futures higher, much higher. ftse futures up 109 points. dax futures up 170 points. it seems that knows is once again good news. let's get your market open with caroline hyde. caroline: it is lower for longer. cheap cash keeps on coming. as we see that very or u.s. data coming out last week, on friday, 142,000 jobs added. well below expectations. wages don't increase. the market gets exuberant. only a majority in march is when we see more than 50% of a probability of a rate hike. not until march. that is helping drive money into the ftse 100. we are waiting for the dax to open. it closed up half a percentage point on friday. we got those numbers out at 1:30 p.m. let's get the fx market.

we are seeing the euro rally. the dollar is on the downside. less chance of a rate hike let's pressure on the dollar. we are seeing it off by about 0.1%. exuberant risk appetite drives higher oil. it drives higher copper. commodities getting a push higher this morning. let's get to a commodities stock. in the united kingdom, after a phenomenal rise, such mega moves. at one point, glencore up 70% in hong kong. the speculation building. we could see a sale of its agricultural business. the sales process could be worth up to $10 billion. ryan chilcote will be digging into that story. telenor up more than 2%.

disposing of vimplecom. its got 33% in that company. they are going to be taking an impairment charge. they've held it for 16 years. russia's slump has hurt vimplecom. telenor selling it off. we will wait for k+s to open. k+s likely to fall anywhere up to 15%. the reason is m&a off the table. much more about why potash corp. in canada no longer wants this asset. back to you. jonathan: thank you very much. no price for glencore yet. anglo up 4%. bhp up 3.6%. rego likewise. waiting for a move on glencore after an epic move in hong kong. let's get the shery ahn in hong kong for your asian market wrap. shery: great start of the week

for stocks across asia. we are seeing a fourth consecutive day of gains. we are headed for the longest winning streak since july. a lot of momentum after those disappointing payrolls and factory data undermining the case for a fed rate hike. japan's nikkei gaining for the fourth consecutive session, rising 1.6%. we are seeing the nikkei at the highest level in more than two weeks. the kospi gained 0.4%. closed onhina still golden week holiday. the hang seng rising 1.3%. the asx 200 gaining almost 2%. we have seen a rally in metals helping bhp billiton. it is not of course just bhp billiton on. glencore in hong kong sword.

some of those stocks soaring across asia. we are seeing oil and gas jumping more than 2% with oil extending those gains. let me take you through some asian currencies. the korean won trading at the highest level in two weeks. after the case for a fed rate hike was undermined. won's rise ishe backed by trade surpluses. we are seeing the australian and the kiwi dollar gaining today. australian dollar rising 0.3%, new zealand dollar up 0.5%. analysts say that given the long commodities route and the fact that that may not be sustained, the kiwi and aussie dollar may lose momentum soon. thank you very much. k+s. potash corp. with throwing the

proposal to negotiate a deal. guess what happens. k+s stock down 23%. hot escort withdrawing the corp.al -- potash withdrawing the proposal. glencore surges. the stock starts trading in london after jumping by as much as 70% in hong kong trading. is a 2015 hike dead in the water? we look at a soft jobs number. and, lloyds for sale. $2 u.k. will sell at least billion worth of shares to retail investors. ♪ glencore shares surged today in hong kong following reports that the commodities trading giant is talking to potential buyers. the share price in london just opened up almost 18%.

ryan chilcote, i don't know what to say anymore. ryan: let me give you a little perspective. we had the share price up just over 18%. was as much as 19%. it took forever to open. now we know why. a huge jump in the london shares. that beats the rise we saw on tuesday. that beats the rise we saw on wednesday. the daily average for the share price movement in september was 7.5%. this is extraordinary. 18%. that brings the share price of two where it was at the beginning of september. that follows on trading in hong kong, which was extraordinary. the share price two hours ago was up as much as 72%. came down to 25% where it is trading now. you see here, up about 18% in london. glencore came out about an hour ago and made us feel better.

we've been scratching our heads. glencore saying they have no idea why there's been such a fluctuation. over the weekend, "the telegraph" at a story out saying that the ceo was open to a takeover offer, though he said there's nobody out there that would buy the company for fair value. he said that also about the recommendation that he take the company private. that's the only thing i can see that would move the share price like it has. jonathan: let's get to the hard news. thenews from friday about sale of the agricultural business. where do we stand there? ryan: we are learning more about buyers for a stake in that agricultural business. 3 we have learned that singapore's sovereign wealth fund might be interested.

we already knew that the saudi arabia wealth fund might be interested. that's in a distant to some japanese trading houses. also, one canadian pension fund. there's robust interest, it would of here. we are learning more about what the sale would look like. apparently glencore discussing with some of these would-be buyers the idea of carving out the company. it would be a separate entity. that's the development. we got a note out this morning. saying that the talks for the sale of that unit are well advanced. they put a price tag of 10 billion for the whole unit. it isre has said interested in selling a minority stake. way tothere's no other imagine today's share price movement other than the fact

that this up until today was a penny stock. i guess it must be trading above one pounds now. people are really interested in what he allegedly said over the weekend. chilcote, it is still behaving like a penny stock. let's bring in trevor. he helps manage 83.4 billion pounds in assets. we're also june by javier. gentlemen, deep breath. glencore. javier, we kind of have no news over the weekend, then we have this ridiculous surge in hong kong. before we get to london, what happened in hong kong trading? stock forvery liquid hong kong. the volume was gigantic. it was 5 million shares. in our regular day in london, we

do about 250 million shares. there has been this talk about whether glass and bark is ready to start the company. i think that what he's saying is, if someone comes to put on the table a high price for the business, sure. example, if you were to offer me -- do i want to sell my flat in london? absolutely not. if you offer me 30 million pounds, it's yours. is he about to sell glencore? i don't think so. are we hearing anyone entertaining the conversation about buying glencore? absolutely not. jonathan: he speaks later today. it's an opportunity. what's the priority for him today? >> the priority is clear. he's not selling the company. the message should be, we're

fine, we're going to continue doing what we have promised, deliver a $10 billion reduction in debt. for that, we raised $2.5 billion in equities, we canceled the dividend, and now the gold yield is quite advanced. more importantly, deliver and bring some clarity on the plans for agriculture. some investment banks indicating that talks are underway. trevor, we've spoken about this so many times. , a slowdown int china, companies with too much debt, and immense volatility. what do you make of swings like this? it is listed on the ftse 100. we've had research reports in the last few weeks saying that current commodity prices,

glencore isn't viable. environment,n that you've got a lot of volatility. going bust or not going bust are very different things. you can trade out of lots of different situations. i think what happened with the payroll number on friday was, it said two things. there's been data suggesting china is not collapsing and the devaluation was more of a tactical move. secondly, now the fed isn't hiking rates anyway. china isn't collapsing. the fed isn't hiking. jonathan: stocks like glencore get caught in the middle. we're going to talk about the fed later. specifically, we are talking about a once in a generation wealth transfer away from commodity producers to commodity consumers. all we are hearing is the bad news. when do i start to hear about the good news? >> the good news comes out gradually.

we had this big drop in commodity prices. countries like the u.s. are net commodity importers. what happens is, when you get these negative shocks from commodities, it hits the industrial sector immediately. you get profit warnings straight away. the good news will filter through gradually. miles driven have never been higher. you are seeing people take advantage of lower commodity prices. the consumer side of the u.s. will stay strong even though emerging markets are under pressure. it's just like the 1990's. emerging markets have crisis every other year and the s&p doubled twice. jonathan: glencore could possibly double twice. when you look at the calls, 4.50 pounds, much lower everywhere what before you value glencore may be worth, are we still struggling to value this

company? when ivan speaks later on, does he have to communicate what his company is worth to investors? >> that's one of the problems of glencore. when i see some of the analysts having to explain what glencore is today, 4.5 years after the ipo, that it is not just about speculation, but about moving physical commodities, you get that the company has a problem. you should expect that a company the size of glencore should not really need to explain what its business is 4.5 years after its ipo. certainly, the company has failed to communicate. i think glencore have to make a greater effort in communicating and explaining the company to analysts and investors. jonathan: there's an open invite to join happier and myself on set. thank you very much for joining

us this morning. trevor is going to stay with us. glencore stock up just 8.21% right here. next, did friday's u.s. jobs number kill 82015 rate hike? investors are divided. ♪

shares of glencore in

london trading higher as much as 10% this morning. that follows a surge of more than 70% on the hong kong listing. the move comes after reports that the commodities trader is talking to potential buyers. the chairman of bloomberg llp is a senior executive director at glencore. also against is admitted chairman warns that the diesel emissions scandal could pose an existence threatening crisis for the carmaker. it has seen its market value fall 30 billion euros. vw faces a deadline wednesday to present a plan to fix 2.8 million vehicles in germany. the british government plans to sell at least 2 billion pounds of lloyds shares to households next year. members of the public will be offered a discount of 5% of the market price. the government plans to fully exit its lloyds stake in the coming months. welcome back to bloomberg tv.

you have a path across europe. we are blanket green. the stoxx 600 up 1.5%. coming off its third week of losses. the ftse up by 1.4%. glencore up almost 8% now. anglo american up over 3%. the dax up by over 100 points. the commodity crunch claiming on another victim. potash corp. has ended its pursuit of german rival k+s, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions. caroline has more. caroline: we are talking crop nutrients and a stock that is falling while the rest of the market is rising. it is tumbling, k+s, after an offer that was on the table from potash comes off that table. the stock price down 23% because market conditions have made this deal less palatable.

maybe because of market conditions dragging down commodity prices. farmers far less willing to start splashing the cash on nutrients. also a lack of engagement by the k+s management team being blamed. k+s rejected the deal. we see how the stock market reacted. when you look that k+s, this is the pop you got back on june 26 when the deal was unveiled. premium being offered. the board rejected it. deutsche bank pointed it out. deutsche bank is the number two shareholder of the german potash maker, k+s. they are the number two holder with about 3.5% of the shares. they spoke out, saying if you factor in the taker of the bid

not being on the table, you've got lower commodity prices playing into the mix. that has to be recognized in the k+s stock price. not a pretty picture in the rest of the market. mosaic, the biggest potash maker in the united states. they've been trying to curtail supply as we see demand ebbing from the foreigners. deutsche bank as the number two shareholder felt potash and k+s would have been better together. jonathan: thank you very much. will the fed also be spooked? it's the big question before investors. a soft jobs number lands on it a soft global growth outlook. that adds to concerns from that underwhelming 140,000 jobs figure. last friday's word of the day was week. >> this data does show the economy week.

>> this is disappointing. ask week job creation. week hourly wages. >> the economy has been slowing. rate back toion 1977 levels. in as long as job growth is excess of 75,000 to 90,000 a month -- >> even if the economy slows. >> that is growth in excess of underlying trends. >> it is still growing above potential. >> we're almost at the sweet spot. we are not that far off of the 2% inflation target. unemployment rate is down to 5.1%. >> it still doesn't justify zero interest rates. >> now is not the time to look for the fed to be aggressively raising rates. this report had a big effect. >> certainly take october out of the picture. >> it takes october off the table.

>> going to make it even more difficult to move in december. >> i don't think it takes december off the table. comfortablelot more with my march 2016 call. questionnforces a whether the fed has missed the window. lacks their window was probably september. >> i don't think it was september. >> maybe a year ago. i think the monetary policy has played itself out here. zero right isn't moving anyone's expectations. >> there's always going to be reason to stand pat. eventually, you find yourself in a situation where the economy slows and you're at zero. jonathan: when will the fed act? according to fed funds futures, the probability of a move this month is only 8% versus 34% in december. 55% see the fed acting by march.

trevor is still with us. , in other words, mr. window. what is the best window all about? in thee's an argument u.s., they call it reloading. that the fed needs to raise interest rates so it has lots of ammunition to cut interest rates later. if the economy needs a rate hike, fair enough. i don't feel you have to do it as a tightening up exercise. the u.s. again quite close to raising interest rates. the unemployment rate has been falling since 2010. conditions, the global backdrop, and breakeven inflation, these things do not say to me it is a hurry. jonathan: economists pushing back calls to 2016 now. can we look at the september jobs report as a stress test for

the labor market in the u.s.? it feels like the u.s. has come off the boil a bit. we talked earlier on about the fact that some of the stress in the markets does hit the industrial sector worldwide across all countries. the u.s. industrial sector is part of that. the isn is small change. that's a level when you have rate cuts. there is an industrial slowdown. the key thing for equity investors is what the consumer will do. i think the u.s. consumer will keep measuring. jonathan: i wonder if the bond market is going to get caught wrongfooted. the least anticipated jobs report in months. a lot of people got caught wrongfooted. the message from the bond market is a rate hike isn't coming. what does it all mean for the bond market?

>> depends what the alternative is. i prefer stocks and bonds. the sentiment has been bombed out on stocks. softness. u.s., but nohe evidence of absolute collapse in china. it's pretty good for stocks. we may get extra stimulus as well. this looks quite positive for the world economy. i wonder whether this is 1998-99. everything plunged. everyone cut interest rates. the bond yields roared higher. we've been wrong on this. i wouldn't rush in. jonathan: we've got literally 20 seconds left. when will they make a move? 2015, have you scribble that out? >> i think it's 2016. could even be q2. jonathan: thank you very much

for joining us this morning. coming up, life after austerity. we are live in lisbon as portugal's prime minister is reelected. ♪

jon: good morning. i am jonathan ferro. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. by 1.6%. the dax is that by 1.4%. morning, itou this is in the green, led by the minors. caroline hyde has the top stories. caroline: the roller coaster that is glencore can can -- continues. we are claim on two games of 9%

for glencore. there is much speculation and the press that they could be selling off shores. say they analysts could be worth $10 billion. that will help -- that will help the balance sheet. at glencore, they like the sound of asset disposal. we are having a rocketed this morning. k+s is down 22.6%. 7.8 5 billion euros. because of the commodity route and the concern about the management, and the fact they were unwilling to engage, they're off the table. k+s tables -- tumbles. vw is down by almost 5%. we have apologies over the weekend.

the designated chairman put out advertising trying to will back the client base in germany as they try to fix the problem by wednesday. they are trying to dodge those emission regulations. we also have breaking news today that shea's letter, which counts biggest client, is trying to bring back its initial chair sales. it is tainted as an existence threatening event. that is what the chairman calls the scandal. jon: the political take away from the weekend is it seems, portal does things differently. pedro declared victory late last night in the first general election since the company -- country embarked on economic reforms. we are in lisbon now. the first question is, how did after servingwin

a term that implemented a bailout? we do not see that type of thing happen in greece. many think it might not happen in spain. ist is portables -- why portugal so different? >> the latest opinion polls are already indicating this outcome. the coalition stress to the message that they were able to implement this program. they were able to do so without weding into the situation went through without a lot of bailouts. the economy is recovering. employment -- unemployment is slowly dropping. some voters recognize that progress. and they voted for him. even though he lost his majority in parliament. the coalition owner has the majority of seats in parliament. jonathan: we're going to turn the chapter and look to the future. when will that change for this government?

and can they serve a full term? portugal,cally in minority governments have not fared particularly well. there has been one since 1974 that completed its full term in office. what the government will have to do with the minority backing is rejected the socialists and make sure they do not block certain key votes. that is the budget and the government programming. that is the first in a present after they take office. that is essentially what they will have to do. when key votes come up, they will have to make sure they are not blocked by the opposition. hope there is not a motion that will vote the minority out of power. that probably won't happen in the next year or two. these governments do tend to last for a few years. but then again, only one has ever finished a full term in office. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this morning.

let's keep the focus on portable -- on portugal and go to the paris studio. appliedy a professor of economics at queen mary. great to have you with us this morning. the first question is the question i asked my colleague. they look at greece and i look at spain. the political environment is so different. you may series of tax heights and spending cuts, you still look for the same person. so different, as compared to these other european nations? >> the timing issue may have been relevant as well. there is a very interesting counterfactual incident. if the policies that his government implemented have not been in place. consck he was very ious of the alternatives.

he installed some austerity policy. looking at the alternatives, the portuguese people decided to vote for his government. jonathan: how significant is that? a minority government. i will ask the question. will he be able to push through his policies in the way he has in the years gone by? >> it is true that the historical record is not very strong. but it's also important to bear in mind that the last time the minority government was in power, the follow-up government was led by the same party and was based on an absolute majority. be a goodually template for implementation for important policies. think that portugal can look forward to a second spell of political stability. that the twopeful

main parties can talk and discuss matters, perhaps discuss some important structural reforms that need to be implemented. as i mentioned, portugal can look forward to a prosperous period in the future. jonathan: you mention political stability. for that, they would have to complete a full term. do expect this government can complete a full term? >> it will depend a lot on the developments in the opposition party, the socialist party. the socialist party was trying to have their cake and eat it at the same time by using political austerity. time, they were lining up with the extreme left. that was a difficult team to play. over the next two months, the decide onparty will their future strategy. i do believe that they will be

open to the conclusion that it will be best to focus on some austerity and morph structural -- and more structural reform. that will be the best way for them to get back to power. jonathan: i want to finish things but talking about greece. you mentioned them as an example for the people of portugal, not to go down the same path. the unemployment rate is about 12%. when will the people of portugal be rewarded for the fiscal discipline they have had for the past year? isthe 12% unemployment rate still very high. when compared to the levels that we can see in spain or greece, this is very very much lower. especially taking into account t he implemented. there portugal remains committed to structural reform, referring to implement issues, big

achievements can happen over the next couple years, in terms of lowering the unemployment rate. jonathan: the former portuguese secretary of state for employment, thank you for joining us. it seems portugal is not the only one voting for austerity. the conservative party conference at midday today. we are at the conference in manchester. the sale was announced this morning. what else can we expect from osborne later today? >> well, they already had an announcement. the infrastructure panel will be held today. he then became a minister on the brand. this is an example of him trying to capture the grand. it is very symbolic.

the investors are offer the shares at a discount. he said earlier today the sale is aimed at small investors. the idea is to return to public ownership after the bailout. jonathan: we come into this and the only thing anyone is talking about is the only thing that is officially off the agenda, it is europe. it is dominating the discussion. how do they deal with this? there are at least 20 meetings dealing with the issue of the eu referendum. there are a lot of talks behind the scenes about this. david cameron is under a lot of pressure from within the party to come up with a clear reform agenda. to spell out what the issues are. and what exactly he wants to achieve. jonathan: thank you very much for breaking that down for us this morning. existentialw's

crisis. the designated chairman. existence is very at risk. we watch what they say and what they do. bloomberg's most influential. ♪

jonathan: the emissions testing scandal would pose in existence threatening crisis for vw. those of the strong words from the company's chairman.

hans, bring us up-to-date on what was a busy weekend for vw. hans: a busy weekend for the board and the chairman, and the chairman to be. there was a closed-door meeting. you mentioned it earlier. we should put it up. isshows the core of what vw facing. uncertaincrisis of magnitude. it is a crisis threatening the existence of the company. he went to a variety of possibilities. he said they were not going to expose any brands. the are concerned about the effect it will have on their credit rating. their ability to raise debt. jonathan, you and i with a couple keystrokes can figure out what their liabilities are and their cash on hand is. they have 21.5 billion euros. when you compare that to other comments the mate in the press, they bring themselves up to the

1.5 billion euros in cash. there is a report out there that says they will need 78 billion e uros to cover this. last night, merkel weighed in and she talked about how that would not affect the overall brand of germany. she said, i believe the reputation of german industries, the trust in germany as a business location has not been shaken that we won't continue to be seen as a good business location. the day of german unity was over the weekend. instead of celebrating that, vw took out an ad and asked for the trust of germans. the new ceo said, we need to say one thing. we will do everything we can to win back your trust. one other comment on what is being reported out there, it looks like the fix they may need may benefit the auto supplier continental.

if they make -- it may make some of the parts that need to be fixed. continental is going to be another auto supplier that we will be watching throughout the day. jonathan: 30 quickly, for a lot of people, the stuff over the weekend bp are noise. what are the firm noise -- what are the firm things we should be looking at? hans: they need to have a six by october 7. -- have a fixed by october 7. there will be board meetings. next week, they will produce documents and appear before potentially, the united states congress. that data on wednesday is the dates i am looking at most crucially. jonathan: they build companies, they run banks, they shape ideas. bloomberg's fifth annual ranking is published today.

joining us to discuss the 50 names included is bloomberg's stryker mcguire. who tops the list for most influential? er: unsurprisingly, it is janet yellen. interest rates are being discussed over and over again. they have been four weeks and they will be four weeks more to come. that explains why she is up there. jonathan: why she is only front page of today's issue. janet yellen tops the issue. i wonder what the themes are the on rates. stryker: it is interesting. the united states is most represented on the list of 50 people. it is no supplies. it is still the largest economy for all of its problems every once in a while.

the second important thing to note is, even though we have had a slowdown in china, asia continues to be more and more represented on the list. there are more asians on the list than there ever have been before. the third thing is europe. unsurprisingly, there are not that many europeans on the list. in total.eight given what has been going on with the european economy, that not a big surprise. some of those who are on the list are on the list because of europe's problems. de, have merkel and la guar because of greece. jonathan: people will be wondering how this is compiled. is it striker maguire at his list compiling a list of names. know?r: how did you no, it is a little more

sophisticated than that. ultimately, it is subjective. everybody will argue, or could argue, about every single person probably and certainly, the position they find themselves in on the list. we start out with a much larger universe of names and we get those names from bloomberg news reporters and editors around the world. the editors and the writers discuss these. we also have advisory panels in different parts of the world. this is what we end up with. jonathan: stryker mcguire, the senior editor at bloomberg markets. it is a busy day for us. thank you. up next. for the datas away coming out of germany. i have got to say, looking at the numbers out of italy and spain, weakm weak. will it be weaker? ♪

jonathan: here are the top stories. shares of glencore are trading at 10.42%. based -- they were 70% at one point on the hong kong listing. the commodities traders are looking at potential buyers. the cheryl burke of bloomberg lp is an executive director at glencore. is slower than the 7.1%

predicted. the lower the expectations for asiah when developing in at 6.5%. the government planned for tsipras. must balance creditor demands with his campaign promise to alleviate the effects of austerity. that is almost it for this hour of bloomberg tv. pulse" is coming up next with manus cranny. manus: we're going to talk about this glencore story. i think it goes back. you have the business that they have potentially have buyers for.

a very bizarre line in the telegraph that says, he was mystified or not that a number by the idea of taking the company private. however, the company will consider it. if you are a potential prospective bidder, you are looking at a change of evaluations this morning. jonathan: gave the statement from glencore this morning. there were no reasons for the share price movement. manus: one would assume it is effective and what they have been reporting. we are going to get into the glencore story. and the vw story. the stories that have dominated bloomberg.com. we are bringing in the chair, lady barbara judge. she will join us in the 9:00 hour to talk about how you manage through crises. riancine will have fred co, the ceo in.

aheadan: here's the week for all of you traders and investors. tomorrow, we get the right decision from the reserve bank of australia. thursday, a rate decision from the bank of england. then, we get the september meetings as well. here is your data later. moments away from the pmi data. u.k. time, we will get numbers from the u.s.. that is the debt i want to look at now with caroline hyde. caroline: it is a miss when it comes to the german services pmi coming out. we are still above the number that shows expansion. it is falling away from the number from august. we are getting 54.1% for the month of september. that is when it comes to the final reading of services for

germany. in fact, it has been a bit of a torrid time in the country. spain is posting at 55.1%. the expectation was for much higher growth. 55 point 1%. indeed, we have seen the expansion going on for more than two years in spain. italy as well was a miss. but not assion, strong. they came in at 53.3%. it was a slowdown as compared to august. france was the outlier. it came in at 51.9%. it was an unexpected improvement from august. germany is slightly below where we have been helping. it is not as strong as in -- as hoped in italy, germany, or spain. jonathan: our colleague

stateside will be speaking for the blackstone ceo. fortuna investment group. do not miss those interviews. it is a monday morning full of gains. the stock 600 with the greeks. ♪

>> glencore shares a third. there are reports that the company is speaking around. manus: the incoming chairman warns the omissions scandal could threaten the survival of the world's biggest carmaker. >> as george osborne prepares to address the conference, they are selling at 2 billion pounds to the public. welcome