john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i mark halperin. and with all due respect to edward snowden, welcome to the party. let us know when you are on snapchat. ♪ mark: on the show tonight, people not named donald trump. i'm sure we will find a way to squeeze him and. -- at some point. but first, the presidential races of had more bad days than good over the course of their campaigns. today, jeb bush tries to seize the initiative with a big speech on energy policy. he wants to make it easier to export crude oil, once the keystone pipeline approved, and wants to reduce regulations to

have more say on how they taught -- tap their own energy resources. this is his third policy address this month. john, is winning the policy primary part of what is going to give jeb bush the boost he needs? john: we have heard a lot from the bush campaign about finance. i think it doesn't matter at all unless the dogs eat the dog food. policy is one way to do that. i don't think any of bush's speeches on policy have been so magnificent or so distinctive that they are going to give in edge you need, but they are a place to start. mark: they are thoughtful with lots of policy people, but they aren't that different than the other republican positions. i think eventually, if he has laid the foundation, some voters will come his way, but there is no doubt that the money will not do it. there still needs to be another ingredient, including working hard. you know, i do not want to second-guess how they did this,

but in pennsylvania, late in the day, it will get you a lot of -- it will not get you a lot of coverage. john: you think back to the campaign we started with the 1992 -- clinton's policies, which were the undergirding, were different and distinctive. they work cinematically and ideologically. they helped him stand out. bush is a little too orthodox. there isn't enough that makes is -- makes this different. mark: a little on tax policy. i do believe that in the end, this is a building block, but it is not going to change the momentum. that is what he needs right now. john: the other legacy candidate, hillary clinton, is trying to turn attention away from the waterfall of negative e-mail stories. a big part of it is bill clinton, who used his classic defense in a cnn interview. >> i received a call before i started running for president from the bush white house.

he said, "we have looked at the field and you are the only one who can win. we are going to give you so you better not run." all of a sudden, something nobody thought was an issue turned out never to be an issue, they wind up being a $70 million investigation. and all the hammering happened voters, do you trust this much? no. this is just something that is a regular feature of all our presidential campaigns. john: the other arrow is the interview she just gave with lena dunham. >> i was terrified about losing my identity and getting lost in the wake of bill's force of nature personality. that was a large part of the ambivalence and the worry that i wouldn't necessarily know who i was or what i could do if i got married to someone who was going to chart a path, that he was incredibly clear about.

my ideas were much more inchoate. john: there is so much going on, is this the way back for hillary clinton? mark: i think both these elements are potential building blocks. i think eventually if they go after bernie sanders, he may be the one who has to do it. her in that appearance, people were mocking it but i think she was relaxed and show herself or than she has in any interview. any -- thani has in she has in any other interview. those were relatively strong building blocks. john: i totally agree. we have been wondering when we would get to see bill take a bigger role. seeing him out there gives you a sign of how concerned they are. he would not be giving that interview if she was so strong.

the other thing is for her to play that card as a woman, which is very powerful and historic, important in terms of the demographics, she has to find a fresh way to do it. lena dunham is a fresh way to do it. it will be seen by a lot of people and give her fresh context. mark: the big dog is rusty by his own admission. he keeps saying he doesn't know what snapchat is. president clinton. john: let's hope not, for his sake. mark: he is going to make mistakes and i can kill him. -- that could kill him. kevin mccarthy is smart money to replace john boehner as the republican speaker of the house. still, there are some concerns in the party that he is too inexperienced, too political, and not policy oriented enough. a competitive races brewing for the majority leader and whip spot under the new speaker. boehner said today there is no

date yet. so, with a lot of uncertainty about timing and about who will win, are theill republicans headed toward a new leadership team that will serve them effectively? john: i don't know who is going to win the race. but i do know this -- john boehner was underrated in terms of his ability to manage his caucus, and i know this caucus is just as fractured. the dynamics have not changed and these guys are now new people coming into this position in a very difficult environment, made all the more difficult by the presidential campaign. i think they will have a very hard time. a very hard time. mark: as best we can tell, everyone running now is a white man -- that is no good. and there is a lack of reformer zeal. there is a lot of rhetoric about -- we want to speak to the -- for the people and address concerns, talk about government reform, the highway though.

-- will. but big, overarching, revolutionary policy ideas aren't coming. john: not just revolutionary, but you talk about the mccarthy thing -- not just not revolutionary, but not inspiring, not fresh. it was kind of procedural and the talk that makes eyes glaze over for lots of voters. mark: no paul ryan in the mix. john: house republicans are also consumed by the planned parenthood hearing, the latest event in the fallout of the controversial videos. the group's president testified for two and half hours this morning, and fought back against republicans who made the case that planned parenthood should lose federal funding. here's how she handled a particularly aggressive confrontation with jim jordan of ohio. >> the outrageous accusations leveled against planned parenthood based on heavily doctored videos are offensive and categorically untrue. >> with true statements -- >> i was reflecting that on that video, not any particular

statement, did not reflect the compassionate care that we provide -- >> you can't say i am apologizing for statements in one video and then not tell us what those statements were. >> this is an attack on 2.7 million patients, who each year choose planned parenthood as their health care provider. john: mark, as a matter of politics, who is winning the war on planned parenthood? mark: i think it is pretty much a deadlock at this point. the fight will continue to go on. that was a contentious hearing. i think both sides came away with their supporters rallied. democrats are more on defense on this, even with the media, which is usually sympathetic. this fight will continue. republicans feel energized by it. all the candidates will talk about it. john: i think you are 100% right -- i watched this hearing and thought they changed no mines.

-- no minds. if you look at the wall street journal, it is filled with a highly respected institution, it is overwhelmingly respected, the most respected institution that the poll tested. even people who don't like planned parenthood don't think we should shut down the government over it. a less republicans win over congress, they went. mark: there is also the intensity issue. this has energized people on the right in a way that makes them feel not on defense. john: at the republican attack. is against many women. this could become a big issue for presidential candidates that will place their disadvantage. -- play to their disadvantage. mark: coming up, a classic wadr twofer. ben ginsberg and anita dunn. ♪

mark: our guests tonight, ben ginsberg and anita dunn. let's get your assessment on where the presidential campaigns star, then we will hear from you quickly on the republican and democratic side. ben: very fluid on the republican side, all of them feeling their way through a different political year. still anyone's race. on the democratic side, god, i love watching it. [laughter] anita: that is kind of the way we democrats are feeling every time we see the republicans on

tv. ben and i can share that. on the democratic side, we are about to enter the next period, debates, speeches, a lot more high-level engagement. there are a couple things i'm looking for. one is the september 30 fundraising reports. we all expect hillary clinton to have done well. the real question is what does bernie sanders look like? i suspect his online fundraising is going to be very impressive, based on everything we have seen so far. two will be that first debate. obviously there is a question of whether there are five or six people -- i don't know the answer. but i think -- what are the strategies the candidates bring in? on the republican side, i think that the assumption that somehow gravity was going to bring some people down doesn't seem to be

happening. it is fascinating as poll after poll shows that the republican primary voters are so not just angry at washington but actively rejecting anybody. it was supposed to be the year of the governor, but to governors have dropped out already. they are rejecting political experience and not just washington. ben: there is a voice from the grassroots that has not been heard in this way this early. that is absolutely correct. part of the question on the republican candidates will be what anita said about the september 30 reports. what is the level that is enough for republican candidates to be taken as credible, since the media will have a lot to say? john: enough to pay the bills. i was surprised -- you have 50% of the votes, and most people in the establishment think the

-- that trump or carson will not be the nominee. seems like anyone who doesn't raise enough slims down. we talked about bush in the first segment, and his current position in the poll. what would it take, do you think, for jeb bush to move up? ben: i think a good fundraising quarter is certainly part of it. you have to look at the cash on hand. john: that alone? ben: no, there is a long list of things. doing well in the next debates, making a good breakthrough. too that it's not till the end of october. we have benefited from having more debates more often. the emergence of field organizations and the key state. realization on the way how this primary calendar is different. mark: the bush campaign keeps saying it is early still -- we have a lot of money in the bank, building a solid foundation.

at what point is it no longer early? i will appoint his jeb bush continue on the downward gentry? ben: i don't believe that happens until the voters vote. they are the ultimate consumers. again, you have to recognize what the calendar is, look at the first four states. that is a ticket punching exercise. then being able to do well march 1. that will be a tipping anita: point. you have the first four states, and then you have march 1 with the large number. what role do you think momentum plays? that is something everyone was looking at. if bernie sanders wins iowa, and he is trailing by five or six points, if he wins new hampshire, what kind of momentum does he take? i'm curious about what the republicans think about momentum? ben: i think hillary clinton is

a presumptive front-runner, we can't let that happen. the republican side feels pretty level, but is a little different. my mitt romney experience chases me on the momentum part. right, because mitt romney won first five state s and that should have been momentum, but the calendar didn't let him since the nomination wasn't until the end of april. john: but it didn't whittle the field -- but it did whittle the field down. ben: but it was a much more talented in 2016. mark: is there anything out there aside from his personal data that you would endorse, that if you are joe biden, would deter you from running? anita: i think there are significant obstacles to anybody who would get in. we were just talking about some of them. money, organization, endorsement, the infrastructure

of a presidential campaign. obviously hillary clinton's campaign, run by the best people the democratic party, really talented people -- although there are a lot of other talented people in other campaigns -- but she has a great campaign. that would be a huge obstacle. for him, it is personal. john: when we come back, the new host of "the daily show." ♪

but itdy central tried, was declined and once more, a job americans rejected is now being done by an immigrant. [laughter] john: that was trevor know it in his daily show did you last night. he did well, but we are bringing our senior political

intersection correspondent. will, how did he do? will: it is certainly a difficult assignment. he is introducing himself to america. that is a great line. he delivered a well but he was clearly nervous, and he talked very fast. it was jarring how quickly he spoke. but this is a show that has been there for a long time. it is only the first night and you can't overreact. he didn't break the furniture or knock anything over. i think he did as well as he could. mark: i never subtract points for that. "the daily show" was a huge part of the following. noah took on one of the biggest stories in politics. let's look at that. >> house speaker john boehner resigning from congress.

why this now, i just got here? [laughter] >> i learned how to pronounce your name! bah-ner! [laughter] mark: the old boehner pronounce or joke. obviously one of the questions is will he keep the jon stewart audience, would still be the place to go for late-night political junkies? is he going to keep up jon stewart's level of political satire? will: it certainly speaks -- he is new to american politics, the idea that he is doing the john boehner joke, that was old 15 years ago. he is going to be growing into the job. this is essentially the same writing staff that he brought in. this is the same staff that has run all those.

the only person they have lost as stewart. they are going to let him work his way into it. it is strange watching him deliver jon stewart-esque jokes when we know he doesn't know politics. john: will he cast himself as a political neophyte? not about strategy, but he had a couple jokes last night that rang a little clunky. some were not totally lighthearted. here is another boehner joke with a slightly different tone than the last one. >> john boehner has final say laws come in and which laws don't. use basically the bouncer at club congress. [laughter] >> which is probably the worst club ever. everyone has aids. mark: ok, so aides wordplay on his first night. i'm curious what you think that

might tell us about his style going down the line. will: certainly a groaner, no question. one of the things we think we know about noah is that he has been on twitter in the past. he has talked back against outrage culture, which hurts them a lot. i think it is telling that on the first night, this was a massive debut, for him to go for a joke like that, it shows there might be a fearlessness to him, that may push back against the audience in a way that can make the joke is. the question is whether the audience will be there with him. mark: obviously another big part of jon stewart's talent was a darn good interviewer. he was funny but also informative. noah's first guest was comedian kevin hart. let's look at this interview.

>> touring the world, making movies with the rockstar body. [laughter] >> have you seen my pants? [laughter] mark: i thought his style was pretty friendly, pretty welcoming. what you think of him as a sitdown interviewer? do you think we will see him with other big people in politics? will: certainly the rockstar body question is not going to work for bernie sanders. [laughter] will: he will have to work on that, because stewart was no not just for doing good interviews with doing very knowledgeable interviews. that is something he will have to get brushed up on. there is something inherently likable about him. he was good in a suit, a great smile, something winning about him. you hope that continues. i think that will help in the future but he has to brush up. mark: yes or no -- by the time we get november 2016, trevor noah will be anywhere near as important a voice in the political scene is jon stewart?

will: i don't think so. but after a year, jon stewart was not as important. it will take a long time to get there. john: you are a generous and good-natured man. [laughter] john: we will see how trevor noah does when he sits down with chris christie this week. will, thanks. we will be right back. ♪

mark: we are on tv twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00, but lightweight 47 online -- live at 24/7 online. john: big day in politics tomorrow, lots of candidates in iowa and new hampshire. we will bring it all tomorrow. until then, sayonara.

♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around.

>> google is firing back with two new phones. i'm cory johnson, in for emily chang, and this is bloomberg west. verizon and aol creating "go 90," but can they really compete with fine and snapchat? a car company is counting on a