john: oh, i'm john heilemann. phil: i'm phil mattingly. withd trump's appearance stephen colbert last night -- really smart, really great, and hillary, who has become very shrill, and i have better hair did do we agree i have better hair than she does? he has better hair than i do. on the show tonight, a poet.

phil: quarter of democratic voters support vice president joe biden, was surpassed for my --ator bernie sanders vermont senator bernie sanders in the primary field. this is the smallest lead against biden in any point this cycle. you wake up at 6:00 a.m., what are you thinking? john: first of all, i noticed the yogi berra reference in the script. on thehaving you on yogi show. we will talk about him later. i'm thinking about hillary clinton, thinking i'm more worried now. my margin over biden, not even in the race, has gotten this small. sanders, i'me particularly bummed out because i'm not even in second place and the guy who is not running is second place ahead of me. if i'm joe biden, i'm thinking people at the telling me to last

few weeks that i have to deal with my personal issues, but the politics look bigger for me to get in this race and this fall confirms that and makes that point even more strongly. phil: if i'm hillary clinton, i'm not looking at the topline numbers. i'm looking at the vulnerability. her favorability is down 10 points since iowa. she has been running, she has been under the microscope. joe biden has not. how realistic is this in the grand scheme of things to think that is a question worth raising? john: the other thing if your hillary clinton and looking for a reason to feel good, looking to salvage something out of all this trouble, you look at this and you say maybe joe biden doesn't run command as his number has gotten larger, biden decides not to run, she will claim most of the votes. those are not bernie sanders votes, if you look at all the polling we have analyzed so far. may belook at sanders getting the ceiling, that gives you something to cling to amid all the gloom.

after putting out her prescription drug plan on coming out against the keystone pipeline yesterday in iowa, hillary clinton found herself grappling with the issue that won't go away. exhibit a, power colleague -- wilberleague deall uncovered private e-mails from her server could talk her into her claim that she turned over the e-mails to the state department after a routine record request, "the washington post" reports that the thing that made officials asked for her e-mail was the discovery that she asked for a private server. a meeting with "the des moines register" editorial board yesterday, our man caught clinton unable to explain away that story, or explain it all, for that matter. observe a lot by watching good mrs.mrs. clinton clinton: you know what, you are telling me something i don't know. the state department went to

come as far as i know -- i said, hey, i will be glad to help. we will give you additional information in a few minutes. phil, these are 2 big stories, but on a political consequence, are these incremental advances in the industry are monumental? phil: i'm going monumental. i've shifted a little bit over trying to4 hours parse wording and see what the statements are. the last two days policy wise, we talkedy clinton, about the pharmaceutical drug plan she had yesterday. not only was there a significant plan with democratic support, but she fill in isa hedge fund guy and got him to back off a specific price on a specific drug. that is a big win for them. then you have any hundred 40-word media post -- 8

media post expanding her keystone headline position. and we're talking about e-mails. i don't know if it is a reflection of the political press as a whole, but it is a problem that has been consistent the past few months. john: i would not go so far as to state monumental colossal, wilber story -- were the e-mails wiped clean were deleted and they were able to get into the system -- we don't know if it will get the 30,000 she said she deleted, but the fact that they can get some of them is a dangerous development for because it raises the specter that beyond the fbi's investigation, congressional republicans will try one way or the other to drag her personal e-mail into public good there is a reason why she deleted those e-mails. we don't know what it is. but those e-mails get into the public, that is a new phase of this potential scandal and it could be very dangerous. phil: almost a certainty if no republicans -- hell republicans get a hold of it. with president

obama at the white house and spoke to thousands of people on the south lawn. excitement over your visit must be attributable holy father, not only to your role as pope, but unique qualities as a person. of anrancis: as a son immigrant family, i'm happy to be a guest in this country, built by such families. problem.hange is a be left to aonger future generation. phil: in that poll we released today, we asked about the pope's position and found that not only do people really love the pope, but the future ain't what it used to be. they agree with him on major issues on the direction the church is going to they support the direction -- the position that hope has taken on women in

church and refusal to judge gay people. but the one issue he loses on and he loses big on this issue -- people-caused global warming. john, why is that? john: the easy answer would be to say that these other issues are issues where there has been what is judicially considered church doctrine involved and people think that is the pope's realm and he is allowed to have a view on that. climate change they think is not in the church's realm. he disagrees on that, but people are saying the pope should not be sticking his nose on that issue. these are all highly charged, polarizing, ideologically freighted issues. but now in our society, as controversial as gay marriage abortion once was and still is controversial to some extent, global warming is the most polarizing and controversy of political issue, and that is why we end up seeing this rejection of the pope having an opinion on that matter. phil: what is a rising is that

the pope did not hold his fire at all. he went straight at climate change and was effusive in his praise of the president for using his executive action to try and address climate change is an issue. that in and of itself is enough to infuriate republicans and conservatives. i think people misperceived the idea that he is certainly shipping the church on a doctrinal level, but on this issue specifically, people are aware of the direction he is taking. john: it is also a totally new thing and it takes people allowed to get used to that. déjà vu all over again. government shutdown on the horizon. tomorrow the senate will grapple with a bill to keep the federal lights on. the upper chamber is likely to pass such a bill. the problem is the house, where speaker john boehner will put up a vote for the money runs out next week, we know that for sure. still, what we don't know is whether the bill will pass or not and whether the government will shut down. you live in washington, d.c., you cover these things really closely. what say you? phil: there will not be a

government shutdown. john: oh! phil: i know, it is a risky, risky proposition. a full 7.5 days before the deadline i'm willing to go out on a limb and say there will not be a shutdown. john: you believe our elected representatives are competent enough to prevent a shutdown and the republican party is able to get over the various fi ssures within the party? phil: i'm putting a lot of faith in the pope's addressed to congress tomorrow. tomorrow, by the pope. phil: the republican conference has real problems in the house and john boehner has a problem but leadership has coalesced around the fact that they simply cannot shut down the government and the clean cr is the only path forward. they will convince enough republicans, as is always the case in these situations, convince enough republicans and nancy pelosi will get democrats and they will pass a funding of time a certain perio

and have the fight at a later date. dit always happens, it will happen this time. john: i don't like ever agreeing with you under any circumstances whatsoever. i think you are probably right but only probably right. there is a higher probability of a shutdown and then a lot of people think right now because the house republican caucus is such a mess. probably.ll take that makes me feel good about myself. you have2 options, stay with us or change the channel. if you're not sure what to do come he was advised -- when you come to a fork in the road, take it. ♪

john: our guest tonight is our polling expert ann selzer. last time we had her on the show it was impossible to get the conversation going because everyone was talking too much. thanks for coming back. this bloomberg politics national poll -- phil mentioned the thing

he would worry about if he were hillary clinton, the favorability numbers. tell us what copyright. -- what caught your eye. ann: what caught my eye is the change. the speculation over what is going on with her campaign, will joe biden get in. her favorability numbers dropped 10 points. democrats -- she will say it might people are with me, and they are. biden's favorability rating is 80. 80% favorability for the vice president among democrats is extremely high, and i would venture to say as high or higher than it has ever been for joe biden. we don't have the records on this but my guess is that that is true. how fast do you think that number would drop when biden gets in the race? ann: predictions are hard, especially about the future.

it remains to be seen how he plays this game. it is all on him. he has done it twice before. advantageim a big that he has run against hillary clinton before. he knows the game he is getting into. he will have thought that through. john: he will forget that sterling 1% of iowa voters he got into thousand eight. phil: when you dig in on secretary clinton's numbers, where has she lost support? john: ann: she has lost support among women and this is the group that her score. to buoy where have they gone? really, as far as i can tell come into the not sure category. they are just backing off. it means they are still there in order to be cultivated, have not sworn allegiance to another candidate, but they are just holding her powder, i think,

right now. john: this gender thing seems surprising to me because we have heard for months now bernie doing well with men but not so well with women. now they're basically running even with women. really kind of remarkable. do you have any idea what might be driving that? has it is what the story been all along, and as an observer, the preseason is over, and we are starting to see candidates dig in and campaign for real. on the republican side, a couple have left the race. on the clinton side, she is talking policy and holding events in a way she was not doing before. game on. john: we asked whether they thought joe biden should get in the race. ann: this is one of the most fascinating findings in our poll. 47% overall said he should get in. you might think that is being democrats, he and

getting in as an alternative. it is 52% of democrats. republicans are right on the average, with 47% saying they wish joe biden could get in. my question for you, is there a different rationale between republicans and democrats, who see a different advantage for him to get in? john: i think there is. democrats want him to get in because they want to vote for him or they think he is good for the race and good for competition. a lot of republicans dismiss joe biden out of hand. the republican view of joe biden is he is a clown. maybe they are registering strategic voting in this case. what you think about that, phil? phil: i think there is something to the fact that the republicans want him to get in the race. i want to ask about the pope, the most popular guy in the world, maybe. what stood out to you when you look at those numbers? we looked at issues and what people think is a good direction for the catholic church to go, some of the issues that are more controversial

people really backed off of. i look at catholics in terms of their view of this, and they line up pretty well. on climate change, it was a minority of democrats who thought this was a good direction for the catholic church. he has not, i think, made the case on climate change as well as the church doctrine issue, and democrats aren't buying it, either. john: super interesting. we could talk you all day but we don't have all day. when we come back, we'll have a needed -- anita dun..

democraticthe nomination fight getting more and more interesting, mark and i spoke the other day with former white house medications director that need a --anita dunn. we asked about her views of hillary clinton's full or ability as a candidate. you said she would have the will to vulnerabilities. economic populists,

the other would be on foreign policy. to the accent that she has shown vulnerability in the years since we last had to hear, are the those the things that made her vulnerable or israel vulnerability elsewhere -- is he r the livability elsewhere? shea: part of it is that has been seen as a preemptive front runner for so long, which was not the reality, but because she was seen as a primitive front-runner, the entire process has been a referendum on her. she has gotten general election coverage early in the primary season. i think economic populism has turned out to be an area of vulnerability. that is the rocket fuel that is propelling bernie sanders' campaign, that and a sense of authenticity. john: when we talk in october, you said you thought it would be harder in this election for a progressive to mount a challenge against hillary clinton than it

was for bill bradley, your former client, to challenge al gore in 2000. do you think that has proven to be true? are you surprised by the amount of traction bernie sanders has been able to get against a formidable front-runner as secretary clinton? anita: well, i think i was wrong when i said that, and i think i was wrong because i underestimated how strong those currents are really running in this party right now. i don't think i'm totally wrong people a small number of in "the new yorker" theory goes that there would be a challenge to her no matter what. the reality, especially with young people, they feel such a disconnect from the political process, and i think that people like senator sanders, who so clearly are operating from a strong set of principles they have held for a very long time, and who don't sound like typical politicians, have a huge advantage. looking atrikes me the way senator sanders has conducted himself, the way that

in the sameot place, it is difficult to go after him. do you share that view? is difficultk it for people to take this personal directly against each other. mark: you talk about joe biden possibly running. let's say he got in the next couple weeks and every thing went great. let's talk november, december, january could what is his most linear path to the nomination? anita: he could get in late with little organization and that is a big thing for the biden campaign, the potential campaign, to consider. what we are entering is a period of engagement and the path for any candidate -- hillary clinton, bernie sanders, martin o'malley, jim webb, lincoln chafee, or even a vice president biden -- is how are you going to use the debate, how are you going to use the dinners, how are you going to use the joint appearances, how are you going to use personal appearances, how are you going to use shows like this one to go out and engage

people and make your case for your path? john: up in new hampshire this weekend, the chairwoman of your party, debbie wasserman schultz, was heckled by a crowd of democrats. there should be more debates, open to many democrats. the chairwoman has been adamant that there will not be more than the six currently sanctioned. do you think she should relent and sanction more debates or remove the penalties from unsanctioned debates? anita: full disclosure, i work with the dnc. but i will also say that anybody who worked for barack obama in 2008 is not going to see here and say, oh, you really need 25 debates. you actually don't need that debates, and are plenty of opportunities for candidates to go out there and to talk to voters, and one of the reasons we have small states at the beginning of the process so the candidates can do personal campaigns not through television. john: you agree that obama got better the deeper in

the debate schedule, number one, and number two, as many of your colleagues told us many times, that long stretch of debates was grueling and prepared him well for the general election debates he had with john mccain. anita: i actually would think there is little revisionist history going on with my colleagues. i don't think the primary debates really did prepare him all that well for the general election debates. until later that they became one-on-one debates, for example. john: just to be clear, you think six is enough? no one is advocating to any five, by the way. anita: but where do you draw the line, john? john: i don't know, but it seems that just to place this cap on it, six or 25, that seems like a strawman argument. 25 sounds ridiculous. why not 10? anita: maybe the party at the end of the day decides that the

process is moving along and keeps going on that they should add debates for later states. i guess i would say to you, why should 2 states get to a three debates apiece and 48 states get none? ,nce you start going down to it there may be more debates because the process that stretch up to june, as it did in 2008. there could end up being fewer debates of the process ends early and summary just sleeps. good number right now. there are plenty of other opportunities. at the end of the day candidates need to take advantage of every opportunity. john: our thanks to anita dunn. when we come back, yogi berra, take it with a grain of salt.

show was aboutr politics. the other half is about yogi berra. cited political philosopher who like to say that

if you don't go to people's funerals, they won't go to yours. funeral is not to credit, or nobody will be able to go. if those quotations made you smile, enjoy a few more courtesy of our friends in the media and politics rockets. >> there was a quotable player named yogi berra and he famously said it's déjà vu all over again. in the words of the great yogi berra. déjà vu all over again. >> déjà vu all over again. >> déjà vu all over again. >> as yogi berra would say, it is déjà vu all over again. berra would say, it is getting late early, so we are getting shorter days, still dark. >> was yogi berra present it ain't over till it's over. yogi berra once famously said it is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. by yogiropos saying berra -- 90% mental, 40%

physical. >> for hillary clinton in clumps tomorrow, it will be déjà vu all over again. phil and me and everyone here, sayonara.

alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i am alix steel. u.s. stocks have been mixed throughout the day. oil tumbling below $45 a barrel. joe: but the question is, what did you miss? the great big volkswagen scandal may be huge enough to affect the euro. alix: