a very specific audience. what builders are seeing is that that need has been met, and there's a lot more of that kind of soap live. focusing on smaller units for a smaller price? >> the units are now that small, the price is not that small. but anything that is coming out of the ground that is not targeted to the ultra wealthy and not gigantic is actually news. the one aspect that has not been satisfied is anything that is not ultraluxury. there really is not that inventory. that a pricelding point that is under $2 million, you probably will have demand. matt: these are the luxury terraces that we're looking at over central park? >> the duplex penthouse.
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project that is under construction right now. that has not been priced yet. that will have a heist price tag and not fall under it. -- it is going to be for bedroom. really cutid is they out a lot of the four bedrooms and three bedrooms. they focused it on ones and twos the averaging of the appointments of the buildings will sell for average of $2200 a foot. for people listening outside of your city that seems crazy. matt: new york is terribly expensive. thank you for joining us. ahead, from online to brick-and-mortar rate the first
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matt: welcome back. in new york, fashion week is a big deal. if you are in the market for some new fall close they just launched their first in person shopping experience. the company's ceo joins me now with a look at why, what, and how. populars been hugely for years now. online shopping experience is grate but people want to touchdowns stock, see it, hold it, and take it home. this is the first place they can do that? >> that is right.
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online shopping is convenient, for sure, that is a mainstay of the illness -- business, making customers excited to come in and find something grate. people like to get to know a brand, to occasionally try something on and how that instant gratification. we are recognizing online is our mainstay in giving customers an appointment-based shopping experience. this mean i have to call and schedule a viewing, or does that mean you only show starting at noon? >> since we are an online company, we do not make you call. onopen up appointment slots weeks, and we sold out to
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of appointments in 10 minutes. it is exciting to see them respond. retailers were more mortar, and then they went online and i think this is a tocial case because you have look at 12 and see what is coming out in gc online retailers going back to store's? when you look at a lot of consumers, they say we love the convenience of online, we love the greens of long line, but occasionally, when i want to try to see what fits in either specific event, i want something physical. stores,never be tons of that is not our model. we can occasionally bringing consumers, and we are excited about that. the orderly results are very promising.
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we will talk about the day after fed today. challenges being felt well beyond the middle east. what they could mean for the u.s.. is tech biting the hand that feeds it? matt: good morning. pimm: welcome to the bloomberg markets. we are 90 minutes into the trading session. selloff today, been lacking in bonds areplace rate rallying following yesterdays no
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