guy: despite failing to win an outright majority in the catalog election, the independence leader says he will continue to push ahead with plans to separate from spain. profit warning. weakest earnings in over four years. the slowdown takes its toll. statever 160 heads of descend on new york for the un's general assembly. president obama takes center stage with syria and the refugee crisis topping the agenda.

welcome to "countdown." i'm guy johnson. anna is down in brighton. we will be with her shortly. let me tell you what's happening on the markets. u.s. futures are a little softer at the moment. over the last half hour, they have started to firm a little bit. when i was in this morning, the s&p was called down by 0.5%. as london traders start to make their voices heard, maybe we will see that continue. -- at the moment, u.s. futures are looking a little softer. in around an hour, we will find out what the european picture is. in terms of the news at the moment, market still feels very jittery. this is quarter to date. this is the japanese yen continuing to massively outperform its peers.

the market is looking for a safe haven. the japanese yen is where it is looking. big moves into the yen continuing. that is a quarter to date figure. an interview in a french paper, christine lagarde talking about maybe cutting global growth. again, this going back to the heart of the issue, this concern about what is happening. the structural story surrounding growth is beginning to wonder people in the markets. juliette saly standing by for us in hong kong. juliet bank -- : it has been a quiet day of trading asia. later in the week, the golden week. the chinese sharemarket will be closed for five sessions. it is a little weaker at the moment. that industrial companies profit story, the big story of the day.

we have seen some weakness coming through. industrial companies profit falling 8.8% in august year on year to the lowest level in four years. over in japan, we've got 1000 stocks on the topix index trading with dividends. on the nikkei, out of the 225 stocks listed, 168 are active today. that is the reason we are seeing a 1.1% drop in japan. singapore has been in focus today. 2012, level since june mainly due to a big fall from one of its biggest stocks, the main telco provider, which is down around 4% at the moment. that is weighing on the overall index. most of the other markets in the region are also lower. in australia, there have been some support coming through from the banks and the utility and infotech stocks.

onlysx 200 pretty much the major bright spot in the region. the new zealand sharemarket hasn't been moving much at all. currently up 0.2%. volume very low because we have a number of markets in asia on holiday. volumes down about 4% from where they are normally this time on a monday afternoon in asia. i want to show you some of the currencies. the yen has been a safe haven. a lot of these emerging market currencies are under pressure. the malaysian ringgit golding -- holding at 4.4055 against the u.s. dollar. the thai baht is also coming under a little pressure, down 0.1% against the greenback, which is going to be the currency in focus. guy: busy week coming up. thank you very much indeed, juliette saly updating you on what is happening in the asian

markets. let's bring it back to europe. pro-independence parties have one bank a majority in catalonia's regional election. it is an election they touted as a de facto vote on independence. the catalog president who promised to secede from spain alans have made a decision on their future. >> we have succeeded in letting people vote. we have succeeded in letting people have their say on the political future of catalonia. guy: he's speaking in english there. let's talk a little bit about what might happen next. tom mackenzie joins us from barcelona. thee does this leave independence campaign? isn't the victory the independence campaign wanted,

quite frankly. they did get a majority in congress thanks to this partnership with the anticapitalist party that is going to cause some difficulties in negotiations going ahead. they did get a majority in the popular vote. they know the popular party in madrid and the socialist party are both going to use that to push back against the independence campaign. it's difficult now as we look to the future. they don't want to work with him. they've got very little in similarity politically. the only thing they have is their preference for an independent catalonia. there's going to be some difficult negotiations going ahead in barcelona. then, of course those negotiations once the government is formed moved to madrid and possibly brussels. heard that this is not a clear mandate and the popular party of the prime

minister are going to come out and say the same thing. all focus now on december, the elections, and what's likely to be a shaken up government. use -- to lose his majority. is there going to be some wiggle room for tax renegotiations with catalonia, restructuring of a as well, restructuring tax credits, those questions are now looking ahead to december. guy: so at this point, a confusing picture coming out of the region. we wait until december, then we start to get an idea what the implications of this really are. is that the story? is it still a relationship with madrid and how that affects economics, or are people talking about a directive from this vote? tom: we in uncharted territory. catalonia, almost 20% of spain's

gdp, around 16% of its population, and economy almost the size of portugal. it is very significant. how these negotiations go forward is a key question. goldman sachs put out a report saying this is political risk and this is something to keep an eye on. if this mandate they say they are going to use now to push for greater autonomy here, if that goes through, there's loggerheads now. that's going to be difficult. what brussels is going to say, we heard from obama in the u.s., from merkel in brussels, and the eu, saying the door is not open to being a member of the eu if catalonia does become independent. the economic success of this region underpinned by the euro in many ways. for now, it looks more like december negotiations, a new

government, and will the door be open to greater autonomy for the catalan region? guy: tom, thank you very much indeed. russia's president, vladimir putin, is in new york today for the united nations general assembly. he will meet with president barack obama. the first time the two have spoken face to face in more than a year. ryan chilcote is here with me. great opportunity for these guys to get together, but the subjects they have to talk about our varied and interesting. probably syria front and center. ryan: that's what president putin wants to talk about. his whole agenda is that russia is an international player, russia has a role to play in syria. vladimir putin wrote an editorial in "the new york 2013 onn september 11, the same subject. russia cooperating with the rest

of the world in syria. that was the same editorial where he said that he had a growing trust in his personal and professional relationship with president obama, which i thought was interesting. after snowden, but before of course now we know for sure, that relationship has deteriorated. it became the whole argument about gay rights in sochi and for ukraine. make no mistake. his goal is to try to reinject russia into the international arena as a power broker in syria. he was on charlie rose, on "60 minutes" talking about how russia would like to build a platform with the rest of the world for defeating islamic state in syria. the russians have been talking to the iranians, the syrians, and the iraqis about coordinating action. the russian foreign minister met

with the u.s. secretary of state. now the french have gotten in on the action. i think a real sense that the russians are acting behind the scenes and are going to use this speech and perhaps everything else they do in new york to try -- if not become the ringmaster, or master of ceremonies of what happens in syria, then play a huge role. guy: the french move, how significant is that? unilateral, but likely to have impact on british policy and policy elsewhere. ryan: i think what we're looking at is the endgame. , the refugeesis crisis, all the countries recognized something has to be done in syria. if you want to have a say, you've got to be acting militarily. president putin has his troops on the ground. the french strike for the first time against islamic state in syria. , if weofficials saying

want to be a power player, we've got to be a hitter. we are quickly moving towards that. guy: thank you very much indeed. what else are we watching? let me give you a heads up on the data. we've got an interest rate decision from india's central bank. the r.b.i. expected to cut rates by a quarter of a point. wednesday, gdp figures out of the u.k. you're going to get some big revisions. watch out for that one. could have an interesting impact. payrolls friday. it is the first friday of the month. we will see how that one fades into the market, the big number for the month. the other thing is, we have a nasa press conference later on. i think nasa's going to make a major announcement at some point today. also, we are going to be hearing from labor's new shadow chancellor.

he's going to be speaking today. we are to hear from anna edwards. normally on the show, but she's down in brighton. has angela merkel defriended mark zuckerberg? the german chancellor's comments on racist facebook comments have gone public. we're going to get the full details on that story after the break. ♪

london, 7:16 in frankfurt. breaking news coming out of shell and its proposition for alaska. ryan chilcote is back. he is our guy. ryan: shell saying they are going to cease exploratory activity in the arctic, looking for oil between alaska and the russian far east. saying that their position thus far has been worth $3 billion.

they were committed to spend another $1.1 billion. the unpredictable regulatory environment the u.s. has in place has made it very difficult for them to work. they also talk about the high cost of working in the area. at oil prices today, working in the arctic doesn't necessarily make sense. it is perhaps a good reason to put a project off. shell has had a difficult go in the arctic. atjust get this now, looking -- the important part i think is the financial aspects of this. this is an interesting move from ben van burden, who we are going to hear from next week in london. we will get more from him on this. one of the oil majors saying they are going to cease exploratory work in the arctic, off the coast of alaska where shell has been active for several years. guy: thank you very much indeed.

let me tell you about some other stories. more evidence of the china slowdown. industrial companies profit declined 8.8% in august from a year earlier. coal mining earnings plunged while oil and gas profits tumbled more than 7%. catalonia's independence movement has won a landmark vote in spring -- in spain. for a showdown that could see the richest region breakaway. the group was hoping there was a majority of cattle lands that wanted to leave. more than 160 heads of state are gathering in new york today for the 70th united nations general assembly. coordinating a response to the threat posed by isis will be high on the agenda.

vladimir putin and u.s. president barack obama will hold rare talks later today. angela merkel has confronted facebook founder mark zuckerberg over racist content on the social media site. they were captured in exchange at the u.n. general assembly. hans nichols has more on this story. what happened here? hans: the german president describing it as a table microphone. what the table microphone picked up was merkel asking a question to zuckerberg. then you hear zuckerberg on this issue of what facebook is going to do about monitoring racist, xena phobic content. we hear zuckerberg's response pretty quickly on the tape. he said, we need to do some work. then, there's the merkel follow-up. she basically asked the same question again. zuckerberg can only say yes.

i know there's a humorous aspect whenever private conversations are picked up on public microphones. germany is taking this issue very seriously. they are trying to house, potentially find jobs for these incoming refugees. there have been some ugly and racist attacks on refugee housing. what the justice minister here did was right facebook and say they need to urgently review their policy. it gets to the difference between what tech companies think they're allowed to do and what the german state sometimes demands of them. the justice minister said they need to urgently review. he said he had a meeting here in mid-september with facebook executives. their point is, if facebook polices nude photos, why can't they police racist or xena phobic content? that is the line. they want more cooperation from big tech companies like

facebook. guy: thank you very much indeed. joining us now live from brighton, the head of the labour party conference, and my friend anna edwards. it is a bit like the catalonian story in some ways. protest parties. is labour party a protest party? what can we expect to hear from the shadow chancellor? anna: good morning to you, guy. today is set to be dominated by the conversation around the economy. john mcdonough will be speaking around noon time today, a man whose talked in the past about wanting to overthrow capitalism. over the weekend, we heard from him. he says he's not a definite denier. expect some conversation about commitment to a budget surplus. what is he going to want to do

to the bank of england? we understand he starting some kind of radical review of the institutions that manage the u.k. economy. does that mean questioning the independence of the bank of england? he wants to change the economic discourse in the u.k. he's appointed a panel of experts. he wants them to change that conversation. he wants to put anti-austerity back at the heart of things perhaps. what will we hear about the other policies that keep being mentioned? we want to get some clarity. what does he want to do on taxation? who's going to pay more tax under a labour government if we got one? quantitative easing. these are policies that have been talked a lot about. the broader question is around jeremy corbyn, the leader of the labour party, and how he can bring people together. this is a man who, from the back benches of the party, defied the party with so many times.

can he unite the party? we will talk a little bit about that and europe. we will be holding a special debate around europe. you can catch that 6:00 u.k. time. that will be live streamed on our website. guy: looking forward to that. thank you very much indeed. we are also going to be talking to the cbi later on, getting industries take on what exactly is happening within the labour party. as she says, we've got this debate later on this evening. those are the people that will be on the panel. interesting to see peter mandelson there. these are people that you could argue are maybe a little bit right of center. get a take on what's happening in the markets now. our next guest says he sees more dollar strength.

let's bring in morgan stanley's global head of fx strategy. the yen continues to strengthen. quarter to date, we're up by 1.68% against the dollar. the market is running for safety. do you continue to see that trade developing? doi think there's a lot to with the interpretation of global liquidity. we had this morning quite interesting news coverage on "the financial times" regarding saudi arabia withdrawing from outside investment to boost or support currency reserves. what we are seeing globally is that currency reserves are declining for the first time since early 2009. this decline seems to be on trend. there are several factors playing in here. one is the global imbalance has become less imbalanced, but implicitly, you generate less savings. then you have the declining

commodity price which seems to be linked to that process. that decline seems to be a smaller trend. so you have less income from there. the importance of that is, when you have declining reserves, that very often is linked to central banks' balance sheets. they are starting to shrink. secondly, commercial banks balance sheets shrinking too. you can draw some implications on the interpretation of global liquidity. global liquidity is in retreat. you cannot be that positive on risk. that is where the yen comes in. guy: what are the implications of that for central-bank inking of tightening -- central banks thinking of tightening? this is quantitative tightening, you could say. how does that feed into what yellen is doing? >> i think that's going to slow her down. that is pretty much in line with

the morgan stanley view. the fed is going to be very late in hiking. when they are starting to hike, it is going to be a process. we have the view that the u.s. dollar is very strong. this is pretty much in support of each other. simply because the increase we are currently seeing in the u.s. dollar is a safe haven related flow. american investors which have been investing in emerging markets for so long are taking this liquidity back into u.s. dollars. the u.s. dollar is no longer cheap. it is expensive. each time, when you have am expensive dollar which becomes more expensive, risk appetite isn't looking great. that is why the japanese yen is doing well. people are building expectations. boj, are they going to ease? i think in japan, it is much more about fiscal policy instead

of monetary policy. guy: plenty more still to discuss. after the break, we will be talking about sab miller. beer. ♪

6:30 here in london. slowing down the industrial profits with a decline from earlier and the most since 2011. are 67%.ng gas prices winning a landmark vote in spain regional wins in the showdown in the region with the breakaway.

they want to remain part of spain. nevertheless, the independence party movement with the absolute majority of --. not enough. the heads of state gathered today and coordinated the response by the refugee crisis and vladimir putin. it is later today. after years of speculation, it it couldupon us and come as early as today. we have more on the story. hear the final price knowoming together and we

that led weiser is really at sab. the price tag could be 70 pounds. this is up from what we have currently seen with the market back on september 16. withnd all, it comes out the capital and private equity andany backing this deal these numbers that we are looking at are at a premium and we have the banks beginning to shareholders have to get on side. the number one shareholder this it all comes in cash

it being massive with capital gains. will it be shares? with theeresting number one shareholder and we could see the biggest ever investment to finance the deal. it will be bigger and it could be $60 billion. interesting times for the market why do the others pay so much for this? africa is huge. , there willication be a cost-cutting issue and that makes purchases.

analysts give it 5%-7% with the cost cuts and the regulations. how will the regulators react to the competition or lack thereof? angles to watch and it may be breaking. drop and a sign of slowing. chief isng bureau standing by with more and leading to a downturn in profitability. what is going on? from all the meeting investments and the slump did not help. from weakfering

demand and falling on prices. not a thriving reading with the economic data and it is certainly troubling for the chinese leaders plotting the next jilted to the economy in the next couple of months. across tos of a read the economy, this is backwards-looking data. what can we read? >> you will see new pressure on the government to activate the economy and the interest rates remain very high with the united states debating whether to raise interest rates. 4% and itark rate is

will put pressure on the government to give these companies a break to the is the financing cost. ande is so much they can do we expect the interest rate cut. the growth is 6.6% and below the government level. expect quite a few easing measures. >> good to see you. the beijing bureau chief joined us with the latest numbers. let's get a little bit more the manager across bridge capital strategy and to the head of investment. let's start with china and the problems for the chinese aon more stimulus.

october andwe have i see a take change coming. there is no other way. it is all about urbanization. right to consumption a system thathem they have. you are going to see more of africanmbers and the investment is 16.5%. i see it trending. the pmi and manufacturing do not take into account the properties and the authorities.

showdowna cyclical that china wants to keep and they will take it forward and have a one or two quarter lag. this is when i see something in china. >> they have a rate decision tomorrow and 25 basis points. there is more stimulus coming through. in terms of the cycle, where are we with the emerging markets? >> we continue to stay in negative on it and the first latestis a look into the report and you see the with the half

trillion. easing in have more the markets taking place outside of china and monetary work and easing needs to be done. you look in china and you see easing monetarily. it is a reserved and it means that you are taking in the currency off of the market and you are that tight with monetary policy by separation and i think that we need to look into other policy and fiscal policy in china. that is super important and it is coming out with a good package of 2% gdp. it makes a difference. we need to see that. >> there is a balance between

fiscal and monetary and we see it across the region. how much more work needs to be done? >> we think the fmo see will do have to do it themselves. can do as much they are saying they have to. starting and i mentioned that, if you look at , youumber and consumption see some signs of it and it is by one third. ande is a lot to be done

they cannot afford to have the gdp growth. they have committed to doing that. jokingow, everybody is and they will come with new announcements. >> there is the issue of selling chinese holdthe significant reserves, as well as. again, i'm trying to get a sense of where we are and we are starting to see the reserves. again, where are we? idea about the private sector flow and you have the residual. why are we in the situation? terms, we in easy have a relative return expectation on investment and

the markets have been very high the repatriation flows back. it is a residual of the flows and they actually monetize the reserves. we have these things in the united states and you have them in the countries where the reserves are following and you are taking a currency out of the money market. >> thank you. .oining us from morgan stanley stay with us, it quick look at what is going on. the japanese governor is speaking and he says the inflation in japan is improving and they will in just -- they will adjust, if necessary. again, the yen, when we come

back, we need to talk about the big story from last week that continues this week. organizationhree of the company. we will find out how they hope to reverse the impact after the break.

>> welcome back.

apparently, we are alive. a demand for independence. reaching economists and the party wants to seats in the 35 seat region. they failed to get a majority of the popular vote. the showdown could see the rich region breakaway. in some ways, they got their way. furtherl see alaska.ion in offshore warrant further work. they are challenging the unpredictable regulatory environments. ok will stop -- ok.

mueller is pushing for a liberalization and he seeks to serve in the international scandal. ryan chilcote has what they are proposing. >> according to the individual familiar with the thinking, he was privy to a conversation that took place on friday and the bottom line is there was a push on a massive reorganization long before the scandal hit and they aid, let's put that off for little bit because you are brand-new to the job. he said, we need to push this forward. he wants to consolidate power and to the contrary, he was idea of thehe

centralization of power and taking power out of the group and giving it to the plant and the region. the idea is they need to keep plan on with that and the is in place. has a plan from within and he is beginning to propagate some of the original idea. more broadly, there are implications and that pushed the -- of diesel in japan. in a sense, the story proves the point they have already begun this new plan and we heard from the mercedes-benz boss in japan who said that he was shot thate diesel scandal and

they will go ahead with their plan. diesel is a small portion of the market and the sales in japan right now and they want to double that. andsadie's bends will go sell as many as 10% of the cars. about this and the cars give you power and fuel efficiency. we were told about it. with thecarry on conversation on the brand and the chairman of brand analysis. good morning to you. >> good morning. brands fan at which out. w fits and how the

none of the brands are on your list. you look at how this could impact the brand. >> the average consumer is buying a car and it is about driving and the design of the car. trust and big is this. line of this as a long scandals. in terms of consumers, this may blow over. and thehe regulators biggest reaction is the andvative german company having the technology to do this appropriately.

why is in the company good enough to do that? >> "made in germany" has a technological aspect to it that has always stood out. how much determination is there with the deterrent -- with the brand. that they are innovative and cutting-edge and are more honest and more transparent. , there was an inherent trust and they do what they say. we think the brand has been damaged more than volkswagen. number one for the fourth year running.

bentley andd is they are going to do great with aston martin in 2001. it is a british brand with james bond. it is doing well. a new disruptive inside the top 20, the brands with a corporate rush. we assume they are bound to try and they may not do as much as they have to to improve the regime. when you listen to what they say, it is interesting. you have industrial companies struggling and why they would have to father with the

company's. they really like regulatory stories. the big regulatory impositions and they are onerous. airbnb, not so much. impacte looking at the of automakers. it is an extensive lobby with european carmakers. you are right that they are coming in with the new economy. they are still developing and ae excited about being in part of the world in every corner of the world. this is a change in psychology and they are positive about its.

coming back to photos, it is shocking and this is not the first time. the report i was reading said that they could not have done that. -- nothis is the last the last we will hear. host: thank you for joining us from the center of brand analysis will stop right -- brand analysis. right. us, we are getting comments and he is about china and a stable growth past coming through. nonetheless, we are in a aboution where you worry

-- cross-contamination and >> my hope is that you'll see there is aming and apanese ipo coming up with lifetime for them. nominee's -- a benomics strengthening. that is where you are going to make money. a big surprise. alaska and shell and how great of an opportunity this is for them.

they say there is not enough to keep towing. a break.e to take at the top of the hour, look for news on shell. we will see you in a moment. ♪

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exploring will stop with high costs and a challenging regulatory environment. independents say they will push ahead with the plan to push away from spain. the weakest earnings in four years. good morning, you are watching

this morning and we have seen the valley terminal. that is the story and they are down by 7%. we are seeing it posted for the year for an's and we have it and the u.s. futures are negative with european futures significantly more negative. the equities look like they will be on the back foot, rather than the front foot. story that ishell huge and you have the story surrounding the reserves add towards come to get us

a negative open for europe. , let'sry out of asia find out. let's go and get the european open. >> thank you. good morning. and a thing quiet in focus is the japanese yen and , who saysor speaking this is likely to last all week. comment is that it is the best performing currency in the last months.

+++ years for global equities. we still have a couple of days left here and we have taiwan and korea. the shanghai market is down today because of the company profits year-to-year in august and that was the worst performance in four years. with this downss and looking at the ones downhave closed, it is because of the fact that we had with australia and doing well and new

looknd flats with a quick at what we have been watching outside to singapore. pressurey much under in australia and a bit of a mix. guy: we have vodafone on the this has been a long we haveed story and what the talks would have involved in the early stages with liberty global. we are talking about putting businesses together and a selectivexchange of ofets and this is a talk

consolidation that we are seeing this will notike be pursued. full of john malone and this is not going anywhere quickly. it is interesting. a fairly busy morning with the news flow and it looks openshocks -- stocks will sharply. are more things to think about with the european story and the party is winning a majority in the assembly elections that they had targeted effectively.

the president was promised a seat from spain and they have made a decision. have succeededwe in letting people vote. it is deciding the political future of catalonia. seated 48%. what does it say about the independents campaign? they came through and they wanted a majority in congress. needing over 50% with a strong mandate. .t has to do with the groupings

an anti-capitalist party and the difficult negotiations going ahead are the formation of the government and hound they bridge that. once the government is formed, saying at socialists they do not have a strong enough mandate. is a popular party and their is reluctance for much breathing ahead to theking general election in december, it is a very different looking

government and they are talking and the popular party got the absolute drubbing and the worst results in 23 years. this and heg from with the people who do not have a strong mandate. typically, it is the backing. it will be unlikely --t-december elections full elections. of spanishes up 20% gdp and is home to a few hundred

billion euro economy. some of the biggest companies are invested here and we have the this continue, despite election and the uncertainty around it. is a riske and there and they have a mandate that is weaker that is underpinned by the euro. there is no uncertainty that the independent catalonia would be part. what we will get is the formation of a new government andthere may be 1-2 parties we're talking about a tax deal with the funding of

regions and infrastructure spending that is on the table. thank you. shell pullingto and it isith offshore hard to make anything work. really big decision. saying have investors is beneathploration the surface and 6800 feet

beneath the surface. company called the and they looked for oil and gas and found not enough to make it worth it. surprise, it has become expensive and they highlighted that they are facing a challenging and unpredictable regulatory environment. the coast of russia and alaska is about half the size of the gulf of mexico. it is promising and, in this particular case, they say that they are convinced that they are strategic to the united states. >> anymore money.

making this move with the saudi's on the front page and the china slow down and going forward here. >> we are not going to see 20-30 dollars and the story is overdone. if there is anything, there will be some support. thing in thea big markets and that they are stopping central banks with oil prices that are welcome. to a certain extent, this is a move to clean up the house and

they are going to take financial charges. charges that are updated. sheet position carries value and they had additional contractual equipment. all of the oil companies have been really suffering as a result. guess the to investors reacting to this and this is a company that underperformed in this sector saying that this is a wash and they will get out. will the investors applaud that?

>> we will talk about that and in the lastrmented 10 minutes with these challenges that ride is talking about. there is the story of what is andening with u.s. shale hedges running off. we will talk about that later on in the program. ryan has more on the shell story and vodafone. the indian rate decision tomorrow and the rate cut is what we're hearing about with what we are doing and wednesday, do you get the blue book. this is the gdp data. watcht the jobs data and out for the next press conference with people speculating more than we

thought. that will be later on. the technology has merkel befriending zuckerberg. we will have the details on that story. it busy morning here on countdown. taking a break and we will see you in a moment. ♪

here are the stories you need to know about this morning. exploration.ping is a cost associated with the environment. more evidence of a chinese slow down in august a the oil and gas

profits are down. a regional parliament with a smaller one in the regional parliament. it failed to effectively a mass they are looking for. are talking about that and the spanish story that you have seen. bridge capital is still with us. how doion and

you -- >> it goes to show the national election campaign that is interesting. it is a strong vote and it is clear that is the level they have. and it wasunpopular a disaster for the popular party. it does not really have to do with the rest of the country. >> right. what are the implications? do they deal with this? wondering how this gets chest hangs over

us. >> the clear mandate will not get the chance for the they are getting the outright majority for with the coalition and getting the absolute majority with the votes. they would rather have the issue. massive independents is that they are happy to have the issue. let's talk about the labour inty and brighton -- brighton. take theus should we party at this stage? is this a protest party?

why do we care? >> i think the party has certain is where it needs to be in the next cycle. , from thedonald economy point of view, it will never go down well. they hope they can reattach the groundswell and they lost the snpn disappear -- to the over the years. view,he polling point of that is accounted for. >> where would you put it? >> further out. it is volatile, as you are saying and he has gotten together with economists to put economic policy together. you see the main thing and it

did not go. outlier that you cannot a nor. you do not is that how what he is thinking and to figure him out. i would say it is an outlier. how much political space do they have right now? there is a risk that he is granting this. >> absolutely. he has gotten they might be. the governor has free reign to theyatever it likes and

will try to keep it. he has the eu coming up. will it be complacent and subjective? >> thank you very much. let's talk about the corporate stories and the policies with vodafone and liberty. where were they and what were they talking about? understoodjune, we that there were talks to have a merger. these combinations were being debated by these juggernaut and aberty global with assets and mobile phone giants many wondering about the combination behindn malone, the man

global. of potentialas real value created with the business and the revenue put together and the market capitalization in excess. they thought they could be creative and could not work out beneficialutually tieups. with theoken down offrty global tax right up and we are not seeing a deal. see somethingt mutually beneficial. >> let's just wrap it up with you.

what thought would you leave people with? >> i am looking at the most doortant thing and trying to the expectation and it does not mean that they do not handle it. when the time comes, the credit is driven with global instability. if you see an improvement, you have the fiscal side after the election. the head of investments

across bridge capital. we are taking a break. european equities in the last half hour, we'll have the details only get back.

guy: 7:30 in london. the me to you but the story you need to know this morning. stop -- it did not warrant further work. a challenging rigging environment. they charge is to be taken as a result. vodafone talks have ended. in june, they were in the earliest stages. there are these second-largest mobile company by customers normally. -- customers globally. there are talking about swapping assets. declinedl companies

the most since 2011. oil and gas profits down. catalonia's independence movement -- the main separatists alliance gained to saints in the parliament. --gained two seats in the parliament. so we are a half hour away from the european equity open. what are we looking at in terms of story guy: -- story? the story at the moment. a fairly negative story. euro stocks down. london's a little bit further. 6/10 -- it is down paris is down .6%.

what is happening out in asia? let's find out. juliette saly is standing by in hong kong. juliette: since we last look at the shanghai composite, it has turned positive, back in the red. .1%.t is down day for the start of the week. we have the hong kong market closed. those chinese shares are not trading today. in korea andarkets taiwan. most of the markets around the region are in the red. -- which trying

weighed on the nikkei 225. australia had a better session. they saw some good buys in the banks. what weighed on sentiment was data out of china showing industrial company profits were down in august. that was the biggest drop in four months. quite a bit of weakness coming through from industrial companies. it is now back into the red and general weakness. guy: thank you. that is the story coming out of asia right now. china once again front and center. markets to politics, let's talk about what is happening down in brighton today. we have the labour party conference.

let me take you to her for a look at what we can expect. caroline: we are going to here from john mcdonald later today. his views on the economy and labor company -- labour government would do on the economy. to give used by cbi the cbi source. thoughtsour broad about the leader of the labour party. >> there are a lot of policies -- peoples qe. there are areas that we are having quite robust disagreements. we find common ground on other issues, like skills.

work with all kinds of politicians from different parties. from the discussions business secretary. labor leader to speak at our annual conference. anna: it seems that john madonna will talk later about the radical review at the institutions. the desk thatn could have implications for the bank of england pick yes talked applications of the bank of england moving. ja: that was send a strong signal to investors around the u.k.. the economy is well at the moment. aboutld be concerned anything that would put that at risk. anna: if we hear anything more

-- allow the bank of england to print money, what would your response be to that tackle would you -- to that? would you disagree to that? : in a recovery, printing more money would raise interest rates. amoco and looks as if we are not good to her -- to hear much in terms of details. katja: we have two points, acknowledging the healthy environment in the private sector. secondly, importance of getting the public financing of the control and that will mean we increaseind ways to efficiency.

like sharing back office functions. anna: it seems that he wants to change the debate around the u.k. economy. famousalled on austerity economists. do you think the debate around the direction of policy in the u.k., particularly austerity, you believe it has become too one-sided? : i believe we need -- the economy is growing and we have created a lot of jobs. by all means let's have a discussion about that. policies are sustainable. anna: thank you very much. katja hall joining us from cbi. guy: anna edwards has a busy

day. later join us for a debate on europe at the labour party conference. anna is going to be hosting that with a great lineup of guests. center. the right of the blair and of the labour party. -- the blair average of the labour party. let's get a take on what is happening. michael bell, j.p. morgan asset management joins us on set. good morning. that weght seems to be have a problem with global growth. if we work our way through this week as we figure out where we should put our chips, we got a .ot of data coming up is it your sense that investors

are taking on board the slowing story that maybe people are beginning to see? michael: from here you have seen the summer selloffs and equities. that looks quite attractive in our view. the weakness out of asia, it is preferred to emerging markets where that weakness continues to drag. it is having an effect on commodity prices. guy: there has been a lot made that consumers should benefit. where the to see that feeding through. until now, the evidence has been mixed. oil prices low should mean a boom for consumers. maybe we should see that, but it is only beginning to happen. michael: these things act with a lag. because you see a fall instantly

in oil prices, people expect -- you only start to see it come through about now. you should see the majority of over the next three to nine months. guy: are we about to see a rationalization in the oil markets? you got shell cutting back in alaska. a lot of hedges rolloff the u.s. shale producers -- show producers. michael: the supply needs to come down which is the main reason for the fall and oil price. it hasn't happened enough get. thatpect more news like where we expect a cutback in supplies for the market. over time, that should lead to a gradual increase in the oil price. you can see oil prices remain reasonably low for the next year

or so. wait until've got to the supply is really starting to come off. and he had to see a pickup in demand as well. we think it is too early to buy now and trade. too early now. guy: still more to talk about. michael bell, j.p. morgan assets -- j.p. morgan asset management. she'll putting the plug in alaska. we head into the european equity market open in 19 minutes time. we'll take a break. ♪

guy: it is 7:44 in london. let me take about the stories you need to know about. shell will stop further expiration in alaska.

-- it didn't warrant for the work. counting the regulatory environment as the reason. june it wassaid in in the early stages of discussing with the u.s. company. vodafone is the second largest mobile phone carrier globally. -- coal mining earnings down. oil and gas profits down 67%. busy corporate morning. i have the shell story. we have the vodafone story. we have become -- we have been speculating for months. we know why? what does it mean.

go, we a few want to were very much in discussions. yes, what has gone wrong? anm the start we have known array of options. with a merge their businesses? is a story that has been doing this -- doing the rounds for so long. we don't know if it is a. . stop.it is a full one of things to keep in mind is they have huge antitrust issues. combinedpitalization 130. -- 130 billion. he would oppose the merger and his market. germany, u.k., the netherlands is some of their markets where it is crucial for them.

if they were to merge there, you would probably see regulatory scrutiny. unc competitors saying we aren't happy with this. -- you would see competitors saying we are not happy with this. guy: what are the other options for vodafone? these guys often thinking and multi-directions. ruth: one of the things we have been exploring is if the european players are going to consolidate. that is something we have not seen happen yet. it is something they are considering. are they going to combine forces ? vodafone could look at doing that. they have huge businesses in asia and africa, india. india they have been looking at doing an ipo. guy: emerging markets front and center.

there are some talk we can get it soon. what is the timeline and premise? with: they have to because of -- ruth: they have to because of put up or shut up. we have been doing stories about how they are in the financing market, lining up financing. if you're going for a deal, you want to ensure that you have your financing in place. thatrobably want to ensure you are agreeable to an offer. pricing between 39 to 45 a share. getting through all of those obstacles and coming up with an offer that is appealing to have a go through. much bigger numbers then vodafone -- been vodafone-liberty. will make a that

final opera when they really show up. guy: thank you very much for the analysis. m&a that is the floating around. 11 minutes until the european market open. caroline hyde stocks we need to pay attention to. miller.: likes of -- not over the course of this week. another 20% premium is what is being reported. that could help sab miller stock move higher. also there is another stock to keep an eye on. you have been talking about vodafone. the potential talks terminator on liberty global -- the potential talks terminated on

liberty global. marketsappointed in the with the western european assets. potential negotiations that were being brought through are no longer on the -- being thought through are no longer on the agenda. shell stock called lower. that is the end of their alaska drilling. shares could fall 1% to 2%. big elation issues there -- regulation issues there. back to you. guy: european equities are called lower this morning. let's get back to michael bell. now.ike vodafone right you think they are the place to be. it has been a tough few months. you're putting money in? where he put it? michael: if you look at -- if you look at european equities, the ecb has

said they're going to print 60 billion a month. they could do more. without anymore, we think that is significant. benefitede not really . what you have seen over the worry over greece and china bringing the stock market down. now the greek issue is less of a risk in our view, because the hardline elements have been moved out of the party. when push came to shove, they say they're willing to do what is necessary to keep greece in the euro. you get further weakness out of china, and increases the likeliness that the ecb is going to increase is quantitive easing. guy: if i may u.k. investor, why am i not favoring the u.s.? dollar looks like it is strengthening. how do those factors that in?

equities,e like u.s. but we feel like there is more potential for margin growth in places like europe. of -- thehe price pace of dollar depreciation could be a factor in the u.s.. u.s. seeing strong growth. cells -- manyom more from sales. guy: what am i buying? and my being more selective? give me a drill down into what i need to be looking at. referred the domestic-based companies. it should be a significantly positive for european banks. general, companies which have much exposed to

emerging markets, we kind of their away from emerging market still. guy: we may see some of those this morning. michael bell joining us. the shell, on the agenda this morning. you've got vodafone on the agenda. you got european stocks looking softer. it is going to be a busy morning for jon ferro. he is here. what can we expect? jonathan: industrial profits down the most since 2011. that is where we begin. chinad to disentangle all and new china. we do that in the show. the big corporate news flow. so busy this morning. shell getting cold feet. they stop further expiration offshore in alaska. with oil $50ne is

a barrel, they are finding it thiscult projects like making it profitable. anafone were in talks over asset swap out. that is likely to happen anytime soon. looking to drop 3% to 4%. that is a stock to watch in the open. guy: busy week coming up. where can the rapid all appeared as john says, that china story is still front and center for european investors. what we thinku european markets are going to do at the open of trade. three -- by .3%. paris down by .8%. by .8%.down .05%.x down by

we've got some big corporate news to think about. an indian rate decision tomorrow. you got bloomberg coming out of the u.k. on wednesday. you got payrolls coming up on friday. prescott is later on to announce something big related to mars. later onconference is to announce something big related to mars. european equity markets are expected to open softer. i will hand you over to mr. ferro. if you want to follow me on twitter, you'll find me. we will see you tomorrow. ♪

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jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. the startts away from of european trading. straight your morning brief. china's industrial firm the week as earnings in four years. the economic slowdown continues. shell gets cold feet. stop further exploration offshore in alaska citing high costs and challenging regulations. terminated. vodafone said it has ended discussions with liberty global. they were in talks about an asset swap. vodafone's stopped down between 3% and 4%.

what features are doing. ftse down by 25 points. move to thee a downside at the open print your market open with caroline hyde print, bank risk aversion and the top. strong rally in europe. still ended the week lower by 1.5% per it was i we're continuing to that theme. -- it looks like we are continuing that theme. over from asia, august industrial profit plunging 8.8%. the worst, the worst contraction since 2011. center worries front and about thesis of the economy and china. risk aversion playing out. ftse 100 up by 0.6%. cac, risk aversion in terms of the yen. yen rally today and a euro lower versus the dollar. the u.s.