narrator: a new man in the top -- anna: a new man in the top job at barclay's. mark: inport numbers extend the longest losing streak in history. licensesnardo dicaprio the rights to make a movie about schedule. eating it's 6:00 here in london. guy: the resolving -- revolving

door at barclay's. anna: it's another american banker. guy. and halfway between anthony bob. he knows about investment banking but he's also good with regulators. barclays has been on a roller coaster ride not only with c.e.o.'s but let me show you the chart. that was the picture they have man we'll be talking about a lot. the diamond era which was short. the stock actually was up in jenkins' tenure but has been falling. era starting. anna: and now j.p. morgan, most

reclently -- recently in the hedge fund sector. that's the banking story. we'll be focused on russia today. russia over there at the calling forum. guy: we're going to be talking to a lot of figures, no pressure there. the other stories you need to be aware of today, keeping an eye on the s.a.p. miller story, we have a report out suggesting the latest offer has been rejected but we're getting closer to put up or shut up deadline tomorrow so keep an eye on that story as well. i can't ignore the wolf of walsburg as well. anna: aparaphernalialy the casting decisions have not been made, maybe there's a cameo ppearance. it seems barclays may have a new

boss. arline hyde has the details. caroline: boston born, investment banking bred, sounding familiar when it comes to chief executives at barclays, mare their reducing to the norm. they're reverting to jedd staley who sounds similar to bob diamond he led the investment he spent decades at j.p. morgan. he was passed over at j.p. morganened ap left to head -- to be a partner at hedge fund blue mown take. he's on the u.b.s. board. maybe this is where he's carving

a name having a way with egulators. regulators have been informed ey want staley to take the reins. he was among the top runners along with the finance director and chief operating officer, the internal candidates. we know why they seem to want a little bit of investment banking right now. we understand of course that the chairman had said that the chief executive, jenkins who he wousted in july, found it difficult to deal with the investment bank, particularly with shrinking the investment bank. that's why they need the know-how of a man such as staley, focus on debt and capital marks. these are the key prioritiers in bank. this is a man coming to the help to be able to stare -- to the helm to steer that new course and turn it around.

investment banking is the weakest in terms of return of the four unions of barclays. it helped their previous quarter in terms of numbers, we saw the credit card area driving numbers up but it needs to improve further. let's have a look at the challenges that face staley as he takes the h lembings it's -- helm. boost the share price, they're still trying to shrink the bank, $20 billion by 2017. this is the best performer of u.k. banks in term os share price. just starting to dipe -- to dip at the end there where we see the fuel to the fire when it omes to the share price. guy: let's get you news out of asia. chinese stocks under pressure, weak import data, let's see how

that's rippling over the region. juliette from hong kong. juliette: we are seeing most of the markets in the red today. imports falling by 20.4% in u.s. dollar terms year on year in september which was well below estimate. in fact the 11th consecutive fall we've seen, monthly fall for imports in chi that. that's weighing on sentiment as well. but also the fall in crude oil price, oil falling from those highs we were talking about yesterday, impacting on mining players in the region, particular pli in australia. here in hong kong, shares tumbling in london trade yesterday following that announcement to sell two of its mines to pay down debt.

we've seen shares fall significantly here today. some other stocks in focus are the automakers. china car sales growing -- at their slowest pace in three years this underpins why the chinese government needed to inject more stimulus and they did so, of course that last month by cutting the tax on car purchases. some of the carmakers coming under pressure. in hong kong, motor shares up a little bit, up almost 1%. a big pickup in casino stocks in hong kong. that week holiday gave a boost to macau casinos, gaming revenue much higher than expected. the mood weighed down here in asia by the fall in crude oil price. guy: juliette, thank you very much indeed. let's talk about the roves the day. t's going to be a busy week.

anna: we've got a number of points to tell you about. in europe, u.k. inflation -- and out 0 out of of germany, the zew data at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. guy: do you worry about chinese trade data? >> i haven't had much time to worry about them, i've stared at them in the gloom. a lot of this will be a price affect. if you import raw materials and tick a chart up of year over year. where do i put this in terms of a dollar figure? 5:00 in the morning is early to work on that guy: but it's down. kit: down 240 from 300. that's more than a 20% fall. 10 you know, they're not as bad

i don't think in fact as a die hard emerging market commodities bear would have liked them to have been. however, we've had a nice run for a week in commodity prices and emerging market equities, currencies, you name it. everything is better. this is going to take the gloss off it. the australian dollar, for example, i don't think it's a ame breaker for the banks. anna: last week we saw a surge in emerging market, the biggest rally since 199 is that something that continues from here or something to look back on in kit: i don't think this is necessarily going to stop it. i think it was triggered by the federal reserve's decision not to do anything on rates, then l the pressure coming out of the rem anymoreby.

what are we worried about again? the all clear and a bigger rally will happen when you think bigger emerging markets, and economies are growing and accelerating when people get optimistic that next year's growth are better than this year's. we're some way away from that. anna. it's really a fed story last week? kit: there's a problem in my mind, i'd rather the fed raised rates and the u.s. economy slowed enough. if the economy strundles alon at two pibt something -- two point something, that's good for emerging marks. but if the fed is on hold because sust slowing, and a bunch of economies who still at their hearts are exporting economies won't look that good and then we can go back to worrying about debt levels and all the things that i think we should worry about. so we're in a short-term rally that may be most of the q4

rally. certainly a number of people want to make some money in q4, because it's not been an easy year. but i'm not sure it stops today. guy: how do i trade it? kit: normally i hide under the bed on days like that. anna: thanks for coming out for us. kit: i don't want to join in with a great deal of enthusiasm that just because it's the fourth quarter, it's going to rally. i would like to oppose this move at some point, feels too early. i think it's going to be difficult. we've got, you know, we've got a meeting that may provide more easing in 2 1/2 weeks time, we've got another payroll coming after that. there's a lot of potholes in this road but the amount of -- certainly the amount of short covering you've seen in the speculative end of the market is

hubling. guy: it has felt like a squeeze. kit. right so when someone says where would you like to reshort, can i just please wait for it to settle down first? guy: go back under the bed. anna: thank you for dragging yourself out from under the bed. guy: we'll make sure he stays out from under the desk the rest of the hour. we're going to moscow, we'll be live there in a moment.

anna: welcome back to "countdown." here's the stories you need to know this morning. close to naming

staley as their new c.e.o. he's the frontrunner for the job. 23 approved the appointment could be announced within two weeks. anna: s.a.p. miller doesn't think the latest offer is high enough to begin formal merger talks. they're also said to slew the $760 pound -- the 760 pound offer enough to extend the eadline. guy: sales in wines and spirits helped offset lower than expected estimates in fashion and leather goods. chinese tourists chose to buy ia broad.

anna: we learned that hollywood is looking to make a buck off the volkswagen scandal. hans has the latest. how bad would things get for v.w.? good morning to you. hans: it depends where you look. if you look at china, things may not be as bad as feared. if you look to brussels, they could be pretty tough. if you look to the u.k., they'll have expensive fixes in the united kingdom. brussels, the head of the european investment bank say they may have to look at the loan made to vokes wag ton develop a clean engine he said in an interview he didn't want to recall the loans immediately because there could be problems there. then in the u.k., 400,000 vehicles could require a costly fix. that requires, it would be both what they do with the software and something with their fuel injection which i know you understand anna, guy does not. then let's take a quick look at

china. in china, thingers in luxury sector don't look as bad as fear. we spent a lot of time concerned about china, what that would do to the wealth effects. daimler, their sales up 51% on the year, 53%. b.m.w., excuse me the month. 53% for the month of september. audi, a part of volkswagen, up 237b93% in september. you look at the luxury sector across the board, for the first three quarters, we have number, it doesn't look bad. i know you know what fuel injection mean, i won't have you quiz me. anna, guy. guy: i'm not going to take -- i'm going to take the conversation in a different direction because that could be dangerous to say the least. talking along the same sort of lines, hance you led our coverage of the v.w. scandal thus far. do you think you are going to get a walk-on part --

anna: a cameo. guy: a cameo in the movie. hance: i don't think so. i wasn't smart enough to see it could be a movie. i think there could be a great story in this. i don't know who will play the parts. we'll have to talk about that offair. muller, the new c.e.o., you need someone from a bond movie and i think we all know who we're thinking about to play him. he's got white hair, killer blue eyes. then how do you cast -- the casting on this, maybe i can get a bit part helping the casting. i feel like i know these characters pretty well. anna: hans, you're selling yourself short. you could get a part there. i can't believe they're make a

haven't aren't -- even written the book yet. guy: they haven't even done the b.p. movie yet. anna: that one is coming out next year. let us know if you hear from them, hance. guy: back to something more mundane. our chief asia economist joins us now. tom, china's exports beats expectation in september. overseas sales stabilizing. are we starting to see that? china's yeah, it was export numbers but if you dig into the detail the story hasn't got a lot better. firstly even though they beat expectations for a big contradiction, they still registered a small contraction, so that's the third month in a row of falling exports to china.

secondly, if you look to the future, while the p.m.i. export orders indexes are both lodged in negative territory, that suggests we've got a protected -- protracted period of export weakness to come. anna: tom, thanks for joining us from beijing. only two stories when it comes to chinese trade data. guy: yeah, try to wrap it all up a together. kit is still with us. various people have said they think the rate is going to go higher this year. do you believe them? because pricing in the market would seem to suggest otherwise. kit: i don't, on balance. look, i think there's a significant minority that would like to get rates up from zero almost on principle because the economy is not that bad. there's nothing terribly wrong with it. but you'd need a lot of sunny days where nothing was going wrong in emerging markets and no adverse news because the one

thing you won't get is the upward pressure on any form of inflation in the states between now and then that provides a compelling case. the majority will say, we don't have to go yet. why don't we wait another meeting? they can keep on saying that. i think that makes december less than 50% chance. you'd have to have an enormous number of things go right. lots of sunshine and happiness in emerging market farce little bit so there's no turmoil coming from the global environment. and then you'd get a hike that, by the way, frankly would be a nonevent for financial markets to the extent it would be so wrapped around with, you know, they're not going to go very far. anna: do you worry who is in charge of this decision making

process? that the markets are not listening or the markets are attuned to different things? they're not on the same path. kit: they're not on the same path. i think that in a sense, do i worry? no, i end up thinking the peak level of rates is even lower than the lowest number i ever imagined it might be. six, nine, 12 months ago. you can imagine a circumstance where as the economy trundles along with this two-point-something pace, unemployment rate fall, inflation not going up, month after month, that you get rates up a little bit. but yeah the messaging means that you can't get up to price in anything that's even a second cousin twice removed of a normal weight cycle. it brings the scale of the cycle down all the time. guy: this amazing communication

trategy they've created is communicating nothing but confusion to me. kit: i think it's a split at the moment -- guy: do they tell you anything? do they enlighten you in any meaningful way, shape or form? kit: i know people who try to ut a name by each dot. to be fair, you can glean from that that they're more reichly to go when you change the composition of the voting panel. but oriole, no. i think the dots overall, the further out dot, destination dots, just seem unrealistic. so they're another way of mess aning to us that they can bring them down a bit or fine tune it. anna: kit, thank you. guy: as oil stabilizes and

problems in ukraine eases, investors are putting money into track the nds that russian stocks. are we going to see a russian rebound? ryan: that's what everybody is hoping here in moscow at the russia call in conference, the biggest conference here in russia. everyone is hoping that a rebound is coming. it looks like it but that's hot money if you will. economically we're not seing that yet. it's a conversation we'll have with russia's central banker, we'll be talking to her later today. she's got a difficult situation on her hands. on the one hand, russia is in a recession. some people are saying it could be the longest recession russia has faced since vladimir putin came to power. on the other hand, russia has the second most volatile currency in the year after brazil currency, second worst

performing currency in the world after brazil, that's if you look at the last year. part of that sol tillity is that it does go up and has been going up for the last month yet inflation is still high, around 15%. rates still stand at about 10 1/2%. he's had to ease pausing. we're going to talk to andre costone, c.e.o. of the country's second largest back pping it's under sanction bus it's rebounding, stock prices up 30%. there's hope there will be rebounds but it's too every throw call that. guy: how worried are people where you are about what's coming out late her ryan: they don't think it's a game changer. they don't think the dutch will come out and say anything that will change anything. they think the easing of tensions in ukraine is the important issue. many people here think that the sanctions will be dropped or eased come january and they think that would improve the

investment climate. the biggest factor is the oil price and that will determine things. anna: ryan, thank you. guy: we'll take a break and continue in a couple of minutes.

guy: it is 6:30 here in london, 7:30 in brussels, these are the stories you need to know this morning. anna: barclays is said to be close to naming jes staley as its new c.e.o. years at j.p. morgan before going to blue mountain. he's the frontrunner for the job if approved the appointment could be announced in a few weeks. guy: miller doesn't think the latest offer is high enough to begin formal talks. the london based brewer is said

to view the offer too low to warrant extending a deadline of 5:00 p.m. london tomorrow for a firm bid to be made. anna: lbnh, the luxury goods maker, growth is jumping. demand for wines and spirits help offset lower than estimated sales of fashion and leather goods. chinese tourists chose to buy abroad. guy: we are an hour and a half away from ethis european market open. caroline has the details. caroline: we're expecting a soft opening. it's going to be a slightly lower day in european trading because of this piece of data. imports, chinese import, the data slumping. this is an 11th straight month that we're seeing a decline in imports. if you tom -- if you come in closer you'll see they declined

17.7%. that's yuan basis. on dollar basis, down 20%. this is sending shivers down the spine of where demand is going for china, where domestic demand is. adding to that auto sale. we get number for auto tales, passenger vehicle -- vehicle sales up just 5.8%, the slowest pace for auto sales in three years. so again, adding to the woes of the auto sector, particularly that of germany. that's what's happening in terms of data. this is what's having an effect in china. we're seing the hang seng in hong kong lower by a half percentage point. putting an to end such a significant rally we've seen, we've seen basically day upon day and every day this month we've seen gains in the x.t. market across the world, global stocks rising every day that -- every day this month. that has now come to an end.

let's look at curn sis the aussie dollar is falling, the downward pressure from this data on commodities focused currencies. talking of commodity, oil just down, w.t.i. crude down by 4% over a three-day period. the reason, opec just revises some of their views in terms of supply and indeed demand going forward. we'll keep an eye on oil traders when they come to start trading at 8:00 a.m. anna: americans pay more for prescription drugs than anyone else in the world and costs have caught the eye and ire of politicians hoping to become president. at tonight's -- as tonight sees the first democratic candidate debate, hillary clinton and bernie sanders have been vocal and market moving on the subject of pharm. >> three different drug,

treating three different diseases, made by different companies. but there's one thing they have in common. over the last three years, their prices have rocketed dramatically and they aren't the only ones. partly it's companies putting new price tags on old drug sms those hikes get attention, not least from u.s. politicians. even though the price of drugs has risen, drugmakers announcing their own values fall as the term price controls rings out around washington. an investigation into the pricing of hepatitis c drug in early 2014 saw manufacturer gilead fall 5% in a day. and touring pharmaceuticals' overnight decision to raise a price from $13.50 to $750 prompted this tweet. , it ing to price gouging

led to a fall. it seems the political debate could prove very costly for big harma and biotech. at where get a look we stand and a european perspective too. we know this is part and parcel surrounding the democratic debate. put it in con tegs for us. give us a sense of what's going on here and how big a problem it is for the pharma sector. >> nobody likes to see prices rise from $13 to $750. how big a problem is this for the pharma sector, from a much broader perspective than the two or three companies that have been mentioned? it's something nobody likes to talk about, nobody wants to bring out openly in the discussion but there are so many nuances to this conversation. the reality, this was a good, interesting idea to latch onto,

that's a good phrase -- you go to hospital you don't know how much you paid. you go buy a prescription drug you know how much you paid. this is something people comprehend ease wrer than saying, the fact that we're paying 35% over -- of our health care budget on hospitals, i don't feel that. it goes through insurance, etc. this puts a really good value of opportunity that they manage to latch onto. anna: it's affecting a number of companies, that piece -- as that piece we just played spelled out, sam. which companies will be less ffected by this? sam: we'll probably hear more about this in the debate. there's other stuff to talk about, syria and gun control. it depends on where the conversation goes. what other companies are really affected from a retoric perspective? i think we'll see the same impact, the same issues and the

me companies again, valiant, allegan, that's been in the news. there's a list of companies. touring is a private -- turing is a private company. will they bring something new to the conversation tonight with regards to drug price control, etc.? i doubt it. i think they played their cards nd will keep playing the same. europe -- guy: it has come under pressure of late. what's the ripple effect on our side of the pond? people paying attention over there, drug companies obviously this is the biggest market in the world, the u.s. they need to pay attention. also some of the ideas could leach across as well. sam: it is the biggest market. everybody makes a lot of money there. one thing that's important to note, you see the share price drops started in july. i think there was a potential switch away from what is the

cleanest defensive sector of -- in a world that may be thinking about interest rate rises. gip there are other market forces at play other than hillary. sam: it pushed at an open door. there's been a lot of talk, especially on the biotech side are we in an overvalued state? the biotech is up about threefold. i think this pushed on an open door. anna: kit are you transfixed by the race to the white house yet? or are you leaving that? kit: transfixed in the sense of observing that the front runners will be the household names, definitely not doing as well as the outsiders. that's a global move we've seen in the u.k. new york spain, pretty much everywhere. that's been the overarching trend. you know in the u.s., these -- because it's a very two-party

race. you get having two leaders. seems like the debate about drug prices sort of comes to the fore and have ripple effects. i'm interested but i have no idea how it's going to play out yet. i think that's difficult. anna: do you see it as an overarching global trend, voters being drawn to the unlikely challenge to the mainstream, outspoken candidate? or is it so driven by individual factors in each case that it's not the same narrative? kit: i think it's a plea from voters to say, i don't know what i want but i want something, more conviction, more genuine, and different. it's a plea for can we go in a different line? it's got echoes in the sense that you get from all the things that happened and economics, again on effectively a debate about equality. anna: when you read editorials

that linkiermy corbin and donald trump you think, yes, i see the parallels but there are so many things not the same about these men. kit: they're not the same but they come from the same willingness to go to someone who is not always saying easy thing bus is saying something. guy: the market trying to price fix, is it possible? hillary clinton is the frontrunner in the moment. the market in some ways never likes new ideas. hill vi a frontrunnering she's been around, we have known she has presidential ambitions. can you price that sf can you make a meaningful extrapolation and say this will mean x for the u.s. economy? kit: she'll be more interventionist than a moderate republican might be. a right wing view of the u.s. economy would say this isn't

going to be fantastically pro-growth it's going to continue an attempt at economic redistribution and curtailing big companies. but that's absolutely as far as you could possibly take it. sam: and to just add to that, one specific conversation we were having, we have to separate rhetoric from what really happens. guy: yeah, yeah, absolutely. sam: when obama took charge there was a democratic house and democratic senate. and many of these kinds of things that hillary is talking about in her -- and sanders in their pitch, had been in the affordable care act in terms of controlling this. they just never got voted through. even though you had -- everything was democratic. so i think we have to bear that in mind. these are very difficult. there was a lot of bipartisan interest in getting some of this approved but not all of it. anna: why co-these companies, how do they have the ability to stay in the market to put the

prices up? do they have some amazing effectiveness that's become proven? sam: some of these drugs are very effect i. the reality is that when there's no other competition and you buy a product that you're the only manufacturer of, then in the u.s., drug pricing is free. what we see as the list price, a lot of conversations about list price. eli lilly over the past four or five years had an incident whose prices went up 90% on the list place. but the actual net price has gone up 2% or 3% because they fwi a lot of it back in rebates. they're not talking about that. we've written on that but -- anna: very little transparency. guy: but heading up to the eneral election, i remember ed millibrand on this set saying he was going to limit pricing of what hospitals could charge. this is not a new conversation

but it rarely turns into reality. sam: you're leaning against a trend for prices to go up as we get older and get ill at the same time. you're trying to lean against he flow of time or the tide. you may not see if you managed anything. new england that sense it just does go on but how do we put a price on that in terms of looking at what the future means? almost impossible. anna: sam, thank you for joining us. kit stays with us a little bit longer. we'll be right back. guy: coming up, talk is cheap when it comes to the europe.

anna: welcome back. 6:46 in london, 7:46 in paris.

here's the stories you need to know. guy: barclays about to name jes staley as the new c.e.o. staley is the frontrunner for the job. if approved, the appointment could be announced within two weeks. anna: s.a.b. miller doesn't think the latest offer is high enough to begin merger talk. the london-based brewer is also id to view the $67 billion pound offer as too low to extend the deadline of 5:00 p.m. tomorrow london time for a firm bid. guy: leonardo dicap rhee yow's company is joining with paramount to make a movie about the volkswagen cheating scandal. paramount has acquired the rights to a prose po -- proposed book to be written by jack ewing.

he bugget at the top of the market. >> this was a company that was 80% trading, 20% hard assets until 2012. at the top of the cycle they bought extra, changed the face of the company completely so they're 80% hard assets, 20% trading. the whole idea was if there was a downturn in the commodities markets, the trading accruemen would help offset the hard assets. it didn't work that way. the traders were low on the same commodities the mining assets were. so if that was the reason to put this thing together one has to question that strategy. and if you look before the 2012 deal, glencore was earning double digits on call tall.

it was a trading house, basically a good trader. now they're earning low single bimmingts on the -- digits on the capital. >> you low a lot, did you go short? >> i'm a potential purchaser. >> you're a potential purchaser. of what? >> well you have to close out a short position, you have to buy stock. >> ah. >> what moves are they making now? >> they were buying assets at the top of the market, now the commodities have crashed, they're selling assets. does that sound smart to you? >> zinc they cut way back on. there was indication in the market the terminal indicated that the price was going up on zinc. >> if they're getting rid of the asset and the -- and that makes the price go up, they don't benefit from that. that's the problem. again, it's, i'm concerned about a company that's suppose to have had this great trading accruemen

that seems to be buying at the top of the market and selling at the bottom. that doesn't sound smart to me. so i think -- >> until 2012, you'd be hard pressed to find them doing anything that wasn't smart. it was an extraordinary company. what you've laid out makes the argument, they've left their core competency, trading is what they do and they've left that, but this is a big mistake but the first mistack we've seen out of them. >> so they did very, very well in a bull market is what you're saying. >> ok. >> when the markets turned bad, they did not so well. i think that -- at the end of the tai that's the issue. was this just simply a play on rising commodity prices as opposed to a company that made lots of money in both good and bad markets? i think the -- certainly we can question that. >> buck us through glencore one more time. we understand what you think, help me understand how you're positioned. remember, public school girl

from new jersey, hard for me. >> we're not going to comment on our position with glencore, stephanie, but we know the company pretty well. it's a company that was a reasonably high return on capital business, in in a bull market that turn intod a low return on capital, basically below their cost of capital. for the past handful of years, not just the past year, this company was declining in its returns since 2012. and so it's a changed business. it's not a trading house anymore. it's a collection of mines with a trading operation. >> given where it's trading today, we saw things move up. now tell me -- not saying what your position is, but what would you advise me? what should someone do today? >> i would stay away to the commodities base. i think the deflation will continue on hard assets for a while.

anna: let's go back to kit who is with us in the studio. he talked about the balance of real asset and the -- how one was supposed to hedge out the risk of the other and that didn't turn out to be the keas. kit: no, but it's been a long, long market in commodities. traders make money on commodities by being long more ften than short. i think what becomes important is the accumulated debt in order to do a lot of this. if the price has fallen, has it fallen far enough? i don't know. the danger of a macro knock on through this, if they're having to try to sell assets, there are loans that they have to other companies in the same industry, you know, how long does it take to sort of clean the whole thing out so that we don't have to overshoot the price of commozzities to the downside too far and can we please avoid

having something systemic in the mining industry in the way we did in banking. >> we're going to talk about another big story in a moment but at least get your two pence worth on this. at least they controlled the physical side of a market in a way other trading houses can't. isn't there an argument that says he can do that? >> that's what happened with zinc, they're a big player, when they took a bunch of supply out of the market, the price would respond. they don't have that control over all markets. tim: like oil, they're a small player in that, opec has much more power. anna: do you think we've seen the bottom? kit: my fear is it's a series of bottoms that you could see a new low. my fear is we're still getting stories about companies having to purge excess supply, excess

capacity through this, then you get knock on effects through that as that goes on and we've probably got six more months of that before we feel confident and it will be quite volatile. uy: and another question, is drage losing control? there's a creep. anna: slow climb for the euro. guy: are we judging draghi too soon? tom: i think he's said he'd like to see the currency depreciate and that would help. as the chart show, the euro is appreciating and within the last week or two, all of the banks are -- nobody is cutting their forecasts for the euro. people have raised them, about half on them, and others have stayed put. people look at, wasn't that long ago people were talking about seeing parity. that seems to be gone from the onversation.

anna: what's driving this? kit: on a day-to-day basis, you put a chart up against the 10-year differential it correlates annoyingly well on a day-to-day basis. a yore ago it would have done that more with short-term interest rates. it correlates historically over the last 10 years on days when the world is a risky place, they've done well. now when the world is a risk ri place, the ewe row is doing well because europe has foreign assets and on scary days -- days money comes home. the euro no longer goes down because the world is a scary place and it's not finding it easy to go down because the e.c.b. is about to cut rates. so weakening the euro at this point, you're fighting the deficit, the fact that weakening

your currency has to have a curnry -- currency going up and -- going up and there are no takers at the moment. then the lack of something nuclear which would wind it back to the start of the year. draghi can get the euro down he did it at the end of last year, beginning of this year with more buying plus super cocktail moving interest rates. anna: we're in diminishing returns of rhetoric. guy: i guess we haven't teched him. we're going to do something to lower the negative rate -- i guess that's the big test. tom: it will be. the question is when does that come? kit: and you get a sense that doesn't come until the e.c.b. is tested on the upside either by weaker economic day tark deflation coming thru but more particularly, e.c.b. is much more likely to act on dollar trades between 115 and 120 than f it dribbles around here.

anna: thank you kit, and thank you to you as well. guy: that wraps up the first hour of "countdown." we'll be in moscow when we come back. .

anna: a new man in the top job at barclays. close touch name jpmorgan veteran as the new ceo. guy: the longest losing streak in six years. declining moderately. note 67.4 billion pounds for sab miller unlikely to win approval. guy: welcome to "countdown ." i am guy johnson. anna: i am anna edwards. one hour away from the start of european equities trading.

you, what we think the numbers are likely to look like from the get go under an hour's time. weaving negative, the trade factor out of china. how blurred -- how berkeley trades. will be negative, the trade factor out of china. -- how barclays trade. effectssee if barclays how we trade through on the pharma stocks and commodities stocks. we have breaking news. let's go to caroline hyde. the sab miller story. caroline: they have reached an agreement in principle. from sab miller saying that i have reached an agreement on the key terms of a possible recommended offer to inbev, 44 pounds per share increased from yesterday.

cash withper share in a partial alternative available for approximately 41% of the sab miller shares to help some of the large shareholders in sab. now, all cash represents premium millerlly 50% on sab closing before the speculation on the 14th of september. they said it is -- unlisted cashs and 3.778 pounds in for each sab miller share. that is basically a bit of discount at 30 94 sab miller. andve to shareholder perhaps not the tax implications of paid out in cash. also extending the overall deadline for taking this forward. indeed, it seems that bruce a

packed for the -- as they have reached a packed -- pact. and the board will unanimously agree on the offer. finally compromise between the 2 battling brewers. we do see the biggest joining at 44 pounds per share. anna: thank you very much. the latest on the m&a. in the markets, lackluster start here in the european session. chinese stocks fell from a seven-week high after imports -- exports fell more than economists predicted. juliette sally. how have the trade numbers went down in the market? juliette: what we the light trade its moving into the shanghai composite. higher briefly for half an hour

but flat. a little weakness coming through from energy and mining factors as you would expect out of china. also seeing the australian dollar which is heavily linked file in the region. south korean index closing lower by zero point 1%. quite a big switch out of japan. players on energy that pullback in the crude oil and is commodity prices and china trade number impacting in australia. here in hong kong, the hang seng is down by 0.6%. we want to show you some of the stocks with the following in the region and quite a few doing well despite the down day in the region. casinos going very well. macau gaming was better than expected and sharp in japan closed higher by 6.5% on a

report it to make it ¥200 billion from a fund. quite a few big movers. generally the theme of today was lower in asia. anna: thank you. guy: deeper into the trading numbers. tom orlik joins us from beijing. tom, some beating expectations in september. can we started to buy stabilization here? you are right, a guy. a beat on the china export numbers but the good news is exports are still contracting and that is the third month in a row of falling overseas sales for china. divided way should wish to place in august -- which took place in august, italy's and domestic currency terms so that's part of the explanation. if you look to the outlook, the arenumbers on export orders

large and contractionary territory. that's what is a just will three-month of falling exports and probably got some more. anna: what does it mean for the chinese currency. the authorities will be pleased anyway was what they have managed to do with the number or devalue more even though we were told that was not the plan? tom orlik: so, the currency situation with exchange rate is really not sustainable, anna. on the one hand, we have got china central banks burning through foreign exchange reserves to keep the yuan stable. on the other hand, where the yuan is currently is too strong for the export sector. in the medium-term, the central bank is not going to expand national treasure to defend and exchange rate which is choking

off exports. future, theiate signals we have been getting from china's leaders from president xi jinping down israeli this -- is really stability is at the order of the day. we had the deputy governor off central been speaking at the imf meeting last week and he reiterated that message saying they see no case and the economic data for depreciation of the yuan. thank you.rlik, guy: what is happening in the world. let's bring get roger. are you worried about china? roger: is right to be worried in general. if i think it is heading quite serious, the answer is no. what happened to end the past few months has been massively overdone. back andwe will look say why do people get so worked up about it.

anna: because falling growth will not be as much, why do you think the rest of the world is overreacting? roger bootle: all of the above, you have to take account of what happened to the stock market and people in the west and? markets got a really worked up. this falling stocks. -- and people in the west markets got really work up. people sort of conflated they'll fall in the chinese stock market what the underlying problems which we know about and the signs of weakness early this year which we already knew about. it is nothing quite a new. it was not. a stock market bubble bursting and the revelation china is not -- there are weaknesses. it did not raise rates. guy: where we do about china or global growth? fed looking at an economy that's looking ok?

i guess they are playing safety first, aren't they? i expressed that china is ok. who am i? i would not want to bet the country's future. also worried about markets. positionhe underlying not as bad as the markets are worried. the fact it is worried itself constrained on the said. i think the fed made a mistake. if i were in the said or the ork of england --fe -- fed bank of england, i would want to get the rate hike out of the way. i think there's a lot to be said for getting that rate rise out of the way because it is a monkey on your back. people betting so much on when it will happen. i think it does not matter a great deal. anna: we will be talking about how high they will go?

roger bootle: well, you will. to some extent, that is right. the fed or bank of england to assess things. the fundamental factor is a rates have been incredibly low for a very long time. i think that starting to show signs of distortion. i would be wanting to "back to normality -- i would a wanting to start back to normality. lly, not mucha difference. that is true. unless you're going to? race up by a huge amount -- jack up a rates by a huge amount, you have to watch. has been saying that for quite a while and gloopy john's report. gloomy jobs quite

report. would have to see what happens. i suspect the jobs data will prove to be misleading. and the courage to proceed. guy: roger, we will come back to talk about recession. he will be staying with us. we will speak to him again shortly. american may be back at barclays. what you need to know. guy: were going to break down the run heard sab miller, ab inbev bid. a lot of beer. see you in a moment. ♪

guy: it is 7:15 a.m. in london. buy: ab inbev has agreed to

sab miller. the record deal gives the budweiser maker control of about halfof the industry's profit. -- half of the industry's profit. is said to be close to naming a new ceo. according to a person familiar, the bank told regulators he is the front runner. the plumbing could be announced within the next two weeks. makershe luxury good jumping 7% in europe, japan, and the u.s. demand for wines and spirits helped. on luxurycrackdown has hurt exports. guy: back to our beer story. 60 billion pounds is at the scale we think. sab miller taken over by ab inbev. the head on top of this beer

were talking about, the share price. what sab miller close yesterday. when for to open this morning and that is where the deal has been done. when -- we are waiting for it to open this morning and that is where the deal will be. surrounded by pints of beer. caroline hyde has more. caroline: a similar shot, a 21% premium of where sab miller is trading and we will see a pop in the shares. 44 pounds per share is what has been preliminarily agreed upon. and sab miller after weeks of wrangling have managed to come to a compromise i had of the deadline. they have until 5:00 tomorrow to get an agreement. the deadline has been pushed back until october 28. we understand the board would

recommend sab miller, a deal for 44 pounds per share. a slight discount if you want cash and shares. that's for the bigger shareholders of sab miller not have the foot quite such a tax bill if they are paid more heavily in shares rather than cash. if you are in every shareholder at sab miller, you will get for four pounds for every share. that's what is agreed. for every share print interesting not only what to expect in sab miller's shares for what a roller coaster ride since the spike in mid-september when you first learned of a deal. a deal that will bring the juggernauts of the bear market. everyone in three beer sold will be done a buy one company. issues in terms of regulation doesn't this inspire? -- does this inspire? they both have agreements to different companies -- coca-cola

and pepsi. they would not use both and have to selloff a number of assets. perhaps chinese assets, a joint venture held by sab miller, one in the united states as well. to be sold tove get the thumbs-up from regulators? a are likely to see -- we saw spike and the pound. 68 billion pounds is what you need to be potentially looking at going to the market and that will help to drive it higher. people think demand in the pound will drive up that much more. interesting. a deal is struck. down to the wire. tomorrow is the deadline. 44 pounds per share. a hefty premium. all of the speculation around in mid-september. back to you. guy: $3 billion to get it done. former traders will

appear in court in new york in the first u.s. trial to be held on the alleged rigging of libor. for more on the significance, tony errands is here with us. good to see you in the studio. these allegations and they date back to 2006, don't they? the solvent is not seen seem to end any time soon. tony: it does not. the allegations a back to 2006. most of us had not heard of it the barclays was fined at last of american german bottom diamonds and went to parliament as spoke to parliament and stepped down. billion worth of fines about a dozen financial institutions and came to a crescendo in august were tom hayes was convicted in london. the americans will get their chance to see if they can get an eviction. guy: compare and contrast was will get here and what with had on our side.

on the prosecutor side, similar to tom hays. a lot of e-mails about traders joking and instant messages about get of a rate up and celebration. to thell sound familiar fines. what will be different is tom hayes' defense centered on my bosses knew about it and everybody was doing it. that's defense that never seems to work. it did not work. here, they will put a libor on trial. how is it set? an exact science pretty it has changed. back then, banks guess at what they thought that would lend to each other. they were saying it was in the round of possibility and we were now manipulating anything, just making our best guesses. anna: thank you for joining us. tony aarons. of: cpi data in a couple

hours. let's bring back in roger bootle . somethinglation is you have talked about a few times in your life. commodity prices according to goldman sachs will go further lower and disinflation every screaming around the world. china is a part of that conversation as well. how can you raise rates in an apartment? when inflation is so low? roger bootle: we have to see if goldman sachs is right about commodity prices. i suspect they will not to be a commodity prices -- a major collapse of commodity prices from here. central banks are the worries. you have got a real possibility of a spiral developing. as at the moment, not really on the cards. it's might show a slight negative. technically, we will be in deflation but the technical thing.

if you look at the underlying rate of inflation, the core rate is much, much higher that. we are seeing signs of rising wages in both countries. the indicator i would be looking at. probably looking closer. the platforms, will be there for raising rates. anna: brexit is very topical this week. last week, one campaign launched this week another launched. you are not a big fan of europe in the past. are you involved with one of the out campaigns? there are 2? roger bootle: vote to leave. anna: why are there 2? shouldn't they join forces? wide not come together? roger bootle: in the business world, you would not say that. i would hope is that people would bury their differences frankly.

important personalities involved which get in the way. tohink as we get closer where the referendum will be, will find a merging. guy: when will we start hearing facts? roger bootle: sex about what -- sacks about what -- facts about what? guy: whether we should be in or out? not cometle: facts do without a value judgment. the subject, probably many subjects. if you want to find out about the issues, read my book. umm -- anna: the policy vacuum created? policiestle: not just but the reaction of companies. the biggest unknown is what sort of trade dell we will be up to get -- deal with would bank to

get for the eu? people say do not worry. access of the market and the other people say that is not the case. an external tariff and there might be something nasty with us. between those extremes lies the truth. where? we do not know. how damaging is regulation? very bigple who play benefits are leaving tends to put a big value on the cost of excessive regulation. and here is the assumption -- we would resend the regulation. that is not a given. we made come out to rescind and not do it. do with it we would rescidnd? guy: the problem with the argument. andt of hearsay subjectivity and do we, don't we and this whole debate.

we're asking people to make an incredibly important decision. with had campaigns launched and i am hoping whatever the date will be was start to get more clarity. seeingootle: i do not you will get a clear answer. campsll get 2 opposing firing at each other and that will not affect a lot of people. my own view is the coolheaded analysis of the shows is i personally think both the net benefits and net cost are pretty small. anna: and economic decision for you? roger bootle: the bottom line. i think this is a political thing. my contribution would be to say if we close out, not an economic disaster. maybe a small cost. maybe a small gain. ofyou do not like the idea signing up to this political arrangement that it implies,

with a very open choice simply to leave. you?re moving on, aren't no one knows. isuess the conventional view , yes, it would happen. in fact, much less clear than you might think. exactly how scotland would fare outside of the eu, particularly with catalonia which would bank to stay in the you or gained remittance is very difficult. -- and the eu are gain remittance is very difficult. you could do well in scotland. anna: when you like to see a vote? roger bootle: a bit later. we need to the arguments to be fully aired. i would be worried if the prime minister try to bounce this one. we would have to rush. anna: thank you for joining us. capital economics. guy: can president putin pull russia from recession?

andrey kostin will join is very shortly. right here on bloomberg. ♪

guy: it is 7:30 a.m. in london. the stores you need to know. has agreed to buy sab miller. the record dell gives the budweiser maker control of about half of the industry. guy: close to naming jes staley as of the ceo both for joining blue capital. regulators theld front runner for the job if approved, he could be announced within two weeks. anna: china shows no sign of a let-up and the country's

economic slowdown and imports fell. declinesight month of and the longest losing streak in six years. exports above expectations. guy: stocks fell from a seven-week high after imports fell more than economists predicted. juliette saly is standing by in hong kong. juliette: good morning. that trade data has been the investors to look at in asia. we are seeing a pickup in china's state -- chinese stocks. good news from automakers and casino stocks look good in hong kong. a little bit of a switch around. a lot of markets have closed and closed in the red on the disappointing import data out of china and they'll pullback in the crude oil price. we saw the oil sector, the worst performing in the region.

the asia-pacific oil and gas sector down by 2% today. 23 out of the major stocks falling led by santos. 21tainly that data down point 4% and u.s. dollar terms as a pullback in the oil price weighing on the asian region today. anna: thank you. guy: a couple of things in terms of what is happening. half an hour from the start or european equities. sab miller deal front and center. he is having a meaningful impact on asset classes. first of all, the pound as you can see spiking on the back of that deal. the pound is trading higher as caroline hyde has pointed out on the back of the sab deal. where we thing equities will open. london likely to outperform a little bit. most of the main markets here are down. it looks like london will be up. is down.

dax is down by 0.3%. anna: let's talk about russia. and asfrom august lows the conflict in ukraine eases, investors putting money into russian exchange funds. that is from a low base. is russia about experience a rebound? the topic of conversation. ryan chilcote joins us with a banker who has plenty of insight. ryan? bt -- ofis the ceo of btb, russia's second-largest bank. it has been sanctioned by the but the the market -- stock is up nearly 30%. that is the question that andrey kostin will answer. oil has not gone up 30%. our investors warning to russia and russia's banks? think russia is

undervalued. the oil prices are going up and ruble. meeting coming from a with the world bank and what is surprising is the discussion over the world bank, much less concerned about asia -- in and other emerging markets. i think the russian is at the right one. the economy is good and many improvements inside of russia despite negative growth this year. ryan: went you see that changing? -- when do you see it changing? a lot of people saying the recession will be over by next year. andrey kostin: waiting a little bit to see when is the right time to invest in what is happening. or change your mind.

abouta lot of talk now the situation in ukraine easing. where does it fit into your conversation with investors? do they ask about it and are they fairly comfortable? theey kostin: we think that ukrainian effort and more from the [indiscernible] we do not expect any more orders. minimal. worsening in the general is an effect. act of the moment, we do not see any reason. ryan: aery big bank -- very big bank? andrey kostin: we will adjust and we are quite comfortable.

ryan: your operations in ukraine. you have a bank is there that shoe recovered -- that you recapitalize. it is not throw the way good money? andrey kostin: it is not. not new money but our existing loans. our intention in the ukraine. we would like to stay there. the ukrainian government, staying there. quite good right now. ryan: weill get the -- will get reported a and it will say aircraft was brought to down i a missile from -- by a missile from rebel held territory. does it change anything for you? notey kostin: it does matter. it matters about who suffers and the war and we think it is the ukrainian side. it does not change anything. i do not know the reaction of the community. i do not know why it should be russian. at saying it is --

where to syria fit into the conversation with investors? do people bring get up? elated to they easing of sanctions -- maybe help ease sanctions? andrey kostin: whether it would lead to bigger which will be a burden for the russian economy and it is not. and we shall see. i think the russian action in syria is pretty much in line with the national war and everything. west?in relation with the sanctions, the people said maybe they would be eased in january? andrey kostin: i do not expect it. working from the presumption. central-bankrstand

declined in the request you may for a long time funding because they said your bank is sanctioned so it is dangerous to lend you money. isn't that accurate and does it annoy you? we do not have any problem with dollar liquidity for a number of reasons. first of all, our population diverted much of the ruble before it became very volatile. a dollars.end much most companies do not prefer to put their money in dollars for the same reason. rubles.emand in we are comfortable if things change, we will think about it. ?yan: how do you feel about vtb there was a lot of talk about recapitalizing. do not needn: we anymore. we will talk about it. we do not need the capital.

cannot do anything. we will have to wait. write a bank ease or -- ryan: ease or pause, do you think the central-bank will resume cutting rates at the end of the month? isn't that what you will like to see? is reasonable it to take it down to the level. ryan: everybody wants to know what will happen to the ruble? andrey kostin: we think ruble will not change too much. roughly about the same. goldman sachs said at the low oil prices we are seeing right now could be around for 15 years. what does it mean for russia? andrey kostin: i know the forecast of the world bank is different. we've already adjusted for the price. i do not think it will go much lower than that.

debt write a bank be painful for the russian economy -- ryan: it would be painful for the russian economy? andrey kostin: i do not know why. it would be reasonable. ryan: russian second-largest airliner is going through a lot of problems and said they should go into bankruptcy. you have lent it a lot of money. can you update us? andrey kostin: we definitely connected the aircraft in russia. the rest ofdea is the company but [indiscernible] the passengers. ns were in thea form of -- and western aircraft. the russian company and the rest of the world.

you very much, andrey kostin. russia'sf vtb, second-largest bank. i asked about sanctions and he said he does not think that will heeased come january and does not think goldman sachs prediction of lower oil prices for 15 years. guy: thank you very much. ryan chilcote. anna: next -- more on the beer deal of that has moved the pound. ab inbev has agreed to buy sab miller. what all does it mean? more on that. ♪

guy: it is 744 a.m. in london. the stories you need to know. has agreed to buy sab miller. record deal against the

budweiser maker control of about half of the industry's profits. guy: barclays is close to naming jes staley as ceo. he was with blue mountain capital. a cordial person familiar, the bank told regulators the front runner could be appointed within the next couple of weeks. anna: no sizable lead up in china's economic slow down as imports sale 17.7% in september. the longest losing streak in six years. exports were above expectations. -ab inbev deal. we want to know what kind of premium you could get. 21%, 44 is the price we are at.

thomas joins us. what clinched the price? what is going on? withter: it has to do price. the back-and-forth of negotiations and we initially saw an informal offer of maybe 38 and then 40 and then 42. increments in small and it is good to see 44 area sab is happy. under tremendous pressure to agree. anna: the deadline was looming and quicker action toward a price area what does it mean for shareholders? thomas buckley: well, part of the company that has always been focus on profits and value generation over a period of time and fascinating. ab inbev acquired and delivered extremely quickly.

done?s it a deal is the deal going to be affected by regulators? a deal but kind of preliminary at this stage. what now happens? thomas buckley: because the deal is been around, the consideration from their early stage including the u.s. where as a be miller will probably have to sell a stake in miller-course. and also in china with china resources. and it would be acquired by the chinese government or a third party. all of the consideration. anna: would've talked in the past about the culture clash that could be waiting as of all businesses are brought together. has quite a reputation for cost cutting. and as a be trying to get ahead

of it. thomas buckley: that is true. ab inbev has been about cost-cutting. sab miller in recent times focused extensively on tradition and the fun of trading a beer. it will be fun to see them integrate. digital fun of -- fun of drinking beer. american,staley, an is tipped to being named the ceo of barclays. let's bring in stephen morris who joins us now on set. why pick a u.s. investment banker to something in the past? a real change from the experience? reporter: complete different from their previous ceo, a britt. seen as aly kennedy vote of confidence.

when john mcfarlane came, he was in the executive chairman and much friendlier to the investment bank. jenkins was more hostile. we heard mcfarlane visited the office and tall to the traders and dealers in celsius. --s dectalk to the traders talked to the traders and dealers and salesmen. guy: where would we put this guy? stephen morris: toward the diamond end but not as flashy and brash. theond clashed with regulators. that is well barclays wants to avoid. he will be aware if he does the top job. he is a second jpmorgan graduate, if you will to out and take over u.k. bang this year. bill winters taking over standard job. this something they u.k. board

like about jpmorgan. strategyt kind of about this need to balance different size of the banking the business and negotiated with regulators? stephen morris: one of the isticisms at antony jenkins he did not properly understand that investment banking and found it to heart to get to grip with the cost that and found it too hard to get the grip -- and found it too hard to get to grip with the costs. the u.s. has a very strong track record of buying lehman brothers. a new york will probably help with that and the new regulations coming in europe , other decisions to make about the commercial and retail bank and african unit. anna: is is still coming from the u.k. or european pacific? stephen morris: the bank of england is set to report a

consultation paper. we have to hope that jes staley is up on regulation. guy: a lot to read up on. how -- the team? a hedge fund which is interesting. usually you bring a bunch of and the team is in place> tipped as being an internal candidate if they go this way and a good finance director so i cannot imagine they will want to replace him unless he goes. john mcfarland is a bold chairman and would definitely have his say evenly steps back to nonexecutive. he will have a say on strategic decisions are made. i do know if he will bring additional people with him. that had a massive rebound. let's hope so. anna: thank you. stephen morris. guy: what were watching for the rest of the day?

german data. what will it tell us? to hans nichols. she is standing by. inflation, stagflation, the debate. we got earlier was a confirmation we had deflation at 0.2% for september. it was a confirmation. before we do the vw numbers, to the east and a look of china. exports a little better than expected. when you look at the imports out of china, why there's so much queasiness inside of germany. the imports falling off a cliff much worse than expected down 17% on the month and that brings us to vw. her current expectations and that is what we want to look at. that is taken a battering. all the way down to 12 percent last month. the survey expectation is 6% and the reading and just about two

hours. a few months ago, february, north of 50%. we'll seen vw fall off a cliff. with not seen it happen -- we have not seen it happen with the ef survey. is just financial services. members get surveyed. we do see a bit of divergence but we have seen some negative numbers come out area i always want to say -- and pronounce it to the american and german way. i will yield to you guys because you are my social betters. anna: you are just showing off. guy: he is a hybrid. anna: he is showing off. that sounds nice. have you had a call yet from leonardo dicaprio as you to play a cameo in his movie?

hans: i of known for my directorial abilities. -- i have been known for my directorial abilities. sidexample, i know which is better of yours which sometimes our directors do not know. i know what is better. guy: i think both sides are better. anna: he is closer and have the right line. diving is very day -- guy: very dangerous. jonathan ferro is here. you watch hans nichols doing his jokes which seemed to be proliferating at the moment. mine was always a vodka. w in a vodka -- the v and w in a vodka. every body with experience in german has the story. m&a you do not speak german. jonathan: i do not. the debt story with all of the m&a going on is interesting.

sab miller, a lot of debt that has to be rates. when you decide to buy a house, if you can get the rate, that the push you over the line. you want if a lot of the dealmaking is frontloaded ahead of the federal reserve. knowsussion for a man who about fixed income, stephen major. a major, major call of 1.5% on the 10 year next year. that is the topic of a big discussion after the break. anna: jonathan ferro with "on his own move." -- "on the move." ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your morning brief. and megadeal. sab miller for 68 billion pounds. a record deal. rate, just fed jobs rate. -- fed jobs rate. heading back to austria, justley is set to name daily as its new ceo. is the search finally over? -- three bigs

stories. but the 100 dead flat. a couple of stocks to look at. let's get to the market open with caroline hyde. caroline: the longest winning streak in european stocks since july today. on the downward side as we see that data overflow from data -- from asia. down 17.7%. if you're looking at the dollar value, up 20%. 11 straight months of decline for chinese imports. it highlights concerns about domestic in china. we are seeing the cac up 10%. slowly but surely we're likely to see a little bit of money coming off the table when it comes to equity