mark: i am mark halperin. joe: i am john heilemann. we will put you down as a maybe. happy national multi-cheese day, sports fans. ain't sanders crying. the next speaker of the house, paul ryan? >> if he decides to do it, he would be an amazing speaker. he has got to decide on his own. >> there is a good chance. >> i will not run against paul ryan. gets theyan

nomination, i would support paul ryan. >> his time is now. many of us believe you will answer the call. >> i think he has gone from a hard no to he knows he has to consider it. all of us are trying to understand he understands the support will be behind him if he chooses to do it. >> mitt romney's 2012 running mate in the current ways and means chairman is under pressure from all sides to run for the speakership. his answer is no, definitely not, almost certainly not. probably not. mark, does that mean he is going to definitively be the guy? mark: he might be. right now, it is the most likely option. there is a recess for 10 days. he will talk to his wife and have his first serious conversation about it. his dream job is to be chairman of ways and means. he has never wanted to be speaker. he understands most people in the party think he has no

option. he has a lot of questions to deal with. can he do this job and still spend time with his kids? speaker involves raising a lot of money. would he be better at taming the conservative house conference than john boehner was? john: those are good questions. i will say two things. the first is the spectacle has me feeling like charlie rangel. i thought i would never see that -- say that. the second thing is yesterday i said this man will be speaker of the house. i still believe in the end, paul enormously about a lot of different things but the future of the republican party matters most to him and in the end he will feel because of what is in his own heart he will rise to this challenge. mark: there are a lot of arguments of why he has to do it. he does not have a backup option. he loves being in wisconsin. he hates fundraising. u.s. policy.

he does not like schmoozing with members. for him nothing better than being speaker. i think he might decide to help them find another solution in the end. ask me, i would say there is no other alternative. everyone wants him. john: what he really likes is the survival of his party. what he does not like is the idea of the whole thing will descend into chaos and mayhem over the next year at least. mark: he is still skeptical. we will see. in a couple of minutes, we will show you what our iowa-new hampshire focus group said about rising alternative candidates in the republican race. marco rubio and ted cruz. until then, here's something to chew on. from this july until the end of september, ted cruz raised 12 mean dollars for his campaign. that is twice as much as marco rubio. neither comes close to what ben carson, $20 million. how cautionary should rubio's

haul be for him given he seemed to have a good quarter otherwise? john: i think it should be very of people to a lot who think marco rubio is playing the pole position in this race. people have been telling us over the last two or three weeks they think he is the front runner in some ways. this tells you a lot of people have been underestimating ted cruz, maybe overestimating marco rubio. rubio still has a lot of momentum. you cannot dismiss that. z's money andcru hold an important part of the republican electorate makes them stronger than many people understand. mark: cruz has a better organization in iowa. cruz's organizing in state after the first quarter better than rubio. cruz has a hold on a certain portion of the electorate. rubio is still looking for a constituency. the money is a reflection and metaphor for the. can spendbio's people

that anyway they want, but that is not a lot of money for a man who had a hot hand for a lot of the quarter. john: i did say ted cruz has important hold on part of the electorate. we are not disagreeing. ruz biggest problem for c is he continues to not show much traction in terms of actual voters. you can raise a lot of money, but if the voters are not into you, you will not be the nominee. rubio could be an alternative to trump. cruz has not wanted to try to be an alternative to trump. he can be overshadowed by trump. i don't think that is changing anytime soon. trumphe took a shot at and said he would not be the nominee. john: democrats pushed the chip on the table for the first debate. hillary clinton has the most to lose. bernie sanders is not doing debate prep. joe biden will probably be at home with a bowl of pasta. martin o'malley and lincoln chafee will be in vegas. five onese democrats,

stage and one looming offstage, who has the upper hand going into tuesday's night's debate? mark: i think sanders does. he will be nervous because he has never done anything at this level in his life. he is doing a rally in arizona, a rally in colorado. he is doing "meet the press." he is appearing at the snow label event monday -- no label event monday. i think the biggest advantage sanders has despite the confidence is if hillary clinton makes one mistake in the debate, she will pay for it. sanders has a bigger margin of error. that gives him the hotter hand. john: there is no doubt he has the bigger margin for error. i will say she has been on a roll for the last week. she has been emboldened and strong. the experience thing cannot be underestimated were overstated. she has done a lot of debate. she did a lot with barack obama and kicked his butt in virtually everyone in 2008. having that experience on

nationally televised debate stage it will give her an advantage over sanders. mark: a lot is up to the moderators. i don't think anybody is going to gang up on anybody but hillary clinton. i can think of 17 issues she will be on the defensive on. it is hard to see where sanders will be on the defensive, pending the moderator questions. from sin city to been city -- weber,ty, coming up, vin a friend of paul ryan joins us after this. ♪

when vin weber was on our show, he made news about mitt romney. tonight we are hoping he makes news about mitt romney's running mate, paul ryan. former congressman from minnesota and friend of paul ryan joins us. thanks for joining us. your friend, paul ryan, as best everyone can tell does not want to be speaker.

what do you think of the efforts from leading republicans to basically force him to take the job? vin: i completely understand why they want paul. leaderbe the best republicans have an elected office now. i think he would do a great job as speaker of the house. i would be excited about that. i think they have to be careful about overdoing the pressure on him. he does not want to do this because he likes the job he has now as chairman of the ways and means committee. the speaker's job is a fundamentally different job than writing legislation, which is what he wants to do. they have to be careful about putting excessive pressure on him. i certainly understand why they want him. he would be a great speaker. mark: sometimes people in washington panic and overreact. there seems to be a broad consensus that not only is paul ryan the best choice for speaker, but there is no other obvious choice and any other choice has more peril associated

with it in terms of dealing with the fiscal crises, etc. do you agree with that analysis there is no obvious second choice even close to paul ryan? vin: that is a tough question. i do think he is the best choice. he is an extraordinary talent and the best speaker they can have. he is not the only person that can do the job. part of the reason i am uneasy about the level of pressure put on him is it has not allowed some of the other competent people like greg walden or mac thornberry were john kline from minnesota, any of these people who would be competent speakers, to be talked about. there are other people and could do this job. i agree paul would be the best. people see this as a moment of total chaos in the republican party with rainer stepping down, mccarthy stepping down. no clear speaker to be. is this bad for the republican party? make the case this is not all bad for the republican party. in: well, you usually have

some chaos before you create something good. i don't necessarily protect this out for the next year or so and say it is all bad. i do think what is happening in the presidential race and in the house republican conference, although they are different phenomena, are reflective of the fact the electorate as a whole and particularly the center-right electorate does not know what it wants right now. it is unhappy with the direction of the country. it is unhappy with the leadership they have had, but they don't know exactly what they want. look at the candidacy of donald trump. he is not a conservative. he's barely a republican. yet he is rallying more republicans at the moment than anybody else. that does not say anything bad to me except we don't know exactly where we want to go. if you look at the house, that is where we are now. they did not want kevin mccarthy. they did not want john boehner. they want paul ryan today. the truth is the party does not know exactly where it wants to

go. mark: is there a way for the establishment to regain the whip hand? if not, what is the future for the republican party? vin: i don't think there is going to be an establishment restoration any time in the foreseeable future. a we get a president elected, new establishment creates itself. this is a period that will be characterized by turmoil and grassroots activism. i don't think there is a way for establishment republicans to reassert control over this process, nor do i think it is a good thing. i think you have to let it play out. mark: to finish where we started, speak directly to those who are putting too much pressure on paul ryan to take this job. what would you tell them? vin: i would say back off and let him make the decision. from what i understand, every bit of pressure and argument has

been made to him from every conceivable quarter. at the end of the day, you have got to allow him to make a personal decision. he is a person of enormous integrity and humanity as well as intellect. back off. let him make this decision. you don't want him to be dragged into this job if he does not want it. mark: former minnesota congressman, leadership number, and friend of paul ryan, vin weber. congressman, thanks for joining us. when we come back, you guessed it. the last little bit of our focus groups from iowa and new hampshire touching on new candidates we have not talked about so far after this. ♪

john: and now, the thrilling conclusion of our purple strategy. simultaneous focus groups of undecided voters in iowa and new hampshire. yesterday, we showed you what they told me and mark about outsider candidates.

here is what they think of the insiders, the flailing establishment variance -- establishment variance. >> jeb bush. >> out of touch, overweighted -- overrated. >> jeb bush. >> underwhelming, underdog. fighter, underdog. >> i think he would be overshadowed. >> experienced but has a lot of baggage. >> not really qualified. anyone in the room with a strong view about jeb bush? hands in the air if you think jeb bush is a conservative? no one in the room thinks jeb bush is a conservative. mark: is anyone here familiar with jeb bush's tax plan? john: whitey think jeb bush has not caught fire more with the republican party? >> people want something new. people do not want a politician. >> he is the typical politician out of touch.

>> i do not think he has asserted himself enough. >> i feel he is tepid. >> i can't believe people will get behind another bush again. >> his baggage is always going to be there. you cannot take away the good or bad of the bush administrations. but --ked both john: two is enough. >> been there, done that. >> what is the source of his appeal? >> by the polls, i don't think there is a lot of appeal. >> he knows how to work through politics. that is a big part of being in washington. >> do you want to sit down and have a beer with him? does he seem approachable? >> chocolate milk. john: john kasich. >> i don't know much about john. >> i don't know much about john either. john: john kasich. do you know who that is? >> i don't.

>> no idea. mark: anybody have three words for john kasich? anybody have strong feelings about john kasich? >> intelligent but no chance. [laughter] when governor kasich talks about having been chairman of the budget committee in congress and washington, two-term governor of ohio, does anybody find that appealing? three of you find that appealing. >> i think he has done a good job changing in the economy and creating jobs to an extent. here is my biggest thing. i'm sorry, guys. i'm tired of the same politicians saying the same thing over and over again and every debate is the same. we are going to do this and this, and nothing gets done. i think he would get caught up in the same old politics as usual. >> why don't you find him appealing? >> glorified accountant basically. >> everything he has done has not changed a thing.

he has been in that game with all the accounting. he has been in the thick of it. he's part of the problem. >> chris christie? >> he is there. [laughter] who thinks governor christie has a good chance to win the primary? raise your hand. nobody. >> he is intelligent. i think he knows the washington game. >> chris christie? >> in-your-face. >> lost. lost touch. >> not impressive to me although he has done good work in jersey. >> passé. >> corrupt. >> of noxious. >> intelligent. wildcard. >> too jersey. john: the conventional wisdom is a lot of people in our business, and politics think jeb bush can still be the republican nominee. chris christie maybe even. i saw no evidence of that in iowa and new hampshire. it was one of the biggest takeaways from these focus

groups for me. the: those are three of four main establishment candidates left in the race. and there was very little awareness of the three of them and what they knew, they were not interested. there are tons of establishment votes to be had even in the age of the outsider. any of those three could turn it around. but as you said, focus group suggested all three are having serious problems with voters in iowa and new hampshire. the polls reflect that and the voices of the voters reflected that. john: it is most problematic for bush because we have been hearing the same thing from focus groups in the spring through the summer. we are now in the fall in iowa and new hampshire. we have not found any enthusiasm at any point this year. for a guy as famous as bush with such high expectations, it would send a chill down my spine if i were jeb bush or his people. mark: i'm not surprised casey is not well known in iowa. the super pac's meant millions on ads. he has gone up and down in the polls.

it is amazing the lack of awareness and lack of support for him in new hampshire. john: let's look at one less piece of video from the groups. a snippet of the alternative, on the rise candidates. >> i think he could be a good president. i think he is conservative. his command of the facts is better than other candidates running. >> what is the source of his appeal? >> his ability to cut to the core of most issues. >> senator marco rubio. >> honest, straightforward. >> young, energetic, honest, conservative. >> statesman. >> new ideas, innovative. >> i think he is young blood but inexperienced. >> how many of you have doubt marco rubio based on his age and relative inexperience is ready to be president? about half of you. >> i think he could make a good president. but i don't think the time is right. >> i think of him almost as a

better candidate for vice president. he wants to reposition russia as a geopolitical force. he is exploiting a vacuum this administration has left in the middle east. here is what you will see. the russians will begin to fly combat missions in the region, not just targeting isis, but to prop up assad. he is trying to replace us as the single, most important power broker in the middle east. this president is allowing it. >> what you think about that performance talking about foreign policy? >> spot on. >> clairvoyant. >> he knew that would happen. >> how many people agree with what marco rubio said? >> what he said has happened since then, so obviously he had a good handle on what was happening. >> i think it shows his understanding of foreign policy.

i feel like our current administration does not have that understanding. >> is it appealing to you as a republican he is a latina? >> no. >> i would like to say i am colorblind. >> irrelevant. >> what appeals to me about him immigrants, son of the american dream i guess. when did this land go from the land of opportunity to the land of give me? i think i can agree with him on that. >> he stands up for what he believes in. he was willing to be the black sheep in his own party. >> constitutional. >> up-and-cominer and has potential. >> who would you like to have dinner with most? >> ted cruz, intelligent banter. >> which of the republican candidates would best stand up to vladimir putin? >> ted cruz. >> i don't know. >> donald -- donald trump. >> marco rubio. >> it seems there is a lot of favorable ted cruz views.

i would like a few people to explain why ted cruz appeals to you. who believe he is a person stands on his convictions. they all say that. but he has proven he is willing to do that. >> he has argued cases before the supreme court and won. >> how many people would consider voting for ted cruz in the caucasus? every single one of you. about the, we talked rubio increase fundraising contrast earlier in the show. do a compare and contrast in the human level -- at the human level in the focus groups. mark: cruz is much stronger in iowa on a range of things. rubio had strength in iowa and new hampshire. they like some things. they are skeptical of others. i still think rubio has a fundamental problem. it is hard because he is not doing well to play everywhere.

should he focus on either iowa or new hampshire? does he continue to try in both? john: we both saw the same reaction to the rubio debate performance you saw in the clip. we talk a lot about rubio's communication skills. what is the first time i have seen tangible evidence of a group of voters who saw him give a performance, knock it out of the park, and they were wowed by it. that is something he can build on going forward. mark: he has a lot of credibility on one level. on another, there is doubt he is ready to be president. that is something trump, bush, and other candidates will harp on. to the extent rubio does rise, he will have to handle it. john: watch out for ted cruz in iowa. we will be back after this. ♪

will hostonday, we this show live from my favorite city, sin city. tuesday, we are hosting a special hour-long episode.

chiefl be joined by union and the former los angeles mayor. it will be like "the hangover" without the tiger. mark: see you monday from vegas. have a great weekend. sayonara. ♪

emily: a multimillion dollar tech merger is in the works. offering $33 billion for emc. emily: i am emily chang. this is "bloomberg west." barclays is the latest to downgrade the stock amid continuing questions about delivery. over is reportedly pointing a fever at an industry rival in a major data breach. the man, the