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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  September 20, 2015 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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china's foreign policy chief. comeback, all is forgiven. greece reelects alexis tsipras. india's spot for asia, finance minister says new reforms will make india a beacon of economic growth in the region. we are going to speak live this hour to arun jaitley. japan's growing problem with ghost towns. it could leave up to 20 million homes vacant. all that and much more on "asia edge." a down day across the asia-pacific, stocks trending lower in most of the major markets. isnghai the only market that posting some upsides. some modest upsides. look at hong kong, the hang seng
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down by 1.5%. south korea, 2% drop. 2.6% move in australia. japan is closed today for a holiday. we are signaling another dismal start to the week. this on global growth concerns, trying to figure out the trajectory of the fed's latest interest-rate decision. those s&p 500 contract future signaling a third day of declines. rishaad: despite lowering its growth forecast, india will be the fastest expanding major economy over the next few years, being called an exception to the gloomy outlook. let's get more from the india summit in hong kong. stephen engle is there. steve: good morning.
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minister arun jaitley is meeting with potential foreign investors in hong kong. he is our special guest this morning. you are meeting with potential foreign investors. india has projected and one of the highest gdp growth rates of large economies. there are still a lot of pressures and growth concerns with the consumption, exports, car sales. the concerns will be there. we are not in a utopian world. there will be challenges. with a little more help from the external environment and a little more domestic private investment, we will grow much faster.
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we had a 7.3% growth rate last year. if there is a slow down in global demand, exports do come down. we must always remember that the export slowdowns coming at times related to value and not volume. 18% of the export market is petroleum products. there is about to be a valuation decline. >> and also weaker currencies. >> weaker currencies in the region. what are you hearing most from the potential foreign investors? barriers --stment mr. jaitley: there is a broad sense of satisfaction. aboutis an appreciation
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the reforms direction in which india is moving. there is a desire that india must move faster. --estors are looking for investors are positively trying to manufacturing sector. infrastructure needs a lot of funds. >> how are you going to get the consumer more active? mr. jaitley: india has a very large middle class. this is going to grow. the size of the consuming class in india is growing. .ages are going up have aggressive does the reserve
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bank of england -- how aggressive does the reserve bank of india need to be, whether to cut 25 basis points. do they need to be more aggressive? mr. jaitley: the reserve banks sense of judgment needs to be tested. factor in all of these factors. >> from the government's perspective, how much room is there? there've already been 75 basis point cuts. mr. jaitley: inflation is under control. you have plus three point something cpi.
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inflation under control. consistent -- inflationary pressures are not there. -- s 25 basis points mr. jaitley: i do not comment on this. >> if they do cut more aggressively -- estate,ley: real we will take a-- very balanced view. >> hedging a little bit saying he is going to look at inflation. how about the decision on the monetary policy committee? mr. jaitley: it has been
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discussed -- we are both on the same page. >> are you happy with the outcome? i think we are moving positively in that direction. governor? ok with the all i can tell you is the opinion of the central bank and the government is a converged opinion. the positions are broadly similar. click some critics have said the government might have too much say in monetary policy. what would you say to those critics? mr. jaitley: i only comment on the monetary policy. >> how about on the rupee? china devalued the yuan last
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month. one of the weaker performers since the day valuation. mr. jaitley: after that devaluation, it went down. it has recovered in the last session. it is finding its own level in the market. >> are you concerned about the effect on stein -- on financial stability? mr. jaitley: i don't think the yes, we are closely monitoring it. >> have about your fiscal targets? how confident are you that you can hit your targets? mr. jaitley: i am reasonably confident. i think we will be able to meet the targets. >> have about the escalation of state sales? fix theley: when we
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target, we factors all of these factors. kris revenues -- we will increase revenues. track record of meeting its targets. >> how about land reform? the big election coming up. mr. jaitley: i think that the land that is acquired for housing, industry, the states will make it available. people cannot be inadequate housing. states have a sense of responsibility and now they have stepped forward. >> you are here on the doorstep to china. lots made in the last year with high-level visits between the leaders of the two countries and building trust and building trade. last year, you served as defense
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minister as well. there have been some border conflicts. that is how both countries have behaved. in the last 40 years, there has been an understanding with regard to border management. border, to our western of course there are disputes, you have confrontations between the two countries and trying to resolve the disputes. that has been overshadowed. worried it could derail confidence? mr. jaitley: so far, it has not done so. it will depend on the global situation and the way the economy picks up. >> how much are you affected by the chinese slowdown?
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you are not a part of the chinese supply chain as much as others would be. impactedey: we are not by the commodity prices. forink the world will look -- along with china, they will not have to share the burden. >> i have to bring up some other on domesticcs have issues. tax,ping the retrospective better targeting for subsidies for food and cooking gas, making it easier to buy land, implementing labor reforms. mr. jaitley: we moved very well. the subsidies in the last one year has never been better before. >> that is your answer? you have not --
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mr. jaitley: i have followed the alternative route. doing it through the states. the election will have what impact on that? mr. jaitley: it will be a vindication of our economic policies. >> 7.3% growth. what will it be this year? mr. jaitley: thank you so much for your time today. back to you.d it minister of finance, arun jaitley. rishaad: china's economy is not as weak as it may look. talking about the china beige book. yvonne is taking a look at all of this. yvonne: we are seeing a different picture. even after the yuan devaluation,
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no collapse is imminent in this third quarter report. a very different tone. sachsard from goldman calling the response of policymakers ham-handed, awfully messy. a mixed picture, not the most disastrous as some have called it. global sentiment on china has veered sharply bearish. rishaad: where was the particular strength the beige book saw? servicese saw the sector which accounts for more than half of china's economy. they said job growth has step, wages as well. company profits improve. regional profits have weakened,
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but improved from a year ago. the beige book saying manufacturing is neither a microcosm nor a bellwether. rishaad: thank you. angie: chinese state council has addressed concerns about the slowdown and the decision to devalue the yuan. speaking exclusively with bloomberg, he says china's reforms will benefit the rest of the world in the long run. he said the recent stock market route is not reflective of the state of the chinese economy. not free from its own set of challenges and problems on the economic front. there have been some ups and downs in the stock exchange market. given china's economic development, given the fact that china is a developing country,
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some movement on the stock exchange in china should not equal the whole picture of the chinese economy. thee: he also touched on chinese president's visit to the u.s. this week. let supply and demand determine the value of rmb. steady inb is quite value. we will, of course, continue to reform in china. various sectors, including the financial sector. when people look back 10 years or 15 years, they will see that the market reform is really good, not only for china, but
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for the rest of the world. angie: you can catch more of bloomberg sues collusive interview later on in the program -- bloomberg's exclusive interview later on in the program. rishaad: greek voters have embraced the man -- alexis tsipras winning his second election in eight months. what does this victory actually mean for mr. tsipras himself? win.big this is a man who got 35%, his party, last night in the election. that is just shy of what they got in january. none of the enthusiasm that was january.p to that he had seen his popularity drop
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andafter turning around signing the bailout deal. that does not seem to have dented him this time around. what this means for the country going forward, some big challenges. this is a man who brought the country close to an exit. capital controls remain in place. he has a more cohesive party and there have been strong signals, feeling relaxed about the outcome of this election. there is a lot of work to do. rishaad: thank you for that. we have to take a break. ,e are having a look at the fed is it still on track to cut interest rates this year?
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>> almost 30,000 migrants have entered croatia since the surge started several days ago. the influx to it after hungary shut its borders with serbia, closing the northern route for migrants. could bey said there no solution to the problem as long as syrian president remains in power. united states will do more to help. the united states will increase our numbers for
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refugee resettlement in the course of this next year. at 70,000.we were we will now go up to 85,000 with 10,000 over the next year from syria specifically as we receive other refugees from other areas and in the next fiscal year, we will target 100,000. japan toina has urged promote regional peace and stability. the bills pushed by the prime minister will allow japanese troops to fight in foreign wars for the first time since world war ii. china's foreign ministry said japan must learn from history. south korea called on japanese leaders to focus on regional peace.
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the chinese destroyer and guided missile frigate took part as well is 1000 chinese troops, the largest drill involving china. off withlet's start the fed. tell us about the taylor rule and how it meets they should've moved. >> it was devised back in the volcker days. it constructs a rule of how the fed will behave. it works perfectly right until the time you started using it. it back tested fantastically,
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but it has not worked since. for the last five or six years, it should say interest rates should be higher than they actually are. the fed would have interest rates at 3.25% already. we have this fudge factor. is, economists are they have it at 1.25%, way below. we have this unquantifiable fudge factor, twice the size of the actual -- it is the new normal. , who becomes in charge? the global markets will say, we mustn't raise rates.
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it does not suit the economy. rishaad: there is a fundamental issue. economics is not an exact science. people seem to lose sight of that. -- you do not want to be at the beck and call of the markets. what would you be doing? mark: first of all, i would be at knowledge and my role -- acknowledging my role at the central bank. people think that making no decision is making no decision. as an investor, taking no decision is making an active decision of doing nothing. it has been bad for the u.s. economy. to miss allocate capital -- miss allocate capital.
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it does not matter about the price. the availability of credit to people who need it. i would be mindful of the bigger world, but give them plenty of time to do leverage. i would be raising interest rates to show the real world does not know what will happen. the longer you delay proper investment. i would be raising rates, that i'm am not the fed. angie: another perception is not working either, lowering rates, injecting liquidity. the problem is that is not flowing from the bank to the real economy. mark: one of the big problems has been, we had qe1 and that was fine. even qe2. operation twist, what is this doing? it has nowhere to go.
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it starts making mischief. we have also over the last six or seven years, all of those countries with a huge account surpluses have been trying to do something with this plot of cash. what is the cash doing? it has been borrowed by hedge funds to create synthetic assets. rishaad: i have to jump in here. we will see you in about 12 minutes time. angie: japan is closed for a market holiday. ♪
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rishaad: asian shares start up the week with a tumble on speculation that federal reserve could increase rates before the end of the air. three fed follows the makers argued over the weekend that hirer -- higher borrowing costs are still warranted. as bad as they look for the chinese economy, that according to a new survey. the latest china beige book says it is a myth the slow down is intensifying despite a stock market plunge and currency
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devaluation. capital expenditure rebounded. making india a friendlier destination for businesses is a work in progress come of that according to the country's finance minister. speaking to us a short time ago, arun jaitley said reforms are in the pipeline and the changes can make india into an economic bright spot in the region. rishaad: let's get the latest from the markets. market we have a sydney heading for the biggest loss in nearly a month. >> extending declines, sydney down two point 6% today. you do not typically see these kinds of moves in australia -- 2.6% today. you do not typically see these kinds of moves in australia. groups,ross industrial
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media companies. leadership by some specters, but these are the stocks that are moving. in new zealand, we did have disappointing consumer confidence numbers today. that is leading the kiwi lower. the banks are moving, australia and new zealand. kathmandu up 7%. let's take a look at japan. japan is closed today, no action, but we have seen investors piling in two the yen. -- piling into the yen. they are piling into government debt. china, shanghai composite trading higher. it has been swinging since -- between gains and losses during this session. the hang seng down 1.3%.
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sharesap -- macau casino have been active today. ooc.k out you really have to look across sectors today. you need to be looking within that space where oil is headed. gold favorable among some investors. angie: thank you. china's top foreign affairs decisionsays the imf had nothing to do with the government's devaluation of the yuan. in an exclusive interview with betty liu, he said market forces determine the value of the currency. >> we let supply and demand determine the value of rmb.
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speaking,b, generally is quite steady. towill, of course, continue reform in china in various sectors, including the financial sector. when people look back 10 years or 15 years from now, they will sue the market reform is really good, not only for china, but for the rest of the world. betty: 12 months from now, will the rmb be lower in value? >> it is natural for the currency to move either way. it is reliable currency and more and more people do their trade in rmb. i am sure that the rmb will continue to play a very healthy role in promoting not only
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china's economy, but the international trade and investment. betty: some have speculated that the devaluation happened, a decision by the imf not to include or at least delay the rmb's inclusion in the basket of currencies. does that influence the government's decision? thingse are two separate . of course, we have had good .ooperation with the imf we would like this cooperation to continue. i do not think there is any .onnection betty: were you surprised by how the markets reacted to the devaluation of the rmb? >> let me say this, every
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country has its own challenges and problems. every country should do a better job of their own economy. betty: should mind their own business. >> i don't mean that. what i mean is the chinese economy is a big one, but it is not that big. there are many players in the field. their economic performance fundamentally has an impact on the behavior of the financial markets. ,he difference between china the chinese stock exchange and the stock exchange of many western countries is -- there are far more institutional investors in the west and of course, always room for improvement for anybody.
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take ane people will appropriate and calibrated approach to what happens in the world in the financial market wherever it might be, in china or in other countries. people should be respectful to facts and to be fair and china is a positive force for good economic growth and will continue to be. betty: there were many other things to discuss. from the situation in the south china sea to cyber espionage. you can watch the full interview airing on monday at 9:00 eastern for those watching in the united states. here in asia, it is tuesday at 12 noon. investors havea watched their shares fall by more than 40% from the november peak.
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63%aturday, the lockup on of alibaba's stock ended. edwin.et more from you would expect there to be a plunge in the stock price. perhaps not? edwin: perhaps not. knowing this has been coming for a long time and i think investors are prepared. we may see a little bit of volatility. rishaad: we have yahoo! trying to hive off its shares. edwin: a big chunk of alibaba shares, yahoo! was trying to spin them off without incurring . hefty tax the irs potentially looking into the deals implications. at why theen we look
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stock market has fallen by this huge margin, is it because people are unsure the direction that alibaba is taking? edwin: we know what direction alibaba is taking. we are unsure whether we can galvanize growth. that is the top line. rishaad: let's look at what they have been doing. they have been buying bricks rather than clicks. edwin: they are trying to extend internet services into the real world beyond e-commerce. there is a lot of competition in this space. we will have to see how that proceeds. rishaad: what else have they been doing? edwin: they are trying to expand beyond china. that accounts for the lions share of the revenue. whether or not they can extend their business to places like india and brazil.
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angie: australia's new cabinet has been sworn in with prime minister malcolm turnbull making sweeping changes from the tony abbott era. scott morrison becomes treasurer. the 47-year-old forced a policy.e migration china is making further efforts to shore up growth with the premiere calling for reforms to state owned enterprises. they need to increase competitiveness by promoting mergers. china still is set to record its lowest growth in 25 years. -- macau's luck does not look like it will change anytime soon.
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tois in stark contrast january. since then, the slowdown in china has taken a toll. volkswagen's chief executive says he is deeply sorry after his company was exposed as having cheated. very sorry, he is personally sorry. looking lot of analysts at this case are thinking, he is the ceo, he was supposed to be in charge of development. either he did not know, did not know what he was doing, or he knew and he hated it -- he hid it. software that turns on to full pollution control only when the car is put on an official in missions testing. when you are driving it on the street, it could pollute 10 to
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40 times more than the legal limit. these violations could add up to $18 billion in fines, not to mention the justice department could pursue criminal prosecution. is ordering an external investigation, saying regaining customer trust -- vw is ordering an investigation, saying regaining customer trust is their priority. there was a so-called diesel engine -- clean diesel engine which was used in volkswagen cars, also audi. bw has halted the sale of its 2015 models -- vw has halted the sale of its 2015 models. all of this hating days before the ceo's contract was to be renewed through 2018 -- all of days before the ceo's contract was to be renewed through 2018.
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rishaad: people feel a bit cheated. shery: it is not affecting them directly at the moment. the only problem is it will pollute 10 to 40 times more than the legal limit. that is what the epa is saying. the average driver at the moment, they cannot buy those 2015 models. the certified preowned diesel cars are being halted in the u.s. fiction, we will take a look at why some say the chinese economy is not as bad as it may seem. ♪
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rishaad: we will check on some of the stories making headlines around the world. alexis tsipras will return to power increase. he managed to secure a new mandate despite the party rebellion over his acceptance to
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the european demands for more austerity. his party received just under 36% of the vote. tsipras will try to build the government with the same coalition partner as before. the paul has adopted a new secular constitution almost -- nepal has adopted a new secular constitution. the premise to made -- the prime minister made the proclamation. thousands of people who gathered outside the assembly building shared and waved the national flag. some religious enough the groups -- religious and ethnic groups oppose the document. pope francis met with fidel castro. an exchange of books and discussion about issues facing humanity. pope francis took a subtle jab
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at the communist system. me, let's talk about china. when it comes to reform, how much does it adhere to an ideology they have already preset? mark: i think they have an ideology of growing the economy in order to keep the people happy. it wants to do it by giving prosperity to its people. we need to get used to the fact that china is focusing on growing china. this'll reform program -- this whole reform program, they have set these things up. we seem to be reacting to it as if it is a new piece of news.
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usie: they kind of surprised with the devaluation. mark: we were not looking. your currency has to be volatile. not to volatile. -- not too volatile. job isn't believe their to tell the markets help to react before they do things. they set up a plan. the plan has been obvious for the last five years. you have to be careful not to put our western ideology on their five-year plan. rishaad: every time you come on the program, we talk about what china is doing, building the infrastructure. mark: it is not about stimulating exports. it is about the free movement of
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capital. you have to have the infrastructure. china is bigger than france, the u.k., and germany combined. here we are saying, china is growing very slow. china is changing and a lot of people made a lot of money at of china for the last five years and they have to adapt. there will be a new set of people making money. our job as investors is to identify those people. reformhow well is the coming along? we are seeing massive amounts of debt still being piled on. a lot of pessimism out there. mark: it is coming from the people putting their bets that the rmb was always going to go up. look at the reserve data. chinese companies have paid back
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$150 billion of u.s. debt. government have stopped doing that. levels below to see what is going on. not the dollar debt from the corporate, but the local government debt. if i am an investor, where do i put money? it is going to be in infrastructure. china is going to rebalance its own debt. that will come available to us. into will cycle its cash building its infrastructure. we will have to understand how they are moving their capital. this is a very different -- >> devils advocate question.
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you paint a unified picture of chinese leadership. it is not necessarily that way. there is an old school and new school within the government. you see the tension with market response. how does that washout? is a constant economy. is as diverse -- when you are changing and economy from the center, you will come up against vested interest. years, ite last two is overcoming a series of entrenched resistance. anticorruption has been a tool that is helped. continues. it of course, it is not one central
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unified team that does everything. there is a direction of travel. it helps us as investors to have a concept of where they are trying to go. up overreacting. there is a core direction with a lot of noise around it. rishaad: have you considered becoming a spokesman for them? mark: i am a spokesman for my team in asia back to europe. the representation coming from the west has its own vested interest. it is coming from hedge funds, a lot of politics. china is a popular political stance. we get a lot of noise thrown at us as investors.
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i think infrastructure is going to be a big thing for the next five years. china has created an excess of supply of everything you can think of. excesss a massive supply. for supply look consolidation, not sit there appearing at some data coming out of china on chinese demand. reform, more consolidation. always good to see you, mark. rishaad: we will take a break. abandoned and left to rot. attemptingjapan is to breathe into its ghost towns. ♪
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angie: population decline is a serious problem in japan. rishaad: a million homes being left unclaimed across the country. 20 million by 2033. --ry: we are outside tokyo's a microcosm of the japanese housing market. about one in every five homes is empty and unused as a result of japan's rapidly aging population. young people have moved on, searching for a better life in the big city. fight back, to launching an initiative to offer vacant homes and new life -- vacant homes a new life. next we have managed to arrange four rentals and one sail. we have managed to arrange four rentals and one sale. sales occurf home
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on the secondary market. that is partly because of tax regulations, the value of a wooden home depreciates to nothing after 22 years. concrete buildings lose all of their value after 47. homes are not built to last because there is almost no resale value. >> the issue of abandoned houses cannot be solved without appropriate tax reform. abe's recovery plan was to revive the housing market. since 2008, more than half a million homes have been left abandoned. >> it is only ¥10,000 a month. i do not want to disturb my parents. shery: it will take more than a
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few students to give japan secondary properties the boost they so desperately need.
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