manus: jobs day in the usa. will today's crucial figures give the fed the greenlight for liftoff? overreaction. interviewusive, we abbas to get his perception of the markets response. >> perception is distorted. week. glencore's wild could this be the commodity markets moment?

a warm welcome to "the pulse," live from london. jobs day. i manus cranny. it is jobs day in the usa. ambassadors will be trying to see if there is any evidence that the world's largest economy is ready for higher rates in 2015. economists have been surveyed here in bloomberg. 200-1000 jobs as the number, the consensus for the month of september. we will get those numbers at 1:30 london time, how they behave in and about this crucial set of data. mark, we started the fourth quarter with a little bit of a boost. mark: we did, and european stocks are rising. but this time 24 hours ago they were also rising. 200,000 expecting jobs for september, boosted mainly by private employment. we had 173,000 in august,

slightly before this year's monthly average. that is a slow down from last average, which was the best since 1999. --ething worth noting payroll readings have been revised by the labor department in 12 of the last 14 years. economists may, dismiss a lower than projected number, particularly if the august figure is revised. this is the monthly change going back to 2009. where you see is an increase or decrease. let's move it onto the jobless rate, because it will probably hold at 5.1%, the lowest reading since april, 2008. don't forget, 4.9% is the level

the fed considers consistent with maximum employment. the third thing we need to keep an eye on is average hourly earnings year on year. will there be signs of a much-anticipated pickup in worker pay? average hourly earnings has been 2% since the expansion began in june, 2009. in september we have these your of the year earlier, when wages didn't budge much between august and september. expect a gain of 2.4% year on year, the most since 2009. fare?ill markets that is what is important. the msci is down, stock 600 down, commodities down, the place to put your money is treasuries and european bonds. will today's jobs report make things any clearer?

manus: perfectly put. for all of our viewers, bonds are the only asset class that have delivered a positive return in 2015. if you go to hike rates, does that even the stand? mark, well done. to the societye general ceo. the thinks that the u.s. will raise rates this year, take a listen. personally, i am not that a great fan of commodity policy of the last too long stop i think they are useful booster, but in the long-term, they create distortions in asset prices. if they have too much money chasing too many assets. i think the fed will probably raise rates. in we tend to think,

december. the ecb and japanese central bank in our minds might pull through, probably in 2016, which means that money will be available, and will remain positive regarding europe and equity asset classes in 2016. we have a scenario of progressive improvement in the economy, held by the low commodity prices. i think this category of assets might be considered not that expensive in this world of ample liquidity. manus: so you think they will extend qe in 2016? >> they certainly will in september and maybe a little longer. willie u.s. jobs data gives the said fed the momentum for hiking rates? that is the question. what does it mean for the emerging markets? he is at the head of an emerging markets cross assets. welcome to the show.

markets -- just run us through the critical numbers that we all need to be focused on. your world is a punch from every side -- fed hikes, the iif report saying it has internal problems, then china. which punch is the biggest focus in your world? >> this is the way we can put it in context -- this year, bonds in the u.s. have delivered positive returns. yields have come down. emerging markets have suffered despite that, so clearly there are problems, very unlike 2013. 2014, it sold off because the euro-dollar when significantly lower. this year, china is -- manus: so we are narrowing the funnel down. bhanu: the fed will be important

-- i'm not saying they aren't. hikeidea that the fed will and assets will be released with the site, thank god, now we can rally -- i think it will be a small, tactical rally, but make no mistake, if the fed rate is ,oing up, if the cost goes up that does make the material. em is not suffering because of risk. are coming down and risks are rising. i think they have moved it to a different phase -- we are just worried about em growth. we are now moving to a phase where emerging-market balance sheets, stock variables, have began to get interested. that is why the holy grail of em, debt trade, is likely to get impacted. as it happens, able have an impact on equity, because the cost of equity goes up.

manus: we caught up less than a month ago, and you said to me, i don't believe that emerging markets' positioning is as aggressive or as negative as the media reports. has anything changed? we are seeing a point for the seeing the-- we are first outflows in almost 27 years. that is what we are on target for. as the positioning changed? bhanu: modestly. the bulk of the positioning bears repeating. it is in debt. this moves in a much more clunky fashion. we are beginning to see the first signs of cracks, but the pressure comes when you go to the market and refinance yourself as a bank and the market doesn't give you the money. that is when you go to defaults, and then you call money out.

-- thee are we going to bulk of the money was raised in 2010-2012. the pressure comes around 2016, 2017. that is the time when we can see some serious outflows, which is not to say it is all fun and games between now and then, that i would not be surprised if the nature of volatility in em is a step function. then all of a sudden, stuff begins to -- manus: that worries me even more. i take what you have just said -- default rates probably won't spike onto the back end of next year, refinancing gets more expensive, so this is a walk in the park at the moment. $540 billion out of developing markets, and $548 billion out of emerging markets. story.re legs on that

bhanu: your member what happened with moms earlier. it moved 7280 basis points. -- 70 280 basis points. it can certainly happen to emerging markets and it hasn't yet though we have seen early signs. last week, local swaps moved up and down with her the same day. we are beginning to see signs of that but it could become more widespread. issues are much poorer than people believe. manus: what are you telling people to do now, with that fairly negative scenario painted in terms of 2016? what is your top advice? bhanu: first of all, we should all expects lower total returns across the asset spectrum. within assets, hard currency debt remains relatively competitive, but that will get

compromised and we will see 1% return. equities continue to underperform. but the weakest link is the fx. i think that will overshoot. but policymakers are quite happy with currency depreciating. currencies are not as potent as they used to be. i think they will- -- manus: what are you in the pot for? bhanu: 5% unemployment rate. manus: whoa,. thank you very much. let's get you up to speed with some of the other major headlines on "the pulse." nine people are reported killed in a mass shooting at a community college in oregon. police say the gunman is dead but haven't clarified whether he was shot by armed officers were killed himself. president obama offered his condolences and lamented the

country's inability to stop repeated mass shootings. >> somehow, this has become routine. routine, myg is response here at this podium is a routine. the conversation and the numbmath, we have become to this. we have talked about this after columbine, after blacksburg, after tucson, after new town, after aurora, after charleston. it cannot be this easy for somebody who wants to inflict harm on other people to get his or her hands on a gun. manus: the leaders of russia, ukraine, germany, france meet in paris later to discuss the situation in ukraine. the meeting was called by president hollande, who last month said that following recent

cease-fires and ukraine, he hopes to see an end of sanctions against russia. the issue could be overshadowed by russia's airstrikes in syria this week. the country's first use of military force outs wide the former soviet union in decades. portuguese voters will cast a ballot this weekend in what could be the country's austerity program. while turnout is expected to be low, opinion polls show voters are willing to stick with the government. based on economic output compiled. a little bit of breaking news -- progress on the volkswagen story. the company is about to communicate with us all in terms of the recall and fix, but it looks like the swiss have taken action.

they are about to suspended new car registries for some vw models and registries. the ban would take effect on october 5. this was federal road office commented in an e-mailed statement. coming.ions are just up next, amazon cracks down on google and apple. the battle to dominate media delivery intensifies. we have the details coming next. ♪

manus: welcome back to "the pulse. we are streaming on bloomberg.com your tablet, and your phone. amazon is banning the streaming devices from apple into google. they say it is incompatible with their own service. it is the latest move in their attempt to dominate the way people consume media. caroline hyde is our tech guru. tell me this -- why the sudden tough tactic? caroline: the timing is everything -- we are in the run-up to the holiday season, and it will hit google and apple where it hurts. suddenly we are saying goodbye

to google chrome cast, goodbye to apple tv via amazon, because they feel they are not compatible with amazon fire to the, therefore they are saying goodbye. new listings lobby put on amazon and existing ones will be off the amazon system by october 29. however if you are a streaming device maker who happens to be compatible with prime video, you are fine. you can stay there. roku can stay. microsoft, xbox can stay. if you want to use your playstation, you are a ok. this is just for the juggernauts of google and apple, and it is phenomenal what they are willing to sacrifice. clearly they are moving to hurt google, because apple already has direct access. they have high-speed stores and online processing but google

will be the one hurt the most, no longer offering google chrome cast. that amazon is willing to sacrifice the sales of popular items. apple dominates a lot of the streaming tv market and they will bolster their own product. they want to bolster amazon fire tv at the expense of selling these products. they will lose customers that they really want to bolster amazon fire tv. they also want to abandon google and apple to their will. these twoto make giants make amazon prime video compatible with their own products. they have used these tactics before. remember when they were trying to focus in on hash at question ette about what the price would be?

when this whole issue was going on we suddenly had amazon blocking preorders from hachette books. you had both companies saying , butis anticompetitive amazon has a lot of space when it comes to bookselling. the google andet apple products elsewhere, so this probably won't be deemed anticompetitive but they are going for the jugular. is the number three player already in this space when it comes to streaming. there are only four key players. roku is the number one in the u.s. and amazon comes in at number three -- 86% the market is what they managed to dominate. the market has 86 million devices set i-20 19. the reason they are doing this is to focus all in. user, thatu a prime ines you order their goods

24 hours -- and makes you addicted to the amazon ecosystem. manus: breaking news for citizens of london. if you are a supporter of the tory party, they are going to put up officially -- zac goldsmith banking dynasty. for richmond an mp park. he takes the tory mayoral candidacy. . he was one of the most vocal anti-expansion heathrow voices out there, threatening to resign if they build a third runway. it has been quite a week for one stock -- glencore.

the center off at a global panic on monday which resulted in a 29% drop in its value. share prices have since spiked back, but it did have people wondering there was any kind of some -- a leader moment in the market. oflier i spoke to the ceo general society and asked him if that was the case. >> i don't think so. the systemic effect was there but i don't think you will see the same thing in the commodity sector. the question is how long will this last -- will this remain humble? who can predict the increasing might see, especially with the scenario where u.s. and europe should do well. it is a two to three-year thing and i don't think there is a systemic element there. that: there is this the of

euro has built big business -- are you concerned for me european banking perspective that the commodity rout will begin to have an impact in terms of the numbers for the banks ?nto 2016 question >> don't think so. we have to think 10 years ahead as bankers. . we remain an important sector. to keep an expertise in the sector and right financing and structuring. the major recipe for success that keeps me going forward -- at the end of the day, crisis can happen -- what predicted the situation in brazil and russia two years ago? the concentration of risk.

the management of the concentration of risk. you need to avoid and over concentration. that means that whatever happens, you will be able to carry on developing your business. manus: bloomberg's managing editor for energy and commodities will kennedy is with me now. this is about what's was monday, what was that 29% drop. was it revenge? listening to him, it was very not -- stand back, this is a contagion or a systemic issue. it has been quite a week, hasn't it >> ? will: extraordinary. but there is a wider thing here -- it is not systemic, but it does speak to real weakness

in the commodity sector and the fact that a lot of companies have borrowed on the up cycle, cheap money, and now that is hurting them and glencore is leading the pack. blasberg wanted to be bigger and bolder, no longer just that quiet gentleman commodity trader in zurich. he leveraged up and got $30 billion in debt. he took too much on. will: the interesting thing is , youyou take a miner widen out the bad times. but the real essence is that it's not working, clearly. has is a lot of mines which the world doesn't want so much of these days, and it is

.ard to trade in a bear market manus: the interesting word you use was humbled -- let's be humble in terms of our ability. urged,u have been hell someave to show st utility -- what do you think glencore has learned? will: i think i have learned the power of communication. monday, everyone was asking what's going on. tuesday, put out a statement and it starts -- a lot of effort into communicating with the press and banks and it is starting to work. manus: we leave it there. bloomberg's, managing editor for energy and commodities. coming up, the french startup company that won the investors all-star award.

we will explain what that means, next. companies, the lady who presented the award. join me on twitter. ♪

manus: welcome back. we are live from london. i'm manus cranny. let's get you up to speed with our top headlines. u.s. jobs data in just a few hours. investors will be looking for evidence of the world's largest economy being ready for higher interest rate. of 200-1000survey non-pay -- last month, policymakers held off on raising rates for the first time since 2006, citing weaker than hoped for inflation and risks to the global growth emanating from

china. the leaders of russia, ukraine, germany, and france meet in paris later to discuss the situation in ukraine. the meeting was called by president hollande following recent cease-fire progress in ukraine. he helps to cnn that sanctions against russia. the issue could be overshadowed by russia's airstrikes of syria. the countries first use of military force outside the former soviet union in decades. who filled outle credit applications with t-mobile u.s. have had their personal information stolen. t-mobile says hackers access the database via a tracking firm. payment and banking information has not been breached. it is giles day, and we have been telling you throughout the morning -- how are the markets

going to behave in these final hours? let's bring in mark barton. typically they run for the hills in these dying hours before 1:30 london time. mark: they are rising, the. out.as stood stock, a chinese share listed in hong kong. was seng china enterprises closed yesterday and is responding to measures enacted by the chinese government. minimum homehe down payment for first-time buyers being cut, as has attacks on passenger vehicle purchases. china has also reportedly studying measures to support macau. this is it over the last five months. -- falling the trend

for five consecutive months, the longest losing streak since 2000, the worst-performing global primary equity index last quarter along with china and shanghai sinking like 28%. one asset class that is falling today after a terrible run is gold. it has fallen for five quarters, the longest losing streak since 1997. why is losing its allure -- ? the prospect of high interest rate is highlighting the fact that goal doesn't pay interest or get returns like assets such as bonds and equities. it is on track for its biggest weekly drop since march as investors await for clues on the timing of the u.s. rate hike. portugal we talk about -- we talked about it back in

2011 and 2012 -- this is a lovely chunk. this is the portugal 10 year 2012 is when the economy received a bailout. this weekend the nation heads to the polls -- don't expect any drama, because voters are likely to set the social democrat party that has sold assets and has raised taxes. remember, the bond yield and portugal is 17.5% in may when it hit a record low of 1.56%. how things changed in the intervening three months. we were there. manus: we were there, and i learned more than i ever wanted to. mark, you are the only man i can get passion and portugal. let's switch it up.

night'snner at last investor all-star awards, which recognizes investors and entrepreneurs. the french startup makes low-cost wireless networks to connect devices, and it raise $115 million. we can't speak to the ceo. we have the cofounder in the house who organized the event. and our very own caroline hyde, who was there to present the award. let's take the attention to the the event -- welcome to you all, and well done. kelly what it is. the internet of things is what caroline said. you want to redefine -- you want to be the company that connects the internet of things. what is that mean? who are you? ludwig: for me, the next step for the internet is to connect

the real world to the digital world. everything will be connected to the internet for many reasons. be the way you can improve. today what we have done is rolled out a network. we have already covered 11 countries, but we are starting being able to pick up this very light energy and push it into the cloud, being able to detect every small thing. to a record,t pets everything you have around you. -- this big challenge

is something which is changing the internet. caroline: and you are building the network. i watched your pitch yesterday in front of 150 investors. you were then named after the voting as the all-star company. what does that mean? what is it mean to get the accolade from european investors that you will be the pinup, and hopefully the next unicorn? ludovic: we are working on that next step to become a unicorn is recognition of the negotiation of investors. we are expecting a huge space -- for me it was a big surprise, because we have very famous companion. , very excitingny

news. manus: you said -- you are french, very european -- you organize the event. you are also an investor. where are we in terms of the ability for companies like this to raise capital? give me a sense of what is going on in the capital raising markets. the liquidity in the proclivity for risk. was big theme of last night a massive shift in europe ambition levels. what is driving that is the access to capital. for the first time, entrepreneurs have access to capitals in the u.s. -- it used to be that 10 million, 20 million would be a good size but ,ow when we look at most of it they are pushing up toward $50 million, $100 million.

the next level is some of the public equities. down to trycoming and get into some of these fast growth companies. evaluations grow so dramatically. which the other companies has gone from zero to $2 billion in three years, the growth there is still at 400% per year. caroline: one of the most recent unicorns we saw, which won this award last year, and clearly it was the right one to bet on, but it was the u.s. investor. is that investor being proactive and looking at europe as a hotbed of talent? manish: i think it is probably the one mission we set ourselves, to make sure that we don't have to go to the u.s. for that level of funding. i think that will change over the next few years. at the moment, you are dependent on that u.s. capitol, but i

think success breeds success. investors are starting to make quite spectacular returns, and that is what they need to raise the bigger funds. manus: you just raise $115 million. what is the next up for you? you have been in existence for four years. you got the infrastructure out there, you are connecting the world. what is the next big growth spurt for you? ludovic: the next big step is the u.s. francisco,ing in san we have the plan before the end of next year. we are on our way to raise more money to speed up, because it is a chicken and egg.

maybe the next step will be -- [indiscernible] caroline: no selling out. manish: that is the key. isn you look at what sigfox looking to do, people look at this and say -- it is not just trying to disrupt one sector, but everything. it will control the network, and that is not a $10 billion company. you are looking at $100 billion easy. we wouldn't see this sort of ambition -- it would be a pipe dream five years ago. manus: a great mental to be given. congratulations. come back and talk to us again when you head out on all those u.s. cities. thank you very much.

and of course, our very own resident tech experts, caroline hyde. next, european leaders meet in paris to discuss the ukraine situation, but will russian airstrikes in syria overshadow the talks? we are live in paris after the break. ♪

jonathan: --

manus: welcome back. we are live from london. fuelingas been extremism by launching attacks against the syrian opposition. in a joint statement, the u.s., the u.k., germany, france, saudi called for an end to airstrikes. it is set to dominate talks today in paris where the president is expected to discuss the situation in ukraine. caroline connan and joins us now. ukraine may not necessarily be the focus of this european leaders meeting, will it? we are seeing this in media of action in syria -- that is going to dominate the discussion, isn't it? caroline: absolutely, manus. this has been planned for weeks, but of course the focus has very much changed since russia's

started airstrikes on syria on wednesday. vladimir putin will definitely try to find some european syria, in his actions in but the concern from the french president in german chancellor will be to really understand putin's real motives, whether they are trustworthy. of course the concern is that russian airstrikes are not only targeting the islamic state in other opposition groups such as the charlotte thought -- opposition groups to bashar al-assad. vladimir putin will arrive in paris in one hour. he will first meet separately with president hollande, then another, separate meeting with angela merkel to discuss all these questions. there is no separate meeting

,lanned with petro poroshenko which assures you that the focus has very much changed to syria and will be the main topic today. --us: the question is this the minsk agreement -- is it respected on ukraine? the cease-fire has been mainly holding since september 1. there was some violence over the summer which led to 10 dead in the eastern part of ukraine, and in a separate meeting in berlin with poroshenko, amerco and hollande -- merkel and hollande -- the cease-fire has been holding sensitive or one -- since september 1. that was an agreement withdrawing the artillery was

seen as a positive sign by the european union, even leading pro-russian rebels to say that the war in ukraine was over. of course, this is what president putin wants to do with european today, to show that the situation in ukraine has to be moved away from and talk about other subjects, with other political influence in russia. connan, wrapping up what we can expect from paris today. just before i give you the top headlines, we have a piece of breaking news. russian planes to destroy islamic state training camps in syria, according to ria.

putin'she immediacy of actions on wednesday, when russian troops took to a bombing campaign across syria, and the russian version of an execution of 100 isis people, but the debate is that the risks for the other allies are there. they destroy and islamic state training camp in europe. nine people are now reported as having been killed in a mass shooting at a community college in oregon. police say the gunman's debt but haven't clarified whether he was shot by officers are killed himself. president obama offered his condolences and lamented the country's inability to stop repeated mass shootings. emerging markets are set to see a net outflow capital this year for the first time in 27 years.

they pulled funds amidst concerns of the slowdown in china, higher rates in the united states, and riskier assets. according to data from the institute of fashion and -- costding to data, it will $540 billion this year. suspendand is to spe licenses on volkswagen cars. thatstatement, they said the band will come into force on monday. portuguese voters will cast their ballots this weekend in what could be a test of the country's austerity program. while turnout is expected to be low, polls show voters are willing to stick with the government that imposes cuts and tax increases in a country that was even poorer then greece until last year. based on economic output.

what is coming up next on "the pulse?" a big fan of rising girl bands in china. no rest for "the pulse." ♪

manus: welcome back. on bloomberg

television, radio, and streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg.com. if you are interested in sound investments, check out snh48, rapidly rising -- an all girl singing group from china. they are attracting support for music fans and venture capitalists -- what a combination! ♪ >> they are young, they are ere arened, and this 119 of them. they are modeled after a popular japanese girl band. they live together in dorms and perform seven shows a week in smaller groups. they're starting pay is only around $600 per month, and by the last round of auditions, 126,000 young women applied for just 48 places. >> my parents were worried when

i first joined the group, but now they have seen how far i have come. they are very proud of me. >> according to the founder, company behind it -- the company behind it is valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. >> it has been well received by the public, so there is a lot of interest from investors. lots of entrepreneurs have shared a similar vision and told us they are interested. >> the group already has commercial endorsements, including pepsi and sony. they are set to generate $47 million from traditional sources like recording in ticket sales, but also from digital gifts. >> i have been following since they started. they may not be at the international level yet that they have the potential to get there. >> i like the band because they

are young and lively. i have seen it several times this year. >> they plan to start similar groups in at least 10 cities over the next three years. a sound investment. manus: never let it be said that there isn't life after spice girls. how do you transition from spice girls to chinese girl bands? newsmakers, news breakers, investment breakers. glencore -- monday had a 30% wipeout, than a recovery. the communication -- we are liquid, we have credit lines. you are down 30% on money, rally back all through the week. this is a company which has learned a valuable lesson. the ceo on communication. volkswagen drops again.

world had tol the deal with their diesel cars next week. that is it for this week. jon ferro and tom keene up next. ♪

jon: jobs day in the usa. greenhe figures give the light? overreaction. and bloomberg interview assessment of the market response to the china slowdown. >> i think there is another reaction in china. perception is different than reality. jon: glencore's wild week. ♪ jon: welcome to "the pulse."

we are in bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm jon ferro with manus cranny. tom keene is in new york. i thought the comments were appropriate about the difference in the number of jobs formed in america and the idea of seeing wage inflation. there is a careful talent about which one is more important. we will talk to alan krueger of princeton university on the american job economy. that throughout the show. investors here will be trying to see if there is evidence that the world's largest economy is ready for higher interest rates. we will get those figures in three hours and 30 minutes. mark: slightly below the average of 212 average, a slowdown from last year's average of 260,000,

the best year since 1990 nine. watch out for two reasons. august in september payroll readings have been revised by the labor department in 12 of the last 14 years. for that reason, economists could reject a lower than projected reasoning, particularly if hiring in august is revised up. a pickup in work and pay. average hourly earnings have been stuck at 2% since the expansion began in june of 2009. in september we had easier comparisons with the earlier year when wages did not move between august and september. expected annual figure of 2.4%, the most since august of 2009. jon: there were so much noise the lessahead of federal reserve meeting. i think it is different this time around. mark: the probability of a rate

hike this month is 18%. last month it was 44%. the day before the fed is nothing that did nothing -- did nothing. that was on september 17. this is the country world index over the last month. i circled september 17, when the fed did nothing. global stocks have dropped by 3.7%. the stoxx 600 in europe is down 3%. emerging markets are down 3%. .he dollar is up 1.6% the place to be invested is government bonds in the eurozone and the united states. jon: it is interesting how the investors knew what was happening with the market and what the federal reserve should or should not do. early on manus cranny spoke to -- who thinks the federal

reserve hike will come this year. ofi am not a great fan economic policies that last too long. i think they are useful booster, but in the long run they create distortions in prices. chasing too much money too less assets. i think the fed in our view will raise rates. we tend to think so, in december. the ecb and japanese central bank may pull through a policy money would be available. i remain positive regarding europe and equity asset class in 2016. we have a scenario of progress in the eurozone. the commodity price is not that bad. i think it is a category of assets that might be considered

not that expensive in this world of ample liquidity. manus: you think they will extend in 2016? mr. oudea: in december or maybe a little longer. jon: manus cranny joins us now. keene is standing by in boston. manus cranny, you get a sense with that interview that he does not just think they will be hiking this year, the message is to just get on with it. for highers let's go rates. i think what is interesting is the whole conversation expanded from more ecb qb, more from the bank of japan, get on with hiking in the united states. we are not in a systemic moment in terms of what happened with glencore. they more or less intimated was more or less stand firm with your strategy. you cannot get blown off course

in these moments of market madness. payrollnging the numbers front and center in the conversation. yet i view the payroll numbers as a stress test of september's stress environment? can they withstand that? if so, the green light for the fed? >> if you look at the u.s. economy in terms of the data, earnings, and everything else, we are near to where the rates should be raised. the only thing that is holding that the rest of the world is not prepared for the interest rate rises, especially the emerging economy. in china the news continues to be negative, rather than stabilizing. that means that the shock of the dollar rate going up -- the dollar will continue to strengthen, increase in the

agony for the commodity cycle. will continue to hold the fed back for now. we should be prepared to see a rate of rise by the end of the year because the numbers the fed is monitoring, the employment rate at 5.1%, is not far from the long-term 4.9%. that is an indicator they need to at least start the normalization process sooner rather than later. when you look at investment, it is october 2 as we go into the jobs report. have you frozen your investments for the year? year end -- is your 12/31 year-and investment this morning? mr. shah: adding risk, holding back -- we will hold back a

little right now. the level of uncertainty is not only from the rate cycle in the u.s., that the data from the rest of the world indicates the you increasing right now read if you look at the data that came out on inflation in europe it has gone negative. the growth rate out of japan is 0% and going below for the shorter-term. that means there needs to be action from the bank of japan and ecb, which is more on the accommodative side. that is while you begin the tightening on the u.s. side. this, we should expect the volatility in the financial markets to remain at heightened levels. we are talking about moves in whatow 200 points beyond is normal, compared to 2-years of 100 points. a higher volatility, and i cannot say how that will abate

by the end of the year. when the u.s. rate rises, we can see the market can get more visibility going forward. it would have some stability for the rate cycle. manus cranny, i was going to say that my basic experience is when you have that much volatility, the better as you will lose money rather than make money. you get really defensive. manus: i think johnny showed a fantastic chart this morning showing the classes of 2015. you have lost money everywhere. in emerging markets you have taken it even more. -- upke money up until until today, and tell us what you think, the bond market. there is the irony. the one market you would've thought -- you lose money. nevermind the communication

from the federal reserve or the communication that we may or may not get from the september jobs report, the rates are going nowhere any time soon. the growth in inflation won't be there for them to make rate hikes they want to make. mr. shah: if you look at what and whattations are the market is pricing in, they are saying there's no way the fed can be as aggressive in the next couple of quarters. saying the rate rise will be incredibly slow. what we have seen in the recent flight -- an a nini mini flight to safety. that is the phase we are going through. getting the flight out of the equity market and the suspicion of the emerging markets. i think this heightened volatility and current flight to safety. we have not seen the worst. jon: more to come.

from london & capital will stay with us. looks like he could be set for a rebound despite opec and the slowdown in china import as well as u.s. stockpiles. it is holding steady at $45 a barrel give or take a few cents. it hassays that means hit the bottom, and will soon turn higher. new registrations of some vw has taken the swift federal road office. between 2009 and 2014, those cars are affected. the band will come on monday. ukraine,f russia, germany, and france will meet to discuss ukraine. the meeting was called by

president hollande. he hopes to see an end to sanctions against russia. the issue could be overshadowed by russia's airstrikes in syria. their first use of military force outside the former soviet union in decades. low,ut is expected to be but polls show that voters in portugal are willing to stick with the government. -- back to you. jon: coming up this morning, who under pressure as russia is accused of fueling extremism. more on that after the break. ♪

jon: good morning. welcome back to "the pulse." we are live from the bloomberg headquarters in london. russia says airstrikes have destroyed an islamic's -- and islamic state training camp in syria. the military action is set to dominate talks in paris were president putin will discuss the situation in ukraine. they are not expected to be talking about the situation in

ukraine. i want to know what they will talk about, front and center, that is surely syria. ofsyria will be on the top the agenda, not ukraine. in the past two minutes, we learned from a news agency that russian airplanes may have destroyed and islamic state training camp in syria. we will try to find out more about this attack in the next few minutes. that will be at the center of discussions today. the french president, francois hollande, and the german chancellor, angela merkel, try to find out from vladimir putin his motivation for the airstrikes in syria -- if they are trustworthy and if the islamic state is his only goal, or if he is also targeting other opposition groups against russia

who has been a long-term ally of vladimir putin. fromy find more support the french president than the german chancellor. president hollande said on monday at the united nations general assembly that a coalition could be possible and necessary, however, it has to have a very clear basis. that means no involvement of boettcher al-assad's -- 'settcher al-assad -- al-assad regime. manus: does ukraine fall to the back burner entirely? they want tocourse talk about the ukrainian situation. that is why the meeting was called. vladimir putin wants to out of his

international isolation that he has been under cents the ukrainian crisis. the cease-fire in the eastern has been mainly holding since september 1. on tuesday there was an agreement between kiev and the they arean rebels that withdrawing artillery and tanks from the eastern parts of ukraine. however, there is one point they will discuss today -- local elections that the pro-russian separatists want to hold later this month, because of the concern of european leaders. the concern is that these local elections could jeopardize the peace process in ukraine. jon: one of the interesting things that dovetails into what is happening in paris is russia puts a figure on the cost of

sanctions. what is your read and what is the number? caroline: we have to because she was these figures. they come from the russia's new jason sees -- the russian news agency. $20 billionbetween and 25 billion dollars. they were the cuts for the european union could be much higher, up to $100 billion. that is where vladimir putin will try to weigh in to have a softening of the russian sanctions. a huge slump for the russian economy. the russian economy shrunk 4.6% in the second quarter, the worst since 2009. jon: thank you. quite a week for geopolitics. quite a week for glencore. the company was south of the

epicenter of global panic, resulting in 29% of its value being erased and one day. the share price has bounced back , but the saga had people wondering if this was a layman -esque moment. so, for havingnk lived through the crisis. i don't think at all you will see the same thing in the commodity sector. i think that it is maybe longer term. predict the decrease or increase that we may see. the europe and the u.s. should do well. more about the year thing. that theree's a view are commodity businesses.

are you concerned from european banking respect to that the commodity route may begin to impact the banks in europe in 2016? so. don't think as bankers we have to see 10 years ahead. we have to build businesses to add added value. the energy sector and the commodity sector, it is important, and we remain an important sector. to haveit is important an expertise in the sector, and the right financing. major recipe for success going forward, in this volatile world where at the end of the day crisis can happen -- britain -- who would have predicted this ? you need to have a balanced

portfolio of businesses. you need to avoid an over concentration. that means that whatever happened, you would not suffer so much and be able to carry on developing your business. jon: it is the story dominating the corporate news sector. will kennedy is here to talk glencore with us, along with ashok shah. i love the market gilbert piece on bloomberg news. -esque moment?an we do not know who cleans up the mess if there is one? : we are long way from that. if things continue to develop in the commodity market, things could remain ugly for glencore. i think the global economy could

absorb this. it would be painful for some tanks, but i do not know that this cascades. tom: when i look at glencore and disclosure, you know it is ugly. what a look at the chart and the balance sheet, i wonder where the mystery is. thee know what is on balance sheet of glencore? is there clarity there, or is there mysteries? is there shadow banking issues they are like lehman? i think they have done a lot of work into days. the shares bounced back because they communicated with bankers and the wider market saying there is no history. there is a lot of liquidity. some of the balance sheets needs explaining because of commodities like copper and gold. i think they have done a good job of communicating. there is no hidden nasties inside. jon: what we need to do is bring

up a chart of copper. if you bring up a chart of glencore stock, they are the same. if i want to know where glencore goes, i just need to know where copper goes. essentially, yes. it is largely a commodity hasing house, but it interests in mining, including copper. really is the bigger minor companies have a very low unit margin and are continuing to increase access for. -- increased excess production. price is going down, meaning business volumes are going down. likeash that people glencore can generate goes down. the issue is that you are very highly indebted. that means if the cash flows are under attack, it is a matter of

time before the downgrade cycle is seen. i think one of the great misconceptions here is the hp at 40% is working margins, where glencore is working at five cents on the dollar. are there other glencores out there that we need to learn about? i think the real lesson is that this company has always pitched something unique. miner and the traitor. the miner has provided commodities like coal and copper. in a bear market you might be the best trader in the world, but trading and a bear market is difficult for anyone. bhp.tom keene brings up they are behaving like opec.

there are flushing out competitors, boosting volume, and still functioning. never mind is there another glencore, is there a victim of the iron ore market? a couple ofare minors in sierra leone that have gone bust. in sierra leone that have gone bust. will kennedy, the bloomberg managing editor for energy and commoditized. ashok shah and tom keene in boston. commodities. and we ask where markets have slowdown ind to the the world's second-largest economy. ♪

♪ jon: good morning. welcome back to "the pulse." european the headquarters in london. i am jonathan ferro, with manus cranny, tom keene is in boston. here are the top headlines. today.it is jobs investors will be looking for evidence that the world's largest economy is ready for higher interest rates. the bloomberg survey berdych said increase in the payroll number.

last month, policy makers they held off raising rates for the first time since 2006 citing inflation and risks in the global economy and of an aiding -- global a -- global economy emanating from china. personal information stolen. t-mobile says hackers gained access to the database. addresses, and social security numbers were taken. experience says that payment and banking information has not been breached. amazon will ban the sale of media streaming devices from apple and google by the end of the month. they say the products are not ownatible with its streaming service, prime video. less than 20% of amazon customers are prime members. minutes into the trading

session in europe, let's get the session with mark barton. mark: the u.s. jobs report is jobs. to to gain the jobless rate should come down to 5.1 percent, matching the august reading. will there be any signs of a pickup in work or pain. august and september payroll readings have been revised by lastabor department in the 12 of 14 years according to stone and mccarthy research. that means economist could reject a lower that expected reading, especially of august is revised higher. rising across the board, .t could change after 1:30 an asset i've been looking at is gold, on track for its biggest decline since march. that is ahead of the all

important jobs report. gold has been losing its luster ahead of the prospect of higher u.s. interest rates. it does not pay interest or give returns like bonds or stocks. fivehas fallen for consecutive quarters. it is on track for its third consecutive annual decline, that has not happened since 2000. i was standing here then. the euro is down against the /4 of one percent. it has fallen for three consecutive weeks. how have assets they aired since the fed did nothing to interest rates last month? the world index that gauges developed and developing world indices, stock indices, is down by three point 7%. the stoxx 600 is down by 3%. mlg market stocks have fallen by 3%. to make money, you needed to put

your money in the dollar. the dollar is gauged against 10 up.r currencies is if you put your money in treasury or european government bonds he would have seen a small return. we are counting it down. we, three hours from the payrolls figure? the uncertainty that has led to the loss in the asset class. he at the center is china. let's get more with our exclusive interview. manus cranny asked him if the market has reacted irrationally to the poor economic data coming from china. an overreaction to something that is not going to be a surprise. having traveled to china often, we could have seen at the beginning of the year the signs of a slowdown. people thinking that china could

not turn into a type of cal. changeknow the need to to a more consumer german model. china can address that, but it might take some time. maybe in the next three years. have had, what some have referred to, a glencore moment. a blowup in the equity market that had global impact on our view of commodities. -esquee had a lehman moment in the commodity market? : i do not think you will see the same thing in the commodity sector. the question is how long will it last? the decreasedt over the increase we might see, especially in the scenario we the in mind that europe and

u.s. should do well in 2016. europethere is a view in at the moment that the financial is asian of banks like yours have taken commodity business. are you concerned from the european taking perspective that the commodity right will impact the numbers for the banks in europe in 2016? frederic oudea: i don't think so. we have to see 10 years ahead as businesses toe add value. the commodity sector is very important. anremain in 10 years important sector. second, it is important to keep an expertise in this sector. for the right financing and structuring. recipe for success going forward, in this volatile

world where the end of the day crisis can happen -- who would have predicted the situation in years ago?russia two the concentration of risk. the management of the concentration of risk. portfolio oflanced businesses and avoid over concentration. still with us. tom keene in boston. there's a big difference between the investor impression to china, get in and get out, and the multi-decade approach of what is happening. looking at the business approach they have to take a multi-decade approach. when you listen to the ceos in this world they are more positive about china van and in esther would be with -- about china than an investor would be with a shorter time horizon. , the weekk at china

that we have had, and i will tell you the consensus opinion with a longer time horizon is that things are not as bad as it looks. there are challenges, but the resiliency of that dominant economy will overcome all. there is an optimism. as tom says, on a longer time horizon, things are not that bad. in the short term, the keyword is uncertainty. what is the take away of london and capital? mr. shah: would we have seen on the mac show venturing -- what we have seen on the manufacturing side is that they are under pressure. if you look at the production it is barely growing. on the manufacturing side, it is under serious pressure. the services side is reasonably ok. consumer retail sales are still running. a large part of the drop that we

had in the last couple of quarters came from the services and the financial side, and that had to do with the banking sector and the stock market. some of that will be unwound in the next couple of quarters. the growth rate, at best, will be 5% -- not too bad. growth engine of china is changing. a slow pivot away from the manufacturing engines to services. atking beneath the lid electricity and freight, if i want to now judge gdp, do a have to change the proxies i look through? mr. shah: many to bring in the conjunction side of the story. we need to look more intensely at the retail sales to get a better feel of the economy as a

whole if it is doing ok or not. buy if you wanted to chinese equities in june, it was like trying to catch a falling knife. mr. shah: i think that there is stabilization. the inside still has ambition to sell holdings. exposure, we still have a ban on ipos. the restrictions remain in place to enable the market to find stability. it will be a long time before it finds its true level. other than for short-term trading purposes, you are probably advised to just look the underway. jon: thank you very much. tech wars. amazon cracking down on google and apple, as the battle to dominate mobile delivery intensifies. more after the break. ♪

jon: good morning. media is banning streaming devices from apple and google that are not compatible with its services. the latest move as the tech giants attempt to dominate how people consume media. this news, in the last 24 hours, that amazon can then products on its website -- if you ban apple, i will just go to the apple store. does this change the game for

you? mr. shah: not really. when you look at who is investing, this is a very extensive stock. of verye generation high growth for a few years to come. unless they can continue to products, ideas, and generations of products, you will find highly cyclical stocks, even though they are right now.gh a spot caution is called for when you look at this from a long-term investment point of view. in singlebe treated digits rather than the 20 plus trade right now. jon: caroline, the first question i would ask is if this is a sign of weakness from amazon and not a sign of strength. take is that it is a sacrifice this company is willing to take in order to build itself among its

competitors. it is willing to play hardball. it is against google and apple, 2 companies that own and extensive part of the streaming ecosystem. so far we understand they will be taking devices they feel amazon tv is not compatible with. amazon fire tv is not running on google chromecast or apple tv. or now, you can not get -- if you're trying to put a new product on amazon, you are not allowed. if you are compatible, if you are allowing amazon content to viewed relatively easily, your sony playstation, xbox, these devices are still able to be blocked from amazon. it is only google and apple. the tactic is to hurt. willcertain extent google

suffer the most. they did not have an outlet. apple has its own route to consumers. they have high-speed stores and retail. google will suffer the most, but amazon is hurting itself. the sacrifice in sales they are willing to make in very popular products. apple tv sells well. google is the number two player when it comes to streaming. they will lose that to best buy and other competitors. promoting their own company, their own amazon fire tv products. why do we get prime tv? what is amazon offer it? they want us to become a prime added. -- prime addict. tough tacticsese before. remember the argument with hatchet books?

they are a big player and many sellers are saying you are being anti-competitive. viewed think it will be as anti-competitive, because you can buy these products elsewhere, but they have used these heavy-handed tactics before. amazon is the third biggest streaming product in the u.s. 86 million devices are expected by 2019. much.hank you very a fascinating story in the corporate news flow. here are other top headlines. 9 people are reported to have been killed in a mass shooting at a community college in oregon. the gunman is dead. they have not clarified if he was shot by armed officers or killed himself. president obama offered condolences in his country's inability to stop repeated mass shootings.

obama: this has become routine. the reporting is routine. my response here at this podium ends up being routine. the conversation in the aftermath -- we have become numb to it. we talked about this after columbine, plattsburgh, tucson, newtown, aurora, charleston. lacks bird, tucson, newtown, aurora, charleston. this easy for someone who once to employ time on other people to get their hands on a gun. manus: markets are set to see capital for the first time in 27 years. funds were pulled in concern for slow down for china and higher u.s. rates would make assets riskier.

foreign outflows were $540 billion this year. portuguese voters will cast ballots in what could be a test of the austerity program. turnout will be low, but opinion polls shows voters are willing to stick with the government that is imposed taxes and increases in a country that was more poor than greece until last year based on economic output compiled. another weekend of another election. we will see what monday morning brings. news, the ecb, mario draghi says a growth is returning to europe. as he accepted a global citizen award in new york, he made it clear he believes further integration in the eu is the way forward. he was introduced by christine lagarde. lagarde: he dresses like a brick. -- like a brit.

he does not drive fast cars. yet, he is the quintessential italian. ciao, mario. italian] it is my great pleasure to introduce a long-standing friend , mario draghi. if i were to count in eurogroup meeting times, i think we would have known each other for decades. draghi: the progress stabilizing the strength in euro areas is real. growth is returning. we will not rest until our monetary union is complete. many argue our societies are not homogeneous enough to operate as a union.

others would argue that further integration is the only extract all ofto the power and economies of scale that our union brings. you'd be surprised that i firmly in this second camp. who is a friend of mario draghi, not just christy legrand, has seen in the parade field. day in the u.s. we will have more with tom keene after the break. ♪

jon: good morning. welcome back to "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg television, bloomberg.com, and bloomberg radio. i'm pleased to say that tom keene is with us in boston. i will start with the red sox. what happened. the only good news, as i said in boston, in support of our radio effort, it was i knew on april 14,t win it was not a surprise. it was good to see the new york yankees clinch the wild-card spot. you fight to be in the playoffs when you are a lower team. that is what the yankees did. they will go on to october

baseball. jon: the jobs numbers, the payroll reports, what are you looking for in the payroll report when it comes out in 2.5 hours? to do is flyneed into boston, massachusetts to see the american labor economy. this is a city like any other city in the united kingdom, or around the world, that has gone through the ebb and flow. there is a boom in technology, biotechnology, and educative service sectors. they are creating jobs. there is another a economy that is struggling to create a jobs. it is the picture of 2 of americas that we see month after month. the complexity of geopolitics. a meeting in paris was meant to be about ukraine, it will most likely be about syria. what you looking for to come out

of that meeting in paris? tom: posturing. camp that kissinger it is always important to talk, and diplomacy to get together. there is no substitute. in that way it is a good thing. i do not look for much today. i will be doing a lot of reading on that over the weekend. up afterkeene, coming the break with "surveillance" worldwide. the third hour of trading in europe. we trade higher ahead of payroll. the estimate is 201 thousand jobs added to the u.s. economy in the month of september. we are back with more after this short break. ♪

>> this is bloomberg "surveillance" tom: a report on the american labor economy. there are two americas. jobis booming with a

shortage. another, millions underemployed. krueger ang, alan princeton. it is a healing time for markets. it has been a good week. gold loop south. -- moves south. mr. putin is in paris. at this moment he will be near holpalace with talks with lande and merkel. on this jobs day, we welcome you to new york. ready for jobset day. looking at everything going on right now. i'm surprised how quiet the markets are. jon: equity markets are reacting. but i am with you. it has been a couple of quiet days. but what i'm looking for is the federal reserve read across. the question for us over the next hour. whether the federal reserve's head agreement from the labor markets to a