am alix steel. commutedglobal stock that commodities and it their best week in years, and oil climbing. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" earnings season is about to really kick off, will the rally keep rallying? joe: risk of a new survey for just it is more likely then it has been, we take a closer look at alix: and the secretary-general. we talked to him at the world bank meeting. we begin with market, the s&p 500 has had their best in the year, but we did bounce around most of the afternoon. for the week, certainly a big week for them. the fed comments from

seem to indicate that anything goes, so they're starting to look at the anecdotal earning season. joe: today was quiet, hardly had to watch today, but we are on an impressive streak with the s&p closing in the green, eight days. have to be impressed with the market. alix: what was confusing was energy stocks today, because we got two pieces of news that should have been bullish. lift the ban,w to the president will veto that. but if it of health with energy stocks -- helped with energy stocks. helpede of that really oil that month, they made me wonder about the efficacy of this rally. joe: they have not been really hot. let's look at the longer-term trends, where are we

at, some sort of market top? is a 20 year monthly chart of the s&p 500 and between much of 2000 and october 2007, that was about 92 months at the top. to may of00 seven 2015, kind of a similar pattern. -- another 92nths months, we have been stuck at this trading range, have we run testing -- steam? joe: everyone agrees that the bull market is getting pretty old. scarlet: we are due for a downturn. ,hen you look at the long-term i have a chart for the short term. global stocks have rallied 7.5%, market value, this bloomberg world exchange, we have seen $4 trillion of market value restored through yesterday.

thank you to peter for pointing this out, this leaves us with this peak to this low. alix: interesting. scarlet: right about their, 50%. alix: maybe you hit some resistance when you hit those levels. joe: i want to take a look, go into my terminal and look at chart, this is the photos and frozenrate of -- concentrate orange juice, the biggest story of the day. all, this asserts 5% rged 5% today after it was shown that florida orange juice output will be the lowest in five years. street movie of orange juice,bout

so this is the report that they really wanted to see in the movie. but from a macro standpoint, this is one of several bullish commodity stories we have seen. inc, soyhink and -- z going up, maybe this is another part of the puzzle. we are starting to see supply and demand leveling out. alix: that is a supply story. idea would be is that we are starting to see supply and demand down. scarlet: were the duke brothers position for it? this weekend, we will watch trading places. alix: earning season is upon us, we have s&p 500 companies reporting next week and joining u.s. discuss ahead of

equity, always a pleasure. >> great to be here. reports so have seen far that show -- from china. will this overshadow oil and the dollar? >> this quarter we have seen a smaller cut, but we have seen weaker global growth, so it makes me nervous, because normally, if you remember the last couple of quarters we went in with a huge cut and we cut earnings by 6%, this time we have only had a 4% cut in global growth has been a little weaker. china exposed stocks have shown some cracks. we learned about this, u.s. stocks with chinese exposure have not seen downward revision were commodities and industrials, anything with exposure to metals for energy have seen massive downward

revision, so that is the issue that has dropped to -- dropped. joe: so jumping over a lower hurdle, you think maybe that is not as low going into this quarter as people expected? not as low as it normally is, but on top of that that's really just 30, disturbing, the number of companies that have actually issued guidance over the last few months has dropped to an all-time low, so companies are going radio silence on what they expect to see. 26 this can see, just past december versus 65 for the average. >> normally it is 100 companies telling you what they will do, but this time everyone is why it and that is normally -- quiet and that is normally not a good sign. spookso is this going to

the market even more? >> the last time you saw companies stopped issuing guidance was during the financial crisis when nobody knew what was going on, so it shows lack of certainty and real grasp of what they will be able to earn. notso think that the fed hiking was a surprise and that could change the story for these companies. alix: this reminds me of what we ,eard from mining companies glencore basically saying i have no idea what is happening in places whereer companies saying, hey -- no idea what is going on in the most important country for their company. scarlet: what does that mean for companies who can offer guidance, are you naturally suspicious of them? >> the ones issuing guidance, you can still trust the numbers,

but guidance over the last few months has been positive, but the fact that most companies are shutting down the information flow, to me that is a warning sign. on: i want to get your take the dollar, for several quarters of the impact of the dollar on earnings has been something we watch for and mentioning the dollar in the fed meetings, it is known as a commodity. what do you perceive as the impact and when will the dollar story be over? starting to bes over now. one thing that is interesting is sla earnings for those companies that have salesshed overseas. tensionthey are under overemphasizing the dollars and factored multinationals --

dollars. multinationals are --, then the more domestic corporations. analysts got a little negative on the dollars impact, a lot of multinationals do well in dollar environment, because they are quality any scary world, they have hedges which mitigate their negative exposure to the dollar, so it has been happening for some time, they have been writing about it. we are at the other end of the trade where you want to buy multinationals that might have looked scary a few quarters ago. alix: you have a whole bunch of and afterand and october -- and then after october, we get bored.

should they be putting up signs along the way? >> one thing we noticed was later reporters have worst news and the early reporters, so the guys that do not have good news, they wait until they are further out in the earnings cycle, so they wait to say they did not too great. exactly, we are focused on other things. it is worth may be paying attention the whole season and really focusing on this as the quarter progresses. i do not think we will see a lot of bullish catalysts over the next month. scarlet: you are sticking with us the next half hour. we will be right back. ♪

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alix: let's get back to mark. on a morgan violence college campus, one person dead after a shooting at texas southern university in houston. this occurred at a student housing complex. the tsu campus is on lockdown, if possible suspect is said to be in custody. one person dead and three wounded inside staff at the university. they say that the suspect is in custody. this took place as president obama headed to oregon to meet with families of those who were killed in last week's shooting. thank you, but no thank you, that is what all right has said so far who -- to people who want him to make a bid for speaker of the house. he is said to consider a run.

remains resistant to the idea, but staffers continue to say that he does not want the job. he reportedly plans to take the weekend to weigh his options. more evacuations for residents of south carolina, they are bracing for the possibility of even more flooding. there is still trouble on the horizon, a storm system expected to come near the coast this weekend, bringing an additional inch of rain to some areas and threatening those swollen rivers. and groups in tunisia will share the nobel peace prize, the dialogue quartet is that health panelists say that they want data brought tunisia back from the brink of civil war. back to you. with the headack

of u.s. equity and his at bank of america. joe: we have seen a reversal where former momentum darlings like netflix and biotech have been underperforming and is some of the most hated stocks have been rallying, how much longer can this last where people are underexposed to some of the best? couldis interesting, it last longer. the reason that i say that is think a lot of what we have seen over the last month or two has been german by -- driven by the derisking. this has put pressure on popular stocks. how much it will go, if you look at mutual funds, and physicians have not been changed that much.

you can see tech companies, they and i think if we get any sort of positive point , or a sign of the dollar is strengthening or flattening out, that could help -- that could hurt the , so i doding shorts not think that we are close to the reversal. are holdinge longs on to their position, does this give them a chance to double down? >> is really hard to add on to your biotech position, so it is almost like, how much more extended do you want to see your fund managers get? i would not be that excited if i saw that my mutual fund was getting even more overweight in a sector that is pretty expensive and crowded. it is a riskier proposition when you are that overweight already.

alix: what kind of a velocity injuries can we expect in the fourth quarter, so many under performing, what kind of loss can we expect? >> i think we will see some benchmark hugging. it is hard to say, utilities did terribly then they started to work. it is almost like windowdressing, how the window just your portfolio in a year where it has been so bipolar. i think will happen, everybody just closes in on the benchmark. it is corporations, they do not know whether earnings are going to look like, so how do you invest in docs -- stocks? i do not think that the reversal is over. joe: you had this great chart recently showing the collective -- cumulative lows and passing

management versus active management. it is not look like there has been bounced back for active management. is there any light at the end of the tunnel, or will active management diet is that die a slow death? do notlow markets, you want to be passive. i do not want to say it, because we are forecasting equities, but let's say that the market turns out, we will realize that active managers, the guys i do pick stocks have actually protected us. joe: so do you see some stars that are outperforming? wellthink those who did will see in flow, they will -- it takes a couple of things come active managers looking better than what they have done over the last several years. last year, worst year on record for mutual funds, less and one

out of five money managers beats their benchmark. the benchmark did really well. but i think if we get past that and a few years were active managers actually add, that could get investors back into the active world. active managers, saying that they focus on high-quality stocks, who does not focus on high-quality stocks? managersid that, what and do you use to screen for high-quality sectors and who qualifies? >> we look away everybody is doing. we found they are actually overweight in low-quality stocks. scarlet: define low-quality? >> we are looking at earnings, if they are nice and smooth, that is high quality. if they are all over the place and he cannot tell what a committee will do in the next quarter, that tends to be a lower quality scott.

some managers have been getting more overweight, smaller, lower quality companies that might have perceived growth, where high-quality companies, here i would lump those multinational companies with smoother earnings, these have been shunned by money managers because they are seen as having no growth, perceived dollar of hair onkind them that they had been avoiding. i love qualities, this is my number one thing, look for high-quality companies that have actually done what they have supposed to do and it generated stable earnings over the last cycle. these will get you into some -- high-techg industrial, these are looking like high-quality stocks, versus those with high debt burdens and

probably will not do well as interest rates go up. scarlet: a great place to leave off. we will be back with more. ♪

-- thewhat'd you miss?" chance of the that -- fed raising rates in december is at 39%. a i believe the economy is on satisfactory track, speaking for myself, is the that i see a decision later this year in

december as likely appropriate. bear, evansis the disagrees with lockhart, and he "we think that the lien of this until the middle of 2016 and then a gradual path would be consistent with getting inflation back to percent within a reasonable. of time." see where you stand in this debate, a lot of confusion. >> in my opinion, are they loose up to tighten -- enough to tighten? i was surprised they were not going in september. it is not a done deal. i think that this would be bullish dividends

that it was ready to tighten. i think we are on the other side of liquidity. what i mean is, remember how the last five years we have had this market and liquidity has been everywhere. o,ery time that you had lpr did you notice that the rally was a little bit shorter than the earlier one. the market hasn't sold off on the news that the said -- fed said they will not tighten. alix: i think the worst sign for equities and the global equities over all is that we get another round of u.s. qe. i know this sounds crazy, but i think that that would be the forh now for u.s. stocks china, japan, for europe, because it means that $4.5

trillion in the u.s. was not enough to fix our problems and everything going on in japan and europe is not going to work either. so to me, getting off background zero is what we needed to fill like this whole operation works, in order to fix an ailing economy. joe: so you think, since september we did not get that hike, since then we have had one weson after another, saying will probably go december, you think that has helped the markets recover? >> i think so, but there is still skepticism among -- around the idea that they will go in december. highs, ie at prior would say that the market believes things are going to go, but we are not, we are still in , whatory, we are in this

is going on, what will it feel like when the fed actually titans. alix: the reason i ask, because globally market conditions have actually titans -- titans. we have not seen it here. >> we are in a currency war type of environment where the only area that is not doing this is the u.s. this is the reason that a lot of people think that the u.s. will not tighten, we have the upper and thaton the dollar really screws everything up. i do not think that the fed pays attention to currency, but they look at what other economies are doing. but ultimately, they are looking at inflation and growth. scarlet: such a pleasure.

so much great stuff. we will be right back. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?", we will get to mark with the news. mark: president obama in oregon meeting with families of victims from last week's shooting, eight students and a professor were afterwardsr -- and the gunman took his own life. not everybody is happy about the presidents visit, gun supporters are against the visit. artillery and air strikes are not enough against isis in syria, now isis