tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 2, 2015 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT
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disappoints. the turmoil is starting to hit home. betty: will the jobs report give the fed even more paths about raising the rates? stanley fischer duet the bottom thehe after -- bottom of hour. putin's surprise intervention in syria that has everyone on edge. good day from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton. betty: let's get straight to remy. just in the last hour we have gone across the board read to in the green.
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>> we have turned from the red into the green and definitively so. gainerdaq is the biggest at half a percent there. chair bullard saying it is ok to the rates there. join me in my bloomberg terminal. of the s&p's 10 sectors, most of these have been in the red. now you can see most of them are in positive territory. financials are the biggest loser. down about two point 4%, but also paring those losses.
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the biggest lift coming from energy up 1.5%. another lift is coming out of health care. and pfizer is getting an equal rate wade -- equal weight rating to an overrate -- overweight rating. betty: what is going on their? ramy: it had been down for most of the bank that just in the past few minutes it had an uptake into the green and now it had 4/10 of 1%. its lowest since monday. of course fewer people means less money and less consumption. that uptick in
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boston. see it hasn also jumped to a one-week high. the fed hike their means it is less likely people pile into the dollar. the dollar is down by about 4/10 of a percent here. following --lly falling to a two-week low. since september 18 and the dollar had arisen fight two person. that is through yesterday. as you can see we are pulling back up just a little bit. mark: ramy joining us from the newsroom. betty: the unemployment rate 5.1%, which isat
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what economists were forecasting. the big disappointment was the number of jobs added. estimating that number would come in at 200-1000. mark: we asked thomas perez what is causing the slowing job growth. we have a strong dollar right now. dollar, have a strong exports become more expensive for other countries. so that is certainly a factor. mark: josh wright joins us in studio with more on this story. is this all about the strong dollar? josh: you talked about how the dollar fix manufacturers. is a lot of service jobs depend on manufacturing.
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of the most concerning things in this jobs report. slower growth in jobs across the service sector. questionly called into labor momentum in this country. betty: how did our economists read this wrong? josh: there has been a lot of talk, you may remember last fall about the u.s. economy as a relatively closed one. globalization is here and it is now. mark: is the u.s. economy just too weak to raise rates? josh: it is a little early to call that. two week job reports in a row. that puts a big cloud on whether or not we are ready for raising rates. we are so far away from a neutral policy rate.
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this is still accommodated monetary policy. we are still making some progress in the jobs report. mark: mohamed el-erian was on in the last hour and he said they missed the boat. he was saying earlier this year they would -- earlier this year. josh: the point is he has to launch the process. that is the challenge for the fed. so far they have been very balanced and kept markets call read -- markets calm. gaming this out before the fed meeting, which is how would the markets react to? would they take no rate hike?
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we keep getting more stimulus. or is that going to be that news? markets fall after that decision not to do anything. does that show you the markets are more fragile than we thought before? josh: markets start to recover. traditionally there are expectations over time. mark: is the slowdown going to have an impact on american jobs? josh: the biggest concern i had was what we call the confusion
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-- what we call the diffusion index. what that tells use the breath of it job -- of job gains is shrinking. we have less well diversified growth in the workforce. that suggests we don't have the resilience we thought we did. it is something we keep an eye on going forward. betty: where are we going to get wage growth? josh: it is one of the most lagging indicators. it is a lot harder to change someone's salary. we talk about sticky wages. unfortunately wage growth is not in the cards at the moment. low inflation. people talk about it a lot. if you see a sustained pickup, that would be a major signal. the fed's tried to get ahead of the game.
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yellen talking about this, they don't want to wait until they see the whites of the inflation's eyes. mark: josh, thank you so much. stanleyeminder that fischer will be speaking in boston. monetary policy will be the subject. betty: now the top stories at this hour. arnie will be stepping down as education secretary. duncan has spent seven years in the obama administration. he is returning to chicago to live with his family. serving asrently delegated deputy secretary. kevin mccarthy is retreating from comments he made suggesting the then ghazi committee was created to undercut the campaign for hillary clinton.
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mccarthy is a current house majority leader. >> there has been a big hacking attack aimed at consumers. about 15 million consumers who filled out credit applications may have had their personal data stolen. the credit tracking firm. the storm is pounding parts of the bahamas with 100 35 mile per hour wind speed there are no reports of deaths and injuries. east of cape cod massachusetts. at the stories. coming up in the next half hour. what are president obama's
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betty: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. all eyes are on paris as world leaders gather. putin may have been all smiles while being greeted by president francois hollande, but behind closed doors there is probably high anxiety. big bone of contention is whether syrian president bashar al-assad should stay in power.
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betty: ryan chilcote's and parents. what is the update? -- ryan chilcote is in paris. what is the update? ryan: the ukrainian president, the russian president, and leaders of germany and france are meeting to discuss ukraine. but of course the russian president hijacked the agenda. he did earlier this week when he started bombing syria. a group sat down with merkel and aland. .- and hollande neither of them trust the russian president very much. neither of them were very happy with the bombing of syria. were twoce and germany of the seven germany's who wrote that letter to russia, calling on them to stop the bombing.
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mark: how does president clinton and president hollande get on the same page -- president putin and president hollande get on the same page? the initial contention was that russia was going to be hitting isis targets, but then came word that he was hitting some opponents of president aside -- president assad's regime. ryan: you can be sure they leaders and german chancellor made it clear that should not happen and he should stop doing that. trust when it comes to vladimir putin is quite limited. the french were among the very first to come out and say they were concerned the russians were not hitting the islamic state. it appeared they were hitting everybody but islamic state.
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the europeans do want to see some sort of resolution to syria. now the refugees have been flowing in here. if he was more in line with their interests he may be willing to give them a hearing but that is not what they are saying so far. mark: let's bring in the great granddaughter of the soviet premier. thank you so much for your time. you heard our correspondent. what is your assessment of the sethi thethe parisians and the russians with regard to what is going on in syria? guest: putin is basically saying you can bomb syria, i can bomb syria. i guess we will have to bomb in two different ways. it is true what he was saying
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and the way rush it is looking at this is that anybody who is in opposition to a sod, they don't believe in -- to a sod -- two assad. they believe a sod is a legitimate leader -- they assad is a legitimate leader. difficult would be for the europeans to convince him otherwise. at it on the ground. betty: how emboldened by this option that president obama has not stood up to him. the president here at the u.n. and then a day later or a few days later he gives the
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u.s. one hour's notice before bombing syria. how much of those dynamics are emboldening him? guest: it is not about barack obama standing up to him. the united states did not have a viable syrian policy. barack obama promised a redline with weapons. putin thinks if i'mdon't have a policy, having a policy. you have to cooperate with me and don't tell me what's not to do because of interest. mark: john kerry was discussing what was going on with the situation in syria. but play will what -- let's play what he had to say. secretary kerry: if russia was serious than they can join us in be the effort of being the
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savior of this country, not the killer of this country. what effect does this having on the international community, who already slapped russia with sanctions? is this bringing international leaders together and saying this is something out of the norm? because russia seems to have taken unilateral action? or are some people breathing a sigh of relief because donald trump said let russia take care of isis? guest: i think it is both. says russia can join the coalition. and putin has been trying to show he is not joining anybody. he is either going to go it with or he is going to go iran. whether the united states likes this kind of division of global pattern that of global power is a better question.
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latest moves what is next to it jim conn is the executive vice president and chief investment officer for wealth enhancement advisory services. thank you so much. but to the markets expect stanley fischer to say today? jim: the market knows interest rates are going up. and zero interest rate is not normal, especially when you have gdp of 3.9%. and you see actual strength across the economy. fundamentally the economy still has momentum. it is telling you the interest rate should be closer to 2.5%. we believe that's where rates end up. we are starting to see a pickup in housing and business confidence and investment. are actually starting to see business investment pickup.
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consumer spending is back at levels we haven't really seen since before the recession. they have been deleveraging and now they have more money to go out and spend. between the consumers spending we are going to see a pickup. betty: they are still relatively weak when you compare them to before the recession. you mentioned business spending, but earnings have been coming down quite dramatically, as well as revenue. it is tbd weather business spending will be picking up. we are seeing ceo confidence pickup. towe get business spending pick up we could see gdp prince around 2.5%.
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mark: is that delaying the message or hampering transparency? jim: if you look at chinese growth. chinastill going to mean will generate more global growth and create more jobs than it did in 2007. the chinese economy is three times the size of where it was in 2007. it is actually still a massive amount of growth. china is having some issues. fundamentally the economy is still growing. mark: cio and executive vp at advisory services. betty: i leave you here with stan fisher. mark: stay with us.
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broker a peace deal between libya's two arrival governments. the u.s. secretary of state john kerry made a plea for immediate action. secretary kerry: there is no time to waste. we all know the threats that further hesitation will bring. libya have suffered economically, socially, politically, and its people have been hurt terribly. the path is open for them to achieve better. mark: libya has been in chaos since the overthrow and death of longtime dictator qaddafi. that crash occurred when a c-130 was taking off from an airfield. the casualties include six american crewmembers. the taliban and claims to have shot the plane down. the coalition says there is no enemy activity at the time.
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world's worst performing billionaire thanks to china's market collapse. the telecom mobile whose fortune has plunged 84%. according to the billionaire index, his net worth has fallen from 10 billion to a little over one billion now. fortuneing his personal to fund a nicaraguan challenger to the panama canal. some advice for silicon valley billionaires, give early and give often. the world's -- the world's third richest person has been urging techcrunch printers to give away half their fortune. he would have started donating to charities in a big way. the number of oil rigs in use in the united states is collapsing again. drilling rigs in operation fell by 26 last week. turned higher on the news. amorgan will pay the most in
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$1.9 billion settlement -- $1.9 million settlement. jpmorgan will pick up a third of the settlement. the case involves accusations that a dozen big banks conspired competition. federal reserve vice chairman stanley fischer due to speak at any moment at the federal reserve tank of boston conference on macro policy. joining me is carl riccadonna and economic editor michael mckee. a mouth full to say but are we going to glean any new information out of this? to know how the fed feels about today's jobs report and interest rates, no. this is a speech on macro monetary policy. how the fed keeps financial markets stable, whether or not
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they should use regulation, whether or not to even consider using monetary policy to help financial stability. mark: carl we will get to you in just a moment. let's go to carl. let me get your thoughts on this. to what we saw today with the september jobs reports. karl: i think he is going to repeat the template. can use angles to manage policy risks. using that blunt policy tool is a effective but they prefer it to be a last resort. any double if you enter in high enough. they want to lean more into the
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regulatory angles that have been preserved with dodd-frank. >> what karl says is that it is a blunt instrument, but it may be worth studying at this point. where therehe point are conventional ways of taking on financial stability or global problems that don't work, maybe then you could consider it. regulation is the best way to do it. karl: the balance sheet, how they could use that to more surgically impacted. >> for a senior member of the fed sometimes he had lips. it is possible he could say something about it. guess is he doesn't want to wade into the jobs report today until they get a handle of what they want to say about it.
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mark: mr. bullard was speaking today and he was making some comments about maybe it is still time for the fed to raise rates. maybe they can do something by now and the end of the year. have a jobs number that is significantly lower than what the consensus seems to the. that may give the fed cause, will it? karl: they have been very focused on getting off the year end. i keep saying 2015 for the liftoff date. odds have slipped to that increase. october is dead at the water. in the face of weak employment and staggering economic statistics overall, gdp is now 1.5%. to strike a hawkish
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tone. >> they backed themselves into the corner by continually using the phrase data dependent. is booming, car sales is booming. consumerism is in good shape. because these jobs numbers are lousy data, it is hard to make the case that they should be raising rates and the markets would not buy it anyway. october, i agree, is off the table. the case gets harder to make. were speakingene to peter fisher. what was the consensus? it had been coming in his words, broken for a while. >> they did not include the banking system instability
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problems in their models. peter was saying that had to be incorporated in. they don't have a working model that is going to work in the banking system. they don't agree on whether zero interest rates are a benefit. clearly if we are glowing it sub 2% in the corridor and job growth is slowing down, this raises a real question about underlying momentum in the economy. the inflation is not going to be there either. this is the major question policymakers mind. headline inflation's are going to be in negative territory.
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mark: peter fisher believes in the monetary policy has played out. >> most people will tell you the same thing. they bought a lot of bonds at the longer end of the curve. when we are at 1.9%, there isn't a lot of room to go lower. the question is not so much what else could they do, but the zero bound -- does the interest rate help the economy? there are arguments on both sides. >> i think it will be real buyer's if they phrase the rates in september.
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how are the markets looking today after that disappointing september budget report? ramy: markets are in the green. vice chair stanley fischer has been speaking in boston. shortly after president bullard spoke, saying the economy is ready for a rate hike. the s&p 500 is up 2/10 of a percent. by 4/10aq up the most of a percent. the market had been down. we of course clawed back into the green. want to show you the leaders and the laggards. financials had been the laggards. we are seeing improvement there. all of these off of their lows.
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we can see that reaction after that bad jobs report. we are below the flat line down up until that iran got blocked by the jobs report. let's go ahead and bring up the gold chart right now. this is up by 2%. office it to the dollar it had been falling all week. that makes the dollar less attractive. right now 1136.
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look at that course correction around the 10 a.m. hour. by 1.1 percent, benefiting from the likelihood that some analysts say the fed may not even raise interest rates. we are still three months out until 2016. the future looking out six months or so. treasuries right now, those are rallying as investors go into the safe haven. still below that threshold at 1.98. a lot of hesitation still on the markets. mark: thank you so much. now let's take a look at today's market close in asia.
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>> before the release of the u.s. jobs report, stocks in europe, 1.7 percent higher. pushed all the way downward to a decline of 6% before slowly rebounding. a global economy causing those gyrations. earlier it was hong kong who set the tone or the session after variousnounced a targeted measures to support the economy. have some data on u.k. home-building, which expanded at the fastest pace in the year. met -- sign of some so of some momentum. we have national elections. calmomberg poll suggests in the market as both major parties stick to the fiscal prudence.
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today up by 3.5%. singapore sovereign wealth fund is among investors that have expressed interest. volkswagen, shares dropping last week, falling another 12%. it faces a new round of legal challenges after cheating on emissions tests for years. the biggest gainer in europe this week, the judge supplier of floating oil platforms was ending a band -- a band that was implemented. i just wanted to see if it closed higher over the week. on fridaye rebound
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mark: welcome back to the bloomberg market today. you are looking at a live shot of stanley fischer. .e is making comments in boston according to a transcript of his remarks, the fed vice president saying the u.s. macro prudential toolkit, there may be a time when the fed discusses adjusting policy to curb financial risks. he goes on to say we need to pursue the potential role of monetary policy in fostering financial stability, while recognizing there is more research to be done. the fed vice chair stanley fischer speaking in boston. we will continue to follow his remarks and give you more details as soon as we get them. disappointinger's report. u.s. employers added just 132,000 jobs last month and added fewer jobs in july and august than previously thought.
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the week pace of hiring complicates the picture for the federal reserve. spoke earlier about what today's data could mean for the fed's next move. peter: it reinforces a question that has been in the back of my mind, whether the fed has missed a window? whetherzation ride -- they should have tried to normalize rates. now we are left with the -- they have told us they all raised the voices expected to move by the end of the year. now this data just raises that question again. i don't think it changes things that much from the uncertainty we had. >> you said the economy week. is it week or weekend or weaker? i agree with what you said on we have to see more data. we are on a down trend now.
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this raises that question. i think the fed has posed the problem that they are looking for an uptick in inflation. they have told us the labor markets yield compared to where it was three years ago. we are almost balanced in the outlook is what they are saying. certainly there has been a lot of healing. this report puts a damper on that. they have been looking for the uptick in inflation. no motion and that. that doesn't give them any comfort to back up on inflationary pressure. >> there is another professor up there who needs to take a massive victory lap this morning. as you know professor blanche flour is the world's great authority on austerity and its functions. an austere america? our economying
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through policy? >> i think we are in the sense that we would rather have a stimulus channel. i think a monetary channel has played its policy here. zero rates aren't moving anyone's expectations anywhere. i would rather have monetary policy a little normalized. i'm not looking for tighter monetary policy. real investment comes through the fiscal channel. i was certainly sign up for that. >> it sounds like you're saying the fed has boxed themselves into a corner. >> they can't because market expectations are so bad. >> at him time the central bank has to change market expectations. if they let the expectations dictate what they are going to do they have put themselves in a box. they have told us, all the voices expected move rates this year. this reportedly raises a question. i think they need to come out
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strongly and tell us what their view is. i think janet yellen did. it was a very forceful speech, in which she expects inflation to showing normal path over the next couple of years. i was surprised that speech was so different than what she said and wes conference. i would have thought the committee would have done the way five basis points. but they didn't. i don't have as much uncertainty about the data. i have uncertainty about what their reaction function is. the reaction function is a global reaction function. on through world war ii and through the economics that you studied and i studied, everyone else studied, are they broken because we are such a that including commodities can change u.s. economics?
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models are in the a difficult place and the central banks have admitted that. up until the fight -- up until the crisis they didn't have a financial sector. the policies just canceled each other out. i didn't have a banking system had a really didn't have finance. they didn't have the volatility markets as part of their model. big our capital markets are or how important the trading of volatility is in equity markets and interest rate markets, none of that is in their models. and think, monetary policy only works through financial conditions. vicks is a pretty good policy. and the model of the economy don't yet have the banking system and they don't have the volatility markets. and yet that is the only way they influence us, via financial conditions. i think the models have been broken for a while.
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mark: that was peter fisher, senior at the blackrock institute, speaking to michael mckee in new york and tom keene, who was on assignment up in boston. let's take a look at the markets. as we head to break, we see the stocks rebounding from the early route today. i was sparked by the disappointing job status. a lot of people saying it would come in. unemployment rate still at 5.1%. a check at the market still shows the s&p 500 up a third of a percent. tell industrials up a quarter of a percent. up 4/10 of a percent at 4646. talking about the jobs report and the fed. ♪
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hiring. what does this mean about the future of interest rates? reportthe jobs vindicated federal reserve's decision to delay liftoff? devonte market seems to think so. we will talk about when traders are now predicting the first rate hike in nearly a decade. bethe russian president may trying to assert himself on the military front in syria. where is he losing the most ground at home on the economic front. we will take a look at the economic update. >> i mark crumpton. >> i'm scarlet fu. >> bloomberg news has learned the financial stability board will phase in a loss absorb and see requirement for the world's biggest banks starting from the low end of its proposed range in 2019 accordingto
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